Lewis Gaskell Jr.

IBM Transportation Leader

Smart City Summit

Safety and security

Population, globalization and demographics

Congestion and capacity constraints

Economic crisis and uncertainty

Aging Infrastructure

The world is rapidly changing

In 2007, for the first time in history, the majority of the world’s population lived in cities – 3.3 billion. By 2050, city dwellers are expected to make up 70 percent of the Earth’s total population – 6.4 billion

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Cities are now the center of urban activity

While globalization has “flattened” the economic playing field, population growth and distribution among cities has

not leveled

Over 8,000 commuters in 20 cities surveyed.As a result each city was ranked on the economic / emotional

toll traffic congestion (i.e. Commuter Pain) is causing.

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2011 Survey Results

IBM compiled the results of the survey into its Commuter Pain Index that ranks the emotional and economic toll of commuting in each city on a scale of one to 100, with 100 being the most onerous

Potential for substantial economic and social benefits

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Real Benefits

Minimize congestion costs

Reduce pollution

Boost economic activity

WW: USD$740 billion annual cost25% reduction in congestion = USD$185 billion savings in U.S.

WW: 4,848 million tonnes of carbon emissions from road transportation sources

20% emissions reduction = 970 million tonnes

WW: 1.24 million annual road crash related deaths25% reduction = 310,000 lives annuallyReduce accidents

6% increase in retail sales from 25% reduction in congestionAverage capital city experiences a EUR1.4 billion potential increase in retail sales

Details

Source: IBM; IMF; World Bank; Centre for Retail Research; International Transport Forum; World Health Organization

The transport ecosystem is confronting four critical global issues, which are creating a specific set of challenges for

transport agencies.

Drivers of change Industry challenges Imperatives

Population explosionCapacity and congestionHow to meet the growing, changing demand efficiently, consistently and profitably?

Predict demand and optimize transportation assets and infrastructure

UrbanizationEmpowered customersHow to deliver the greatest choice, convenience and value to consumers?

Dramatically improve the end-to-end traveler experience

System Inefficiencies

Efficient operationsHow to improve efficiency and reduce costs, and improve service and reduce environmental impact?

Improve operational efficiency while reducing environmental impact

TechnologySafety and securityHow to unobtrusively reduce exposure to security risks and increase the safety of operations?

Ensure safety and security

Transportation is the lynchpin for economic viability and competitiveness in today’s

global economy

Cities can infuse intelligence into their entire transportation system, improving drivers’commutes, giving better information to city planners, increasing public transportation

use and business productivity, and raising citizens’ quality of life.

INSTRUMENTEDSmarter transportation ecosystemsare able to track traffic from source to destination, monitor conditions in real time and instantly identify faults and inefficienciesacross assets and infrastructure.

INTERCONNECTEDSmarter connections provide customers access to continuously updated information as well as travel choices, with instant notification of any irregularities in the transport system.

INTELLIGENTAdvanced analytics on realtime and predictive data enables decisions to be made in optimizing the operations of a transportation system.

9 Technology Trends To Watch In 201415Jan2014

Summary: Top Trends To Watch In 2016

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1 SecurityExternal threats increase. Impact of bid data, mobile, social, and cloud. Now a business operations issue . CISO tasked with enterprise-wide strategy that includes encryption / biometrics

2 Cloud Computing All types grow, but buzz in 2016 will be about Hybrids. Public clouds will experience price wars. Cloud increasingly becomes distribution channel for software apps. Intersection with mobile.

3 Mobile Computing More devices, apps, clouds, analytics. Mobile security becomes a larger concern. HTML use increases. BYOD programs necessary.

4 Internet of Things Sensors, M2M and wearables. Analysts talk of Billions of sensors and $T impact on economy. Execs and IT Leaders need to understand how to leverage it all.

5 Big Data Explosion of data. How to collect, store, manage the data securely so it can be analyzed? Hadoop matures & goes realtime. Chief Data Officer role. Data Scientists. Training required

6 Analytics The on ramp to the Smarter Planet. Embedded, predictive, unstructured, mobile. Applications for all processes. Self Service tools needed. Need changes in culture, skills, business processes.

7Cognitive Computing

Smart Machines that learn, adapt, and think like humans are on their way. Watson, Google Now, Siri, Cortana. Robots. Will be highly disruptive. Leaders scenario planning.

8 Social BusinessIt is about connecting people before, during and after every task, every business transaction. Front office and back office apps. For the entire value chain. CEOs own up to changing culture.

9 Digital Marketing Marketing is going through a huge transformation. Must significantly improve digital experience across all channels. All types of analytics required. Need help from IT.

10 Software DevelopmentDevelopers, Developers, Developers!! This is a critical age of software development with many trends happening. DevOps, APM, Open ‘Everything’, SDN, Hackdays, Agile methods

Source: Bill Chamberlin

Source: HorizonWatch, IBM Market Insights

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Tolling Congestion charging (variable)From To

New technologies can help transform transportation

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Monitor traffic Understand and Predict traffic

Road sensors Social media and weather analytics

Historic data Real time & predictive

Traffic management Predictive transport management

Bus and metro Dynamic multi modal transport

Traffic signs In-car messaging

Cruise control Autonomous driving

Navigation Real-time predictive guidance

Cars EV & Connected cars

ABS Reactive Incident prevention

Congestion Optimized traffic flow

Economic constraint Economic growth

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The emphasis today, is to put the customer at the center and manage sales and service deliverythroughout the customer journey experience

Developing an Integrated Traveler Eco-system is required to reduce the Complexity and Respond to Customer Expectations and Demands

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The VisionThis will require a digital platform that connects an ecosystem

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TrafficInfo

Providers

Tourism

Publicinstitutions /

Cities

IT-& Commerce

Solutionprovider

BikeSharing

Media

Value AddProvider

Taxi

PublicTransport

CarSharing

Integration of a travel ecosystem...

...with a jointly used digital platform...

...with the goal to offer travellers new and better services for a unique end-

to-end travel experience

End-to-End Trip Booking

Intermodal Planning

Pro-active Asstistance

Buy add-on services & productsDigital Platform

© 2015 IBM Corporation14 16.04.2016

The right mix of Big Data & Analytics capabilities enables better decisions and increases the business value

How can everyonebe more right…….more often?

DescriptiveWhat has happened?

PredictiveWhat could happen?

PrescriptiveHow can we achieve the best outcome?

Cognitive – e.g. WatsonTell me the best course of action?

Big Data& Analytics

Business Value

Deploying Predictive Analytics Optimization (PAO) for Transportation

Correlation Optimization Allocation

OPERATIONS ACTION

Deployment OptimizationEmergency DeploymentBudget PlanningPolicy Support

Asset UtilizationTraffic PatternsAsset DeploymentEmergency Planning

Weather/season

Demand

Environment

Road Assets

Construction actions

Enforcement Actions

Measurements

Control actions

Traffic Data

Maintenance resources

Equipment Category

Economic factors

Equipment rating

BUSINESS OUTCOMES

Training actions

EXOGENOUS CONDITIONS

OPERATIONS

Equipment deployment

Equipment Location

ANALYTICS ENGINE

Unlike other analytics in use today, PAO leverages ALL data types to discover relationships between factors and outcomes

The next generation rail car technology to provide real-time information including bearing temperature, weight distribution, brake control and location tracking

Rail technology infrastructure will target– On-board, near real-time information– One infrastructure supporting

multiple sensor modalities– Identify railroad equipment while

enroute

Smarter Rail

Infrastructure will continue to advance in telematics, surveillance, driver assistance, and frieght

Smarter Transportation

Traffic and Incident Prediction Provides cities with a future view into the near-term traffic flowFacilitates decisions and planning …real time is too late!

Telematics will reduce service time by allowing remote and faster diagnostics and also will enable prognostic capabilities and proactive servicing.

Camera-based Driver AssistanceDeveloped for recognizing lanes, occupants, vehicles from mobile camera

IBM is working with cities like Miami Dade, London, Zhenjiang, Singapore, Da Nang, Dublin, Lyon and Stockholm to deploy smarter transportation systems.

Lyon: real-time decision support on steps that traffic engineers can use to reduce traffic congestion and enable faster incident response time when an unexpected event occurs.

Zhenjiang: makes public transportation system faster and more efficient by improving transit flow on 2,000 city buses and 100 bus routes

Da Nang: real-time information on traffic control center and 100 city buses to assist in monitoring traffic and controlling traffic lights

Zurich: providing apps that tie in dynamic multi modal trip planning with seamless open fare payment

Singapore FASTer program is the most innovative, using the latest predictive and prescriptive as well as people as sensors for O-D patterns, incidents and actions.

SMARTER TRANSPORTATION

Predictive Asset Optimization

ld predict the failure revent costly

wntime?

when an asset is scheduled ntenance, you could predict

arts are likely to fail in the ture?

What if, you could statistically monitor in real-time all of your equipment globally from a singleweb dashboard?

What if you could quickly mine the thousands of maintenance logs to determine the most effective repair procedures?

You could…Improve operational efficiencyExtend the life of an assetReduce unscheduled maintenanceImprove diagnosis and prognosiscapabilities

Optimize product designDetermine best repair strategies

Parking challenge causes 30% of traffic in city

Culver CitySausalito

New York CityRoosevelt Island

15 blocks for 1 year in Los Angeles

3.3 min – average time looking for parking

950,000 miles – excess vehicle miles driven

38 trips – around the earth

47,000 gallons – wasted gas

730 tons – carbon dioxide greenhouse gas

All this driving to get nowhere

*Based on 2007 UCLA Study by Prof. D. Shoup

For Cities- Parking revenue loss- Congested roads- Poor Resource utilization- High Environmental impact

For Merchants & Business Owners-Loss of business -Customer frustration-Limited ability to influence –no data

For Consumers- Uncertainty - Productivity loss- Ineffective pricing- Quality of Life impact

What is Insights in Motion

City and Regional Views of the movement and patterns of people over time

– Classify trips based on various parameters• Work, Shopping, Schools, Freight and Tourist Travels

– Show Origins and Destinations– Location and Demographics – Movement Patterns and Anomalies

Connected Vehicles Internet of Things - IoT

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Stream Computing Connected VehiclesContinuous Ingestion Continuous Complex Analysis in Microseconds

Smartcar

Find my car

Unlock my car

vibration detected, details published

schedules appointmentwith car owner

predicts part failure

m2m “Connected Car” for telematics, infotainment, mobile

SMART-In-Car : real time car generated data

Snow and Ice rain real time – November 25 2012, 12:00

Heavy Snow / Rain

Predictive Weather Planning How It Works

Weather Model Pre-PositionerDamageModel

High PrecisionWeather

Prediction

Damage/OutagePrediction

Physics-Based &Statistical Model

AdvancedStatistical Model

OptimizationModel

Pre-Planning(up to 3 days lead)

RestorationResponseScenarios

Resource Mobilization

Expected DamageLocations & Timing

Wind Gusts,Snow, …

© 2015 IBM Corporation

Initiated and managed by Grand Lyon: 3 years http://www.optimodlyon.org/

13 public and private partners2 Public Entities

– Grand Lyon and City of Lyon8 Private companies

– Renault Trucks, IBM, Orange, CityWay, Phoenix ISI, Parkeon, Autoroutes Trafic, Geoloc Systems

3 Research Centers – Laboratoire d’Économie des Transports (LET), Centre d’Études Techniques

de l’Équipement (CETE) de l’Est and laboratoire LIRIS (Université Lyon 1)

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New real time data gathering

systems(traffic and

parking)

Mobility portal

Mobility portal

Optimizing traffic regulation through 1hour prediction

Real-time, multimodal, travel planner

Optimizing urban freight

© 2015 IBM Corporation29

Some Thoughts....

Provide easier access to transport services through system-wide, real time visibility

Increase public transport patronage and trip experience

Provide better travelers information, improve customer decision abilities

Facilitate modal shift from car and reduce congestion

Improve Public perception of transportation

Allow crowdsourced feedback to create a better faster network

Implement technology to make most use of efficiency of costly infrastructure – prediction,

Provide easier access through common multi mode payment systems

Road User Charging – pay for use of roads – change behavior

Connected Vehicles Implications– V2V , V2x

Better planning & modeling tools for affects of changes

Consider parking as part of traffic issue

Holistic city view of ecosystem – water, energy, safety, & transportation