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NorthwestPower andConservation
Council
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council
Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan
Interim Wholesale Electricity Price and Carbon Dioxide Production
ForecastsMaury Galbraith
Northwest Power and Conservation CouncilPortland, ORJuly 17, 2008
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council2April 29, 2008 2
AURORAxmp Electric Market Model Configuration and Inputs1. 18 load-resource zones with transmission 2. Demand forecasts (net conservation)3. Existing generating resources4. New generating resource options5. Natural gas and coal price forecasts6. CO2 emission price forecasts7. State restrictions on new coal-fired generation8. Resource additions needed to achieve state RPS targets9. Capacity planning reserve margin targets
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council3April 29, 2008 3
AURORAxmp Electric Market ModelModes and Logic
1. Capacity Expansion Mode: • Selects optimal mix of resource additions for meeting future
demand• Planning Period: 2007 – 2031• Simulation: Every 3rd Hour; M, W, F, Sun; Every 2nd Week
2. Hourly Dispatch Mode: • Determines hourly market-clearing wholesale power prices• Planning Period: 2007 – 2026• Simulation: Every Hour; Every Day; Every Week
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council4April 29, 2008
Revised Natural Gas PricesPNW West
$0$1$2$3$4$5$6$7$8$9
$10
2007 2012 2017 2022
2006
$/M
MB
tu
Interim Forecast --High Case
Interim Forecast --Base Case
5th Power Plan --Medium
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council5April 29, 2008
CO2 Emission Prices
$0$5
$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45
2007 2012 2017 2022
2006
$/to
n of
CO
2
Interim Forecast -High Case
Interim Forecast -Base Case
5th Power Plan -Mean Values
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council6April 29, 2008
RPS ModelingSummary of Standard Assumed allocation of new acquisitions
(Energy basis)AZ IOU sales: Annual increments to 15% by 2025
30% min distributed resources.31% load-side; 7% biomass; 27% solar; 34% wind
BC Renewables will continue to account for 90% of generation
20% biomass; 40% hydro; 40% wind
CA IOU sales: 1% min/yr to 20% by 2011COUs: “recognize legislative intent”
10% biomass; 15% geothermal; 25% solar; 50% wind
CO IOU sales: Scheduled increments to 20% by 2020COU sales: Scheduled increments to 10% by 2020
5% solar; 95% wind
MT IOU sales: Scheduled increments to 15% by 2015 25% biomass; 75% wind
NM IOU sales: Scheduled increments to 20% by 2020COU sales: Scheduled increments to 10% by 2020
15% biomass; 15% geothermal; 20% solar; 50% wind
NV IOU sales: Scheduled increments to 20% by 20155% min solar; 105% credit for conservation to limit
27% conservation; 36% geothermal; 18% solar; 18% wind
OR Large utility sales: Scheduled increments to 25% by 2025. (Medium utilities 10%; small 5% by 2025)
20% biomass; 10% geothermal; 5% solar; 65% wind
WA Sales of large utilities (17/~ 84% load): Scheduled increments to 20% by 2020.
20% biomass; 5% hydro; 75% wind
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council7April 29, 2008
New Resource Overnight Capital Cost Assumptions (2006$/kW)
Fifth Power Plan
Biennial Assessment
High Capital
Cost CaseGas turbines (aeroderivative) $680 $680 $840
Gas turbines (frame) $420 $420 $520
Combined-cycle $590 $590 $730
Pulverized coal-steam $1,450 $1,450 $1,900
Integrated gasification combined-cycle (without CS)
$1,620 $1,750 $2,100
Integrated gasification combined-cycle (with 90% CS)
$2,090 $2,300 $2,700
Solar photovoltaics $4,920 $3,288 $5,820
Wind power $910 $1,500 $1,650
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council8April 29, 2008 8
Interim Base CaseWECC Resource Expansion 2007-26
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
20072011
20152019
2023
Dis
patc
hed
Ener
gy (M
Wa)
AURORA NG SCCT
AURORA Solar
AURORA IGCC w\ Seq
AURORA IGCC wo\ Seq
AURORA Steam Coal
AURORA NG CCCT
AURORA Wind
RPS
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council9April 29, 2008 9
Interim High Capital Cost CaseWECC Resource Expansion 2007-26
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
20072011
20152019
2023
Dis
patc
hed
Ener
gy (M
Wa) AURORA NG SCCT
AURORA IGCC wo\ Seq
AURORA NG CCCT
AURORA Wind
RPS
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council10April 29, 2008 10
Interim High Capital Cost Case PNW Resource Expansion 2007-26
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
20072011
20152019
2023
Dis
patc
hed
Ener
gy (M
Wa) RPS Hydro
RPS Solar
RPS Geothermal
RPS Biomass
RPS Wind
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council11April 29, 2008
Base Case Price ComparisonsMid-C Annual Average Prices
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
$55
$60
$65
2007 2012 2017 2022
2006
$/M
Wh
5th Plan Final
Biennial Assessment
Draft Interim Base Case
Final Interim Base Case
Interim High Capital CostCase
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council12April 29, 2008
Sensitivity Case Price ComparisonsMid-C Annual Average Prices
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
$55
$60
$65
2007 2012 2017 2022
2006
$/M
Wh
Interim Base Case
Interim High Capital CostCase
Interim High CO2 PriceCase
High Capital Cost/HighCO2 Price Case
Interim High Fuel PriceCase
Interim No IncrementalRPS Case
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council13April 29, 2008 13
Impact of Incremental RPS Resource Additions on NW Wholesale Power Market Price(e.g., Interim High Capital Cost Case: Jan. 15, 2020 HE 7:00 P.M.)
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
350.00
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000
Cumulative Capability (MW)
Dis
patc
h C
ost (
nom
inal
$/M
Wh) Hydro
Nuclear
Wind
Coal/Biomass
NG CCCT/Biogas
NG SCCT/Fuel Oil/Demand Response
Demand
Without Incremental RPS
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council14April 29, 2008
Sensitivity Case CO2 ProductionWECC Annual Emissions
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
2007 2012 2017 2022
Mill
ion
Tons
Interim Base Case
Interim High Fuel PriceCase
Interim High CO2 PriceCase
Interim No IncrementalRPS CaseInterim High Capital CostCase
High Capital Cost/HighCO2 Price Case
5th Plan Portfolio
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council15April 29, 2008
Sensitivity Case CO2 ProductionNW Annual Emissions
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
2007 2012 2017 2022
Mill
ion
Tons
Interim Base Case
Interim High CapitalCost Case
High Capital Cost/HighCO2 Price Case
Est. 1990 Level
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council16April 29, 2008 16
Impact of High CO2 Prices on NW Supply(e.g., Interim High Capital Cost Case: Jan. 15, 2020 HE 7:00 P.M.)
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
350.00
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000Cumulative Capability (MW)
Dis
patc
h C
osts
(nom
inal
$/M
Wh)
with Base CO2 Prices
with High CO2 Prices
Demand
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council17April 29, 2008
Interim Wholesale Power Price Forecast Paper
http://www.nwcouncil.org/library/2008/2008-05.htm