SMALL BUSINESS AND THE...Small Business Optimism Index Based on Ten Survey Indicators (Seasonally...
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SMALL BUSINESS AND THE TCJA Holly Wade NFIB Research Center 4th Annual Conference on Virginia’s Economic Future Monday, October 29 th
Transcript of SMALL BUSINESS AND THE...Small Business Optimism Index Based on Ten Survey Indicators (Seasonally...
SMALL BUSINESS AND THE TCJA
Holly Wade
NFIB Research Center
4th Annual Conference on
Virginia’s Economic Future
Monday, October 29th
Rank Problem % critical% not a problem
2012 Rank
1 Cost of Health Insurance 52 8 1
2 Unreasonable Government Regulations 33 6 5
3 Federal Taxes on Business Income 29 8 6
4 Uncertainty over Economic Conditions 26 5 2
5 Tax Complexity 27 6 7
6 Uncertainty over Government Actions 26 7 4
7 Frequent Changes in Federal Tax Laws 21 8 8
8 Property Taxes 23 11 9
9 State Taxes on Business Income 23 12 10
10 Locating Qualified Employees 24 14 32
2016 Small Business Problems and Priorities
Small Business Optimism IndexBased on Ten Survey Indicators
(Seasonally Adjusted 1986=100)
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
76
79
82
85
88
91
94
97
00
03
06
09
12
15
18
Quarterly data (Jan., April, July, Oct.) Monthly data (Aug., Sept.)
ELECTION
Small Business Optimism Index and Components October November Pre-
ElectionPost-Election
December January
Job Creation Plans 10% 15% 9% 23% 16% 18%
Job Openings 28% 31% 31% 30% 29% 31%Credit Expectations -6% -5% -4% -5% -6% -6%Expected Business Conditions
-7% 12% -6% 38% 50% 50%
Sales Expectations 1% 11% 4% 20% 31% 29% Earnings Trends -21% -20% -25% -16% -14% -12%Inventory Satisfaction -4% -4% -3% -6% -3% -5%
Inventory Plans 2% 4% 4% 4% 4% 2% Good Time to Expand 9% 11% 11% 11% 23% 25%Capital Expenditure Plans
27% 24% 25% 23% 29% 27%
Optimism Index 94.9 98.4 95.4 102.4 105.8 105.9
Outlook for General Business ConditionsNet Percent (“Better” Minus “Worse”) Six Months From Now
(Seasonally Adjusted)
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
04
07
10
13
16
Quarterly data (Jan., April, July, Oct.) Monthly data (Aug., Sept.)
Perc
ent
of
Firm
s
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
04
07
10
13
16
Quarterly (Jan., Apr., July, Oct.) Monthly data (Aug., Sept.)
Perc
en
t of
Fir
ms
Good Time to ExpandPercent Next Three Months “Good Time to Expand”
(Seasonally Adjusted)
Sales ExpectationsNet Percent (“Higher” minus “Lower”) in the
Next Three Months
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
76
79
82
85
88
91
94
97
00
03
06
09
12
15
18
Quarterly data (Jan., April, July, Oct.) Monthly data (Aug., Sept.)
Perc
ent
of
Firm
s
Actual Earnings ChangesNet Percent (“Higher” minus “Lower”) the Last
Three Months Compared to the Prior Three Months
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
76
79
82
85
88
91
94
97
00
03
06
09
12
15
18
Quarterly data (Jan., April, July, Oct.) Monthly data (Aug., Sept.)
Perc
ent
of F
irm
s
Job Creation PlansNet Percent (“Increase” minus “Decrease”) in Next Three Months
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
76
79
82
85
88
91
94
97
00
03
06
09
12
15
18
Quarterly data (Jan., April, July, Oct.) Monthly data (Aug., Sept.)
Net P
erc
ent
of
Firm
s
Unfilled Job OpeningsPercent with at Least One Unfilled Opening
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
76
79
82
85
88
91
94
97
00
03
06
09
12
15
18
Quarterly data (Jan., April, July, Oct.) Monthly data (Aug., Sept.)
Perc
ent o
f F
irm
s
Actual Labor Compensation ChangesNet Percent (“Increase” minus “Decrease”) During Last Three Months
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
408
6
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
18
Net
Perc
ent
of F
irm
s
Actual Change in InventoryNet Percent (“Increase” minus “Decrease” During the Last Three Months
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
85
88
91
94
97
00
03
06
09
12
15
18
Quarterly data (Jan., April, July, Oct.) Monthly data (Aug., Sept.)
Perc
ent
of F
irm
s
Selected Single Most Important Problem
5
10
15
20
25
30
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Taxes Regulations
Perc
ent
of
Firm
s
TAXES CUT
DEREGULATION BEGINS
Percent Viewing Tax Law as “Positive” or “Very Positive” for Personal Taxes, Business, and General
Economy
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
No employees 1 - 19 employees 20 - 99 employees 100+ employees All firms
Pe
rce
nt
“P
os
itiv
e” o
r “V
ery
Po
sit
ive
”
Economy Business Personal
Impact of Tax Law on Personal Taxes, Business, and General Economy
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Very Positive Positive No Impact Negative Very Negative
Pe
rce
nt
of
Fir
ms
Economy Business Personal
Familiarity with Tax Law by Firm Size
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
No employees 1 - 19 employees 20 - 99 employees 100+ employees All firms
Pe
rce
nt
of
Fir
ms
Very Familiar Somewhat Familiar Not Too Familiar Not at all Familiar
Source of Most Useful Information on Tax Law
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Tax Preparers Other BusinessOwners
Government TradeAssociations
General NewsMedia
Internet
Pe
rce
nt
of
Fir
ms
Plans to Spend Cash Previously Used for Taxes
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Too Soon toTell
Lower Prices Hire AdditionalEmployees
Retain asEarnings
IncreaseBusiness
Investment
IncreaseEmployee
Compensation
Pay Down DebtObligations
Pe
rce
nt
of
Fir
ms
SMALL BUSINESS AND THE TCJA
Holly Wade
NFIB Research Center
4th Annual Conference on
Virginia’s Economic Future
Monday, October 29th
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