A weekly publication of the Agricultural Marketing Service www.ams.usda.gov/GTR

December 20, 2018

Contents

Article/ Calendar

Grain Transportation

Indicators

Rail

Barge

Truck

Exports

Ocean

Brazil

Mexico

Grain Truck/Ocean Rate Advisory

Datasets

Specialists

Subscription Information

--------------

The next release is

December 27, 2018

Preferred citation: U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service. Grain Transportation Report. December 20, 2018. Web: http://dx.doi.org/10.9752/TS056.12-20-2018

Grain Transportation Report

Contact Us WEEKLY HIGHLIGHTS

Grain Inspections Increase; Wheat Highest Since 2017

For the week ending December 13, total inspections of grain (corn, wheat, and soybeans), for export from all major U.S. export regions,

reached 2.61 million metric tons (mmt); up 15 percent from the previous week, down 17 percent from last year, and down 10 percent from

the 3-year average. Inspections of wheat jumped 52 percent from the previous week, the highest since late September 2017. Demand for

U.S. wheat remained strong from Asia and Latin America. Corn and soybean inspections were up 1 and 10 percent, respectively, from the

previous week. Pacific Northwest grain inspections increased 24 percent from the previous week, and Mississippi Gulf inspections

increased 11 percent for the same period. Outstanding export sales (unshipped) are up from the previous week for wheat, but down for

corn and soybeans.

Heading into Winter, Minor Grain Barge Traffic Delays Reported

For the first half of December, ice accumulations have not been an issue on the Illinois River and lower portions of the Upper Mississippi

River. The St. Louis area of the Mississippi River is operating under normal conditions; however, some dredging activity during night

time hours has caused some delays. The Ohio and Lower Mississippi Rivers are experiencing high water levels, causing some delays and

restrictions of barge tow sizes. For the week ending December 15, there were 816 grain barges unloaded in New Orleans, 3 percent higher

than last week, but 12 percent lower than the 3-year average.

U.S. Department of Transportation Announces Recipients of $1.5 Billion In “BUILD” Grants

Last week, the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) announced the recipients of the Better Utilizing Investment to Leverage

Development (BUILD) grants. The funds span 91 infrastructure projects in 49 states and the District of Columbia. DOT Secretary Elaine

Chao indicated that highway and bridge projects received the largest share (69 percent) of the total $1.5 billion appropriated by Congress.

Rail, transit, and port projects received about $165 million, $141 million, and $146 million, respectively. The maximum award for this

round of BUILD Transportation grants is $25 million and, as specified in the FY 2018 Appropriations Act, no more than $150 million can

be awarded to a single State. At least 30 percent of funds must be awarded to projects located in rural areas.

Snapshots by Sector

Export Sales

For the week ending December 6, unshipped balances of wheat, corn, and soybeans totaled 28.3 mmt, down 17 percent from the same

time last year. Net weekly wheat export sales were .754 mmt, up 6 percent from the previous week. Net corn export sales were .903

mmt, down 23 percent from the previous week. Net soybean export sales were .792 mmt, down 11 percent from the past week

Rail

U.S. Class I railroads originated 23,082 grain carloads for the week ending December 8, up 3 percent from the previous week, down 3

percent from last year, and down 3 percent from the 3-year average.

Average December shuttle secondary railcar bids/offers per car were $263 below tariff for the week ending December 13, down $147

from last week, and down $117 from last year. Average non-shuttle secondary railcar bids/offers per car were $0, up $50 from last week,

and down $100 from last year.

Barge

For the week ending December 15, barge grain movements totaled 853,616 tons, 9 percent higher than the previous week and up 5

percent from the same period last year.

For the week ending December 15, 550 grain barges moved down river, 47 barges more than the previous week. There were 816 grain

barges unloaded in New Orleans, 3 percent higher than the previous week.

Ocean

For the week ending December 13, 33 ocean-going grain vessels were loaded in the Gulf, 15 percent less than the same period last year.

Sixty-six vessels are expected to be loaded within the next 10 days, 22 percent more than the same period last year.

For the week ending December 13, the ocean freight rate for shipping bulk grain, from the Gulf to Japan, was $48.00 per metric ton. The

cost of shipping, from the PNW to Japan, was $25.75 per metric ton.

Fuel

For the week ending December 17, the U.S. average diesel fuel price decreased 4 cents, from the previous week, to $3.121 per gallon, 22

cents above the same week last year.

December 20, 2018

Grain Transportation Report 2

Feature Article/Calendar

Precision Scheduled Railroading, Operating Ratios, and Grain Service Metrics

In September, Union Pacific Railroad (UP) announced its plans to move toward a precision scheduled railroading (PSR) operating model, with rollout beginning October 1, 2018. Norfolk Southern (NS) also recently announced it would implement a version of PSR. The operational changes by these two railroads follow a similar transition at CSX in 2017. Railroads say PSR is an approach to operations that focuses on efficiency and cutting costs through greater asset utilization. PSR reflects a broader trend in the railroad industry to reduce operating ratios (operating costs/revenue).1 Opponents of PSR believe it results in decreased service, in the form of arbitrary reductions in delivery and pulling of trains from facilities, as a result of major reductions in locomotives, crews, and customer service personnel. Proponents of PSR believe it can deliver both greater efficiency and service to rail customers.

Critics of PSR and operating ratio cuts argue railroads have been too exclusively focused on cutting costs and raising rates (in part, through higher accessorial fees), and have not been focused enough on providing quality service. Shippers maintain that cutting operating ratios frequently means sacrificing service and shipper-interests for short-term investor interests. Shippers express concern that focusing too heavily on cutting ostensibly under-used assets leaves railroads, and the service they offer shippers, vulnerable to surges in rail demand resulting from unexpected market changes; setting up a “do less with less” situation over the longer term.2

In contrast, supporters of precision railroading and operating ratio cuts argue it enables them to do “more with less.” For example, part of precision railroading involves a focus on running fewer, but longer, general-purpose trains. Railroads argue doing so reduces congestion, requires less labor and fewer locomotives, and reduces car dwell time. Critics say longer trains are less safe. Supporters believe PSR and lower operating ratios mean providing both a better return on investment for shareholders, as well as better service for shippers.

This article looks at the Surface Transportation Board’s (STB) rail service metrics to assess grain rail service performance in 2018, as well as how CSX service has been affected by its transition to PSR. The article first analyzes CSX service during and after the PSR transition period, and then looks at rail service in 2018 across all Class I railroads.

The CSX Transition to Precision Scheduled Railroading

The late E. Hunter Harrison joined CSX in March of 2017 and immediately announced plans to implement PSR. Harrison had previously implemented the model at the Illinois Central, Canadian National (CN) and Canadian Pacific (CP). Service metrics started in 2017, at relatively normal levels, but around March, grain train speeds began declining while terminal dwell times began rising. In June, origin dwell times began rising. By August, all three metrics had reached their respective lowest/highest points in 2017, well below/above the same point in previous years. During this time, multiple shipper groups complained to STB about CSX service, including a letter from Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue that emphasized the costs of poor rail service to agricultural shippers.3 Figures 1-3 support shipper’s concerns about PSR by showing the decline in CSX’s grain train speeds, increase in terminal

1 For example, UP cited a 55 percent operating ratio as an objective of its new PSR plan, and CSX targeted a 60 percent operating ratio by 2020 through continued implementation of PSR. In its third quarter 2018 earnings call, Norfolk Southern Railway indicated intentions to overhaul operations and said it will release details on PSR adoption in February 2019. In its most recent earnings call, Kansas City Southern Railway said it is open to implementing PSR principles, noting that UP is an important interchange partner. 2 See the National Grain and Feed Association letter (dated March 10, 2018) to the STB on rail service issues. 3 See Secretary Perdue’s letter (dated September 7, 2017) to the STB. STB’s Ex Parte 742 contains testimony from other stakeholders on CSX rail service.

December 20, 2018

Grain Transportation Report 3

dwell times, and increase in grain origin dwell times, respectively. The red line in each figure shows performance during 2017 compared to 2016 in the grey, dashed line.

CSX’s performance in 2018, however, shows significant improvement. The bright blue lines in Figures 1-3 show that after the rough transition period, lasting through October of 2017, CSX’s performance has since improved significantly. Throughout 2018, CSX’s train speeds and terminal dwell times have consistently been better than previous years. Origin dwell times took the longest to decline after the transition but have been below average since March. CSX’s January to October total grain carloads were up 8 percent from 2017, but down 4 percent from 2016.

Grain Rail Service in 2018

Until recent weeks, rail service for grain throughout 2018 has been below average compared to recent years across all Class I railroads.

Figures 4-6 show grain train speeds, terminal dwell times, and grain origin dwell times for each railroad. Each line shows the percentage change from 2015 for that railroad. In 2018, average train speeds have been low and dwell times have been high. CSX, represented by the red line in each of the charts, stands out with generally better metrics in contrast to the other railroads’ performance in 2018.

Railroads have cited labor shortages as an important factor behind 2018 service issues. At the same time, total rail traffic has been high. Poor performance in 2018 supports shipper concerns that years of operating ratio cuts may have reduced the railroads’ ability to respond to unexpected changes in the demand for rail service and the overall economy, including growth in total traffic.

Conclusions While critics and supporters of PSR and operating ratio cuts disagree on the respective merits, the data are nuanced. On one hand, Figures 4-6 illustrate the concerns shippers have been raising over service and Wall Street-led efforts to cut operating ratios. These concerns are likely to persist if the economy stays strong and the demand for rail traffic remains high. On the other hand, CSX performance data demonstrate not all efforts to cut operating ratios always result in poorer service.

According to its metrics, CSX’s service appears to have improved (on average) since implementing PSR. However, there are important limitations to these metrics. First, the data only reflect averages and, therefore, are not reflective of outlier situations. Second, finer-grain service details are also lost in these aggregates, which can hide local problems. For instance, during the CSX transition, shippers complained CSX began only offering service at limited, specified intervals. Such changes represent worse service for those shippers but might show up as faster speeds and reduced dwell times overall. Finally, CSX grain carloads are above 2017 but below 2016 levels, adding ambiguity to whether CSX is, in fact, doing more with less.

While some railroads believe PSR can help them deliver better service and lower operating ratios, many shippers believe lower operating ratios do not always imply railroad efficiency or better customer service. Moreover, shipper testimony during the CSX transition revealed the need for railroads who are planning significant operational changes to communicate with shippers long before changes happen. An open communication channel allows shippers to express their concerns and resolve issues.

jesse.gastelle@usda.gov, adam.sparger@usda.gov, petera.caffarelli@usda.gov

December 20, 2018

Grain Transportation Report 4

Grain Transportation Indicators

The grain bid summary illustrates the market relationships for commodities. Positive and negative adjustments in differential

between terminal and futures markets, and the relationship to inland market points, are indicators of changes in fundamental mar-

ket supply and demand. The map may be used to monitor market and time differentials.

Table 1

Grain Transport Cost Indicators1

Truck Barge Ocean

For the week ending Unit Train Shuttle Gulf Pacific

12/19/18 209 297 232 250 215 1832 58 3 % 4 571% - 8 5% # D IV / 0 ! # D IV / 0 !

12/12/18 212 276 216 229 215 184

Source: Transportation & Marketing Program/AMS/USDA

n/a = not availabe

Rail

1Indicator: Base year 2000 = 100; Weekly updates include truck = diesel ($/gallon); rail = near-month secondary rail market bid and

monthly tariff rate with fuel surcharge ($/car); barge = Illinois River barge rate (index = percent of tariff rate); and ocean = routes to Japan ($/metric ton)

Table 2

Market Update: U.S. Origins to Export Position Price Spreads ($/bushel)

Commodity Origin--Destination 12/14/2018 12/7/2018

Corn IL--Gulf -0.78 -0.77

Corn NE--Gulf -0.89 -0.90

Soybean IA--Gulf -1.07 -1.06

HRW KS--Gulf -1.60 -1.70

HRS ND--Portland -1.78 -1.84

Note: nq = no quote; n/a = not available

Source: Transportation & Marketing Program/AMS/USDA

Figure 1 Grain Bid Summary

December 20, 2018

Grain Transportation Report 5

Rail Transportation

Railroads originate approximately 24 percent of U.S. grain shipments. Trends in these loadings are indicative of

market conditions and expectations.

Table 3

Rail Deliveries to Port (carloads)1

Mississippi Pacific Atlantic & Cross-Border

For the Week Ending Gulf Texas Gulf Northwest East Gulf Total Week ending Mexico3

12/12/2018p

1 702 6,005 339 7,047 12/8/2018 2,842

12/05/2018r

220 369 4,225 320 5,134 12/1/2018 2,931

2018 YTDr

21,816 44,785 300,744 20,669 388,014 2018 YTD 124,404

2017 YTDr

28,054 74,491 276,965 21,310 400,820 2017 YTD 115,224

2018 YTD as % of 2017 YTD 78 60 109 97 97 % change YTD 108

Last 4 weeks as % of 20172

54 44 78 108 74 Last 4wks % 2017 147

Last 4 weeks as % of 4-year avg.2

20 29 77 48 62 Last 4wks % 4 yr 155

Total 2017 28,796 76,545 289,178 21,999 416,518 Total 2017 119,661

Total 2016 36,925 88,035 299,604 29,007 453,571 Total 2016 92,9821 Data is incomplete as it is voluntarily provided2 Compared with same 4-weeks in 2017 and prior 4-year average.

3 Cross-border weekly data is approximately 15 percent below the Association of American Railroads' reported weekly carloads received by Mexican railroads

to reflect switching between KCSM and Grupo Mexico.

YTD = year-to-date; p = preliminary data; r = revised data; n/a = not available

Source: Transportation & Marketing Programs/AMS/USDA

Figure 2

Rail Deliveries to Port

0

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average

Pacific Northwest: 4 wks. ending 12/12--down 22% from same period last year; down 23% from 4-year average

Texas Gulf: 4 wks. ending 12/12--down 56% from same period last year; down 71% from the 4-year average

Miss. River: 4 wks. ending 12/12--down 46% from same period last year; down 80% from 4-year average

Cross-border: 4 wks. ending 12/08--up 47% from same period last year; up 55% from the 4-year average

Source: Transportation & Marketing Programs/AMS/USDA

December 20, 2018

Grain Transportation Report 6

Table 4

Class I Rail Carrier Grain Car Bulletin (grain carloads originated)

For the week ending:

12/8/2018 CSXT NS BNSF KCS UP CN CP

This week 1,510 2,683 13,504 1,032 4,353 23,082 4,065 4,614

This week last year 1,842 2,809 12,993 1,070 5,006 23,720 3,675 5,850

2018 YTD 94,379 124,907 600,375 45,800 253,493 1,118,954 199,789 230,973

2017 YTD 84,288 135,823 546,363 47,838 274,939 1,089,251 187,961 231,800

2018 YTD as % of 2017 YTD 112 92 110 96 92 103 106 100

Last 4 weeks as % of 2017* 90 95 102 97 98 99 119 95

Last 4 weeks as % of 3-yr avg.** 95 89 103 106 91 98 108 97

Total 2017 89,465 142,733 578,964 50,223 289,574 1,150,959 198,428 244,766

*The past 4 weeks of this year as a percent of the same 4 weeks last year.

**The past 4 weeks as a percent of the same period from the prior 3-year average. YTD = year-to-date.

Source: Association of American Railroads (www.aar.org)

East WestU.S. total

Canada

Table 5

Railcar Auction Offerings1

($/car)2

Dec-18 Dec-17 Jan-19 Jan-18 Feb-19 Feb-18 Mar-19 Mar-18

CO T grain units 620 no bids -60 0 6 no bids 6 no bids

CO T grain single-car5

no offer 0 103 1 61 0 11 0

GCAS/Region 1 no offer no offer no bid no bids no bid no bids n/a n/a

GCAS/Region 2 no offer no offer no bid 10 10 10 n/a n/a

1Auctio n o fferings a re fo r s ingle-car and unit tra in s hipments o nly.2Average premium/dis co unt to ta riff, las t auc tio n

3BNSF - COT = Certifica te o f Trans po rta tio n; no rth gra in and s o uth gra in bids were co mbined effec tive the week ending 6/24/06.

4UP - GCAS = Grain Car Allo ca tio n Sys tem

Regio n 1 inc ludes : AR, IL, LA, MO, NM, OK, TX, WI, and Duluth, MN.

Regio n 2 inc ludes : CO, IA, KS, MN, NE, WY, and Kans as City and St. J o s eph, MO.

5Range is s ho wn becaus e average is no t ava ilable . No t ava ilable = n/a .

So urce : Trans po rta tio n & Marketing P ro gram/AMS/USDA.

UP4

Delivery period

BNSF3

For the week ending:

12/13/2018

Figure 3

Total Weekly U.S. Class I Railroad Grain Car Loadings

15,000

17,000

19,000

21,000

23,000

25,000

27,000

29,000

Car

lo

ads

Prior 3-year, 4-week average Current 4-week average

For the 4 weeks ending December 8, grain carloadings were up 2 percent from the previous week, down 1 percent from last year, and down 2 percent from the 3-year average.

Source: Association of American Railroads

December 20, 2018

Grain Transportation Report 7

The secondary rail market information reflects trade values for service that was originally purchased from the railroad carrier as some form of guaranteed freight. The auction and secondary rail values are indicators of rail service quality and demand/supply.

Figure 4

Bids/Offers for Railcars to be Delivered in December 2018, Secondary Market

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ar)

Shuttle Non-Shuttle

Shuttle prior 3-yr avg. (same week) Non-Shuttle prior 3-yr avg. (same week)12/13/2018

Non-shuttle bids include unit-train and single-car bids. n/a = not available.Source: Transportation & Marketing Program/AMS/USDA

n/a

UPBNSF

-$175

$0

-$350Shuttle

Non-Shuttle

Average Non-shuttle bids/offers rose $50 this week, and are $400 below the peak.

Average Shuttle bids/offers fell $147 this week and are $450 below the peak.

Figure 5

Bids/Offers for Railcars to be Delivered in January 2019, Secondary Market

-200

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Shuttle Non-Shuttle

Shuttle prior 3-yr avg. (same week) Non-Shuttle prior 3-yr avg. (same week)12/13/2018

Non-shuttle bids include unit-train and single-car bids. n/a = not available.Source: Transportation & Marketing Program/AMS/USDA

n/a

UPBNSF

$175

$125

$0Shuttle

Non-Shuttle

There were no Non-Shuttle bids/offers last week. Average Non-Shuttle bids/offers this week are at the peak.

Average Shuttle bids/offers fell $13 this week and are $413 below the peak.

December 20, 2018

Grain Transportation Report 8

Figure 6

Bids/Offers for Railcars to be Delivered in February 2019, Secondary Market

-200

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Shuttle Non-Shuttle

Shuttle prior 3-yr avg. (same week) Non-Shuttle prior 3-yr avg. (same week)12/13/2018

Non-shuttle bids include unit-train and single-car bids. n/a = not available.Source: Transportation & Marketing Program/AMS/USDA

n/a

UPBNSF

n/a

n/a

n/aShuttle

Non-Shuttle

There were no Non-Shuttle bids/offers this week.

There were no Shuttle bids/offers this week.

Table 6

Weekly Secondary Railcar Market ($/car)1

Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19

BNSF-GF n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Change from last week n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Change from same week 2017 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

UP-Pool 0 125 n/a n/a n/a n/a

Change from last week 0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Change from same week 2017 (100) 100 n/a n/a n/a n/a

BNSF-GF (175) 175 n/a n/a n/a n/a

Change from last week (150) (25) n/a n/a n/a n/a

Change from same week 2017 (58) 150 n/a n/a n/a n/a

UP-Pool (350) 0 n/a n/a n/a n/a

Change from last week (144) 0 n/a n/a n/a n/a

Change from same week 2017 (175) 200 n/a n/a n/a n/a

1Average premium/dis co unt to ta riff, $ /car-las t week

No te : Bids lis ted are market INDICATORS o nly & are NOT guaranteed prices ,

n/a = no t ava ilable ; GF = guaranteed fre ight; P o o l = guaranteed po o l

So urces : Trans po rta tio n and Marketing P ro gram/AMS/USDA

Data fro m J ames B. J o iner Co ., Tradewes t Bro kerage Co .

No

n-s

hu

ttle

For the week ending:

12/13/2018

Sh

utt

le

Delivery period

December 20, 2018

Grain Transportation Report 9

The tariff rail rate is the base price of freight rail service, and together with fuel surcharges and any auction and secondary rail values constitute the full cost of shipping by rail. Typically, auction and secondary rail values are a small fraction of the full cost of shipping by rail relative to the tariff rate. High auction and secondary rail values, during times of high rail demand or short supply, can exceed the cost of the tariff rate plus fuel surcharge.

Table 7

Tariff Rail Rates for Unit and Shuttle Train Shipments1

Percent

Tariff change

December, 2018 Origin region3

Destination region3

rate/car metric ton bushel2

Y/Y4

Unit train

Wheat Wichita, KS St. Louis, MO $3,983 $132 $40.86 $1.11 4

Grand Forks, ND Duluth-Superior, MN $4,268 $0 $42.38 $1.15 3

Wichita, KS Los Angeles, CA $7,175 $0 $71.25 $1.94 2

Wichita, KS New Orleans, LA $4,540 $231 $47.38 $1.29 2

Sioux Falls, SD Galveston-Houston, TX $6,911 $0 $68.63 $1.87 2

Northwest KS Galveston-Houston, TX $4,816 $254 $50.34 $1.37 2

Amarillo, TX Los Angeles, CA $5,121 $353 $54.36 $1.48 5

Corn Champaign-Urbana, IL New Orleans, LA $4,000 $262 $42.32 $1.07 5

Toledo, OH Raleigh, NC $6,581 $0 $65.35 $1.66 4

Des Moines, IA Davenport, IA $2,258 $55 $22.97 $0.58 1

Indianapolis, IN Atlanta, GA $5,646 $0 $56.07 $1.42 4

Indianapolis, IN Knoxville, TN $4,704 $0 $46.71 $1.19 4

Des Moines, IA Little Rock, AR $3,609 $163 $37.46 $0.95 2

Des Moines, IA Los Angeles, CA $5,327 $474 $57.61 $1.46 4

Soybeans Minneapolis, MN New Orleans, LA $4,131 $268 $43.68 $1.19 17

Toledo, OH Huntsville, AL $5,459 $0 $54.21 $1.48 3

Indianapolis, IN Raleigh, NC $6,698 $0 $66.51 $1.81 4

Indianapolis, IN Huntsville, AL $4,937 $0 $49.03 $1.33 4

Champaign-Urbana, IL New Orleans, LA $4,745 $262 $49.72 $1.35 2

Shuttle Train

Wheat Great Falls, MT Portland, OR $4,078 $0 $40.50 $1.10 3

Wichita, KS Galveston-Houston, TX $4,296 $0 $42.66 $1.16 3

Chicago, IL Albany, NY $5,896 $0 $58.55 $1.59 4

Grand Forks, ND Portland, OR $5,736 $0 $56.96 $1.55 2

Grand Forks, ND Galveston-Houston, TX $6,056 $0 $60.14 $1.64 2

Northwest KS Portland, OR $5,912 $416 $62.84 $1.71 5

Corn Minneapolis, MN Portland, OR $5,180 $0 $51.44 $1.31 4

Sioux Falls, SD Tacoma, WA $5,140 $0 $51.04 $1.30 4

Champaign-Urbana, IL New Orleans, LA $3,800 $262 $40.33 $1.02 5

Lincoln, NE Galveston-Houston, TX $3,880 $0 $38.53 $0.98 5

Des Moines, IA Amarillo, TX $4,060 $205 $42.35 $1.08 5

Minneapolis, MN Tacoma, WA $5,180 $0 $51.44 $1.31 4

Council Bluffs, IA Stockton, CA $5,000 $0 $49.65 $1.26 4

Soybeans Sioux Falls, SD Tacoma, WA $5,750 $0 $57.10 $1.55 3

Minneapolis, MN Portland, OR $5,800 $0 $57.60 $1.57 3

Fargo, ND Tacoma, WA $5,650 $0 $56.11 $1.53 3

Council Bluffs, IA New Orleans, LA $4,775 $302 $50.41 $1.37 3

Toledo, OH Huntsville, AL $4,634 $0 $46.02 $1.25 6

Grand Island, NE Portland, OR $5,710 $426 $60.93 $1.66 31A unit train refers to shipments of at least 25 cars. Shuttle train rates are generally available for qualified shipments of

75-120 cars that meet railroad efficiency requirements.

2Approximate load per car = 111 short tons (100.7 metric tons): corn 56 lbs./bu., wheat and soybeans 60 lbs./bu.

3Regional economic areas are defined by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

4Percentage change year over year calculated using tariff rate plus fuel surcharge

Sources: www.bnsf.com, www.cn.ca, www.csx.com, www.up.com

Tariff plus surcharge per:Fuel

surcharge

per car

December 20, 2018

Grain Transportation Report 10

Figure 7

Railroad Fuel Surcharges, North American Weighted Average1

$0.00

$0.10

$0.20

$0.30

$0.40

$0.50

$0.60

$0.70

Dollar

s p

er r

ailc

ar m

ile

3-Year Monthly Average

Fuel Surcharge* ($/mile/railcar)

December 2018: $0.2/mile, up 1 cent from last month's surcharge of $0.19/mile; up 11 cents from the December

2017 surcharge of $0.09/mile; and up 15 cents from the December prior 3-year average of $0.05/mile.

1 Weighted by each Class I railroad's proportion of grain traffic for the prior year. * Beginning January 2009, the Canadian Pacific fuel surcharge is computed by a monthly average of the bi-weekly fuel surcharge.**CSX strike price changed from $2.00/gal. to $3.75/gal. starting January 1, 2015.

Sources: www.bnsf.com, www.cn.ca, www.cpr.ca, www.csx.com, www.kcsi.com, www.nscorp.com, www.uprr.com

Table 8

Tariff Rail Rates for U.S. Bulk Grain Shipments to MexicoDate: Percent

Tariff change4

Commodity Destination region rate/car1

metric ton3

bushel3

Y/Y

Wheat MT Chihuahua, CI $7,284 $0 $74.43 $2.02 -2

OK Cuautitlan, EM $6,743 $181 $70.75 $1.92 3

KS Guadalajara, JA $7,371 $441 $79.82 $2.17 3

TX Salinas Victoria, NL $4,329 $110 $45.36 $1.23 2

Corn IA Guadalajara, JA $8,528 $407 $91.30 $2.32 4

SD Celaya, GJ $7,880 $0 $80.51 $2.04 2

NE Queretaro, QA $8,207 $377 $87.70 $2.23 4

SD Salinas Victoria, NL $6,905 $0 $70.55 $1.79 2

MO Tlalnepantla, EM $7,573 $367 $81.13 $2.06 5

SD Torreon, CU $7,480 $0 $76.43 $1.94 2

Soybeans MO Bojay (Tula), HG $8,284 $377 $88.49 $2.41 4

NE Guadalajara, JA $8,842 $411 $94.54 $2.57 3

IA El Castillo, JA $9,110 $0 $93.08 $2.53 2

KS Torreon, CU $7,714 $305 $81.93 $2.23 5

Sorghum NE Celaya, GJ $7,527 $377 $80.76 $2.05 4

KS Queretaro, QA $8,000 $226 $84.05 $2.13 4

NE Salinas Victoria, NL $6,633 $182 $69.62 $1.77 4

NE Torreon, CU $6,962 $292 $74.12 $1.88 41Rates are based upon published tariff rates for high-capacity shuttle trains. Shuttle trains are available for qualified

shipments of 75--110 cars that meet railroad efficiency requirements.2Fuel surcharge adjusted to reflect the change in Ferrocarril Mexicano, S.A. de C.V railroad fuel surcharge policy as of 10/01/20093Approximate load per car = 97.87 metric tons: Corn & Sorghum 56 lbs/bu, Wheat & Soybeans 60 lbs/bu4Percentage change calculated using tariff rate plus fuel surchage

Sources: www.bnsf.com, www.uprr.com, www.kcsouthern.com

Fuel

surcharge

per car2

Tariff plus surcharge per:Origin

state

December, 2018

December 20, 2018

Grain Transportation Report 11

Barge Transportation

Figure 9 Benchmark tariff rates Calculating barge rate per ton: (Rate * 1976 tariff benchmark rate per ton)/100

Select applicable index from market quotes included in tables on this page. The 1976 benchmark rates per ton are provided in map.

Twin Cities 6.19

Mid-Mississippi 5.32

St. Louis 3.99

Cairo-Memphis 3.14

Illinois 4.64 Cincinnati 4.69

Lower Ohio 4.04

Figure 8

Illinois River Barge Freight Rate1,2

1Rate = percent of 1976 tariff benchmark index (1976 = 100 percent);

24-week moving average of the 3-year average.

Source: Transportation & Marketing Program/AMS/USDA

0

200

400

600

800

1000

12001

2/1

9/1

7

01

/02

/18

01

/16

/18

01

/30

/18

02

/13

/18

02

/27

/18

03

/13

/18

03

/27

/18

04

/10

/18

04

/24

/18

05

/08

/18

05

/22

/18

06

/05

/18

06

/19

/18

07

/03

/18

07

/17

/18

07

/31

/18

08

/14

/18

08

/28

/18

09

/11

/18

09

/25

/18

10

/09

/18

10

/23

/18

11

/06

/18

11

/20

/18

12

/04

/18

12

/18

/18

Per

cen

t of

tar

iff Weekly rate

3-year avg. for

the week

For the week ending December 18: 9 percent higher than last week , 62 percent higher than last year, and 65 percent higher than the 3-year average.

Table 9

Weekly Barge Freight Rates: Southbound Only

Twin

Cities

Mid-

Mississippi

Lower

Illinois

River St. Louis Cincinnati

Lower

Ohio

Cairo-

Memphis

Rate1

12/18/2018 - - 450 300 400 400 270

12/11/2018 - - 413 340 300 300 280

$/ton 12/18/2018 - - 20.88 11.97 18.76 16.16 8.48

12/11/2018 - - 19.16 13.57 14.07 12.12 8.79

Current week % change from the same week:

Last year - - 62 35 49 49 47

3-year avg. 2

- - 65 55 67 70 58-2 6 6

Rate1

January - - 408 273 338 338 258

March - - 388 268 300 300 245

Source: Transportation & Marketing Programs/AMS/USDA

1Rate = percent of 1976 tariff benchmark index (1976 = 100 percent); 24-week moving average; ton = 2,000 pounds; "-" n/a due to closure

December 20, 2018

Grain Transportation Report 12

Figure 10

Barge Movements on the Mississippi River1 (Locks 27 - Granite City, IL)

1 The 3-year average is a 4-week moving average.

Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,20012

/16/1

7

12

/30/1

7

01

/13/1

8

01

/27/1

8

02

/10/1

8

02

/24/1

8

03

/10/1

8

03

/24/1

8

04

/07/1

8

04

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8

05

/05/1

8

05

/19/1

8

06

/02/1

8

06

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8

06

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8

07

/14/1

8

07

/28/1

8

08

/11/1

8

08

/25/1

8

09

/08/1

8

09

/22/1

8

10

/06/1

8

10

/20/1

8

11

/03/1

8

11

/17/1

8

12

/01/1

8

12

/15/1

8

12

/29/1

8

01

/12/1

9

1,0

00

to

ns

Soybeans

Wheat

Corn

3-Year Average

For the week ending December 15: Same as last year,and 25 percent less than the 3-yr avg.

Table 10

Barge Grain Movements (1,000 tons)

For the week ending 12/15/2018 Corn Wheat Soybeans Other Total

Mississippi River

Rock Island, IL (L15) 0 0 2 0 2

Winfield, MO (L25) 159 8 54 9 230

Alton, IL (L26) 366 11 125 12 515

Granite City, IL (L27) 374 14 136 14 539

Illinois River (L8) 203 0 56 0 260

Ohio River (OLMSTED) 118 15 130 0 263

Arkansas River (L1) 0 8 43 0 52

Weekly total - 2018 492 38 310 14 854

Weekly total - 2017 404 16 380 10 810

2018 YTD1

22,562 1,619 12,355 130 36,666

2017 YTD 21,618 2,139 15,580 353 39,690

2018 as % of 2017 YTD 104 76 79 37 92

Last 4 weeks as % of 20172

104 202 77 54 92

Total 2017 22,242 2,210 16,123 360 40,936

2 As a percent of same period in 2017.

2. Starting from 11/24/2018, weekly movement through Ohio 52 is replaced by Olmsted.

Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Note: 1. Total may not add exactly, due to rounding.

1 Weekly total, YTD (year-to-date) and calendar year total includes Miss/27, Ohio/52, and Ark/1; "Other" refers to oats, barley,

sorghum, and rye.

December 20, 2018

Grain Transportation Report 13

Figure 12

Grain Barges for Export in New Orleans Region

Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and GIPSA

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

8/2

6/1

7

9/9

/17

9/2

3/1

7

10

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7

10

/21

/17

11

/4/1

7

11

/18

/17

12

/2/1

7

12

/16

/17

12/3

0/1

7

1/1

3/1

8

1/2

7/1

8

2/1

0/1

8

2/2

4/1

8

3/1

0/1

8

3/2

4/1

8

4/7

/18

4/2

1/1

8

5/5

/18

5/1

9/1

8

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/18

6/1

6/1

8

6/3

0/1

8

7/1

4/1

8

7/2

8/1

8

8/1

1/1

8

8/2

5/1

8

9/8

/18

9/2

2/1

8

10

/6/1

8

10

/20

/18

11

/3/1

8

11

/17

/18

12

/1/1

8

12

/15

/18

Downbound Grain Barges Locks 27, 1, and Olmsted

Grain Barges Unloaded in New Orleans

Nu

mb

er o

f b

arges

For the week ending December 15: 550 grain barges moved down river, 47 barges more than last week; 816 grain barges were unloaded in New Orleans, 3 percent higher than the previous week.

Figure 11

Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Upbound Empty Barges Transiting Mississippi River Locks 27, Arkansas River

Lock and Dam 1, and Ohio River Olmsted Locks and Dam

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

8001

/27

/18

2/3

/18

2/1

0/1

8

2/1

7/1

8

2/2

4/1

8

3/3

/18

3/1

0/1

8

3/1

7/1

8

3/2

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8

3/3

1/1

8

4/7

/18

4/1

4/1

8

4/2

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8

4/2

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8

5/5

/18

5/1

2/1

8

5/1

9/1

8

5/2

6/1

8

6/2

/18

6/9

/18

6/1

6/1

8

6/2

3/1

8

6/3

0/1

8

7/7

/18

7/1

4/1

8

7/2

1/1

8

7/2

8/1

8

8/4

/18

8/1

1/1

8

8/1

8/1

8

8/2

5/1

8

9/1

/18

9/8

/18

9/1

5/1

8

9/2

2/1

8

9/2

9/1

8

10/

6/1

8

10/

13/

18

10/

20/

18

10/

27/

18

11/

3/1

8

11/

10/

18

11/

17/

18

11/

24/

18

12/

1/1

8

12/

8/1

8

12/

15/

18

Nu

mb

er o

f B

arg

es

Miss. Locks 27 Ark Lock 1 Ohio Olmsted Locks

For the week ending December 15: 557 barges transited the locks, 24 barges more than the previous week, and 18 percent lower than the 3-year avg.

December 20, 2018

Grain Transportation Report 14

The weekly diesel price provides a proxy for trends in U.S. truck rates as diesel fuel is a significant expense for truck grain move-

ments.

Truck Transportation

Table 11

Change from

Region Location Price Week ago Year ago

I East Coast 3.165 -0.029 0.268

New England 3.276 -0.019 0.352

Central Atlantic 3.342 -0.026 0.282

Lower Atlantic 3.021 -0.032 0.243

II Midwest 3.018 -0.048 0.165

III Gulf Coast 2.900 -0.034 0.203

IV Rocky Mountain 3.178 -0.061 0.220

V West Coast 3.604 -0.048 0.277

West Coast less California 3.313 -0.044 0.269

California 3.835 -0.052 0.283

Total U.S. 3.121 -0.040 0.220

1Diesel fuel prices include all taxes. Prices represent an average of all types of diesel fuel.

Source: Energy Information Administration/U.S. Department of Energy (www.eia.doe.gov)

Retail on-Highway Diesel Prices, Week Ending 12/17/2018 (US $/gallon)

Figure 13

Weekly Diesel Fuel Prices, U.S. Average

Source: Retail On-Highway Diesel Prices, Energy Information Administration, Dept. of Energy

$3.121$2.901

$2.000

$2.100

$2.200

$2.300

$2.400

$2.500

$2.600

$2.700

$2.800

$2.900

$3.000

$3.100

$3.200

$3.300

$3.400

$3.500

6/18

/201

8

6/25

/201

8

7/2/

2018

7/9/

2018

7/16

/201

8

7/23

/201

8

7/30

/201

8

8/6/

2018

8/13

/201

8

8/20

/201

8

8/27

/201

8

9/3/

2018

9/10

/201

8

9/17

/201

8

9/24

/201

8

10/1

/201

8

10/8

/201

8

10/1

5/20

18

10/2

2/20

18

10/2

9/20

18

11/5

/201

8

11/1

2/20

18

11/1

9/20

18

11/2

6/20

18

12/3

/201

8

12/1

0/20

18

12/1

7/20

18

$ p

er g

allo

n

Last Year Current YearFor the week ending December 17, the U.S. average diesel fuel price decreased 4.0 cents

from the previous week to $3.121 per gallon, 22.0 cents above the same week last year.

December 20, 2018

Grain Transportation Report 15

Grain Exports

Table 12

U.S. Export Balances and Cumulative Exports (1,000 metric tons)

Wheat Corn Soybeans Total

For the week ending HRW SRW HRS SWW DUR All wheat

Export Balances1

12/6/2018 1,801 888 1,845 1,114 140 5,789 11,930 10,626 28,346

This week year ago 2,146 560 1,706 1,267 59 5,738 14,989 13,493 34,220

Cumulative exports-marketing year 2

2018/19 YTD 3,146 1,221 3,269 2,667 266 10,568 15,721 14,314 40,603

2017/18 YTD 5,024 1,112 3,227 2,764 211 12,337 8,777 24,161 45,276

YTD 2018/19 as % of 2017/18 63 110 101 97 126 86 179 59 90

Last 4 wks as % of same period 2017/18 72 137 108 90 254 95 79 83 83

2017/18 Total 9,150 2,343 5,689 4,854 384 22,419 57,209 56,214 135,842

2016/17 Total 11,096 2,285 7,923 4,254 484 26,042 41,864 51,156 119,0621 Current unshipped (outstanding) export sales to date

2 Shipped export sales to date; new marketing year now in effect for corn, soybeans, and wheat

Note: YTD = year-to-date. Marketing Year: wheat = 6/01-5/31, corn & soybeans = 9/01-8/31

Source: Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA (www.fas.usda.gov)

Table 13

Top 5 Importers 1 of U.S. Corn

For the week ending 12/06/2018 % change Exports3

2018/19 2017/18 current MY 3-year avg

Current MY Last MY from last MY 2015-2017

Mexico 8,730 8,947 (2) 13,691

Japan 5,386 3,952 36 11,247

Korea 2,219 1,015 119 4,754

Colombia 1,699 1,675 1 4,678

Peru 1,235 1,442 (14) 2,975

Top 5 Importers 19,268 17,031 13 37,344

Total US corn export sales 27,651 23,766 16 53,184

% of Projected 44% 38%

Change from prior week2

903 867

Top 5 importers' share of U.S. corn

export sales 70% 72% 70%

USDA forecast, December 2018 62,341 62,036 0

Corn Use for Ethanol USDA forecast,

December 2018 142,240 142,367 (0)

1Based on FAS Marketing Year Ranking Reports for 2017/18 - www.fas.usda.gov; Marketing year (MY) = Sep 1 - Aug 31.

Total Commitments2

- 1,000 mt -

3FAS Marketing Year Ranking Reports - http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/myrkaug.htm; 3-yr average

2Cumulative Exports (shipped) + Outstanding Sales (unshipped), FAS Weekly Export Sales Report, or Export Sales Query--

http://www.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/. Total commitments change (net sales) from prior week could include revisions from previous

week's outstanding sales or accumulated sales.

(n) indicates negative number.

December 20, 2018

Grain Transportation Report 16

Table 14

Top 5 Importers1 of U.S. Soybeans

For the week ending 12/06/2018 % change

Exports3

2018/19 2017/18 current MY 3-yr avg.

Current MY Last MY from last MY 2015-2017

- 1,000 mt - - 1,000 mt -

China 524 21,529 (98) 31,228

Mexico 3,420 1,924 78 3,716

Indonesia 833 713 17 2,250

Japan 1,180 1,121 5 2,145

Netherlands 1,131 586 93 2,209

Top 5 importers 7,087 25,874 (73) 41,549

Total US soybean export sales 24,941 37,654 (34) 55,113

% of Projected 48% 65%

Change from prior week2

792 1,382

Top 5 importers' share of U.S.

soybean export sales 28% 69% 75%

USDA forecast, December 2018 51,771 58,011 89

1Bas ed o n FAS Marketing Year Ranking Repo rts fo r 2017/18 - www.fas .us da .go v; Marketing year (MY) = Sep 1 - Aug 31.

3 FAS Marketing Year Fina l Repo rts - www.fas .us da .go v/expo rt-s a les /myfi_rpt.htm. (Carryo ver plus Accumula ted Expo rts )

(n) indicates negative number.

2Cumula tive Expo rts (s hipped) + Outs tanding Sales (uns hipped), FAS Weekly Expo rt Sa les Repo rt, o r Expo rt Sa les Query--

http://www.fas .us da .go v/es rquery/. The to ta l co mmitments change (ne t s a les ) fro m prio r week co uld inc lude re ivis io ns fro m previo us week's

o uts tanding s a les and/o r accumula ted s a les

Total Commitments2

Table 15

Top 10 Importers1 of All U.S. Wheat

For the week ending 12/06/2018 % change Exports3

2018/19 2017/18 current MY 3-yr avg

Current MY Last MY from last MY 2015-2017

- 1,000 mt -

Mexico 2,003 2,205 (9) 2,781

Japan 1,949 2,006 (3) 2,649

Philippines 2,269 2,070 10 2,441

Korea 1,104 1,224 (10) 1,257

Nigeria 840 809 4 1,254

Indonesia 626 856 (27) 1,076

Taiwan 702 852 (18) 1,066

China 0 782 (100) 944

Colombia 427 221 93 714

Thailand 754 537 40 618

Top 10 importers 10,673 11,561 (8) 14,800

Total US wheat export sales 16,357 18,075 (10) 22,869

% of Projected 60% 74%

Change from prior week2

754 589

Top 10 importers' share of U.S.

wheat export sales 65% 64% 65%

USDA forecast, December 2018 27,248 24,550 11

1 Based on FAS Marketing Year Ranking Reports for 2017/18 - www.fas.usda.gov; Marketing year = Jun 1 - May 31.

outstanding and/or accumulated sales

Total Commitments2

3 FAS Marketing Year Final Reports - www.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/myfi_rpt.htm.

(n) indicates negative number.

2 Cumulative Exports (shipped) + Outstanding Sales (unshipped), FAS Weekly Export Sales Report, or Export Sales Query--

http://www.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/. Total commitments change (net sales) from prior week could include revisions from the previous week's

- 1,000 mt -

December 20, 2018

Grain Transportation Report 17

The United States exports approximately one-quarter of the grain it produces. On average, this includes nearly 45 percent of U.S.-grown wheat, 50 percent of U.S.-grown soybeans, and 20 percent of the U.S.-grown corn. Approximately 55 percent of the U.S. export grain ship-ments departed through the U.S. Gulf region in 2017.

Table 16

Grain Inspections for Export by U.S. Port Region (1,000 metric tons)

For the Week Ending Previous Current Week 2018 YTD as

12/13/18 Week* as % of Previous 2017 YTD* % of 2017 YTD Last Year Prior 3-yr. avg.

Pacific Northwest

Wheat 389 286 136 12,685 14,332 89 99 133 14,805

Corn 272 179 152 19,381 10,480 185 536 318 10,928

Soybeans 83 135 61 7,719 12,704 61 10 11 13,246

Total 744 600 124 39,785 37,517 106 73 80 38,978

Mississippi Gulf

Wheat 97 64 152 3,764 4,122 91 143 115 4,198

Corn 466 541 86 32,717 28,083 117 131 126 28,690

Soybeans 794 621 128 26,987 31,280 86 82 72 32,911

Total 1,357 1,225 111 63,468 63,485 100 98 88 65,800

Texas Gulf

Wheat 146 0 n/a 3,001 6,143 49 103 76 6,354

Corn 0 29 0 730 733 100 87 44 733

Soybeans 0 0 n/a 69 292 23 0 0 292

Total 146 29 506 3,800 7,168 53 79 50 7,379

Interior

Wheat 39 60 64 1,586 1,676 95 119 151 1,727

Corn 131 112 117 8,437 8,532 99 88 111 8,758

Soybeans 94 104 91 6,516 5,308 123 97 115 5,508

Total 264 277 95 16,539 15,516 107 94 117 15,993

Great Lakes

Wheat 48 63 77 872 686 127 162 134 711

Corn 0 0 n/a 404 192 210 0 0 192

Soybeans 0 20 0 1,172 847 138 200 121 890

Total 48 82 58 2,448 1,724 142 176 116 1,793

Atlantic

Wheat 0 0 n/a 69 46 149 0 0 46

Corn 0 0 n/a 133 32 412 101 241 32

Soybeans 55 52 106 1,992 1,867 107 85 73 2,001

Total 55 52 106 2,194 1,946 113 85 71 2,079

U.S. total from ports*

Wheat 718 473 152 21,977 27,005 81 109 119 27,841

Corn 869 861 101 61,803 48,052 129 154 147 49,333

Soybeans 1,026 931 110 44,454 52,298 85 62 57 54,847

Total 2,613 2,265 115 128,234 127,355 101 90 87 132,021

*Data includes revisions from prior weeks; some regional totals may not add exactly due to rounding.

Source: Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration/USDA (www.gipsa.usda.gov); YTD= year-to-date; n/a = not applicable

Last 4-weeks as % of:

Port Regions 2017 Total*2018 YTD*

December 20, 2018

Grain Transportation Report 18

Figure 14

U.S. grain inspected for export (wheat, corn, and soybeans)

Source: Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration/USDA (www.gipsa.usda.gov)

Note: 3-year average consists of 4-week running average

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2005/1

8/2

017

6/1

5/2

017

7/1

3/2

017

8/1

0/2

017

9/7

/201

7

10

/5/2

017

11

/2/2

017

11

/30/2

017

12

/28/2

017

1/2

5/2

018

2/2

2/2

018

3/2

2/2

018

4/1

9/2

018

5/1

7/2

018

6/1

4/2

018

7/1

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018

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/201

8

9/6

/201

8

10

/4/2

018

11

/1/2

018

11

/29/2

018

12

/27/2

018

1/2

4/2

019

2/2

1/2

019

3/2

1/2

019

4/1

8/2

019

Mil

lion

bu

shels

(m

bu

)

Current week 3-year average

For the week ending Dec. 13: 98.3 mbu, up 15 percent from the previous week, down 17 percent from same week last year, and down 10 percent from the 3-year average.

Figure 15

U.S. Grain Inspections: U.S. Gulf and PNW1 (wheat, corn, and soybeans)

-

10

20

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60

70

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90

100

4/2

7/1

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/27/1

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Mil

lion

bu

shels

(m

bu

)

Miss. Gulf 3-Year avg - Miss. Gulf

PNW 3-Year avg - PNW

Texas Gulf 3-Year avg - TX Gulf

Source: Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration/USDA (www.gipsa.usda.gov)

Last Week:

Last Year (same week):

3-yr avg. (4-wk. mov. Avg):

MS Gulf TX Gulf U.S. Gulf PNW

up 10

down 11

down 14

up 373

down 8

up 7

up 19

down 11

down 12

up 25

down 22

down 6

Percent change from:Week ending 12/13/18 inspections (mbu):

Mississippi Gulf:

PNW:

Texas Gulf:

51.1

28.0

5.4

December 20, 2018

Grain Transportation Report 19

Ocean Transportation

Table 17

Weekly Port Region Grain Ocean Vessel Activity (number of vessels)

Pacific

Gulf Northwest

Loaded Due next

Date In port 7-days 10-days In port

12/13/2018 23 33 66 15

12/6/2018 26 31 64 18

2017 range (25..66) (28..54) (37..87) (5..44)

2017 avg. 46 38 56 20

Source: Transportation & Marketing Programs/AMS/USDA

Figure 16

U.S. Gulf Vessel Loading Activity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

07

/26

/20

18

08

/02

/20

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08

/09

/20

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08

/16

/20

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08

/23

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08

/30

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09

/06

/20

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/20

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/27

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/04

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/18

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/25

/20

18

11

/01

/20

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/08

/20

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11

/15

/20

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/22

/20

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11

/29

/20

18

12

/06

/20

18

12

/13

/20

18

Nu

mb

er

of

ve

ssel

s

Loaded Last 7 Days Due Next 10 days Loaded 4 Year Average

Source:Transportation & Marketing Program/AMS/USDA1U.S. Gulf includes Mississippi, Texas, and East Gulf.

For the week ending December 13 Loaded Due Change from last year -32.4% 22.2%

Change from 4-year avg. -42.5% 0.8%

December 20, 2018

Grain Transportation Report 20

Figure 17

Grain Vessel Rates, U.S. to Japan

Data Source: O'Neil Commodity Consulting

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Nov

. 16

Jan.

17

Mar

. 17

May

17

July

17

Sept

. 17

Nov

. 17

Jan.

18

Mar

. 18

May

18

July

18

Sept

. 18

Nov

. 18

US

$/m

etri

c to

n

Spread Gulf vs. PNW to Japan Rate Gulf to Japan Rate PNW to Japan

Gulf PNW Spread Ocean rates November '18 $48.38 $26.81 $21.56 Change from November '17 12.2% 9.7% 15.4%

Change from 4-year avg. 27.6% 27.7% 27.5%

Table 18

Ocean Freight Rates For Selected Shipments, Week Ending 12/15/2018

Export Import Grain Loading Volume loads Freight rate

region region types date (metric tons) (US$/metric ton)

U.S. Gulf Djibouti Wheat Dec 27/Jan 7 9,800 113.11*

U.S. Gulf Pt. Sudan Sorghum Dec 7/17 30,430 71.88*

U.S. Gulf Djibouti Wheat Nov 2/12 21,470 85.44*

U.S. Gulf Djibouti Wheat Oct 1/15 25,340 77.65*

U.S. Gulf Honduras Soybean Meal Oct 1/10 12,500 85.00*

PNW Taiwan Heavy Grain Sep 15/Oct 31 63,000 25.00

Brazil China Heavy Grain Dec 15/20 60,000 37.50

Brazil China Heavy Grain Dec 1/10 60,000 36.25

Brazil China Heavy Grain Nov 20/30 60,000 38.00

Brazil China Heavy Grain Nov 1/10 60,000 34.00

Brazil China Heavy Grain Oct 5/15 60,000 33.75

Brazil China Heavy Grain Sep 25/30 60,000 34.50

Brazil China Heavy Grain Sep 10/20 60,000 35.75

Brazil China Heavy Grain Aug 21/30 60,000 36.00

Brazil China Heavy Grain Aug 18/28 60,000 36.00

Brazil Malaysia Heavy Grain Aug 17/24 65,000 31.00

Brazil S.Korea Heavy Grain Nov 5/10 66,000 43.00

Rates shown are per metric ton (2,204.62 lbs. = 1 metric ton), F.O.B., except where otherwise indicated; op = option *50 percent of food aid from the United States is required to be shipped on U.S.-flag vessels.

Source: Maritime Research Inc. (www.maritime-research.com)

December 20, 2018

Grain Transportation Report 21

In 2017, containers were used to transport 7 percent of total U.S. waterborne grain exports. Approximately 62 percent of U.S. wa-terborne grain exports in 2017 went to Asia, of which 10 percent were moved in containers. Approximately 93 percent of U.S. wa-terborne containerized grain exports were destined for Asia.

Figure 18

Top 10 Destination Markets for U.S. Containerized Grain Exports, January-May 2018

Source: USDA/Agricultural Marketing Service/Transportation Services Division analysis of Port Import Export Reporting

Service (PIERS) data

Note: The following Harmonized Tariff Codes are used to calculate containerized grains movements: 100190, 100200,

100300, 100400, 100590, 100700, 110100, 230310, 110220, 110290, 120100, 230210, 230990, 230330, and 120810.

Taiwan19%

Vietnam

17%

Thailand13%

Indonesia11%

China8%

Korea7%

Japan4%

Malaysia

4%

Philipplines2%

Sri Lanka2%

Other13%

Figure 19

Monthly Shipments of Containerized Grain to Asia

Source: USDA/Agricultural Marketing Service/Transportation Services Division analysis of Port Import Export Reporting Service (PIERS) data.

Note: The following Harmonized Tariff Codes are used to calculate containerized grains movements: 100190, 100200, 100300, 100400, 100590,

100700, 110100, 110220, 110290, 120100, 120810, 230210, 230310, 230330, and 230990.

0

5

10

15

20

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30

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55

60

65

70

75

80

Jan.

Feb

.

Mar

.

Ap

r.

May

Jun

.

Jul.

Aug.

Sep

.

Oct

.

Nov.

Dec

.

Th

ou

san

d

20

-ft

equ

ivale

nt

un

its

2017

2018

5-year avg

May 2018: Down 63% from last year and 68% lower than

the 5-year average

December 20, 2018

Grain Transportation Report 22

Coordinators Surajudeen (Deen) Olowolayemo surajudeen.olowolayemo@ams.usda.gov (202) 720 - 0119 Pierre Bahizi pierre.bahizi@ams.usda.gov (202) 690 - 0992 Adam Sparger adam.sparger@ams.usda.gov (202) 205 - 8701

Weekly Highlight Editors Surajudeen (Deen) Olowolayemo surajudeen.olowolayemo@ams.usda.gov (202) 720 - 0119 April Taylor april.taylor@ams.usda.gov (202) 720 - 7880 Nicholas Marathon nick.marathon@ams.usda.gov (202) 690 - 4430

Grain Transportation Indicators Surajudeen (Deen) Olowolayemo surajudeen.olowolayemo@ams.usda.gov (202) 720 - 0119

Rail Transportation Adam Sparger adam.sparger@ams.usda.gov (202) 205 - 8701 Johnny Hill johnny.hill@ams.usda.gov (202) 690 - 3295 Jesse Gastelle jesse.gastelle@ams.usda.gov (202) 690 - 1144 Peter Caffarelli petera.caffarelli@ams.usda.gov (202) 690 - 3244

Barge Transportation Nicholas Marathon nick.marathon@ams.usda.gov (202) 690 - 4430 April Taylor april.taylor@ams.usda.gov (202) 720 - 7880 Matt Chang matt.chang@ams.usda.gov (202) 720 - 0299

Truck Transportation April Taylor april.taylor@ams.usda.gov (202) 720 - 7880

Grain Exports Johnny Hill johnny.hill@ams.usda.gov (202) 690 - 3295 Ocean Transportation Surajudeen (Deen) Olowolayemo surajudeen.olowolayemo@ams.usda.gov (202) 720 - 0119 (Freight rates and vessels) April Taylor april.taylor@ams.usda.gov (202) 720 - 7880 (Container movements)

Subscription Information: Send relevant information to GTRContactUs@ams.usda.gov for an electronic copy (printed copies are also available upon request).

Preferred citation: U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service. Grain Transportation Report. December 20, 2018. Web: http://dx.doi.org/10.9752/TS056.12-20-2018

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