Small Business & Agriculture Advisory Council Federal ...€¦ · Why startups? • 34% of all...

Small Business & Agriculture Advisory Council

Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Thursday, August 17, 2017

AGENDA

10:30am

10:35am

Welcome, Jack Gutt, Executive Vice President

Introductory Remarks, Claire Kramer Mills, Assistant Vice President

10:40am-

11:00am

Small Business Credit Survey, Claire Kramer Mills, Assistant Vice President

11:00am-

11:30am

The National Economy, Richard Peach, Senior Vice President

11:30am-

12:00pm

Regional Update, Jason Bram, Officer

12:00pm

12:15pm

12:15pm-1:55pm

Adjourn to NWC Room-10F

Lunch

Discussion with William Dudley, President and Michael Strine, First Vice

President

Your experiences can give us insight into current economic conditions.

Questions for discussion with President Dudley:

1. Have firms of your size and in your industry seen sales volume increase,

decrease, or stay the same in the first half of 2017?

2. Do you expect sales for firms of your size and in your industry to

increase, decrease, or stay the same in the second half of 2017?

3. Do you expect firms of your size and in your industry to increase

investment (plant & equipment) in the second half of 2017?

4. Have firms of your size and in your industry faced any recent shortage of

labor that has limited their ability to meet demand?

5. Do you expect firms of your size and in your industry to increase

employment this year? Why or why not?

6. Do you expect input prices for firms of your size and in your industry to

increase this year? Do you expect prices of products/services sold to

increase?

7. Over the past two quarters, have you noticed any financing changes for

firms of your size and in your industry? How have the terms and conditions

for obtaining financing changed (tightened, eased, not changed)?

2:00 pm

Adjourn

Small Business & Agricultural Advisory Council

Federal Reserve Bank of New York 33 Liberty Street New York, NY

Thursday, August 17, 2017

ATTENDEE LIST Council Members Michael Arnoff President Arnoff Moving & Storage Eric Caslow President Acme Smoked Fish Corporation Kevin Ellis Chief Executive Officer Cayuga Milk Ingredients Gabriel Hernández Co-Founder and Head of Tax Division BDO Puerto Rico

Patrick Marotta President and CEO Marotta Controls Ranjini Poddar Founder and CEO Artech Information Systems, LLC Waleska Rivera President Danosa Caribbean, Inc.


William Dudley Michael Strine Jack Gutt Kausar Hamdani Richard Peach Sarah Bell Andrea Priest Claire Kramer Mills Jason Bram Betsy Bourassa Edison Reyes Angela Sun Jessica Battisto Scott Lieberman

President First Vice President EVP, Communications & Outreach SVP, Communications & Outreach SVP, Research & Statistics VP, Executive Office VP, Media Relations AVP, Outreach & Education Officer, Research & Statistics Associate, Media Relations Associate, Outreach & Education Associate, Legal Senior Analyst, Outreach & Education Senior Analyst, Outreach & Education

The views I express are my own and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.

Overview

• About the survey

• Why startups?

• 2016 highlights, startup firms

– About the businesses

– Business performance

– Financial challenges

– Debt

– Credit demand, supply, and experiences

November 8, 2017 2

About the survey History of the Small Business Credit Survey

• Started after the financial crisis to better understand supply and

demand for credit and capital alternatives

– Separate pilot efforts by Federal Reserve Banks

• Launched Joint Small Business Credit Survey in 2014

– Multi Federal Reserve Bank effort

– Expanded in 2015

• National effort in 2016

– Participation from all 12 Federal Reserve Banks

November 8, 2017 3

About the survey How is the information collected?

• Convenience sample

• 400+ community partners and business organizations

• Responses weighted to reflect the national distribution of small

businesses

• Administered online and takes approx. 10-12 minutes to complete.

Fielded from Sept – Dec 2016.

• 10,303 employer firms completed the survey

– Of these, 2,159 were 0-5 years old.

November 8, 2017 4

Why startups?

• 34% of all small employer firms

• Drivers of job growth in the US1

– Account for nearly all net new job creation

• Rate of startup creation has been declining2

• 1/3 of new establishments fail within their first 2 years, and half

fail within 5 years3

November 8, 2017 5

1 “The Importance of Young Firms for Economic Growth,” Jason Wiens and Chris Jackson. Kauffman Foundation Entrepreneurship Policy Digest, September 2015; “Who Creates Jobs? Small Versus Large Versus Young,” John Haltiwanger, Ron S. Jarmin, and Javier Miranda. The Review of Economics and Statistics, May 2013, 95(2): 347-361. 2 “Declining Business Dynamism: It’s For Real,” Ian Hathaway and Robert E. Litan, Brookings Institution, May 2014. 3 Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business Employment Dynamics.

Report highlights About the businesses

November 8, 2017 6

Report highlights Business performance

November 8, 2017 7

Less likely to be profitable

More likely to have grown revenues

More likely to have added employees

More often optimistic

Report highlights Financial challenges

November 8, 2017 8

Report highlights Outstanding debt

73% of startup firms have outstanding debt. N=2,132

November 8, 2017 9

Report highlights Use of personal credit

November 8, 2017 10

92% of startups rely entirely or partially on the owner’s personal

credit score to obtain financing.

Report highlights Demand for financing

52% of startup firms applied for financing in the prior 12 months.

November 8, 2017 11

Report highlights Demand for financing

Traditional lenders are most common, but medium/high credit risk

firms more often seek credit from online lenders, regardless of age.

November 8, 2017 12

Report highlights Financing approvals

November 8, 2017 13

Startup firms are less likely to be fully funded than older firms, even

when their credit risk is similar.

Report highlights Financing approvals by source

November 8, 2017 14

Low credit risk startup firms had greatest success at small banks.

Higher credit risk startup firms did best with online lenders.

Report highlights Lender satisfaction

November 8, 2017 15

Questions?

November 8, 2017 16

Claire Kramer Mills


[email protected]

Forthcoming reports on minority-owned firms, women-owned firms,

microbusinesses and nonemployer firms.

mailto:[email protected]

The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.

US Macro Overview Richard Peach, Senior Vice President

Presented to SBAAC August 17, 2017

Overview • US economy likely grew around 2% (annual rate) over the first

half of 2017, the same as in 2015 and 2016. • Consumer spending and housing leading the economy, business

investment remains sluggish.

• Several indicators suggest that the economy is at or near full employment, leading the FOMC to begin to gradually increase the federal funds rate.

• However, underlying inflation remains below the FOMC’s objective of 2%, and in recent months has begun to slow. • The question policy makers and markets are struggling with is whether

this recent slow is due to transitory factors or something more fundamental.

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Disposable Income and Consumption

12 Month % Change 12 Month % Change

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis,

Federal Reserve Board via Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.

Real Personal

Consumption

Real

Disposable

Income

1

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

400 450 500 550 600 650 700

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Source: Bureau of Economic

Analysis and Federal Reserve Board

Households’ Net Worth as a Percent of Disposable Income

2006Q1 to

present

Note: Fitted line is from 1983Q1 to 2005Q4.

Personal Saving Rate and Household Net Worth Personal Saving Rate (Percent) Personal Saving Rate (Percent)

2017Q1

(662, 3.9)

1983Q1 to

2005Q4

2006Q1

(647, 3.8)

2

15

15.5

16

16.5

17

17.5

18

18.5

19

15

15.5

16

16.5

17

17.5

18

18.5

19

1980 1990 2000 2010

Household Financial Obligation Ratio

Ratio Ratio

Source: Federal Reserve Board via Haver

Analytics

Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.

Series 1

(Left Axis)

Series 2

(Right Axis)

Series 3

(Left Axis)

Series 4

(Right Axis)

Series 5

(Left Axis)

Series 6

(Right Axis)

3

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

03:Q1 04:Q1 05:Q1 06:Q1 07:Q1 08:Q1 09:Q1 10:Q1 11:Q1 12:Q1 13:Q1 14:Q1 15:Q1 16:Q1 17:Q1

Student Loan

Transition into Delinquency (90+) by Loan Type

Source: New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax

Note: 4 Quarter Moving Sum

Student loan data are not reported prior to 2004 due to uneven reporting

Credit Card

Mortgage

Auto Loan

HE Revolving

Percent of Balance Percent of Balance

4

5

Single Family Housing Market

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

12 Month % Change Months

Source: CoreLogic, National Association of

Realtors, via Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.

Single Family

House Price Index

(Left Axis)

Months’

Supply

(Right Axis)

“Normal” Range for

Months’ Supply

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Housing Starts

Thousands, 3 MMA Thousands, 3 MMA

Source: Census Bureau Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.

Total Multifamily

(Left Axis)

1 Unit

(Right Axis)

6

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Credit Score at Mortgage Origination Credit Score Credit Score

Source: FRBNY / Consumer Credit Panel


Median

10th Percentile

25th Percentile

Series 4

(Right Axis)

Series 5

(Left Axis)

Series 6

(Right Axis)

7

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

60 65 70 75 80 85 90

Quarterly data

1980Q1 – 2017Q2

Equipment Investment Spending and Capacity Utilization

Real Business Investment in New Equipment

(% Change – Year to Year)

Real Business Investment in New Equipment

(% Change – Year to Year)

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Manufacturing Capacity Utilization

(Percent of Capacity)

2017 Q2:

(75.5, 0)

8

-50

0

50

100

150

-50

0

50

100

150

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Billions of Chained 2009 $ Billions of Chained 2009 $

Real Change in Private Nonfarm Inventories

2.25

2.3

2.35

2.4

2.25

2.3

2.35

2.4

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Ratio Ratio Ratio: Private Inventories/Final Sales

Source: BEA, Haver.


Q2-2017: 2.32

Q2-2017: $1.9B

9

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

30

40

50

60

70

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

ISM Manufacturing Index and Manufacturing

Index 12 Month % Change

Source: Institute for Supply Management,

Federal Reserve Board Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.

ISM Manufacturing

Index

(Left Axis)

Industrial Production:

Manufacturing

(Right Axis)

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Potential GDP

GDP

2000Q1 to 2007Q4:

2.5% Growth Rate

2009Q2 to 2017Q2:

2.1% Growth Rate

Trillions of 2009 US$ Trillions of 2009 US$

Time Period Potential

GDP Growth

2000 – 2007 2.7%

2010 – 2016 1.4%

2016 – 2022 1.7%


Congressional Budget Office via Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.

11

-0.75

0

0.75

1.5

2.25

3

3.75

4.5

-0.75

0

0.75

1.5

2.25

3

3.75

4.5

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015

Labor Force and Nonfarm Business Sector Real Output

20-Qtr %Change-annualized 20-Qtr %Change-annualized

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver

Analytics


Civilian Labor

Force: 16+

Nonfarm Business Sector:

Real Output per Hour of All

Persons

Series 3

(Left Axis)

Series 4

(Right Axis)

Series 5

(Left Axis)

Series 6

(Right Axis)

12

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Labor Market Indicators Percent Percent


Unemployment Rate

(Left Axis)

Labor Force

Participation Rate

(Right Axis)

Employment to

Population Ratio

(Right Axis)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

via Haver Analytics

13

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016


Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

via Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.

Total PCE

Core PCE

FOMC Objective for

Headline PCE Inflation

Measure of Underlying PCE Price Inflation

14



via Haver Analytics

Core Goods CPI

Core Services CPI


CPI Inflation: Core Goods and Core Services

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Total Core CPI

15

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Owner’s Equivalent Rent

% Change % Change


Analytics


Year to Year OER

3-month

Annualized OER

Series 3

(Left Axis)

Series 4

(Right Axis)

Series 5

(Left Axis)

Series 6

(Right Axis)

16

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

-16

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Cellular Telephone Price Index

% Change % Change

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via

Haver Analytics


12 Month

(Left Axis)

3 Month

Annualized

(Right Axis)

Series 3

(Left Axis)

Series 4

(Right Axis)

Series 5

(Left Axis)

Series 6

(Right Axis)

Weight in Core PCE

Deflator = 1%

17

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Prescription Drug Price Index

% Change % Change


Haver Analytics


12 Month

(Left Axis)

3 Month

Annualized

(Right Axis)

Series 3

(Left Axis)

Series 4

(Right Axis)

Series 5

(Left Axis)

Series 6

(Right Axis)

Weight in Core PCE

Deflator = 3.8%

18

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Core Goods PCE Deflator and Import Price Index

% Change – Year to Year % Change – Year to Year


Analytics


Core Goods

PCE Deflator

(Left Axis)

Import Price Index:

Nonpetroleum Imports,

16 Month Lead

(Right Axis)

Series 3

(Left Axis)

Series 4

(Right Axis)

Series 5

(Left Axis)

Series 6

(Right Axis)

19

Reference Charts

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

60

65

70

1955 1962 1969 1976 1983 1990 1997 2004 2011

Labor Share of National Income and Unemployment Rate

Percent Rate


Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.

Labor Share of

National

Income

(Left Axis)

Unemployment

Rate

(Right Axis)

Series 3

(Left Axis)

Series 4

(Right Axis)

20

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Rental Vacancy Rate and Rent of Primary Residence

Percent 12 Month % Change

Source: Census Bureau, BLS via Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.

Rental

Vacancy Rate

(Left Axis)

Rent of Primary

Residence

(Right Axis)

21

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Housing Units Under Construction: 5 or More Units

Thousands of units

Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics.


Series 1

(Left Axis)

Series 2

(Right Axis)

Series 3

(Left Axis)

Series 4

(Right Axis)

Series 5

(Left Axis)

Series 6

(Right Axis)

Thousands of units

22

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

4 Quarter % Change 4 Quarter % Change

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

via Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.

Federal

State and Local

Real Government Consumption and Gross Investment

23

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Real Exports and Nonoil Imports of Goods


Source: Census Bureau via Haver

Analytics


Exports Nonoil

Imports

24

0

1

2

3

4

0

1

2

3

4

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Annual % change Annual % change


via Haver Analytics


Average Hourly

Earnings

Employment

Cost Index

Growth of Average Hourly Earnings and ECI

25

Michigan Inflation Expectations 5 to 10 Years

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Percent Percent

Source: University of Michigan Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.

25th Percentile

Median

75th Percentile

26

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1952 1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 2012

Household Liabilities over Disposable Personal Income

Source: Federal Reserve Board Note: Shading represents NBER recessions.

Percent Percent

27

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

1968 1978 1988 1998 2008

Housing Starts and Existing Homes Sales Per Capita

Units Units

Source: BLS, Census Bureau, NAR


Housing Starts

Existing Home

Sales

Series 3

(Left Axis)

Series 4

(Right Axis)

Series 5

(Left Axis)

Series 6

(Right Axis)

.0178

(average over 1968-2003)

.009

(average over 1968-2003)

28

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Total 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

Age Cohorts

Homeownership Rate 1994 2004 2016

Source: Census Bureau

29

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Saving and Investment Balance

Percent of GDP Percent of GDP


Haver Analytics


Domestic

Business

Households and

Institutions

Net Government

Saving

Current Account Series 5

(Left Axis)

Series 6

(Right Axis)

30

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

TIPS Based Inflation Expectations

Percent Percent

Source: Federal Reserve Board

Note: Carry-adjusted

4-5 Years

2-3 Years

5-10 Years

Series 4

(Right Axis)

Series 5

(Left Axis)

Series 6

(Right Axis)

Aug 8:

1.89

Aug 8:

1.98

Aug 8:

1.83

31

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Actual and Expected Fed Funds Target Percent Percent

Source: Federal Reserve Board

Actual

July 12, 2017

August 9, 2017

32

Overview of the Regional Economy Jason Bram, Research Officer

Presented to SBAAC August 17, 2017 The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.

Private-Sector Job Trends Percent Change From Previous Peak to June 2017

AL

Down Flat Up to 3% Up 3% to 7% Up More Than 7%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com.

AK FL

HI

PR

AZ AR

CA CO

CT NJ DE MD

GA

ID

IL IN

IA

KS KY

LA

ME

VT NH MA RI MI

MN

MS

MO

MT

NE NV

NM

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA

SC

SD

TN

TX

UT

VA

WA

WV

WI

WY

2

Recent Private-Sector Job Trends Year-Over-Year Percent Change as of June 2017

AL

Down Flat Up to 1.25% Up 1.25% to 2% Up More Than 2%


AK FL

HI

PR

AZ AR

CA CO

CT NJ DE MD

GA

ID

IL IN

IA

KS KY

LA

ME

VT NH MA RI MI

MN

MS

MO

MT

NE NV

NM

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA

SC

SD

TN

TX

UT

VA

WA

WV

WI

WY

3

88

92

96

100

104

108

116 112

2007 2008 2009 2017 2018

Private-Sector Employment

Index (Dec2007=100) 120


Shading indicates NBER recession

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

New York

New York City

United States

New Jersey

Puerto Rico

Seasonally Adjusted Index

Jul

Jun

4

Local Job Growth in the Region Annual Percent Change, June 2017

5

Glens Falls

Elmira Binghamton Kingston

Buffalo Rochester Syracuse

Utica

Albany

Ithaca

NYC

Watertown

Dut

ches

s-

Putn

am

North Country

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody’s Economy.com; data are early benchmarked by FRBNY staff. Notes: Bergen* and Middlesex* are the Bergen-Hudson-Passaic and Middlesex-Monmouth-Ocean Special BLS Areas. Annual percent change calculated as the average of the last 12 months over the average of the previous 12 months.

Lower Hudson

Middlesex*

Newark

Moderate Growth (1.0% to 2.0%)

Modest Growth (0.5% to 1.0%)

Little or No Growth (-0.5% to 0.5%)

Declining (less than -0.5%)

88

92

96

100

104

108

2007 2008 2009

Seasonally Adjusted Index Index (Dec2007=100)

120 116 112



2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

United States

Upstate

Utica Glens Falls

Albany


Jul

Jun

6

88

92

96

100

104

108

112

116

2007 2008 2009 2016 2017 2018



2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Orange-Rockland- Westchester

Downstate

Dutchess-Putnam

United States

Kingston

Jul

Seasonally Adjusted Index Index (Dec2007=100)

120


Jun

7

88

92

96

100

104

108

2007 2008 2009

Private-Sector Employment Seasonally Adjusted Index

Index (Dec2007=100) 120 116 112



2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

United States

Upstate

Ithaca

Binghamton

Elmira

Jul

Jun

8

88

92

96

100

104

108

2007 2008 2009

Private-Sector Employment Seasonally Adjusted Index

Index (Dec2007=100) 120 116 112



2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

United States

Upstate

Rochester

Buffalo

Syracuse

Jul

Jun

9

88

92

96

100

104

108

116 112

2007 2008 2009 2017 2018


Index (Dec2007=100) 120



2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Orange-Rockland- Westchester

New York City

Long Island

United States

Fairfield

Seasonally Adjusted Index

Jul

Jun

10

Shading indicates time between securities

peak and trough

Securities Employment

(left axis) Total Employment Minus Securities

(right axis)

60

90

120

150

180

210

240

270

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2,500

2,750

3,000

3,250

3,500

3,750

4,000

4,250

NYC Securities Employment Seasonally Adjusted Levels

Jun

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's Economy.com, and FRBNY calculations.

Thousands Thousands

11

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

FRBNY Business Surveys, Current Conditions Diffusion Index

60

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

2007 2008 2009


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Empire State Manufacturing Survey

Business Leaders Survey

Current Economic Conditions

Aug

12

Sandy

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

FRBNY Business Surveys, Conditions Six Months Ahead Diffusion Index

60 Empire State

Manufacturing Survey

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

2007 2008 2009


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Business Leaders Survey

Future Economic Conditions

Aug

13

60

70

80

90

100

110

2006 2007 2008 2009


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

New York State

United States

NYC Metro

Downstate NY

Home Prices in the Region CoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted

Index (Mar2006=100) 120

Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales).

Upstate NY

Jun

14

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2006 2007 2008 2009 2017 2018

Home Prices: Upstate NY


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

United States

Albany Rochester

Upstate NY

Buffalo

CoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted Index (Mar2006=100)

130


Jun

15

60

80

100

120

140

2006 2007 2008 2009

United States Shading indicates NBER recession

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Suffolk

Kings

Nassau Queens

Manhattan

Home Prices: NYC Area CoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted

Index (Mar2006=100) 160


Jun

16

60

70

80

90

100

110

2006 2007 2008 2009


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

United States

NYC Metro

Fairfield

Westchester

Rockland

CoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted Index (Mar2006=100)

120


Jun

Northern NJ

Home Prices: NYC Area

17

Recap

• Job growth has been strongest in downstate New York. − New York City continues to be the engine of job growth.

− Northern NJ and Fairfield County have seen sluggish job gains.

− Access to NYC’s robust job market benefits the metro region.

• Job growth in upstate NY has slowed to a crawl − Metro Albany & Ithaca continue to lead.

− The Southern Tier (Binghamton & Elmira) continues to lag.

• Puerto Rico continues to weaken, driven by public sector.

• Business surveys signal strong pickup in NY manufacturing.

• Home prices rising across most of the region − Two noteworthy exceptions are Manhattan and Fairfield County.

Small Business & Agriculture Advisory Council Federal ...€¦ · Why startups? • 34% of all...

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