Smartphone Launch Predictorboletines.prisadigital.com/2012_Smartphone_Launch_Predictor.pdf ·...

Google Confidential and Proprietary 1 1

Smartphone Launch Predictor

U.S. November 2012

Winning in Product Launch

•  Develop a deeper understanding of factors impacting product launch

•  Share strategies for brands to succeed in this market

–  Increased searches and product sales

•  Analysis of 150 launches (60 “Hero” phones) from 2010+

Objectives

Approach

1

2

3

The solar system

Building a rocket

Loading the passengers

Flying higher

Re-Entry

Agenda

4

5

-3 -2 -1 - +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 +11 +12

Act

ivity

(ind

exed

)

Weeks after launch

Search volume correlates to phone sales

Unit Sales

Queries

Launch Week

34% of search occurs

before launch date

Source: Smartphone Launch Predictor Study, Google, Nov 2012. *Data from ITG and Google internal sources for smartphone launches since 2010 through YTD 2012.

52% purchase-related

search before launch

-4 -3 -2 -1 - +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6

Act

ivity

(ind

exed

)

Weeks after launch

Buyers are searching before launch

Purchase

Reviews

Launch Week

52% of purchase searches occur before launch

Features

Issues

Intent-specific searches for major launches


Search performance strongly correlates to sales

100K Post-launch queries

For every… …Carriers can expect roughly

+4% Phone sales

20K Paid search clicks

+5% Phone sales

$20K Search investment

+5% Phone sales

88%

91%

85%

R-Squared


1

2

3

The universe

Building a rocket


Flying higher

Re-Entry

Agenda

4

5

CNET Review Scores

Official reviews drive interest over specific features

1 22

40

2

3 3.5 4 4.5

# of

Pho

nes

+9% Search Volume

+3% Device Sales

Average impact of 0.5 increase in CNET score

Features mentioned in CNET reviews

Feature Impact

Screen

Speed

Hotspot

Keyboard

OS No impact

Camera No impact

Call Quality No impact

Battery No impact

User Review Score No impact


Phones branded within a family (Galaxy, iPhone, etc.)

Family branding increases performance

34 32

New Brand Within Family

Impact of Family Branding

-7% Search Volume

-6.5% Device Sales

Average performance of first brand within family

+8% Search Volume

+13% Device Sales

Average impact of including within a family

Source: Smartphone Launch Predictor Study, Google, Nov 2012. *Data from ITG and Google internal sources for smartphone launches since 2010 through YTD 2012. Note: Premium devices only.

1

2

3

The universe

Building a rocket


Flying higher

Re-Entry

Agenda

4

5

Pre-launch is the best time for awareness Impact on phone searches by factor

Accuracy (R2)

Num

ber o

f Sea

rche

s


Interest by Launch Day of Week

Interest by Launch Quarter

Strategically time launch messaging

Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday

Avg.

Sea

rche

s

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Avg.

Sea

rche

s


Online news volume drives interest

News Stories per Phone

+8.5% Device Sales

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2010 2011 2012

New

s S

torie

s (‘0

00s)

Announcement Launch Week Post-Launch

+90% Increase in stories

published

Impact of add’l 1K News stories

+5.5% Search Volume

Growth over 2010 / 2011


-5 Annc -3 -2 -1 - +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8

Act

ivity

(ind

exed

)

Weeks after launch

News volume highest on announcement

Unit Sales

Queries

Launch Announcement

News Stories


Video activity is critical to success

Video views per phone

+5.5% Device Sales

5M 5M

15M

19M 22M

28M

2010 2011 2012

Pho

ne v

ideo

vie

ws

Pre-Launch Views Post-Launch Views

Average impact of 1M increase in video views

+6% Search Volume

+60% Increase in video views

Growth over 2011


-5 Annc -3 -2 -1 - +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8

Act

ivity

(ind

exed

)

Weeks after launch

Video volume highest at launch

Unit Sales

Queries

Launch Announcement

Video Views

Uploads


1

2

3

The universe

Building a rocket


Flying higher

Re-Entry

Agenda

4

5

Search is most effective in capturing sales Relationship between factors and phone sales

-

100

200

300

Searches on Annc

News on Annc

Paid Search Clicks

Video Views Mobile Queries

Friday Launch

Tablet Queries

Net Price Family CNET Score

Sal

es u

nit i

mpa

ct (‘

000s

)

#2/3: Searches, News on Annc

Accuracy (R2)

#1: Paid Search Clicks


Carrier investment drives more sales than OEM

Pre-Launch

+14% Device Sales

+7% Device Sales

$100K Carrier Search Investment

$100K OEM Search Investment

2010 2011 2012

Sea

rch

Inv.

(Ind

exed

)

OEM Carrier

Post-Launch

2010 2011 2012

Sea

rch

Inv.

(Ind

exed

)


Focus media by launch phase to maximize effectiveness

Sales Lift per Pre- Launch

Launch Week

Weeks 2-4

Weeks 5-8

1K News Stories

1M Video Views

50k Paid Clicks

25k Mobile Searches

+9% +6% +3% +3%

+4% +11% +9%

+3%

+19% +41% +36% +34%

+5% +17%

+9% +20%


1

2

3

The universe

Building a rocket


Flying higher

Re-Entry

Agenda

4

5

Pre-launch search projects launch success

71%

80% 82%

78%

86%

91% 94%

Acc

urac

y (R

2 )

Accuracy (R2) by weeks to launch date


How to leverage pre-launch insights

Prepare to capture stronger-than expected demand when interest exceeds original forecast:

Ø  Scale direct response advertising to anticipated levels

Ø  Adjust operational capacity to meet high demand

Bolster weaker-than-expected demand when customer response is lagging:

Ø  Invest in awareness advertising to bolster phone interest

Ø  Adjust product positioning to enhance phone profile

Product Launch Framework

Insight

Family branding improves performance

Thursdays and Fridays best for launch

Pre-launch search (#1) and online news (#3) top factors in driving

interest

Action

Ensure brands offers premium phones especially with family

branding

Focus launch messaging on these days

Maximize PR efforts at announcement & pre-launch

1

2

3

Product Launch Framework

Insight

Video views at launch week #2 factor in driving interest

Phone sales highly correlated to search

Purchase interest highest and competition lowest in pre-launch

Search sales impact highest post-launch

Mobile / tablet growing in importance, especially post-

launch

Action

Drive online video at launch week

Capture early cost-efficient searchers and sustain coverage

as launch progresses

Ensure mobile and tablet coverage especially post-launch

4

5

6

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