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Transcript of Slide Drag Hi
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Euro area economic situationand the
foundations for growth
Presentation by
Mario DraghiPresident of the European Central Bank
at the Euro Summit
Brussels, 14 March 2013
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3
Euro area unemployment(% of labour force)
Economic situation
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
January2007 January2013
euroarea(2013)
euroarea(2007)
26.4 26.2
Latest data: January 2013 (December 2012 for Greece and Estonia).Source: Eurostat.
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Note: For improved readability, this and subsequent charts only show the countries listed above and do not include FI, EE, SK, SI, CY, MT. Countries are assigned to "External
surplus/deficit" group if they had a current account surplus/deficit in 2007 (the last pre-crisis year). Surplus countries in blue, deficit countries in red.Annual data (smoothed lines). Source: AMECO.
External imbalances
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
AT BE DE LU NL ES FR
GR IE IT PT Surplus Deficit
Current account balance(% of GDP)
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5
Bank credit to firms(annual rate of growth)
Notes: MFI loans to non-financial corporations adjusted for loan sales and securitisation. 3-month moving average.Latest observation January 2013. Source: ECB.
Credit situation
8
6
4
2
0
2
4
6
8
6
4
2
0
2
4
6
01/2010 07/2010 01/2011 07/2011 01/2012 07/2012 01/2013
euroarea DE ES FR IT
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6
Note: Budget balance is corrected for capital injections into banks.
Source: European Commission 2013 Winter Economic Forecast.
General government debt (2012)(% of GDP)
Government deficits (2012)(% of GDP)
Fiscal situation
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140Debt>90% 90%>Debt>60% Debt3% 3%>Deficit>2% Deficit
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Latest data: 2012Q4. Sources: Eurostat, ECB, EC.
Euro area real GDP(annual % growth rate)
Economic situation
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1
2
3
4
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1
2
3
4
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Netexports Domesticdemand GDP
-6.04.0ECBprojectionrange
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Wage and productivity developments
Note: 1999 = 100. Total economy. Productivity is defined as real GDP per employee. GDP-weighted average by country group.
Annual data (smoothed lines). Source: AMECO.
Compensation Productivity
The competitiveness problem
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
Compensationper
employee
(deficitcountries)
Compensationperemployee
(surpluscountries)
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
116
118
120
122
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
116
118
120
122
Productivity(deficitcountries)
Productivity
(surpluscountries)
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Austria
10
Wage and productivity developments
Note: 1999 = 100. Total economy. Productivity is defined as real GDP per employee. Annual data (smoothed lines). Source: AMECO.
Germany
Spain ItalyFrance
Portugal
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Compensationperemployee
Productivity
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Compensationperemployee
Productivity
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Compensationperemployee
Productivity
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Compensationperemployee
Productivity
Country perspective (selection)
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Compensationperemployee
Productivity
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Compensationperemployee
Productivity
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Business margins(%, national accounts)
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
Ext.surplusgroup
Ext.deficit
group
Profitability problems
Negotiated wages and employment
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
9494
Negotiatedwages Externalsurpluscountries
Employment Externalsurpluscountries
Negotiatedwages Externaldeficitcountries
Employment
Externaldeficit
countries
Net operating surplus / value added for nonfinancial corporations (4-quarter averages)
Latest observation: 2012Q3. Sources: Eurostat, ECB.
Right-hand chart:
Note: 1999 = 100. GDP-weighted average by country group. Due to data availability,
External surplus group does not include Luxembourg, and External deficit group
does not include Greece and Ireland. Annual data (smoothed lines).Source: Eurostat.
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Corporate bond yields(percentage points)
Note: EMU all maturities. Monthly data; Latest data: February 2013.
Sources: BofA Merril Lynch, Datastream and ECB calculations.
Government bond yields(percentage points)
Note: 3-month moving average of monthly data. Latest data: February 2013.
Sources: Thomson Reuters and ECB calculations.
Confidence returning
3
4
5
6
7
8
3
4
5
6
7
8
Jul11 Oct11 Jan12 Apr12 Jul12 Oct12 Jan13
Mediumgrade
bonds
First3yr LTRO OMTannounced
Returnofconfidence
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
Apr12 Jun12 Aug12 Oct12 Dec12 Feb13
Spain Italy
Portugal(rhs) Ireland(rhs)
OMTannounced
Returnofconfidence
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Interest rate on new loans to firms(Loans up to EUR 1 million to firms, percent per annum)
Source: ECB.
Problems for smaller firms
2
3
4
5
6
7
2
3
4
5
6
7
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Germany Spain France Italy
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Government deficits in 2009 and 2012(% of GDP)
Note: Budget balance is corrected for capital injections into banks.
Source: European Commission's winter 2013 economic forecast and ESCB.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2009 2012
15.6
Fiscal progress
0.2
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Conclusions
1. Review of product and labour markets to see whether they are
compatible with participation in monetary union
2. Reform contracts for countries with pressing competitiveness
problems.
3. Full implementation of Single Market legislation
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