SOAR 2007 Current Changes and Future Climates. Predicting the Future Climate Systems Atmosphere –...

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SOAR 2007 Current Changes and Future Climates
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Transcript of SOAR 2007 Current Changes and Future Climates. Predicting the Future Climate Systems Atmosphere –...

SOAR 2007SOAR 2007

Current Changes and Future Climates

Current Changes and Future Climates

Predicting the FuturePredicting the Future Climate Systems

Atmosphere – changes over hours Oceans – surface changes over weeks – depths change over millennia Biosphere – changes annually to centuries Cryosphere – ice, glaciers permafrost, snow – various change scales Geosphere – volcanos, continental drif – long time scales, large changes

Climate Systems Atmosphere – changes over hours Oceans – surface changes over weeks – depths change over millennia Biosphere – changes annually to centuries Cryosphere – ice, glaciers permafrost, snow – various change scales Geosphere – volcanos, continental drif – long time scales, large changes

Modeling the ClimateModeling the Climate Systems & Feedbacks Among

Radiation insolation (incoming sunlight varies) reflection, absorption, re-radiation by surface, air

Water cycle evaporation, precipitation, runoff

Land surface soil moisture, vegitation, topography, snow & ice

Ocean surface currents, deep currents, chemistry

(salinity) Sea Ice

strongly affected by feedbacks

Systems & Feedbacks Among Radiation

insolation (incoming sunlight varies) reflection, absorption, re-radiation by surface, air

Water cycle evaporation, precipitation, runoff

Land surface soil moisture, vegitation, topography, snow & ice

Ocean surface currents, deep currents, chemistry

(salinity) Sea Ice

strongly affected by feedbacks

FeedbacksFeedbacks Positive

Any change leads to further change eg. Ball on a hill

Negative System always returns to equilibrium

eg. Ball in a bowl

Neutral System stays in new state

eg. Ball on a plain

Positive Any change leads to further change

eg. Ball on a hill

Negative System always returns to equilibrium

eg. Ball in a bowl

Neutral System stays in new state

eg. Ball on a plain

FeedbacksFeedbacks Greenhouse Effect: Warming

Good … makes Earth inhabitable!! Ground absorbs sunlight Ground heats (parking lots in summer) Ground radiates heat (Infrared, IR) Atmosphere absorbs (some) IR Atmosphere heats

Feedbaack Mechanisms Evaporation Plant growth Ice-Albedo effect

Greenhouse Effect: Warming Good … makes Earth inhabitable!!

Ground absorbs sunlight Ground heats (parking lots in summer) Ground radiates heat (Infrared, IR) Atmosphere absorbs (some) IR Atmosphere heats

Feedbaack Mechanisms Evaporation Plant growth Ice-Albedo effect

FeedbacksFeedbacks Feedback Mechanism: Evaporation

H2O vapor absorbs more IR warming increases?

Clouds shade surface, cool it, warming stops? warming decreases?

Feedback Mechanism: Plant Growth More CO2 increases plant growth

More plant growth is good!! Plants absorb CO2 (Keeling curve annual cycles

CO2 is Reduced

Feedback Mechanism: Evaporation H2O vapor absorbs more IR

warming increases?

Clouds shade surface, cool it, warming stops? warming decreases?

Feedback Mechanism: Plant Growth More CO2 increases plant growth

More plant growth is good!! Plants absorb CO2 (Keeling curve annual cycles

CO2 is Reduced

FeedbacksFeedbacks Feedback Mechanism: Ice Albedo Effect

Warming melts glaciers, sea ice Ground warms more than snow/ice Ground warms, radiates more IR Atmosphere warms More ice melts

warming increases Cooling increasing glaciers More sunlight reflected Ground Cools cooling increases

Feedback Mechanism: Ice Albedo Effect Warming melts glaciers, sea ice Ground warms more than snow/ice Ground warms, radiates more IR Atmosphere warms More ice melts

warming increases Cooling increasing glaciers More sunlight reflected Ground Cools cooling increases

FeedbacksFeedbacks Feedback Mechanism: Ice Albedo Effect

Warming melts glaciers, sea ice Ground warms more than snow/ice Ground warms, radiates more IR Atmosphere warms More ice melts

warming increases Cooling increasing glaciers More sunlight reflected Ground Cools cooling increases

Feedback Mechanism: Ice Albedo Effect Warming melts glaciers, sea ice Ground warms more than snow/ice Ground warms, radiates more IR Atmosphere warms More ice melts

warming increases Cooling increasing glaciers More sunlight reflected Ground Cools cooling increases

IPCCIPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change Established in 1988

World Meteorological Org. (WMO) UN Environment Programme (UNEP)

Mandate

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Established in 1988

World Meteorological Org. (WMO) UN Environment Programme (UNEP)

Mandate“The role of the IPCC is to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and

transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of

human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and

mitigation.”

“The role of the IPCC is to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and

transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of

human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and

mitigation.”http://www.ipcc.ch/about/about.htm

IPCCIPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change“The IPCC does not carry out research nor does it monitor climate related data or other

relevant parameters. It bases its assessment mainly on peer reviewed

and published scientific/technical literature. Its role, organisation,

participation and general procedures are laid down in the ‘Principles Governing IPCC

Work’“

“The IPCC does not carry out research nor does it monitor climate related data or other

relevant parameters. It bases its assessment mainly on peer reviewed

and published scientific/technical literature. Its role, organisation,

participation and general procedures are laid down in the ‘Principles Governing IPCC

Work’“

http://www.ipcc.ch/about/about.htm

IPCCIPCC Working Groups

I: Science knowns, unknowns & projections

II: Impact and Adaption vulnerability: natural and human consequences: + and –

III: Mitigation options for changing human behavior and impact

Task Force on NationalGreenhouse Gas Inventories

Working Groups I: Science

knowns, unknowns & projections

II: Impact and Adaption vulnerability: natural and human consequences: + and –

III: Mitigation options for changing human behavior and impact

Task Force on NationalGreenhouse Gas Inventories

IPCCIPCC Intergovenmental Panel on Climate

Change View of the bulk of the scientific community Computer models estimate feedbacks Reports every 5 years

2007 report available in print & electronic

3rd Assessment report gave “Hockey Stick”

Intergovenmental Panel on Climate Change View of the bulk of the scientific community Computer models estimate feedbacks Reports every 5 years

2007 report available in print & electronic

3rd Assessment report gave “Hockey Stick”

IPCCIPCC 4th Assessment

Released 2007 WGI = 701 pages!

available on lineipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1

available in printCambridge U. Press

4th Assessment Released 2007 WGI = 701 pages!

available on lineipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1

available in printCambridge U. Press

IPCCIPCC 4th Assessment

Released 2007 WGI = 701 pages!

available on lineipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1

available in printCambridge U. Press

4th Assessment Released 2007 WGI = 701 pages!

available on lineipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1

available in printCambridge U. Press

Assessment Report Four (ARF)Assessment Report Four (ARF) Findings of Working Group I

Summary for Policymakers (18 pages) Human & Natural Drivers of Climate Change Direct Observations of Recent Climate Change A Paleoclimatic Perspective Understanding and Attributing Climate Change Projections of Future Changes in Climate

Findings of Working Group I Summary for Policymakers (18 pages)

Human & Natural Drivers of Climate Change Direct Observations of Recent Climate Change A Paleoclimatic Perspective Understanding and Attributing Climate Change Projections of Future Changes in Climate

Assessment Report Four (ARF)Assessment Report Four (ARF) Findings of Working Group I

Technical Summary (66 pages) Chamges in Human & Natural Drivers of Climate Observations of Changes in Climate Understanding and Attributing Climate Change Projections of Future Changes in Climate Robust Findings and Key Uncertainties

Findings of Working Group I Technical Summary (66 pages)

Chamges in Human & Natural Drivers of Climate Observations of Changes in Climate Understanding and Attributing Climate Change Projections of Future Changes in Climate Robust Findings and Key Uncertainties

Union of Concerned ScientitstsUnion of Concerned Scientitsts Confronting Climate Change in the U.S.

Northeast: Science, Impacts and Solutions

Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast: Science, Impacts and Solutions

http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/

IPCC ARF WGIIPCC ARF WGI Radiative Forcing

“The change in net (down minus up) irradiance (solar plus longwave; in W/m2) at the tropopause after allowing for stratospheric temperatures to readjust to radiative equilibrium, but with surface and tropospheric temperatures and state held fixed at the unperturbed values”

Radiative Forcing “The change in net (down minus up)

irradiance (solar plus longwave; in W/m2) at the tropopause after allowing for stratospheric temperatures to readjust to radiative equilibrium, but with surface and tropospheric temperatures and state held fixed at the unperturbed values”

RF = net flux imbalance at tropopauseRF = net flux imbalance at tropopause

Atmospheric Structure

Atmospheric Structure

Layers (from surface)

Troposphere – sphere of weather

Stratosphere – sphere of ozone (O3)

Mesosphere Ionosphere – sphere of ions

Layers (from surface)

Troposphere – sphere of weather

Stratosphere – sphere of ozone (O3)

Mesosphere Ionosphere – sphere of ions

RF = net flux imbalance at tropopause

RF = net flux imbalance at tropopause

IPCC ARF WGIIPCC ARF WGI Components of Climate Change Components of Climate Change

Accounts for natural processesAccounts for natural processes

eg. Changes in evaporation

eg. Changes in evaporation

eg. Melting permafrost releasing methane

eg. Melting permafrost releasing methane

IPCC ARF WGIIPCC ARF WGI Radiative Forcing 1750 - 2005 Radiative Forcing 1750 - 2005

Carbon DioxideCarbon Dioxide

“Ozone Layer” absorbs UV, reduces

RF at tropopause

“Ozone Layer” absorbs UV, reduces

RF at tropopauseMethaneMethane

Buildings increase surface albedo

relative to forests

Buildings increase surface albedo

relative to forests

Aerosols (particles) reflect sunlight AND increase cloud cover

(eg. Contrails)

Aerosols (particles) reflect sunlight AND increase cloud cover

(eg. Contrails)

Solar radiation has increased since

1750 (Little Ice Age end)

Solar radiation has increased since

1750 (Little Ice Age end)

IPCC Climate DriversIPCC Climate Drivers Greenhouse Gases: CO2, CH4, H2O, NOx Greenhouse Gases: CO2, CH4, H2O, NOx

Grey Bars = Natural Variabilit

y

Grey Bars = Natural Variabilit

y

Com-bined rate of chang

e

Com-bined rate of chang

e

IPCC Climate DriversIPCC Climate Drivers Greenhouse Gases: CO2, CH4, H2O, NOx Greenhouse Gases: CO2, CH4, H2O, NOx

Grey Bars = Natural Variabilit

y

Grey Bars = Natural Variabilit

y

Com-bined rate of chang

e

Com-bined rate of chang

e

IPCC Changes Since 1850IPCC Changes Since 1850 Global Average

Temperature Global Average

Sea Level mostly thermal

expansion Northern

Hemisphere Snow Cover

Global Average Temperature

Global Average Sea Level mostly thermal

expansion Northern

Hemisphere Snow Cover

UCC Northeast USUCC Northeast US Climate of New York State Climate of New York State

UCC Northeast USUCC Northeast US100-yr Flood

becoming 10-yr Flood

100-yr Flood

becoming 10-yr Flood

UCC Northeast USUCC Northeast US Snow cover decreasing Snow cover decreasing

Com-bined rate of chang

e

Com-bined rate of chang

e

IPCC ARFIPCC ARF Continued Warming Continued Warming

What we’re committed to by past

behavior!

What we’re committed to by past

behavior!

IPCC ARFIPCC ARF Effects of Changing Mean Effects of Changing Mean

Does not mean it

never gets cold!

Does not mean it

never gets cold!

IPCC ARFIPCC ARF Location of Changes Location of Changes

UncertaintiesUncertainties

IPCC ARFIPCC ARF Location of Changes Location of Changes

The SkepticsThe Skeptics Important voices!

Skeptics keep science honest Agreements

CO2 in atmosphere is increasing

CO2 levels correlate with temperature

Arguments Climate is driven exclusively by insolation

Milankovitch Cycles Sunspot Cycles

Too expensive to reduce CO2: Adapt Global warming is good!

Important voices! Skeptics keep science honest

Agreements CO2 in atmosphere is increasing

CO2 levels correlate with temperature

Arguments Climate is driven exclusively by insolation

Milankovitch Cycles Sunspot Cycles

Too expensive to reduce CO2: Adapt Global warming is good!

The SkepticsThe Skeptics Journal of American Physicians & Surgeons 2007

Mailed to all SLU Physics Professors Tuesday!!

Journal of American Physicians & Surgeons 2007 Mailed to all SLU Physics Professors Tuesday!!

The SkepticsThe Skeptics Claims all warming due to solar

activity Claims all warming due to solar

activity

Scale minimizes hydrocarbon use,

leaves out first century.

Scale minimizes hydrocarbon use,

leaves out first century.

The SkepticsThe Skeptics Claims all warming due to solar

activity Claims all warming due to solar

activity

Scale minimizes hydrocarbon use,

leaves out first century.

Scale minimizes hydrocarbon use,

leaves out first century.

What to Do?What to Do? Complex system hard to model Experts don’t agree Could be global disaster

Complex system hard to model Experts don’t agree Could be global disaster

Ignore it?Ignore it?

Mitigate it? Kyoto + ?

Mitigate it? Kyoto + ?

Adapt?Adapt?