SLIDE 1 Dan Rickman Regents Professor of Economics and Oklahoma Gas and Electric Services Chair in...
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SLIDE 1
Dan RickmanRegents Professor of Economics andOklahoma Gas and Electric Services Chair in Regional Economic Analysis
Oklahoma State Universityhttp://economy.okstate.edu/
Oklahoma Economic Outlook 2016
SLIDE 2
U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product Growth (%):IHS Global Insight Forecast
2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q40.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
U.S. Real GDP-Pess U.S. Real GDP-Base
SLIDE 3
Oil Prices (IHS Global Insight, Inc.): West Texas Intermediate Oil ($/bbl)
2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q430
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
40.450.1
53.156.8
WTI-Pess WTI-Base
SLIDE 4
Natural Gas Prices (IHS Global Insight, Inc.): Henry Hub Natural Gas ($/mmBtu)
2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q42.5
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.5
3.7
3.9
4.1
PNGHH-Pess
SLIDE 5October 2014-2015 BLS Nonfarm Employment Growth Rates (%)
North Dakota
West Virginia
Louisiana
Oklahoma
Wyoming
New Mexico
Illinois
Alaska
Mississippi
Kansas
Vermont
Pennsylvania
MinnesotaMontana Maine
DelawareMissouri
New Hampshire
District of Columbia
Alabama
Nebraska
Rhode Island
Virginia
New Jersey
Iowa
Ohio
Connecticut
Arkansas
Kentucky
Texas
Tennessee
New YorkWisconsinSouth Dakota
Michigan
Hawaii
Maryland
Indiana
Colorado
North Carolina
Georgia
Arizona
Massachusetts
Oregon
South Carolina
California
Washington
Florida
NevadaUtah
Idaho
-3.00 to 0.900.90 to 1.441.44 to 2.172.17 to 4.79
0.1
0.4
0.2
-2.0
-1.8
0.8
U.S. = 1.9
SLIDE 6
Oklahoma Rotary Rig Count (Baker Hughes)
2000
Q1
2000
Q3
2001
Q1
2001
Q3
2002
Q1
2002
Q3
2003
Q1
2003
Q3
2004
Q1
2004
Q3
2005
Q1
2005
Q3
2006
Q1
2006
Q3
2007
Q1
2007
Q3
2008
Q1
2008
Q3
2009
Q1
2009
Q3
2010
Q1
2010
Q3
2011
Q1
2011
Q3
2012
Q1
2012
Q3
2013
Q1
2013
Q3
2014
Q1
2014
Q3
2015
Q1
2015
Q350
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
7881
Oklahoma Rig Count
SLIDE 7
Oklahoma Energy Production: Deseasonalized (2000:1=1)
2005M012005M112006M092007M072008M052009M032010M012010M112011M092012M072013M052014M032015M010.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
Natural Gas Oil
SLIDE 8
U.S. and Oklahoma Mining Employment (Annualized %Change)
2000
Q2
2001
Q1
2001
Q4
2002
Q3
2003
Q2
2004
Q1
2004
Q4
2005
Q3
2006
Q2
2007
Q1
2007
Q4
2008
Q3
2009
Q2
2010
Q1
2010
Q4
2011
Q3
2012
Q2
2013
Q1
2013
Q4
2014
Q3
2015
Q2
2016
Q1
2016
Q4
2017
Q3
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
US Mining OK Mining
SLIDE 9
US and Oklahoma Nonfarm Employment Growth Rates (Deseasonalized Annualized % change)
2008
Q1
2008
Q4
2009
Q3
2010
Q2
2011
Q1
2011
Q4
2012
Q3
2013
Q2
2014
Q1
2014
Q4
2015
Q3
2016
Q2
2017
Q1
2017
Q4
2018
Q3
2019
Q2
2020
Q1
2020
Q4
2021
Q3
2022
Q2
2023
Q1
2023
Q4
2024
Q3
2025
Q2
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
US Nonfarm Emp OK Nonfarm Emp
SLIDE 10
Pessimistic Scenario: Oklahoma Nonfarm Employment
2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q41,650
1,660
1,670
1,680
1,690
1,700
1,710
0.00%
0.10%
0.20%
0.30%
0.40%
0.50%
0.60%
0.70%
0.80%
0.90%
1.00%
0.22%
0.76%
0.94%
Difference OK Nonfarm Emp-Pess OK Nonfarm Emp-Base
SLIDE 11
Contact us for programs to be offered on-site at your organizationWeb: www.cepd.okstate.eduTwitter: @OSUCEPDFacebook: OSUCEPDPhone: 405-744-5208
THANK YOU!