Simplicity on the Other Side of Complexity An Introduction to Complexity Science and Management.
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Transcript of Simplicity on the Other Side of Complexity An Introduction to Complexity Science and Management.
Simplicity on the Other Side of Complexity
An Introduction to Complexity
Science and Management
I. Introductions and Purpose
Introductions Faculty Staff Special Guests
Our Purpose To build understanding of &
confidence in using complexity principles and practices
Who Is In The Room?Connection Before Content
Find a “strange attractor”
“Exercise or Exorcism?”
II. How This Workshop Will Be Different
Structured Improvisation Many activities may seem paradoxical: structured
with simple rules that draw out insight; familiar and fundamentally different
We will rely on emergence as well as formal methods We intend to have serious fun (and surprises) as we
learn! We will work at three levels throughout the day:
transferring information, skill building, and mental model shifting
DistributionTechnologies
InteractiveTechnologies
CollaborativeTechnologies
Lear
ning
Obj
ectiv
es
Delivery Approach
Instructor/ExpertCentered
LearnerCentered
Team, Partnership orCommunity Centered
InformationTransfer
Skill orCompetency
Building
Mental ModelShift &
KnowledgeCreation
Learning At Three Levels
Adapted from Lotus Institute
The Illuminating, Profound Poetry of Complexity
Language can be used for poetry or prose. In a poem, the meaning of words is far more dense. That is, each word may carry several meanings; and a sentence as a whole may carry an enormous density of interlocking meanings… together they illuminate the whole from multiple perspectives.
The more dense and embedded -- the more breadth and depth -- the more profound a poem can become.
Like poetry, this complexity course strings together many patterns in words, images & experience. Within the embedded patterns or fractals, we hope you will find simplicity illuminated… and linked directly to multiple levels of your experience.
We hope for illumination both in the larger patterns in which your work is embedded (our ecology & economy) and the smaller patterns that are embedded in it (day-to-day activities).
Creative Illumination
The poet’s eye, in a fine frenzy rolling, Doth glance from heaven to earth, from
earth to heaven, And, as imagination bodies forth
The forms of things unknown, the poet’s pen
Turns them into shapes, and gives to airy nothing
A local habitation and name. William Shakespeare, A Midsummer Night’s Dream
Bridging PolaritiesWe will move from Either/Or to “Yes, And”
ThinkingComplexity
Clockware
Design
Simplicity
Swarmware
Emergence
I ntegrate
Operate
I nclude
Reduce Variation
Diff erentiate
I nnovate
Transcend
Let go of control
Paradox frames the door to life. Charles Johnson
Workshop Agenda & Rules See Agenda for details Lunch & break times will be set as we go Take responsibility for your own learning; vote
with your feet during interactive sessions Expect to be provoked, challenged and
surprised -- complexity turns convention on its head
Please turn off cellular phone and beepers Try to keep your “stuff” collected. We will be
moving about the room Phones and bathrooms are...
Relationship Deepening
Purpose Shifting
Information Flowing
How We Will Measure Success
See Handout
III. Seeing Through A Complexity Lens
Inspiration from Complex Adaptive Systems Definition: A collection of individual agents,
who have the freedom to act in unpredictable ways, and whose actions are interconnected such that one agent’s actions changes the context for other agents.
Examples: termite colonies, stock markets, the Internet, gardens, human beings, groups of people
DefiningComplex Adaptive Systems Alternative CAS definition by
Ralph Stacey: CASs consist of a network of agents that interact with each other according to a set of rules that require them to examine and respond to each other’s behavior to improve their behavior and thus the behavior of the system they comprise.
Attributes of Complex Adaptive Systems
Elements of the system change themselves (they adapt)
Complex behaviors can emerge from a few simple rules that are applied locally
Emergence of novelty & creativity is a natural state
Order emerges without central control Non-linearity: small changes can have BIG effects Systems are embedded in systems & their
interdependency matters Not predictable in detail: forecasting is an inexact,
yet boundable, art Co-evolution of life proceeds through constant
tension & balance Adapted from Paul Plsek
Interdependent AttributesAdaptableElements
Embedded
Systems
Co-Evolution
Non-Linearity
SimpleRules
Not Predicablein Detail
Order w/o
Central Control
Natural Emergence &
Creativity
Why Now? More of our world is connected, complex and
interdependent than ever before Entities that embrace these principles and
practices seem to adapt and grow; and, institutions that don’t, are not functioning well at all
New complexity science directly challenges pervasive Newtonian “machine-age” thinking
Advances in biology & CASs are informing science & technology advances in other fields
Time and space have been compressed (the lags & gaps have disappeared)
Complexity Lens Reflection
We are finely tuned “complex adaptive systems,” especially when we are working at our highest intelligence & purpose. Describe a time or experience when a
collaborative effort created or encouraged something surprising. It should be something you are proud to have been a part of… a difference that made a difference. It can be a very small, subtle thing. It could be from your current workplace or a past effort of any kind.
See the Workbook Handout
When Complexity Practices Are Useful
When you are frustrated with current and past approaches
When challenges are wicked and messy When you want to start something new When there is little agreement or
certainty about how to respond * * See the Zone of Complexity in Ralph
Stacey’s diagram
Stacey DiagramKnow When Your Challenges Are In the Zone of Complexity
Certainty
Ag
reem
en
t
Close to Far from
Far
from
Clo
se to Simple
Plan, control
ChaoticSeek Patterns
Stacey DiagramKnow When Your Challenges Are In the Zone of Complexity
Certainty
Ag
reem
en
t
Close to Far from
Far
from
Clo
se to Simple
Plan, control
ChaoticSeek Patterns
Complicated
ComplexSwarm
What Approaches Are Useful in the Zone?
Certainty
Agr
eem
ent
Close to Far from
Far
from
Clo
se to Simple
Plan, control
ChaosSeek Patterns
CAS Metaphors, Good Enough Vision, Minimum Specs, Seeking Out
Paradox, Multiple Actions, Chunking,
Generative Relationships, Informal Networks, Tuning To Your System &
Natural Attractors, Swarmware
Simple & Complex Approaches
Simple
• Plan then act• Create explicit plans• Look for agreement & a clear outcome• Limit type of actions• Drive implementation & set targets
Complex
•“Act-learn-plan” at the same time• Look for divergence• Use multiple actions & min specs• Tune to the edge• Build on what emerges & grows
Chronic Disease Complex
Acute, Uncomplicated Simple
Gradual onset over time Abrupt onset
Multivariate cause, changing over time
Of ten a single cause can be identifi ed
Diagnosis is uncertain and prognosis obscure
Diagnosis and prognosis are commonly accurate
I ndecisive technologies & therapies with adversities
Specifi c therapy or treatment available
No cure, pervasive uncertainty: management, coaching & self -care over time is needed to improve health
Profession & laity must be reciprocally knowledgeable to improve health status
Technological intervention is usually eff ective; cure is likely with return to normal health
Profession is knowledgeable and laity inexperienced
Adapted from: Halstead Holman, MD (Stanford)
Leadership TasksIn A Professional Bureaucracy
role defining – job and task descriptions tight structuring – use chain of command simplifying – prioritize or limit simple actions socializing – seek homogeneous values &
ideas decision making – find the “best” choice knowing – decide & tell others what to do controlling – tightly managed execution planning via forecasting – plan & then roll out staying the course – align & maintain focus
Adapted from Ruth Anderson & Reuben McDaniel, JR.
Leadership TasksComplex Adaptive System
relationship building – work with patterns of interaction
loose coupling – informal communities of practice complicating – add more degrees of freedom diversifying – draw out & exploit difference sense making – collective interpretation/meaning learning – act/learn/plan at the same time improvising – intuition guiding action w/min specs thinking about the future – imagine surprises noticing emergent direction – build on what works
Adapted from Ruth Anderson & Reuben McDaniel, JR.
Leadership TasksProfessional Bureaucracy
Complex Adaptive System
role defining tight structuring simplifying socializing decision making knowing controlling (w/ max specs) planning via forecasting stay the course
relationship building loose coupling complicating diversifying sense making learning improvising (w/ min specs) thinking about the future noticing emergent direction
Adapted from Ruth Anderson & Reuben McDaniel, JR.
How Does Simplicity Emerge from CASs?
“Given the right circumstances, from no more than dreams, determination, and the liberty to try, ordinary people consistently do extraordinary things. To lead is to create those circumstances.” Dee Hock, Visa Founder
“Nobody knows exactly how it works, but we can give it what it needs to grow... prepare & fertilize soil with collaborative technology; seed with change agents; protect new growth; water the “right plant in the right place”; weed & prune what does not grow; harvest when ripe.” Peter & Trudy Johnson-Lenz, Awakening Technologies
“Farmers don’t grow crops. They create the conditions for
crops to grow.” Gareth Morgan
Simplicity on the Other Side of Complexity
IV. Scientific Origins & Emerging Insights
Scientific Origins
Surprising Convergence of Disciplines
Biology
EcologyMeteorology
Mathematics
Chemistry
Psychology
Sociology
Economics
Physics
Computer Science
Before Complexity
Scientists believed the future was knowable given enough data points
Dissecting discrete parts would reveal how everything -- the whole system -- works
Phenomena can be reduced to simple cause & effect relationships
The role of scientists, technology, & leaders was to predict and control the future
Increasing levels of control over nature would improve our quality of life
Newton & the Machine Metaphor
In science the search for the basic building blocks
In management The whole is no more or no less than
the sum of parts, so focus on the parts (e.g. functions, disciplines)
Organizations and people are implicitly viewed as machines (or machine parts)
Tom Petzinger Wall Street Journal
“Even as it was toppled from unassailability in science, Newtonian mechanics remained firmly lodged as the mental model of management, from the first stirrings of the industrial revolution right through the advent of modern-day M.B.A. studies.”
As biologists and other pioneers began to realize, it could not explain the self renewing processes of life.
Roots Of Complexity
Santa Fe Institute Physics-chaos theory Math-fractal geometry Meteorology-butterfly effect Biology-complex adaptive
systems
From Physics Envy To Biology Envy
Surprising Convergence: We Stand on the Shoulders of Giants
Complex Adaptive Systems
((( Murray Gell-Mann )))The Quark & the Jaguar
((( Stuart Kaufmann )))At Home in the Universe
((( John Holland )))Emergence
((( Brian Arthur )))Increasing Returns
EcologyJames Lovelock, Gaia Hypothesis
MeteorologyEdward Lorenz, The Butterfly Effect
SociologyRobert Axelrod, Complexity of Cooperation
ChemistryIlya Prigogine, Order Out of Chaos
PhysiologyAry Goldberger, Cardiac Research
Socio-BiologyE.O. Wilson Consilience
Computer ScienceChristopher Langton
GeneticsR.C. Lewontin, Biology as Ideology
PhilosophyKen Wilbur, Integral Science & Religion
Physics-EcologyFritjof Capra, Web of Life
MathematicsMandlebrot, Fractals
PhysicsDavid Bohm, Wholeness
& the Implicate Order
More Giants Complexity applied to organizations
Complex Adaptive Systems
People PracticesJeffery Pfeffer
Org DevelopmentDavid Cooperrider
LeadershipGareth Morgan
Market StrategyKevin Kelly
Strategy/LeadershipRalph Stacey
InnovationEverett Rogers
ManagementBrenda Zimmerman
PlanningHenry Mintzberg
StrategyS. Brown & K. Eisenhardt
LeadershipMeg Wheatley
LearningEtienne Wegner
ManagementJeffery Goldstein
Organzing StructureDee Hock
SustainabilityPaul Hawken/James Moore
KnowledgeIkujiro NonakaOrg Dynamics
Roger Lewin/Birute Regine
Complexity In Practice Dee Hock -- managed the banking “commons” &
balanced competition/cooperation while leading VISA (Birth of the Chaordic Age)
Arie de Geus -- brought a natural system lens to Royal Dutch Shell & scenario planning (The Living Company)
Orpheus Chamber Symphony -- a leaderless group Tom Petzinger -- WSJ stories & The New Pioneers Roger Lewin & Birute Regine -- The Soul at Work Irv Dardik’s Heart Waves -- applied to health and
chronic disease (clinical trials are underway)
Emerging Insights
Key Attributes
Elements of the system change themselves (they adapt) Complex behaviors can emerge from a few simple rules
that are applied locally Emergence of novelty & creativity is a natural state Order emerges without central control Non-linearity: small changes can have BIG effects Systems are embedded in systems & their
interdependency matters Not predictable in detail: forecasting is an inexact, yet
boundable, art Co-evolution of life proceeds through constant tension &
balance
Key AttributesAdaptable Elements
EmbeddedSystems
Co-EvolutionNon-Linearity
SimpleRules
Not Predictablein Detail
Order w/oCentral Control
Natural Emergence &
Creativity
Simple Rules in Practice
Living systems follow “simple rules” Craig Reynolds’ “Boids” simulation uses
minimum rules of interaction Gareth Morgan’s “min specs” Simple rules include “Must do’s” or “Never
do’s”
Example: Reynolds’ Steering Rules
Maintain a minimum distance from other boids and objects
Match speed of neighboring boids Move toward the center of mass of
flock-mates in your area
Complex “flocking” emerges!
Living Systems Are Non-Linear
Not predictable in long-term Future not just unknown but
unknowable Small events may trigger huge effects Huge efforts may have negligible
effects
Rosa Parks’ refusal to yield her seat
Weather, hurricanes
A statement or word used by Alan Greenspan
Examples Of Non-Linearity
The 15% Principle Learning how to “flow” with & “tune to”
change in complex systems W. Edwards Deming suggested that everyone
-- from the CEO to the front line worker -- has influence over 15% of their system. The other 85% is beyond their discretionary control.
Recognize that you have 15% discretionary influence… it may sound small but you can use it to make a difference that makes a difference.
Simple Rules & Attractors“Auto-Pilot” Rules.... New Pattern
Emerging
Search for simple rules, subtle patterns or
rhythms that attract natural energy in your system.
How Does an Attractor Pattern Shift or Flip?
A system chooses to be disturbed the disturbance gets amplified it creates instability the system falls apart it flips or shifts to a new attractor
(e.g. new simple rules) by searching for & organizing
around new meaning
Source: Margaret Wheatley
“How To” Disturb & Amplify
Allow new information into the system Work with organizational boundaries Connect systems to environment Question differences Challenge assumptions Take advantage of chance and
serendipity
Adapted from: Jeffrey Goldstein, The Unshackled Organization
Chunking Building on what works from the
ground up
The only way to make a successful complex system is to begin with a simple system that works. Complex systems are not instantly installed... they are assembled incrementally from pieces that can operate independently.
The interdependent parts share control and act locally in parallel. A central command slows things down in a distributed network. Source: Kevin Kelly
Lessons From Physiology
Healthy Heart OR Dying Heart
Heart Rate Dynamics
?
?
Heart Rate Dynamics
Dynamics
Ad
ap
tab
ility
Ordered Disordered
ZONE of HEALTH
Point of Maximum Adaptability
Threshold Threshold
High
Low
Dynamic Adaptability
Application: Heart Wave Cycles
Cyclic Exercise & Health A series of activation-relaxation
cycles Pulse rate rises & falls to generate a
sequence of heart rate waves The timing, intensity and “rhythm”
of one cycle is related to the previous cycle
Conventional Exercise & Health Continuous, prolonged
Elevated, extended pulse rate
Interval training Increasing, sequenced pulse rate
That state of wholeness in which the
individual is poised for maximal adaptability.
It is a state characterized by a dynamic
tension resulting from the interplay of interactive forces at
many different scales.
A New Definition of Health
Nine Interdependent Principles
Complexity Lens
SeekParadox
Shadow System
Good Enough Vision
Multiple Actions
Chunking Tune ToThe Edge
Clockware/Swarmware
Competition/Cooperation
Nine Emerging & Connected Principles
View your system through the lens of complexity
Build a “good enough” vision, use a “min specs” approach
When life is far from certain, lead with clockware and swarmware in tandem
More Principles... Uncover and work with
paradox & tension
Tune your place to the edge
Go for multiple actions at the fringes, let direction arise
More Principles...
Listen to the “shadow system”
Grow complex systems by chunking
Mix competition and cooperation
Reflection – Interdependent Principles
Complexity Lens
SeekParadox
Shadow System
Good Enough Vision
Multiple Actions
Chunking Tune ToThe Edge
Clockware/Swarmware
Competition/Cooperation
Kevin Kelly’s 10 Rules for the New Economy
Opportunities Before Efficiencies
Let Go at the TopIncreasing
Returns
RelationshipTech
Follow the Free
Embrace the Swarm
From Placesto Spaces
No Harmony, All Flux
Plenitude, not Scarcity
Feed the Web First
Simplicity on the Other Side of Complexity
V. Stories that Illustrate Complexity Principles in
Practice
Stories We Will Explore
Improving Admissions by Tuning to Patients
Growing a Sustainable, “Green” Carpet Business
[Add your favorite stories from Edgeware, Edgeplace, The New Pioneers, The Soul at Work,…]
Heroic Individual ActionsLuke Skywalker (The Force)
Guru-GuideObi Wan Kenobi &Yoda
TricksterDarth Vader
Blocking ForceImperial Forces (The Dark Side)
Traditional Storytelling
Heroic Individual Actions New Attractor Pattern
Guru-GuideAdaptivePrinciples-At-Play
TricksterWaves of Emergence & Serendipity
Blocking Force“Autopilot” Attractor
(Self-Fulfilling Prophecy)
Storytelling Through a Complexity Lens
New Attractor Pattern> Notice how new patterns emergein far-from-equilibrium conditions
AdaptivePrinciples> Discern complexity practices-in-action
Waves of Emergence> Expect novelty & surprise that dampens or amplifies change
“Autopilot” Attractor(Self-Fulfilling Prophecy)
> Uncover subtle/simple rules embedded in current patterns of
behavior Keith McCandless, 1999
Improving Flow by Tuning to Patients
Who is involved: nurses, physicians, administrators, ancillary departments
Focus: Improving patient flow through in a hospital based outpatient unit in Utah (LDS)
Results: 50% increase in volume without plant expansion, reduced expense, dramatically improved patient satisfaction
Source: The New Pioneers, by Tom Petzinger, Jr. (pages 87-90)
New Attractor PatternNotice how new patterns emergein far-from-equilibrium conditions> “Do what is right for the patient!”
> Frustration & commitment to change
AdaptivePrinciplesDiscern complexity practices-in-action> Seek paradox> Tune to the edge> Good-enough vision> Simple rules
Waves of EmergenceExpect novelty & surprise that dampens or amplifies change> Patients can walk to surgery!> All stakeholders benefit when patient is the focus> Common-sense AND radical at the same time
“Autopilot” AttractorUncover subtle/simple rules embedded
in current patterns of behavior> Do what the surgeons want… and, don’t question it!
> Acceptance of “The operation is a success, the patient is pissed!”
Growing a Sustainable, “Green” Carpet Business
Who is involved: Executive (Ray Anderson) and managers at the Interface flooring company; suppliers & customers
Focus: Extreme (and green) reduction in resource use through developing sustainable production and business practices
Results: Immediate waste reductions won favor among investors; tens of millions of dollars went to the bottom line; market differentiation
Source: The New Pioneers, by Tom Petzinger, Jr. (pages 246-253)
New Attractor PatternNotice how new patterns emergein far-from-equilibrium conditions
> Early 1990’s recession; Ray’s soul searching; Ecology of Commerce> Pesky customers asking about recycled materials; grow by cleaning
up!
AdaptivePrinciplesDiscern complexity practices-in-action> Systems-in-systems interdependency> Good-enough vision> Simple rules
Waves of EmergenceExpect novelty & surprise that dampens or amplifies change> Some suppliers got on board> “Evergreen leasing”> “All beauty starts with nature” & customers noticed
“Autopilot” AttractorUncover subtle/simple rules embedded
in current patterns of behavior> Sell “flexibility”; buy supplies cheap; and, grow by acquisition
> Manage internal production -- ignore how your suppliers produce their goods and how your customers dispose of your
product
New Attractor Pattern> Notice how new patterns emergein far-from-equilibrium conditions
AdaptivePrinciples> Discern complexity practices-in-action
Waves of Emergence> Expect novelty & surprise that dampens or amplifies change
“Autopilot” Attractor(Self-Fulfilling Prophecy)
> Uncover subtle/simple rules embedded in current patterns of
behavior Keith McCandless, 1999
Material and Ideas Contributed by:
Kevin Dooley, PhD; Glenda Eoyang; Ralph Stacey, PhD; Ary Goldberger, MD; Brenda Zimmerman, PhD; Jeffrey Goldstein, PhD; Gareth Morgan, PhD; Curt Lindberg; Paul Plsek; and, a vibrant community of complexity pioneers
Composed and developed for VHA Inc. by Keith McCandless in Seattle ([email protected])