Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Draft Wholesale Power Price Forecasts
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Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Draft Wholesale Power Price Forecasts Maury Galbraith Northwest Power and Conservation Council Generating Resource Advisory Committee Meeting Portland, OR January 22, 2009 Northwest Power and Conservation Council
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Northwest Power and Conservation Council. Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Draft Wholesale Power Price Forecasts. Maury Galbraith Northwest Power and Conservation Council Generating Resource Advisory Committee Meeting Portland, OR January 22, 2009. Outline. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Draft Wholesale Power Price Forecasts
Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan
Draft Wholesale Power Price Forecasts
Maury Galbraith
Northwest Power and Conservation CouncilGenerating Resource Advisory Committee Meeting
Portland, ORJanuary 22, 2009
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
2Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Outline
1. Recap of Major AURORA Updates
2. Update of Regional Portfolio Standard (RPS) Resource Development
3. Partial Update of New Generating Resource Options
4. Forecast Wholesale Power Market Prices
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Major AURORA Updates
Reduction in the number of load-resource zones used to model the Western Interconnect
Updated transmission links between the modeled load-resource zones Updated demand forecasts for each of the load-resource zones Updated fuel price forecasts for each of the zones Updated hydro condition modeling for the Northwest zones Updated inventory of existing generating resources in each of the
zones Updated estimates of future Regional Portfolio Standard
resource development by zone Updated inventory of candidate resources for future development
by zone Improved dispatch parameter for combined cycle combustion
turbines Updated carbon dioxide price forecasts
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Higher Natural Gas PricesMedium Long-term Trend Forecasts for PNW Zones
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Draft 6th Plan - PNW Westside
Draft 6th Plan - PNW Eastside
Interim Forecast - PNW Westside
Interim Forecast - PNW Eastside
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Carbon Dioxide Emission PricesAll Zones
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Interim Base Case
High CO2 Price Case
5th Plan Average CO2 Prices
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WECC Load & Resource Balance – EnergyEconomic Dispatch Basis Under Average Hydro Conditions
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20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
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2030
An
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Av
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En
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MW
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Demand Curtailment
New AURORA Resources
RPS Resources
Existing Resources
Requirements
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PNW Load & Resource Balance – EnergyEconomic Dispatch Basis Under Average Hydro Conditions
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5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2008
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An
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En
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Demand Curtailment
Imports
New AURORA Resources
RPS Resources
Existing Resources
Requirements
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Incremental RPS Energy by State
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En
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OR
NV
NM
MT
CO
CA
BC
AZ
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CA Incremental RPS Energy Mix
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1,000
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6,000
7,000
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2028
2030
En
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MW
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PV
WND
HYD
GEO
CSP
BIO
Target First Achieved in 2015
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WA Incremental RPS Energy Mix
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1,200
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En
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PV
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HYD
GEO
CSP
BIO
Full Target Achievement
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OR Incremental RPS Energy Mix
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GEO
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BIO
Full Target Achievement
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MT Incremental RPS Energy Mix
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PV
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HYD
GEO
CSP
BIO
Full Target Achievement
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WECC New AURORA Resource Energy by Technology
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10,000
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30,000
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NR 500 MW Wind - MT to PNW
NR 100 MW Wind - Local
NR 2x45 Aero GT
NR 415 MW Adv CC
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PNW New AURORA Resource Energy by Technology
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NR 500 MW Wind - MT to PNW
NR 100 MW Wind - Local
NR 2x45 Aero GT
NR 415 MW Adv CC
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Energy SummaryPreliminary Results – More Resources Options in Future Runs
• “Forced” Incremental RPS Resources Additions– WECC: 12,500 MWa by 2030
– PNW: 2,070 MWa by 2030
– RPS Resource Technologies Vary by State
– CA Begins to Achieve Targets in 2015
– MT, OR, and WA Achieve All RPS Targets
• “Simulated” New AURORA Resource Additions– WECC: 25,000 MWa by 2030
– PNW: 2,430 MWa by 2030
– PNW Additions begin in 2029
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WECC Load & Resource Balance – CapacitySustained Peaking Capability
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New AURORA Resources
RPS Resources
Existing Resources
Peak Hour Demand
Reserve Margin Target
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PNW Load & Resource Balance – CapacitySustained Peaking Capability
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10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
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60,000
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New AURORA Resources
RPS Resources
Existing Resources
Peak Hour Demand
Reserve Margin Target
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WECC Incremental RPS Capacity and Peak Contribution
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5,000
10,000
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35,000
40,000
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Capacity
Peak Contribution
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WECC New AURORA Resource Capacity by Technology
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NR 500 MW Wind - MT to PNW
NR 100 MW Wind - Local
NR 2x45 Aero GT
NR 415 MW Adv CC
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WECC New AURORA Resource Peak Contribution by Technology
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10,000
20,000
30,000
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70,000
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Pe
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NR 500 MW Wind - MT to PNW
NR 100 MW Wind - Local
NR 2x45 Aero GT
NR 415 MW Adv CC
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PNW New AURORA Resource Capacity by Technology
0
1,000
2,000
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4,000
5,000
6,000
2008
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2018
2020
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NR 500 MW Wind - MT to PNW
NR 100 MW Wind - Local
NR 2x45 Aero GT
NR 415 MW Adv CC
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PNW Total RPS and New AURORA Resource Capacity
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2,000
4,000
6,000
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14,000
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Natural Gas
Other Renewable
Wind
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Capacity SummaryPreliminary Results – More Resources Options in Future Runs
• “Forced” Incremental RPS Resources Additions– WECC: 37,800 MW by 2030
– PNW: 6,370 MW by 2030
– 30% Average Contribution to Meeting Planning Reserve Margin
• “Simulated” New AURORA Resource Additions– WECC: 61,640 MW by 2030
– PNW: 5,590 MW by 2030
– PNW Additions begin in 2029
– 70% Average Contribution to Meeting Planning Reserve Margin
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Historic Mid-C Average Monthly On- and Off-Peak Prices Source: IntercontinentalExchange (ICE)
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$60.00/MWh
$45.20/MWh $50.00/MWh $56.00/MWh
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Forecast Mid-C Average Monthly On- and Off- Peak Prices AO_6P_11112008_NEWRES_HD
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Impact of AURORA Updates on Mid-CWholesale Power Price Forecast
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Interim Price Forecast
Updated Demand/ Fuel
Updated RPS
Updated New Resources
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Next Steps
Updated transmission links between the modeled load-resource zones
Updated hydro condition modeling for the Northwest zones
Improved dispatch parameter for combined cycle combustion turbines
Updated carbon dioxide price forecasts
