SITUATION TAJIKISTAN ANALYSIS -...
Transcript of SITUATION TAJIKISTAN ANALYSIS -...
SITUATION OVERVIEWAn earthquake with a magnitude of 7.21 occurred in Rush-on district of Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast in Tajikistan, at 07:50 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), or 12:50 Tajikistan Local Time on 7 December, 2015.
The earthquake’s epicenter was located 109 kilometers (68 miles) west of Murghob, 133 kilometers (83 miles) northeast of Khorugh and 349 kilometers (217 miles) east of Dushanbe in Tajikistan.
So far 14 aftershocks2 have been recorded on Monday 7 December and Tuesday 8 December, including 13 in Tajikistan, ranging from 4.5 to 5.4 magnitude on Richter scale. One aftershock has been recorded in Krygyzstan, of 5.5 M, which was centered 29 kilometers (18 miles) south-southeast of Chayek at 08:30 UTC.
The location of the 7.2 M earthquake is approximately 10-20 km from Sarez Lake and Usoi Dam in Tajikistan. Af-ter this earthquake, four aftershocks have been recorded near the lake.
The Usoi dam was formed by an earthquake in 1911. Ac-cording to a report by the United Nations Office for Dis-aster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), the dam is unstable and poses a potential risk in the event of earthquakes. The four aftershocks in the immediate area indicate a risk of an outburst of the Usoi dam and subsequent flooding of lake Sarez.
Several unconfirmed reports indicate damages to house-holds in the communities living near the epicenter. Ac-cording to the Government of Tajikistan, at least two per-son were trapped and killed under rock-falls.
1 USGS M7.2 - 105km W of Murghob, Tajikistan2 USGS 7 December 2015 Earthquake Summary 3 United Nations report on Usoi landslide dam and Sarez Lake
SITUATIONANALYSISInitial Report - 8 December 2015
TAJIKISTAN EARTHQUAKE 7 DECEMBER 2015
Not Felt
Minor
SmallModerateStrongMajorGreat8.9
Damages Begin Fatalities Rare
Great Devastation Many Fatalities Possible
8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0
2.0
0.0
Largest Recorded
E�ects may vary greatly due to construction practices, population density,soil depth, focal depth etc.
RICHTER SCALE
TAJIKISTAN EARTHQUAKES 7 DECEMBER
Time
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
07:50
08:24
08:30
08:55
09:24
10:04
10:34
11:48
13:50
13:51
14:27
15:23
17:51
18:54
Richter Scale
7.24.8
5.5
5.4
4.9
4.8
4.5
Khorugh
Khujand
Qurghonteppa
PAKISTANAFGHANISTAN
CHINA
KYRGYZSTANUZBEKISTAN
INDIA
GORNO-BADAKHSHAN
DISTRICTS OF REPUBLICAN SUBORDINATION
SUGHD
KHATLON
Dushanbe7.2 M
07.12.2015 07:50 UTC
Sarez Lake
Major EarthquakeAftershocks
4.9 M
4.8 M 5.4 M
4.8 M
4.6M4.8 M
LEGEND
7 December 2015 Sources: OCHA, USGS Email: [email protected]
4.7M
4.5 M
4.5 M
4.5 M
4.6M
4.8 M
Major CityCapital
TAJIKISTAN
4.5 M
O
!(
!(!(
!(!(
!(!(!(
!(
!(!(
!(
!(!(
!(
!(
¥¦¬
¥¦¬
¥¦¬
Sy
rD
ar y
a
Amu
D
arya
Syr
Darya
Am
u
Da
r ya
Fergana
CH
AU
VAY
JALA
LAB
AD
OSH
AN
DIZH
AN
AN
GR
EN
BEK
OB
OD
CH
IRC
HIQ
CU
ST
DJIZA
KFA
RG
ON
A
GU
LISTON
MA
RG
ILON
NA
MA
NG
AN
OLM
ALIQ
QU
QO
N
SAH
RIH
AN
YAN
IYUL
Artux
Kashi
FAYZAB
AD
HA
NA
BA
D
KH
OLM
MA
ZAR
ESAR
IFQ
UN
DU
Z
KU
LAB
UR
ATJUB
E
DEN
AU
SAH
RISA
BZ
SAM
AR
QA
ND
TERM
IZ
M 7.2 - D
epth:26 Km
-07:50:06U
TC, Tajikistan
Tagarkaki
Bulunkul'
Shazud
VankalaM
iyonshakhrA
ndarv
Bardara
Darzhom
chM
adiyan
Nisur
Roshorv
Ubagn
Kudara
Muzkol
76°0'0"E
76°0'0"E
75°0'0"E
75°0'0"E
74°0'0"E
74°0'0"E
73°0'0"E
73°0'0"E
72°0'0"E 72°0'0"E
71°0'0"E
71°0'0"E
70°0'0"E
70°0'0"E
69°0'0"E
69°0'0"E
68°0'0"E
68°0'0"E67°0'0"E
41°0'0"N
41°0'0"N
40°0'0"N
40°0'0"N
39°0'0"N
39°0'0"N
38°0'0"N
38°0'0"N
37°0'0"N
37°0'0"N
!IDensity population data: W
orldPop
Road D
ata : Google M
ap Maker / O
SM
/ ES
RI
Other D
ata: US
GS
, UN
CS
, NA
SA
, NG
A, O
CH
AA
nalysis : UN
ITAR
/ UN
OS
ATP
roduction: UN
ITAR
/ UN
OS
ATA
nalysis conducted with A
rcGIS
v10.3
Coordinate S
ystem: W
GS
1984 UTM
Zone 43NP
rojection: Transverse Mercator
Datum
: WG
S 1984
Units: M
eter
The depiction
and use
of boundaries,
geographicnam
es and related data shown here are not w
arrantedto be error-free nor do they im
ply official endorsement
or acceptance by the United N
ations. UN
OS
AT is aprogram
of the United N
ations Institute for Training andR
esearch (UN
ITAR
), providing satellite imagery and
related geographic information, research and analysis
to UN
humanitarian and developm
ent agencies andtheir im
plementing partners.
This work by U
NITA
R/U
NO
SAT is licensed under a
Creative
Com
mons
Attribution-N
onCom
mercial-
ShareA
like 3.0 Unported License.
Co
ntact In
form
ation
: un
osat@
un
itar.org
24/7 Ho
tline: +41 76 487 4998
ww
w.u
nitar.o
rg/u
no
sat
This map illustrates the ground shake m
ap aspublished
by U
SG
S.
This
is a
preliminary
analysis & has not yet been validated in the
field. Please send ground feedback to U
NITA
R /
UN
OS
AT.! !%
Earthquake
¥¦¬
¥¦¬
¥¦¬¥¦¬
¥¦¬
¥¦¬
Bishkek
Islamabad
Dushanbe
Kabul
Tashkent
CH
INA
UZB
EKISTA
N
Production D
ate:07/12/2015
Version 1.0
Activation N
umber:
CE
20120813TJK
020
4060
80100
10K
m
LEG
EN
D
Map Extent
F
Map S
cale for A3: 1:2,500,000
¥¦¬C
apital
¥¦¬P
rovince Capital
!(S
ettlement Inside S
trong/Very Strong S
hake Area
")Tow
n/City
International Border
Major R
ivers
Province B
oundary
District B
oundary
SITUATION ANALYSIS (Initial report) Tajikistan Earthquake - 7 December 2015
8 December 2015
SCOPE AND SCALEBased on geospatial analysis4 using the Modified Mer-calli Intensity Scale, 1.44 million people were exposed to light to severe earthquake shaking.
Out of the total exposed population, there are 33,479 people potentially affected by Strong to Severe earth-quake shaking, who may require assistance due to light to moderate/heavy damage to buildings.
In the 4 provinces of Tajikistan, 28 districts were ex-posed to light to severe earthquake shaking. There are 5 districts in Gorno-Badakhshan province which may have suffered light to moderate/heavy damages.
These 5 districts should be priortised for assessment, response and rescue activities.
DISTRICTS IN MMI SCALE
VERY STRONG (18 - 34 %G)
Rushan Murghab
Vanj
Shugnan
7,242POPULATION
EXPOSURE
DISTRICTS IN MMI SCALE
SEVERE (34 - 65 %G)
MurghabRushan
67
DISTRICTS IN MMI SCALE
STRONG (9.2 - 18 %G)
Rushan Murghab
Roshtqala
Vanj
Shugnan
26,170
1.44 Million People Exposed to
Earthquake in Tajikistan
1.13 Million People Exposed to
Light (IV) Earthquake Shakingin Tajikistan
279,294 People Exposed to
Moderate (V) Earthquake Shaking inTajikistan
26,170 People Exposed to
Strong (VI) Earthquake Shakng inTajikistan
7,242People Exposed to
Very Strong (VII) Earth-quake Shakng inTajiki-
stan
67People Exposed to
Severe (VIII) Earthquake Shakng inTajikistan
PERCEIVED SHAKING Not Felt Weak Ligh Moderate Strong Very Strong Severe Voilent ExtremePOTENTIAL DAMAGE None None None Very light Light Moderate Moderate/Heavy Heavy Very HeavyPEAK ACC. (%g) <17 .17-1.4 1.4-3.9 3.9-9.2 9.2-18 18-34 34-65 65-124 >124PEAK VEL (cm/s) <0.1 0.1-1.1 1.1-3.4 3.4-8.1 8.1-16 16-31 31-60 60-116 >116INSTRUMENTAL INTENSITY I II-III IV V VI VII VIII IX X+
MODIFIED MERCALLI INTENSITY SCALE
33,479People may have suffered Light to Moderate/Heavy damage due to
earthquake in Tajikistan
3school buildings in
Shugnan district have been dam-aged and are not
safe for further use.
2At least two people have been trapped
and killed under the rock-falls.
500At least �ve
hundred houses are reported as partially dam-
aged.
10At least ten
people reported to injured due to earthquake and landslides
14More than 14 villages
located in Darvoz, Murghob, Rushon,
Shugnon districts are a�ected.
* Damage reports are based on Government of Tajikistan’s preliminary assessment. Not all affected areas are currently accessible due to challenging terrain and landslides
4 Initial analysis using United States Geological Surveys (USGS) data of Peak Acceleration (in%g) and Modified Marcalli Intensity (MMI) data. Spatial analysis was conducted on USGS data
using high-resolution population data of Wolrdpop as baseline. Actual damage may vary depending on type of housing structure and vulnerability of terrain.
POPULATION BREAKDOWN - EXPOSURE TO EARTHQUAKE
SITUATION ANALYSIS (Initial report) Tajikistan Earthquake - 7 December 2015
8 December 2015
JIRGATAL
NURABAD
RASHT
53,550 53,550
IVVVIVIII VII GRAND TOTAL
8,934 85,138 94,072
12 12
55,378 55,378
16,989 14,304 31,292
5,790 5,790
16,886 5,202 22,088
29,783 29,783
247 247
5 1,279 2,967 9,136 46 13,432
63 5,548 5,428 14,066 25,104
724 32,853 33,577
367 11,814 37,560 49,741
48 5,237 23,193 28,477
18,882 18,882
30,719 30,719
430 40,084 40,514
127,557 127,557
10 69,172 69,182
385 109,327 109,712
1,320 1,320
45,040 45,040
109,086 109,086
208,678 208,678
152,818 152,818
23,450 23,450
7,406 7,406
9,121 9,121
67 7,242 26,170 279,294 1,131,635 1,444,408
POPULATION EXPOSURE TO
INSTRUMENTAL INTENSITY
ROGHUN
TAVILDARA
VAHDAT
DARVOZ
ISHKASHIM
KHORUGH
MURGHAB
ROSHTQALA
RUSHAN
SHUGNAN
VANJ
BALJUVON
HAMADONI
KHOVALING
KULOB
MUMINABAD
SHUROOBOD
VOSE
ASHT
B. GAFUROV
ISFARA
KANIBADAM
KONIBODOM
KUHISTANI MASTCHOH
QAYRAQQUM
TOTAL
SITUATION ANALYSIS (Initial report) Tajikistan Earthquake - 7 December 2015
8 December 2015
CONDITIONS & RISKSThe epicenter of the quake was recorded 357 km south-east of the Tajik capital Dushanbe and 20 km from the mountain lake Sarez which is located at a elevation of 4,693 meters. The trem-ors occurred during the day, so many people managed to escape.
WEATHER
In the Pamirs and the Murghab Bartang valley the weather con-ditions are extremely challenging as the temperature at night is -10o Celcius.
Analysis of four4 weather forecast models around the area of the epicenter predicts rain and snowfall on Wednesday and Thursday and a drop in temperature to almost -20 to -30o Celcius on Friday. Extreme temperature can be a crucial impediment in reaching high altitude affected areas.
ACCESS
Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast is located in the east of Tajikistan. It has one of the longest borders with Afghanistan. Pa-mir connects the center of the country through two roads, one of which is closed in the winter. It is nearly impossible to get to many remote villages in the mountainous region in the winter. Snow piles cover most of the roads. Many villagers use horses and don-keys to get to the district centers of the region.
Heavy snowfall and frost can complicate the work of rescuers and aid responders. Humanitarian aid can be delivered to the moun-tainous region along the highway. Reaching the affected area through airplanes and helicopters is dependent on weather con-ditions and is often not possible because of the cloud cover.
Only two easily navigable roads connect GBAO to the outside world, Khorugh-Osh and Khorugh-Dushanbe, both of which are segments of the Pamir Highway. A third road from Khorugh to Tashkurgan in China through the Kulma Pass is very rough. Gor-no-Badakhshan is separated from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit Baltistan by the narrow, but nearly impassable, Wakhan Corridor. Another road leads from Khorog into the Wakhan and across the Afghan border. Khorog Airport is serviced by Tajik Air and as of 2014 had regularly scheduled flights to Dushanbe.
4 Weather Analysis
POVERTY & REMOTENESS OF AREA
Gorno-Badakhshan is one of the poorest regions in Ta-jikistan with the highest percentage of unemployment. According to the Demographic and Houshold Survey of 2012, more than half (54.4%) of the population in the Gorno-Badakhshan fall within the two lowest quin-tiles.
Because of the distance from the center and the lack of cultivated land, prices for basic food and essential commodities is twice higher than in other regions of Tajikistan.
FOOD SECURITY
According to Integrated Food Security Phase Clas-sification (IPC)5 the entire country is in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) situation.
The 2013 IPC Food Security Assessment highlighted GBAO as the most food insecure area in Tajikistan.
In 2013, 68% of the population in Eastern Pamir was in Stressed (IPC phase 2) situation, 9% in Crisis or higher (IPC Phase 3).
In Rasht Valley, 43% of the population was in Stressed situation and 2% in Crisis situation. In Western Pamir region, 51% of the population is in Stressed situation and 2% in Crisis situation.
According to FEWSNET, many poor households who are highly dependent on remittances from abroad are likely to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) during the coming winter and lean season, as wheat flour prices remain above average and remittances have declined due to labor migration restrictions and reduced labor demand in the Russian Federation, as well as depreci-ation of the Russian Ruble (RUB).
Due to the ongoing El Niño, above-average precipita-tion is expected in Tajikistan during the remainder of the October 2015 to May 2016 wet season, and tem-peratures are expected to be above-average to aver-age. These conditions are likely to support normal crop development, but could increase the risk of flooding during spring 2016.
According to current analysis, with varied earthquake effects, winter and challenging access, the food secu-rity situation can further aggravate the vulnerability of the affected population.
5 FEWSNET Tajikistan
SITUATION ANALYSIS (Initial report) Tajikistan Earthquake - 7 December 2015
8 December 2015
HOUSING & HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS
According to the Demographics and Houshold Survey of 2013, with regard to the construction of dwellings, 29 percent of households reside in dwellings with earth or sand floors. Earth/sand floors are much more common in rural than in urban areas (40 percent versus 5 percent). Shingles are the most widely used roofing material, found in around nine in ten rural and six in ten urban dwellings. Cement (33 percent) and bricks (33 percent) are the most common wall materials in urban dwellings, while rural dwellings are most often built with covered or uncovered adobe (27 percent and 28 percent, respectively).
More than eight in ten Tajik households have at least two rooms in the dwelling that are used for sleeping, and 44 percent have three or more rooms. Urban households are almost twice as likely as rural households to have only one room for sleeping (23 percent versus 12 percent).
The majority of Tajik households use electricity (52 percent) or LPG/natural gas/biogas (18 percent) for cooking, while around three in ten households burn solid fuels (e.g., wood, charcoal, straw, shrubs, grass, agricultural crops or animal dung). Rural households are much more likely than urban households to cook with solid fuels.
Almost all Tajik households (96 percent) own some type of television, primarily a color television, eight in ten have a DVD player, and four in ten own a satellite dish. The vast majority of households (94 percent) have a tele-phone, with mobile phones much more common than fixed phones.
Few Tajik households have a bank account. Three percent of urban households and two percent of rural house-holds report that they have an account.
Overall, the population in the affected region reside in structures that are vulnerable to earthquake shaking, though some resistant structures exist. The earthquakes in this area might have contributed to losses.
PRIORITY NEEDS
Food rations for cut o�, hard to reach a�ect-
ed areas
Winterise tempo-rary shelter for
population living in destroyed or
damaged houses
Healthcare for a�ected popula-tion, keeping in
view weather condition in the
a�ected area
Non-food items such as winter
clothing for childern and
adults, blankets, cooking utensils
etc.
Water, sanitation and hygiene
non-food items, clean drinking
water and sanita-tion and hygiene
interventions
Initial reports suggest that there is a need to respond urgently in five sectors. These initial needs are communi-cated by the Government of Tajikistan. Detailed needs assessment may be neccessary to provide more specific information on the affected population and humanitarian needs.
This analysis is produced by un residenT coordinaTor office in TajikisTan, unocha regional office for The caucasus, cenTral asia and ukraine (rocca), unocha’s coordinaTed assessmenT supporT secTion (cass) in geneva and uniTed naTions insTiTuTe for Training and research (uniTar) un operaTional saTelliTe applicaTions programme in geneva.
O
")
")")
")")
")
")
")
")")
")
")
")
")
")")
")")
")")
")
")
")")
")
")")
")")
")
")
")
")")
")")
")")
")")
")")
")")
")")
M 7.2 - D
epth:26 Km
-07:50:06U
TC, Tajikistan
Duzakhdara
VarshezM
ordzhBulunkul'
Kurgan-TukajSasyk-Kel'
Tagarkaki
KudaraPasorBopasor
Rukhch
Dzhingazhir
Muzkol
Barnavad
Arnavad
Roshorv
SavnobBarchadiv
YapshorvN
isur
Bidzhrav
Razudzh
IrkhtM
adiyanD
arzhomch
Chadud
Chadegiv
BardaraBasid
Nauchod
Andarv
BachchorAlichur
Miyonshakhr
VankalaC
harsem
Razak
ShazudPatkhur
Ak-Dzhar
Pish
Miyonakukh
AbualiSino
73°30'0"E
73°30'0"E
73°0'0"E
73°0'0"E
72°30'0"E 72°30'0"E
72°0'0"E 72°0'0"E
71°30'0"E 71°30'0"E
38°45'0"N
38°45'0"N
38°30'0"N
38°30'0"N
38°15'0"N
38°15'0"N
38°0'0"N
38°0'0"N
37°45'0"N
37°45'0"N
!IDensity population data: W
orldPop
Road D
ata : Google M
ap Maker / O
SM
/ ES
RI
Other D
ata: US
GS
, UN
CS
, NA
SA
, NG
A, O
CH
AA
nalysis : UN
ITAR
/ UN
OS
ATP
roduction: UN
ITAR
/ UN
OS
ATA
nalysis conducted with A
rcGIS
v10.3
Coordinate S
ystem: W
GS
1984 UTM
Zone 43NP
rojection: Transverse Mercator
Datum
: WG
S 1984
Units: M
eter
The depiction
and use
of boundaries,
geographicnam
es and related data shown here are not w
arrantedto be error-free nor do they im
ply official endorsement
or acceptance by the United N
ations. UN
OS
AT is aprogram
of the United N
ations Institute for Training andR
esearch (UN
ITAR
), providing satellite imagery and
related geographic information, research and analysis
to UN
humanitarian and developm
ent agencies andtheir im
plementing partners.
This work by U
NITA
R/U
NO
SAT is licensed under a
Creative
Com
mons
Attribution-N
onCom
mercial-
ShareA
like 3.0 Unported License.
Co
ntact In
form
ation
: un
osat@
un
itar.org
24/7 Ho
tline: +41 76 487 4998
ww
w.u
nitar.o
rg/u
no
sat
This map illustrates the ground shake m
ap aspublished
by U
SG
S.
This
is a
preliminary
analysis & has not yet been validated in the
field. Please send ground feedback to U
NITA
R /
UN
OS
AT.! !%
Earthquake
¥¦¬
¥¦¬
¥¦¬¥¦¬
¥¦¬
¥¦¬
Bishkek
Islamabad
Dushanbe
Kabul
Tashkent
CH
INA
UZB
EKISTA
N
Production D
ate:08/12/2015
Version 1.0
Activation N
umber:
CE
20151207TJK
05
1015
2025
2.5K
m
LEG
EN
D
Map Extent
F
Map S
cale for A3: 1:650,000
")S
ettlement Inside S
trong/Very Strong S
hake Area
OE
picentre
International Border
Province B
oundary
District B
oundary
Water B
odies