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Transcript of SMART Seminar Series: Gods of the Gaps - How Public Perception Affects Australian Technology and...
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The Cognitive Machines Driving Public Perception and Policy
Ketan Joshi, Research and Communications Officer
11/11/2014
The Gods of the Gaps
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2Source - Google Maps - https://www.google.com.au/maps/@-
33.7748874,151.0988658,3a,75y,281.71h,89.79t/data=!3m4!1e1!3m2!1sEtoA6EBl4Y1CpnHGWu0dIQ!2e0
Mysteries of the CSIRO
@KetanJ0
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3Source - http://www.grc.nasa.gov/WWW/k-12/airplane/atmosphere.html
Climate Science
@KetanJ0
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4Source - Youtube - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jBWTJrS557E
Sky News – Jones, Moore, Richardson, Jackson
@KetanJ0
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5Source - Africa Green Media - http://africagreenmedia.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/IPCC31.jpg
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
@KetanJ0
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6Source - Annual Survey of Attitudes to Climate Change (CSIRO, 2013) -
http://www.csiro.au/Outcomes/Climate/Adapting/Annual-Survey-of-Australian-Attitudes-to-Climate-Change.aspx
Polling on Climate Change Opinions
@KetanJ0
8%
6%
39%
47%
Not happening
Don't know
Happening, but natural
Happening, but caused by
humans
“Typological breakdown of thoughts about the causes of
climate change (N = 5219)”
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7Source – Essential Vision - http://essentialvision.com.au/energy-sources
Polling on Energy Transition Opinions
@KetanJ0
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Solarpower
Wind Hydro Gas Nuclearpower
Coal
“Do you think Australia should put more emphasis, less emphasis or about the same emphasis as it does now on producing domestic energy from the following sources?”
More emphasis Same emphasis Less emphasis Don’t know
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8Source – 2014 RET Review – ACIL Allen https://retreview.dpmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/files/ACIL_Report.pdf
The Renewable Energy Target
@KetanJ0
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9Source – 2GB radio - http://www.2gb.com/audioplayer/21496#.VGAUjvmUcsY
2GB Interview with Tony Abbott and Alan Jones
@KetanJ0
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10Source – Australian Financial Review, 18/08/2014 -
http://www.afr.com/p/national/abbott_plan_to_axe_ret_H2znp8ix2CuwbJe6jyb5ZP
What Makes Up Our Bills
@KetanJ0
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11
Source – Google Image Search, “Carbon tax protest”
https://www.google.com.au/search?q=carbon+tax+protest&es_sm=93&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ei=GrJdVJywF-
W4mwWQr4DICA&ved=0CAkQ_AUoAg&biw=1920&bih=895
The Deeply Unpopular Carbon Price
@KetanJ0
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12Source – Essential Vision - http://essentialvision.com.au/support-or-oppose-the-carbon-tax
Carbon Pricing Popularity (or, lack thereof)
@KetanJ0
48% 49%52% 53% 54%
48%
35%38% 37% 38%
35%38%
“Do you support or oppose the Government’s carbon pricing scheme?”
Total oppose
Total support
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13Source – 2014 RET Review – ACIL Allen https://retreview.dpmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/files/ACIL_Report.pdf
The Merit Order Effect
@KetanJ0
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14
Source SMH + The Australian - http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/climate-sceptic-dick-warburton-to-head-tony-abbott-review-into-
renewable-energy-target-20140217-32vve.html http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/climate/ret-reviewer-dick-warburton-im-not-a-climate-
sceptic/story-e6frg6xf-1226829905020
The RET Review
@KetanJ0
“I am not a denier of climate change…I am
a sceptic that man-made carbon dioxide is
creating global warming.”
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15
Source – Infigen Blog – http://www.infigenenergy.com/renewable-energy/blog/what-would-happen-if-the-ret-review-
recommendations-were-implemented.html
The Impacts + The Recommendations
@KetanJ0
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16
Source – Infigen Energy Blog - http://www.infigenenergy.com/renewable-energy/blog/aussies-love-clean-tech.html + Essential Vision Polling
Public Perception of the Renewable Energy Target
@KetanJ0
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17
Source - RET Review - https://retreview.dpmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/files/ACIL_Report.pdf
The 20% Maximum to be Imposed on Renewable Penetration
@KetanJ0
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18Source – By Ketan + RET Review https://retreview.dpmc.gov.au/ret-review-report-0
The Prime Ministerial Knowledge Gap
@KetanJ0
RET Other
RET Other
Imagined “Significant” Renewable Energy Impact on Bills:
Measured Renewable Energy Impact on Bills:
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19
Source Mike Sandiford, University of Melbourne - http://ramblingsdc.net/Australia/WindProblems.html#CO2_and_wind_farms
Emissions Reductions?
@KetanJ0
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20Source – The Guardian - http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/dec/18/renewable-energy-tony-abbott-signals-he-could-wind-back-or-scrap-
targets
Emissions Reductions?
@KetanJ0
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21Source – Flickr - https://www.flickr.com/photos/91514494@N05/9120110909/sizes/o/
Emissions Reductions?
@KetanJ0
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22Source – ABC Media Watch = http://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/transcripts/s3596892.htm
ABC Media Watch – 24/09/2012
@KetanJ0
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23Source – National Grid UK - http://www.theguardian.com/environment/blog/2012/sep/26/myth-wind-turbines-carbon-emissions
The National Grid - UK
@KetanJ0
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24Source – Supplied, Pending Publication
South Australian Decarbonisation
@KetanJ0
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
Win
d P
ow
er
Ou
tpu
t (M
W, A
vera
ge o
ver
day)
South Australian Emissions Intensity Index
01/01/2012 - 25/10/2014 - SA Wind Power vs Emissions Intensity
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25
South Australian wind power – July/August
Source - Supplied@KetanJ0
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26
John Cleese’s Explanation of Confident Ignorance
Source – Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvVPdyYeaQU@KetanJ0
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27
Wind Turbine Syndrome
Source – City News Canada - http://www.citynews.ca/files/2010/04/812f4c9940a6ad3b55872aae01f8.jpeg@KetanJ0
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28Source: http://we-oppose-windfarms.tripod.com/id20.html
The Genesis of “Wind Turbine Syndrome”
@KetanJ0
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29
Wind Turbine Syndrome
Source – The Independent, 2009 - http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/green-living/are-wind-farms-a-health-risk-us-scientist-identifies-
wind-turbine-syndrome-1766254.html @KetanJ0
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30
Wind Turbine Syndrome
Source – Youtube - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHzlFYdqU9U@KetanJ0
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31
Wind Turbine Syndrome
Source – British Medical Journal - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/4/6/e005374.full.pdf+html@KetanJ0
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32Source:
Wind Turbine Syndrome
@KetanJ0
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33Source – Supplied
Wind Turbine Syndrome
@KetanJ0
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34Source – Ketan’s Blog - http://etwasluft.blogspot.com.au/2013/05/caveys-and-causal-gap-problems-with.html
Wind Turbine Syndrome
@KetanJ0
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35Source – Ketan’s Blog - http://etwasluft.blogspot.com.au/2013/05/caveys-and-causal-gap-problems-with.html
Wind Turbine Syndrome
@KetanJ0
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36
Wind Turbine Syndrome
@KetanJ0
Association of Australian Acoustical Consultants (2013)
Victorian Department of Health (2013)
NSW Health (2013)
Worksafe Victoria (2013)
Doctors for the Environment Australia (2011)
Climate and Health Alliance (2012)
Public Health Association of Australia (2013)
South Australian Environmental Protection Agency (2013)
National Health and Medical Research Council (2014)
Australian Medical Association (2014)
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37
Wind Turbine Syndrome
@KetanJ0Source – 2gb Interview, Waubra Foundation Website - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MobTnO2s6uE
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38
Wind Turbine Syndrome
@KetanJ0Source – Health Canada Summary Leaflet - http://southerntablelandsrenewables.org.au/wp-
content/uploads/2014/11/Health-Canada-Wind-Turbine-Noise-and-Health-Study_brochure-2014Nov6.pdf
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39
Wind Turbine Syndrome
@KetanJ0Source – Twitter - https://twitter.com/ScottMillerCTV/status/530428629789192193
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40
Our Brains Abhor a Vacuum
@KetanJ0Source – The Daily Beast - http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/04/26/daniel-kahneman-s-gripe-with-behavioral-
economics.html
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41
Confidence vs Expertise
@KetanJ0Source – J Pers Soc Psychol. 1999 Dec;77(6):1121-34.- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10626367
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42
Confidence vs Expertise
@KetanJ0Source – Pacific Standard Magazine (Science of Society) - http://www.psmag.com/navigation/health-and-behavior/confident-
idiots-92793/
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43
Ideology
@KetanJ0
Source – Nature - www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n8/fig_tab/nclimate1610_F1.html
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45https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L1TzQMEfDL8
Massive changes to energy technology mean we
need to understand why we fill gaps in our
knowledge – confidence, ideology and identity
play a role.
Twitter - @KetanJ0
Email: [email protected]
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46