Since 1989, Poland has experienced stable economic growth ... · Category Measure Population...

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Transcript of Since 1989, Poland has experienced stable economic growth ... · Category Measure Population...

Page 1: Since 1989, Poland has experienced stable economic growth ... · Category Measure Population 38,434,691 GDP per capita (2014) US$14,343 Unemployment rate (Feb 16) 10.3% Currency Polish
Page 2: Since 1989, Poland has experienced stable economic growth ... · Category Measure Population 38,434,691 GDP per capita (2014) US$14,343 Unemployment rate (Feb 16) 10.3% Currency Polish

Since 1989, Poland has experienced stable economic growth and was

able to avoid recession during the Global Financial Crisis.

The wine market is medium sized but growing, with all styles currently

experiencing growth

Per capita wine consumption is 4.4 litres/year and on the rise

In Australian exports, red wines have the largest share, while whites are

growing

The $2.50 to $4.99 price segment holds the most export value, while the

middle to high price points are experiencing the largest growth

Australian Shiraz and Chardonnay exports are growing

Supermarkets are the preferred off-trade channel, while discounters are

growing

Page 3: Since 1989, Poland has experienced stable economic growth ... · Category Measure Population 38,434,691 GDP per capita (2014) US$14,343 Unemployment rate (Feb 16) 10.3% Currency Polish
Page 4: Since 1989, Poland has experienced stable economic growth ... · Category Measure Population 38,434,691 GDP per capita (2014) US$14,343 Unemployment rate (Feb 16) 10.3% Currency Polish

Category Measure

Population 38,434,691

GDP per capita (2014) US$14,343

Unemployment rate (Feb 16) 10.3%

Currency Polish złoty

Exchange rate (AUD:PLN, Mar 16) 2.9

Member of the EU since 2004

Poland has experienced strong growth since the fall of communism in 1989 and was the only European country not to fall into recession after the 2008 global financial crisis.

Source: OANDA, Austrade, World Bank

Page 5: Since 1989, Poland has experienced stable economic growth ... · Category Measure Population 38,434,691 GDP per capita (2014) US$14,343 Unemployment rate (Feb 16) 10.3% Currency Polish

Key economic indicators

Source: IMF

Page 6: Since 1989, Poland has experienced stable economic growth ... · Category Measure Population 38,434,691 GDP per capita (2014) US$14,343 Unemployment rate (Feb 16) 10.3% Currency Polish

Volume of alcoholic beverages over time in Poland

Source: Euromonitor

Key points

• Consumption of spirits is

declining due to the

introduction of a 15% excise

tax in January 2014

• Beer consumption is starting

to flatten out, except for craft

beers which are a relatively

small part of the market

Page 7: Since 1989, Poland has experienced stable economic growth ... · Category Measure Population 38,434,691 GDP per capita (2014) US$14,343 Unemployment rate (Feb 16) 10.3% Currency Polish
Page 8: Since 1989, Poland has experienced stable economic growth ... · Category Measure Population 38,434,691 GDP per capita (2014) US$14,343 Unemployment rate (Feb 16) 10.3% Currency Polish

Polish per capita wine consumption over time

Source: Euromonitor, IWSR

Key points

• Consumption continues to

increase as mid-range priced

wine becomes more available

through numerous retailers

• Cheaper wine has become

widely available through

discounters, who are

estimated to sell almost half of

all wine in Poland

• A wider range of inexpensive

brands are also being offered

by specialists, making wine

more affordable for more

Polish households

Page 9: Since 1989, Poland has experienced stable economic growth ... · Category Measure Population 38,434,691 GDP per capita (2014) US$14,343 Unemployment rate (Feb 16) 10.3% Currency Polish

Wine consumption frequency in Poland, 2015

Source: Wine Intelligence

Page 10: Since 1989, Poland has experienced stable economic growth ... · Category Measure Population 38,434,691 GDP per capita (2014) US$14,343 Unemployment rate (Feb 16) 10.3% Currency Polish

Source: Euromonitor

Total volume and value of wine in Poland

Rate Value Volume

% change 2014-15 4% 4%

5 year CAGR 5% 4%

Page 11: Since 1989, Poland has experienced stable economic growth ... · Category Measure Population 38,434,691 GDP per capita (2014) US$14,343 Unemployment rate (Feb 16) 10.3% Currency Polish

Source: GTA, Euromonitor

Top 10 Polish imports by volume, MAT November Key points

• Germany is the number one

origin of still wine, although

some of this volume is made

up of transhipments going

through Germany to Poland

• Wine from Italy enjoys

popularity thanks to Italian

food being a favourite for

Polish diners

Page 12: Since 1989, Poland has experienced stable economic growth ... · Category Measure Population 38,434,691 GDP per capita (2014) US$14,343 Unemployment rate (Feb 16) 10.3% Currency Polish

Source: IWSR, Euromonitor

Consumption share by imported country of origin, 2014Key points

• The international category

contains wines which have

more than one country of

origin and blended in Poland

• Based on import data

(previous slide), it is assumed

that international wines

primarily contain wine from

Germany, Bulgaria, Italy, and

Spain

• A portion of these wines are

discounter “private labels” sold

in their own stores

Page 13: Since 1989, Poland has experienced stable economic growth ... · Category Measure Population 38,434,691 GDP per capita (2014) US$14,343 Unemployment rate (Feb 16) 10.3% Currency Polish

Volume share of wine styles in Poland, 2015 Change in volume

Source: Euromonitor

Page 14: Since 1989, Poland has experienced stable economic growth ... · Category Measure Population 38,434,691 GDP per capita (2014) US$14,343 Unemployment rate (Feb 16) 10.3% Currency Polish

Source: Euromonitor

Volume of wine styles over time in Poland

Key points

• Still wine is generally fuelling

the growth of the wine market

and is becoming a regularly

purchased item among Polish

consumers

• Rosé has the fastest growth

rates, although off a small

base, and is especially

popular as a dessert wine and

amongst female consumers

• Red wine is slightly

outperforming white due to the

taste preference of consumers

and perceived health benefits.

However, there tends to be a

larger selection of whites in

stores

Page 15: Since 1989, Poland has experienced stable economic growth ... · Category Measure Population 38,434,691 GDP per capita (2014) US$14,343 Unemployment rate (Feb 16) 10.3% Currency Polish

Red vs white volume by price point, off-trade, 2015

Source: Euromonitor

Key points

• The middle price points are

largely seen as having the

best price-to-quality ratio by

consumers

• PLN10 to PLN12.09 holds the

largest share for red wines,

while the next price point up,

PLN12.1 to PLN18.59, is the

largest for whites

Page 16: Since 1989, Poland has experienced stable economic growth ... · Category Measure Population 38,434,691 GDP per capita (2014) US$14,343 Unemployment rate (Feb 16) 10.3% Currency Polish

Red vs white volume change by price point, off-trade, 2015

Source: Euromonitor

Page 17: Since 1989, Poland has experienced stable economic growth ... · Category Measure Population 38,434,691 GDP per capita (2014) US$14,343 Unemployment rate (Feb 16) 10.3% Currency Polish

Volume by channel, 2015

Volume change by channel, 2015

Source: Euromonitor

Key points

• Both channels are growing at

similar rates

• The small share of on-trade

sales is a reflection on the lack

of an established tradition of

buying wine at foodservice

outlets, where beer and spirits

are the most common choice

• Also putting off on-trade

consumers are mark-ups

which can reach up to 300%

Page 18: Since 1989, Poland has experienced stable economic growth ... · Category Measure Population 38,434,691 GDP per capita (2014) US$14,343 Unemployment rate (Feb 16) 10.3% Currency Polish
Page 19: Since 1989, Poland has experienced stable economic growth ... · Category Measure Population 38,434,691 GDP per capita (2014) US$14,343 Unemployment rate (Feb 16) 10.3% Currency Polish

Source: Wine Australia

Australian wine exports to Poland

Page 20: Since 1989, Poland has experienced stable economic growth ... · Category Measure Population 38,434,691 GDP per capita (2014) US$14,343 Unemployment rate (Feb 16) 10.3% Currency Polish

Source: Wine Australia

Export volume by container type

Page 21: Since 1989, Poland has experienced stable economic growth ... · Category Measure Population 38,434,691 GDP per capita (2014) US$14,343 Unemployment rate (Feb 16) 10.3% Currency Polish

Australian wine export value

to Poland by wine style, 2015Value change

Source: Wine Australia

Page 22: Since 1989, Poland has experienced stable economic growth ... · Category Measure Population 38,434,691 GDP per capita (2014) US$14,343 Unemployment rate (Feb 16) 10.3% Currency Polish

Value changeExport value by price point, 2015

Source: Wine Australia

Page 23: Since 1989, Poland has experienced stable economic growth ... · Category Measure Population 38,434,691 GDP per capita (2014) US$14,343 Unemployment rate (Feb 16) 10.3% Currency Polish

Source: Wine Australia

Top 10 exported bottled varietals by value, 2015

Page 24: Since 1989, Poland has experienced stable economic growth ... · Category Measure Population 38,434,691 GDP per capita (2014) US$14,343 Unemployment rate (Feb 16) 10.3% Currency Polish

Key points

• As with total exports, the

$2.50 to $4.99 Shiraz segment

has the largest share of value

and is growing

• Although the $10 and over

segment is declining, the

$7.50 to $9.99 segment is

experiencing encouraging

growth

2015 Shiraz export value to Poland by price point

Change in value

Source: Wine Australia

Page 25: Since 1989, Poland has experienced stable economic growth ... · Category Measure Population 38,434,691 GDP per capita (2014) US$14,343 Unemployment rate (Feb 16) 10.3% Currency Polish

Key points

• Currently, there is no bottled

Chardonnay exported to

Poland under $2.49 a litre

• Most price points, except

$7.50 to $9.99, are growing

strongly

2015 Chardonnay export value by

price point

Source: Wine Australia

Change in value

Page 26: Since 1989, Poland has experienced stable economic growth ... · Category Measure Population 38,434,691 GDP per capita (2014) US$14,343 Unemployment rate (Feb 16) 10.3% Currency Polish

Key points

• The $2.50 to $4.99 segment

has grown well from the year

before

• All higher price segments

were not recorded in the

previous period, with $7.50 to

$9.99 experiencing the most

absolute growth

Source: Wine Australia

2015 Sauvignon Blanc export value

to Poland by price point

Change in value

Page 27: Since 1989, Poland has experienced stable economic growth ... · Category Measure Population 38,434,691 GDP per capita (2014) US$14,343 Unemployment rate (Feb 16) 10.3% Currency Polish

Key points

• The largest increase has been

in the $5 to $7.49 segment of

Merlot, which increased by

5299% in value

• The $7.50 to $9.99 segment

has also grown from zero

value the year before

• In 2015, there was no Merlot

exported at $10.00 a litre and

above

Source: Wine Australia

2015 Merlot export value to Poland

by price point

Change in value

Page 28: Since 1989, Poland has experienced stable economic growth ... · Category Measure Population 38,434,691 GDP per capita (2014) US$14,343 Unemployment rate (Feb 16) 10.3% Currency Polish

Key points

• Cabernet Sauvignon at $10.00

and above has increased by

364% from the previous year

• There has been a decline in

the market between $4.99 and

$10.00

Source: Wine Australia

2015 Cabernet Sauvignon export

value to Poland by price point

Change in value

Page 29: Since 1989, Poland has experienced stable economic growth ... · Category Measure Population 38,434,691 GDP per capita (2014) US$14,343 Unemployment rate (Feb 16) 10.3% Currency Polish

Varietal Price Point Value 2015 Change % change

Chardonnay $2.50 to $4.99 550,828$ 291,417$ 112%

Chardonnay blends $5.00 to $7.49 180,306$ 91,715$ 104%

Shiraz blends $2.50 to $4.99 703,265$ 86,237$ 14%

Sauvignon Blanc $2.50 to $4.99 159,511$ 65,417$ 70%

Shiraz blends $2.49 and under 58,650$ 58,650$ +++

Shiraz $2.50 to $4.99 240,602$ 44,637$ 23%

Shiraz $7.50 to $9.99 53,025$ 32,481$ 158%

Merlot $5.00 to $7.49 24,837$ 24,377$ +++

Sauvignon Blanc blends $7.50 to $9.99 17,820$ 17,820$ +++

Sangiovese $7.50 to $9.99 15,000$ 15,000$ +++

Cabernet Sauvignon blends $10.00 and over 11,510$ 11,510$ +++

Riesling $5.00 to $7.49 14,755$ 10,595$ 255%

Cabernet Sauvignon $2.50 to $4.99 115,714$ 7,878$ 7%

Merlot $2.50 to $4.99 23,897$ 7,239$ 43%

Cabernet Sauvignon $5.00 to $7.49 5,950$ 5,950$ +++

Sauvignon Blanc $5.00 to $7.49 5,950$ 5,950$ +++

Shiraz blends $7.50 to $9.99 5,741$ 5,741$ +++

Pinot Noir $7.50 to $9.99 4,800$ 4,800$ +++

Riesling $10.00 and over 4,835$ 3,915$ 426%

Chardonnay $10.00 and over 9,120$ 3,844$ 73%

Semillon blends $10.00 and over 2,580$ 2,580$ +++

Semillon $10.00 and over 2,350$ 2,350$ +++

Riesling $7.50 to $9.99 2,033$ 2,033$ +++

Cabernet Sauvignon blends $2.50 to $4.99 2,016$ 2,016$ +++

Grenache blends $5.00 to $7.49 1,800$ 1,800$ +++

Key points

• Classic varietals dominate in

the top price points by growth

• Numerous varietal price points

above $5.00 did not have any

value in 2014

• White wines above $10.00 are

growing

Top 25 export growth categories

Source: Wine Australia

Page 30: Since 1989, Poland has experienced stable economic growth ... · Category Measure Population 38,434,691 GDP per capita (2014) US$14,343 Unemployment rate (Feb 16) 10.3% Currency Polish

Source: Wine Australia

Top 10 exported regions by value, 2015

Page 31: Since 1989, Poland has experienced stable economic growth ... · Category Measure Population 38,434,691 GDP per capita (2014) US$14,343 Unemployment rate (Feb 16) 10.3% Currency Polish
Page 32: Since 1989, Poland has experienced stable economic growth ... · Category Measure Population 38,434,691 GDP per capita (2014) US$14,343 Unemployment rate (Feb 16) 10.3% Currency Polish

Source: Wine Intelligence

Page 33: Since 1989, Poland has experienced stable economic growth ... · Category Measure Population 38,434,691 GDP per capita (2014) US$14,343 Unemployment rate (Feb 16) 10.3% Currency Polish

Stores

% who have bought wine at the following

retailers in the past 6 months

Biedronka 46%

Lidl 32%

Tesco 32%

Carrefour 16%

Auchan 16%

Kaufland 16%

Żabka 8%

Real 8%

E.Leclerc 6%

Alma Market 6%

Intermarché 6%

Lewiatan 5%

Netto 5%

Makro 4%

POLOmarket 3%

Selgros 3%

Freshmarket 3%

wina.pl 3%

Kondrat Wina Wybrane 3%

Aldi 2%

SPAR 1%

101win.pl 1%

Top Market 1%

winezja.pl 1%

Sieć 34 1%

Rosa 1%

Eurocash Cash & Carry 1%

Rabat Detal 1%

Małpka 0%

Aldik Nova 0%

Globi 0%

Bingo 0%

Other 9%

None of these 1%Source: Wine Intelligence

Page 34: Since 1989, Poland has experienced stable economic growth ... · Category Measure Population 38,434,691 GDP per capita (2014) US$14,343 Unemployment rate (Feb 16) 10.3% Currency Polish

Source: Wine Intelligence

Page 35: Since 1989, Poland has experienced stable economic growth ... · Category Measure Population 38,434,691 GDP per capita (2014) US$14,343 Unemployment rate (Feb 16) 10.3% Currency Polish

• Export value to Poland increased by 21 per cent in 2015

• Australian white wine exports have grown by 76 per cent

• Australian Shiraz, Chardonnay, and Sauvignon Blanc all

growing

• Cabernet Sauvignon and various white varietals above

$10/litre are increasing

• Austrade office in Warsaw, Poland

• International brands, consisting of multiple European

sources, control the largest wine market share

• Beer dominates alcohol consumption

• The ‘sweetness of the wine’ is considered the most

important choice cue for Polish wine drinkers

• Wine from Italy enjoys popularity thanks to Italian food

being a favourite for Polish diners

• Only 9% of Polish wine drinkers have consumed

Australian wine in the last 6 months

• Australia is ranked 15th in imports

• Shiraz and Merlot at above $10/litre have declined in the

past year

• Per capita consumption increasing

• Total value of the wine market is growing

• White wines exports are growing quicker than red

• There are numerous varietals experiencing good growth

• Consumption of spirits is declining due to the introduction

of a 15 per cent excise tax in January 2014

• The ‘sweetness of the wine’ is considered the most

important choice cue for Polish wine drinkers

Page 36: Since 1989, Poland has experienced stable economic growth ... · Category Measure Population 38,434,691 GDP per capita (2014) US$14,343 Unemployment rate (Feb 16) 10.3% Currency Polish