Presented to

Rocky Mountain Land Use InstituteMarch 9, 2007

Presented to

Rocky Mountain Land Use InstituteMarch 9, 2007

Sin Agua, No Huy Vida(“Without Water, There is No Life”)

Sin Agua, No Huy Vida(“Without Water, There is No Life”)

Peter D Binney, P.E.Director, Aurora Water

Aurora, Coloradopbinney@auroragov.org

The “New West” Meets The “Old West”The “New West” Meets The “Old West”

How Do Existing Icons of the West Evolve?How Do Existing Icons of the West Evolve?

A QUANTUM CHANGE - “How Will Public Policy and Water Management Adapt to Increasing Populations, Economic

Well-Being, Water Scarcity, Sustaining Agriculture, Environmental Protection in the Coming Decades?”

A QUANTUM CHANGE - “How Will Public Policy and Water Management Adapt to Increasing Populations, Economic

Well-Being, Water Scarcity, Sustaining Agriculture, Environmental Protection in the Coming Decades?”

Areas of Substantial/ Highly Likely Water Supply Conflict - 2025

What is Causing The Water Crisis?What is Causing The Water Crisis?

Population growthUrban-centric economies versus agrarian economiesAllocation of water based on “first in time, first in right”Dedication of water to non-consumptive recreational and environmental protection usesA public policy forum for water resource management in a highly regulated, byzantine development cycleLittle unused water in hydrologic cycle requires a re-allocation of historic uses and demand patterns to meet future usesExisting infrastructure capacity is exceeded and has not developed with increasing demandsA presumption that clean, safe, affordable (cheap) water for human consumption is a right not a commodityFuture communities, land use planning and water governance will have to adapt to these realities

Colorado’s Population GrowthColorado’s Population Growth

0100000020000003000000400000050000006000000700000080000009000000

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

Urban Centric Growth

How Does Colorado Currently Use Water?- 90% Agriculture (mostly forage crops)- 4% Municipal (8% by Year 2030)

How Does Colorado Currently Use Water?- 90% Agriculture (mostly forage crops)- 4% Municipal (8% by Year 2030)

. .• Water Diverted• 3,300,000 AF – Corn Feed• 3,000,000 AF – Other Crops• 3,000,000 AF – Alfalfa Hay• 2,700,000 AF – Pastureland• 2,300,000 AF – Other Hay• 800,000 AF – All other diverters

including all cities and towns• 6,000,000 AF – Interstate Compacts

For Delivery to Downstream States

• Water Consumed• 1,270,000 AF – Corn Feed• 1,200,000 AF – Other Crops• 1,200,000 AF – Alfalfa Hay• 1,050,000 AF – Pastureland• 900,000 AF – Other Hay• 400,000 AF – All Other consumers

including all cities and towns• 0 AF – Interstate Compacts for

Delivery to Downstream States

Community PlanningIs Independent of Dependable WaterSupply Development

Community PlanningIs Independent of Dependable WaterSupply Development

1,530,000

560,000

310,000

4,500,000

510,000

1,780,000 320,000

110,000 400,000

164,000

YAMPAYAMPA

WHITEWHITE

COLORADOCOLORADO

GUNNISON

GUNNISONDOLORESDOLORES SAN JUAN

SAN JUAN

ARKANSASARKANSAS

SOUTH PLATTESOUTH PLATTE

N. N. PLATTEPLATTE

LARAMIELARAMIE

RIO GRANDERIO GRANDEWEST SLOPEWEST SLOPE

Population:467,000Irrigated Acres:880,000

EAST SLOPEEAST SLOPEPopulation:3,869,000Irrigated Acres:2,270,000

Evolving Municipal Demands Are Not in Water Abundant Areas

Evolving Municipal Demands Are Not in Water Abundant Areas

Denver Metro

Colorado Springs/Pueblo

Northern

Increased Municipal Water Demands (2030)Increased Municipal Water Demands (2030)

409,000 acre-feet

98,000 acre-feet

Droughts Limit The Amount of Water Available to Serve Our Communities

And Support the Environment

Droughts Limit The Amount of Water Available to Serve Our Communities

And Support the Environment

.

The Climate CassandraThe Climate Cassandra

Megadrought

Colorado River

Over-allocation

Dust Bowl

Spanish

Colonization

Lake Powell/ Lake Mead Will Be More Frequently Over-StressedLake Powell/ Lake Mead Will Be More Frequently Over-Stressed

Key Watersheds are DrierKey Watersheds are Drier

Historical Surface Water Supply Index, South Platte River Basin

- 4 . 0

- 3 . 0

- 2 . 0

- 1. 0

0 . 0

1. 0

2 . 0

3 . 0

4 . 0

5 . 0

Da t e

Historical Surface Water Supply Index, Colorado River Basin

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Da t e

Colorado River

South Platte River

1981 2007

Wet

Dry

Wet

Dry

How Do We Know Cities Need More Reliable Water Supplies? – They Drain Their ReservoirsHow Do We Know Cities Need More Reliable Water Supplies? – They Drain Their Reservoirs

Storage Capacity vs. Total Storage

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Year

Acr

e-fe

et

Storage Capacity

Available Storage

Reservoir Contents

9 Months Left

Streams, Reservoirs Are Affected by DroughtStreams, Reservoirs Are Affected by Drought

South Platte, August 2002

Green Mountain

Reservoir,

July 2003

Communities Must Locate, Develop and Deliver New Sources of Water to

Provide a Reliable Level of Service for Current and Future Residents

and Businesses

Communities Must Locate, Develop and Deliver New Sources of Water to

Provide a Reliable Level of Service for Current and Future Residents

and Businesses.

DRY YEAR: Demand/Yield Comparison - CDP Portfolio

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.020

05

2008

2011

2014

2017

2020

2023

2026

2029

2032

2035

2038

2041

2044

2047

2050

Year

Acr

e Fe

et (1

,000

s)

Platteville ProjectPlatteville ExchangeBrighton Gravel LakesEagle River Hdwter Proj 1bPueblo Lease 1bPueblo Lease 1aEagle River Hdwter Proj 1aEast ReservoirSouth PlatteStorage YieldExisting Planning/Net Yieldgpcd Demand = 175gpcd Demand = 160gpcd Demand = 140

Aurora’s Integrated Water Resource PlanAurora’s Integrated Water Resource Plan

Alternative

Strategies

How Will Cities Acquire Needed Water Supplies?How Will Cities Acquire Needed Water Supplies?

Water ConservationUse Reclaimed Water For Parks / Golf CoursesRecapture Reusable Return FlowsAcquire and Transfer Water From Existing Agricultural Uses:

Lease During DroughtsPurchase and Dry-Up FarmlandsIncrease Agricultural Efficiency/ Transfer SavingsRotational Crop ManagementPurchase and Leaseback for Certain Times

Develop New Sources of Water From Trans-Basin DiversionsBuild Reservoirs and Pipes/ Treatment PlantsSystem Integration and Regional Efficiency

Adaptive Management Practices Balancing Demand Management and Supply ProjectsAdaptive Management Practices Balancing Demand Management and Supply Projects

2006 2010 2020 2030

•Wetter•Demand Management•Aquifer Mining•Over-drafting•Indirect Use•Ag Leasing/Interruptible Supplies

•Wetter•Demand Management•Aquifer Mining•Over-drafting•Planned Indirect Use /Maximization of Local Water•Ag Leasing/Interruptible

•Y2010 +•Small Trans-basin•Limited Ag Transfers•Public Benefit Multi-Purpose

•Y2020 +•One or Two Regional Trans-basin Projects•System Integration•Expanded Re-allocation of Ag Uses•Planned Indirect Potable Projects

Straw – Lite, Blue Mesa, Green Mountain, Arkansas Pumpback, S Platte Pumpback, Other Major Structural Project (?)

Water Conservation – The Bluegrass BankWater Conservation – The Bluegrass BankDaily Treatment

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

Jan 1

Feb 1

Mar 1 Apr 1

May 1

Jun 1

Jul 1

Aug 1

Sep 1 Oct 1

Nov 1

Dec 1

Date

Mill

ion

Gal

lons

per

Day

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Demand Reduction

Water ReclamationWater Reclamation

Agricultural WaterAgricultural Water

Location of Agricultural Water Uses / Cities

1,003,500 Acres Irrigated Lands

2,545,500 Ac-Ft Irrigation Diversions

CBT Shares Are Being Converted From Agricultural to Municipal UsesCBT Shares Are Being Converted From Agricultural to Municipal Uses

Municipal

Agricultural

Agriculture-Municipal Interface Agriculture-Municipal Interface

OpportunityLeasing

ScheduledClosing

DripIrrigationSystems

Purchase/Lease Back

Efficiency

RotationalFallowing

DroughtLease

Purchase/ Dry Up

Options/Conservation

Easements

Aurora’s Farm-City ProgramsAurora’s Farm-City Programs

Purchase of Rocky Ford Ditch with re-vegetation, School Payments, Economic Development

Lake County Transfer/ Open Space Initiative

High Line Canal Interruptible Supply Program

Rocky Ford II Drip Irrigation Program

Lower South Platte Augmentation Water Program/ Integrated Operations –HB06-1124

Lower South Platte Lease Back program

2004 Success Story – Drip Irrigation2004 Success Story – Drip Irrigation

Aurora's Prairie Waters ProjectAurora's Prairie Waters Project

Sustainable Treatment – River Bank Filtration and Aquifer Recharge and RecoverySustainable Treatment – River Bank Filtration and Aquifer Recharge and Recovery

Aurora’s Existing Purification Facilities Developed for Mountain Water ResourcesAurora’s Existing Purification Facilities Developed for Mountain Water Resources

ChallengesTaste and Odor

Pathogens

Water Purification Processes Required To Provide Excellent Water Quality and Public AcceptanceWater Purification Processes Required To Provide Excellent Water Quality and Public Acceptance

Taste and Odor

Color

TDS

Nitrate

Pathogens

Organics

Micro-Pollutants

Challenges

What Does This Mean At Community Level?What Does This Mean At Community Level?

Can we continue to plan and construct communities in the same manner?No State or Federal funds available except as loansProjects will be capitalized at municipal level using water sales and tap fees. Other sources (State sales tax acceptable for public uses/ benefits of projects?)Era of cheap water and taps is passing for suburbs but how much can the customer/ market absorb? Are cities ready for $5.00 to $10.00 per 1000 gallon water and tap fees that could exceed $20,000 or $30,000 per household?Are City water users willing to accept frequent water restrictions for lawn watering?Is a reliable water supply necessary to sell a mortgage?How can local governments/ water districts effectively develop reliable water sources in today’s regulatory/ public policy setting when saying “no” is the defaultAre regional water systems politically acceptable?

What Does It Take To Get Traction?What Does It Take To Get Traction?

What is Colorado’s and The New West’s Future?

What is Colorado’s and The New West’s Future?

Sin Agua, No Huy Vida�(“Without Water, There is No Life”)The “New West” Meets The “Old West”How Do Existing Icons of the West Evolve?A QUANTUM CHANGE - “How Will Public Policy and Water Management Adapt to Increasing Populations, Economic Well-Being, Water ScWhat is Causing The Water Crisis?Colorado’s Population GrowthHow Does Colorado Currently Use Water?� - 90% Agriculture (mostly forage crops) �- 4% Municipal (8% by Year 2030)Community Planning�Is Independent of �Dependable Water�Supply DevelopmentEvolving Municipal Demands Are Not in Water Abundant Areas Increased Municipal Water Demands (2030)Droughts Limit The Amount of Water Available to Serve Our Communities�And Support the EnvironmentThe Climate CassandraLake Powell/ Lake Mead Will Be More Frequently Over-StressedKey Watersheds are DrierHow Do We Know Cities Need More Reliable Water Supplies? – They Drain Their ReservoirsStreams, Reservoirs Are Affected by DroughtCommunities Must Locate, Develop and Deliver New Sources of Water to Provide a Reliable Level of Service for Current and FuturAurora’s Integrated Water Resource PlanHow Will Cities Acquire Needed Water Supplies?Adaptive Management Practices Balancing Demand Management and Supply ProjectsWater Conservation – The Bluegrass BankWater Reclamation Agricultural WaterCBT Shares Are Being Converted From Agricultural to Municipal UsesAgriculture-Municipal Interface Aurora’s Farm-City Programs2004 Success Story – Drip IrrigationAurora's Prairie Waters ProjectSustainable Treatment – River Bank Filtration and Aquifer Recharge and RecoveryAurora’s Existing Purification Facilities Developed for Mountain Water ResourcesWater Purification Processes Required To Provide Excellent Water Quality and Public AcceptanceWhat Does This Mean At Community Level?What Does It Take To Get Traction?What is Colorado’s and The New West’s Future?