SOC 504: Writing a replication/extension paper · soc 504: writing a replication/extension paper 5...
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SOC 504: Writing a replication/extension paper April 20, 2017 Acknowledgements: This handout draws inspiration from materials by Kosuke Imai and Gary King. Contributors to prior versions: Elisha Cohen. The most important reference for your paper is Publication, Publi- cation by Gary King. 1 Note in particular points 4-9 in the Elements of 1 King, G. (2006). Publication, publi- cation. PS: Political Science & Politics, 39(01):119–125 the Paper section. The article itself is a great guide to writing a clear and concise paper and you should absolutely read it a second time before beginning to write. A key piece of advice from the supplement to that article is: This is probably the first paper you are writing that is not about you: Explaining how hard you worked, that you included everything the professor asked for, and how smart you are are now all irrelevant distractions. Your goal instead is to construct a paper that makes people want to read it. Your title, abstract, and paper each must focus on what others will learn if they devote the time to read it. You must answer “Whose mind are you going to change about what?”, such as by starting the abstract with “In this paper, we demonstrate that. . . ” (emphasis, ours) I will add to this that the goal is to make a contribution to the schol- arly literature, not to do a replication project. Thus, while replicating the authors’ results are necessary to complete your extension the bulk of the paper should be about the nature of your contribution. Impor- tantly this is now your paper and not the original authors’, so you decide what parts of the problem are interesting. This is the essential pivot in writing a replication/extension paper. Important components to an empirical paper • Lay out your story. 2 2 This includes whose mind are you going to change about what, but also establishing simple claims or providing an empirical puzzle. • Clearly state your estimand. • Explain your model(s) 3 3 “For the ith student in class c and school s, we can write (2) y i sc = X 0 s β + n sc α + μ c + η s + e isc where y isc is pupil i’s score, X s is a vector of school characteristics, sometimes including functions of enrollment, and n sc is the size of class c in school s. The term μ c is an i.i.d. random class component, and the term η s is an i.i.d. random school component. The remaining error component e isc is specific to pupils.” (Angrist and Lavy, 1999) – Mathematically write out your model – Describe covariates and model assumptions • Explicitly show your reader how the paper is organized 4 4 “The remainder of this paper describes our approach to interpreting and presenting statistical results. We begin by formalizing the problem of statistical interpretation (Section 2)...” (King et al., 2000) – Give your readers a roadmap of the paper (what’s to come), clearly signpost the argument – Use headers that make claims, not just provide topics. – Use different font styles, bullet points or enumeration when necessary, to distinguish important sections
Transcript of SOC 504: Writing a replication/extension paper · soc 504: writing a replication/extension paper 5...
SOC 504 Writing a replicationextension paperApril 20 2017
Acknowledgements This handout draws inspiration from materialsby Kosuke Imai and Gary King Contributors to prior versions ElishaCohen
The most important reference for your paper is Publication Publi-cation by Gary King1 Note in particular points 4-9 in the Elements of 1
King G (2006) Publication publi-cation PS Political Science amp Politics39(01)119ndash125
the Paper section The article itself is a great guide to writing a clearand concise paper and you should absolutely read it a second timebefore beginning to write A key piece of advice from the supplementto that article is
This is probably the first paper you are writing that is not about youExplaining how hard you worked that you included everything theprofessor asked for and how smart you are are now all irrelevantdistractions Your goal instead is to construct a paper that makespeople want to read it Your title abstract and paper each must focuson what others will learn if they devote the time to read it You mustanswer ldquoWhose mind are you going to change about whatrdquo such asby starting the abstract with ldquoIn this paper we demonstrate that rdquo(emphasis ours)
I will add to this that the goal is to make a contribution to the schol-arly literature not to do a replication project Thus while replicatingthe authorsrsquo results are necessary to complete your extension the bulkof the paper should be about the nature of your contribution Impor-tantly this is now your paper and not the original authorsrsquo so youdecide what parts of the problem are interesting This is the essentialpivot in writing a replicationextension paper
Important components to an empirical paper
bull Lay out your story2 2 This includes whose mind are yougoing to change about what but alsoestablishing simple claims or providingan empirical puzzle
bull Clearly state your estimand
bull Explain your model(s) 3
3 ldquoFor the ith student in class c andschool s we can write
(2) yisc = Xprimesβ + nscα + microc + ηs + εisc
where yisc is pupil irsquos score Xs isa vector of school characteristicssometimes including functions ofenrollment and nsc is the size of classc in school s The term microc is an iidrandom class component and theterm ηs is an iid random schoolcomponent The remaining errorcomponent εisc is specific to pupilsrdquo(Angrist and Lavy 1999)
ndash Mathematically write out your model
ndash Describe covariates and model assumptions
bull Explicitly show your reader how the paper is organized 4
4 ldquoThe remainder of this paper describesour approach to interpreting andpresenting statistical results We beginby formalizing the problem of statisticalinterpretation (Section 2)rdquo (King et al2000)
ndash Give your readers a roadmap of the paper (whatrsquos to come)clearly signpost the argument
ndash Use headers that make claims not just provide topics
ndash Use different font styles bullet points or enumeration whennecessary to distinguish important sections
soc 504 writing a replicationextension paper 2
For this class we will be loosely following the formatting guide-lines of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS)This is an important general audience scholarly journal which uses arather short paper form You can refer to their website for more infor-mation5 We have included some of the most salient details below 5 httpwwwpnasorgsiteauthors
preparationxhtml
Article Format
The key advantage of the PNAS format is that it imposes a usefulstructure on the article format which prioritizes a quick statement ofthe importance of the problem followed by a more detailed statementof the methods
Figure 1 The PNAS format demon-strated with an image from a paperwritten by Melissa Sands a graduatestudent at Harvard in PNAS
bull Title Page Include on the title page all contributing authors in al-phabetical order6 You should also include a significance statement
6 Haggling over author order is a hardpart of academic collaborations Forthis everyone should contribute equallyand you should go in alphabetical orderacknowledging that fact
in the title page a 120-word-maximum statement about the signif-icance of their research paper written at a level understandable toan undergraduate-educated scientist outside your field of specialty
bull Main Text The PNAS format does not require and in fact is tooshort to include a detailed literature review You should howevercomment on the relevance and significance of your work
The main text usually include following sections
ndash Abstract Provide an abstract of no more than 250 words onpage 2 of the manuscript
ndash Introduction quickly establish the problem and its importanceto the field
ndash Materials and Methods in this section you need to describe thedata and methods you used
ndash Results the core results of the paper
ndash Discussion usually the last page discuss the implicationslimitationsof the paper
Writing short versions of things is hard If you want good exam-ples look at papers in Nature and Science which have to establishthe stakes of a problem very quickly7 There is always a tempta- 7 Two we like in particular Salganik
et al (2006) and King et al (2014)tion here to write for someone who already knows the literature-essentially confirming that you have also read it by reciting theshibboleth But you want instead to summarize the broad strokesfor a literature who doesnrsquot know it- establishing why we shouldcare and why this is an exciting area
bull The website provides more details on the contents of each section8 8 httpwwwpnasorgsiteauthors
preparationxhtmlbull Here is a sample of recent social science publications in PNAS
You can follow this link to find some papers and get a sense of therelative length of each section9 9 httpwwwpnasorgcontentby
sectionSocial20Sciences
soc 504 writing a replicationextension paper 3
Supplemental Information
You may include a document of supplemental information containingadditional details which the paper does not have room for Hereyou can include details necessary to replicate your results and ifyou like more extended discussions of robustness checks or othermethodological details
You should also include your data file and replication code for allresults in the article These will be helpful for the group reviewingyour work
Stylistic Formatting
bull Word Processing You can use wither Word LATEXor R Markdownto write your paper If you use LATEXor R Markdown use BibTeXto compile the bibliography
bull Paper Length Following two ways to make sure that you arewithin this limit
ndash If you use WORD to write your paper PNAS put a six-pagelength cap and total characters 39000 on the submitted worddocument
1 Generate a pre-submission copy of your word documentfollowing the guidelines here
2 Submit your paper to PNASrsquos page length estimation web-site and make sure that you pass their test
ndash If you use LATEXto format you paper PNAS has their own tem-plate Download their template here or use Overleaf to writeyour paper online at this website If you download a local tem-plate put the decompressed files in the template to the folder ofyour tex file A help file is here
With the template you should be able to generate a PNAS-stylepdf document Make sure that your pdf document is within 6
pages (excluding title page)
bull Section Formatting Be sure to include the required sections in themain text
bull Tables and Figures Clear and informative tables and figures arevital to communicate your findings Here are a few guidelines
1 Include only the most important tables and figures in the mainpaper Any table or figure included should be referenced anddiscussed Additional tables and figures can be included insupplementary materials
soc 504 writing a replicationextension paper 4
2 All tables and figures should be numbered and referencedappropriately in the article
3 Include detailed captions so that each table and figure canbe understood on itrsquos own The reader should be able to fullyunderstand the tables and figures without needing to refer backto the text Be sure to state in the caption what you want thereader to take away from the figure If you find yourself unableto write a clear statement of what you want the reader to takeaway- you should reconsider whether the table or figure isnecessary
4 Think critically about your tables and figures so that they areinterpretable to someone without your expertise Labels shouldbe understandable (eg variable names are clear) Use legendstitles axis labels judiciously to communicate your results
minus80 minus70 minus60 minus50 minus40 minus30
000
005
010
015
020
Estimated inminussample average treatment effect for the treated
Den
sity
Raw data Matcheddata
Point estimate of raw data
Figure 2 Kernel density plot (asmoothed histogram) of point estimatesof the in-sample ATT of the DemocraticSenate majority on FDA drug approvaltime across 262143 specifications Thesolid line presents a density plot of theMLEs of ATT using the matched dataset whereas the dashed line is based onthe raw data The vertical arrow showsthe point estimate from CarpenterrsquosModel 1 based on the raw data Theestimate does not match Carpenterrsquosestimate exactly because it is on a dif-ferent scale and also because of theslightly different set of predictors usedas discussed above The figure showsthat ATT estimates are considerablymore sensitive to model specificationusing the raw data as compared withthe preprocessed matched data (FromHo et al (2007))
0
25
50
75
100
028 029 030 031 032 033Batting average
dens
ity
Hank Aaron
Mike PiazzaMike Piazza
Hank Aaron
0
25
50
75
100
028 029 030 031 032 033Batting average
dens
ity
Posterior Probability of Batting Average
Figure 3 An example using all ggplotdefaults (left) and customized aesthetics(right) Robinson (2017)httpvarianceexplainedorgr
bayesian_ab_baseball
Figures and Tables
bull All figures and tables need detailed and informative captions soyour reader can understand them without referring back to themain text (see figure 2)
bull All included figures and tables need to be referenced and inter-preted in the document
bull Every figure and table in the appendix needs to be mentioned inthe main text so the reader knows what and where they are 10
10 Complete summary statistics areavailable in the Appendix in Table 1
bull Graphical defaults are not necessarily best (see figure 3)
ndash Legends can take up unnecessary space as well as make figuresharder to read Alternatively try annotating directly onto thefigure
ndash The grey background and gridline defaults of ggplot can bechanged
ndash Labels can be rotated to be more legible
ndash Proofread to ensure font size and the plot size as a whole isreadable
ndash Donrsquot let anythig be cut-off This includes titles and labels
bull Make sure positioning of the figure within the document is correctDonrsquot let things float weirdly to another page or have too muchwhitespace
bull When possible make your figures decipherable if printed in blackand white
soc 504 writing a replicationextension paper 5
Writing
bull Write for a broad audience and general interest Limit jargon andwrite clearly and concisely
bull Your readers may not be familiar with the original replicationpaper or the literature in general Give your reader enough back-ground to understand how your analysis fits in
bull Tell the reader whatrsquos at stake Why does the question matterHow do your findings inform what we think about whatrsquos atstake Whorsquos mind are you going to change about what
bull PNAS format still needs some background information (eg shortconcise literature review) and proper citations
bull Your paper should first set-up the original paper you replicatedthen clearly describe how you build and deviate from this
bull Make sure to weave together your arguments and your supportinganalysis on the backend This is your last chance to highlight yourfindings and show the reader whatrsquos at stake Leave the readerwith a strong conclusion
Whatrsquos a poster session
Poster sessions are a great way to get feedback on an ongoing project11 11 This section owes a lot Kosuke ImairsquosldquoHow to Make a Poster for SocialScience Researchrdquo handout httpimaiprincetoneduteaching
filesHowToPosterpdf
You put up a visual aid of your results (the poster) and then pitch theproject repeatedly to the passers-by typically summarizing the en-tire work in under 2 minutes Believe us- nothing cements the keyfeatures of a piece of work like being forced to repeatedly explain it
bull Your Poster is a Visual Aid Your poster is not intended to beread it is a visual aid to help you explain your argument Thus itshould have way less text than you might imagine One of Bran-donrsquos favorite posters contains very little text (see Figure 4) Thisalso means you are likely to write in short phrases rather thancomplete sentences
Adoption of Jihadi Ideology by Islamic ClericsRich Nielsen Harvard University Iacute httppeoplefasharvardedu˜rnielsen
Extensive network
Limited network
Insider career
Outsider career
Expediency
Credibility
Not Jihad
Jihad
ldquoItrsquos really all about trying to study with the prominent sheikhsand getting some kind of ijaza [certificate] from them if you canYou just try to get into peoplersquos networksrdquo
Theory
Abstract Islamic clerics with limited educational networks are more likely to adopt militant Jihadi ideology
Cleric writings
internet
lthtmlgt اجلهاد يف سبيل اهللا lthtmlgt scrape
جهاد
سبيل
اهللا
clean and stem
جهاد
سبيل
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model text
document score(s)
cleric score
times 91
times 29430
Cleric writings
modified naive
Bayes classifier
A B
training set
document score =sum
i logP(wi|A)wiP(wi|B)wi
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Mahmoud
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Hanifa
Presence
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Want to
Specific
Concern
Yourself
Families
At
Dhar
Can
Knowing
Drink
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Such as
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Adam
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Hear
In other words
For
Lack
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Came
Optical
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I
Sharif
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Terms
Then
If
Bad
Useful
His life
Mark
Seen
Halt
OneNo
About us
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Hanbal
And followers
Take
I heard
Kara
Comment
Find
Age
Because
Dispute
To be
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Leave
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Foot
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Egypt
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When
And messengers
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Osman
Required
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Said
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Almighty
Suspicion
Out
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Meaning
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Is called
Kitten
Will
See
A
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I
Roy
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Entry
Nuha
Sometimes
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Makes
Duty
The mind
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Six
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Shafei
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Trade
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Proven
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Neighborhood
Provided that
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Take
Reminus
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Solve the
Blood
Abbas
Part
Adultery
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And only
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Country
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Aisha
Guidance
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Clear
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Prevents
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Things
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Five
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Men
Time
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Doctrine
The answer
Majah
Nonminus
Women
Children
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Khaled
Satan
Full
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Sunan
Ban
Old
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Existing
Directed by
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And blessings
Ask
WillBack
Thread
Raise
First
Especially
What
Cow
Messages
Episode
During the
Secrecy
About
Speech
Curse
Tirmidhi
True
Almighty
Note
Voice
UsurySecond
Intention
Save
Sun
Truth
Paradise
Period
Wear
Ras
I want
Half
Building
Young
Answer
Amount
But
GoldTotal
Owner
For
Mosques
Disease
Necessary
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For example
Food
Be
Days
Place
Weak
Back
You
Eating
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Links
Valid
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Do
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David
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Ahmed
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Sacred
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Quoting
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Means
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Bass
Ten
ManTime
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Her husbandWomen
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Jurisprudential
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Inn
It
Follow
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By virtue of
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Most of them
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Acknowledges
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God
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Know
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Show
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The Messenger
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According to
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Subminus
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Safe
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Badr
On behalf of
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Other
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Revelation
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His brothers
Raina
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Face
Check
The facts
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Were it not for
Nullity
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Some
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We want
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Sheikhs
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Order
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I
More
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Country
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We know
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Jurisprudence
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Hamid
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Enlarge
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Mahmoud
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Pursuant to
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Massoud
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Estimate
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Prevent
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Hatred
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More
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The contrary
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Ashraf
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Between them
Provided
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As
The pretext of
Salah
Latecomers
Place
Hanifa
Presence
Hearing
Want to
Specific
Concern
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Families
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Dhar
Can
Knowing
Drink
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There are
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Fear
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Different
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The best
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Adam
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In other words
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I
Sharif
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If
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Seen
Halt
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About us
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Hanbal
And followers
Take
I heard
Kara
Comment
Find
Age
Because
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The following
Ring
Cut
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Agreed
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Possible
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Foreign
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For nonminus
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Required
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Saad
Years
Comes
Found
Contract
To imitate
Get
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The establishment of
Other
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A means
Has
Pay
Land
Leave
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Very
Desires
First
Often
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The unseen
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Treatment
Sin
Not
Request
The said
Account
Uncle
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Occurs
Combines
The
City
Great
Yam
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Love
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Kaaba
Lead
Close
Must
Foot
Back
Disposal
Wife
Egypt
Hit
When
And messengers
Must
Osman
Required
Grandfather
Said
Deal
Fixed
Language
Questions
Almighty
Suspicion
Out
Business
The day
Meaning
Full
The public
Virtue
Is called
Kitten
Will
See
A
Is located
Read
I
Roy
Up
Shows
Entry
Nuha
Sometimes
Status
Makes
Duty
The mind
I know
Six
Something
Feast
Preferred
HappyMeans
Character
Matt
Sins
Seven
Event
Should be
Question
Shafei
Recent
Means
In
And so on
Out
Trade
Hand
Graduation
Proven
Back
Whether
When
Relationship
Solution
Behind
Project
Problem
CameGo
Neighborhood
Provided that
Around him
Take
Reminus
Period
Solve the
Blood
Abbas
Part
Adultery
Nasser
Affect
Prayers
Four
The time
Months
Return
End
Things
He wanted
And only
Calls for
Sin
Country
Not
Aisha
Guidance
Good
Parental
Prophecy
Is
Well
Clear
Word
Prevents
And then
Of religion
Out
The third
Things
Do
Of
Pronunciation
Link
The intended
Good
Five
Born
The original
Name
Wage
Passport
Increase
Likely
Men
Time
Is
Small
Travel
I hope
Innovation
And Prevention
Doctrine
The answer
Majah
Nonminus
Women
Children
Permissible
Create
Khaled
Satan
Full
True
Sunan
Ban
Old
Enters
DoorMorocco
Existing
Directed by
And because
To be
And blessings
Ask
WillBack
Thread
Raise
First
Especially
What
Cow
Messages
Episode
During the
Secrecy
About
Speech
Curse
Tirmidhi
True
Almighty
Note
Voice
UsurySecond
Intention
Save
Sun
Truth
Paradise
Period
Wear
Ras
I want
Half
Building
Young
Answer
Amount
But
GoldTotal
Owner
For
Mosques
Disease
Necessary
Repentance
For example
Food
Be
Days
Place
Weak
Back
You
Eating
Daybreak
DeprivedRoad
Directed by
Links
Valid
Dead
Do
And companions
Eg
Chatter
Al
David
Instinct
Ahmed
Hand
Good
Night
Elimination
For saying
Image
Month
Sale
Honorable
Noble
Take
Hair
Place
Reading
Women
Be
Collection
Water
Three
Critical
Woman
The best
Person
Are
Sacred
Need
Fasting
Up
Quoting
Bukhari
House
Means
Yes
Forbidden
Pray
Ramadan
Bass
Ten
ManTime
MaySource
Narrated byMustAge
HumanImam
Money
Mosque
QuranHajj
Zakat
Her husbandWomen
minusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusltlt gtgtJihadi Not Jihadi
Word Frequency
aaaa
= 1250
= 1500
= 11000= 12000
Measurement
1 The clerics who ultimately adoptedJihadi ideology had a more limited ed-ucational network
2 Career paths are correlated withideology Non-Jihadi clerics havemore prestigious appointments Ji-hadi clerics spend more time inprison
non-JihadiJihadi
Number of appointments
Den
sity
0 2 4 6 8
00
02
04
06
08
JihadinonminusJihadi
Cleric Jihad score
Ref
eren
ces
to p
rison
minus006 minus004 minus002 000 002 004
05
1015
2025
Findings
Figure 4 Rich Nielsenrsquos Polmeth 2012
poster on a portion of his dissertationwork Note how little text there is
bull How to Make a Poster Some notes on designing a poster withbeamer (powerpoint such as for Ianrsquos poster (5) reviewed in pre-cept) We can think of creating in roughly the following steps
Within- and Between-Group Inequality Looking Beyond the Variance
ReferencesMcLanahan Sara 2004 ldquoDiverging destinies How children are faring under the second
demographic transitionrdquo Demography 41(4)607-627Western Bruce Deirdre Bloome and Christine Percheski 2008 ldquoInequality among American
families with children 1975-2005rdquo American Sociological Review 73903-920
AcknowledgmentsResearch reported in this poster was supported by The Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute
of Child Health amp Human Development of the National Institutes of Health under Award Number T32HD007163 The content is solely the responsibility of the author and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health
IanLundbergPrincetonUniversity
Has the rise in single parenthood affected aggregateinequality Prior literature using global measures ofinequality suggests a minor role yet distinct processesmay operate at the top and bottom Using CPS data toevaluate changes in the 9050 and 5010 income ratiosI find that the growth in single-parent families isassociated with increased lower-tail income inequality
Changing family structure explains about half of the risein lower-tail income inequality but almost none of theincrease in upper-tail income inequality
Prior literature demonstrates a robust associationbetween single parenthood and poverty yet suggeststhat family structure is unrelated to inequality I findthat the conclusion depends on the chosen measure ofinequality while family structure is unrelated to upper-tail income inequality it explains about half of thegrowth in lower-tail inequality
More broadly these findings confirm the need fordistributional methods in the study of inequality anddemonstrate re-weighting methods as a conceptuallysimple yet analytically flexible method for futuredistributional work
Prior research has argued that growing family incomeinequality is driven by two forces inequality in personalincomes and inequality in the pooling of those incomeswithin families By decomposing the variance of logfamily incomes Western Bloome and Percheski (2008)argue that the former is dominant most of the rise ininequality has occurred within groups defined byeducation and family structure
Variance decompositions measure inequality with asingle parameter (the variance) which characterizes theentire distribution However family structure haschanged the most among the most disadvantaged(McLanahan 2004) which suggests that lower-tailinequality may be more strongly affected by familystructure than upper-tail inequality To the extent thatvariances are influenced by outliers they may captureupper-tail inequality and miss lower-tail inequality
Overview DataandMethods
Background
SummaryofDecomposition
Conclusion
DepartmentofSociologyampOfficeofPopulationResearchilundbergprincetonedu
CurrentPopulationSurvey(CPS)1968-2013bull 2269326children(asymp49333year)bull 06excludedformissingdatabull RepresentativeofAmericanchildrenunder18(weighted)
Methods1 Stratify respondents by family structure and labor supply2 Re-weight to the 1968 distribution of relevant covariates3 Calculate inequality in the counterfactual population
Benefit We can compute any measure of inequality (not justthe variance) on the weighted counterfactual distribution
Key assumption Changing the distribution of family structureswould have no indirect effects on income inequality
Figure2Counterfactualinequalitytrends
Results
Figure3GrowthinUSfamilyincomeinequality1968-2013
Figure1Trendsinfamilystructureandlaborsupply
43 6132 3440 345 240
10203040506070
9050 income ratio 5010 income ratio
Perc
ent c
hang
e 1
968-
2013
ObservedCounterfactual No change in marriageCounterfactual No change in marriage or labor supplyCounterfactual Fixed income distribution only subgroup proportions change
Figure 5 Poster from Ian created usingPowerPoint
1 Begin with a Beamer template that makes a poster of the correctdimensions A0 (331 times 468 inches) We recommend over-leafcom as a general source of Beamer poster templates If youwant to have a specific template to use here is a link to a ver-sion of Rebeccarsquos poster (6) with content removed on Overleaf
soc 504 writing a replicationextension paper 6
if you use make sure to change some of the aesthetics so thateach poster looks different
Poster ExampleRebecca Johnson
Princeton University Department of Sociology
Important DefinitionsTwo main types of financial formulas that a state uses to allocatemoney to local education agencies (LEArsquos) to finance special educationservices State contribution makes up sim40-50 of special educationfinancing with federal sim10-15 and local revenue sim40bullWeighting financing states allocate more money to schooldistricts the more students the district places in special educationEach special education student is weighted as a multiple (eg 13)of a regular education student for funding allocations
bullCapitation financing states allocate a fixed amount of moneyto school districts that is not sensitive to the of students thedistrict places in special education by basing funding on generalstudent enrollment rather than specific placement into specialeducation
Whatrsquos the question
Does a statersquos switch to capitation financing where districts are no longerfinancially rewarded for each additional child placed special educationappear to cause a decrease in rates of special education placement If sohow does the magnitude of that decrease vary by district based on theracial and socioeconomic composition of its students
Why does it matter
bull Special education enrolls 10 to 20 of public school studentsbullExisting sociology research focuses on how an individual studentrsquos
attributes predict special education placement net of the studentrsquostrue disability (eg African-American males facing a higher risk ofplacement than white students at same levels of learning impairment)bullHow study addresses focuses on a policy context that shapesplacement net of disability status rather than an individual attribute
bullExisting economics research focuses on how fiscal incentives built intoinsurance impact diagnoses in medical care(eg upcoding based onreimbursement rates) less investigation of how fiscal incentives builtinto school funding regimes impact diagnoses children receive in theschool systemcarry with them into medical carebullHow study addresses focuses on fiscal incentives for diagnosingor not diagnosing childhood disabilities via placement into specialeducation under a specific category
Data sources
Dependent variables all by yearstate from 2000 to 2011Percentage of students enrolled Numerator NCES Common Core data onin special education IDEA Part B (3-21) recipients
Denominator NCES total public school studentsIndependent variables all by yearstate from 2000 to 2011Financing formula OSEP and NASDE 50-state survey of financing formulas
Confirmed via legislative statutesControls State unemployment rate median family income BLS ACS NCESFRPL-eligible students
1 State variation in fiscal incentivesFigure Map of distribution of financing formulas show that capitation financing is not confined toparticularly politically conservative or high-poverty regions The heat map of special education prevalencerates before any policy changes with green indicating lower rates white as the median and darker redindicating higher rates shows generally higher rates on the East Coast but particularly high rates in thispre-policy period in two of the weighting states that switch to capitation (NJ and West Virginia)
Finance category
Capitation entire time
Switched from capitation to weighting
Switched from weighting to capitation
Weighting entire time 100
125
150
175
Percentage of students placed in special education
2 Does switch to capitation causedecrease in special education rates
Approach DID treatment states = weighting states that switch to capi-tation control states = weighting states that donrsquot switch
Yit = α + β1 lowast treatmentstate(1 = yes 0 = no)+β2 lowast posttreatmentperiod(1 = yes 0 = no)+
β3 lowast treatmentstate lowast posttreatmentperiod + γ lowastXit + εit
(1)
Xit vector of controls Quantity of interest β3 Post-treatment period is defined as years after 2 out of 3states passed capitation
Treatment x minus0860lowastlowastlowast minus0950lowastlowastlowast
post-tx period (0252) (0267)
State clustered se Yes YesControls included No Yes
Note lowastplt01 lowastlowastplt005 lowastlowastlowastplt001Controls (all stateyear) percentage of studentsreceiving free or reduced price lunch (FRPL)unemployment rate median household income(logged) population (in millions) 11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Year (spring of school year)
Per
cent
age
of s
tude
nts
plac
ed in
spe
cial
edu
catio
n
GroupControl weighting states with no change
Treatment weighting state that passed capitation
Figure The graph highlights that states that switch from weighting tocapitation have higher levels than weighting states that donrsquot switch beforethe policyrsquos passage and seem to experience the sharpest decrease inrates in the year the policy goes into effect with leveling off after DIDsuggests that switch to capitation is associated with significantly lowerspecial education rates in years following policy change The magnitudeof the effect is meaningful a decrease in placement rates of 095 percentagepoints means that a state with an average of 16 of students placed inspecial education pre-capitation would be expected to see an average of1505 of students placed post-capitation
3 Synthetic control case analysis ofswitch to capitation
Motivation 1) inference problems with small treatment N (three states)2) very high special education rates in states that switch to capitationdrop might be due to unsustainable rates rather than policy change 3) iseffect driven by large drop in one state Approach construct syntheticcontrol for each treatment state Placebo test post-pre treatment RM-SPE ratio (eq 2 divide eq 3) and compare treatment statersquos ratio to controlstatesrsquo ratios
radicradicradicradicradicradicradic1
Nyearsposttxlowast 2011sum
i=txyear(Ytreatedstatei
minus Ysyntheticcontrolstatei)2 (2)
radicradicradicradicradicradicradic1
Nyearspretxlowasttxyearminus1sum
i=2000(Ytreatedstatei
minus Ysyntheticcontrolstatei)2 (3)
Figure synthetic control suggests most of the previous effect seems to be driven by a large drop inspecial education rates in New Jersey following capitation with RMSPE placebo test suggesting a lessthan 003 chance (133) the drop is due to chance since NJrsquos ratio is ranked largest among 33 statesIn contrast capitation appears to have little effect in Missouri One reason for difference lies in nuancesof financing formulas New Jersey in the pre-policy period had a stronger system of financial incentivesfor special education placement called multiple pupil weighting which not only weighted each specialeducation student as a financial multiple of a general education student but also provided higher weightsfor more expensive disabilities (eg autism) Missouri in the pre-policy period funded districts based onreported school resources spent on special education but this funding was capped according to standardsfor these resources (eg specific student-teacher ratios) West Virginia (not shown) appears similar toMissouri and also had a more modest policy shift than New Jersey
Treated
(New Jersey)
Synthetic
control
14
15
16
17
18
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Year (spring of school year)
Per
cent
age
of s
tude
nts
plac
ed in
spe
cial
edu
catio
n
ArizonaMississippi
MarylandMichigan
South CarolinaKansas
TennesseeIowa
New MexicoWashington
OregonFlorida
OhioNebraska
NevadaDelaware
IllinoisKentucky
MaineNorth Carolina
WyomingIndiana
WisconsinLouisiana
South DakotaNew YorkVermontVirginiaGeorgia
TexasOklahoma
New HampshireNew Jersey
0 1 2 3 4 5Ratio of postminustreatment to preminustreatment RMSPE
Sta
te
Treated
(Missouri)
Synthetic
control
13
14
15
16
17
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Year (spring of school year)
Per
cent
age
of s
tude
nts
plac
ed in
spe
cial
edu
catio
n
ArizonaMississippi
MichiganKansasNevadaFlorida
New MexicoSouth Carolina
IowaMissouri
WashingtonOregon
New YorkMarylandLouisianaOklahoma
OhioSouth Dakota
WyomingVermont
TennesseeNorth Carolina
WisconsinVirginiaGeorgia
NebraskaIllinois
DelawareTexas
New HampshireIndiana
KentuckyMaine
00 25 50 75 100Ratio of postminustreatment to preminustreatment RMSPE
Sta
te
4 Future directions districtheterogeneity
Figure Map shows drop in students placed in special education in the year following capitation (dis-trictrsquos of children in special education in the year immediately prior to capitation minus the districtrsquos in year capitation went into effect) Districts with higher of students eligible for free reduced price lunch(indicated by less-translucent circles) seem more highly represented among districts with large decreasesInitial regression lends support school districts with more FRPL-eligible experienced larger decrease
Atlantic
Bergen
BurlingtonCamden
Cape May
Cumberland
Essex
Gloucester
Hudson
Hunterdon
Mercer
Middlesex
Monmouth
Morris
Ocean
Passaic
Salem
Somerset
Sussex
Union
WarrenWhat happened in district in year capitation went into effect (compared to prior year)
fewer students placed
more students placed
Pre capitation minus postminuscapitation students placed in special education (positive = fewer students placed)
minus5
0
5
10
students in 0017lowastlowast 0022lowastlowast
district elig (0009) (0011)free or redprice lunch students in minus0009district who are (0014)african-americanObservations 463 463R2 0009 0010Note lowastplt01 lowastlowastplt005 lowastlowastlowastplt001
Figure 6 Poster from Rebecca createdusing Beamer
2 Separate the poster into columns using
begincolumn endcolumn
Most posters have 3-4 columns
3 Within each column you can use commands like
beginblock endblock
(for a block without a background) or
beginalertblock endalertblock
(for a block with a backgroundoutline) to separate the posterinto sections like Research question Hypotheses etc
4 Within each block you can put different combinations of Fig-ures and text (though not too much text) as you see fit
bull Getting Feedback Use the session to figure out what peopleare reacting to in your project Try out different pitches look forwhat their questions are or what claims they donrsquot buy watchwhether or not they understand your tables and figures Finallybe sure to listen to yourself or your partner What you are sayingto communicate the point of a figure or table is what should beincluded in the paperrsquos caption for that figure or table
References
Angrist J D and Lavy V (1999) Using maimonidesrsquo rule to esti-mate the effect of class size on scholastic achievement The QuarterlyJournal of Economics 114(2)533ndash575
Ho D E Imai K King G and Stuart E A (2007) Matching asnonparametric preprocessing for reducing model dependence inparametric causal inference Political analysis 15(3)199ndash236
King G (2006) Publication publication PS Political Science ampPolitics 39(01)119ndash125
King G Pan J and Roberts M E (2014) Reverse-engineeringcensorship in china Randomized experimentation and participantobservation Science 345(6199)1251722
King G Tomz M and Wittenberg J (2000) Making the mostof statistical analyses Improving interpretation and presentationAmerican journal of political science pages 347ndash361
soc 504 writing a replicationextension paper 7
Robinson D (2017) An introduction to empirical bayes Examples frombaseball statistics
Salganik M J Dodds P S and Watts D J (2006) Experimentalstudy of inequality and unpredictability in an artificial culturalmarket science 311(5762)854ndash856
- Important components to an empirical paper
- Article Format
- Supplemental Information
- Stylistic Formatting
- Figures and Tables
- Writing
- Whats a poster session
-
soc 504 writing a replicationextension paper 2
For this class we will be loosely following the formatting guide-lines of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS)This is an important general audience scholarly journal which uses arather short paper form You can refer to their website for more infor-mation5 We have included some of the most salient details below 5 httpwwwpnasorgsiteauthors
preparationxhtml
Article Format
The key advantage of the PNAS format is that it imposes a usefulstructure on the article format which prioritizes a quick statement ofthe importance of the problem followed by a more detailed statementof the methods
Figure 1 The PNAS format demon-strated with an image from a paperwritten by Melissa Sands a graduatestudent at Harvard in PNAS
bull Title Page Include on the title page all contributing authors in al-phabetical order6 You should also include a significance statement
6 Haggling over author order is a hardpart of academic collaborations Forthis everyone should contribute equallyand you should go in alphabetical orderacknowledging that fact
in the title page a 120-word-maximum statement about the signif-icance of their research paper written at a level understandable toan undergraduate-educated scientist outside your field of specialty
bull Main Text The PNAS format does not require and in fact is tooshort to include a detailed literature review You should howevercomment on the relevance and significance of your work
The main text usually include following sections
ndash Abstract Provide an abstract of no more than 250 words onpage 2 of the manuscript
ndash Introduction quickly establish the problem and its importanceto the field
ndash Materials and Methods in this section you need to describe thedata and methods you used
ndash Results the core results of the paper
ndash Discussion usually the last page discuss the implicationslimitationsof the paper
Writing short versions of things is hard If you want good exam-ples look at papers in Nature and Science which have to establishthe stakes of a problem very quickly7 There is always a tempta- 7 Two we like in particular Salganik
et al (2006) and King et al (2014)tion here to write for someone who already knows the literature-essentially confirming that you have also read it by reciting theshibboleth But you want instead to summarize the broad strokesfor a literature who doesnrsquot know it- establishing why we shouldcare and why this is an exciting area
bull The website provides more details on the contents of each section8 8 httpwwwpnasorgsiteauthors
preparationxhtmlbull Here is a sample of recent social science publications in PNAS
You can follow this link to find some papers and get a sense of therelative length of each section9 9 httpwwwpnasorgcontentby
sectionSocial20Sciences
soc 504 writing a replicationextension paper 3
Supplemental Information
You may include a document of supplemental information containingadditional details which the paper does not have room for Hereyou can include details necessary to replicate your results and ifyou like more extended discussions of robustness checks or othermethodological details
You should also include your data file and replication code for allresults in the article These will be helpful for the group reviewingyour work
Stylistic Formatting
bull Word Processing You can use wither Word LATEXor R Markdownto write your paper If you use LATEXor R Markdown use BibTeXto compile the bibliography
bull Paper Length Following two ways to make sure that you arewithin this limit
ndash If you use WORD to write your paper PNAS put a six-pagelength cap and total characters 39000 on the submitted worddocument
1 Generate a pre-submission copy of your word documentfollowing the guidelines here
2 Submit your paper to PNASrsquos page length estimation web-site and make sure that you pass their test
ndash If you use LATEXto format you paper PNAS has their own tem-plate Download their template here or use Overleaf to writeyour paper online at this website If you download a local tem-plate put the decompressed files in the template to the folder ofyour tex file A help file is here
With the template you should be able to generate a PNAS-stylepdf document Make sure that your pdf document is within 6
pages (excluding title page)
bull Section Formatting Be sure to include the required sections in themain text
bull Tables and Figures Clear and informative tables and figures arevital to communicate your findings Here are a few guidelines
1 Include only the most important tables and figures in the mainpaper Any table or figure included should be referenced anddiscussed Additional tables and figures can be included insupplementary materials
soc 504 writing a replicationextension paper 4
2 All tables and figures should be numbered and referencedappropriately in the article
3 Include detailed captions so that each table and figure canbe understood on itrsquos own The reader should be able to fullyunderstand the tables and figures without needing to refer backto the text Be sure to state in the caption what you want thereader to take away from the figure If you find yourself unableto write a clear statement of what you want the reader to takeaway- you should reconsider whether the table or figure isnecessary
4 Think critically about your tables and figures so that they areinterpretable to someone without your expertise Labels shouldbe understandable (eg variable names are clear) Use legendstitles axis labels judiciously to communicate your results
minus80 minus70 minus60 minus50 minus40 minus30
000
005
010
015
020
Estimated inminussample average treatment effect for the treated
Den
sity
Raw data Matcheddata
Point estimate of raw data
Figure 2 Kernel density plot (asmoothed histogram) of point estimatesof the in-sample ATT of the DemocraticSenate majority on FDA drug approvaltime across 262143 specifications Thesolid line presents a density plot of theMLEs of ATT using the matched dataset whereas the dashed line is based onthe raw data The vertical arrow showsthe point estimate from CarpenterrsquosModel 1 based on the raw data Theestimate does not match Carpenterrsquosestimate exactly because it is on a dif-ferent scale and also because of theslightly different set of predictors usedas discussed above The figure showsthat ATT estimates are considerablymore sensitive to model specificationusing the raw data as compared withthe preprocessed matched data (FromHo et al (2007))
0
25
50
75
100
028 029 030 031 032 033Batting average
dens
ity
Hank Aaron
Mike PiazzaMike Piazza
Hank Aaron
0
25
50
75
100
028 029 030 031 032 033Batting average
dens
ity
Posterior Probability of Batting Average
Figure 3 An example using all ggplotdefaults (left) and customized aesthetics(right) Robinson (2017)httpvarianceexplainedorgr
bayesian_ab_baseball
Figures and Tables
bull All figures and tables need detailed and informative captions soyour reader can understand them without referring back to themain text (see figure 2)
bull All included figures and tables need to be referenced and inter-preted in the document
bull Every figure and table in the appendix needs to be mentioned inthe main text so the reader knows what and where they are 10
10 Complete summary statistics areavailable in the Appendix in Table 1
bull Graphical defaults are not necessarily best (see figure 3)
ndash Legends can take up unnecessary space as well as make figuresharder to read Alternatively try annotating directly onto thefigure
ndash The grey background and gridline defaults of ggplot can bechanged
ndash Labels can be rotated to be more legible
ndash Proofread to ensure font size and the plot size as a whole isreadable
ndash Donrsquot let anythig be cut-off This includes titles and labels
bull Make sure positioning of the figure within the document is correctDonrsquot let things float weirdly to another page or have too muchwhitespace
bull When possible make your figures decipherable if printed in blackand white
soc 504 writing a replicationextension paper 5
Writing
bull Write for a broad audience and general interest Limit jargon andwrite clearly and concisely
bull Your readers may not be familiar with the original replicationpaper or the literature in general Give your reader enough back-ground to understand how your analysis fits in
bull Tell the reader whatrsquos at stake Why does the question matterHow do your findings inform what we think about whatrsquos atstake Whorsquos mind are you going to change about what
bull PNAS format still needs some background information (eg shortconcise literature review) and proper citations
bull Your paper should first set-up the original paper you replicatedthen clearly describe how you build and deviate from this
bull Make sure to weave together your arguments and your supportinganalysis on the backend This is your last chance to highlight yourfindings and show the reader whatrsquos at stake Leave the readerwith a strong conclusion
Whatrsquos a poster session
Poster sessions are a great way to get feedback on an ongoing project11 11 This section owes a lot Kosuke ImairsquosldquoHow to Make a Poster for SocialScience Researchrdquo handout httpimaiprincetoneduteaching
filesHowToPosterpdf
You put up a visual aid of your results (the poster) and then pitch theproject repeatedly to the passers-by typically summarizing the en-tire work in under 2 minutes Believe us- nothing cements the keyfeatures of a piece of work like being forced to repeatedly explain it
bull Your Poster is a Visual Aid Your poster is not intended to beread it is a visual aid to help you explain your argument Thus itshould have way less text than you might imagine One of Bran-donrsquos favorite posters contains very little text (see Figure 4) Thisalso means you are likely to write in short phrases rather thancomplete sentences
Adoption of Jihadi Ideology by Islamic ClericsRich Nielsen Harvard University Iacute httppeoplefasharvardedu˜rnielsen
Extensive network
Limited network
Insider career
Outsider career
Expediency
Credibility
Not Jihad
Jihad
ldquoItrsquos really all about trying to study with the prominent sheikhsand getting some kind of ijaza [certificate] from them if you canYou just try to get into peoplersquos networksrdquo
Theory
Abstract Islamic clerics with limited educational networks are more likely to adopt militant Jihadi ideology
Cleric writings
internet
lthtmlgt اجلهاد يف سبيل اهللا lthtmlgt scrape
جهاد
سبيل
اهللا
clean and stem
جهاد
سبيل
اهللا
model text
document score(s)
cleric score
times 91
times 29430
Cleric writings
modified naive
Bayes classifier
A B
training set
document score =sum
i logP(wi|A)wiP(wi|B)wi
Afraid of
Narrow
Is believed
Fear
Secondly
Know
Remains
We ask
And here
Thirdly
Effort
Displays
Reported
Other
Summary
Accept
Does it
Spirit
Fidelity
Anger
Pan
Creature
Extent
Several
Updated
Completely
Under no
Street
Complex
Indeed
Differentiate
Moses
Send
For some
I got
After them
Ideas
Be taken
Get
Without
Descent
Likely
Out
One
Position
Evil
Result
Text
Signed
The Creator
Penalty
Deny
Shows
Underneath
Body
Aware of
Blessed
Aslam
I learned
Particularly
Him
Literature
Responsible
And even
Harm
Approved
Cattle
Benefit
And more
Alice
Survival
Sir
A lot
Improves
The seventh
Packages
End
Visualization
Prove
Was
The body
Use
Branches
Defeated
Take
Opportunity
Says
Money
Great
Measurement
Task
Make
Supreme
Explanation
Transferred
Amr
Toxic
Quasiminus
Risk
Trees
Patience
Proof
Heart
Before
I bear witness
Writes
Excuse
Poverty
Virgin
Actually
Punk
Story
Torment
Left
Determination
Speak
Follow
Be
Long
Sominuscalled
For himself
Conditions
On
Prophet
Together
Display
Are not
Beliefs
Never
Guidance
Still
Witness
Check
Blocker
We know
Called
Word
In
First
King
Murderer
Detail
Lord
I said
Abe
Explain
Option
Work
Said
High
Death
A large
Believe in
Comprehensive
One of them
At least
Followed by
Orientation
We have
Jurisprudential
Understand
Necessity
Since
Example
Roads
Section
Violates the
Issuance of
Far
The eyes
Fourth
Social
Ray
Originally
You want
Certainty
Solomon
Neighborhoods
Forgive
See
Never
Ordered them
Contained
All
Reminus
News
And you
For these
Friend
Love
Labbe
Call
State
Add
Walking
Hurry
Degree
Qadir
Insults
Hundred
Denied
A particular
Evil
Not
Becomes
Bone
Received
Long as
Senior
Aversion
Staff
Warning
Adults
You
Inn
It
Follow
Sin
Some
As the
Is
Lord
Provides
As well as
Wine
Both
Has become
Appearance
Demonstration
A cause
Huda
Minds
Nuclear
Means
Whenever
Qadeer
Beginning
Reality
Your
Attempt
Companions
We
Corresponding to
According to
The lowest
Order the
Address
Stand
Allah will
By virtue of
Show
Supreme
Level
Gathering
The effects of
Intensity
Change
Side
The hands
So
You
Most of them
The
See
Acknowledges
Israel
Stands
Application
God
Edition
Know
Perhaps
Show
Needs
We
What
Report
Conflict
Field
His statement
The Messenger
Capital
Us
Years
Something
According to
Exposure
Just
Hussein
New
Faces
Show
To be
Versus
Obedience
Claim
A way
Reality
See
Fancy
Significant
Few
Subminus
Discourse
Muhammad
Recognition
Safe
Their hands
Badr
On behalf of
Yourselves
Sea
Other
Phrase
The absolute
Secretariat
Agreement
Away
A people
Revelation
Cities
His brothers
Raina
To differentiate
Are
Which
Denial
Within
The soul
Face
Check
The facts
Control
Partner
Alpha
Mansoura
Were it not for
Nullity
Imams
Certificate
They said
Group
According to
Concept
Balance
Will not
Some
Pharaoh
Issued
Consideration
We want
Economic
While
Wi
This
And all
Ourselves
Is
Other than
Student
Deliverance
With
Aspects of
Line
Confrontation
List
Condition
Judge
Do
They wanted
Wonder
BooksPlaces
Damage
And they
Issues
Shown
Owner
Scourge
Find
Serious
Evil
Call
Corrupt
Very
Worship
Malignant
He
Lying
Ethics
Iron
Think
Tongue
Fancies
One
IgnoranceSaid
You
Distinguished
Opposition
Denial
The apparent
Side
Powers
How
Important
Party
Hell
The doors
Advanced
Examples
Ill
Us
Hopes
Presence
His faith
At least
Our
Put
Still
Hearts
How
Post
Kinds of
Target
View
Can
Worship
Live
Sheikhs
IncludingMeanings
Foot
Stray
Was
Wright
All
Mr
Spoiler
Court
Significance
Issued
The following
Minute
OneAcceptance
Spring
Sadiq
Shadow
Else
Owners
Article
Champions
Claimed
Including
Their hearts
Symptoms
Religion
Saying
Board
Time
Sons
Make
Interest
Calling
Like
Display
Claim
Their money
Probably
You
Ibrahim
Him
Quraish
Impeller
Martyrs
YearPrevious
We
Team
Spread
Predecessor
Open
Trial
Many
Minimum
I say
Intent
Announcement
Community
Disclosure
Legislation
Hit
Some of them
Prophets
Dear
Justice
Life
Rules
We
Humiliation
We find
ZoneSend
Hypocrisy
That
Wahab
Events
Seemed
The above
Protection
Scientists
Senate
Prince
Like
Positions
Look
You
IssueReason
The most
History
Contemporary
Regardless
Obaid
Difference
United
To order
Sham
ImmigrationShan
Hostility
We say
We
Really
Thought
Sword
Appeal
Taymiyah
All
Stage
Satisfaction
Unbelievers
Delusion
Position
All
Border
Method
A
Kharijites
Head
The most important
Shirk
Parties
How
Pain
Aba
Leadership
Infidel
Violation
Rightly
Say
Parents
He wants
Movement
Explicitly
The belief
Words
Muslim
Invasion
For
Description
Supports the
Defense
Corruption
WhateverRights
Soldiers
They
Frank
Consensus
Transfer
We
Numbers
Without
But
Progress
Yard
Roman
Them
Evidence
Man
Exegesis
Alert
Article
While
Blood
Wise
Investigation
Issues
Page
Loyalty
Joseph
Sect
Martyr
Disbelief
Rahim
Mustafa
Systems
Must
The battle
RahmanSoldiers
Issue
Time
Which
Information
The provisions of
HypocritesLaw
And others
Believe
Where
Doctrine
Christianity
Military
In the name of
Seer
Crusade
The island
Will
Our brothers
Disbelief
All
Was
Era
Pregnancy
Their religion
Apostles
They said
Arms
Interests
Those
Message
West
Assets
Young people
Fighting
Texts
Great
House
Al Qaeda
Fight
I
Uh
Sharia
Themselves
And between
Alone
Loyalty
Known
Who
People
Supporters
The greatest
Were
Fact
Sultan
Army
Governing
Preachers
Criminals
Word
Kill
Milli
I say
Mr
Order
Response
People
I
More
Party
Arabs
Unitarian
Freedom
Laws
Security
Brother
Platform
Political
Faith
Palestine
Brotherhood
Falsehood
Governor
Legislation
All
Apostatize
Ignorance
Injustice
Worship
Iraq
The infidels
AfghanistanTerrorism
People
Government
Statement
Down
The enemies
The faithfulAgainst
And Enmity
Judgements
Apostates
Maqdisi
Idolaters
Prison
Fighting
Without
Oppressors
Country
GodAmerica
JewsForce
War
LandWay
Victory
Enemy
American
Excommunication
Killing
The worldIdolatry
The nationState
Idolators
Infidel
Monotheism
Mujahideen
Apostasy
Jihad The
Are
Zaid
Like
Newly
Directly
My nation
The
You
Legalization
Wants to
The
The
News
Prove
Opinion
Search
The nearest
To the son of
Human
By saying
Accept
I like
Consequent
We know
Rest
Indicates
Spoke
Strange
And how much
Not
Present
Bammer
Valley
Prove
Weakness
Dies
The old
Ray
Log in
ValuesIsaac
Estimated
Staff
Stronger
Century
Revolution
Requires
Known
Lord
Contrary to
Decision
Delivery
Assesses
After
Down
Eye
And possibly
Custom
Individual
Near
Series
Is
With
Fired
Tracking
Either
By himself
Obstacle
To the people
Line
Doctrines
Rejection
Reform
Tender
Detection
More
A way
Was
Once the
Stone
Should be
Deficit
Center
The sixth
Companions
And it
Type
Acts
PenaltyChildren
Skies
Bear
His hand
To reconcile
One thousandth
Follow the
Across
Jurisprudence
Fit
NotA
Hamid
Comes
Puts
Guides
Wise
Difference
Intervention
Easy
The fourth
Nine
Yemen
Raises
Sins
Remember
Rectum
As
Maintain
Del
EBay
Religiously
And other
Ruled that
Impose
Is
Before
The sky
Charity
Permanent
I see
Aas
Promise
Resurrection
Enlarge
Number
Evidence
Enough
LaSalle
Always
Serves as
Gives
Nature
Have
Found
And
See
One day
The basis of
Different
Being
Can
Mahmoud
Past
Ezz
Back
Sex
Pursuant to
Thousands of
Advice
Massoud
Confidence
Has become
Conditions
Was
Estimate
And piety
A little
I took
Two
Prevent
Strong
Number
Arrived
The large number of
V
Hatred
Circle
Differ
Forms
Caution
Necessary
Money
Increase
Author
Twice
Role
So and so
Do
Was
Desire
More
Roy
Except
Selection
The
Has become
The contrary
Remain
Ashraf
Provide
Between them
Provided
Intended
The famous
Doubt
As
The pretext of
Salah
Latecomers
Place
Hanifa
Presence
Hearing
Want to
Specific
Concern
Yourself
Families
At
Dhar
Can
Knowing
Drink
Asked
Palm
Show
There are
Wide
As
Willing
Never
Fear
Keeper
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Love
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Wife
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Hit
When
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Osman
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Almighty
Suspicion
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Shafei
Recent
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Neighborhood
Provided that
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Take
Reminus
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Solve the
Blood
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Part
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Country
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Aisha
Guidance
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Prevents
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Five
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The original
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Time
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I hope
Innovation
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Doctrine
The answer
Majah
Nonminus
Women
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Khaled
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Full
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Sunan
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Old
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WillBack
Thread
Raise
First
Especially
What
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Messages
Episode
During the
Secrecy
About
Speech
Curse
Tirmidhi
True
Almighty
Note
Voice
UsurySecond
Intention
Save
Sun
Truth
Paradise
Period
Wear
Ras
I want
Half
Building
Young
Answer
Amount
But
GoldTotal
Owner
For
Mosques
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For example
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Days
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Order
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I
More
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Country
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The sixth
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Follow the
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Jurisprudence
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Hamid
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Mahmoud
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Hatred
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More
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Except
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The contrary
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Ashraf
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Between them
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As
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Salah
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Place
Hanifa
Presence
Hearing
Want to
Specific
Concern
Yourself
Families
At
Dhar
Can
Knowing
Drink
Asked
Palm
Show
There are
Wide
As
Willing
Never
Fear
Keeper
Names
Different
Study
Members
The best
Gel
Such as
Did
So
LeavesLearning
Reasons
Shed
Whole
Sayings
Adam
This
Hear
In other words
For
Lack
Right
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Sharp
Table
Light
Came
Optical
Man
I
Sharif
Asked
Terms
Then
If
Bad
Useful
His life
Mark
Seen
Halt
OneNo
About us
Exchange
Separation
Hanbal
And followers
Take
I heard
Kara
Comment
Find
Age
Because
Dispute
To be
The following
Ring
Cut
Livelihood
Agreed
Hidden
Delivers
Education
Perfection
Possible
Obtained
Certain
Paper
Angels
Foreign
Fire
For nonminus
Need
Perhaps the
Required
Interest
Saad
Years
Comes
Found
Contract
To imitate
Get
Science
Income
Quest
The establishment of
Other
Pay
A means
Has
Pay
Land
Leave
Satisfaction
Very
Desires
First
Often
Appropriate
The unseen
Knowledge
Treatment
Sin
Not
Request
The said
Account
Uncle
Education
Occurs
Combines
The
City
Great
Yam
Scholars
Jazz
Works
Service
Results
Tell
Love
Sentence
Kaaba
Lead
Close
Must
Foot
Back
Disposal
Wife
Egypt
Hit
When
And messengers
Must
Osman
Required
Grandfather
Said
Deal
Fixed
Language
Questions
Almighty
Suspicion
Out
Business
The day
Meaning
Full
The public
Virtue
Is called
Kitten
Will
See
A
Is located
Read
I
Roy
Up
Shows
Entry
Nuha
Sometimes
Status
Makes
Duty
The mind
I know
Six
Something
Feast
Preferred
HappyMeans
Character
Matt
Sins
Seven
Event
Should be
Question
Shafei
Recent
Means
In
And so on
Out
Trade
Hand
Graduation
Proven
Back
Whether
When
Relationship
Solution
Behind
Project
Problem
CameGo
Neighborhood
Provided that
Around him
Take
Reminus
Period
Solve the
Blood
Abbas
Part
Adultery
Nasser
Affect
Prayers
Four
The time
Months
Return
End
Things
He wanted
And only
Calls for
Sin
Country
Not
Aisha
Guidance
Good
Parental
Prophecy
Is
Well
Clear
Word
Prevents
And then
Of religion
Out
The third
Things
Do
Of
Pronunciation
Link
The intended
Good
Five
Born
The original
Name
Wage
Passport
Increase
Likely
Men
Time
Is
Small
Travel
I hope
Innovation
And Prevention
Doctrine
The answer
Majah
Nonminus
Women
Children
Permissible
Create
Khaled
Satan
Full
True
Sunan
Ban
Old
Enters
DoorMorocco
Existing
Directed by
And because
To be
And blessings
Ask
WillBack
Thread
Raise
First
Especially
What
Cow
Messages
Episode
During the
Secrecy
About
Speech
Curse
Tirmidhi
True
Almighty
Note
Voice
UsurySecond
Intention
Save
Sun
Truth
Paradise
Period
Wear
Ras
I want
Half
Building
Young
Answer
Amount
But
GoldTotal
Owner
For
Mosques
Disease
Necessary
Repentance
For example
Food
Be
Days
Place
Weak
Back
You
Eating
Daybreak
DeprivedRoad
Directed by
Links
Valid
Dead
Do
And companions
Eg
Chatter
Al
David
Instinct
Ahmed
Hand
Good
Night
Elimination
For saying
Image
Month
Sale
Honorable
Noble
Take
Hair
Place
Reading
Women
Be
Collection
Water
Three
Critical
Woman
The best
Person
Are
Sacred
Need
Fasting
Up
Quoting
Bukhari
House
Means
Yes
Forbidden
Pray
Ramadan
Bass
Ten
ManTime
MaySource
Narrated byMustAge
HumanImam
Money
Mosque
QuranHajj
Zakat
Her husbandWomen
minusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusltlt gtgtJihadi Not Jihadi
Word Frequency
aaaa
= 1250
= 1500
= 11000= 12000
Measurement
1 The clerics who ultimately adoptedJihadi ideology had a more limited ed-ucational network
2 Career paths are correlated withideology Non-Jihadi clerics havemore prestigious appointments Ji-hadi clerics spend more time inprison
non-JihadiJihadi
Number of appointments
Den
sity
0 2 4 6 8
00
02
04
06
08
JihadinonminusJihadi
Cleric Jihad score
Ref
eren
ces
to p
rison
minus006 minus004 minus002 000 002 004
05
1015
2025
Findings
Figure 4 Rich Nielsenrsquos Polmeth 2012
poster on a portion of his dissertationwork Note how little text there is
bull How to Make a Poster Some notes on designing a poster withbeamer (powerpoint such as for Ianrsquos poster (5) reviewed in pre-cept) We can think of creating in roughly the following steps
Within- and Between-Group Inequality Looking Beyond the Variance
ReferencesMcLanahan Sara 2004 ldquoDiverging destinies How children are faring under the second
demographic transitionrdquo Demography 41(4)607-627Western Bruce Deirdre Bloome and Christine Percheski 2008 ldquoInequality among American
families with children 1975-2005rdquo American Sociological Review 73903-920
AcknowledgmentsResearch reported in this poster was supported by The Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute
of Child Health amp Human Development of the National Institutes of Health under Award Number T32HD007163 The content is solely the responsibility of the author and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health
IanLundbergPrincetonUniversity
Has the rise in single parenthood affected aggregateinequality Prior literature using global measures ofinequality suggests a minor role yet distinct processesmay operate at the top and bottom Using CPS data toevaluate changes in the 9050 and 5010 income ratiosI find that the growth in single-parent families isassociated with increased lower-tail income inequality
Changing family structure explains about half of the risein lower-tail income inequality but almost none of theincrease in upper-tail income inequality
Prior literature demonstrates a robust associationbetween single parenthood and poverty yet suggeststhat family structure is unrelated to inequality I findthat the conclusion depends on the chosen measure ofinequality while family structure is unrelated to upper-tail income inequality it explains about half of thegrowth in lower-tail inequality
More broadly these findings confirm the need fordistributional methods in the study of inequality anddemonstrate re-weighting methods as a conceptuallysimple yet analytically flexible method for futuredistributional work
Prior research has argued that growing family incomeinequality is driven by two forces inequality in personalincomes and inequality in the pooling of those incomeswithin families By decomposing the variance of logfamily incomes Western Bloome and Percheski (2008)argue that the former is dominant most of the rise ininequality has occurred within groups defined byeducation and family structure
Variance decompositions measure inequality with asingle parameter (the variance) which characterizes theentire distribution However family structure haschanged the most among the most disadvantaged(McLanahan 2004) which suggests that lower-tailinequality may be more strongly affected by familystructure than upper-tail inequality To the extent thatvariances are influenced by outliers they may captureupper-tail inequality and miss lower-tail inequality
Overview DataandMethods
Background
SummaryofDecomposition
Conclusion
DepartmentofSociologyampOfficeofPopulationResearchilundbergprincetonedu
CurrentPopulationSurvey(CPS)1968-2013bull 2269326children(asymp49333year)bull 06excludedformissingdatabull RepresentativeofAmericanchildrenunder18(weighted)
Methods1 Stratify respondents by family structure and labor supply2 Re-weight to the 1968 distribution of relevant covariates3 Calculate inequality in the counterfactual population
Benefit We can compute any measure of inequality (not justthe variance) on the weighted counterfactual distribution
Key assumption Changing the distribution of family structureswould have no indirect effects on income inequality
Figure2Counterfactualinequalitytrends
Results
Figure3GrowthinUSfamilyincomeinequality1968-2013
Figure1Trendsinfamilystructureandlaborsupply
43 6132 3440 345 240
10203040506070
9050 income ratio 5010 income ratio
Perc
ent c
hang
e 1
968-
2013
ObservedCounterfactual No change in marriageCounterfactual No change in marriage or labor supplyCounterfactual Fixed income distribution only subgroup proportions change
Figure 5 Poster from Ian created usingPowerPoint
1 Begin with a Beamer template that makes a poster of the correctdimensions A0 (331 times 468 inches) We recommend over-leafcom as a general source of Beamer poster templates If youwant to have a specific template to use here is a link to a ver-sion of Rebeccarsquos poster (6) with content removed on Overleaf
soc 504 writing a replicationextension paper 6
if you use make sure to change some of the aesthetics so thateach poster looks different
Poster ExampleRebecca Johnson
Princeton University Department of Sociology
Important DefinitionsTwo main types of financial formulas that a state uses to allocatemoney to local education agencies (LEArsquos) to finance special educationservices State contribution makes up sim40-50 of special educationfinancing with federal sim10-15 and local revenue sim40bullWeighting financing states allocate more money to schooldistricts the more students the district places in special educationEach special education student is weighted as a multiple (eg 13)of a regular education student for funding allocations
bullCapitation financing states allocate a fixed amount of moneyto school districts that is not sensitive to the of students thedistrict places in special education by basing funding on generalstudent enrollment rather than specific placement into specialeducation
Whatrsquos the question
Does a statersquos switch to capitation financing where districts are no longerfinancially rewarded for each additional child placed special educationappear to cause a decrease in rates of special education placement If sohow does the magnitude of that decrease vary by district based on theracial and socioeconomic composition of its students
Why does it matter
bull Special education enrolls 10 to 20 of public school studentsbullExisting sociology research focuses on how an individual studentrsquos
attributes predict special education placement net of the studentrsquostrue disability (eg African-American males facing a higher risk ofplacement than white students at same levels of learning impairment)bullHow study addresses focuses on a policy context that shapesplacement net of disability status rather than an individual attribute
bullExisting economics research focuses on how fiscal incentives built intoinsurance impact diagnoses in medical care(eg upcoding based onreimbursement rates) less investigation of how fiscal incentives builtinto school funding regimes impact diagnoses children receive in theschool systemcarry with them into medical carebullHow study addresses focuses on fiscal incentives for diagnosingor not diagnosing childhood disabilities via placement into specialeducation under a specific category
Data sources
Dependent variables all by yearstate from 2000 to 2011Percentage of students enrolled Numerator NCES Common Core data onin special education IDEA Part B (3-21) recipients
Denominator NCES total public school studentsIndependent variables all by yearstate from 2000 to 2011Financing formula OSEP and NASDE 50-state survey of financing formulas
Confirmed via legislative statutesControls State unemployment rate median family income BLS ACS NCESFRPL-eligible students
1 State variation in fiscal incentivesFigure Map of distribution of financing formulas show that capitation financing is not confined toparticularly politically conservative or high-poverty regions The heat map of special education prevalencerates before any policy changes with green indicating lower rates white as the median and darker redindicating higher rates shows generally higher rates on the East Coast but particularly high rates in thispre-policy period in two of the weighting states that switch to capitation (NJ and West Virginia)
Finance category
Capitation entire time
Switched from capitation to weighting
Switched from weighting to capitation
Weighting entire time 100
125
150
175
Percentage of students placed in special education
2 Does switch to capitation causedecrease in special education rates
Approach DID treatment states = weighting states that switch to capi-tation control states = weighting states that donrsquot switch
Yit = α + β1 lowast treatmentstate(1 = yes 0 = no)+β2 lowast posttreatmentperiod(1 = yes 0 = no)+
β3 lowast treatmentstate lowast posttreatmentperiod + γ lowastXit + εit
(1)
Xit vector of controls Quantity of interest β3 Post-treatment period is defined as years after 2 out of 3states passed capitation
Treatment x minus0860lowastlowastlowast minus0950lowastlowastlowast
post-tx period (0252) (0267)
State clustered se Yes YesControls included No Yes
Note lowastplt01 lowastlowastplt005 lowastlowastlowastplt001Controls (all stateyear) percentage of studentsreceiving free or reduced price lunch (FRPL)unemployment rate median household income(logged) population (in millions) 11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Year (spring of school year)
Per
cent
age
of s
tude
nts
plac
ed in
spe
cial
edu
catio
n
GroupControl weighting states with no change
Treatment weighting state that passed capitation
Figure The graph highlights that states that switch from weighting tocapitation have higher levels than weighting states that donrsquot switch beforethe policyrsquos passage and seem to experience the sharpest decrease inrates in the year the policy goes into effect with leveling off after DIDsuggests that switch to capitation is associated with significantly lowerspecial education rates in years following policy change The magnitudeof the effect is meaningful a decrease in placement rates of 095 percentagepoints means that a state with an average of 16 of students placed inspecial education pre-capitation would be expected to see an average of1505 of students placed post-capitation
3 Synthetic control case analysis ofswitch to capitation
Motivation 1) inference problems with small treatment N (three states)2) very high special education rates in states that switch to capitationdrop might be due to unsustainable rates rather than policy change 3) iseffect driven by large drop in one state Approach construct syntheticcontrol for each treatment state Placebo test post-pre treatment RM-SPE ratio (eq 2 divide eq 3) and compare treatment statersquos ratio to controlstatesrsquo ratios
radicradicradicradicradicradicradic1
Nyearsposttxlowast 2011sum
i=txyear(Ytreatedstatei
minus Ysyntheticcontrolstatei)2 (2)
radicradicradicradicradicradicradic1
Nyearspretxlowasttxyearminus1sum
i=2000(Ytreatedstatei
minus Ysyntheticcontrolstatei)2 (3)
Figure synthetic control suggests most of the previous effect seems to be driven by a large drop inspecial education rates in New Jersey following capitation with RMSPE placebo test suggesting a lessthan 003 chance (133) the drop is due to chance since NJrsquos ratio is ranked largest among 33 statesIn contrast capitation appears to have little effect in Missouri One reason for difference lies in nuancesof financing formulas New Jersey in the pre-policy period had a stronger system of financial incentivesfor special education placement called multiple pupil weighting which not only weighted each specialeducation student as a financial multiple of a general education student but also provided higher weightsfor more expensive disabilities (eg autism) Missouri in the pre-policy period funded districts based onreported school resources spent on special education but this funding was capped according to standardsfor these resources (eg specific student-teacher ratios) West Virginia (not shown) appears similar toMissouri and also had a more modest policy shift than New Jersey
Treated
(New Jersey)
Synthetic
control
14
15
16
17
18
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Year (spring of school year)
Per
cent
age
of s
tude
nts
plac
ed in
spe
cial
edu
catio
n
ArizonaMississippi
MarylandMichigan
South CarolinaKansas
TennesseeIowa
New MexicoWashington
OregonFlorida
OhioNebraska
NevadaDelaware
IllinoisKentucky
MaineNorth Carolina
WyomingIndiana
WisconsinLouisiana
South DakotaNew YorkVermontVirginiaGeorgia
TexasOklahoma
New HampshireNew Jersey
0 1 2 3 4 5Ratio of postminustreatment to preminustreatment RMSPE
Sta
te
Treated
(Missouri)
Synthetic
control
13
14
15
16
17
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Year (spring of school year)
Per
cent
age
of s
tude
nts
plac
ed in
spe
cial
edu
catio
n
ArizonaMississippi
MichiganKansasNevadaFlorida
New MexicoSouth Carolina
IowaMissouri
WashingtonOregon
New YorkMarylandLouisianaOklahoma
OhioSouth Dakota
WyomingVermont
TennesseeNorth Carolina
WisconsinVirginiaGeorgia
NebraskaIllinois
DelawareTexas
New HampshireIndiana
KentuckyMaine
00 25 50 75 100Ratio of postminustreatment to preminustreatment RMSPE
Sta
te
4 Future directions districtheterogeneity
Figure Map shows drop in students placed in special education in the year following capitation (dis-trictrsquos of children in special education in the year immediately prior to capitation minus the districtrsquos in year capitation went into effect) Districts with higher of students eligible for free reduced price lunch(indicated by less-translucent circles) seem more highly represented among districts with large decreasesInitial regression lends support school districts with more FRPL-eligible experienced larger decrease
Atlantic
Bergen
BurlingtonCamden
Cape May
Cumberland
Essex
Gloucester
Hudson
Hunterdon
Mercer
Middlesex
Monmouth
Morris
Ocean
Passaic
Salem
Somerset
Sussex
Union
WarrenWhat happened in district in year capitation went into effect (compared to prior year)
fewer students placed
more students placed
Pre capitation minus postminuscapitation students placed in special education (positive = fewer students placed)
minus5
0
5
10
students in 0017lowastlowast 0022lowastlowast
district elig (0009) (0011)free or redprice lunch students in minus0009district who are (0014)african-americanObservations 463 463R2 0009 0010Note lowastplt01 lowastlowastplt005 lowastlowastlowastplt001
Figure 6 Poster from Rebecca createdusing Beamer
2 Separate the poster into columns using
begincolumn endcolumn
Most posters have 3-4 columns
3 Within each column you can use commands like
beginblock endblock
(for a block without a background) or
beginalertblock endalertblock
(for a block with a backgroundoutline) to separate the posterinto sections like Research question Hypotheses etc
4 Within each block you can put different combinations of Fig-ures and text (though not too much text) as you see fit
bull Getting Feedback Use the session to figure out what peopleare reacting to in your project Try out different pitches look forwhat their questions are or what claims they donrsquot buy watchwhether or not they understand your tables and figures Finallybe sure to listen to yourself or your partner What you are sayingto communicate the point of a figure or table is what should beincluded in the paperrsquos caption for that figure or table
References
Angrist J D and Lavy V (1999) Using maimonidesrsquo rule to esti-mate the effect of class size on scholastic achievement The QuarterlyJournal of Economics 114(2)533ndash575
Ho D E Imai K King G and Stuart E A (2007) Matching asnonparametric preprocessing for reducing model dependence inparametric causal inference Political analysis 15(3)199ndash236
King G (2006) Publication publication PS Political Science ampPolitics 39(01)119ndash125
King G Pan J and Roberts M E (2014) Reverse-engineeringcensorship in china Randomized experimentation and participantobservation Science 345(6199)1251722
King G Tomz M and Wittenberg J (2000) Making the mostof statistical analyses Improving interpretation and presentationAmerican journal of political science pages 347ndash361
soc 504 writing a replicationextension paper 7
Robinson D (2017) An introduction to empirical bayes Examples frombaseball statistics
Salganik M J Dodds P S and Watts D J (2006) Experimentalstudy of inequality and unpredictability in an artificial culturalmarket science 311(5762)854ndash856
- Important components to an empirical paper
- Article Format
- Supplemental Information
- Stylistic Formatting
- Figures and Tables
- Writing
- Whats a poster session
-
soc 504 writing a replicationextension paper 3
Supplemental Information
You may include a document of supplemental information containingadditional details which the paper does not have room for Hereyou can include details necessary to replicate your results and ifyou like more extended discussions of robustness checks or othermethodological details
You should also include your data file and replication code for allresults in the article These will be helpful for the group reviewingyour work
Stylistic Formatting
bull Word Processing You can use wither Word LATEXor R Markdownto write your paper If you use LATEXor R Markdown use BibTeXto compile the bibliography
bull Paper Length Following two ways to make sure that you arewithin this limit
ndash If you use WORD to write your paper PNAS put a six-pagelength cap and total characters 39000 on the submitted worddocument
1 Generate a pre-submission copy of your word documentfollowing the guidelines here
2 Submit your paper to PNASrsquos page length estimation web-site and make sure that you pass their test
ndash If you use LATEXto format you paper PNAS has their own tem-plate Download their template here or use Overleaf to writeyour paper online at this website If you download a local tem-plate put the decompressed files in the template to the folder ofyour tex file A help file is here
With the template you should be able to generate a PNAS-stylepdf document Make sure that your pdf document is within 6
pages (excluding title page)
bull Section Formatting Be sure to include the required sections in themain text
bull Tables and Figures Clear and informative tables and figures arevital to communicate your findings Here are a few guidelines
1 Include only the most important tables and figures in the mainpaper Any table or figure included should be referenced anddiscussed Additional tables and figures can be included insupplementary materials
soc 504 writing a replicationextension paper 4
2 All tables and figures should be numbered and referencedappropriately in the article
3 Include detailed captions so that each table and figure canbe understood on itrsquos own The reader should be able to fullyunderstand the tables and figures without needing to refer backto the text Be sure to state in the caption what you want thereader to take away from the figure If you find yourself unableto write a clear statement of what you want the reader to takeaway- you should reconsider whether the table or figure isnecessary
4 Think critically about your tables and figures so that they areinterpretable to someone without your expertise Labels shouldbe understandable (eg variable names are clear) Use legendstitles axis labels judiciously to communicate your results
minus80 minus70 minus60 minus50 minus40 minus30
000
005
010
015
020
Estimated inminussample average treatment effect for the treated
Den
sity
Raw data Matcheddata
Point estimate of raw data
Figure 2 Kernel density plot (asmoothed histogram) of point estimatesof the in-sample ATT of the DemocraticSenate majority on FDA drug approvaltime across 262143 specifications Thesolid line presents a density plot of theMLEs of ATT using the matched dataset whereas the dashed line is based onthe raw data The vertical arrow showsthe point estimate from CarpenterrsquosModel 1 based on the raw data Theestimate does not match Carpenterrsquosestimate exactly because it is on a dif-ferent scale and also because of theslightly different set of predictors usedas discussed above The figure showsthat ATT estimates are considerablymore sensitive to model specificationusing the raw data as compared withthe preprocessed matched data (FromHo et al (2007))
0
25
50
75
100
028 029 030 031 032 033Batting average
dens
ity
Hank Aaron
Mike PiazzaMike Piazza
Hank Aaron
0
25
50
75
100
028 029 030 031 032 033Batting average
dens
ity
Posterior Probability of Batting Average
Figure 3 An example using all ggplotdefaults (left) and customized aesthetics(right) Robinson (2017)httpvarianceexplainedorgr
bayesian_ab_baseball
Figures and Tables
bull All figures and tables need detailed and informative captions soyour reader can understand them without referring back to themain text (see figure 2)
bull All included figures and tables need to be referenced and inter-preted in the document
bull Every figure and table in the appendix needs to be mentioned inthe main text so the reader knows what and where they are 10
10 Complete summary statistics areavailable in the Appendix in Table 1
bull Graphical defaults are not necessarily best (see figure 3)
ndash Legends can take up unnecessary space as well as make figuresharder to read Alternatively try annotating directly onto thefigure
ndash The grey background and gridline defaults of ggplot can bechanged
ndash Labels can be rotated to be more legible
ndash Proofread to ensure font size and the plot size as a whole isreadable
ndash Donrsquot let anythig be cut-off This includes titles and labels
bull Make sure positioning of the figure within the document is correctDonrsquot let things float weirdly to another page or have too muchwhitespace
bull When possible make your figures decipherable if printed in blackand white
soc 504 writing a replicationextension paper 5
Writing
bull Write for a broad audience and general interest Limit jargon andwrite clearly and concisely
bull Your readers may not be familiar with the original replicationpaper or the literature in general Give your reader enough back-ground to understand how your analysis fits in
bull Tell the reader whatrsquos at stake Why does the question matterHow do your findings inform what we think about whatrsquos atstake Whorsquos mind are you going to change about what
bull PNAS format still needs some background information (eg shortconcise literature review) and proper citations
bull Your paper should first set-up the original paper you replicatedthen clearly describe how you build and deviate from this
bull Make sure to weave together your arguments and your supportinganalysis on the backend This is your last chance to highlight yourfindings and show the reader whatrsquos at stake Leave the readerwith a strong conclusion
Whatrsquos a poster session
Poster sessions are a great way to get feedback on an ongoing project11 11 This section owes a lot Kosuke ImairsquosldquoHow to Make a Poster for SocialScience Researchrdquo handout httpimaiprincetoneduteaching
filesHowToPosterpdf
You put up a visual aid of your results (the poster) and then pitch theproject repeatedly to the passers-by typically summarizing the en-tire work in under 2 minutes Believe us- nothing cements the keyfeatures of a piece of work like being forced to repeatedly explain it
bull Your Poster is a Visual Aid Your poster is not intended to beread it is a visual aid to help you explain your argument Thus itshould have way less text than you might imagine One of Bran-donrsquos favorite posters contains very little text (see Figure 4) Thisalso means you are likely to write in short phrases rather thancomplete sentences
Adoption of Jihadi Ideology by Islamic ClericsRich Nielsen Harvard University Iacute httppeoplefasharvardedu˜rnielsen
Extensive network
Limited network
Insider career
Outsider career
Expediency
Credibility
Not Jihad
Jihad
ldquoItrsquos really all about trying to study with the prominent sheikhsand getting some kind of ijaza [certificate] from them if you canYou just try to get into peoplersquos networksrdquo
Theory
Abstract Islamic clerics with limited educational networks are more likely to adopt militant Jihadi ideology
Cleric writings
internet
lthtmlgt اجلهاد يف سبيل اهللا lthtmlgt scrape
جهاد
سبيل
اهللا
clean and stem
جهاد
سبيل
اهللا
model text
document score(s)
cleric score
times 91
times 29430
Cleric writings
modified naive
Bayes classifier
A B
training set
document score =sum
i logP(wi|A)wiP(wi|B)wi
Afraid of
Narrow
Is believed
Fear
Secondly
Know
Remains
We ask
And here
Thirdly
Effort
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Reported
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Summary
Accept
Does it
Spirit
Fidelity
Anger
Pan
Creature
Extent
Several
Updated
Completely
Under no
Street
Complex
Indeed
Differentiate
Moses
Send
For some
I got
After them
Ideas
Be taken
Get
Without
Descent
Likely
Out
One
Position
Evil
Result
Text
Signed
The Creator
Penalty
Deny
Shows
Underneath
Body
Aware of
Blessed
Aslam
I learned
Particularly
Him
Literature
Responsible
And even
Harm
Approved
Cattle
Benefit
And more
Alice
Survival
Sir
A lot
Improves
The seventh
Packages
End
Visualization
Prove
Was
The body
Use
Branches
Defeated
Take
Opportunity
Says
Money
Great
Measurement
Task
Make
Supreme
Explanation
Transferred
Amr
Toxic
Quasiminus
Risk
Trees
Patience
Proof
Heart
Before
I bear witness
Writes
Excuse
Poverty
Virgin
Actually
Punk
Story
Torment
Left
Determination
Speak
Follow
Be
Long
Sominuscalled
For himself
Conditions
On
Prophet
Together
Display
Are not
Beliefs
Never
Guidance
Still
Witness
Check
Blocker
We know
Called
Word
In
First
King
Murderer
Detail
Lord
I said
Abe
Explain
Option
Work
Said
High
Death
A large
Believe in
Comprehensive
One of them
At least
Followed by
Orientation
We have
Jurisprudential
Understand
Necessity
Since
Example
Roads
Section
Violates the
Issuance of
Far
The eyes
Fourth
Social
Ray
Originally
You want
Certainty
Solomon
Neighborhoods
Forgive
See
Never
Ordered them
Contained
All
Reminus
News
And you
For these
Friend
Love
Labbe
Call
State
Add
Walking
Hurry
Degree
Qadir
Insults
Hundred
Denied
A particular
Evil
Not
Becomes
Bone
Received
Long as
Senior
Aversion
Staff
Warning
Adults
You
Inn
It
Follow
Sin
Some
As the
Is
Lord
Provides
As well as
Wine
Both
Has become
Appearance
Demonstration
A cause
Huda
Minds
Nuclear
Means
Whenever
Qadeer
Beginning
Reality
Your
Attempt
Companions
We
Corresponding to
According to
The lowest
Order the
Address
Stand
Allah will
By virtue of
Show
Supreme
Level
Gathering
The effects of
Intensity
Change
Side
The hands
So
You
Most of them
The
See
Acknowledges
Israel
Stands
Application
God
Edition
Know
Perhaps
Show
Needs
We
What
Report
Conflict
Field
His statement
The Messenger
Capital
Us
Years
Something
According to
Exposure
Just
Hussein
New
Faces
Show
To be
Versus
Obedience
Claim
A way
Reality
See
Fancy
Significant
Few
Subminus
Discourse
Muhammad
Recognition
Safe
Their hands
Badr
On behalf of
Yourselves
Sea
Other
Phrase
The absolute
Secretariat
Agreement
Away
A people
Revelation
Cities
His brothers
Raina
To differentiate
Are
Which
Denial
Within
The soul
Face
Check
The facts
Control
Partner
Alpha
Mansoura
Were it not for
Nullity
Imams
Certificate
They said
Group
According to
Concept
Balance
Will not
Some
Pharaoh
Issued
Consideration
We want
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While
Wi
This
And all
Ourselves
Is
Other than
Student
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With
Aspects of
Line
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List
Condition
Judge
Do
They wanted
Wonder
BooksPlaces
Damage
And they
Issues
Shown
Owner
Scourge
Find
Serious
Evil
Call
Corrupt
Very
Worship
Malignant
He
Lying
Ethics
Iron
Think
Tongue
Fancies
One
IgnoranceSaid
You
Distinguished
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Denial
The apparent
Side
Powers
How
Important
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Hell
The doors
Advanced
Examples
Ill
Us
Hopes
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His faith
At least
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Put
Still
Hearts
How
Post
Kinds of
Target
View
Can
Worship
Live
Sheikhs
IncludingMeanings
Foot
Stray
Was
Wright
All
Mr
Spoiler
Court
Significance
Issued
The following
Minute
OneAcceptance
Spring
Sadiq
Shadow
Else
Owners
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Claimed
Including
Their hearts
Symptoms
Religion
Saying
Board
Time
Sons
Make
Interest
Calling
Like
Display
Claim
Their money
Probably
You
Ibrahim
Him
Quraish
Impeller
Martyrs
YearPrevious
We
Team
Spread
Predecessor
Open
Trial
Many
Minimum
I say
Intent
Announcement
Community
Disclosure
Legislation
Hit
Some of them
Prophets
Dear
Justice
Life
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We
Humiliation
We find
ZoneSend
Hypocrisy
That
Wahab
Events
Seemed
The above
Protection
Scientists
Senate
Prince
Like
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Look
You
IssueReason
The most
History
Contemporary
Regardless
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Difference
United
To order
Sham
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Hostility
We say
We
Really
Thought
Sword
Appeal
Taymiyah
All
Stage
Satisfaction
Unbelievers
Delusion
Position
All
Border
Method
A
Kharijites
Head
The most important
Shirk
Parties
How
Pain
Aba
Leadership
Infidel
Violation
Rightly
Say
Parents
He wants
Movement
Explicitly
The belief
Words
Muslim
Invasion
For
Description
Supports the
Defense
Corruption
WhateverRights
Soldiers
They
Frank
Consensus
Transfer
We
Numbers
Without
But
Progress
Yard
Roman
Them
Evidence
Man
Exegesis
Alert
Article
While
Blood
Wise
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Issues
Page
Loyalty
Joseph
Sect
Martyr
Disbelief
Rahim
Mustafa
Systems
Must
The battle
RahmanSoldiers
Issue
Time
Which
Information
The provisions of
HypocritesLaw
And others
Believe
Where
Doctrine
Christianity
Military
In the name of
Seer
Crusade
The island
Will
Our brothers
Disbelief
All
Was
Era
Pregnancy
Their religion
Apostles
They said
Arms
Interests
Those
Message
West
Assets
Young people
Fighting
Texts
Great
House
Al Qaeda
Fight
I
Uh
Sharia
Themselves
And between
Alone
Loyalty
Known
Who
People
Supporters
The greatest
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Fact
Sultan
Army
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Criminals
Word
Kill
Milli
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Mr
Order
Response
People
I
More
Party
Arabs
Unitarian
Freedom
Laws
Security
Brother
Platform
Political
Faith
Palestine
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Falsehood
Governor
Legislation
All
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Ignorance
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The infidels
AfghanistanTerrorism
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Government
Statement
Down
The enemies
The faithfulAgainst
And Enmity
Judgements
Apostates
Maqdisi
Idolaters
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Fighting
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Oppressors
Country
GodAmerica
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War
LandWay
Victory
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Excommunication
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The worldIdolatry
The nationState
Idolators
Infidel
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Jihad The
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Zaid
Like
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Directly
My nation
The
You
Legalization
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The
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By saying
Accept
I like
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And how much
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Present
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Prove
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Estimated
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Lord
Contrary to
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And possibly
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With
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To the people
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Rejection
Reform
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More
A way
Was
Once the
Stone
Should be
Deficit
Center
The sixth
Companions
And it
Type
Acts
PenaltyChildren
Skies
Bear
His hand
To reconcile
One thousandth
Follow the
Across
Jurisprudence
Fit
NotA
Hamid
Comes
Puts
Guides
Wise
Difference
Intervention
Easy
The fourth
Nine
Yemen
Raises
Sins
Remember
Rectum
As
Maintain
Del
EBay
Religiously
And other
Ruled that
Impose
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Before
The sky
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Permanent
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Aas
Promise
Resurrection
Enlarge
Number
Evidence
Enough
LaSalle
Always
Serves as
Gives
Nature
Have
Found
And
See
One day
The basis of
Different
Being
Can
Mahmoud
Past
Ezz
Back
Sex
Pursuant to
Thousands of
Advice
Massoud
Confidence
Has become
Conditions
Was
Estimate
And piety
A little
I took
Two
Prevent
Strong
Number
Arrived
The large number of
V
Hatred
Circle
Differ
Forms
Caution
Necessary
Money
Increase
Author
Twice
Role
So and so
Do
Was
Desire
More
Roy
Except
Selection
The
Has become
The contrary
Remain
Ashraf
Provide
Between them
Provided
Intended
The famous
Doubt
As
The pretext of
Salah
Latecomers
Place
Hanifa
Presence
Hearing
Want to
Specific
Concern
Yourself
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At
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Sharif
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Love
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Kaaba
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Wife
Egypt
Hit
When
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Osman
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Almighty
Suspicion
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Kitten
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See
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Read
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Roy
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Makes
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Shafei
Recent
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Trade
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Proven
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Provided that
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Take
Reminus
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Solve the
Blood
Abbas
Part
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Country
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Aisha
Guidance
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Clear
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Do
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Men
Time
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Innovation
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Doctrine
The answer
Majah
Nonminus
Women
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Khaled
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Sunan
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Old
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WillBack
Thread
Raise
First
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What
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Episode
During the
Secrecy
About
Speech
Curse
Tirmidhi
True
Almighty
Note
Voice
UsurySecond
Intention
Save
Sun
Truth
Paradise
Period
Wear
Ras
I want
Half
Building
Young
Answer
Amount
But
GoldTotal
Owner
For
Mosques
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For example
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Days
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Weak
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Links
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Do
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Ahmed
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Most of them
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Badr
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Order
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I
More
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Country
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We know
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Follow the
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Jurisprudence
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Hamid
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Hatred
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More
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Salah
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Hearing
Want to
Specific
Concern
Yourself
Families
At
Dhar
Can
Knowing
Drink
Asked
Palm
Show
There are
Wide
As
Willing
Never
Fear
Keeper
Names
Different
Study
Members
The best
Gel
Such as
Did
So
LeavesLearning
Reasons
Shed
Whole
Sayings
Adam
This
Hear
In other words
For
Lack
Right
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Sharp
Table
Light
Came
Optical
Man
I
Sharif
Asked
Terms
Then
If
Bad
Useful
His life
Mark
Seen
Halt
OneNo
About us
Exchange
Separation
Hanbal
And followers
Take
I heard
Kara
Comment
Find
Age
Because
Dispute
To be
The following
Ring
Cut
Livelihood
Agreed
Hidden
Delivers
Education
Perfection
Possible
Obtained
Certain
Paper
Angels
Foreign
Fire
For nonminus
Need
Perhaps the
Required
Interest
Saad
Years
Comes
Found
Contract
To imitate
Get
Science
Income
Quest
The establishment of
Other
Pay
A means
Has
Pay
Land
Leave
Satisfaction
Very
Desires
First
Often
Appropriate
The unseen
Knowledge
Treatment
Sin
Not
Request
The said
Account
Uncle
Education
Occurs
Combines
The
City
Great
Yam
Scholars
Jazz
Works
Service
Results
Tell
Love
Sentence
Kaaba
Lead
Close
Must
Foot
Back
Disposal
Wife
Egypt
Hit
When
And messengers
Must
Osman
Required
Grandfather
Said
Deal
Fixed
Language
Questions
Almighty
Suspicion
Out
Business
The day
Meaning
Full
The public
Virtue
Is called
Kitten
Will
See
A
Is located
Read
I
Roy
Up
Shows
Entry
Nuha
Sometimes
Status
Makes
Duty
The mind
I know
Six
Something
Feast
Preferred
HappyMeans
Character
Matt
Sins
Seven
Event
Should be
Question
Shafei
Recent
Means
In
And so on
Out
Trade
Hand
Graduation
Proven
Back
Whether
When
Relationship
Solution
Behind
Project
Problem
CameGo
Neighborhood
Provided that
Around him
Take
Reminus
Period
Solve the
Blood
Abbas
Part
Adultery
Nasser
Affect
Prayers
Four
The time
Months
Return
End
Things
He wanted
And only
Calls for
Sin
Country
Not
Aisha
Guidance
Good
Parental
Prophecy
Is
Well
Clear
Word
Prevents
And then
Of religion
Out
The third
Things
Do
Of
Pronunciation
Link
The intended
Good
Five
Born
The original
Name
Wage
Passport
Increase
Likely
Men
Time
Is
Small
Travel
I hope
Innovation
And Prevention
Doctrine
The answer
Majah
Nonminus
Women
Children
Permissible
Create
Khaled
Satan
Full
True
Sunan
Ban
Old
Enters
DoorMorocco
Existing
Directed by
And because
To be
And blessings
Ask
WillBack
Thread
Raise
First
Especially
What
Cow
Messages
Episode
During the
Secrecy
About
Speech
Curse
Tirmidhi
True
Almighty
Note
Voice
UsurySecond
Intention
Save
Sun
Truth
Paradise
Period
Wear
Ras
I want
Half
Building
Young
Answer
Amount
But
GoldTotal
Owner
For
Mosques
Disease
Necessary
Repentance
For example
Food
Be
Days
Place
Weak
Back
You
Eating
Daybreak
DeprivedRoad
Directed by
Links
Valid
Dead
Do
And companions
Eg
Chatter
Al
David
Instinct
Ahmed
Hand
Good
Night
Elimination
For saying
Image
Month
Sale
Honorable
Noble
Take
Hair
Place
Reading
Women
Be
Collection
Water
Three
Critical
Woman
The best
Person
Are
Sacred
Need
Fasting
Up
Quoting
Bukhari
House
Means
Yes
Forbidden
Pray
Ramadan
Bass
Ten
ManTime
MaySource
Narrated byMustAge
HumanImam
Money
Mosque
QuranHajj
Zakat
Her husbandWomen
minusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusltlt gtgtJihadi Not Jihadi
Word Frequency
aaaa
= 1250
= 1500
= 11000= 12000
Measurement
1 The clerics who ultimately adoptedJihadi ideology had a more limited ed-ucational network
2 Career paths are correlated withideology Non-Jihadi clerics havemore prestigious appointments Ji-hadi clerics spend more time inprison
non-JihadiJihadi
Number of appointments
Den
sity
0 2 4 6 8
00
02
04
06
08
JihadinonminusJihadi
Cleric Jihad score
Ref
eren
ces
to p
rison
minus006 minus004 minus002 000 002 004
05
1015
2025
Findings
Figure 4 Rich Nielsenrsquos Polmeth 2012
poster on a portion of his dissertationwork Note how little text there is
bull How to Make a Poster Some notes on designing a poster withbeamer (powerpoint such as for Ianrsquos poster (5) reviewed in pre-cept) We can think of creating in roughly the following steps
Within- and Between-Group Inequality Looking Beyond the Variance
ReferencesMcLanahan Sara 2004 ldquoDiverging destinies How children are faring under the second
demographic transitionrdquo Demography 41(4)607-627Western Bruce Deirdre Bloome and Christine Percheski 2008 ldquoInequality among American
families with children 1975-2005rdquo American Sociological Review 73903-920
AcknowledgmentsResearch reported in this poster was supported by The Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute
of Child Health amp Human Development of the National Institutes of Health under Award Number T32HD007163 The content is solely the responsibility of the author and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health
IanLundbergPrincetonUniversity
Has the rise in single parenthood affected aggregateinequality Prior literature using global measures ofinequality suggests a minor role yet distinct processesmay operate at the top and bottom Using CPS data toevaluate changes in the 9050 and 5010 income ratiosI find that the growth in single-parent families isassociated with increased lower-tail income inequality
Changing family structure explains about half of the risein lower-tail income inequality but almost none of theincrease in upper-tail income inequality
Prior literature demonstrates a robust associationbetween single parenthood and poverty yet suggeststhat family structure is unrelated to inequality I findthat the conclusion depends on the chosen measure ofinequality while family structure is unrelated to upper-tail income inequality it explains about half of thegrowth in lower-tail inequality
More broadly these findings confirm the need fordistributional methods in the study of inequality anddemonstrate re-weighting methods as a conceptuallysimple yet analytically flexible method for futuredistributional work
Prior research has argued that growing family incomeinequality is driven by two forces inequality in personalincomes and inequality in the pooling of those incomeswithin families By decomposing the variance of logfamily incomes Western Bloome and Percheski (2008)argue that the former is dominant most of the rise ininequality has occurred within groups defined byeducation and family structure
Variance decompositions measure inequality with asingle parameter (the variance) which characterizes theentire distribution However family structure haschanged the most among the most disadvantaged(McLanahan 2004) which suggests that lower-tailinequality may be more strongly affected by familystructure than upper-tail inequality To the extent thatvariances are influenced by outliers they may captureupper-tail inequality and miss lower-tail inequality
Overview DataandMethods
Background
SummaryofDecomposition
Conclusion
DepartmentofSociologyampOfficeofPopulationResearchilundbergprincetonedu
CurrentPopulationSurvey(CPS)1968-2013bull 2269326children(asymp49333year)bull 06excludedformissingdatabull RepresentativeofAmericanchildrenunder18(weighted)
Methods1 Stratify respondents by family structure and labor supply2 Re-weight to the 1968 distribution of relevant covariates3 Calculate inequality in the counterfactual population
Benefit We can compute any measure of inequality (not justthe variance) on the weighted counterfactual distribution
Key assumption Changing the distribution of family structureswould have no indirect effects on income inequality
Figure2Counterfactualinequalitytrends
Results
Figure3GrowthinUSfamilyincomeinequality1968-2013
Figure1Trendsinfamilystructureandlaborsupply
43 6132 3440 345 240
10203040506070
9050 income ratio 5010 income ratio
Perc
ent c
hang
e 1
968-
2013
ObservedCounterfactual No change in marriageCounterfactual No change in marriage or labor supplyCounterfactual Fixed income distribution only subgroup proportions change
Figure 5 Poster from Ian created usingPowerPoint
1 Begin with a Beamer template that makes a poster of the correctdimensions A0 (331 times 468 inches) We recommend over-leafcom as a general source of Beamer poster templates If youwant to have a specific template to use here is a link to a ver-sion of Rebeccarsquos poster (6) with content removed on Overleaf
soc 504 writing a replicationextension paper 6
if you use make sure to change some of the aesthetics so thateach poster looks different
Poster ExampleRebecca Johnson
Princeton University Department of Sociology
Important DefinitionsTwo main types of financial formulas that a state uses to allocatemoney to local education agencies (LEArsquos) to finance special educationservices State contribution makes up sim40-50 of special educationfinancing with federal sim10-15 and local revenue sim40bullWeighting financing states allocate more money to schooldistricts the more students the district places in special educationEach special education student is weighted as a multiple (eg 13)of a regular education student for funding allocations
bullCapitation financing states allocate a fixed amount of moneyto school districts that is not sensitive to the of students thedistrict places in special education by basing funding on generalstudent enrollment rather than specific placement into specialeducation
Whatrsquos the question
Does a statersquos switch to capitation financing where districts are no longerfinancially rewarded for each additional child placed special educationappear to cause a decrease in rates of special education placement If sohow does the magnitude of that decrease vary by district based on theracial and socioeconomic composition of its students
Why does it matter
bull Special education enrolls 10 to 20 of public school studentsbullExisting sociology research focuses on how an individual studentrsquos
attributes predict special education placement net of the studentrsquostrue disability (eg African-American males facing a higher risk ofplacement than white students at same levels of learning impairment)bullHow study addresses focuses on a policy context that shapesplacement net of disability status rather than an individual attribute
bullExisting economics research focuses on how fiscal incentives built intoinsurance impact diagnoses in medical care(eg upcoding based onreimbursement rates) less investigation of how fiscal incentives builtinto school funding regimes impact diagnoses children receive in theschool systemcarry with them into medical carebullHow study addresses focuses on fiscal incentives for diagnosingor not diagnosing childhood disabilities via placement into specialeducation under a specific category
Data sources
Dependent variables all by yearstate from 2000 to 2011Percentage of students enrolled Numerator NCES Common Core data onin special education IDEA Part B (3-21) recipients
Denominator NCES total public school studentsIndependent variables all by yearstate from 2000 to 2011Financing formula OSEP and NASDE 50-state survey of financing formulas
Confirmed via legislative statutesControls State unemployment rate median family income BLS ACS NCESFRPL-eligible students
1 State variation in fiscal incentivesFigure Map of distribution of financing formulas show that capitation financing is not confined toparticularly politically conservative or high-poverty regions The heat map of special education prevalencerates before any policy changes with green indicating lower rates white as the median and darker redindicating higher rates shows generally higher rates on the East Coast but particularly high rates in thispre-policy period in two of the weighting states that switch to capitation (NJ and West Virginia)
Finance category
Capitation entire time
Switched from capitation to weighting
Switched from weighting to capitation
Weighting entire time 100
125
150
175
Percentage of students placed in special education
2 Does switch to capitation causedecrease in special education rates
Approach DID treatment states = weighting states that switch to capi-tation control states = weighting states that donrsquot switch
Yit = α + β1 lowast treatmentstate(1 = yes 0 = no)+β2 lowast posttreatmentperiod(1 = yes 0 = no)+
β3 lowast treatmentstate lowast posttreatmentperiod + γ lowastXit + εit
(1)
Xit vector of controls Quantity of interest β3 Post-treatment period is defined as years after 2 out of 3states passed capitation
Treatment x minus0860lowastlowastlowast minus0950lowastlowastlowast
post-tx period (0252) (0267)
State clustered se Yes YesControls included No Yes
Note lowastplt01 lowastlowastplt005 lowastlowastlowastplt001Controls (all stateyear) percentage of studentsreceiving free or reduced price lunch (FRPL)unemployment rate median household income(logged) population (in millions) 11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Year (spring of school year)
Per
cent
age
of s
tude
nts
plac
ed in
spe
cial
edu
catio
n
GroupControl weighting states with no change
Treatment weighting state that passed capitation
Figure The graph highlights that states that switch from weighting tocapitation have higher levels than weighting states that donrsquot switch beforethe policyrsquos passage and seem to experience the sharpest decrease inrates in the year the policy goes into effect with leveling off after DIDsuggests that switch to capitation is associated with significantly lowerspecial education rates in years following policy change The magnitudeof the effect is meaningful a decrease in placement rates of 095 percentagepoints means that a state with an average of 16 of students placed inspecial education pre-capitation would be expected to see an average of1505 of students placed post-capitation
3 Synthetic control case analysis ofswitch to capitation
Motivation 1) inference problems with small treatment N (three states)2) very high special education rates in states that switch to capitationdrop might be due to unsustainable rates rather than policy change 3) iseffect driven by large drop in one state Approach construct syntheticcontrol for each treatment state Placebo test post-pre treatment RM-SPE ratio (eq 2 divide eq 3) and compare treatment statersquos ratio to controlstatesrsquo ratios
radicradicradicradicradicradicradic1
Nyearsposttxlowast 2011sum
i=txyear(Ytreatedstatei
minus Ysyntheticcontrolstatei)2 (2)
radicradicradicradicradicradicradic1
Nyearspretxlowasttxyearminus1sum
i=2000(Ytreatedstatei
minus Ysyntheticcontrolstatei)2 (3)
Figure synthetic control suggests most of the previous effect seems to be driven by a large drop inspecial education rates in New Jersey following capitation with RMSPE placebo test suggesting a lessthan 003 chance (133) the drop is due to chance since NJrsquos ratio is ranked largest among 33 statesIn contrast capitation appears to have little effect in Missouri One reason for difference lies in nuancesof financing formulas New Jersey in the pre-policy period had a stronger system of financial incentivesfor special education placement called multiple pupil weighting which not only weighted each specialeducation student as a financial multiple of a general education student but also provided higher weightsfor more expensive disabilities (eg autism) Missouri in the pre-policy period funded districts based onreported school resources spent on special education but this funding was capped according to standardsfor these resources (eg specific student-teacher ratios) West Virginia (not shown) appears similar toMissouri and also had a more modest policy shift than New Jersey
Treated
(New Jersey)
Synthetic
control
14
15
16
17
18
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Year (spring of school year)
Per
cent
age
of s
tude
nts
plac
ed in
spe
cial
edu
catio
n
ArizonaMississippi
MarylandMichigan
South CarolinaKansas
TennesseeIowa
New MexicoWashington
OregonFlorida
OhioNebraska
NevadaDelaware
IllinoisKentucky
MaineNorth Carolina
WyomingIndiana
WisconsinLouisiana
South DakotaNew YorkVermontVirginiaGeorgia
TexasOklahoma
New HampshireNew Jersey
0 1 2 3 4 5Ratio of postminustreatment to preminustreatment RMSPE
Sta
te
Treated
(Missouri)
Synthetic
control
13
14
15
16
17
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Year (spring of school year)
Per
cent
age
of s
tude
nts
plac
ed in
spe
cial
edu
catio
n
ArizonaMississippi
MichiganKansasNevadaFlorida
New MexicoSouth Carolina
IowaMissouri
WashingtonOregon
New YorkMarylandLouisianaOklahoma
OhioSouth Dakota
WyomingVermont
TennesseeNorth Carolina
WisconsinVirginiaGeorgia
NebraskaIllinois
DelawareTexas
New HampshireIndiana
KentuckyMaine
00 25 50 75 100Ratio of postminustreatment to preminustreatment RMSPE
Sta
te
4 Future directions districtheterogeneity
Figure Map shows drop in students placed in special education in the year following capitation (dis-trictrsquos of children in special education in the year immediately prior to capitation minus the districtrsquos in year capitation went into effect) Districts with higher of students eligible for free reduced price lunch(indicated by less-translucent circles) seem more highly represented among districts with large decreasesInitial regression lends support school districts with more FRPL-eligible experienced larger decrease
Atlantic
Bergen
BurlingtonCamden
Cape May
Cumberland
Essex
Gloucester
Hudson
Hunterdon
Mercer
Middlesex
Monmouth
Morris
Ocean
Passaic
Salem
Somerset
Sussex
Union
WarrenWhat happened in district in year capitation went into effect (compared to prior year)
fewer students placed
more students placed
Pre capitation minus postminuscapitation students placed in special education (positive = fewer students placed)
minus5
0
5
10
students in 0017lowastlowast 0022lowastlowast
district elig (0009) (0011)free or redprice lunch students in minus0009district who are (0014)african-americanObservations 463 463R2 0009 0010Note lowastplt01 lowastlowastplt005 lowastlowastlowastplt001
Figure 6 Poster from Rebecca createdusing Beamer
2 Separate the poster into columns using
begincolumn endcolumn
Most posters have 3-4 columns
3 Within each column you can use commands like
beginblock endblock
(for a block without a background) or
beginalertblock endalertblock
(for a block with a backgroundoutline) to separate the posterinto sections like Research question Hypotheses etc
4 Within each block you can put different combinations of Fig-ures and text (though not too much text) as you see fit
bull Getting Feedback Use the session to figure out what peopleare reacting to in your project Try out different pitches look forwhat their questions are or what claims they donrsquot buy watchwhether or not they understand your tables and figures Finallybe sure to listen to yourself or your partner What you are sayingto communicate the point of a figure or table is what should beincluded in the paperrsquos caption for that figure or table
References
Angrist J D and Lavy V (1999) Using maimonidesrsquo rule to esti-mate the effect of class size on scholastic achievement The QuarterlyJournal of Economics 114(2)533ndash575
Ho D E Imai K King G and Stuart E A (2007) Matching asnonparametric preprocessing for reducing model dependence inparametric causal inference Political analysis 15(3)199ndash236
King G (2006) Publication publication PS Political Science ampPolitics 39(01)119ndash125
King G Pan J and Roberts M E (2014) Reverse-engineeringcensorship in china Randomized experimentation and participantobservation Science 345(6199)1251722
King G Tomz M and Wittenberg J (2000) Making the mostof statistical analyses Improving interpretation and presentationAmerican journal of political science pages 347ndash361
soc 504 writing a replicationextension paper 7
Robinson D (2017) An introduction to empirical bayes Examples frombaseball statistics
Salganik M J Dodds P S and Watts D J (2006) Experimentalstudy of inequality and unpredictability in an artificial culturalmarket science 311(5762)854ndash856
- Important components to an empirical paper
- Article Format
- Supplemental Information
- Stylistic Formatting
- Figures and Tables
- Writing
- Whats a poster session
-
soc 504 writing a replicationextension paper 4
2 All tables and figures should be numbered and referencedappropriately in the article
3 Include detailed captions so that each table and figure canbe understood on itrsquos own The reader should be able to fullyunderstand the tables and figures without needing to refer backto the text Be sure to state in the caption what you want thereader to take away from the figure If you find yourself unableto write a clear statement of what you want the reader to takeaway- you should reconsider whether the table or figure isnecessary
4 Think critically about your tables and figures so that they areinterpretable to someone without your expertise Labels shouldbe understandable (eg variable names are clear) Use legendstitles axis labels judiciously to communicate your results
minus80 minus70 minus60 minus50 minus40 minus30
000
005
010
015
020
Estimated inminussample average treatment effect for the treated
Den
sity
Raw data Matcheddata
Point estimate of raw data
Figure 2 Kernel density plot (asmoothed histogram) of point estimatesof the in-sample ATT of the DemocraticSenate majority on FDA drug approvaltime across 262143 specifications Thesolid line presents a density plot of theMLEs of ATT using the matched dataset whereas the dashed line is based onthe raw data The vertical arrow showsthe point estimate from CarpenterrsquosModel 1 based on the raw data Theestimate does not match Carpenterrsquosestimate exactly because it is on a dif-ferent scale and also because of theslightly different set of predictors usedas discussed above The figure showsthat ATT estimates are considerablymore sensitive to model specificationusing the raw data as compared withthe preprocessed matched data (FromHo et al (2007))
0
25
50
75
100
028 029 030 031 032 033Batting average
dens
ity
Hank Aaron
Mike PiazzaMike Piazza
Hank Aaron
0
25
50
75
100
028 029 030 031 032 033Batting average
dens
ity
Posterior Probability of Batting Average
Figure 3 An example using all ggplotdefaults (left) and customized aesthetics(right) Robinson (2017)httpvarianceexplainedorgr
bayesian_ab_baseball
Figures and Tables
bull All figures and tables need detailed and informative captions soyour reader can understand them without referring back to themain text (see figure 2)
bull All included figures and tables need to be referenced and inter-preted in the document
bull Every figure and table in the appendix needs to be mentioned inthe main text so the reader knows what and where they are 10
10 Complete summary statistics areavailable in the Appendix in Table 1
bull Graphical defaults are not necessarily best (see figure 3)
ndash Legends can take up unnecessary space as well as make figuresharder to read Alternatively try annotating directly onto thefigure
ndash The grey background and gridline defaults of ggplot can bechanged
ndash Labels can be rotated to be more legible
ndash Proofread to ensure font size and the plot size as a whole isreadable
ndash Donrsquot let anythig be cut-off This includes titles and labels
bull Make sure positioning of the figure within the document is correctDonrsquot let things float weirdly to another page or have too muchwhitespace
bull When possible make your figures decipherable if printed in blackand white
soc 504 writing a replicationextension paper 5
Writing
bull Write for a broad audience and general interest Limit jargon andwrite clearly and concisely
bull Your readers may not be familiar with the original replicationpaper or the literature in general Give your reader enough back-ground to understand how your analysis fits in
bull Tell the reader whatrsquos at stake Why does the question matterHow do your findings inform what we think about whatrsquos atstake Whorsquos mind are you going to change about what
bull PNAS format still needs some background information (eg shortconcise literature review) and proper citations
bull Your paper should first set-up the original paper you replicatedthen clearly describe how you build and deviate from this
bull Make sure to weave together your arguments and your supportinganalysis on the backend This is your last chance to highlight yourfindings and show the reader whatrsquos at stake Leave the readerwith a strong conclusion
Whatrsquos a poster session
Poster sessions are a great way to get feedback on an ongoing project11 11 This section owes a lot Kosuke ImairsquosldquoHow to Make a Poster for SocialScience Researchrdquo handout httpimaiprincetoneduteaching
filesHowToPosterpdf
You put up a visual aid of your results (the poster) and then pitch theproject repeatedly to the passers-by typically summarizing the en-tire work in under 2 minutes Believe us- nothing cements the keyfeatures of a piece of work like being forced to repeatedly explain it
bull Your Poster is a Visual Aid Your poster is not intended to beread it is a visual aid to help you explain your argument Thus itshould have way less text than you might imagine One of Bran-donrsquos favorite posters contains very little text (see Figure 4) Thisalso means you are likely to write in short phrases rather thancomplete sentences
Adoption of Jihadi Ideology by Islamic ClericsRich Nielsen Harvard University Iacute httppeoplefasharvardedu˜rnielsen
Extensive network
Limited network
Insider career
Outsider career
Expediency
Credibility
Not Jihad
Jihad
ldquoItrsquos really all about trying to study with the prominent sheikhsand getting some kind of ijaza [certificate] from them if you canYou just try to get into peoplersquos networksrdquo
Theory
Abstract Islamic clerics with limited educational networks are more likely to adopt militant Jihadi ideology
Cleric writings
internet
lthtmlgt اجلهاد يف سبيل اهللا lthtmlgt scrape
جهاد
سبيل
اهللا
clean and stem
جهاد
سبيل
اهللا
model text
document score(s)
cleric score
times 91
times 29430
Cleric writings
modified naive
Bayes classifier
A B
training set
document score =sum
i logP(wi|A)wiP(wi|B)wi
Afraid of
Narrow
Is believed
Fear
Secondly
Know
Remains
We ask
And here
Thirdly
Effort
Displays
Reported
Other
Summary
Accept
Does it
Spirit
Fidelity
Anger
Pan
Creature
Extent
Several
Updated
Completely
Under no
Street
Complex
Indeed
Differentiate
Moses
Send
For some
I got
After them
Ideas
Be taken
Get
Without
Descent
Likely
Out
One
Position
Evil
Result
Text
Signed
The Creator
Penalty
Deny
Shows
Underneath
Body
Aware of
Blessed
Aslam
I learned
Particularly
Him
Literature
Responsible
And even
Harm
Approved
Cattle
Benefit
And more
Alice
Survival
Sir
A lot
Improves
The seventh
Packages
End
Visualization
Prove
Was
The body
Use
Branches
Defeated
Take
Opportunity
Says
Money
Great
Measurement
Task
Make
Supreme
Explanation
Transferred
Amr
Toxic
Quasiminus
Risk
Trees
Patience
Proof
Heart
Before
I bear witness
Writes
Excuse
Poverty
Virgin
Actually
Punk
Story
Torment
Left
Determination
Speak
Follow
Be
Long
Sominuscalled
For himself
Conditions
On
Prophet
Together
Display
Are not
Beliefs
Never
Guidance
Still
Witness
Check
Blocker
We know
Called
Word
In
First
King
Murderer
Detail
Lord
I said
Abe
Explain
Option
Work
Said
High
Death
A large
Believe in
Comprehensive
One of them
At least
Followed by
Orientation
We have
Jurisprudential
Understand
Necessity
Since
Example
Roads
Section
Violates the
Issuance of
Far
The eyes
Fourth
Social
Ray
Originally
You want
Certainty
Solomon
Neighborhoods
Forgive
See
Never
Ordered them
Contained
All
Reminus
News
And you
For these
Friend
Love
Labbe
Call
State
Add
Walking
Hurry
Degree
Qadir
Insults
Hundred
Denied
A particular
Evil
Not
Becomes
Bone
Received
Long as
Senior
Aversion
Staff
Warning
Adults
You
Inn
It
Follow
Sin
Some
As the
Is
Lord
Provides
As well as
Wine
Both
Has become
Appearance
Demonstration
A cause
Huda
Minds
Nuclear
Means
Whenever
Qadeer
Beginning
Reality
Your
Attempt
Companions
We
Corresponding to
According to
The lowest
Order the
Address
Stand
Allah will
By virtue of
Show
Supreme
Level
Gathering
The effects of
Intensity
Change
Side
The hands
So
You
Most of them
The
See
Acknowledges
Israel
Stands
Application
God
Edition
Know
Perhaps
Show
Needs
We
What
Report
Conflict
Field
His statement
The Messenger
Capital
Us
Years
Something
According to
Exposure
Just
Hussein
New
Faces
Show
To be
Versus
Obedience
Claim
A way
Reality
See
Fancy
Significant
Few
Subminus
Discourse
Muhammad
Recognition
Safe
Their hands
Badr
On behalf of
Yourselves
Sea
Other
Phrase
The absolute
Secretariat
Agreement
Away
A people
Revelation
Cities
His brothers
Raina
To differentiate
Are
Which
Denial
Within
The soul
Face
Check
The facts
Control
Partner
Alpha
Mansoura
Were it not for
Nullity
Imams
Certificate
They said
Group
According to
Concept
Balance
Will not
Some
Pharaoh
Issued
Consideration
We want
Economic
While
Wi
This
And all
Ourselves
Is
Other than
Student
Deliverance
With
Aspects of
Line
Confrontation
List
Condition
Judge
Do
They wanted
Wonder
BooksPlaces
Damage
And they
Issues
Shown
Owner
Scourge
Find
Serious
Evil
Call
Corrupt
Very
Worship
Malignant
He
Lying
Ethics
Iron
Think
Tongue
Fancies
One
IgnoranceSaid
You
Distinguished
Opposition
Denial
The apparent
Side
Powers
How
Important
Party
Hell
The doors
Advanced
Examples
Ill
Us
Hopes
Presence
His faith
At least
Our
Put
Still
Hearts
How
Post
Kinds of
Target
View
Can
Worship
Live
Sheikhs
IncludingMeanings
Foot
Stray
Was
Wright
All
Mr
Spoiler
Court
Significance
Issued
The following
Minute
OneAcceptance
Spring
Sadiq
Shadow
Else
Owners
Article
Champions
Claimed
Including
Their hearts
Symptoms
Religion
Saying
Board
Time
Sons
Make
Interest
Calling
Like
Display
Claim
Their money
Probably
You
Ibrahim
Him
Quraish
Impeller
Martyrs
YearPrevious
We
Team
Spread
Predecessor
Open
Trial
Many
Minimum
I say
Intent
Announcement
Community
Disclosure
Legislation
Hit
Some of them
Prophets
Dear
Justice
Life
Rules
We
Humiliation
We find
ZoneSend
Hypocrisy
That
Wahab
Events
Seemed
The above
Protection
Scientists
Senate
Prince
Like
Positions
Look
You
IssueReason
The most
History
Contemporary
Regardless
Obaid
Difference
United
To order
Sham
ImmigrationShan
Hostility
We say
We
Really
Thought
Sword
Appeal
Taymiyah
All
Stage
Satisfaction
Unbelievers
Delusion
Position
All
Border
Method
A
Kharijites
Head
The most important
Shirk
Parties
How
Pain
Aba
Leadership
Infidel
Violation
Rightly
Say
Parents
He wants
Movement
Explicitly
The belief
Words
Muslim
Invasion
For
Description
Supports the
Defense
Corruption
WhateverRights
Soldiers
They
Frank
Consensus
Transfer
We
Numbers
Without
But
Progress
Yard
Roman
Them
Evidence
Man
Exegesis
Alert
Article
While
Blood
Wise
Investigation
Issues
Page
Loyalty
Joseph
Sect
Martyr
Disbelief
Rahim
Mustafa
Systems
Must
The battle
RahmanSoldiers
Issue
Time
Which
Information
The provisions of
HypocritesLaw
And others
Believe
Where
Doctrine
Christianity
Military
In the name of
Seer
Crusade
The island
Will
Our brothers
Disbelief
All
Was
Era
Pregnancy
Their religion
Apostles
They said
Arms
Interests
Those
Message
West
Assets
Young people
Fighting
Texts
Great
House
Al Qaeda
Fight
I
Uh
Sharia
Themselves
And between
Alone
Loyalty
Known
Who
People
Supporters
The greatest
Were
Fact
Sultan
Army
Governing
Preachers
Criminals
Word
Kill
Milli
I say
Mr
Order
Response
People
I
More
Party
Arabs
Unitarian
Freedom
Laws
Security
Brother
Platform
Political
Faith
Palestine
Brotherhood
Falsehood
Governor
Legislation
All
Apostatize
Ignorance
Injustice
Worship
Iraq
The infidels
AfghanistanTerrorism
People
Government
Statement
Down
The enemies
The faithfulAgainst
And Enmity
Judgements
Apostates
Maqdisi
Idolaters
Prison
Fighting
Without
Oppressors
Country
GodAmerica
JewsForce
War
LandWay
Victory
Enemy
American
Excommunication
Killing
The worldIdolatry
The nationState
Idolators
Infidel
Monotheism
Mujahideen
Apostasy
Jihad The
Are
Zaid
Like
Newly
Directly
My nation
The
You
Legalization
Wants to
The
The
News
Prove
Opinion
Search
The nearest
To the son of
Human
By saying
Accept
I like
Consequent
We know
Rest
Indicates
Spoke
Strange
And how much
Not
Present
Bammer
Valley
Prove
Weakness
Dies
The old
Ray
Log in
ValuesIsaac
Estimated
Staff
Stronger
Century
Revolution
Requires
Known
Lord
Contrary to
Decision
Delivery
Assesses
After
Down
Eye
And possibly
Custom
Individual
Near
Series
Is
With
Fired
Tracking
Either
By himself
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To the people
Line
Doctrines
Rejection
Reform
Tender
Detection
More
A way
Was
Once the
Stone
Should be
Deficit
Center
The sixth
Companions
And it
Type
Acts
PenaltyChildren
Skies
Bear
His hand
To reconcile
One thousandth
Follow the
Across
Jurisprudence
Fit
NotA
Hamid
Comes
Puts
Guides
Wise
Difference
Intervention
Easy
The fourth
Nine
Yemen
Raises
Sins
Remember
Rectum
As
Maintain
Del
EBay
Religiously
And other
Ruled that
Impose
Is
Before
The sky
Charity
Permanent
I see
Aas
Promise
Resurrection
Enlarge
Number
Evidence
Enough
LaSalle
Always
Serves as
Gives
Nature
Have
Found
And
See
One day
The basis of
Different
Being
Can
Mahmoud
Past
Ezz
Back
Sex
Pursuant to
Thousands of
Advice
Massoud
Confidence
Has become
Conditions
Was
Estimate
And piety
A little
I took
Two
Prevent
Strong
Number
Arrived
The large number of
V
Hatred
Circle
Differ
Forms
Caution
Necessary
Money
Increase
Author
Twice
Role
So and so
Do
Was
Desire
More
Roy
Except
Selection
The
Has become
The contrary
Remain
Ashraf
Provide
Between them
Provided
Intended
The famous
Doubt
As
The pretext of
Salah
Latecomers
Place
Hanifa
Presence
Hearing
Want to
Specific
Concern
Yourself
Families
At
Dhar
Can
Knowing
Drink
Asked
Palm
Show
There are
Wide
As
Willing
Never
Fear
Keeper
Names
Different
Study
Members
The best
Gel
Such as
Did
So
LeavesLearning
Reasons
Shed
Whole
Sayings
Adam
This
Hear
In other words
For
Lack
Right
Diligence
Sharp
Table
Light
Came
Optical
Man
I
Sharif
Asked
Terms
Then
If
Bad
Useful
His life
Mark
Seen
Halt
OneNo
About us
Exchange
Separation
Hanbal
And followers
Take
I heard
Kara
Comment
Find
Age
Because
Dispute
To be
The following
Ring
Cut
Livelihood
Agreed
Hidden
Delivers
Education
Perfection
Possible
Obtained
Certain
Paper
Angels
Foreign
Fire
For nonminus
Need
Perhaps the
Required
Interest
Saad
Years
Comes
Found
Contract
To imitate
Get
Science
Income
Quest
The establishment of
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Pay
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Leave
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Desires
First
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The said
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Uncle
Education
Occurs
Combines
The
City
Great
Yam
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Jazz
Works
Service
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Tell
Love
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Kaaba
Lead
Close
Must
Foot
Back
Disposal
Wife
Egypt
Hit
When
And messengers
Must
Osman
Required
Grandfather
Said
Deal
Fixed
Language
Questions
Almighty
Suspicion
Out
Business
The day
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The public
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Kitten
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See
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Read
I
Roy
Up
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Nuha
Sometimes
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Makes
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The mind
I know
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Something
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Character
Matt
Sins
Seven
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Should be
Question
Shafei
Recent
Means
In
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Out
Trade
Hand
Graduation
Proven
Back
Whether
When
Relationship
Solution
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Project
Problem
CameGo
Neighborhood
Provided that
Around him
Take
Reminus
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Solve the
Blood
Abbas
Part
Adultery
Nasser
Affect
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End
Things
He wanted
And only
Calls for
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Country
Not
Aisha
Guidance
Good
Parental
Prophecy
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Well
Clear
Word
Prevents
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Out
The third
Things
Do
Of
Pronunciation
Link
The intended
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Five
Born
The original
Name
Wage
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Increase
Likely
Men
Time
Is
Small
Travel
I hope
Innovation
And Prevention
Doctrine
The answer
Majah
Nonminus
Women
Children
Permissible
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Khaled
Satan
Full
True
Sunan
Ban
Old
Enters
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Existing
Directed by
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And blessings
Ask
WillBack
Thread
Raise
First
Especially
What
Cow
Messages
Episode
During the
Secrecy
About
Speech
Curse
Tirmidhi
True
Almighty
Note
Voice
UsurySecond
Intention
Save
Sun
Truth
Paradise
Period
Wear
Ras
I want
Half
Building
Young
Answer
Amount
But
GoldTotal
Owner
For
Mosques
Disease
Necessary
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For example
Food
Be
Days
Place
Weak
Back
You
Eating
Daybreak
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Directed by
Links
Valid
Dead
Do
And companions
Eg
Chatter
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David
Instinct
Ahmed
Hand
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Elimination
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Image
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Hair
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Women
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Collection
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Sacred
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Quoting
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Means
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Pray
Ramadan
Bass
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ManTime
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Her husbandWomen
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Jurisprudential
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It
Follow
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Allah will
By virtue of
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Most of them
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Acknowledges
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God
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Know
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Show
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According to
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Subminus
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Muhammad
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Safe
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Badr
On behalf of
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Other
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Away
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Revelation
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His brothers
Raina
To differentiate
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Face
Check
The facts
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Were it not for
Nullity
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Some
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We want
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Sheikhs
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Order
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I
More
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Country
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We know
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The sixth
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Bear
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Follow the
Across
Jurisprudence
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Hamid
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Enlarge
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Mahmoud
Past
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Pursuant to
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Massoud
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Estimate
And piety
A little
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Hatred
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More
Roy
Except
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The contrary
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Ashraf
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Between them
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The famous
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As
The pretext of
Salah
Latecomers
Place
Hanifa
Presence
Hearing
Want to
Specific
Concern
Yourself
Families
At
Dhar
Can
Knowing
Drink
Asked
Palm
Show
There are
Wide
As
Willing
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Fear
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Different
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The best
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This
Hear
In other words
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I
Sharif
Asked
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If
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Seen
Halt
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About us
Exchange
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Hanbal
And followers
Take
I heard
Kara
Comment
Find
Age
Because
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The following
Ring
Cut
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Agreed
Hidden
Delivers
Education
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Possible
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Angels
Foreign
Fire
For nonminus
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Perhaps the
Required
Interest
Saad
Years
Comes
Found
Contract
To imitate
Get
Science
Income
Quest
The establishment of
Other
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A means
Has
Pay
Land
Leave
Satisfaction
Very
Desires
First
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The unseen
Knowledge
Treatment
Sin
Not
Request
The said
Account
Uncle
Education
Occurs
Combines
The
City
Great
Yam
Scholars
Jazz
Works
Service
Results
Tell
Love
Sentence
Kaaba
Lead
Close
Must
Foot
Back
Disposal
Wife
Egypt
Hit
When
And messengers
Must
Osman
Required
Grandfather
Said
Deal
Fixed
Language
Questions
Almighty
Suspicion
Out
Business
The day
Meaning
Full
The public
Virtue
Is called
Kitten
Will
See
A
Is located
Read
I
Roy
Up
Shows
Entry
Nuha
Sometimes
Status
Makes
Duty
The mind
I know
Six
Something
Feast
Preferred
HappyMeans
Character
Matt
Sins
Seven
Event
Should be
Question
Shafei
Recent
Means
In
And so on
Out
Trade
Hand
Graduation
Proven
Back
Whether
When
Relationship
Solution
Behind
Project
Problem
CameGo
Neighborhood
Provided that
Around him
Take
Reminus
Period
Solve the
Blood
Abbas
Part
Adultery
Nasser
Affect
Prayers
Four
The time
Months
Return
End
Things
He wanted
And only
Calls for
Sin
Country
Not
Aisha
Guidance
Good
Parental
Prophecy
Is
Well
Clear
Word
Prevents
And then
Of religion
Out
The third
Things
Do
Of
Pronunciation
Link
The intended
Good
Five
Born
The original
Name
Wage
Passport
Increase
Likely
Men
Time
Is
Small
Travel
I hope
Innovation
And Prevention
Doctrine
The answer
Majah
Nonminus
Women
Children
Permissible
Create
Khaled
Satan
Full
True
Sunan
Ban
Old
Enters
DoorMorocco
Existing
Directed by
And because
To be
And blessings
Ask
WillBack
Thread
Raise
First
Especially
What
Cow
Messages
Episode
During the
Secrecy
About
Speech
Curse
Tirmidhi
True
Almighty
Note
Voice
UsurySecond
Intention
Save
Sun
Truth
Paradise
Period
Wear
Ras
I want
Half
Building
Young
Answer
Amount
But
GoldTotal
Owner
For
Mosques
Disease
Necessary
Repentance
For example
Food
Be
Days
Place
Weak
Back
You
Eating
Daybreak
DeprivedRoad
Directed by
Links
Valid
Dead
Do
And companions
Eg
Chatter
Al
David
Instinct
Ahmed
Hand
Good
Night
Elimination
For saying
Image
Month
Sale
Honorable
Noble
Take
Hair
Place
Reading
Women
Be
Collection
Water
Three
Critical
Woman
The best
Person
Are
Sacred
Need
Fasting
Up
Quoting
Bukhari
House
Means
Yes
Forbidden
Pray
Ramadan
Bass
Ten
ManTime
MaySource
Narrated byMustAge
HumanImam
Money
Mosque
QuranHajj
Zakat
Her husbandWomen
minusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusltlt gtgtJihadi Not Jihadi
Word Frequency
aaaa
= 1250
= 1500
= 11000= 12000
Measurement
1 The clerics who ultimately adoptedJihadi ideology had a more limited ed-ucational network
2 Career paths are correlated withideology Non-Jihadi clerics havemore prestigious appointments Ji-hadi clerics spend more time inprison
non-JihadiJihadi
Number of appointments
Den
sity
0 2 4 6 8
00
02
04
06
08
JihadinonminusJihadi
Cleric Jihad score
Ref
eren
ces
to p
rison
minus006 minus004 minus002 000 002 004
05
1015
2025
Findings
Figure 4 Rich Nielsenrsquos Polmeth 2012
poster on a portion of his dissertationwork Note how little text there is
bull How to Make a Poster Some notes on designing a poster withbeamer (powerpoint such as for Ianrsquos poster (5) reviewed in pre-cept) We can think of creating in roughly the following steps
Within- and Between-Group Inequality Looking Beyond the Variance
ReferencesMcLanahan Sara 2004 ldquoDiverging destinies How children are faring under the second
demographic transitionrdquo Demography 41(4)607-627Western Bruce Deirdre Bloome and Christine Percheski 2008 ldquoInequality among American
families with children 1975-2005rdquo American Sociological Review 73903-920
AcknowledgmentsResearch reported in this poster was supported by The Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute
of Child Health amp Human Development of the National Institutes of Health under Award Number T32HD007163 The content is solely the responsibility of the author and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health
IanLundbergPrincetonUniversity
Has the rise in single parenthood affected aggregateinequality Prior literature using global measures ofinequality suggests a minor role yet distinct processesmay operate at the top and bottom Using CPS data toevaluate changes in the 9050 and 5010 income ratiosI find that the growth in single-parent families isassociated with increased lower-tail income inequality
Changing family structure explains about half of the risein lower-tail income inequality but almost none of theincrease in upper-tail income inequality
Prior literature demonstrates a robust associationbetween single parenthood and poverty yet suggeststhat family structure is unrelated to inequality I findthat the conclusion depends on the chosen measure ofinequality while family structure is unrelated to upper-tail income inequality it explains about half of thegrowth in lower-tail inequality
More broadly these findings confirm the need fordistributional methods in the study of inequality anddemonstrate re-weighting methods as a conceptuallysimple yet analytically flexible method for futuredistributional work
Prior research has argued that growing family incomeinequality is driven by two forces inequality in personalincomes and inequality in the pooling of those incomeswithin families By decomposing the variance of logfamily incomes Western Bloome and Percheski (2008)argue that the former is dominant most of the rise ininequality has occurred within groups defined byeducation and family structure
Variance decompositions measure inequality with asingle parameter (the variance) which characterizes theentire distribution However family structure haschanged the most among the most disadvantaged(McLanahan 2004) which suggests that lower-tailinequality may be more strongly affected by familystructure than upper-tail inequality To the extent thatvariances are influenced by outliers they may captureupper-tail inequality and miss lower-tail inequality
Overview DataandMethods
Background
SummaryofDecomposition
Conclusion
DepartmentofSociologyampOfficeofPopulationResearchilundbergprincetonedu
CurrentPopulationSurvey(CPS)1968-2013bull 2269326children(asymp49333year)bull 06excludedformissingdatabull RepresentativeofAmericanchildrenunder18(weighted)
Methods1 Stratify respondents by family structure and labor supply2 Re-weight to the 1968 distribution of relevant covariates3 Calculate inequality in the counterfactual population
Benefit We can compute any measure of inequality (not justthe variance) on the weighted counterfactual distribution
Key assumption Changing the distribution of family structureswould have no indirect effects on income inequality
Figure2Counterfactualinequalitytrends
Results
Figure3GrowthinUSfamilyincomeinequality1968-2013
Figure1Trendsinfamilystructureandlaborsupply
43 6132 3440 345 240
10203040506070
9050 income ratio 5010 income ratio
Perc
ent c
hang
e 1
968-
2013
ObservedCounterfactual No change in marriageCounterfactual No change in marriage or labor supplyCounterfactual Fixed income distribution only subgroup proportions change
Figure 5 Poster from Ian created usingPowerPoint
1 Begin with a Beamer template that makes a poster of the correctdimensions A0 (331 times 468 inches) We recommend over-leafcom as a general source of Beamer poster templates If youwant to have a specific template to use here is a link to a ver-sion of Rebeccarsquos poster (6) with content removed on Overleaf
soc 504 writing a replicationextension paper 6
if you use make sure to change some of the aesthetics so thateach poster looks different
Poster ExampleRebecca Johnson
Princeton University Department of Sociology
Important DefinitionsTwo main types of financial formulas that a state uses to allocatemoney to local education agencies (LEArsquos) to finance special educationservices State contribution makes up sim40-50 of special educationfinancing with federal sim10-15 and local revenue sim40bullWeighting financing states allocate more money to schooldistricts the more students the district places in special educationEach special education student is weighted as a multiple (eg 13)of a regular education student for funding allocations
bullCapitation financing states allocate a fixed amount of moneyto school districts that is not sensitive to the of students thedistrict places in special education by basing funding on generalstudent enrollment rather than specific placement into specialeducation
Whatrsquos the question
Does a statersquos switch to capitation financing where districts are no longerfinancially rewarded for each additional child placed special educationappear to cause a decrease in rates of special education placement If sohow does the magnitude of that decrease vary by district based on theracial and socioeconomic composition of its students
Why does it matter
bull Special education enrolls 10 to 20 of public school studentsbullExisting sociology research focuses on how an individual studentrsquos
attributes predict special education placement net of the studentrsquostrue disability (eg African-American males facing a higher risk ofplacement than white students at same levels of learning impairment)bullHow study addresses focuses on a policy context that shapesplacement net of disability status rather than an individual attribute
bullExisting economics research focuses on how fiscal incentives built intoinsurance impact diagnoses in medical care(eg upcoding based onreimbursement rates) less investigation of how fiscal incentives builtinto school funding regimes impact diagnoses children receive in theschool systemcarry with them into medical carebullHow study addresses focuses on fiscal incentives for diagnosingor not diagnosing childhood disabilities via placement into specialeducation under a specific category
Data sources
Dependent variables all by yearstate from 2000 to 2011Percentage of students enrolled Numerator NCES Common Core data onin special education IDEA Part B (3-21) recipients
Denominator NCES total public school studentsIndependent variables all by yearstate from 2000 to 2011Financing formula OSEP and NASDE 50-state survey of financing formulas
Confirmed via legislative statutesControls State unemployment rate median family income BLS ACS NCESFRPL-eligible students
1 State variation in fiscal incentivesFigure Map of distribution of financing formulas show that capitation financing is not confined toparticularly politically conservative or high-poverty regions The heat map of special education prevalencerates before any policy changes with green indicating lower rates white as the median and darker redindicating higher rates shows generally higher rates on the East Coast but particularly high rates in thispre-policy period in two of the weighting states that switch to capitation (NJ and West Virginia)
Finance category
Capitation entire time
Switched from capitation to weighting
Switched from weighting to capitation
Weighting entire time 100
125
150
175
Percentage of students placed in special education
2 Does switch to capitation causedecrease in special education rates
Approach DID treatment states = weighting states that switch to capi-tation control states = weighting states that donrsquot switch
Yit = α + β1 lowast treatmentstate(1 = yes 0 = no)+β2 lowast posttreatmentperiod(1 = yes 0 = no)+
β3 lowast treatmentstate lowast posttreatmentperiod + γ lowastXit + εit
(1)
Xit vector of controls Quantity of interest β3 Post-treatment period is defined as years after 2 out of 3states passed capitation
Treatment x minus0860lowastlowastlowast minus0950lowastlowastlowast
post-tx period (0252) (0267)
State clustered se Yes YesControls included No Yes
Note lowastplt01 lowastlowastplt005 lowastlowastlowastplt001Controls (all stateyear) percentage of studentsreceiving free or reduced price lunch (FRPL)unemployment rate median household income(logged) population (in millions) 11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Year (spring of school year)
Per
cent
age
of s
tude
nts
plac
ed in
spe
cial
edu
catio
n
GroupControl weighting states with no change
Treatment weighting state that passed capitation
Figure The graph highlights that states that switch from weighting tocapitation have higher levels than weighting states that donrsquot switch beforethe policyrsquos passage and seem to experience the sharpest decrease inrates in the year the policy goes into effect with leveling off after DIDsuggests that switch to capitation is associated with significantly lowerspecial education rates in years following policy change The magnitudeof the effect is meaningful a decrease in placement rates of 095 percentagepoints means that a state with an average of 16 of students placed inspecial education pre-capitation would be expected to see an average of1505 of students placed post-capitation
3 Synthetic control case analysis ofswitch to capitation
Motivation 1) inference problems with small treatment N (three states)2) very high special education rates in states that switch to capitationdrop might be due to unsustainable rates rather than policy change 3) iseffect driven by large drop in one state Approach construct syntheticcontrol for each treatment state Placebo test post-pre treatment RM-SPE ratio (eq 2 divide eq 3) and compare treatment statersquos ratio to controlstatesrsquo ratios
radicradicradicradicradicradicradic1
Nyearsposttxlowast 2011sum
i=txyear(Ytreatedstatei
minus Ysyntheticcontrolstatei)2 (2)
radicradicradicradicradicradicradic1
Nyearspretxlowasttxyearminus1sum
i=2000(Ytreatedstatei
minus Ysyntheticcontrolstatei)2 (3)
Figure synthetic control suggests most of the previous effect seems to be driven by a large drop inspecial education rates in New Jersey following capitation with RMSPE placebo test suggesting a lessthan 003 chance (133) the drop is due to chance since NJrsquos ratio is ranked largest among 33 statesIn contrast capitation appears to have little effect in Missouri One reason for difference lies in nuancesof financing formulas New Jersey in the pre-policy period had a stronger system of financial incentivesfor special education placement called multiple pupil weighting which not only weighted each specialeducation student as a financial multiple of a general education student but also provided higher weightsfor more expensive disabilities (eg autism) Missouri in the pre-policy period funded districts based onreported school resources spent on special education but this funding was capped according to standardsfor these resources (eg specific student-teacher ratios) West Virginia (not shown) appears similar toMissouri and also had a more modest policy shift than New Jersey
Treated
(New Jersey)
Synthetic
control
14
15
16
17
18
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Year (spring of school year)
Per
cent
age
of s
tude
nts
plac
ed in
spe
cial
edu
catio
n
ArizonaMississippi
MarylandMichigan
South CarolinaKansas
TennesseeIowa
New MexicoWashington
OregonFlorida
OhioNebraska
NevadaDelaware
IllinoisKentucky
MaineNorth Carolina
WyomingIndiana
WisconsinLouisiana
South DakotaNew YorkVermontVirginiaGeorgia
TexasOklahoma
New HampshireNew Jersey
0 1 2 3 4 5Ratio of postminustreatment to preminustreatment RMSPE
Sta
te
Treated
(Missouri)
Synthetic
control
13
14
15
16
17
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Year (spring of school year)
Per
cent
age
of s
tude
nts
plac
ed in
spe
cial
edu
catio
n
ArizonaMississippi
MichiganKansasNevadaFlorida
New MexicoSouth Carolina
IowaMissouri
WashingtonOregon
New YorkMarylandLouisianaOklahoma
OhioSouth Dakota
WyomingVermont
TennesseeNorth Carolina
WisconsinVirginiaGeorgia
NebraskaIllinois
DelawareTexas
New HampshireIndiana
KentuckyMaine
00 25 50 75 100Ratio of postminustreatment to preminustreatment RMSPE
Sta
te
4 Future directions districtheterogeneity
Figure Map shows drop in students placed in special education in the year following capitation (dis-trictrsquos of children in special education in the year immediately prior to capitation minus the districtrsquos in year capitation went into effect) Districts with higher of students eligible for free reduced price lunch(indicated by less-translucent circles) seem more highly represented among districts with large decreasesInitial regression lends support school districts with more FRPL-eligible experienced larger decrease
Atlantic
Bergen
BurlingtonCamden
Cape May
Cumberland
Essex
Gloucester
Hudson
Hunterdon
Mercer
Middlesex
Monmouth
Morris
Ocean
Passaic
Salem
Somerset
Sussex
Union
WarrenWhat happened in district in year capitation went into effect (compared to prior year)
fewer students placed
more students placed
Pre capitation minus postminuscapitation students placed in special education (positive = fewer students placed)
minus5
0
5
10
students in 0017lowastlowast 0022lowastlowast
district elig (0009) (0011)free or redprice lunch students in minus0009district who are (0014)african-americanObservations 463 463R2 0009 0010Note lowastplt01 lowastlowastplt005 lowastlowastlowastplt001
Figure 6 Poster from Rebecca createdusing Beamer
2 Separate the poster into columns using
begincolumn endcolumn
Most posters have 3-4 columns
3 Within each column you can use commands like
beginblock endblock
(for a block without a background) or
beginalertblock endalertblock
(for a block with a backgroundoutline) to separate the posterinto sections like Research question Hypotheses etc
4 Within each block you can put different combinations of Fig-ures and text (though not too much text) as you see fit
bull Getting Feedback Use the session to figure out what peopleare reacting to in your project Try out different pitches look forwhat their questions are or what claims they donrsquot buy watchwhether or not they understand your tables and figures Finallybe sure to listen to yourself or your partner What you are sayingto communicate the point of a figure or table is what should beincluded in the paperrsquos caption for that figure or table
References
Angrist J D and Lavy V (1999) Using maimonidesrsquo rule to esti-mate the effect of class size on scholastic achievement The QuarterlyJournal of Economics 114(2)533ndash575
Ho D E Imai K King G and Stuart E A (2007) Matching asnonparametric preprocessing for reducing model dependence inparametric causal inference Political analysis 15(3)199ndash236
King G (2006) Publication publication PS Political Science ampPolitics 39(01)119ndash125
King G Pan J and Roberts M E (2014) Reverse-engineeringcensorship in china Randomized experimentation and participantobservation Science 345(6199)1251722
King G Tomz M and Wittenberg J (2000) Making the mostof statistical analyses Improving interpretation and presentationAmerican journal of political science pages 347ndash361
soc 504 writing a replicationextension paper 7
Robinson D (2017) An introduction to empirical bayes Examples frombaseball statistics
Salganik M J Dodds P S and Watts D J (2006) Experimentalstudy of inequality and unpredictability in an artificial culturalmarket science 311(5762)854ndash856
- Important components to an empirical paper
- Article Format
- Supplemental Information
- Stylistic Formatting
- Figures and Tables
- Writing
- Whats a poster session
-
soc 504 writing a replicationextension paper 5
Writing
bull Write for a broad audience and general interest Limit jargon andwrite clearly and concisely
bull Your readers may not be familiar with the original replicationpaper or the literature in general Give your reader enough back-ground to understand how your analysis fits in
bull Tell the reader whatrsquos at stake Why does the question matterHow do your findings inform what we think about whatrsquos atstake Whorsquos mind are you going to change about what
bull PNAS format still needs some background information (eg shortconcise literature review) and proper citations
bull Your paper should first set-up the original paper you replicatedthen clearly describe how you build and deviate from this
bull Make sure to weave together your arguments and your supportinganalysis on the backend This is your last chance to highlight yourfindings and show the reader whatrsquos at stake Leave the readerwith a strong conclusion
Whatrsquos a poster session
Poster sessions are a great way to get feedback on an ongoing project11 11 This section owes a lot Kosuke ImairsquosldquoHow to Make a Poster for SocialScience Researchrdquo handout httpimaiprincetoneduteaching
filesHowToPosterpdf
You put up a visual aid of your results (the poster) and then pitch theproject repeatedly to the passers-by typically summarizing the en-tire work in under 2 minutes Believe us- nothing cements the keyfeatures of a piece of work like being forced to repeatedly explain it
bull Your Poster is a Visual Aid Your poster is not intended to beread it is a visual aid to help you explain your argument Thus itshould have way less text than you might imagine One of Bran-donrsquos favorite posters contains very little text (see Figure 4) Thisalso means you are likely to write in short phrases rather thancomplete sentences
Adoption of Jihadi Ideology by Islamic ClericsRich Nielsen Harvard University Iacute httppeoplefasharvardedu˜rnielsen
Extensive network
Limited network
Insider career
Outsider career
Expediency
Credibility
Not Jihad
Jihad
ldquoItrsquos really all about trying to study with the prominent sheikhsand getting some kind of ijaza [certificate] from them if you canYou just try to get into peoplersquos networksrdquo
Theory
Abstract Islamic clerics with limited educational networks are more likely to adopt militant Jihadi ideology
Cleric writings
internet
lthtmlgt اجلهاد يف سبيل اهللا lthtmlgt scrape
جهاد
سبيل
اهللا
clean and stem
جهاد
سبيل
اهللا
model text
document score(s)
cleric score
times 91
times 29430
Cleric writings
modified naive
Bayes classifier
A B
training set
document score =sum
i logP(wi|A)wiP(wi|B)wi
Afraid of
Narrow
Is believed
Fear
Secondly
Know
Remains
We ask
And here
Thirdly
Effort
Displays
Reported
Other
Summary
Accept
Does it
Spirit
Fidelity
Anger
Pan
Creature
Extent
Several
Updated
Completely
Under no
Street
Complex
Indeed
Differentiate
Moses
Send
For some
I got
After them
Ideas
Be taken
Get
Without
Descent
Likely
Out
One
Position
Evil
Result
Text
Signed
The Creator
Penalty
Deny
Shows
Underneath
Body
Aware of
Blessed
Aslam
I learned
Particularly
Him
Literature
Responsible
And even
Harm
Approved
Cattle
Benefit
And more
Alice
Survival
Sir
A lot
Improves
The seventh
Packages
End
Visualization
Prove
Was
The body
Use
Branches
Defeated
Take
Opportunity
Says
Money
Great
Measurement
Task
Make
Supreme
Explanation
Transferred
Amr
Toxic
Quasiminus
Risk
Trees
Patience
Proof
Heart
Before
I bear witness
Writes
Excuse
Poverty
Virgin
Actually
Punk
Story
Torment
Left
Determination
Speak
Follow
Be
Long
Sominuscalled
For himself
Conditions
On
Prophet
Together
Display
Are not
Beliefs
Never
Guidance
Still
Witness
Check
Blocker
We know
Called
Word
In
First
King
Murderer
Detail
Lord
I said
Abe
Explain
Option
Work
Said
High
Death
A large
Believe in
Comprehensive
One of them
At least
Followed by
Orientation
We have
Jurisprudential
Understand
Necessity
Since
Example
Roads
Section
Violates the
Issuance of
Far
The eyes
Fourth
Social
Ray
Originally
You want
Certainty
Solomon
Neighborhoods
Forgive
See
Never
Ordered them
Contained
All
Reminus
News
And you
For these
Friend
Love
Labbe
Call
State
Add
Walking
Hurry
Degree
Qadir
Insults
Hundred
Denied
A particular
Evil
Not
Becomes
Bone
Received
Long as
Senior
Aversion
Staff
Warning
Adults
You
Inn
It
Follow
Sin
Some
As the
Is
Lord
Provides
As well as
Wine
Both
Has become
Appearance
Demonstration
A cause
Huda
Minds
Nuclear
Means
Whenever
Qadeer
Beginning
Reality
Your
Attempt
Companions
We
Corresponding to
According to
The lowest
Order the
Address
Stand
Allah will
By virtue of
Show
Supreme
Level
Gathering
The effects of
Intensity
Change
Side
The hands
So
You
Most of them
The
See
Acknowledges
Israel
Stands
Application
God
Edition
Know
Perhaps
Show
Needs
We
What
Report
Conflict
Field
His statement
The Messenger
Capital
Us
Years
Something
According to
Exposure
Just
Hussein
New
Faces
Show
To be
Versus
Obedience
Claim
A way
Reality
See
Fancy
Significant
Few
Subminus
Discourse
Muhammad
Recognition
Safe
Their hands
Badr
On behalf of
Yourselves
Sea
Other
Phrase
The absolute
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Agreement
Away
A people
Revelation
Cities
His brothers
Raina
To differentiate
Are
Which
Denial
Within
The soul
Face
Check
The facts
Control
Partner
Alpha
Mansoura
Were it not for
Nullity
Imams
Certificate
They said
Group
According to
Concept
Balance
Will not
Some
Pharaoh
Issued
Consideration
We want
Economic
While
Wi
This
And all
Ourselves
Is
Other than
Student
Deliverance
With
Aspects of
Line
Confrontation
List
Condition
Judge
Do
They wanted
Wonder
BooksPlaces
Damage
And they
Issues
Shown
Owner
Scourge
Find
Serious
Evil
Call
Corrupt
Very
Worship
Malignant
He
Lying
Ethics
Iron
Think
Tongue
Fancies
One
IgnoranceSaid
You
Distinguished
Opposition
Denial
The apparent
Side
Powers
How
Important
Party
Hell
The doors
Advanced
Examples
Ill
Us
Hopes
Presence
His faith
At least
Our
Put
Still
Hearts
How
Post
Kinds of
Target
View
Can
Worship
Live
Sheikhs
IncludingMeanings
Foot
Stray
Was
Wright
All
Mr
Spoiler
Court
Significance
Issued
The following
Minute
OneAcceptance
Spring
Sadiq
Shadow
Else
Owners
Article
Champions
Claimed
Including
Their hearts
Symptoms
Religion
Saying
Board
Time
Sons
Make
Interest
Calling
Like
Display
Claim
Their money
Probably
You
Ibrahim
Him
Quraish
Impeller
Martyrs
YearPrevious
We
Team
Spread
Predecessor
Open
Trial
Many
Minimum
I say
Intent
Announcement
Community
Disclosure
Legislation
Hit
Some of them
Prophets
Dear
Justice
Life
Rules
We
Humiliation
We find
ZoneSend
Hypocrisy
That
Wahab
Events
Seemed
The above
Protection
Scientists
Senate
Prince
Like
Positions
Look
You
IssueReason
The most
History
Contemporary
Regardless
Obaid
Difference
United
To order
Sham
ImmigrationShan
Hostility
We say
We
Really
Thought
Sword
Appeal
Taymiyah
All
Stage
Satisfaction
Unbelievers
Delusion
Position
All
Border
Method
A
Kharijites
Head
The most important
Shirk
Parties
How
Pain
Aba
Leadership
Infidel
Violation
Rightly
Say
Parents
He wants
Movement
Explicitly
The belief
Words
Muslim
Invasion
For
Description
Supports the
Defense
Corruption
WhateverRights
Soldiers
They
Frank
Consensus
Transfer
We
Numbers
Without
But
Progress
Yard
Roman
Them
Evidence
Man
Exegesis
Alert
Article
While
Blood
Wise
Investigation
Issues
Page
Loyalty
Joseph
Sect
Martyr
Disbelief
Rahim
Mustafa
Systems
Must
The battle
RahmanSoldiers
Issue
Time
Which
Information
The provisions of
HypocritesLaw
And others
Believe
Where
Doctrine
Christianity
Military
In the name of
Seer
Crusade
The island
Will
Our brothers
Disbelief
All
Was
Era
Pregnancy
Their religion
Apostles
They said
Arms
Interests
Those
Message
West
Assets
Young people
Fighting
Texts
Great
House
Al Qaeda
Fight
I
Uh
Sharia
Themselves
And between
Alone
Loyalty
Known
Who
People
Supporters
The greatest
Were
Fact
Sultan
Army
Governing
Preachers
Criminals
Word
Kill
Milli
I say
Mr
Order
Response
People
I
More
Party
Arabs
Unitarian
Freedom
Laws
Security
Brother
Platform
Political
Faith
Palestine
Brotherhood
Falsehood
Governor
Legislation
All
Apostatize
Ignorance
Injustice
Worship
Iraq
The infidels
AfghanistanTerrorism
People
Government
Statement
Down
The enemies
The faithfulAgainst
And Enmity
Judgements
Apostates
Maqdisi
Idolaters
Prison
Fighting
Without
Oppressors
Country
GodAmerica
JewsForce
War
LandWay
Victory
Enemy
American
Excommunication
Killing
The worldIdolatry
The nationState
Idolators
Infidel
Monotheism
Mujahideen
Apostasy
Jihad The
Are
Zaid
Like
Newly
Directly
My nation
The
You
Legalization
Wants to
The
The
News
Prove
Opinion
Search
The nearest
To the son of
Human
By saying
Accept
I like
Consequent
We know
Rest
Indicates
Spoke
Strange
And how much
Not
Present
Bammer
Valley
Prove
Weakness
Dies
The old
Ray
Log in
ValuesIsaac
Estimated
Staff
Stronger
Century
Revolution
Requires
Known
Lord
Contrary to
Decision
Delivery
Assesses
After
Down
Eye
And possibly
Custom
Individual
Near
Series
Is
With
Fired
Tracking
Either
By himself
Obstacle
To the people
Line
Doctrines
Rejection
Reform
Tender
Detection
More
A way
Was
Once the
Stone
Should be
Deficit
Center
The sixth
Companions
And it
Type
Acts
PenaltyChildren
Skies
Bear
His hand
To reconcile
One thousandth
Follow the
Across
Jurisprudence
Fit
NotA
Hamid
Comes
Puts
Guides
Wise
Difference
Intervention
Easy
The fourth
Nine
Yemen
Raises
Sins
Remember
Rectum
As
Maintain
Del
EBay
Religiously
And other
Ruled that
Impose
Is
Before
The sky
Charity
Permanent
I see
Aas
Promise
Resurrection
Enlarge
Number
Evidence
Enough
LaSalle
Always
Serves as
Gives
Nature
Have
Found
And
See
One day
The basis of
Different
Being
Can
Mahmoud
Past
Ezz
Back
Sex
Pursuant to
Thousands of
Advice
Massoud
Confidence
Has become
Conditions
Was
Estimate
And piety
A little
I took
Two
Prevent
Strong
Number
Arrived
The large number of
V
Hatred
Circle
Differ
Forms
Caution
Necessary
Money
Increase
Author
Twice
Role
So and so
Do
Was
Desire
More
Roy
Except
Selection
The
Has become
The contrary
Remain
Ashraf
Provide
Between them
Provided
Intended
The famous
Doubt
As
The pretext of
Salah
Latecomers
Place
Hanifa
Presence
Hearing
Want to
Specific
Concern
Yourself
Families
At
Dhar
Can
Knowing
Drink
Asked
Palm
Show
There are
Wide
As
Willing
Never
Fear
Keeper
Names
Different
Study
Members
The best
Gel
Such as
Did
So
LeavesLearning
Reasons
Shed
Whole
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Adam
This
Hear
In other words
For
Lack
Right
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Sharp
Table
Light
Came
Optical
Man
I
Sharif
Asked
Terms
Then
If
Bad
Useful
His life
Mark
Seen
Halt
OneNo
About us
Exchange
Separation
Hanbal
And followers
Take
I heard
Kara
Comment
Find
Age
Because
Dispute
To be
The following
Ring
Cut
Livelihood
Agreed
Hidden
Delivers
Education
Perfection
Possible
Obtained
Certain
Paper
Angels
Foreign
Fire
For nonminus
Need
Perhaps the
Required
Interest
Saad
Years
Comes
Found
Contract
To imitate
Get
Science
Income
Quest
The establishment of
Other
Pay
A means
Has
Pay
Land
Leave
Satisfaction
Very
Desires
First
Often
Appropriate
The unseen
Knowledge
Treatment
Sin
Not
Request
The said
Account
Uncle
Education
Occurs
Combines
The
City
Great
Yam
Scholars
Jazz
Works
Service
Results
Tell
Love
Sentence
Kaaba
Lead
Close
Must
Foot
Back
Disposal
Wife
Egypt
Hit
When
And messengers
Must
Osman
Required
Grandfather
Said
Deal
Fixed
Language
Questions
Almighty
Suspicion
Out
Business
The day
Meaning
Full
The public
Virtue
Is called
Kitten
Will
See
A
Is located
Read
I
Roy
Up
Shows
Entry
Nuha
Sometimes
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I know
Six
Something
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Character
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Seven
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Shafei
Recent
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In
And so on
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Take
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Solve the
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Part
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Affect
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Four
The time
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Return
End
Things
He wanted
And only
Calls for
Sin
Country
Not
Aisha
Guidance
Good
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Prophecy
Is
Well
Clear
Word
Prevents
And then
Of religion
Out
The third
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Do
Of
Pronunciation
Link
The intended
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Five
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The original
Name
Wage
Passport
Increase
Likely
Men
Time
Is
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I hope
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And Prevention
Doctrine
The answer
Majah
Nonminus
Women
Children
Permissible
Create
Khaled
Satan
Full
True
Sunan
Ban
Old
Enters
DoorMorocco
Existing
Directed by
And because
To be
And blessings
Ask
WillBack
Thread
Raise
First
Especially
What
Cow
Messages
Episode
During the
Secrecy
About
Speech
Curse
Tirmidhi
True
Almighty
Note
Voice
UsurySecond
Intention
Save
Sun
Truth
Paradise
Period
Wear
Ras
I want
Half
Building
Young
Answer
Amount
But
GoldTotal
Owner
For
Mosques
Disease
Necessary
Repentance
For example
Food
Be
Days
Place
Weak
Back
You
Eating
Daybreak
DeprivedRoad
Directed by
Links
Valid
Dead
Do
And companions
Eg
Chatter
Al
David
Instinct
Ahmed
Hand
Good
Night
Elimination
For saying
Image
Month
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Take
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Place
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Women
Be
Collection
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Three
Critical
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The best
Person
Are
Sacred
Need
Fasting
Up
Quoting
Bukhari
House
Means
Yes
Forbidden
Pray
Ramadan
Bass
Ten
ManTime
MaySource
Narrated byMustAge
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Jurisprudential
Understand
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Violates the
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Follow
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By virtue of
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Most of them
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Badr
On behalf of
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Revelation
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His brothers
Raina
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Face
Check
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Were it not for
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Some
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Order
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I
More
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Country
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Legalization
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The sixth
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Jurisprudence
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Hamid
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Enlarge
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Mahmoud
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As
The pretext of
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Latecomers
Place
Hanifa
Presence
Hearing
Want to
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Families
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Dhar
Can
Knowing
Drink
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Sharif
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And followers
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Osman
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I
Roy
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Sometimes
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Shafei
Recent
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And so on
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Take
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He wanted
And only
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Country
Not
Aisha
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And then
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Out
The third
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The intended
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Five
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The original
Name
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Likely
Men
Time
Is
Small
Travel
I hope
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And Prevention
Doctrine
The answer
Majah
Nonminus
Women
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Permissible
Create
Khaled
Satan
Full
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Sunan
Ban
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Enters
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Existing
Directed by
And because
To be
And blessings
Ask
WillBack
Thread
Raise
First
Especially
What
Cow
Messages
Episode
During the
Secrecy
About
Speech
Curse
Tirmidhi
True
Almighty
Note
Voice
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Intention
Save
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Truth
Paradise
Period
Wear
Ras
I want
Half
Building
Young
Answer
Amount
But
GoldTotal
Owner
For
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For example
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Eating
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Directed by
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Eg
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Ahmed
Hand
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Critical
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Need
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Quoting
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House
Means
Yes
Forbidden
Pray
Ramadan
Bass
Ten
ManTime
MaySource
Narrated byMustAge
HumanImam
Money
Mosque
QuranHajj
Zakat
Her husbandWomen
minusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusminusltlt gtgtJihadi Not Jihadi
Word Frequency
aaaa
= 1250
= 1500
= 11000= 12000
Measurement
1 The clerics who ultimately adoptedJihadi ideology had a more limited ed-ucational network
2 Career paths are correlated withideology Non-Jihadi clerics havemore prestigious appointments Ji-hadi clerics spend more time inprison
non-JihadiJihadi
Number of appointments
Den
sity
0 2 4 6 8
00
02
04
06
08
JihadinonminusJihadi
Cleric Jihad score
Ref
eren
ces
to p
rison
minus006 minus004 minus002 000 002 004
05
1015
2025
Findings
Figure 4 Rich Nielsenrsquos Polmeth 2012
poster on a portion of his dissertationwork Note how little text there is
bull How to Make a Poster Some notes on designing a poster withbeamer (powerpoint such as for Ianrsquos poster (5) reviewed in pre-cept) We can think of creating in roughly the following steps
Within- and Between-Group Inequality Looking Beyond the Variance
ReferencesMcLanahan Sara 2004 ldquoDiverging destinies How children are faring under the second
demographic transitionrdquo Demography 41(4)607-627Western Bruce Deirdre Bloome and Christine Percheski 2008 ldquoInequality among American
families with children 1975-2005rdquo American Sociological Review 73903-920
AcknowledgmentsResearch reported in this poster was supported by The Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute
of Child Health amp Human Development of the National Institutes of Health under Award Number T32HD007163 The content is solely the responsibility of the author and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health
IanLundbergPrincetonUniversity
Has the rise in single parenthood affected aggregateinequality Prior literature using global measures ofinequality suggests a minor role yet distinct processesmay operate at the top and bottom Using CPS data toevaluate changes in the 9050 and 5010 income ratiosI find that the growth in single-parent families isassociated with increased lower-tail income inequality
Changing family structure explains about half of the risein lower-tail income inequality but almost none of theincrease in upper-tail income inequality
Prior literature demonstrates a robust associationbetween single parenthood and poverty yet suggeststhat family structure is unrelated to inequality I findthat the conclusion depends on the chosen measure ofinequality while family structure is unrelated to upper-tail income inequality it explains about half of thegrowth in lower-tail inequality
More broadly these findings confirm the need fordistributional methods in the study of inequality anddemonstrate re-weighting methods as a conceptuallysimple yet analytically flexible method for futuredistributional work
Prior research has argued that growing family incomeinequality is driven by two forces inequality in personalincomes and inequality in the pooling of those incomeswithin families By decomposing the variance of logfamily incomes Western Bloome and Percheski (2008)argue that the former is dominant most of the rise ininequality has occurred within groups defined byeducation and family structure
Variance decompositions measure inequality with asingle parameter (the variance) which characterizes theentire distribution However family structure haschanged the most among the most disadvantaged(McLanahan 2004) which suggests that lower-tailinequality may be more strongly affected by familystructure than upper-tail inequality To the extent thatvariances are influenced by outliers they may captureupper-tail inequality and miss lower-tail inequality
Overview DataandMethods
Background
SummaryofDecomposition
Conclusion
DepartmentofSociologyampOfficeofPopulationResearchilundbergprincetonedu
CurrentPopulationSurvey(CPS)1968-2013bull 2269326children(asymp49333year)bull 06excludedformissingdatabull RepresentativeofAmericanchildrenunder18(weighted)
Methods1 Stratify respondents by family structure and labor supply2 Re-weight to the 1968 distribution of relevant covariates3 Calculate inequality in the counterfactual population
Benefit We can compute any measure of inequality (not justthe variance) on the weighted counterfactual distribution
Key assumption Changing the distribution of family structureswould have no indirect effects on income inequality
Figure2Counterfactualinequalitytrends
Results
Figure3GrowthinUSfamilyincomeinequality1968-2013
Figure1Trendsinfamilystructureandlaborsupply
43 6132 3440 345 240
10203040506070
9050 income ratio 5010 income ratio
Perc
ent c
hang
e 1
968-
2013
ObservedCounterfactual No change in marriageCounterfactual No change in marriage or labor supplyCounterfactual Fixed income distribution only subgroup proportions change
Figure 5 Poster from Ian created usingPowerPoint
1 Begin with a Beamer template that makes a poster of the correctdimensions A0 (331 times 468 inches) We recommend over-leafcom as a general source of Beamer poster templates If youwant to have a specific template to use here is a link to a ver-sion of Rebeccarsquos poster (6) with content removed on Overleaf
soc 504 writing a replicationextension paper 6
if you use make sure to change some of the aesthetics so thateach poster looks different
Poster ExampleRebecca Johnson
Princeton University Department of Sociology
Important DefinitionsTwo main types of financial formulas that a state uses to allocatemoney to local education agencies (LEArsquos) to finance special educationservices State contribution makes up sim40-50 of special educationfinancing with federal sim10-15 and local revenue sim40bullWeighting financing states allocate more money to schooldistricts the more students the district places in special educationEach special education student is weighted as a multiple (eg 13)of a regular education student for funding allocations
bullCapitation financing states allocate a fixed amount of moneyto school districts that is not sensitive to the of students thedistrict places in special education by basing funding on generalstudent enrollment rather than specific placement into specialeducation
Whatrsquos the question
Does a statersquos switch to capitation financing where districts are no longerfinancially rewarded for each additional child placed special educationappear to cause a decrease in rates of special education placement If sohow does the magnitude of that decrease vary by district based on theracial and socioeconomic composition of its students
Why does it matter
bull Special education enrolls 10 to 20 of public school studentsbullExisting sociology research focuses on how an individual studentrsquos
attributes predict special education placement net of the studentrsquostrue disability (eg African-American males facing a higher risk ofplacement than white students at same levels of learning impairment)bullHow study addresses focuses on a policy context that shapesplacement net of disability status rather than an individual attribute
bullExisting economics research focuses on how fiscal incentives built intoinsurance impact diagnoses in medical care(eg upcoding based onreimbursement rates) less investigation of how fiscal incentives builtinto school funding regimes impact diagnoses children receive in theschool systemcarry with them into medical carebullHow study addresses focuses on fiscal incentives for diagnosingor not diagnosing childhood disabilities via placement into specialeducation under a specific category
Data sources
Dependent variables all by yearstate from 2000 to 2011Percentage of students enrolled Numerator NCES Common Core data onin special education IDEA Part B (3-21) recipients
Denominator NCES total public school studentsIndependent variables all by yearstate from 2000 to 2011Financing formula OSEP and NASDE 50-state survey of financing formulas
Confirmed via legislative statutesControls State unemployment rate median family income BLS ACS NCESFRPL-eligible students
1 State variation in fiscal incentivesFigure Map of distribution of financing formulas show that capitation financing is not confined toparticularly politically conservative or high-poverty regions The heat map of special education prevalencerates before any policy changes with green indicating lower rates white as the median and darker redindicating higher rates shows generally higher rates on the East Coast but particularly high rates in thispre-policy period in two of the weighting states that switch to capitation (NJ and West Virginia)
Finance category
Capitation entire time
Switched from capitation to weighting
Switched from weighting to capitation
Weighting entire time 100
125
150
175
Percentage of students placed in special education
2 Does switch to capitation causedecrease in special education rates
Approach DID treatment states = weighting states that switch to capi-tation control states = weighting states that donrsquot switch
Yit = α + β1 lowast treatmentstate(1 = yes 0 = no)+β2 lowast posttreatmentperiod(1 = yes 0 = no)+
β3 lowast treatmentstate lowast posttreatmentperiod + γ lowastXit + εit
(1)
Xit vector of controls Quantity of interest β3 Post-treatment period is defined as years after 2 out of 3states passed capitation
Treatment x minus0860lowastlowastlowast minus0950lowastlowastlowast
post-tx period (0252) (0267)
State clustered se Yes YesControls included No Yes
Note lowastplt01 lowastlowastplt005 lowastlowastlowastplt001Controls (all stateyear) percentage of studentsreceiving free or reduced price lunch (FRPL)unemployment rate median household income(logged) population (in millions) 11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Year (spring of school year)
Per
cent
age
of s
tude
nts
plac
ed in
spe
cial
edu
catio
n
GroupControl weighting states with no change
Treatment weighting state that passed capitation
Figure The graph highlights that states that switch from weighting tocapitation have higher levels than weighting states that donrsquot switch beforethe policyrsquos passage and seem to experience the sharpest decrease inrates in the year the policy goes into effect with leveling off after DIDsuggests that switch to capitation is associated with significantly lowerspecial education rates in years following policy change The magnitudeof the effect is meaningful a decrease in placement rates of 095 percentagepoints means that a state with an average of 16 of students placed inspecial education pre-capitation would be expected to see an average of1505 of students placed post-capitation
3 Synthetic control case analysis ofswitch to capitation
Motivation 1) inference problems with small treatment N (three states)2) very high special education rates in states that switch to capitationdrop might be due to unsustainable rates rather than policy change 3) iseffect driven by large drop in one state Approach construct syntheticcontrol for each treatment state Placebo test post-pre treatment RM-SPE ratio (eq 2 divide eq 3) and compare treatment statersquos ratio to controlstatesrsquo ratios
radicradicradicradicradicradicradic1
Nyearsposttxlowast 2011sum
i=txyear(Ytreatedstatei
minus Ysyntheticcontrolstatei)2 (2)
radicradicradicradicradicradicradic1
Nyearspretxlowasttxyearminus1sum
i=2000(Ytreatedstatei
minus Ysyntheticcontrolstatei)2 (3)
Figure synthetic control suggests most of the previous effect seems to be driven by a large drop inspecial education rates in New Jersey following capitation with RMSPE placebo test suggesting a lessthan 003 chance (133) the drop is due to chance since NJrsquos ratio is ranked largest among 33 statesIn contrast capitation appears to have little effect in Missouri One reason for difference lies in nuancesof financing formulas New Jersey in the pre-policy period had a stronger system of financial incentivesfor special education placement called multiple pupil weighting which not only weighted each specialeducation student as a financial multiple of a general education student but also provided higher weightsfor more expensive disabilities (eg autism) Missouri in the pre-policy period funded districts based onreported school resources spent on special education but this funding was capped according to standardsfor these resources (eg specific student-teacher ratios) West Virginia (not shown) appears similar toMissouri and also had a more modest policy shift than New Jersey
Treated
(New Jersey)
Synthetic
control
14
15
16
17
18
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Year (spring of school year)
Per
cent
age
of s
tude
nts
plac
ed in
spe
cial
edu
catio
n
ArizonaMississippi
MarylandMichigan
South CarolinaKansas
TennesseeIowa
New MexicoWashington
OregonFlorida
OhioNebraska
NevadaDelaware
IllinoisKentucky
MaineNorth Carolina
WyomingIndiana
WisconsinLouisiana
South DakotaNew YorkVermontVirginiaGeorgia
TexasOklahoma
New HampshireNew Jersey
0 1 2 3 4 5Ratio of postminustreatment to preminustreatment RMSPE
Sta
te
Treated
(Missouri)
Synthetic
control
13
14
15
16
17
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Year (spring of school year)
Per
cent
age
of s
tude
nts
plac
ed in
spe
cial
edu
catio
n
ArizonaMississippi
MichiganKansasNevadaFlorida
New MexicoSouth Carolina
IowaMissouri
WashingtonOregon
New YorkMarylandLouisianaOklahoma
OhioSouth Dakota
WyomingVermont
TennesseeNorth Carolina
WisconsinVirginiaGeorgia
NebraskaIllinois
DelawareTexas
New HampshireIndiana
KentuckyMaine
00 25 50 75 100Ratio of postminustreatment to preminustreatment RMSPE
Sta
te
4 Future directions districtheterogeneity
Figure Map shows drop in students placed in special education in the year following capitation (dis-trictrsquos of children in special education in the year immediately prior to capitation minus the districtrsquos in year capitation went into effect) Districts with higher of students eligible for free reduced price lunch(indicated by less-translucent circles) seem more highly represented among districts with large decreasesInitial regression lends support school districts with more FRPL-eligible experienced larger decrease
Atlantic
Bergen
BurlingtonCamden
Cape May
Cumberland
Essex
Gloucester
Hudson
Hunterdon
Mercer
Middlesex
Monmouth
Morris
Ocean
Passaic
Salem
Somerset
Sussex
Union
WarrenWhat happened in district in year capitation went into effect (compared to prior year)
fewer students placed
more students placed
Pre capitation minus postminuscapitation students placed in special education (positive = fewer students placed)
minus5
0
5
10
students in 0017lowastlowast 0022lowastlowast
district elig (0009) (0011)free or redprice lunch students in minus0009district who are (0014)african-americanObservations 463 463R2 0009 0010Note lowastplt01 lowastlowastplt005 lowastlowastlowastplt001
Figure 6 Poster from Rebecca createdusing Beamer
2 Separate the poster into columns using
begincolumn endcolumn
Most posters have 3-4 columns
3 Within each column you can use commands like
beginblock endblock
(for a block without a background) or
beginalertblock endalertblock
(for a block with a backgroundoutline) to separate the posterinto sections like Research question Hypotheses etc
4 Within each block you can put different combinations of Fig-ures and text (though not too much text) as you see fit
bull Getting Feedback Use the session to figure out what peopleare reacting to in your project Try out different pitches look forwhat their questions are or what claims they donrsquot buy watchwhether or not they understand your tables and figures Finallybe sure to listen to yourself or your partner What you are sayingto communicate the point of a figure or table is what should beincluded in the paperrsquos caption for that figure or table
References
Angrist J D and Lavy V (1999) Using maimonidesrsquo rule to esti-mate the effect of class size on scholastic achievement The QuarterlyJournal of Economics 114(2)533ndash575
Ho D E Imai K King G and Stuart E A (2007) Matching asnonparametric preprocessing for reducing model dependence inparametric causal inference Political analysis 15(3)199ndash236
King G (2006) Publication publication PS Political Science ampPolitics 39(01)119ndash125
King G Pan J and Roberts M E (2014) Reverse-engineeringcensorship in china Randomized experimentation and participantobservation Science 345(6199)1251722
King G Tomz M and Wittenberg J (2000) Making the mostof statistical analyses Improving interpretation and presentationAmerican journal of political science pages 347ndash361
soc 504 writing a replicationextension paper 7
Robinson D (2017) An introduction to empirical bayes Examples frombaseball statistics
Salganik M J Dodds P S and Watts D J (2006) Experimentalstudy of inequality and unpredictability in an artificial culturalmarket science 311(5762)854ndash856
- Important components to an empirical paper
- Article Format
- Supplemental Information
- Stylistic Formatting
- Figures and Tables
- Writing
- Whats a poster session
-
soc 504 writing a replicationextension paper 6
if you use make sure to change some of the aesthetics so thateach poster looks different
Poster ExampleRebecca Johnson
Princeton University Department of Sociology
Important DefinitionsTwo main types of financial formulas that a state uses to allocatemoney to local education agencies (LEArsquos) to finance special educationservices State contribution makes up sim40-50 of special educationfinancing with federal sim10-15 and local revenue sim40bullWeighting financing states allocate more money to schooldistricts the more students the district places in special educationEach special education student is weighted as a multiple (eg 13)of a regular education student for funding allocations
bullCapitation financing states allocate a fixed amount of moneyto school districts that is not sensitive to the of students thedistrict places in special education by basing funding on generalstudent enrollment rather than specific placement into specialeducation
Whatrsquos the question
Does a statersquos switch to capitation financing where districts are no longerfinancially rewarded for each additional child placed special educationappear to cause a decrease in rates of special education placement If sohow does the magnitude of that decrease vary by district based on theracial and socioeconomic composition of its students
Why does it matter
bull Special education enrolls 10 to 20 of public school studentsbullExisting sociology research focuses on how an individual studentrsquos
attributes predict special education placement net of the studentrsquostrue disability (eg African-American males facing a higher risk ofplacement than white students at same levels of learning impairment)bullHow study addresses focuses on a policy context that shapesplacement net of disability status rather than an individual attribute
bullExisting economics research focuses on how fiscal incentives built intoinsurance impact diagnoses in medical care(eg upcoding based onreimbursement rates) less investigation of how fiscal incentives builtinto school funding regimes impact diagnoses children receive in theschool systemcarry with them into medical carebullHow study addresses focuses on fiscal incentives for diagnosingor not diagnosing childhood disabilities via placement into specialeducation under a specific category
Data sources
Dependent variables all by yearstate from 2000 to 2011Percentage of students enrolled Numerator NCES Common Core data onin special education IDEA Part B (3-21) recipients
Denominator NCES total public school studentsIndependent variables all by yearstate from 2000 to 2011Financing formula OSEP and NASDE 50-state survey of financing formulas
Confirmed via legislative statutesControls State unemployment rate median family income BLS ACS NCESFRPL-eligible students
1 State variation in fiscal incentivesFigure Map of distribution of financing formulas show that capitation financing is not confined toparticularly politically conservative or high-poverty regions The heat map of special education prevalencerates before any policy changes with green indicating lower rates white as the median and darker redindicating higher rates shows generally higher rates on the East Coast but particularly high rates in thispre-policy period in two of the weighting states that switch to capitation (NJ and West Virginia)
Finance category
Capitation entire time
Switched from capitation to weighting
Switched from weighting to capitation
Weighting entire time 100
125
150
175
Percentage of students placed in special education
2 Does switch to capitation causedecrease in special education rates
Approach DID treatment states = weighting states that switch to capi-tation control states = weighting states that donrsquot switch
Yit = α + β1 lowast treatmentstate(1 = yes 0 = no)+β2 lowast posttreatmentperiod(1 = yes 0 = no)+
β3 lowast treatmentstate lowast posttreatmentperiod + γ lowastXit + εit
(1)
Xit vector of controls Quantity of interest β3 Post-treatment period is defined as years after 2 out of 3states passed capitation
Treatment x minus0860lowastlowastlowast minus0950lowastlowastlowast
post-tx period (0252) (0267)
State clustered se Yes YesControls included No Yes
Note lowastplt01 lowastlowastplt005 lowastlowastlowastplt001Controls (all stateyear) percentage of studentsreceiving free or reduced price lunch (FRPL)unemployment rate median household income(logged) population (in millions) 11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Year (spring of school year)
Per
cent
age
of s
tude
nts
plac
ed in
spe
cial
edu
catio
n
GroupControl weighting states with no change
Treatment weighting state that passed capitation
Figure The graph highlights that states that switch from weighting tocapitation have higher levels than weighting states that donrsquot switch beforethe policyrsquos passage and seem to experience the sharpest decrease inrates in the year the policy goes into effect with leveling off after DIDsuggests that switch to capitation is associated with significantly lowerspecial education rates in years following policy change The magnitudeof the effect is meaningful a decrease in placement rates of 095 percentagepoints means that a state with an average of 16 of students placed inspecial education pre-capitation would be expected to see an average of1505 of students placed post-capitation
3 Synthetic control case analysis ofswitch to capitation
Motivation 1) inference problems with small treatment N (three states)2) very high special education rates in states that switch to capitationdrop might be due to unsustainable rates rather than policy change 3) iseffect driven by large drop in one state Approach construct syntheticcontrol for each treatment state Placebo test post-pre treatment RM-SPE ratio (eq 2 divide eq 3) and compare treatment statersquos ratio to controlstatesrsquo ratios
radicradicradicradicradicradicradic1
Nyearsposttxlowast 2011sum
i=txyear(Ytreatedstatei
minus Ysyntheticcontrolstatei)2 (2)
radicradicradicradicradicradicradic1
Nyearspretxlowasttxyearminus1sum
i=2000(Ytreatedstatei
minus Ysyntheticcontrolstatei)2 (3)
Figure synthetic control suggests most of the previous effect seems to be driven by a large drop inspecial education rates in New Jersey following capitation with RMSPE placebo test suggesting a lessthan 003 chance (133) the drop is due to chance since NJrsquos ratio is ranked largest among 33 statesIn contrast capitation appears to have little effect in Missouri One reason for difference lies in nuancesof financing formulas New Jersey in the pre-policy period had a stronger system of financial incentivesfor special education placement called multiple pupil weighting which not only weighted each specialeducation student as a financial multiple of a general education student but also provided higher weightsfor more expensive disabilities (eg autism) Missouri in the pre-policy period funded districts based onreported school resources spent on special education but this funding was capped according to standardsfor these resources (eg specific student-teacher ratios) West Virginia (not shown) appears similar toMissouri and also had a more modest policy shift than New Jersey
Treated
(New Jersey)
Synthetic
control
14
15
16
17
18
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Year (spring of school year)
Per
cent
age
of s
tude
nts
plac
ed in
spe
cial
edu
catio
n
ArizonaMississippi
MarylandMichigan
South CarolinaKansas
TennesseeIowa
New MexicoWashington
OregonFlorida
OhioNebraska
NevadaDelaware
IllinoisKentucky
MaineNorth Carolina
WyomingIndiana
WisconsinLouisiana
South DakotaNew YorkVermontVirginiaGeorgia
TexasOklahoma
New HampshireNew Jersey
0 1 2 3 4 5Ratio of postminustreatment to preminustreatment RMSPE
Sta
te
Treated
(Missouri)
Synthetic
control
13
14
15
16
17
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Year (spring of school year)
Per
cent
age
of s
tude
nts
plac
ed in
spe
cial
edu
catio
n
ArizonaMississippi
MichiganKansasNevadaFlorida
New MexicoSouth Carolina
IowaMissouri
WashingtonOregon
New YorkMarylandLouisianaOklahoma
OhioSouth Dakota
WyomingVermont
TennesseeNorth Carolina
WisconsinVirginiaGeorgia
NebraskaIllinois
DelawareTexas
New HampshireIndiana
KentuckyMaine
00 25 50 75 100Ratio of postminustreatment to preminustreatment RMSPE
Sta
te
4 Future directions districtheterogeneity
Figure Map shows drop in students placed in special education in the year following capitation (dis-trictrsquos of children in special education in the year immediately prior to capitation minus the districtrsquos in year capitation went into effect) Districts with higher of students eligible for free reduced price lunch(indicated by less-translucent circles) seem more highly represented among districts with large decreasesInitial regression lends support school districts with more FRPL-eligible experienced larger decrease
Atlantic
Bergen
BurlingtonCamden
Cape May
Cumberland
Essex
Gloucester
Hudson
Hunterdon
Mercer
Middlesex
Monmouth
Morris
Ocean
Passaic
Salem
Somerset
Sussex
Union
WarrenWhat happened in district in year capitation went into effect (compared to prior year)
fewer students placed
more students placed
Pre capitation minus postminuscapitation students placed in special education (positive = fewer students placed)
minus5
0
5
10
students in 0017lowastlowast 0022lowastlowast
district elig (0009) (0011)free or redprice lunch students in minus0009district who are (0014)african-americanObservations 463 463R2 0009 0010Note lowastplt01 lowastlowastplt005 lowastlowastlowastplt001
Figure 6 Poster from Rebecca createdusing Beamer
2 Separate the poster into columns using
begincolumn endcolumn
Most posters have 3-4 columns
3 Within each column you can use commands like
beginblock endblock
(for a block without a background) or
beginalertblock endalertblock
(for a block with a backgroundoutline) to separate the posterinto sections like Research question Hypotheses etc
4 Within each block you can put different combinations of Fig-ures and text (though not too much text) as you see fit
bull Getting Feedback Use the session to figure out what peopleare reacting to in your project Try out different pitches look forwhat their questions are or what claims they donrsquot buy watchwhether or not they understand your tables and figures Finallybe sure to listen to yourself or your partner What you are sayingto communicate the point of a figure or table is what should beincluded in the paperrsquos caption for that figure or table
References
Angrist J D and Lavy V (1999) Using maimonidesrsquo rule to esti-mate the effect of class size on scholastic achievement The QuarterlyJournal of Economics 114(2)533ndash575
Ho D E Imai K King G and Stuart E A (2007) Matching asnonparametric preprocessing for reducing model dependence inparametric causal inference Political analysis 15(3)199ndash236
King G (2006) Publication publication PS Political Science ampPolitics 39(01)119ndash125
King G Pan J and Roberts M E (2014) Reverse-engineeringcensorship in china Randomized experimentation and participantobservation Science 345(6199)1251722
King G Tomz M and Wittenberg J (2000) Making the mostof statistical analyses Improving interpretation and presentationAmerican journal of political science pages 347ndash361
soc 504 writing a replicationextension paper 7
Robinson D (2017) An introduction to empirical bayes Examples frombaseball statistics
Salganik M J Dodds P S and Watts D J (2006) Experimentalstudy of inequality and unpredictability in an artificial culturalmarket science 311(5762)854ndash856
- Important components to an empirical paper
- Article Format
- Supplemental Information
- Stylistic Formatting
- Figures and Tables
- Writing
- Whats a poster session
-
soc 504 writing a replicationextension paper 7
Robinson D (2017) An introduction to empirical bayes Examples frombaseball statistics
Salganik M J Dodds P S and Watts D J (2006) Experimentalstudy of inequality and unpredictability in an artificial culturalmarket science 311(5762)854ndash856
- Important components to an empirical paper
- Article Format
- Supplemental Information
- Stylistic Formatting
- Figures and Tables
- Writing
- Whats a poster session
-
