Small Cells MENA - Keynote Presentation
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Transcript of Small Cells MENA - Keynote Presentation
Crossing the chasm: Small cell industry 2016
Sue Monahan, CEO, Small Cell Forum
January 2016
Crossing the Chasm:
Important new report includes data from: • Market Status Report, Mobile
Experts, November 2015 – available exclusively to SCF members
• Potential for small cells infrastructure-as-a-service in the US, iGR, Q3 2015
• Small cell operator survey Q3 2015, Rethink Technology Research
Download the full report at scf.io
Crossing the Chasm: new report published
November 2015
Softbank's rural and remote small cells exploit seasonal variations to reduce their satellite backhaul bandwidth http://goo.gl/lBPLBf
http://scf.io/case/005
Secluded Station Peaks on public holidays
Ski Resort used in winter
Mountain Trail Most used in summer
Rural & Remote Small Cells in Japan
More examples
Alcatel Lucent small cells integrate with street furniture leveraging existing site services organisation http://goo.gl/TKFjz5
http://scf.io/case/011
Cisco upgrade existing Wi-Fi access points to add a great 3G voice service with low incremental CapEx & OpEx http://goo.gl/lsbA0W
University Case Study Deployed 3G indoor small cells over 1700sqm university campus Leveraging existing Wi-Fi sites and infrastructure to add great 3G voice
EcNo ≤ - 7dB 98% of walk route EcNo ≥ - 9dB 97% of walk route
Before: 3G Macro After: Macro + small cells KPIs
Call setup success Call drop ratio
Open Source small cells from Lime Microsystems enable Mexican operator to serve remote village with very low ARPU http://goo.gl/MKXO8p
Bringing cellular to disadvantaged rural communities
Solution Leverage open source: • Base station with a built-in PBX from Fairwaves • Uses Lime field-programmable RF devices • Flexible RF platform, covers all cellular bands • Allows villagers to make free calls to one another • Enhanced medical coverage • 14 concurrent voice connections • Long distance calls via satellite internet • Simple “do-it-yourself” installation • Programmability mitigates interference
More info: www.eetimes.com/author.asp?section_id=36&doc_id=1320012
http://scf.io/case/004
Challenge: bringing coverage to the remote village of Santa Maria Yaviche in Mexico with very low ARPU
• Shipments rise from 4.05m to 10.37m units 2014-20
• Enterprise important engine for growth – 110% upswing in 2015
• Large urban rollouts started in 2015, shipments up fourfold in 2015
• 2014 – market matured; 2015 – growth accelerated
The big question is: ‘How do I monetize & deploy at scale?’
Argument for small cells has been won
January 2016
By 2020 small cells can achieve significant critical mass – installed base 7x macrocells. This means: • Small cells will drive the RAN architectural
agenda • Small cells at the heart of 5G and IoT • Attractive volumes for whole ecosystem,
driving innovation This is a real turning point: Small Cells now own the debate
42,500,000
6,400,000
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
Small cell Macrocell
units
Seizing the opportunity
January 2016
7x more Small Cell
than Macrocell by 2020
January 2016
• SCF achievement so far built on a single successful architecture and the main engine for immediate and continued growth
• However, today no single architecture will suit huge range of future wireless use cases. A flexible approach is required to: • address range of operator scenarios and services • provide choice of architectures in line with spectrum, fiber, other considerations, while
maintaining underlying common standards
Meeting future network needs – broadening the remit
Base Station Densification Broader set of use cases NFV and SDN
Future generation deployments very different: Dense, automated, multiband, neutral host, separate layer, some virtualized Requires new approaches: • Emergence of low-power radio heads, now
adopted within SCF definition • First step in evolution towards virtualized
small cells with many split options • Transition to virtualized RAN blurs
boundaries between conventional neutral-host DAS systems and new virtualized RAN architecture.
Today’s generation Future generation
Ad hoc, opportunistic A well-planned second layer
Small numbers Dense
Manually organized SON
Homogeneous cells Move to Virtualization
3G or LTE Multimode including Wi-Fi
Same spectrum as macro
Many bands – including licence-exempt
Single operator Neutral host or shared ownership
Meeting future network needs – optimized network architectures
January 2016
Key drivers to deploy small cells 2015-20: • Cost capacity and
coverage still key • Support new
revenue streams – eg. M2M
• Harness new spectrum bands eg. 3.5GHz and above
• First step to Virtualization
We will deliver workable architectures to address global drivers
Source: Rethink Technology Research January 2016
Particular acceleration in non-residential market, esp in countries where public WiFi less established North Africa slower to take off but overtakes in new deployments in 2019 CAGR 145% in N Africa, 95% in ME –higher than global CAGR of 66% for non-residential Region was generally slow to adopt 3G, but has leapfrogged in 4G. Some operators interested in dense 4G-first approach
Small cell adoption MENA
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
,000
North Africa Middle East
Deployments of new non-residential small cells Source: Rethink Technology Research
Patterns are different from those of other regions Emphasis on rural coverage, indoor quality and IoT higher than global average Capacity and cost are less serious constraints than in many regions (though still important) High interest in new architectures such as IoT and virtualisation, esp in Middle East Strong emphasis on smart cities Lower installed base of public Wi-Fi, raising profile of small cells
Small cell drivers MENA
50 48 48
30 25 25 23 23
16 11
29
41
29
41
12 18
59
35
24
12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
% o
f op
erat
ors
Global MENA
% placing each driver in the top 3 Source: Rethink Technology Research
TCO and ROI, rather than capex, dominate the risks. Backhaul and site issues – less confidence than in some regions that these can be addressed. High bureaucracy in some countries. Less concern than global average about spectrum (heavy use of TDD) Relatively early stage market, so large scale automation and WiFi integration figure less highly than elsewhere, for now
Small cell barriers MENA
50
42 37 35 33
26 25 22
18
12
29
18
35
41
53
47
35
12
18
12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
% o
f op
erat
ors
Global MENA % placing each barrier in the top 3 Source: Rethink Technology Research
Over 40% of MENA operators surveyed would bring forward roll-out by 12 months or more if their top concerns were addressed Deployment timescales are not fixed, but most need more practical help and confidence to cross the chasm High regional interest in some key Forum work items eg virtualisation, IoT, enterprise
Accelerating the timescales
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
No difference 6 months 12 months 24 months
% o
f M
NO
s
M East N Africa Global
Source: Rethink Technology Research
Building for the future
Small Cell Forum work program 2015/16
• Our work is about supporting: • new architectures • new spectrum options • new business cases • new service models • a broadening ecosystem • real world use cases
Delivering needed industry knowledge through our new work program
Enterprise small cells
License-exempt spectrum
HetNet and SON
Virtualization
Multi-operator support
Delivering 5G and IoT
Our new work program: answering the question HOW?
January 2016
January 2016
Small Cell Forum – work program roadmap
Multi-operator
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2012
WI SI
LAA SC Wi-Fi with WBA
Home Enterprise
Urban Rural and Remote
Virtualization
License-exempt
HetNet & SON
R1 R2
R3 R4 R5
R5.1
R5.2 R6
definition of nFAPI China Mobile
Cisco, ip.access
Vodafone, Qualcomm
5G, IoT
Truphone, ip.access
AT&T, Ericsson, Airhop
Reliance Jio, Huawei
Kick-off
Deliverables Defined
Release
Enterprise Orange
Spidercloud, Huawei
R2
• Installed base more than doubled 2015 (Source: Mobile Experts)
• Wide target market – ie. from venues to factories to SoHo
• 62% of large US companies interested in small cells (Source: iGR)
• Enterprise has higher than average interest in small cells for indoor coverage/voice, new services, IoT, Virtualization (Source: Rethink)
• Drives new value chains – by 2020 only 20% of Enterprise small cells MNO-managed
286,350
639,327
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Q314 Q315 un
its
Enterprise: small cells enable a more effective Enterprise workforce
January 2016
+110% growth
during 2015
Many vRAN deployments will start in small cell layer • 43% of small cell deployers will also be
adopting Virtualization by 2018
Critical for SCF members to drive this work: • nFAPI work will define best splits and
create unified platform; and • Enable new deployment models which
lower barriers – eg. ‘as a service’, per-AP licensing
Small Cell Virtualization – enabling new deployment models
Conventional small cell Virtualized small cell
MAC
FAPI P5 & P7
PHY
Vendor Ext nFAPI
P5 & P7
nFAPI P5 & P7
PHY
Vendor Ext
MAC
RF
Vendor Ext
nFAPI Interworking
January 2016
January 2016
SCF drives interoperability and unity while supporting flexible use cases
Small cell Virtualization – answering the big questions
Topic Findings
What are the real business benefits of Virtualization in the RAN?
Identified centralization benefits, transport costs and MANO/automation elastic scaling capabilities
Are current small cell architectures well suited to Virtualization?
Yes – FAPI MAC/PHY decomposition well suited to provide Virtualization baseline
Can Virtualization deliver a phased roadmap – eg. aligned with longer-term 5G directions?
Yes – Flexible Virtualization over non-ideal transport now emerging as a core 5G requirement
How do we ensure Virtualization supports innovation across a multi-vendor ecosystem?
SCF’s nFAPI workstream set to accelerate multi-vendor PNF/VNF interoperability
January 2016
Small cell Virtualization – deliverables and timelines
nFAPI Definition
nFAPI Demonstration
PDCP/RLC Recom’tions
(ETSI ISG NFV) PoC
nFAPI Std Ownership
VNF SVC API/MEC
Multi-operator Scoping
2017
Placeholder for SVC engagement
Placeholder for Multi-Op engagement
Kick-off
Deliverables Complete
2015 2016
PNF Management
ETSI-MANO Recom’tions NET
Board
IOP
RPH
R5.1 R6
• SON becomes essential as networks densify
• By 2020, 40% of small cells deployed in hyper-dense environments (150 per km2)
• SON must be interoperable and able to work with all technologies and with Virtualization
• Absolute priority is to avoid fatal fragmentation – eg. Release 6 solutions and requirements, Plugfests, services API
HetNet and SON – enabling mass-market scale
January 2016
SCF is well placed to drive unlicensed as it is small cell-specific in higher band – LTE in 5GHz only applies to small cells. Work items include: • Joint SCF/WBA taskforce delivering specification of the architecture & interfaces
of trusted WLAN networks - in particular, those aspects that were not considered by 3GPP
• Delivering FAPI and nFAPI support for LTE-LAA/Wi-Fi coexistence • Systematic assessment of Wi-Fi Calling, small cell VoLTE and over-the-top VoIP
against seven core criteria for carrier voice services – capacity, quality, security, coverage, mobility, deployment and cost
Architectural & performance implications of unlicensed usage
LTE unlicensed small cell
Unlicensed
Licensed anchor
Carrier aggregation LTE/LTE-U
© Small Cell Forum Ltd 2016
Work stream mission: “To make licensed radio small cells the preferred solution for vertical market, multi-operator solutions”
Work items include: • Business case • Existing and upcoming technology • Regulatory • Spectrum licensing – existing and new licensing regimes • Existing deployments – Why they work and why aren’t there more of them?
Multi-operator/neutral host – delivering new opportunities
January 2016
• SCF playing a leadership role in 5G debate
• IoT and 5G networks – many areas unclear but will certainly be small cell driven
• Allow operators to differentiate on a standard platform
• Two key areas of SCF activity – ultra-density and fully service-oriented networks with open APIs
• Forum submitted vision to 3GPP • Work with NGMN, ETSI, GSMA,
4G Americas
Maximizing future potential in IoT and 5G
Service oriented networks • Enterprise use cases
• Open API • Edge services
Ultra dense networks • Deployment • Backhaul/fronthaul
arch • HetNet & SON
NGMN, MEC (ETSI, GSMA), 5GPPP
January 2016
January 2016
SCF is driving solutions for HetNet2020 that are: • Massively scalable, driving affordable economics and future growth • Directly responsible for new revenues, via applications and services that could not otherwise exist • Future-proofed, to take the risk out of deployment and allow for future use cases, even those which are currently unclear
Join us! Shape the future of small cells and the integrated HetNet
Join us – seize the opportunity
Crossing the Chasm: report published in November
scf.io January 2016