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32
Timber Mart-South 1 Status of Wood Exports: Economic & Social Issues Jonathan Smith, Editor Dr. Harrison Hood, Research Editor
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Timber Mart-South 1
Status of Wood Exports:
Economic & Social Issues
Jonathan Smith, Editor
Dr. Harrison Hood, Research Editor
Overview
• Timber Mart-South
• World Timber Perspective
• US South & North Carolina Trends
• Wood Exports
TimberMart-South 2
Timber Mart-South 3
Forested Regions of the World
Timber Mart-South 4
World Markets
TimberMart-South 5
Top Ten Countries with
Largest Forest Area
Source: FAO 2011.
TimberMart-South 6
Top Countries Growing Stock
Source: FAO 2011.
Timber Mart-South 7
United States in World Context
8%
10%
10%
19%
30%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Forest Land
Timber Inventory
Planted Land
IndustrialRoundwood
Wood Pulp
Source: FAO Global Forest Assessment 2010, FAO Yearbook 2012.
Timber Mart-South 8
US South in World Context
2%
3%
7%
11%
18%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Forest Land
Timber Inventory
Planted Land
Industrial
Roundwood
Wood Pulp
Source: Oswalt et al. 2012, FAO Global Forest Assessment 2010, FAO Yearbook 2012.
9
US South Lumber Production
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Millio
n b
oa
rd fe
et
Softwood Lumber Hardwood Lumber
Source: U.S. Forest Service, U.S. Census, Random Lengths Yardstick, and Hardwood Market Report
Timber Mart-South
Timber Mart-South 10
US South Total Pulpwood Production
0
50
100
150
200
250
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Millio
n to
ns
Source: US Forest Service & CFB Wood Demand.
Timber Mart-South
11
US South Average Annual Sawtimber
Stumpage Prices: Pine & Hardwood Hardwood sawtimber $30.23, higher than Pine sawtimber $25.58 (2014),
continues trend of increasing hardwood/pine spread
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
US
$ p
er
ton
Hardwood Sawtimber Pine Sawtimber
Source: U.S. Forest Service & Timber Mart-South.
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US South Average Pulpwood
Stumpage Prices
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
US
$ p
er
ton
Hardwood Pulpwood Pine Pulpwood
Source: U.S. Forest Service & Timber Mart-South.
TimberMart-South 13
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Pine Sawtimber Stumpage US$/TonQuarterly Average
South-wide North Carolina
-2.8% Annual Decrease
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$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Hardwood Sawtimber Stumpage US$/TonQuarterly Average
South-wide North Carolina
2.7% Annual Increase
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$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Chip-n-Saw Stumpage US$/TonQuarterly Average
South-wide North Carolina
-0.7% Annual Decrease
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$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Pine Pulpwood Stumpage US$/TonQuarterly Average
South-wide North Carolina
1.8% Annual Increase
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$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Hardwood Pulpwood Stumpage US$/TonQuarterly Average
South-wide North Carolina
3.8% Annual Increase
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Southern Pine Reforestation Trends
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Th
ou
sa
nd
ac
res
Source: USDA Forest Service.
US Wood Export Market
• US wood exports have increased by
140% since 2004.
– The volume of wood exports has increased by about
10% each year.
• South exports roughly 2/3rds of all US
wood exports.
• Fuel wood is major export product
– Includes chips and pellets
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South vs. Total US Wood
Exports
Source: US Census Bureau
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0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Vo
lum
e (b
illi
on
kg
)
Total US Export Volume (billion kg)
South Total US
Total Wood Export Volume by
Southern Port (2014)
Source: US Census Bureau Timber Mart-South 21
Savannah, GA40%
Norfolk-Newport News, VA
23%
Mobile, AL11%
Charleston, SC11%
Wilmington, NC6%
Jacksonville, FL3%
Houston, TX2%
New Orleans, LA2% Brunswick, GA
1% Others1%
Southern Wood Exports by
Volume & Product
Source: US Census Bureau
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0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Vo
lum
e (b
illi
on
kg
)
Volume of Southern Wood Exports(billion kg)
Woodpulp Roundwood Sawnwood Fuel Wood
Chip Export Volume
vs. US Exchange Rate
Timber Mart-South 23Source: US Federal Reserve Bank, US Census Bureau
80
90
100
110
120
130
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Tra
de W
eig
hte
d E
xch
an
ge R
ate
Exp
ort
s (
mill
ion
m
etr
ic t
on
s)
US Dollar Trade Weighted Exchange Rate and Chip Exports (million metric tons)
Chip Exports Trade Weighted Exchange Rate
US Exchange Rate’s & Trade
• The strength of the US dollar relative to
other major world currencies influences
trade.
– “Strong” dollar decreased trade / exports
– “Weak” dollar increased trade / exports
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Export Markets & Timber
Prices in the South
• Is there an advantage to being located
near a major port?
• We compared stumpage prices between
areas located w/in 100 miles and areas
more than 100 miles from a major port…
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US East Coast Ports
Source: TMS Research.
Stumpage Prices & Port Proximity
Timber Mart-South 27Source: TMS, US Census Bureau
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Stu
mp
ag
e $
/To
n
Pine Pulpwood Stumpage $/Ton by Proximity to Port
>100 miles ≤ 100 miles
Stumpage Prices & Port Proximity
Timber Mart-South 28Source: TMS, US Census Bureau
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Stu
mp
ag
e $
/To
n
Hardwood Pulpwood Stumpage $/Ton by Proximity to Port
>100 miles ≤ 100 miles
Port Location Summary
• Improved pulpwood prices in areas
located in relatively close proximity to a
major port.
– Pine pulpwood: $2.00 - $4.00/ton increase
– Hdwd pulpwood: $1.00 - $2.00/ton increase
• No significant influence on other timber
products.
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Forestry Market Trends
Forest Land Ownership Eras
The U.S. South
• Cotton and Cattle, Timber & Turpentine
• Paper and Vertical Integration
• Lumber Up, Paper Down
• TIMO’s & REITs & Private Investors
• What’s next? Bioenergy??
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Forestry Market Trends
Issues
• Globalization of Forest Commerce
• Tightening Wood Supplies
• Emerging Markets
• Shifting Demand
• Bioenergy
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Questions
