Slow Boil: Colombia’s response to the chronic emergency of climate vulnerability
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Transcript of Slow Boil: Colombia’s response to the chronic emergency of climate vulnerability
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Slow Boil:Colombia’s response to the chronic
emergency ofclimate vulnerability
Brown UniversityProvidence, 8 April 2011
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Outline
1. The rise of climate adaptation in LAC
2. Colombia & the global climate talks
3. Colombia’s climate vulnerability
4. How to shoot the rapids and survive?
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The rise of climate adaptation
“It was understood that [the Kyoto Protocol] would only include commitments to reduce emissions…
– Michael Zammit-Cutajar1
“A […] critical element for success in Cancún is to strike a better balance when considering climate adaptation and mitigation”
– Yvo de Boer2
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The rise of climate adaptation LAC
Scaled-up interest / participation
Shifting priorities
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The rise of climate adaptation
Just 11% of accumulated
global emissions
(1990-2005)
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Big differences in GHG emissions…
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… but climate vulnerability is a common concern
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The rise of climate adaptation
Probabilidad de ocurrencia
Un evento cada X años
Probabilidad de ocurrencia disminuye
Daños
millones USD 2008
Ejemplo curva de vulnerabilidad para inundación en Guyana
Caso extremo 2030
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COP 1Berlin1995
COP 6Bonn 2001
COP 10Buenos Aires2004
COP 12Nairobi 2006
Colombia & the global climate talks
< 2006 Niche area (Envt. & Foreign Affairs) CDM / Forests focus
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Colombia & the global climate talks
2007 – 2009 Strategic relations w/ ,
like-minded partners beyond LAC (e.g. AOSIS)
Leadership role on adaptation / finance
Pres. Uribe in group of 25 leaders at CPH
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Colombia & the global climate talks
2010 < CPH Accord / Cancun pledge Cartagena Dialogue Broader x-Govt participation
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Colombia flood emergency, 2010-11• 2.3 million affected in 28 of 32 states• 310 dead• 6,700 homes destroyed
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Economic impacts• Short term:
• Crop loss• Food price spike• Localized (household / community impacts)
• Long term:• It depends!?
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Failed humanitarian response Late
Poorly coordinated
Inadequate (below international standards)
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Colombia’s climate vulnerability
What went wrong? High exposure:
– Yes, but not worst in 60 years…1988 La Niña– Yearly victims in Colombia
Resources:– No, plenty of resources!
Response coordination:– Yes, Politically-bungled– UN didn’t help
Underlying structural vulnerabilities– Yes! Inequality
Persistent failure to embrace ARR
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How to shoot the rapids and survive?
1. Embrace ‘disaster risk management’:– Political & operational power of Govt.
disaster management agency– Comprehensive, sustainable, effective
disaster risk management policy:– Sustained investment in local disaster
management capacities– Structural fund for climate adaptation & risk
management
2. Reconcile with countervailing development pathway
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Conclusions
1. Climate adaptation, Latin American imperative
2. Colombia, international climate champion
3. Colombia, domestic disaster victim
4. Colombia (and LAC) can build resilience, but only by reconciling divergent paths
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Notes
1. Climate Change TV interview (video), June 2009: http://www.climate-change.tv/michael-zammit-cutajar-june-2009
2. “Copenhagen shows we need caution in Cancún,” Nature, 24 November 2010: http://www.nature.com/news/2010/101124/full/468477a.html
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