Simulation of Temperature and Precipitation using Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) for Uzbekistan...
-
Upload
moris-webb -
Category
Documents
-
view
213 -
download
0
Transcript of Simulation of Temperature and Precipitation using Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) for Uzbekistan...
Simulation of Temperature and Precipitation using Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) for Uzbekistan
Central latitude of the model domain 40NCentral longitude 60Eiy 40jx 51ds 60km
Cumulus parameterization scheme GrellConvective closure scheme Fritsch &Chappell
Two experiments: NCEP and ECMWFSimulation Period 1.07.1997-1.08.1997
SimulatedMaximum Temperature1997.07.15(12)
It was observed a hit wavein the in central part of the country
ECMWF
NCEP
T e m p 9 0 - 7 <
2 6 2 6 - 2 8 2 8 - 3 0 3 0 - 3 2 3 2 - 3 3 3 3 - 3 4
N E W
S
t
T s c p 1 9 0 - 7 <
2 6 2 6 - 2 8 2 8 - 3 0 3 0 - 3 2 3 2 - 3 3 3 3 - 3 4
N E W
S
t
Estimating possible extreme values of monthly air temperature.
Fig. (a) presents the values of the 90 % probability empirical quantiles throughout the territory and its possible values in conditions of a 1°C increase of the mean air temperature in July.
The figures clearly show expansion of the areas where extremely high monthly air temperatures are probable
a
b
T e m p 1 0 - 1 <
- 1 2 - 1 2 - - 9
- 9 - - 6 - 6 - - 3 - 3 - 0
N E W
S
t
t
T s c p 2 1 0 - 1 <
- 1 2 - 1 2 - - 9
- 9 - - 6 - 6 - - 3 - 3 - 0 0 - 2
N E W
S
t
a
b
Estimating possible extreme values of monthly air temperature.
Fig. (a) presents a distribution of the 10 % probability empirical quantiles of the average monthly air temperature in January.
Fig. (b) presents the same value computed for conditions of a 2°C increase in the average air temperature throughout the territory of Uzbekistan.
The quantiles were computed for the conditions of climatic scenarios with the application of theoretical distribution functions.