Skills jobseekers need in the modern labour market

Paul BivandAssociate Director of Analysis &

Statistics Inclusion

What is the shape of the labour market as recession

ebbs?Analysed recruitment patterns in

London using Labour Force SurveySince 2011, 1.4 million people

starting new jobs in London600,000 a year – on average

– 225,000 a year in Central London– 170,000 a year in the rest of Inner

London– 205,000 a year in Outer London

The pattern by occupation

Managers, Directors etc.

Professionals

Associate Professionals

Administrative and Secretarial

Skilled Trades

Caring, Leisure and Other Services

Sales and Customer Services

Process, Plant, Drivers, etc

Elementary jobs

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000

Outer London Inner London Central London

The pattern by skill level

NQF Level 4 and above

NQF Level 3

Trade Apprenticeships

NQF Level 2

Below NQF Level 2

No qualifications

Other qualifications

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000

Outer London Inner London Central London

Qualification level of the average recruit

Managers, Directors etc.

Professionals

Associate Professionals

Administrative and Secretarial

Skilled Trades

Caring, Leisure and Other Services

Sales and Customer Services

Process, Plant, Drivers, etc

Elementary jobs

0 1 2 3 4

Outer London Inner London Central London

Patterns of recruitmentSome occupation groups for

recruitment are high turnover – job growth is lower– Elementary jobs– Sales and customer service

But, employers are recruiting at above entry level– More than half of recruits for elementary

jobs have Level 3 (+)– Same for Caring etc, Sales & customer

services in Central and Inner London

Employment rates by qualification

None

Below

NQF

Leve

l 2

NQF Le

vel 2

NQF Le

vel 3

Other

Qua

lifica

tions

Trad

e App

rent

icesh

ips

NQF Le

vel 4

and

abo

ve0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Qualifications of employed and workless

In employment

Workless

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

None Below NQF Level 2 NQF Level 2NQF Level 3 Other Qualifications Trade ApprenticeshipsNQF Level 4 and above

Vacancy trendsONS vacancy survey doesn’t give

London figuresJobcentre vacancy figures ended

November 2012Universal Jobmatch figures started

straight after

Jobcentre vacancies to November 2012

Dec 2008 May 2009 Oct 2009 Mar 2010 Aug 2010 Jan 2011 Jun 2011 Nov 2011 Apr 2012 Sep 20120

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

West London West London SA East London East London SA

Universal Jobmatch vacancies in London

Nov 2

012

Dec 2

012

Jan

2013

Feb

2013

Mar

201

3

Apr 2

013

May

201

3

Jun

2013

Jul 2

013

Aug 2

013

Sep

2013

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

JCP new vacancies – ratio to new JSA claims (to Nov

2012)

Sep 2008

Dec 2008

Mar 2009

Jun 2009

Sep 2009

Dec 2009

Mar 2010

Jun 2010

Sep 2010

Dec 2010

Mar 2011

Jun 2011

Sep 2011

Dec 2011

Mar 2012

Jun 2012

Sep 20120.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Same measure for occupations

Date

Elementary Agricultural Occupations

Elementary Construction Occupations

Elementary Process Plant Occupations

Elementary Goods Storage Occupations

Elementary Administration Occupations

Elementary Personal Services Occupations

Elementary Cleaning Occupations

Elementary Security Occupations

Elementary Sales Occupations

Process Operatives

Plant And Machine Operatives

Assemblers And Routine Operatives

Construction Operatives

Transport Drivers And Operatives

Mobile Machine Drivers And Operatives

Sales Assistants And Retail Cashiers

Sales Related Occupations

Customer Service Occupations

Administrative Occupations

Secretarial and Related Occupations

Skilled Agricultural Trades

Skilled Metal and Electronic Trades

Skilled Construction and Building Trades

Textiles, Printing and Other Skilled Trades

Caring Personal Service Occupations

Leisure and Other Personal Service Occupations

Sep 2008 0 1 0 0 2 1 2 2 0 5 3 1 1 1 2 0 9 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 1

Oct 2008 0 1 0 0 1 1 2 2 0 4 2 1 2 2 2 0 20 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 1

Nov 2008 0 1 0 0 1 1 2 3 0 3 2 1 1 2 2 0 18 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 1

Dec 2008 0 1 0 0 1 1 2 2 0 2 2 1 1 2 2 0 18 1 0 1 1 2 1 1 3 1

Jan 2009 0 1 0 0 2 1 2 3 0 2 2 1 1 2 2 0 14 1 0 1 1 2 1 1 3 1

Feb 2009 0 1 0 0 2 1 2 3 0 2 1 1 1 1 2 0 14 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 1

Mar 2009 0 1 0 0 2 1 2 3 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 13 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 3 1

Apr 2009 0 1 0 0 1 1 2 2 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 13 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 3 1

May 2009 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 2 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 10 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1

Jun 2009 1 1 0 0 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 9 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 1

Jul 2009 1 1 0 0 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 6 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 2 1

Aug 2009 1 1 0 0 2 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 7 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 1

Sep 2009 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 6 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 2 1

Oct 2009 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 7 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 2 0

Nov 2009 1 0 0 0 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1

Dec 2009 1 0 0 0 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 6 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1

Jan 2010 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 6 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1

Feb 2010 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 7 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0

Mar 2010 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 7 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0

Apr 2010 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 7 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0

May 2010 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 6 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0

Jun 2010 1 0 0 0 2 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 2 0

Jul 2010 1 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 2 1

Aug 2010 1 0 0 0 2 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 2 1

Sep 2010 1 0 0 0 2 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 1

Oct 2010 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 4 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1

Nov 2010 1 1 0 0 2 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 6 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 0

Dec 2010 2 1 0 0 2 0 1 1 0 1 1 3 1 1 2 0 7 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 2 0

Jan 2011 2 1 0 0 2 0 1 1 0 1 1 2 1 2 2 0 8 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 1

Feb 2011 2 1 0 0 2 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 1 2 2 0 8 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 1

Mar 2011 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 1 1 2 2 0 10 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 1

Apr 2011 1 1 0 0 2 1 1 1 0 1 3 1 1 2 3 0 11 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0

May 2011 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 3 1 1 1 3 0 11 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0

Jun 2011 1 1 1 0 3 1 1 1 0 0 2 1 1 2 3 0 13 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1

Jul 2011 1 1 0 0 3 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 0 24 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1

Aug 2011 2 1 0 0 3 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 0 25 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1

Sep 2011 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 0 20 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0

Oct 2011 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 2 3 0 7 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0

Nov 2011 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 2 3 0 8 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0

Dec 2011 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 2 1 2 1 3 0 9 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1

Jan 2012 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 4 0 9 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1

Feb 2012 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 2 1 1 1 4 0 9 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1

Mar 2012 0 1 0 0 2 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 2 1 4 0 7 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1

Apr 2012 1 1 0 0 2 1 1 2 0 1 2 1 3 2 4 0 7 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0

May 2012 1 2 0 0 2 1 1 2 0 1 1 1 3 2 5 0 9 0 0 0 1 1 2 1 1 0

Jun 2012 1 2 0 0 2 1 1 1 0 1 2 2 3 1 5 0 14 0 0 0 1 1 2 1 1 0

Jul 2012 1 1 0 0 2 1 1 2 0 1 2 1 2 2 5 0 29 1 0 0 0 2 1 1 2 1

Aug 2012 1 1 0 0 2 1 1 2 0 1 2 1 2 2 4 0 33 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 1

Sep 2012 1 1 0 0 2 1 2 2 0 2 3 1 2 2 4 0 34 1 0 0 0 2 1 1 2 1

Oct 2012 0 1 0 0 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 3 0 22 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 1

And for local authoritiesDate Camden

Hammersmith & Fulham Haringey Islington

Kensington & Chelsea

Wandsworth

Westminster Barnet Brent Ealing Enfield Harrow

Hillingdon

Hounslow Kingston

Richmond

City of London Hackney Lambeth

Lewisham Newham

Southwark

Tower Hamlets

Barking & Dagenham Bexley Bromley Croydon

Greenwich Havering Merton

Redbridge Sutton

Waltham Forest

Sep 2008 2 2 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 24 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Oct 2008 2 2 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 26 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Nov 2008 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 25 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0

Dec 2008 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 1 20 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1

Jan 2009 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 17 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0

Feb 2009 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 15 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0

Mar 2009 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 14 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0

Apr 2009 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 11 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0

May 2009 1 1 0 1 1 0 2 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 12 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0

Jun 2009 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 12 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0

Jul 2009 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 13 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0

Aug 2009 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 13 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0

Sep 2009 1 0 0 1 1 1 2 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 14 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0

Oct 2009 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 14 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0

Nov 2009 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 14 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0

Dec 2009 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 16 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0

Jan 2010 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 21 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0

Feb 2010 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 27 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0

Mar 2010 1 1 0 1 1 1 3 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 26 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0

Apr 2010 1 1 0 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 24 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0

May 2010 1 1 0 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 26 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0

Jun 2010 2 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 29 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0

Jul 2010 2 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 38 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0

Aug 2010 2 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 38 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0

Sep 2010 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 34 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0

Oct 2010 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 30 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0

Nov 2010 1 1 0 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 29 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0

Dec 2010 1 1 0 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 29 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0

Jan 2011 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 31 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0

Feb 2011 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 37 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0

Mar 2011 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 49 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0

Apr 2011 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 46 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0

May 2011 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 45 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0

Jun 2011 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 42 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0

Jul 2011 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 42 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0

Aug 2011 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 39 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0

Sep 2011 1 1 0 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 47 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0

Oct 2011 1 1 0 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 50 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0

Nov 2011 2 1 0 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 66 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Dec 2011 1 1 0 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 46 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Jan 2012 2 1 0 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 41 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Feb 2012 1 1 0 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 35 0 1 0 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0

Mar 2012 2 1 0 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 41 0 1 0 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Apr 2012 2 1 0 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 48 0 1 0 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0

May 2012 2 1 0 1 1 1 4 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 49 0 1 0 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Jun 2012 1 1 0 1 1 1 6 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 48 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Jul 2012 1 1 0 1 1 1 7 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 56 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Aug 2012 1 1 0 1 1 1 7 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 54 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Sep 2012 1 1 0 1 1 1 5 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 51 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Oct 2012 1 1 0 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 41 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Nov 2012 1 1 0 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 32 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0

Longer term changesWe’ve looked at changes in both the

numbers employed and in the pay levels

Reflecting employer responses to their labour market

5 years up to classification change in 2011

Occupations coloured by skill level of recruits

Next stepsNot simply a story of employment

growth only for highly skilledBut occupation match to skill level

confused by:– Students working in elementary and

sales– Part-time jobs at similar levels– Part-timers often working below their

own skill level