Simulating the impact of winter conditions on the survival ... · Tula, Russia: Comparison with...
Transcript of Simulating the impact of winter conditions on the survival ... · Tula, Russia: Comparison with...
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Allard de Wit, Alterra, Wageningen-UR, Netherlands
Taru Palosuo & Reimund Rötter, LUKE, Finland
Anne Kari Bergjord, BioForsk, Norway
Oleg Virchenko & Alexander Kleschenko, AMI, Obninsk, Russia
Simulating the impact of winter conditions
on the survival and yield potential of
winter wheat
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Lost crop area due to adverse winter
conditions in Russia
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Source: USDA-PECAD
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Source: Russian
Space Institute
(IKI)
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What is the frost tolerance of winter-wheat?
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-17.2 (± 1.2) ºC Porter and Gawith, 1999
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Frost tolerance in Russian wheat cultivars
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Region, Variety Survival % at -18.5
Mironovka,Ukraina
Mironovskaja 808 65%
Mironovskaja jub. 35%
Odessa
Odesskaja 16 75%
Odesskaja 51 41%
Don
Severodonskaja 54%
Tarasovskaja 29 56%
Donskaja ost. 44%
Urodgainaja 42%
Krasnodar
Bezostaja 1 27%
Krasnodarskaja 39 70%
Severokubanka 53%
Soratnitsa 50%
Krasnodarskaja 46 32%
Zamena 31%
Spartanka 40%
Yuna 36%
Yugtina 30%
Siberia and Volga region
Uljanovka 86%
Albidum 114 98%
Kinelskaja 4 87%
Albidum 12 92%
Source:
Fedoulov, 1998. Euphytica
100: 101–108, 1998
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The FROSTOL model
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Tem
pera
ture
[C
]
LT50C
Source: Bergjord et al. Europ. J. Agronomy 28 (2008) 321–330
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Kill function based on LT50
7 Source: Vico et al. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 197
(2014) 65–75
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Connecting FROSTOL to WOFOST
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Winter survival: Other processes involved
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Source: N.N. Sãulescu and H.-J. Braun. Chapter 9: Cold Tolerance. Reynolds, M.P.,
J.I. Ortiz-Monasterio, and A. McNab (eds.). 2001. Application of Physiology in Wheat
Breeding. Mexico, D.F.: CIMMYT.
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Field experimental data Jokioinen (FI)
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Simulated frost damage Jokioinen (FI)
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Simulated yield reduction Jokioinen (FI)
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Tula, Russia: Comparison with observed
winterkill events
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Year Reported winterkill
events at stations
simulated winterkill
events for all fields
2006 1 N/A
2007 1 33
2008 5 168
2009 0 89
2010 9 574
2011 0 0
2012 2 0
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Winter kill modelling vs. field observations on meteo stations
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Station Year Killed area %
Bohlkov 2010 20
Mtensk 2010 3
Suvirov 2010 15
Volovo 2010 99
Uzlovaja 2010 70
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Take home message
Frost tolerance in wheat is dynamic in time and space and probabilistic in nature.
Frost tolerance and plant survival percentage can be simulated well given laboratory experimental data.
Field experimental data shows a mixed result:
● Finnish experiments are poorly reproduced
● Observations from Russian agromet stations are better reproduced (albeit more qualitatively)
Other factors determining winter survival probably play an important role.
Open implementation: http://github.com/ajwdewit/pcse
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Questions?
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