Since mid-November 2012 Since January 2012 developing...

Developing Trends: February 2013

Overview

Developing Trends was prepared by the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG) of the World Bank. The team is coordinated by Allen

Dennis (Overview and Trade), and is comprised of Ekaterine Vashakmadze (High-income and Inflation), Tehmina Khan (Industrial Production and

Business sentiment), Dilek Aykut and Eung Ju Kim (High-income and Finance), John Baffes and Damir Cosic (Commodities), and Sanket Mohapatra

(Exchange rate) and Adil Islam (Statistical Annex). The report was prepared under the guidance of Andrew Burns.

This note reflects the views of the team, but is not formally cleared by the World Bank Group.

Receding tail risks provide support to improving financial market conditions. The easing of financial mar-

ket tensions that commenced in Q32012 has continued through mid February. Yields on high-spread

Euro Area economies have come down sharply from the beginning of 2012 (1000 basis points in the case

of Portugal), and in Spain, Ireland and Italy are at or below 500 basis points (331 basis points for Italy). As

a result the cost of borrowing (and rolling over past debt) has declined importantly for these economies,

which should facilitate the fiscal adjustments underway. The decline in risk perceptions that underpins

these changes has also been reflected in higher yields on safe haven assets (German Bund and US Treas-

uries) in recent months and rising capital flows to higher-yielding corporate and sovereign bonds. Yields

on benchmark 10-year US treasury bills , after reaching a record low of 1.38% in July 2012, climbed past

the 2% mark during intra-day trading on January 28th- the first time in 9 months.

Improved risk perceptions have translated into better market access. In January, Portugal returned to the

international long-term debt market for the first time since 2011. And, international bond issuance by

developing countries rose 14.6% (m/m) in January, reaching a monthly record high of $36.9 billion. Simi-

larly, capital flows to other higher yielding and riskier assets have increased. Since mid-November the

benchmark developing country and high-income country stock markets indices have risen by 7.7% and

13.1% respectively. Nonetheless, the global economy still remains fragile with ongoing fiscal consolida-

tion, high unemployment, and deleveraging in high-income countries, and slower growth in some large

developing countries, and risk sentiments remain susceptible to changing fortunes.

The cyclical uptick in global economic activity is gaining strength, albeit at a different pace across re-

gions. A so-far modest global pick up in economic activity (industrial production grew at a 1.5% annual-

ized pace during the fourth quarter of 2012) is being led by developing countries. Supported by earlier

easing of policy rates, stimulus measures in some economies and recovering trade flows industrial pro-

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0

Portugal Spain Italy Ireland

Since mid-November 2012

Since January 2012

Sustained lower CDS rates for high-spread Euro Area countriesreflect lower risk perception.

Changes in 5-year soveregin CDS spreads (basis points)

Source: Bloomberg

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0

5

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25

Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12

High-income (ex. Euro Area) Euro Area

China Developing (ex. China)

Economic activity is strengthening in both high-income and developing countries.

(%ch 3m/3m saar, industrial production volume)

Source: World Bank and Datastream

February 20, 2013

Developing Trends: February 2013

duction among developing countries has been accelerating since October and grew at an annualized pace of

7.8% during the three months ending December - its fastest pace in eight months. This was driven by a solid

13.9% growth in China, while output for the rest of the developing countries rebounded by a strong 6.0 per-

centage points (-4.1% in October to 1.9% in December). Further, reflecting the strength of their domestic

economies, import demand also picked up for the third consecutive month to an annualized pace of 16.2 per-

cent in the three months leading to December 2012. The pick up in developing country industrial activity is

likely to continue through Q1 2013 as January business sentiment (including new orders) suggest strengthen-

ing expansion among several large developing countries (Brazil, China, India, Russia, and Turkey.

High-income activity is strengthening but still falling. High-income industrial activity is also improving, but

output continued to fall at a 2.5% annualized pace in Q4 2012. The pace of contraction in industrial produc-

tion eased by some 2.9 percentage points between November (-5.4%, 3m/3m saar) and December (-2.5%,

3m/3m saar). Notwithstanding the recent improvement, the weakness in high income countries reflects 9%

and 7.2% annualized declines in the Euro Area and Japan during the three months ending December, partially

offset by strong growth in the US (6.3% through January 2013) and modest growth elsewhere. High-income

PMI’s are also improving having reached 11-, 22- and 4-month highs in the Euro Area, United States and Ja-

pan in January, suggesting further strengthening going forward — a point reinforced by January capital goods

orders, which grew at a 21.5% annualized pace in the United States, and by 8.5% in Germany in December,

having contracted during the previous 5-months.

Consistent with strengthening activity, industrial commodities have firmed in recent months. Brent topped

$117 in the first week of February, up 6 percent since January 2012. Most metal prices have picked up since

end-October, reflecting strengthening in Chinese growth. These include tin (up 24.7% since end-October),

aluminum (10.7%), nickel (5.7%), and copper (13.4%). Agricultural raw material prices (rubber and cotton)

have picked up as well. However, grain prices continue to ease on waning supply-side concerns.

Despite the acceleration in developing country growth, central banks in many developing countries have fur-

ther eased monetary policy in early 2013. Reacting to growth weakness during the middle of 2012, monetary

policy in developing countries eased, a trend that continued in January, with ten developing-country central

banks (Albania, Angola, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Colombia, Georgia, India, Kenya, Mongolia and Turkey) eas-

ing further, while only one (Serbia) raised rates. While inflationary pressures are benign (inflation fell by

about 1 percentage point in 2012), this additional easing may add to additional inflation in countries operat-

ing close to full capacity.

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1

2

3

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6

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8

Developing Middle-income World High-income

2011 2012

Inflation environment was relatively subdued in 2012 compared to 2011 (Headline inflation, percent change)

Source: World Bank Prospects Groupand Datastream.

80

90

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130

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140

Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13

Crude oil and industrial commodity prices have picked up

Source: Datastream and WorldBank Prospects Group

(Indexes for metal prices, Jan 2012=100; Oil price in US$/barrel)

Tin

Copper

Brent crude oil [Right]

February 20, 2013

High income (1)

High-income country GDP performance in Q4 was disappointing

US GDP growth contracted 0.1% (q/q, saar) in Q4, following a strong 3.1 growth in Q3. UK GDP also declined by 1.2% (q/q, saar) in Q4, after a strong 3.6% expansion in Q3.

A pace of Japan’s GDP contraction slowed to 0.4% annualized rate (q/q, saar) in the fourth quarter of 2012 from a revised 3.8% pace in the third quarter. The Euro Zone’s GDP registered the third quarter of consecutive contraction with the pace of contraction accelerating to 2.4% annual-ized pace (q/q, saar) in the fourth quarter from 0.4% in the third quarter.

Q1 2013 shows strong signs of economic re-bound

The pace of contraction in industrial production in high-income countries eased by 2.6 percent-age points between November (-5.6%, 3m/3m saar) and December (-3.0%, 3m/3m saar), sup-ported by expanding output in the US. Consistent with the trends in industrial production, January capital goods orders also grew at an annualized pace of 21.5% in the US.

In Europe, Germany has registered a strong 8.5% expansion in capital goods orders in December, following a five-month long earlier contraction.

January data releases suggest activity in high-income economies will continue to improve. Markit’s Purchasing Manager’s Indices for Euro Area, US and Japan reached 11, 22 and 4-month highs respectively in January.

Retail sales are strengthening

After contracting in Q2 at 2.1% (3m/3m saar) annualized pace, high-income countries retail sales volume growth rebounded to 1.9% in Q3.

In the US, retail sales expanded at an average 8% annualized pace in the last quarter of 2012 com-pared to a negligible 0.7% growth in the second quarter, despite increase in payroll tax, reflecting labor market improvements.

In Japan, the pace of retail sales contraction slowed to 4.6% in December following a steep 8% contraction during September-November. The central bank’s commitment to a revised 2% inflation target through monetary easing is likely to further help the sales.

Weak sales in the Euro Zone are reflecting a con-tinued economic contraction and high unemploy-ment.

Economic growth in high-income economies showed strong signs of rebound in January after disappointing outcomes in the last quarter of 2012. The US and Germany are leading economic recovery with capital goods orders’ growing at a solid pace in January and retail sales also expanding. Japan’s economic contraction has slowed. Although the Euro Zone output is contracting, lead indicators herald improved business sentiment.

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12

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

USAEuro AreaJapan

High-income Quarterly GDPPercent change, q/q saar

Source: World Bank Prospects Group and Datastream Last updated: Feb. 20, 2013

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5

10

15

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25

Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13

Euro Area

Japan

United States

Percent change, 3m/3m seasonally adjusted annualized rate

Sources: Haver Analytics, Markit and World Bank Prospects Group.

Retail sales growth is positive in United States and improving in Japan

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4

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12

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May-07 Jan-08 Sep-08 May-09 Jan-10 Sep-10 May-11 Jan-12 Sep-12

USAEuro Area [Right]Japan [Right]

High-income industrial production3m/3m saar, Percent


3m/3m saar, Percent

February 20, 2013

High income (2)

G3 equity markets have been robust this year, but investors remain worried about the Euro Area economy.

Benchmark G-3 bourses have rallied since mid-November sell-off, but investors turned their fo-cus again to the Euro Area situation.

Both TOPIX and S&P 500 have touched their multi-years highs in February, posting year-to-date gains of 11.3% and 6.7%, while DAX has sig-nificantly underperformed its G3 counterparts with a gain of 1.4%.

U.S. Treasuries have weakened thus far this year, with the benchmark 10-year yield reaching 10-month high of 2.063% (intra-day trading) in mid-February.

Credit default swap spreads for troubled Euro-Area economies have declined notably from No-vember widening, but they have risen since Janu-ary with an exception of Ireland.

CDS spreads for Spain and Italy have narrowed 67 and 44 basis points (bps) from mid-November, respectively. But their spreads have moved up more than 40 bps since mid-January.

Spreads for Portugal are currently at 406 bps, down 250 bps from mid-November. And the country’s spreads have moved up slightly re-cently, but the pace of widening has been much slower (14 bps) compared to those of Spain and Italy.

In contrast, Irish spreads declined 5 bps, bucking the upward trend.

Yields on Spanish and Italian debt have been eas-ing from November highs, but they have picked up recently with persisting concerns over the Euro-zone economy.

The benchmark Spanish 10-year note yield eased by 48 basis points since mid-November, but bor-rowing cost rose by 44 bps since mid-January amid lingering worries about the country’s dimin-ishing growth prospects

The Italian 10-year yield also increased by 38 bps since mid-January with the current yield standing at 4.5%.

In contrast, bond yields in Portugal and Ireland (seen as having moved toward the completion of their reform programs) have remained lower.

G3 stocks have been robust this year, but investors continue to harbor concerns on troubled Euro Area econo-mies. The cost of insuring Spanish and Italian debt has eased markedly from November highs, but they have risen recently. Meanwhile, Ireland bucked the upward swing of CDS spreads. Spanish and Italian borrowing costs have declined sharply since last November, but they have picked up since mid-January.

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1,200

1,600

2,000

Jan-10Apr-10Jul-10Oct-10Jan-11Apr-11Jul-11Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12Oct-12Jan-13

PortugalIrelandSpainItalyBelgium

Daily CDS Sov ereign rates since Jan 1 2011Basis points


70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13

S&P-500 (USA)DAX (Germany)Topix (Japan)

G-3 equity marketsIndex, January 1 2010=100


4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13

Italy

Spain

Yields (percent)Yields (percent)

Daily yields on 10-year government bonds since May 2011

Source: World Bank Group and Bloomberg.

February 20, 2013

Industrial Activity

Global IP growth has turned positive, supported by accelerating output growth in developing countries and improving outcomes in high-income countries

Developing country IP continues to improve, ris-ing by 7.8% on a seasonally adjusted annualized (saar) basis in the three months to December.

Output in high-income countries is still contract-ing, although the pace of decline has moderated. In the US, IP growth accelerated to 6.3% in the three months to January, the third expansion in as many months. Output levels are now at their highest since mid-2008.

In Japan, the pace of contraction moderated to -7.2% in the three months to December from -18.1% in November, reflecting an easing in the downturn there. Output in the Euro Area contin-ued to contract but the pace of decline appears be stabilizing at about -9%.

IP momentum strengthened across EAP but weak-ened in LAC and ECA

IP growth gathered momentum in EAP, reaching 16.3% in the three months to December reflect-ing the rebound in China. Growth was markedly strong in Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia.

The contraction in IP growth deepened in the LAC region, with output falling by 2.7% in the three months to December compared to –1.3% in November, with weakness in Brazil, Mexico and Argentina weighing heavily. Momentum in Europe and Central Asia weakened considerably in December with output barely growing at 0.4% in the three months to December due to a sharp deceleration in Turkey. Output in Russia contin-ued to contract in the three months to January, falling by 1.4%.

IP momentum has improved in South Asia and South Africa

IP momentum picked up strongly in South Asia, expanding by 5.0% (saar) in the three months to December reflecting a recovery in India’s manu-facturing sector. Data for the rest of South Asia is lagged and shows continued contractions.

Data for Sub-Saharan Africa and MENA regions are also lagged and show sharp contractions. However, more recent data for Egypt show a slight weakening of momentum in December with growth at 12.9% following a strong rebound of 22.5% in November. Momentum has also im-proved in South Africa as mining related labor unrest has receded, with output growing by 6.6% in the three months to December.

Global industrial production is recovering, led by a continued acceleration in output growth in developing countries and an upturn in the US. IP momentum has gathered pace across East Asia, in both China and he ASEAN economies, and output is also expanding in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. However, IP growth has lost momentum in ECA and is contracting in LAC . Outcomes are also improving in high income econo-mies: US IP growth turned positive in December although it remains weak; Japan’s output decline is moderat-ing; and in the Euro Area output continues to fall, but the pace of contraction appears to be stabilizing

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4

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May-07 Jan-08 Sep-08 May-09 Jan-10 Sep-10 May-11 Jan-12 Sep-12

USAEuro Area [Right]Japan [Right]

High-income industrial production3m/3m saar, Percent


3m/3m saar, Percent

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Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12

Middle East & North AfricaIndiaSouth Asia excl. IndiaSouth AfricaSSA excl. South Africa

MENA, SAS & SSA industrial productionPercent change, 3m/3m saar


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ChinaEAP excl. ChinaEurope & Central AsiaMexicoLAC excl. Mexico

EAP, ECA & LAC industrial productionPercent change, 3m/3m saar


February 20, 2013

Business Sentiment

Global Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s survey indices (PMI) strengthened further in January

Global business sentiment continued to improve, with the JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI rising to 51.5 in January. This was the second con-secutive month that the index posted above 50 and the highest reading in ten months.

Business sentiment in the U.S. remains the strong-est among the high income countries with the manufacturing PMI rising to 55.8 in January.

Business confidence also strengthened in the Euro Area with the PMI rising to 47.5, led by im-proving sentiment in Germany, the Netherlands, Italy and Spain. Japan’s PMI remains below the 50 mark, but the marked improvement in January to 47.7 from 45.0 indicates that the pace at which output is being cut is lessening.

Business confidence in developing countries also continues to improve, with PMIs signaling expanding factory output in China, ECA region and South Africa

China’s official PMI slipped slightly in January to 50.4 but signaled sustained expansion in activity for the fourth consecutive month. Business senti-ment in Indonesia deteriorated slightly in January mainly reflecting shortages in raw materials, while in Vietnam it continues to inch up.

Business confidence has picked up in the ECA region, with a significant rise in Turkey’s PMI to 53.9 and Russia’s to 51.9 in January reflecting improving business conditions and rising invest-ment. Business sentiment also strengthened in South Africa as mining production, which had been interrupted by strikes last year, recovered. At 49.1 the index is just shy of signaling expan-sion.

Business sentiment also strengthened in the LAC and South Asia regions

Purchasing managers reported improving condi-tions in the LAC region. Brazil’s PMI strengthened to 53.2 on rising order and export volumes in January, while Mexico’s PMI reading continued to signal expansion at 54.9.

India’s PMI inched down to 53.2 in January, but the reading continues to indicate improvement in the health of the manufacturing sector.

The global economic recovery underway has boosted business confidence in both high-income and develop-ing economies, with Purchasing Manager’s Indices (PMI) recovering considerably compared to last year’s lows. Business sentiment has broadly improved across all developing regions and the PMIs are signaling rising factory output. Among high income countries, business optimism has markedly improved in the US in line with the improving economic outlook. Business sentiment in Japan and the EU has also strengthened, but PMI indices remain below the key 50 mark signaling continued contractions in output, albeit at a slower pace

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J an-10May -10Sep-10 J an-11May -11Sep-11 J an-12May -12Sep-12 J an-13

East Asia & PacificEurope & Central AsiaLatin America & CaribbeanSouth AsiaSub-Saharan Africa50-line

Manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI)Diffusion Index

Source: World Bank Prospects Group and Markit Last updated: Feb. 20, 2013

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Brazil ChinaIndia MexicoRussia South AfricaTurkey 50-line



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64


Euro AreaUSAJapanGermanyItaly50-line



February 20, 2013

International Trade (1)

After contracting for several months, global trade is expanding once again.

Consistent with receding tail risks in the global economy and a pick up in economic activity, the cyclical upswing in global trade, which com-menced in October 2012 is gathering momen-tum.

Latest available data shows global imports in-creased at an annualized 6.7% pace in the three months leading to November, with the upturn in activity driven by developing countries (13.2% in November and 17.2% in December). Nonethe-less, the acceleration in import demand among high income countries in November (4.1% 3m/3m saar) was at its strongest in eight months.

The pick up in import demand among develop-ing countries is broad-based.

Available data suggests that the expansion in developing countries is broad-based. In East Asia and the Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean, and South Asia, where data is available through December 2012, an acceleration in import de-mand is observed. This is consistent with the strengthening business cycle in their domestic economies—supported by earlier monetary pol-icy easing and stimulus measures (e.g. Brazil).

Notwithstanding the acceleration of import growth in Turkey, there was a deceleration of import demand in Eastern and Central Asia re-gion, mostly on account of import demand from Central and Eastern Europe sub-region.

Though data lags behind, the pick up in import de-mand is likely occurring in Sub Saharan Africa and the Middle East and North Africa.

Data for both sub Saharan Africa and the Middle East and North Africa lag behind. Latest available data for both regions (October 2012) shows a decelerating trend in import demand consistent with the global slowdown that was occurring at that time. Given the pick up observed globally including most developing regions, it is likely that an acceleration in import demand will be re-corded when November or December 2012 data for the region becomes available.

In the largest sub Saharan African economy, South Africa, for instance, where data is available through December, import demand accelerated from 6.6% (3m/3m, saar) in October to 23% in December.

After contracting for several months global trade is expanding once again, supported by a strong rebound in developing country imports although high-income country import growth are at their strongest level in several months. This cyclical uptick in import demand is broadly shared among developing regions and reflects the strengthening of domestic demand (supported by lower policy rates and stimulus measures) in their economies.

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Jan-10Apr-10Jul-10Oct-10Jan-11Apr-11Jul-11Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12Oct-12

WorldHigh incomeDevelopingDeveloping excl. China

Global Import v olumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar


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South AsiaSub Saharan AfricaSouth AfricaMiddle East and North Africa

Regional import v olumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar


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East Asia & Pacific East Asia & Pacific (ex. China)Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean

Regional Import v olumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar


February 20, 2013

International Trade (2)

The pick up in global economic activity, includ-ing from high income countries is supporting an acceleration in exports from developing coun-tries.

Supported by the expanding global economic activity, developing countries exports acceler-ated from 9.1% in the three months to November to 15.9% in December.

January business sentiment (Markit’s Purchasing Manager’s Index—PMI) data on new export or-ders suggest that this expansion likely to continue through Q1 2013. China’s new export orders in-dex moved from contracting territory to expan-sion in January. Similarly in Brazil, the PMI for export orders rose for the first time since March 2011 and in India new export orders was also re-ported to expand at a solid pace in December.

The expansion in exports is also broad based.

Among developing regions for which data is available through December the pace of export expansion remains strong, albeit varied across regions. Between November and December an acceleration in export momentum (3m/3m saar) is observed for both East Asia (from 11.9% to 17.8%) and Latin America (from 4.1% to 7.7%), whereas in ECA export volumes stabilized at 13.6% and decelerated in South Asia to 3.9% (from 10.6% in November).

The differences in the pace of the cyclical uptick partially reflects when the uptick began. For in-stance in South Asia, export growth has been positive for seven months whereas in East Asia and Latin America it has been only two months.

Exports in both Sub Saharan Africa and Middle East were hit hard by weakness in 2012.

Data for both Sub Saharan Africa and the Middle East lags behind other developing regions. Latest available for the region is in October 2012, when the headwinds from the global economy was still strong. In both regions export momentum growth was contracting at an annualized pace of about 26%, the sharpest decline among developing re-gions throughout the mid-year slump. In part this reflects the preponderance of oil (which is sensi-tive to global demand) in their export basket.

However, unlike MENA, export growth in SSA is likely to rebound along with the global economy (exports for South Africa was up 44.1% in Decem-ber), however ongoing political challenges in MENA will keep export growth there subdued.

After months of weak economic activity the pick up in the global economy is supporting the expan-sion in developing country exports. Latest new export orders data suggest that the expansion the current cyclical uptick in exports will persist through Q1 2012. However, among developing regions the pace of expansion will differ, depending on the strength of their respective major trading part-ners, commodity composition, months of earlier expansion, and other idiosyncratic regional factors.

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Jan-10Apr-10Jul-10Oct-10Jan-11Apr-11Jul-11Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12Oct-12

WorldHigh incomeDevelopingDeveloping excl. China

Global export v olumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar


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Regional export v olumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar


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125

150


South AsiaSub Saharan AfricaSouth AfricaMiddle East and North Africa

Regional export v olumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar


February 20, 2013

Commodities (1)

Oil prices rise on improving growth outlook and pro-duction cutbacks.

Crude oil prices have been on the rise since the beginning of 2013. Brent and WTI gained 5.3% and 6.3%, respectively in January as the improv-ing global economic recovery has increased de-mand for oil while, at the same time, there have been reductions in OPEC’s output. These upside factors have not eased and both benchmarks con-tinued their gains through mid-February.

Libya’s and Iraq’s oil output have mostly recov-ered to pre-war levels while Iran’s oil exports are 0.3 mb/d below pre-sanctions levels and may tumble even further.

The gap between Brent (the international marker) and WTI (US domestic price) topped US$ 23/bbl in early February 2013.

Most base metal prices rebounded since end-October on improving growth outlook.

In October, news about the weakening global economy (including the euro debt and the US fiscal cliff) put a damper on prices. However, bet-ter than expected Chinese growth and improving global economic outlook led to upward pressures on metal prices since.

From their end-October 2012 lows, most base metal prices have continuously rebounded since. Prices of tin, copper, nickel and aluminum have rebounded 24.7%, 13.4%, 5.7%, and 10.7%, re-spectively, by end-January.

Most base metals are in surplus for 2013 which will limit significant upside price pressures with exception of tin where shortages are expected, and consequently, the prices have firmed more.

Platinum prices are diverging from gold and silver.

Since the end-October 2012, platinum is the only precious metal that has seen increase in prices given that it has some industrial use amid improv-ing global outlook. Prices of platinum have in-creased by 8.8%, while those of gold and silver have decreased by 4.2% and 4.1%, respectively, by end-January.

The relative weakness of gold and silver prices since the beginning of 2013 is a result of inves-tors’ increased risk appetite and belief that unor-thodox monetary policy measures (QE3, etc.) might come to an end sooner amid improving global outlook. Meanwhile, the platinum industry has been plagued by supply issues at a time when demand for industrial use is increasing.

Crude oil prices increased since the beginning of the year amid improving outlook for the global economic recovery and reported reductions in OPEC production. Similarly, improving global economic outlook is sup-porting the rise in base metals prices and platinum, while its having the opposite effect on precious metals like gold and silver.

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120

130


BrentWest-Texas Intermediate

Oil pricesUSD per barrel


80

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110

120

130

140


TinCopperNickelAluminium

Metals PricesIndex, January 2012=100


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Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oc t-12 Jan-13

GoldPlatinumSilver (right axis)

US cents/troy ouncePrecious Metal Prices

US$/troy ounce

Source: World Bank Prospects Group and Handy&Harman Last updated: Feb. 15, 2013

February 20, 2013

Commodities (2)

Global maize and wheat markets still very tight; rice market well-supplied.

In its February 8, 2013 update, the USDA left the 2012/13 grain outlook largely unchanged. The stock-to-use ratio (S/U) for maize remains at his-torical lows—it is expected to be at the 30-year low of 13.6% at the end of the current (2012/13) season, down from last season’s 14.9%.

Wheat supplies are less tight than maize. The S/U ratio for that market is expected at 26.2% at the end of 2012/13, down from last season’s 28.2%.

The rice market is well supplied with rice exports reaching record high during 2012. China was a key destination of rice imports, which exceeded 2.6 million tons during 2012, up from 0.6 million tons in 2011. Strong imports by China are ex-pected in 2013 as well.

Grain prices eased following USDA’s February 8 global outlook update.

Maize and wheat prices are down 5.5% and 4.3%, respectively since the beginning of February—15% and 21% lower since their summer peaks but 10% and 18% higher than a year ago. On the con-trary, rice prices have been remarkably stable during the past few months fluctuating within a very narrow range—US$550 to US$565 per ton.

Although tight global grain (notably maize) sup-plies entail upside price risks, the probability of such risks materializing at this stage is low as the 2012/13 season is coming slowly to a close and attention will soon turn to 2013/14. Barring a bumper crop and given that it takes at least 2 seasons for stocks to be fully replenished, upside price risks may remain well into the next season.

Raw material prices strengthen on improved eco-nomic outlook.

Raw material prices have strengthened with cot-ton and natural rubber prices gaining 2.6% and 6.2% percent, respectively in January. In addition to improved economic outlook, cotton was sup-ported by an aggressive re-stocking policy by China while natural rubber was aided by higher crude oil prices which increase the cost of pro-ducing synthetic rubber—a by-product of crude oil.

Separately, global soybean production has been virtually unchanged as an increase in Brazil offsets a reduction experienced by Argentina due to weather problems. Global edible oil production is expected to reach yet another record in 2012/13 (57 million ton).

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) left largely unchanged the 2012/13 outlook in its February 8 up-date. Maize (and less so wheat) markets remain tight but the rice market is well supplied. The oilseed and edi-ble oil market outlook remained unchanged as well. Most food prices were slightly down in early February but raw material prices have been inching up in response to improved global economic outlook.

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13

WheatMaize

Grain pricesUS$ per metric tonne

Source: World Bank Prospects Group and CME Last updated: Feb. 15, 2013

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.8

3.2

3.6

4.0

4.4

Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13

Cotton [Left]Rubber [Right]

Raw material pricesUS$ per kilogram

Source: World Bank Prospects Group, ICE and SGX Last updated: Feb. 15, 2013

US$ per kilogram

25%

26%

27%

28%

29%

30%

13%

14%

15%

16%

17%

18%

11/12 MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB

Wheat remains unchanged, maize still tight(stock-to-use ratio updates for 2012/13, percent)

Maize (left axis)

Wheat (right axis)

Source: US Department of Agriculture (February 8, 2013)

February 20, 2013

International Finance (1)

0

100

200

300

400

500

Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13

East Asia & PacificEurope & Central AsiaLatin America & CaribbeanMiddle-East & North Africa

Daily CDS Sov ereign rates since Jan 1 2011Basis points


70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110


MSCI AsiaMSCI EEMSCI LAC

MSCI Regional Equity IndicesIndex (Jan 1, 2011 = 100)


70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110


Emerg ing MarketsDeveloped Markets

MSCI Equity IndicesIndex (Jan 1, 2011 = 100)


Developing-country CDS rates have remained much lower than November highs, but they have risen recently, driven mostly by Argentina.

CDS spreads for developing countries stand 92 bps below a four-month high of 342 bps reached in late November, but they have risen recently, driven mainly by rising Argentinian spreads.

An unfavorable U.S. court ruling on the Argen-tina’s 2001 debt restructuring deal sent the na-tion’s spreads to record 3,675 bps last November. Following temporally injunction on the ruling has since eased investor sentiment. But renewed con-cerns of a default and IMF’s unprecedented cen-sure of the country for economic data pushed spreads up above 2,300 bps recently.

Global equities have been rising since November sell-off, but the strong rally seen in past months has eased recently. The global stock markets have been robust since

November, but the strong rally seen in the past months seems to fade out slightly moving into February with European shares leading the trend.

Developing-country stocks have advanced 0.2% thus far February compared to a 5.3% gain in January. U.S. and Japanese equities have contin-ued to post gains (albeit smaller ones), but Euro-pean shares have dropped considerably amid re-newed concerns over the Euro area.

Developing-country shares have slid 1.1% this month, lowering year-to-date gains to 0.4% com-pared with a 6.4% advance for mature markets.

Stock markets across developing regions have posted losses in February.

General weakness was shown among developing country stock markets thus far February, with Emerging Asian shares faring better than other regions .

Both Emerging Europe and Latin America re-gional indices have declined by 2.4% and 2.2% thus far February, respectively. Meanwhile, Emerging Asia stock markets have lost 0.8% of its value in the month.

Among the so-called BRIC countries, only China posted some gains for the month (0.6%), while others experienced the declines (Brazil by 3.1%, Russian by 2.3%, and India by 1.1%).

CDS spreads for developing countries remain considerably lower than November highs, but they have wid-ened recently, driven mainly by a surge in Argentinian spreads. Global equity markets have been robust since November sell-off, but the strong rally seen in the past months seems to fade out slightly moving into Febru-ary. Stock markets across developing regions weakened thus far February, led by Emerging Europe region.

February 20, 2013


Inflows to developing-country bond and equity funds remain strong thus far this year.

Emerging-market bond funds posted inflows of about $76 billion in 2012, more than tripling the 2011 levels and surpassing the record high $61.8 billion reached in 2010.

Meanwhile, investors put about $46.4 billion into developing-country equity funds last year, com-pared with $47.6 billion outflows in 2011.

Inflows have remained robust thus far this year, with equity funds outperforming bond funds.

Capital flows are off to the robust start for the year on record bond issuance. Gross capital flows to developing countries re-

mained strong at $53.7 billion in January, as re-cord bond flows offset faltering bank lending.

January capital flows stood 21% above the $44.2 billion monthly average for 2012; and 53% higher than $35 billion of last January.

Meanwhile, January equity flows are more than $8 billion higher than year-earlier levels at $10.1 billion, and bank flows are up slightly for the same period.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Bond IssuanceEquity IssuanceSyndicated Bank Loans

Gross Capital Flows to Dev eloping Regions$ bil l ion, 3-mon. m.a.


Developing-country borrowing costs for both sovereigns and corporates currently stand more than 150 bps above last year’s highs, but they have been rising recently as market sentiment has turned slightly negative. Inflows to developing-country bond and equity funds have been steady this year, with equity funds outper-forming bond funds. Capital flows are off to the strong start for the year, thanks mainly to record bond flows.

EM borrowing costs for both sovereigns and cor-porates remain considerably lower than last year’s highs, but they have been rising recently.

EM sovereign bond spreads are currently at 275 bps, down 167 bps from last year’s high, but they are up from multi-years low of 245 bps reached in early January.

The Argentine sovereign bonds continued to be the riskiest debt among major developing coun-tries, with the nation’s spreads remained hovering around 1,110 bps.

EM corporate bond spreads climbed as well (albeit lesser degree) from January, widened by 11 bps to the current levels of 304 bps.

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Inflows into equity funds

Inflows into bond funds

$ billion

Strong foreign inflows to developing-country mutual

funds in 2012

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

Jun-11 Nov-11 Apr-12 Sep-12 Feb-13

EM sovereign spreads

EM corporate spreads

JP Morgan's EMBIG & CEMBI bond spreads (basis points)JP Morgan's EMBIG & CEMBI bond spreads (basis points)

Developing-country bond spreads widened slightly

February 20, 2013


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14


East Asia & PacificEurope & Central AsiaLatin America & CaribbeanMiddle East & North AfricaSouth AsiaSub-Saharan Africa

International Equity Issuance$ billion (3-mon. m.a.)


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14


East Asia & PacificEurope & Central AsiaLatin America & CaribbeanMiddle East & North AfricaSouth AsiaSub-Saharan Africa

International Bond Issuance$ billion (3-mon. m.a.)


0

2

4

6

8

10


East Asia & PacificEurope & Central AsiaLat in America & CaribbeanMiddle East & North AfricaSouth AsiaSub-Saharan Africa

Source: Deallogic, DEC Prospects Group Last updated: Feb. 15, 2013

Bank Lending$ billion (3-mon. m.a.)

Equity flows remained relatively steady in Janu-ary.

Equity placements (a combination of IPOs and follow-on issuance) reached $10.1 billion in January, down slightly from December but up sharply from a year earlier.

EAP and LAC accounted for about 90% of the January monthly volume (53% and 37%, respec-tively).

The stock market rally in January did not translate to the strengthening of equity issuance market, due mostly to lingering weakness in developing-country IPO markets.

Developing countries’ bond issuance began 2013 on a record pace.

Bond flows reached a historic high of $36.9 bil-lion in January, surpassing the previous record of $32.2 billion reached last September, helped by robust investor’s risk-appetite and as borrowers seek lock in unprecedented low borrowing costs.

Corporate borrowers continued to dominate the bond market, making up 86% of the monthly vol-ume, and East Asian companies accounted for 42% of the corporate universe; they were also highly skewed towards banking and natural-resource sectors.

Preliminary data suggest, February volume are likely to suffer amid rising market volatility and funding costs.

Syndicated bank lending is down in January, due to inflated December volume.

Syndicated bank loans to developing countries dropped sharply by 80% to an estimated $7 bil-lion in January as compared to December, when loan volumes were inflated by one huge $16.8 billion lending to Russian oil company Rosneft.

January bank lending was also lower than Octo-ber and November as some borrowers found bond financing on more favorable terms.

Looking ahead, bank lending is likely to pick up significantly as Russia’s Rosneft is currently raising $14.2 billion of loans to finance the second part of its acquisition of TNK-BP.

Equity flows remained steady in January, with EAP and LAC accounting for the bulk of the total volume. Bond flows rose to a record high in the month, helped by robust risk appetite, and as borrowers seek to lock in record-low borrowing costs. Corporate borrowers, especially from EAP and banking and natural-resource sectors, dominated bond sales (86% of total). Bank flows fell sharply as compared to usually high December levels.

February 20, 2013

Exchange Rates

Receding tail risks in the Euro Area pushed up the euro higher. Prospects of policy easing pushed yen/USD to highest since May 2010.

The euro appreciated to 1.35/US dollar in Febru-ary. Easing of financial market tensions after Mario Draghi’s promise to stand behind the euro in July, OMT bond purchase plan by the ECB in Sept., and extension of Greek debt in Nov. all reduced tail risks and resulted in a surge into euro-dominated assets—resulting in a 7.5% apprecia-tion of the euro in real effective exchange rate (REER) terms between July and January.

Prospects of monetary policy easing and a de-cline in exports (from subdued global growth and dispute with China) depreciated the Japanese yen by 14% in REER terms between Oct. and Jan.

Developing countries’ real exchange rates reflect both the movements in high income currencies and upward pressures from capital inflows and higher commodity prices

The currencies of large emerging market (EM) currencies have gained to varying degrees in re-cent months in REER terms. Acceleration in growth in China and strengthening of global de-mand raised international commodity prices, while stabilization in Euro Area pushed capital flows towards higher-risk emerging market as-sets, putting upward pressure on EM currencies.

The Brazilian real and Russian ruble strengthened driven by high commodity prices and capital in-flows. The Mexican peso benefited from rising US demand for Mexican exports (despite a 0.1% fall in US GDP in Q4) and strong portfolio inflows.

The South African rand and Indian rupee were notable exceptions to the trend of appreciation in developing countries’ currencies.

The Turkish lira strengthened in REER terms on portfolio inflows and sound export performance, and an inflation differential with trade-partner countries. The managed Chinese yuan continued to appreciate relative to USD and depreciated relative to euro on improving growth and stronger export performance.

However, the Indian rupee continued to exhibit weakness due to growth concerns and a widening current account deficit. The South African rand’s performance was also adversely affected by ear-lier mining sector tensions and weak growth.

The euro continued to appreciate into February after policy actions by Euro Area authorities stabilized finan-cial markets and reduced tail risks. Prospects of aggressive monetary policy easing in Japan pushed the yen to a near 3-year low. Developing countries’ real exchange rates reflect partly the movements in high income exchange rates; these currencies also came under upward pressures from capital flows to emerging markets and strengthening commodity prices.

84

88

92

96

100

104

108


JapanUSAEuro Area

High income real effectiv e exchange ratesIndex, Jan 2011 = 100


75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110


Brazil ChinaIndia IndonesiaMexico RussiaTurkey South Africa

Dev eloping nominal effectiv e exchange rateIndex, Jan 2011 = 100


84

88

92

96

100

104

108

112


Brazil ChinaIndia IndonesiaMexico RussiaTurkey South Africa

Dev eloping real effectiv e exchange rateIndex, Jan 2011 = 100


February 20, 2013

Inflation

Despite a global moderation in prices, within-the-year inflation patterns varied considerably among countries at different income levels throughout 2012

Inflation was broadly stable in middle-income countries fluctuating around a 6 percent annual-ized rate level.

In high-income countries inflation accelerated in the fourth quarter of 2012 reaching a 3% annual-ized rate threshold as it recovered from its mid-year dip, barely avoiding disinflation.

Low-income countries experienced a steep de-cline in inflation rates with easing food and fuel prices driving this decline.

Inflation momentum remains temperate in EAP (excluding China), and is stabilizing in the ECA and LAC regions reflecting a compete pass through of increased grain prices into inflation

Inflation is broadly in-check across EAP. However, recent flooding is putting price pressures in Indo-nesia. In Vietnam, inflation momentum acceler-ated to double digit rates in Q42012 reflecting a reversal to a relatively loose macro stance. In China, inflation remains below the central bank’s 6% inflation target despite an acceleration of inflation momentum to 2.9% annualized rate in the three months to January from below 2.5% during Q3 and Q4 of 2012.

Inflation moderated in ECA and LAC regions from earlier grain prices related acceleration episodes. Inflation nevertheless remains elevated in large Middle Income Countries (MICs): Brazil, Turkey and Russia reflecting price pressures generated by demand boosting actions due to supply side bottlenecks.

Inflation momentum accelerated in MENA, South Asia and Sub Saharan Africa in the fourth quarter fol-lowing a steep decline during the first three quarters of 2012

Easing price pressures during 2012 have bene-fited East African countries allowing Kenya, Uganda and Mozambique to implement consid-erable policy rate cuts. A lagged pass-through of global grain price increase into local food price inflation as well as floods in Nigeria pushed infla-tion momentum up in Sub-Saharan Africa in Q42012. Up-tick in inflation momentum in South Africa reflected fiscal relaxation, currency depre-ciation and private sector wage hikes.

Supply disruptions in MENA and ineffective pol-icy easing in South Asia given deep structural problems are contributing to price pressures.

Global inflation eased in 2012 reflecting economic weakness, moderating commodity prices and earlier pol-icy tightening. The average annual inflation rates in both high-income and developing countries experienced about a percentage point decline in 2012 compared to 2011. Inflation remained in check in January 2013 in the face of accelerating global activity and notwithstanding a pick-up in oil prices. Further monetary easing is likely to generate price pressures in countries operating at full capacity, without much payoff in output.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9


Developing CPI inflationHigh-income CPI inflation

Dev eloping and high income inflationPercent change, 3m/3m saar

Source: World Bank Prospects Group Last updated: Feb. 15, 2013

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18


Middle East & North Africa excl. Iran and SyriaSouth AsiaSouth AfricaSSA excl. South Africa

MENA, SAS & SSA inflationPercent change, 3m/3msaar


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13

ChinaEAP excl. ChinaEurope & Central AsiaLatin America & Car ibbean

EAP, ECA & LAC inflationPercent change, 3m/3m saar


February 20, 2013

Average 2012 20121999-09 2010 2011 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sep Oct Nov Dec

World 1.9 9.0 4.5 2.4 1.4 5.8 -0.2 0.1 -0.3 0.1 0.7 0.3High - in come cou n tries 0.3 8.0 2.8 0.6 0.6 2.7 -1.1 -2.7 -1.3 0.0 0.1 0.6

Industrial countries 0.2 7.7 2.5 0.5 0.4 2.3 -1.1 -2.6 -1.4 -0.1 0.1 0.6United States 0.1 5.4 4.1 3.7 5.1 5.9 2.4 0.4 0.2 -0.3 1.0 0.3Japan -1.0 16.6 -2.3 -1.0 1.7 5.1 -7.7 -15.8 -4.1 1.6 -1.4 2.5Euro Area 0.1 6.8 3.2 -2.4 -5.4 -2.7 -1.7 0.3 -2.1 -0.8 -0.6 0.1United Kingdom -1.0 2.1 -0.7 -2.4 -4.9 -1.1 -3.4 2.7 -2.1 -0.8 0.2 1.1

Other high income 0.2 7.7 2.5 0.5 2.3 -1.1 -2.6 -3.5 -1.4 -0.1 0.1 0.6Hong Kong (China) -3.7 3.4 0.8 .. -3.8 -0.2 -4.5 8.1 1.3 .. .. ..Singapore 5.6 29.6 7.9 0.0 5.0 23.1 0.6 -26.8 -2.6 1.1 1.9 5.4Taiwan (China) 3.4 26.9 5.0 0.0 -2.2 5.3 2.7 5.8 2.8 -1.0 0.6 -0.6

Dev elopin g cou n tries 6.2 10.7 7.3 5.5 2.8 11.0 1.3 4.6 1.2 0.4 1.7 -0.1East Asia and Pacific 11.7 14.5 11.6 9.2 3.8 16.9 2.7 7.4 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.0

China 13.7 15.5 13.7 10.0 10.8 13.2 3.3 9.7 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2Indonesia 3.4 4.7 4.0 3.7 -8.1 6.9 1.5 -6.8 15.8 5.7 -1.8 1.5Thailand 8.6 14.4 -9.3 2.8 -80.3 250.3 8.7 -15.8 -5.0 6.6 7.9 -3.1Malaysia 4.7 7.2 1.2 4.1 8.6 12.3 -3.7 -6.2 5.9 1.1 1.0 -2.4

Europe and Central Asia 3.2 9.5 5.9 1.9 5.2 4.8 -3.5 1.9 2.7 -3.0 5.2 -4.3Russian Federation 4.1 8.3 4.8 2.5 2.3 8.9 -3.3 2.7 -0.9 0.1 0.5 -0.7Turkey 2.6 13.1 9.1 2.3 14.8 1.5 -5.2 1.2 12.9 -11.3 18.9 -13.0Poland 6.3 10.8 7.3 2.1 12.3 -2.5 -2.7 -0.3 -1.4 1.7 -1.4 -1.9Czech Republic 3.0 9.8 6.6 -1.2 6.7 -1.3 -3.3 -5.9 0.0 -0.7 -0.8 -0.1

Latin America and Caribbean 1.3 6.7 3.3 0.5 -0.7 1.8 -1.1 3.2 -0.6 0.3 -0.2 -1.2Brazil 2.4 10.6 0.4 -2.8 -6.6 -3.3 -3.2 4.2 -0.8 0.6 -1.3 0.0Mexico 1.2 6.1 4.0 3.4 5.6 5.8 1.8 2.2 0.6 -1.0 1.3 -2.1Argentina 2.3 9.2 4.5 .. -0.6 -2.5 -8.8 5.9 1.3 0.1 .. ..Colombia 1.9 3.9 4.7 .. -1.5 1.4 -5.1 5.6 -1.8 1.4 -2.8 ..

Middle East and North Africa 1.8 1.6 -9.9 .. 9.8 12.1 12.6 -8.5 2.1 -4.5 .. ..Saudi Arabia 0.1 7.9 6.3 .. 8.8 14.9 -7.0 -9.2 0.4 0.6 .. ..Iran 1.1 1.1 -0.6 .. -7.8 -17.4 -29.8 -31.4 1.3 -4.4 .. ..Egypt .. 10.0 -6.6 .. 17.0 6.4 -5.4 -21.4 16.8 -4.0 4.4 ..Algeria 2.5 -2.8 0.0 .. -1.3 5.3 -0.7 -0.5 0.0 -4.6 .. ..

South Asia 7.0 9.9 5.0 0.8 -1.2 11.4 -7.0 -0.8 -1.8 2.2 0.3 -0.8India 7.3 9.7 4.8 0.8 -0.9 10.5 -5.6 -1.4 -2.3 2.7 0.0 -0.7Pakistan 5.8 10.9 6.4 1.6 -2.9 19.5 -18.8 10.4 2.3 -1.1 2.9 -1.2Sri Lanka .. 15.1 8.2 .. -3.9 13.9 -9.1 -15.5 0.6 -1.7 .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 2.2 4.1 4.0 .. -0.2 -3.8 5.2 5.1 1.0 -2.7 .. ..South Africa 1.1 4.9 2.4 2.2 4.4 5.6 -0.1 0.5 -2.7 1.5 2.6 -2.2Nigeria 0.4 11.2 3.9 .. -23.5 15.9 18.5 -13.0 -5.2 -2.2 .. ..

Memo:OECD 0.3 7.7 2.7 0.6 0.8 2.5 -1.0 -2.4 -1.1 -0.3 0.4 0.1Developing excl. China 2.9 7.2 2.3 1.6 -3.7 9.0 -0.4 0.0 1.3 -0.3 2.2 -1.9Developing oil exporters 2.1 5.0 1.2 2.5 1.9 7.3 1.8 -1.3 1.6 -0.1 0.3 -0.7Dev. non-oil exporters 8.7 12.9 9.6 6.5 3.2 12.3 1.2 6.7 1.1 0.5 2.0 0.0

Table A.1 Global industrial production growth(constant prices; percent; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures which are

in percent change over previous month a/)

a In general, series refer to industrial production excluding construction (e.g. manufacturing,

mining and utilitites). Where this is not available the closest proxy is used, often

manufacturing output or oil output, if the country is a major oil producer.

February 20, 2013

Weight Avg 2012 20121995 1999-09 2010 2011 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sep Oct Nov Dec

Real GDP

High - in come cou n tries 1.8 2.9 1.6 -12.2 1.8 0.4 1.0 .. .. .. .. ..Industrial countries 1.8 2.7 1.5 0.0 1.7 0.4 1.0 .. .. .. .. ..

United States 2.0 2.4 1.8 0.0 2.0 1.3 3.1 -0.1 .. .. .. ..Japan 0.5 4.7 -0.5 0.0 5.7 -0.1 -3.5 .. .. .. .. ..Euro Area 1.5 2.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 -0.6 -0.2 .. .. .. .. ..

United Kingdom 2.1 1.8 0.9 0.0 -1.0 -1.5 3.8 -1.2 .. .. .. ..

Real merch an dis e imports

High - in come cou n tries 5.3 11.8 8.2 -2.2 14.9 -6.5 -5.8 8.1 -2.1 4.2 -1.5 -0.1Industrial countries 5.2 11.2 8.5 -2.8 14.8 -7.0 -7.0 5.8 -2.7 4.6 -2.1 -0.6

United States 3.0 14.9 3.8 2.8 14.0 4.9 -10.3 0.3 -2.9 3.8 1.1 -4.5Japan 5.7 17.9 14.7 3.8 5.3 15.5 -10.3 -27.3 -0.9 -4.5 -1.6 -3.6Euro Area 5.3 3.0 7.9 .. 7.2 -15.2 -14.2 .. -3.8 5.7 -2.9 ..United Kingdom 2.9 9.3 5.4 .. 16.8 -0.3 -9.6 .. -3.7 4.6 -4.0 ..

Other high income 5.2 11.2 8.5 -2.8 14.8 -7.0 -7.0 5.8 4.1 -0.3 4.9 5.5Hong Kong (China) 3.0 18.7 4.3 1.6 6.1 -11.8 11.8 32.4 2.4 -1.6 5.1 6.5Singapore 5.7 16.0 1.2 3.8 25.5 -5.7 -14.3 15.9 -2.8 6.8 -1.0 -2.0Taiwan (China) 5.3 35.5 3.9 -2.5 2.0 10.6 -1.4 14.8 11.0 0.1 -3.8 4.5

I mport Prices

High - in come cou n tries 1.9 5.2 8.6 0.8 0.4 -7.2 -2.4 0.1 0.9 -0.5 0.0 -0.7Industrial countries 1.8 5.3 8.5 0.6 0.6 -8.2 -2.3 0.9 0.9 -0.4 0.1 -0.6

United States 2.4 6.9 10.9 0.3 1.6 -11.1 -0.1 5.8 1.4 0.6 -0.8 0.3Japan 1.6 7.1 7.4 -0.1 5.9 -14.6 -5.3 23.5 2.8 1.6 1.3 1.8Euro Area 1.7 8.3 8.6 .. 2.5 -4.8 4.0 .. 0.6 0.2 -1.5 ..United Kingdom 1.9 5.8 7.9 -0.3 -0.8 -10.6 2.9 0.1 -1.3 0.2 0.7 ..

Other high income 1.8 5.3 8.5 0.6 0.6 -8.2 -2.3 0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.9 -2.4Hong Kong (China) 2.4 5.1 7.4 2.8 3.7 0.3 0.1 -3.3 -0.1 0.5 -0.3 -3.4Singapore 1.6 9.2 16.1 0.2 16.6 -22.3 2.9 10.0 2.7 0.1 -0.4 -0.2Taiwan (China) 1.7 7.0 7.7 -1.3 -3.6 -11.1 -3.1 -7.1 -0.6 -0.9 -1.1 -0.2

Real effectiv e ex ch an ge rates a

Euro Area 33.5 1.1 -5.9 1.9 -4.7 -2.3 -6.6 -6.8 -2.9 2.3 0.6 -0.4 1.5United States 14.4 -0.9 -3.9 -4.9 3.0 1.5 5.7 5.2 -0.1 -1.3 -0.1 0.5 -0.7Japan 7.4 -0.2 1.2 1.7 -1.2 1.2 2.5 -0.6 -7.6 -0.4 -1.5 -2.4 -4.2United Kingdom 5.4 -1.4 3.6 1.4 5.2 1.7 6.3 7.6 5.4 0.2 -0.3 0.3 -0.4Canada 3.5 1.8 10.2 2.0 -0.3 -1.4 -2.4 0.2 2.8 0.6 -0.9 -0.7 0.3Hong Kong (China) 3.5 -3.0 -3.8 -4.2 3.9 2.4 4.4 5.9 2.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 -0.2Korea, Rep. 2.5 -0.1 8.6 1.9 0.3 0.2 -3.1 -1.4 5.9 -0.2 1.6 2.2 1.4Singapore 2.3 -0.7 3.4 5.5 4.6 3.1 3.8 3.9 7.5 1.3 -0.1 0.5 0.2Taiwan (China) 2.1 -2.5 3.8 0.4 -2.1 -3.2 -2.6 -2.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.0Switzerland 1.7 0.1 5.8 9.7 -3.1 1.6 -2.2 -9.0 -2.1 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.3

Table A.2 Demand conditions in high-income countries(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates

except monthly figures, which are m/m change)

a/ JP Morgan Trade Weighted Indices (Real, Broad basis). Data are averages of monthly data for the period

in question.

February 20, 2013

Average 2012 20121999-08 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sep Oct Nov Dec

Policy RatesUnited States 3.44 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12Japan 0.33 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30Euro Area .. 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00United Kingdom 4.80 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50

Ten year bon dUnited States 4.70 3.67 3.26 3.21 2.79 2.04 1.82 0.78 0.75 1.72 1.75 1.65 1.72Japan 1.49 1.47 1.33 1.15 1.10 0.96 0.85 2.90 2.22 0.76 0.76 0.71 0.78Euro Area .. 4.36 4.03 3.79 4.31 3.65 3.44 23.69 16.16 2.43 2.31 2.25 2.10United Kingdom 4.77 4.80 5.17 9.09 15.75 24.74 25.40 0.00 0.00 20.91 17.96 17.20 13.33

Spreads (Bas is poin ts ) b ,c

Dev elopin g cou n tries .. 483 296 323 329 364 364 315 272 271 282 264 ..East Asia and Pacific .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..China 82 126 77 193 218 271 259 185 156 159 158 152 ..Indonesia .. 481 218 225 228 235 264 230 184 180 189 184 ..Phillippines .. 340 206 200 177 206 211 165 124 121 124 127 ..Malaysia 129 230 140 145 152 176 175 149 109 116 108 103 ..

Europe and Central Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Russian Federation 262 443 229 259 255 307 297 232 184 185 195 172 ..Turkey 404 367 221 260 281 352 328 249 197 215 196 179 ..Poland 99 222 156 210 192 250 232 163 122 131 124 112 ..

Latin America and Caribbean 522 522 345 353 345 364 371 337 308 302 324 299 ..Brazil 551 306 202 195 183 202 206 178 148 146 152 145 ..Mexico 206 302 187 186 188 209 207 174 161 155 168 161 ..Argentina 2920 1198 690 687 989 834 1063 1018 1041 893 1195 1035 ..Colombia 370 329 189 168 148 174 165 135 117 111 123 116 ..

Middle East and North Africa .. 578 346 369 455 446 459 478 438 437 440 435 ..Egypt .. 134 173 371 502 542 554 485 427 414 416 451 ..

South Asia d .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Pakistan .. 1186 624 922 1067 1274 1116 1048 828 860 824 800 ..Sri Lanka .. 1066 369 358 414 450 460 416 331 311 337 346 ..

Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..South Africa 172 301 167 195 206 241 230 178 176 181 182 165 ..

Gros s in flow s e

Dev elopin g cou n tries .. 353 492 455 526 116 99 144 101 71 57 61 53East Asia and Pacific .. 91 144 116 153 26 41 90 59 41 41 41 41Europe and Central Asia .. 72 105 115 112 24 28 44 37 13 13 17 8Latin America and Carribean .. 137 161 154 176 51 21 41 30 19 19 20 27Middle East and North Africa .. 4 13 6 13 2 1 33 3 30 20 16 11South Asia .. 31 53 33 49 10 5 3 4 0 0 1 2Sub-Saharan Africa .. 18 15 30 22 4 5 10 7 4 4 4 4

Table A.3 Global credit conditions(percent unless otherwise indicated a/)

a/Monthly figures are simple averages of daily figures. Quarterly and Annual figures are simple averages of monthly figures.

b/Average values for Spreads are for the period 1996-2003.

c/Aggregates as defined by JP Morgan.

d/East Asia and Pacific including South Asian countries.

e/In billions of US dollars.

February 20, 2013

Weightsb Average 2012 2012

1990 2000-09 2010 2011 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sep Oct Nov Dec

Energy .. .. 144.7 188.2 187.4 200.8 183.7 183.2 182.1 188.5 183.7 180.9 181.6

Coal, Australia .. 10.7 207.8 255.0 202.4 238.6 200.6 187.7 182.4 186.8 171.9 180.4 195.0

Crude o il, average .. 13.1 148.0 194.8 196.7 210.7 192.6 192.5 190.9 199.1 193.7 189.5 189.5

Natural gas , Europe .. 15.1 131.0 166.2 181.3 182.0 182.0 175.9 185.5 175.1 183.0 187.0 186.4

N o n-energy 100.0 .. 173.9 209.9 190.0 192.9 189.3 191.0 186.9 192.0 188.8 185.0 187.0

A griculture 69.1 .. 170.4 209.0 194.0 192.6 191.7 200.6 191.1 200.2 194.2 190.1 189.0

B everages 16.9 .. 182.1 208.2 166.2 171.7 162.7 169.7 160.8 172.0 165.4 160.3 156.9

Cocoa 3.9 9.8 203.7 193.7 155.5 152.2 148.3 162.2 159.3 170.4 160.2 161.1 156.7

Coffee, arabica 8.0 3.3 170.6 236.0 162.3 192.3 158.1 158.0 141.0 155.8 150.9 139.2 133.0

Coffee, robusta 2.8 1.0 155.8 216.0 203.4 199.3 207.3 210.0 197.0 207.6 206.7 193.2 191.1

F o o d 29.4 .. 169.6 210.1 211.6 203.6 206.9 225.2 210.7 223.3 214.4 210.2 207.6

F ats and o ils 10.1 .. 184.5 222.7 230.0 216.9 231.1 250.2 221.9 250.3 227.8 219.4 218.6

Palm o il 2.3 4.6 213.4 266.6 236.8 262.2 257.8 235.3 191.7 229.1 198.8 192.6 183.8

Soybean meal 4.1 10.4 176.5 185.6 244.5 182.7 227.5 294.0 273.7 301.3 280.3 270.1 270.6

Soybeans 2.0 8.0 163.7 196.8 215.3 188.5 208.1 244.6 220.0 243.9 224.6 214.4 221.0

Grains 6.9 .. 171.8 238.5 244.2 226.8 227.2 264.0 258.9 260.8 261.1 261.8 253.8

M aize 1.7 6.3 188.4 295.6 302.4 281.4 273.8 333.1 321.4 325.2 325.6 326.0 312.8

Rice, Thailand, 5% 2.9 8.4 170.8 189.7 196.7 189.5 203.6 198.5 195.1 196.8 195.0 195.4 194.9

Wheat, US, HRW 1.9 7.2 146.8 207.6 205.6 183.0 176.5 229.4 233.4 232.0 235.1 236.8 228.4

Other fo o d 12.4 .. 148.2 167.8 157.9 165.2 156.8 157.1 152.4 153.8 154.4 151.5 151.4

Bananas, US 2.3 8.5 144.0 160.6 163.2 174.5 162.4 159.2 156.7 160.0 158.6 154.9 156.6

Sugar, world 7.5 4.2 215.4 263.0 217.9 242.1 215.9 215.0 198.8 202.2 205.5 195.6 195.3

R aw materials 22.8 .. 166.3 206.7 165.3 176.5 169.3 156.6 158.9 158.3 160.0 156.5 160.1

Cotton ("A" Index) 5.9 1.7 187.6 273.5 161.6 182.0 163.4 152.5 148.7 152.4 148.5 146.5 151.0

Rubber, Singapore 4.8 11.8 245.6 324.1 227.0 258.9 241.3 199.6 208.1 204.2 215.3 199.9 209.0

Sawnwood, M alaysia 2.9 3.0 128.6 142.5 132.9 133.9 134.0 131.1 132.6 133.2 132.5 131.9 133.4

F ert ilizers 2.7 .. 187.2 267.0 259.2 260.1 270.0 256.9 249.9 258.1 256.0 247.1 246.6

Triple superphosphate 0.9 5.2 189.5 267.2 229.3 218.6 233.5 240.7 224.4 240.7 235.3 222.1 215.9

M etals and minerals 28.2 .. 179.6 205.5 174.0 185.7 175.4 163.9 171.1 167.6 170.0 167.3 176.1

Aluminum 7.9 2.0 114.5 126.5 106.6 114.8 104.4 101.6 105.5 108.7 104.0 102.7 109.9

Copper 9.3 12.6 204.8 240.0 216.4 226.1 214.5 210.1 215.1 219.8 219.1 209.6 216.5

Gold .. 13.3 275.3 352.8 375.3 380.3 362.5 372.4 386.1 392.2 392.6 387.0 378.7

Nickel 2.2 9.3 147.9 155.4 119.0 133.2 116.6 111.1 115.2 117.3 116.4 110.8 118.3

M emo:

C rude Oil (US$ ) .. 13.1 79.0 104.0 105.0 112.5 102.8 102.8 101.9 106.3 103.4 101.2 101.2

Table A.4 Commodity price indices(current US dollar index,index unless otherwise indicated; a/)

a/ The World Bank primary commodity price indices are computed from 1987-89 export values in US dollars

for low- and middle-income economies, rebased to 1990.

b/ Energy and gold prices are not included in the index.

February 20, 2013


Ex port v alu es

Dev elopin g cou n tries 13.6 29.8 22.5 3.6 10.7 -1.3 -9.6 19.8 2.7 3.0 -1.6 1.8East Asia and Pacific 15.1 30.9 19.7 6.3 7.5 19.1 -10.5 21.0 4.0 1.5 -1.8 5.0

China 19.5 31.6 20.1 8.1 -0.7 30.6 -9.8 22.6 2.4 2.1 -3.2 7.8Indonesia 9.0 35.8 29.0 -6.3 4.5 -19.6 -20.6 5.3 18.5 -3.2 2.5 -5.2Thailand 10.4 26.9 15.0 3.2 71.3 11.5 -9.0 13.9 0.7 1.9 2.9 -1.8

Europe and Central Asia 15.1 26.8 29.3 3.8 13.1 -19.8 -2.0 12.4 1.0 2.0 2.5 -5.5Russian Federation 16.0 32.7 30.0 1.7 6.5 -25.8 -9.9 21.8 2.7 3.9 0.1 -1.5Turkey 14.0 11.1 18.7 13.2 34.7 17.2 14.5 -12.5 0.9 -8.3 13.6 -18.3Poland 17.0 14.9 17.8 1.5 33.5 -17.3 6.8 32.5 3.7 2.3 -0.5 5.7

Latin America and Caribbean 8.3 28.1 22.4 1.6 12.9 -18.4 -0.6 14.1 -0.6 8.1 -4.0 -2.3Brazil 11.5 31.6 27.0 -4.7 -4.1 -26.2 -10.0 21.2 -2.9 9.9 0.3 -7.2Mexico 7.0 29.8 17.1 6.3 27.5 -6.9 -3.4 9.2 -1.2 9.6 -7.4 1.2Argentina 8.0 21.8 23.0 -2.8 0.3 -29.8 24.2 -5.9 -6.4 4.2 -0.7 -1.2

Middle East and North Africa 18.5 26.6 17.2 .. 10.8 -18.6 -19.2 .. 5.0 5.6 .. ..Saudi Arabia 18.3 34.7 42.2 .. 29.0 -8.2 -28.6 .. 15.9 0.7 .. ..Iran 21.8 33.4 29.8 .. -6.6 -61.0 -71.9 .. 14.4 14.3 .. ..Egypt 21.4 14.4 15.0 .. -17.3 -33.2 .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia 14.7 31.4 34.6 -4.4 -0.3 -11.5 -8.6 10.0 3.7 1.5 -4.9 3.7India 17.1 34.5 35.8 -4.4 -1.3 -13.8 -9.6 10.2 2.7 2.6 -6.1 4.5Pakistan 7.5 21.7 19.2 -2.2 26.2 18.4 15.1 -8.3 16.1 -11.6 3.8 -4.9Bangladesh 13.4 15.1 39.7 .. -18.7 -3.8 -5.7 .. 0.2 8.0 -3.8 ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 13.1 35.3 23.2 .. 37.3 -10.8 -29.6 .. 3.0 3.4 .. ..South Africa 9.0 30.1 19.1 -9.5 13.4 -32.3 -16.8 4.6 -13.8 11.3 -0.5 0.4Nigeria 20.7 49.1 36.6 .. 52.8 -0.8 -34.4 .. 0.9 3.3 .. ..

Ex port prices b,c

Dev elopin g cou n tries 5.3 9.8 14.1 -3.5 -4.1 -12.3 -5.5 5.3 1.0 0.3 -0.2 -0.2East Asia and Pacific 2.7 5.4 10.5 -3.1 -10.9 -3.2 -2.9 2.7 0.4 0.2 0.6 -0.7

China 1.8 3.9 9.9 -3.0 -12.2 -1.2 -3.6 2.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 -0.7Indonesia 7.5 14.5 17.6 -5.3 -12.7 -10.6 -4.6 10.9 0.3 1.7 0.0 0.9Thailand 2.8 9.2 5.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 2.1 0.5 0.4 -0.2 0.1

Europe and Central Asia 7.4 13.0 20.5 -6.4 0.9 -26.3 -19.3 5.5 2.1 -0.6 -1.7 2.6Russian Federation 10.3 17.7 25.8 -4.0 5.9 -31.5 -8.8 5.1 2.6 -1.3 -1.4 1.4Turkey 2.6 4.9 11.6 -4.0 0.1 -10.5 0.7 5.4 1.5 -0.3 -1.5 4.1Poland 2.1 -8.6 8.9 -11.0 -0.3 -25.1 -7.9 8.0 -1.8 1.2 1.2 3.0

Latin America and Caribbean 5.3 14.4 16.3 -4.7 -1.5 -14.7 -1.0 5.9 2.1 0.6 -1.8 0.7Brazil 4.1 12.6 15.9 -7.7 -10.8 -3.1 -19.8 -0.9 0.2 0.1 -0.5 0.8Mexico 4.0 12.2 14.4 -2.6 6.9 -21.8 8.9 8.9 3.5 0.3 -2.6 1.4Argentina 4.0 5.7 16.4 1.6 -6.9 14.6 10.0 5.2 0.7 0.6 0.2 -0.1

Middle East and North Africa 13.2 17.1 17.5 .. 45.0 5.0 39.7 .. -1.1 1.4 .. ..

Saudi Arabia 19.5 35.8 34.0 5.9 22.6 5.7 -42.9 38.7 6.5 8.3 .. ..Iran 15.9 26.1 29.7 0.3 17.8 -43.3 19.5 22.1 3.8 -1.3 .. ..Egypt 6.5 11.9 20.0 -3.1 -1.2 -17.6 -25.3 .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia 3.2 9.9 12.7 -5.5 -10.9 -5.9 -16.0 5.8 1.1 0.7 -0.7 0.6

India 3.3 10.1 13.6 -6.5 -12.2 -8.2 -17.7 6.9 0.8 1.2 -1.0 0.8Pakistan 5.8 18.3 19.9 4.7 15.1 11.3 -33.0 3.5 -0.8 1.1 -1.6 3.1Bangladesh 1.6 3.4 9.0 -2.4 -17.9 1.4 2.3 3.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 10.0 23.8 24.5 .. 16.1 -31.7 -3.0 .. 4.1 -2.7 .. ..

South Africa 8.6 26.4 18.3 -8.9 5.0 -22.5 -4.1 -27.4 0.9 -8.9 0.8 2.3Nigeria 17.4 27.9 30.9 0.8 34.7 -37.3 -17.5 34.2 6.1 0.9 .. ..

Table A.5 Developing countries ' merchandise export growth(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual

rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change /a)

/a Merchandise export (F.O.B), customs basis.

/b Implicit export unit values, U.S. Dollar basis.

/c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures individual trade

prices were updated using the median (mean) regional trade price for developing (developed) countries whenever

60% or more of reporters by trade weight reported.

February 20, 2013


I mport v alu esDev elopin g cou n tries 13.0 30.2 25.1 4.8 14.5 -11.8 -2.8 21.0 0.6 5.8 -0.8 -1.7

East Asia and Pacific 16.0 37.1 24.4 5.4 13.1 -12.1 -5.8 25.3 2.2 5.2 -0.6 -0.6China 20.3 39.0 25.2 4.7 5.8 -16.1 -0.9 24.2 0.9 5.0 -0.4 1.0Indonesia 15.2 40.4 30.8 8.3 18.1 -2.0 -33.9 56.3 19.8 7.3 -0.2 -8.1Thailand 12.2 37.1 25.0 8.2 53.9 2.7 -22.7 51.3 -1.4 15.8 -4.2 -2.5

Europe and Central Asia 14.0 26.0 30.0 3.0 20.5 -11.8 1.1 6.1 -0.3 3.0 1.7 -5.8Russian Federation 14.5 28.9 31.2 4.1 33.3 -17.8 -1.5 4.4 -2.4 6.7 -2.9 0.3Turkey 13.4 31.6 30.1 -1.6 12.6 -6.1 -13.1 12.6 5.0 -3.7 16.2 -15.5Poland 13.2 14.2 19.9 -1.5 33.4 -22.1 -0.9 26.5 3.6 1.2 -0.2 6.0

Latin America and Caribbean 7.5 29.1 21.9 3.6 13.5 -5.8 -14.6 25.1 -7.3 16.6 -5.8 -2.8Brazil 9.6 42.1 24.7 -1.0 -6.0 1.4 -39.8 60.7 -9.1 20.1 1.5 -2.9Mexico 6.6 28.5 16.5 5.8 24.9 -6.3 -10.7 26.3 -7.1 21.0 -9.1 -3.8Argentina 8.6 45.8 30.5 -7.0 -14.9 -15.3 4.2 8.2 -4.2 9.8 -6.0 -1.2

Middle East and North Africa 12.9 14.2 16.0 .. 3.2 29.8 -3.9 .. 2.6 0.2 .. ..Saudi Arabia 11.8 12.6 23.2 .. 54.7 16.1 -7.6 .. 1.6 2.9 19.9 ..Iran 13.0 33.4 44.4 .. -53.6 112.9 13.9 .. -0.7 -0.1 .. ..Egypt 12.9 17.8 11.5 .. 62.4 0.2 .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia 17.1 32.0 33.4 4.3 23.2 -41.8 30.6 34.1 1.1 2.9 -1.5 ..India 19.6 34.0 34.8 5.1 31.0 -46.4 34.3 38.1 1.2 2.4 -0.8 ..Pakistan 13.5 19.4 16.5 0.6 -14.5 7.3 0.8 -8.6 -0.8 -0.6 -9.4 ..Bangladesh 10.8 27.6 30.0 .. 10.4 -19.0 85.2 .. -0.8 .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 12.6 13.9 23.1 .. 9.1 1.2 1.2 .. 3.5 .. .. ..South Africa 10.3 23.8 24.5 1.7 12.1 -9.4 -6.6 2.1 2.0 -6.7 4.9 ..Nigeria 20.2 9.8 24.1 .. -10.0 15.0 -27.4 .. 21.5 .. .. ..

I mport prices b ,c

Dev elopin g cou n tries 3.9 7.8 13.3 -2.9 -5.9 -8.0 -9.9 4.1 0.3 0.1 1.0 -1.5East Asia and Pacific 3.0 7.7 13.2 -4.5 -8.7 -9.9 -12.8 5.9 -0.6 1.6 0.1 -1.5

China 3.3 9.1 13.6 -5.6 -10.0 -10.1 -14.1 7.8 -1.8 2.6 0.2 -1.9Indonesia 5.2 12.2 19.3 -5.0 -5.4 -19.3 -6.3 3.5 0.8 -0.6 0.2 -1.0Thailand 2.2 -0.1 6.0 3.5 0.9 1.4 -10.2 2.6 3.4 -0.4 -0.8 -0.4

Europe and Central Asia 4.2 10.0 12.6 -3.2 -5.4 -3.8 -12.0 5.5 1.1 -0.8 5.1 -5.4Russian Federation 2.2 5.6 10.7 -4.5 -13.7 -3.2 -10.3 5.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 1.9Turkey 7.5 21.2 12.7 0.7 17.0 -1.7 -11.9 13.3 2.8 -1.9 16.3 -17.0Poland 0.8 -6.4 7.6 -1.2 -4.1 -14.0 -14.9 -2.6 3.0 -5.5 6.3 0.4

Latin America and Caribbean 3.1 5.3 11.0 0.1 -2.4 0.4 -5.8 0.8 0.4 -0.8 0.7 0.5Brazil 4.3 3.9 14.2 0.9 1.7 -5.3 -9.3 7.2 2.7 -0.2 0.9 0.1Mexico 2.7 4.3 7.2 1.0 -1.6 0.0 2.2 2.6 0.8 -0.1 -0.2 0.8Argentina 0.7 5.3 9.7 2.6 6.5 40.9 -32.1 -13.0 -2.8 -2.5 1.5 0.4

Middle East and North Africa 4.5 6.3 10.0 .. -1.2 -2.2 -19.8 .. 0.4 -1.9 .. ..

Saudi Arabia 2.4 4.8 10.8 -4.8 -12.7 -0.8 -17.2 -0.8 0.0 0.1 -0.5 ..Iran 3.6 5.8 13.8 -6.7 -10.8 -6.7 -31.2 0.3 -0.3 -0.7 .. ..Egypt 3.4 6.5 15.9 -4.2 -9.1 -4.8 -26.0 .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia 7.3 14.5 20.9 -1.1 1.3 -22.0 0.3 6.9 2.2 -0.6 -0.7 0.6

India 6.8 16.0 21.7 -1.0 3.9 -26.5 8.0 6.2 2.6 -0.6 -1.4 0.7Pakistan 13.5 18.8 25.5 5.1 13.7 2.3 -47.3 27.2 1.9 2.4 0.1 2.7Bangladesh 3.0 6.1 14.4 -5.5 -15.4 4.2 -8.4 -2.4 -0.7 -0.8 .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 7.0 8.3 15.3 .. -9.1 -4.7 -7.1 .. 0.6 -1.4 .. ..

South Africa 14.0 7.9 18.9 10.6 -6.9 12.6 0.6 -17.0 0.6 -3.1 -3.7 1.2Nigeria 3.0 5.0 13.1 -4.5 -11.1 -6.2 -11.3 1.7 0.8 -0.3 .. ..

Table A.6 Developing countries ' merchandise import growth(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual

rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change /a)

/a Merchandise import (C.I.F.), customs basis.

/b Implicit import unit values, U.S. Dollar basis.

/c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures individual trade

prices were updated using the median (mean) regional trade price for developing (developed) countries whenever

60% or more of reporters by trade weight reported.

February 20, 2013

US$ bn. % GDP 2012 2012

2008 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sep Oct Nov Dec

World -168.7 -0.3 -174.3 -137.4 -247.8 -239.5 -363.5 -147.1 -220.3 -226.9 -69.1 -387.4 -265.6 -27.7

High - in come cou n tries a -418.9 -1.0 -290.8 -275.0 -303.8 -234.4 -287.8 -238.1 -205.4 -206.4 -164.9 -323.3 -155.8 -140.0Industrial countries -499.8 -1.2 -393.6 -484.3 -675.8 -638.7 -734.2 -637.5 -575.0 -608.2 -582.2 -722.1 -550.7 -551.8

United States -706.1 -5.0 -549.6 -690.5 -785.8 -790.0 -835.6 -796.4 -758.2 -769.6 -711.0 -814.4 -789.5 -704.9Japan 183.2 3.7 27.9 75.2 -32.5 -86.7 -66.1 -70.5 -99.4 -110.8 -122.2 -112.4 -104.1 -115.9Euro Area -19.6 -0.2 53.7 35.0 28.5 .. 109.7 161.6 191.5 .. 156.2 126.4 214.5 ..United Kingdom -73.6 -2.8 -130.5 -154.1 -161.8 .. -169.4 -178.3 -160.5 .. -165.5 -188.3 -165.7 ..

Other high income 80.9 4.2 -393.6 -484.3 -675.8 -638.7 -734.2 -637.5 -575.0 -608.2 -164.9 -323.3 -155.8 -140.0Hong Kong (China) 30.5 12.8 -29.0 -43.3 -54.4 -61.6 -51.2 -59.8 -65.5 -69.9 -66.8 -79.9 -70.4 -59.5Singapore 26.9 13.9 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.01Taiwan (China) 24.9 6.0 28.6 22.4 25.9 30.1 30.1 22.2 31.6 36.5 45.3 26.4 38.5 44.6

Dev elopin g cou n tries 293.5 1.8 114.3 131.9 46.4 -19.8 -88.1 80.0 -26.8 -44.2 84.5 -79.4 -133.1 79.9East Asia and Pacific 469.7 9.6 254.9 240.9 191.5 228.4 93.4 304.6 263.1 252.4 315.6 224.4 185.9 346.8

China 426.1 11.5 195.1 182.7 149.0 220.2 82.2 296.2 247.7 254.6 292.0 247.6 187.1 329.1Indonesia 0.6 0.1 19.5 22.1 26.0 -1.6 6.1 -3.6 4.8 -13.7 0.6 -19.3 -14.1 -7.6Thailand -0.1 0.0 18.9 10.4 -6.5 -18.2 -22.2 -17.6 -7.4 -25.4 -5.7 -38.1 -20.1 -18.0Malaysia 38.9 19.7 33.7 34.4 40.6 30.7 33.2 29.2 26.1 34.4 31.1 35.4 35.5 32.4

Europe and Central Asia .. .. 1.4 6.1 3.1 11.1 29.3 5.3 -2.1 11.8 14.9 5.7 14.1 15.5Russian Federation 102.4 6.0 110.7 154.3 197.6 193.4 211.7 188.0 175.9 197.9 195.0 193.9 204.4 195.4Turkey -41.3 -5.7 -38.3 -71.4 -106.0 -84.2 -95.2 -85.5 -72.0 -84.1 -71.5 -76.5 -92.7 -83.1Poland -29.0 -5.6 -91.1 -97.7 -137.5 -101.1 -133.0 -108.0 -86.2 -77.1 -84.4 -72.5 -75.4 -83.5Czech Republic -6.6 -3.0 8.0 6.6 10.7 15.8 16.0 13.2 16.8 17.1 17.1 19.4 18.9 13.1

Latin America and Caribbean -21.6 -0.5 -22.4 -35.1 -38.6 -58.5 -45.8 -80.2 -41.2 -66.8 -2.4 -84.4 -61.5 -54.7Brazil -28.2 -1.7 25.3 19.9 29.4 19.7 27.3 7.6 28.9 14.7 36.1 20.2 17.6 6.4Mexico -15.8 -1.6 -4.7 -3.0 -1.4 0.1 0.4 -0.2 6.9 -6.6 18.4 -18.4 -10.0 8.7Argentina 7.6 2.6 17.1 11.5 10.0 12.8 14.9 10.6 14.2 11.6 12.4 9.2 12.9 12.8Colombia -6.7 -3.0 0.0 -0.7 2.4 .. 4.8 -2.6 0.6 .. 9.6 1.2 -0.7 ..

Middle East and North Africa .. .. 17.1 52.2 64.5 .. 68.9 25.5 8.9 .. 29.0 50.0 .. ..Saudi Arabia 132.9 27.3 80.6 128.9 203.0 .. 235.2 221.5 194.2 .. 216.3 214.6 .. ..Iran 0.0 0.0 29.5 39.4 41.4 .. 59.2 12.5 -21.2 .. -12.0 0.6 .. ..Egypt -1.3 -0.8 -21.7 -26.3 -28.4 .. -37.4 -40.3 .. .. .. .. .. ..Algeria 0.04 0.03 4.6 16.2 26.3 .. 16.0 3.9 2.1 .. -0.8 -3.3 .. ..

South Asia .. .. -117.1 -155.7 -204.4 -244.7 -264.0 -196.0 -241.3 -277.4 -259.7 -261.0 -296.6 -274.5India .. .. -91.5 -121.7 -161.6 -198.8 -217.9 -154.0 -195.1 -228.3 -215.1 -213.6 -244.0 -227.2Pakistan -15.7 -9.8 -14.2 -16.6 -18.8 -19.6 -20.3 -20.0 -19.3 -18.8 -17.8 -20.6 -19.4 -16.4Bangladesh .. .. -5.3 -8.5 -9.5 .. -10.6 -9.1 -14.6 .. -14.6 -12.6 .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa -29.9 -3.0 -13.8 33.0 40.9 .. 42.2 30.0 -3.3 .. 0.5 0.0 .. ..South Africa -21.0 -7.5 -2.2 1.2 -2.9 -13.7 -8.0 -14.3 -16.5 -16.1 -25.5 -19.0 -12.5 -16.9Nigeria 20.3 9.3 8.9 30.3 47.3 .. 56.4 54.3 47.5 .. 51.1 43.5 .. ..

Memo:OECD .. .. -421.4 -543.4 -772.5 -718.0 -822.5 -717.5 -641.7 -690.3 -635.1 -814.2 -644.8 -612.0Developing excl. China .. .. -80.2 -48.7 -99.8 -239.0 -166.5 -215.5 -273.6 -300.5 -206.6 -326.3 -308.2 -266.9Developing oil exporters 191.2 .. 202.2 337.6 435.0 367.2 454.2 351.9 307.9 355.0 383.1 325.0 359.9 380.1Developing non-oil exporters .. .. -89.0 -207.8 -391.9 -389.2 -546.0 -273.1 -336.2 -401.6 -301.0 -406.2 -487.7 -311.0

CAB

Table A.7 Merchandise trade balances(Billion US dollars; annual rates)

a/ Seasonally adjusted

February 20, 2013

Weights Average 2012 2012

1995 2000-09 2010 2011 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sep Oct Nov Dec

World 100.0 94.0 5.8 0.9 -5.1 -3.7 -6.4 -6.6 -3.7 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1

High - in come cou n tries 78.3 .. 8.5 6.5 -1.2 0.6 -3.3 -3.2 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.0 -0.7

Industrial countries 70.6 .. 8.6 6.5 -1.2 0.6 -3.3 -3.3 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.0 -0.7

United States (SDR/USD) 15.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Japan 7.4 112.0 6.7 10.1 -0.1 3.8 1.9 -1.1 -4.9 0.7 -1.1 -2.5 -3.3

Euro Area 29.5 .. -4.7 5.0 -7.6 -4.1 .. .. .. 3.7 0.8 -1.1 2.3

United Kingdom 5.6 0.6 -0.9 3.8 -1.1 -1.9 -3.0 -1.8 2.2 2.5 -0.2 -0.7 1.1

Other high income 7.7 101.4 3.8 5.6 -0.5 -1.1 -2.2 -1.8 3.0 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.2

Hong Kong (China) 3.7 7.8 -0.2 -0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Singapore 2.3 1.6 6.7 8.4 0.6 1.0 -1.9 -1.7 5.3 1.4 0.6 0.0 0.3

Taiwan (China) 2.1 33.0 4.9 7.2 -0.6 -1.3 -2.7 -2.3 3.8 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.3

Dev elopin g cou n tries 21.7 115.5 5.1 -0.5 -6.0 -4.7 -7.1 -7.5 -4.8 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0

East Asia and Pacific 7.5 100.4 8.2 0.3 -4.8 -2.2 -5.4 -6.8 -4.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1

China 2.7 7.9 0.9 4.7 2.5 4.3 2.7 1.0 1.8 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.0

Indonesia 1.1 9360.6 14.3 3.6 -6.4 -1.8 -7.4 -9.5 -6.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2

Thailand 1.3 38.9 8.2 4.1 -1.9 -1.4 -3.3 -3.9 1.1 1.4 1.0 -0.1 0.2

Malaysia 1.4 3.7 9.4 5.3 -0.9 -0.4 -3.1 -3.2 3.1 1.2 0.8 -0.1 0.1

Europe and Central Asia 4.3 94.5 -5.2 -29.4 -29.8 -48.7 -41.0 -28.5 -2.3 -1.0 -1.0 -0.3 -0.1

Russian Federation 1.5 28.6 4.6 3.3 -5.3 -2.9 -9.9 -8.7 0.5 1.8 0.9 -0.8 2.2

Turkey .. 1.3 3.2 -10.3 -6.7 -12.2 -13.3 -3.7 2.5 -0.2 -0.1 0.5 0.3

Poland 0.5 3.5 3.4 1.8 -8.9 -10.7 -17.1 -11.0 3.6 2.8 1.4 -1.7 3.1

Czech Republic 0.5 26.6 -0.2 8.0 -9.6 -6.9 -14.2 -13.8 -3.2 4.8 0.1 -2.7 3.0

Latin America and Caribbean 5.5 142.6 4.7 1.7 0.4 1.0 -0.8 -0.8 2.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 0.6

Brazil 1.1 2.3 13.6 5.1 -14.3 -5.7 -18.7 -19.4 -12.6 0.1 -0.1 -1.7 -0.6

Mexico 1.7 10.8 6.9 1.6 -5.5 -7.1 -13.4 -6.5 5.4 1.9 0.4 -1.4 1.6

Argentina 0.4 2.7 -4.7 -5.2 -9.3 -7.6 -8.2 -9.7 -11.4 -1.3 -1.2 -1.5 -1.7

Colombia 0.3 2329.3 13.6 2.8 2.8 4.3 0.6 -0.1 6.4 0.3 -0.2 -0.8 1.6

Middle East and North Africa 1.7 163.8 0.4 0.0 -9.3 -7.5 -9.9 -9.9 -9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Saudi Arabia 0.8 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Iran 0.4 .. 0.4 0.0 -9.6 -7.7 -10.2 -10.2 -10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Egypt 0.3 5.2 -1.4 -5.2 -2.1 -2.7 -1.5 -2.0 -2.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -1.0

Algeria 0.3 73.4 -1.8 1.1 -5.9 -2.8 -4.9 -9.4 -6.1 2.2 0.3 -0.4 1.6

South Asia 1.2 107.4 3.1 -2.1 -11.5 -9.4 -14.8 -14.6 -6.9 1.2 1.8 -2.3 0.2

India 0.8 45.5 5.9 -2.0 -12.6 -9.9 -17.3 -17.0 -6.2 1.9 2.7 -3.2 0.3

Pakistan 0.2 62.4 -4.1 -1.3 -7.5 -5.6 -7.4 -8.2 -8.8 -0.2 -0.9 -0.6 -1.3

Bangladesh 0.1 62.3 -0.8 -6.0 -9.5 -13.8 -10.4 -8.7 -4.9 -0.3 0.5 -0.1 1.2

Sri Lanka 0.1 99.8 1.7 2.2 -13.4 -7.0 -15.5 -16.9 -13.5 0.4 1.9 -0.9 1.7

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.5 117.9 -7.7 -8.8 -2.8 0.4 0.0 -0.7 -0.3

South Africa 0.6 7.7 15.1 0.8 -11.6 -9.7 -16.4 -13.5 -6.8 0.1 -4.5 -1.8 2.3

Nigeria 0.3 124.9 -0.9 -3.1 -1.8 -3.6 -2.5 -3.1 1.9 0.6 0.4 -0.2 0.2

Memo:

OECD 73.7 .. 8.6 6.4 -1.2 0.5 -3.4 -3.2 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.0 -0.6

Developing excl. China 19.0 118.7 5.1 -0.5 -6.1 -4.7 -7.2 -7.5 -4.8 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0

Developing oil exporters 2.8 171.6 5.4 0.2 -5.3 -3.3 -6.0 -6.8 -5.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0

Developing non-oil exporters 19.0 108.8 0.6 -10.1 -14.7 -22.1 -21.1 -15.1 -0.7 -0.1 -0.2 -0.6 0.3

Table A.8 Ex ch an ge Rates (USD/L CU)(annual percent change except m o nthly data which is change o ver prev io us m o nth a/)

February 20, 2013


World 2.6 2.8 4.0 3.2 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.2

High - in come cou n tries 1.9 1.6 2.7 2.0 2.8 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.2Industrial countries 1.9 1.5 2.6 1.9 2.7 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2

United States 2.5 1.6 3.2 2.1 2.8 1.9 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.2 1.7 1.7Japan -0.3 -0.7 -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1Euro Area 2.0 1.5 2.6 2.3 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.1United Kindgom 1.8 3.3 4.5 2.8 3.4 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.2 2.6 2.6 2.7

Other high income 1.9 1.5 2.6 1.9 2.7 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2Hong Kong (China) -0.5 2.3 5.3 4.1 5.2 4.2 3.2 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8Singapore 1.4 2.8 5.2 4.6 4.8 5.2 4.2 4.0 4.7 4.1 3.6 4.3Taiwan (China) 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.9 1.2 1.6 3.0 1.9 3.0 2.4 1.6 1.5

Dev elopin g cou n tries 4.7 5.8 7.1 6.0 5.3 4.7 4.6 4.8 5.2 4.8 4.5 4.3East Asia and Pacific 2.0 3.5 5.5 2.8 3.8 3.0 2.6 2.5 1.9 2.4 2.4 2.9

China 1.6 3.3 5.4 2.6 3.8 2.9 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.7 2.0 2.5Indonesia 9.5 5.1 5.4 4.3 3.7 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.6 4.3 4.3Thailand 2.3 3.3 3.8 3.0 3.3 2.6 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.3 2.7 3.6Malaysia 2.2 1.6 3.2 1.7 2.2 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2

Europe and Central Asia 12.5 6.9 7.9 7.0 2.4 1.4 2.3 2.9 2.6 2.9 3.1 2.8Russian Federation 20.5 6.9 8.4 5.1 3.9 3.9 6.0 6.5 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.5Turkey 10.4 8.6 6.5 8.9 10.5 9.4 9.1 6.7 9.2 7.8 6.4 6.1Poland 3.9 2.7 4.2 3.7 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.0 3.8 3.5 2.9 2.6Czech Republic 2.7 1.4 1.9 3.3 3.6 3.4 3.3 2.8 3.4 3.4 2.8 2.4

Latin America and Caribbean 6.5 6.1 6.8 6.4 5.0 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.3Brazil 6.7 5.0 6.6 5.4 5.7 5.0 5.3 5.6 5.3 5.5 5.5 5.8Mexico 6.2 4.2 3.4 4.1 3.8 3.9 4.6 4.1 4.8 4.6 4.2 3.6Argentina 7.7 10.5 9.8 10.0 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.6 10.0 10.2 10.6 10.8Colombia 6.7 2.3 3.4 3.2 3.5 3.4 3.1 2.7 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.4

Middle East and North Africa 7.7 7.6 12.5 16.1 7.7 7.7 6.6 5.3 6.3 5.9 5.5 6.2Saudi Arabia 1.8 5.3 5.0 4.5 5.4 5.1 3.8 3.8 3.5 3.7 3.9 3.9Iran 15.7 10.1 20.6 25.3 21.5 23.0 28.4 33.1 29.6 32.1 35.9 ..Algeria 3.2 3.9 4.5 8.9 9.0 9.5 8.0 9.1 8.8 9.9 8.1 9.1

South Asia 5.8 11.7 9.3 9.3 7.2 9.2 9.4 8.3 9.0 8.3 8.4 8.5India 5.5 12.0 8.8 9.4 7.2 10.2 9.8 10.2 9.4 9.4 9.8 11.3Pakistan 20.3 12.9 11.9 9.7 10.6 11.6 9.2 7.5 8.8 7.7 6.9 7.9Bangladesh 5.9 8.1 10.3 8.7 10.6 9.2 7.8 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.4 7.7Sri Lanka 10.5 6.2 6.7 7.5 3.9 7.4 9.5 9.2 9.1 9.0 9.5 9.1

Sub-Saharan Africa 7.9 7.2 8.5 7.9 5.9 6.3 5.9 5.1 5.5 5.4 5.6 4.8South Africa 6.0 4.3 5.0 5.4 6.1 5.7 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.6 ..Nigeria 11.7 13.7 10.8 11.7 12.0 12.8 12.0 11.5 11.4 11.7 12.2 ..

Memo:OECD 2.1 1.7 2.8 2.1 2.8 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.2 2.2Developing excl. China 7.4 7.2 8.0 7.8 5.3 4.7 4.6 4.8 5.2 4.9 4.6 4.4Developing oil exporters 9.4 7.2 8.7 8.4 4.8 4.8 6.2 5.3 6.4 5.5 6.4 4.3Developing non-oil exporters 3.3 5.2 6.4 5.0 5.3 4.7 4.1 4.7 4.7 4.4 4.4 4.4Asian high tech exporters .. .. ..

Table A.9 Global Inflation(annual percent change; seasonally adjusted a/)

a/ The CPI aggregates are the medians of the growth rates.

February 20, 2013

Weights 2012 20121995 2010 2011 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sep Oct Nov Dec

World 100.0High - in come cou n tries b 82.8 -1.45 -1.45 -1.45 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Industrial countries 80.6 -1.44 -1.44 -1.44 .. .. .. ..United States (US Federal funds rate) 25.5 0.18 0.10 0.14 0.10 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16Japan (Discount Rate) 18.4 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30Euro Area (Eurosys main refi rate-minimum bid) 24.5 1.00 1.25 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 .. .. .. .. ..United Kingdom (Clearing bank's base rate) 3.9 0.50 0.50 0.50 3.50 4.50 5.50 6.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

Other high income 2.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Hong Kong (Discount rate) 0.5 3.13 3.13 3.13 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50Singapore (MAS Interbank 1 month rate) 0.3 1.15 1.15 1.15 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.31 0.31 0.33 0.31Taiwan (Interbank swap overnight rate) 0.9 1.93 1.93 1.93 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39

Dev elopin g cou n tries 17.2East Asia and Pacific 4.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

China (Lending rate, 6m to 1y) 2.4 7.18 7.18 7.18 6.56 6.50 6.02 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00Indonesia (Interbank 3m rate) 0.7 9.18 9.18 9.18 4.54 4.39 4.86 4.92 4.92 4.90 4.91 4.94Thailand (14day Bilateral Repo Rate) 0.6 1.47 2.95 2.96 3.06 3.00 3.00 2.79 3.00 2.88 2.75 2.75Malaysia (Interbank overnight rate) 0.3 4.48 5.48 6.48 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97

Europe and Central Asia 3.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Russian Federation (Discount (Refin.)) 1.2 10.87 10.87 10.87 8.00 8.00 8.05 8.25 8.14 8.25 8.25 8.25Turkey (Interbank 1 week average) 0.6 17.05 17.05 17.05 10.03 10.40 6.87 5.61 5.68 5.73 5.54 5.55Poland (Interbank 2 week) 0.4 5.88 5.88 5.88 4.46 4.58 4.73 4.51 4.73 4.70 4.57 4.27Czech Republic (Repo rate 2 weeks) 0.2 3.49 3.49 3.49 0.75 0.75 0.50 0.12 0.50 0.25 0.06 0.05

Latin America and Caribbean 5.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Brazil (SELIC Target rate) 2.4 12.45 12.45 12.45 10.41 8.98 7.88 7.28 7.50 7.34 7.25 7.25Mexico (CETES 91 day closing) 1.0 7.88 7.88 7.88 4.43 4.40 4.33 4.34 4.27 4.35 4.46 4.22Argentina (30 Day deposit) 0.9 11.43 11.43 11.43 12.58 11.55 12.08 13.39 11.94 13.26 13.12 13.78Colombia (Fixed Term Deposit) 0.3 9.68 9.68 9.68 5.22 5.45 5.40 5.30 5.34 5.26 5.41 5.24

Middle East and North Africa 1.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Saudi Arabia (Interbank 3m rate) 0.4 2.89 2.89 2.89 0.83 0.91 0.95 0.98 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.99Egypt (IMF discount rate) 0.2 10.17 10.17 10.17 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50Algeria (IMF discount rate) 0.1 4.00 4.00 4.00 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia 1.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..India (Bank deposit 365+ days) 1.2 7.90 7.90 7.90 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00Pakistan (Repo 7-15 day) 0.2 10.63 10.63 10.63 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Bangladesh (Bank Rate) 0.1 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00Sri Lanka (Central bank repurchase) 0.0 10.50 10.50 10.50 7.32 7.74 7.75 7.69 7.75 7.75 7.75 7.58

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..South Africa (Repo rate) 0.5 11.61 11.61 11.61 5.50 5.50 5.11 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00Nigeria (IMF discount rate) 0.1 9.85 9.85 9.85 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.10 Global Central Bank Interest Rates(percentage a/)

a/ Monthly figures are simple averages of the daily figures; except for the latest month, the figure reported for the

latest month is the value on the date the data has been reported (which is the last daily observation one day

before the note becomes available).

February 20, 2013


World 91 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..High - in come cou n tries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Industrial countries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..United States 89 99 111 121 119 118 122 122 119 118 114 116Japan 84 68 68 63 61 58 58 58 58 57 57 59Euro Area 99 299 332 280 270 241 245 252 269 268 256 272United Kindgom 88 78 84 84 75 73 77 81 79 80 78 81

Other high incomea .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Hong Kong (China) .. 156 160 151 139 135 138 151 154 160 163 167Singapore 80 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5Taiwan (China) 72 95 104 95 80 77 76 79 81 80 79 83

Dev elopin g cou n tries a,b 156 233 245 229 202 189 189 199 196 199 197 206East Asia and Pacificc 123 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

China 118 218 211 196 200 190 184 202 164 174 178 187Indonesia 207 582 683 683 488 467 471 490 431 445 444 437Thailand 188 306 382 426 298 305 311 328 289 292 290 308Malaysia 116 193 223 230 202 199 203 207 216 221 218 219

Europe and Central Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Russian Federation 525 356 406 349 376 332 334 339 352 347 329 349Turkey 87 147 131 128 97 96 108 122 105 109 113 121Poland 168 175 187 150 128 119 124 137 142 144 141 156Czech Republic 354 601 622 518 480 440 442 443 537 540 495 491

Latin America and Caribbean 203 394 397 360 353 315 312 317 331 332 322 335Brazil 199 419 405 342 368 309 298 297 310 306 296 305Mexico 193 315 349 369 316 313 337 357 365 379 369 391Argentina 104 161 182 90 116 68 58 59 64 63 58 71

Middle East and North Africa .. 220 237 217 197 184 189 194 193 191 188 198Egypt 213 426 309 316 220 224 247 254 257 256 242 230

South Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..India 198 348 326 280 229 208 212 233 248 263 255 266Pakistan 241 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Bangladesh .. 670 524 378 426 485 432 415 465 448 418 409Sri Lanka 229 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..South Africa 216 293 325 320 282 271 277 278 266 257 259 272

Table A.11 Stock Markets(indices, year 2000=100)

a/ Average for Developing countries and Other High Income countries is for the period 1995-2002

Note: Quarterly and Monthly data is constructed from daily data by taking the last observation for the month.

Annual data is the average over 12 months.

b/ Aggregates defined by IFC/S&P

c/ East Asia Pacific including South Asia

Source: World - Morgan Stanley Capital International Index; USA - Wilshire 5000; Japan - Topix; Euro Area - S&P

EUROPE 350; UK - Standard and Poor's 350; Hong Kong - Hang Seng Composite; Singapore - Singapore Stock

Exchange Composite Index; All Others are IFC/S&P Indices

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