SIMEC Atlantis EnergySource: Company data, CFE Research estimates This deviation is in line with the...

12
This is a marketing communication. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition of dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. However, CFE has put in place procedures and controls designed to prevent dealing ahead of marketing communications. For institutional clients use only. Please see important regulatory disclaimers and disclosures on pages 10-12 A stronger footing With the completion of a £5m equity raise, we think that SIMEC Atlantis should be able to bring in sufficient debt or other finance to complete the acquisition of Green Highland Renewables (“GHR”). This will place the company on a much stronger footing financially as GHR will be cash generating from day one, initially contributing an annualised £11m in EBITDA. Along with the 25% funding of Uskmouth from Equitix announced in November, the company is now in a position where it should not need to seek any additional equity funding to achieve its main targets. Our target price changes principally to reflect the dilution on the equity raise and moves to 84p from 86p and we reiterate our BUY recommendation. Funding structure appropriate for these assets SIMEC Atlantis has raised £5m through the issue of 31.4m shares, and will issue a matching number of shares to SIMEC, the GHR vendor. This will allow the company to secure the acquisition with completion to follow on the finalisation of c.£25m of new funding which we expect to be debt based. While higher gearing could be seen as additional risk, we think the lower earnings volatility of the GHR assets significantly mitigates this. The expected inter annual variation in output from this portfolio is lower than normal for hydro. Pricing is also less volatile with the vast majority of the price fixed in real terms (RPI) for twenty years. Forecasts adjusted for revised terms and accounting changes Our forecasts already included a conservative assumption of the GHR deal. We have adjusted these for the actual timing of the deal, which we expect to be slightly ahead together with changes for the actual funding structure. This now includes more debt and as a result, dilution is less than we originally expected. We are also taking the opportunity to adjust our reported profit forecasts for a probable revised accounting treatment of the Uskmouth acquisition, reducing reported numbers. This has no impact on cash or valuation with the main change being that capitalised interest and development costs now move on to the P&L and out of capex in the cashflow statement. 01 April 2019 | Corporate Company Note | Alternative Energy & Resource Efficiency Equity Research | UK SIMEC Atlantis Energy ( AIM : SAE LN ) BUY Share Price (as at close: 29/03/2019) 16.5 p Target Price 84p (from 86p) Upside to TP 408.8% Market Cap (£'m) 60.4 Net Debt (£'m) 32.3 Enterprise Value (£'m) 92.7 Shares in Issue (m) 429.1 Free Float (%) 46.0% Average Daily Volume (000, -3m) 73.0 12 month high/low 42 p/11.75 p (%) 1m 3m 12m Absolute -19.5 -31.2 n.a. FTA relative -21.0 -37.0 n.a. Price & price relative (-2 year) Source: Datastream Next News Prelims - Q2 2019 Business Independent renewable power producer www.simecatlantis.com Adam Forsyth Research Analyst +44 (0) 20 7894 7214 [email protected] Year end December Revenue (£'m) EBIT (£'m) PBT (£'m) Tax (%) EPS (FD) (p) PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Div Yield (%) 2017A 0.3 -9.5 -11.1 5.2 -8.6 -1.9 -30.4 0.0 2018E 2.0 -18.5 -24.3 0.0 -6.6 -2.5 -25.5 0.0 2019E 13.8 -4.3 -20.7 0.0 -4.9 -3.3 57.7 0.0 2020E 24.9 2.8 -22.9 0.0 -5.5 -3.0 20.2 0.0 2021E 98.6 39.9 21.5 0.0 3.6 4.5 4.7 0.0 Source: Company data, CFE Research estimates Figures exclude exceptional items 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Price Re la tive

Transcript of SIMEC Atlantis EnergySource: Company data, CFE Research estimates This deviation is in line with the...

Page 1: SIMEC Atlantis EnergySource: Company data, CFE Research estimates This deviation is in line with the UK whole country average for ROC-backed wind generation which has a standard deviation

This is a marketing communication. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition of dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. However, CFE has put in place procedures and controls designed to prevent dealing ahead of marketing communications. For institutional clients use only. Please see important regulatory disclaimers and disclosures on pages 10-12

A stronger footing

With the completion of a £5m equity raise, we think that SIMEC Atlantis should

be able to bring in sufficient debt or other finance to complete the acquisition

of Green Highland Renewables (“GHR”). This will place the company on a much

stronger footing financially as GHR will be cash generating from day one, initially

contributing an annualised £11m in EBITDA. Along with the 25% funding of

Uskmouth from Equitix announced in November, the company is now in a

position where it should not need to seek any additional equity funding to

achieve its main targets. Our target price changes principally to reflect the

dilution on the equity raise and moves to 84p from 86p and we reiterate our

BUY recommendation.

Funding structure appropriate for these assets

SIMEC Atlantis has raised £5m through the issue of 31.4m shares, and will issue a matching

number of shares to SIMEC, the GHR vendor. This will allow the company to secure the

acquisition with completion to follow on the finalisation of c.£25m of new funding which we

expect to be debt based. While higher gearing could be seen as additional risk, we think the

lower earnings volatility of the GHR assets significantly mitigates this. The expected inter

annual variation in output from this portfolio is lower than normal for hydro. Pricing is also

less volatile with the vast majority of the price fixed in real terms (RPI) for twenty years.

Forecasts adjusted for revised terms and accounting changes

Our forecasts already included a conservative assumption of the GHR deal. We have adjusted

these for the actual timing of the deal, which we expect to be slightly ahead together with

changes for the actual funding structure. This now includes more debt and as a result, dilution

is less than we originally expected. We are also taking the opportunity to adjust our reported

profit forecasts for a probable revised accounting treatment of the Uskmouth acquisition,

reducing reported numbers. This has no impact on cash or valuation with the main change

being that capitalised interest and development costs now move on to the P&L and out of

capex in the cashflow statement.

01 April 2019 | Corporate Company Note | Alternative Energy & Resource Efficiency

Equity Research | UK

SIMEC Atlantis Energy ( AIM : SAE LN )

BUY

Share Price (as at close: 29/03/2019) 16.5 p

Target Price 84p (from 86p)

Upside to TP 408.8%

Market Cap (£'m) 60.4

Net Debt (£'m) 32.3

Enterprise Value (£'m) 92.7

Shares in Issue (m) 429.1

Free Float (%) 46.0%

Average Daily Volume (000, -3m) 73.0

12 month high/low 42 p/11.75 p

(%) 1m 3m 12m

Absolute -19.5 -31.2 n.a.

FTA relative -21.0 -37.0 n.a.

Price & price relative (-2 year)

Source: Datastream

Next News

Prelims - Q2 2019

Business

Independent renewable power producer

www.simecatlantis.com

Adam Forsyth

Research Analyst

+44 (0) 20 7894 7214

[email protected]

Year end

December

Revenue

(£'m)

EBIT

(£'m)

PBT

(£'m)

Tax

(%)

EPS (FD)

(p)

PER

(x)

EV/EBITDA

(x)

Div Yield

(%) 2017A 0.3 -9.5 -11.1 5.2 -8.6 -1.9 -30.4 0.0 2018E 2.0 -18.5 -24.3 0.0 -6.6 -2.5 -25.5 0.0

2019E 13.8 -4.3 -20.7 0.0 -4.9 -3.3 57.7 0.0 2020E 24.9 2.8 -22.9 0.0 -5.5 -3.0 20.2 0.0 2021E 98.6 39.9 21.5 0.0 3.6 4.5 4.7 0.0

Source: Company data, CFE Research estimates Figures exclude exceptional items

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

Price Relative

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SIMEC Atlantis Energy | 01 April 2019 Green Highland Renewables

Green Highland Renewables

The Green Highland Renewables (“GHR”) business represents quality run-of-river hydro

projects in the west of the Scottish Highlands with 20MW of operating capacity and 7.9MW

under construction or in late stage development.

Better than average output

The GHR portfolio is a strong one in our view. The 20MW of operating run-of-river projects

have an average load factor of 50% based on the P50 output assumptions. This compares

with 37.9% for UK small-scale hydro projects on average, and 35.8% for all UK hydro. The high

output is easily explained by the location of the sites which are coincident with the wetter

parts of the UK. There is a good north-south geographic spread of the assets with a westerly

bias in areas of high rainfall and avoiding the more easterly areas that can be affected by rain

shadow.

GHR Projects in Context

Source: Met Office, Company Data, © British Crown copyright, Met Office.

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Green Highland Renewables SIMEC Atlantis Energy | 01 April 2019

Grid connections

In addition to securing good sites, GHR has shown innovative development skills, being able

to secure grid connections for dispersed sites by linking groups of assets via private wire

connections and connecting to the grid at more convenient locations. Roughly half of the

portfolio has been connected in this way.

A generous subsidy regime

Most of the sites are on the UK feed-in-tariff (“FIT”) support regime with accreditation dates

exposing them to some of the more generous early tariffs. These last for 20 years from

accreditation and are index linked using the more generous RPI measure. Later feed-in-tariff

levels were reduced to reflect falling technology costs even though this did not really apply

in hydro and the scheme was withdrawn for new projects from 31 March 2019. While still to

be completed, the GHR projects at Nathrach and Glen Kinglass were accredited before the

cut-off date will receive the subsidy if they are completed within 24 months of the

accreditation date, which we do not see as problematic.

O&M revenues

The business has also secured operations and maintenance contracts with a number of

projects outside their own portfolio. This adds some useful marginal income and also keeps

the company in touch with potential acquisition opportunities.

Completing the portfolio

While the FIT regime has now ended for new projects, making new run-of-river hydro

uneconomic at current wholesale prices, it is likely that existing accredited assets will come

onto the market over time. GHR should be well-placed to identify value here and pick up sites

at profitable prices. In particular there are a number of projects funded under the Enterprise

Investment Scheme (“EIS”) which are coming up to the end of the three year period after

which realisations can be made free from CGT and the tax driven investors are likely to want

to seek liquidity. GHR is close to this market and has identified 25MW to 30MW of additional

capacity.

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SIMEC Atlantis Energy | 01 April 2019 The funding

The funding

SIMEC has raised £5m in new equity mainly from existing shareholders with 31.4m new

shares issued. It will also issue the same number of shares to SIMEC, the vendor of the GHR

business. The remaining funding will be met with debt. The bulk of the debt will be a c. £90m

term loan facility with a syndicate of major banks. An additional £24.5m facility will allow the

remaining construction of Nathrach and Glen Kinglass to be financed and the 50% stake in

Allt Garbh to be acquired. We expect that the remaining shortfall in the acquisition

consideration of c.£25m will most likely be funded by additional debt.

Deal funding

£m

Enterprise value 124.7

Term loan 90.0 Equity raise 5.0 Share consideration 5.0

Funded 100.0 Residual 24.7

Source: Company data

The overall level of debt is higher than we had originally envisaged when the acquisition was

announced in November 2018. However, we do not see this as unnecessarily risky. We

estimate the standard deviation of output across the portfolio at 13% of the mean (i.e. the

coefficient of variation). The GHR portfolio benefits from some low variability sites, notably

at Loch Eilde Mor where the site benefits from a particularly large catchment including the

loch itself.

Expected output and standard deviation

Scheme P50 Output (MWh) P90 Output (MWh) δ δ (%)

Loch Eilde Mor Ph1 17,764 17,037 567 3% Loch Eilde Mor Ph2 15,481 12,156 2,594 17% Ceannacroc: Glen Fada 4,350 3,571 608 14%

Ceannacroc: Allt Coire Sgreumh 1,881 1,482 311 17% Mullardoch 1,743 1,392 274 16% Allt Gleann nam Fiadh 7,474 5,549 1,502 20%

Allt Garbh 4,608 3,550 825 18% Coulags 4,969 3,840 881 18% Shenval 1,963 1,705 201 10%

Nathrach 7,091 5,805 1,003 14% Glenkinglass 20,160 16,325 2,991 15% TOTAL 87,484 72,412 11,757 13%

Source: Company data, CFE Research estimates

This deviation is in line with the UK whole country average for ROC-backed wind generation

which has a standard deviation of 12% and much lower than the hydro average at 19%.

However the wind figure benefits from the full distribution across the country and any

individual portfolio of wind farms will see higher variability. We have seen data suggesting

standard deviations ranging from 14% to 28%. Project finance for these projects is available

at up to 80% gearing levels.

Price volatility is also low the GHR portfolio with 14 of the 15 operational projects supported

by FITs which are fixed in real terms. Again, ROC-backed wind projects have roughly 50% of

revenues exposed to wholesale power prices. Consultants Redpoint in their analysis of the

UK’s Electricity Market Reform programme estimated that fixed prices could increase gearing

for onshore wind by 25% and CfDs by 15%. While they did not estimate the impact on hydro

the similarly of the GHR output standard deviation to wind suggest a similar uplift from the

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The funding SIMEC Atlantis Energy | 01 April 2019

fixed pricing available under the FIT scheme. This would theoretically suggest that gearing of

at least 92% should be supportable, in line the revised funding structure.

The acquisition also brings a strong management team

GHR has a proven track record in developing projects and the team will join the SIMEC Atlantis

team. The key personal include Stephen Hutt, MD and CFO, Ian Cartwright, Chief Operating

Officer and Alex Reading, International Development. We think the quality of the portfolio

they have put together reflects the quality of this team and we think it bodes well for both

the completion of the existing projects and the sourcing of new ones.

The team is the most recent addition to a strengthening management team at SIMEC Atlantis.

The company has hired Andy Richardson as Group COO and Ernie Rowe as head of conversion

at Uskmouth. It has also appointed Ian Wakelin as a non-executive.

Ian Wakelin was previously CEO of waste management company Biffa plc and led the IPO of

the business in 2016. He was previously co-founder and CEO of Greenstar UK, a waste

management and recycling business which was acquired by Biffa in 2010. He brings significant

waste management expertise to the board which in our view helps to derisk any potential

feedstock issues.

Andy Richardson was executive Director of Thermal & Renewables at EDF with main Board

responsibility for gas storage, onshore and offshore wind development (>0.5GW), biomass

and thermal generation (5.4GW). He has also held positions as Head of Asset Management

and Engineering Manager at Alstom Power Service UK and, most recently, COO of Stanwell

Corporation, a diversified, vertically integrated energy company with a range of electricity

generation assets in Australia.

Ernie Rowe was previously Major Projects, R&D and Risk Manager at Drax Group where he

was responsible for the £700m conversion of 2,000MW of coal capacity to burn biomass and

the £85m repowering of 400MW to biomass co-firing. He also had engineering R&D

responsibility for biomass and fuel chemistry and biomass wood pellets and on the original

R&D process for the initial unit conversion to biomass including milling, combustion and

emissions optimisation, boiler conditioning, fuel chemistry and ash handling.

The SIMEC pipeline - the model is now proven

When SIMEC Atlantis executed the acquisition of Uskmouth Power station from the GFG

Alliance it also gained a right of first offer on assets in the SIMEC portfolio of generation assets

in the UK and Australia. This now totals over 650MW of gross capacity. The GHR portfolio is

the first deal to be executed under this arrangement. We think the consideration has been

done at a fair price which adds value to SIMEC Atlantis. If SIMEC Atlantis can add similar value

with the rest of the portfolio we see further upside for shareholders. We believe that there

are some very strong assets remaining.

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SIMEC Atlantis Energy | 01 April 2019 Financials

Financials

Changed accounting treatment of early Uskmouth costs

We have reviewed the accounting treatment of the Uskmouth acquisition and believe that

there is now a probability that the company will be required to recognise more significant

depreciation on the acquired assets to be included in the FY 2018 numbers and beyond with

a recapitalisation when the conversion is finalised. This would mean over £5m of additional

depreciation and also see a similar level of the deal costs appear on the P&L rather than being

capitalised as we had previously assumed. These changes are purely accounting changes and

do not affect cashflow or our valuation. The treatment is not confirmed but we think it

sensible to be prudent and we reduce our forecast reported profit in FY 18, 19 and 20.*

Forecast revisions

Our forecasts already assumed the completion of the GHR acquisition from July with an

equity funding of £14.85m at 35p. In outturn we expect the completion slightly earlier and

the financing now to comprise more debt and less equity but the equity is at a lower price.

The dilution impact is slightly less overall and the impact of the additional debt is not overly

dramatic.

As a result of the accounting changes our PBT in FY 18 reduces to -£24.3m from -£13.6m and

EPS to -6.5p from -3.5p. In FY 19, the accounting changes plus higher interest reduces PBT to

-£20.7m from -£3.8m. EPS is also adjusted for the new shares to move to -4.9p from -1.1p. In

FY 20, PBT reduces to -£22.9m from £2.6m and EPS to -5.5p from 0.1p. The accounting

changes have no impact on forecasts from 2021 onwards other than higher ongoing

depreciation as these are changes associated with the pre conversion costs only. However

the accounting changes confuse the picture and we have set out all our changes in the table

below.

Forecast Change Analysis

£,000 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e

Old forecast revenue 1,971 13,707 23,949 98,508 Timing on GHR 0 142 966 75

New forecast revenue 1,971 13,849 24,915 98,583

Old forecast operating profit -11,395 111 9,253 43,703

Timing on GHR 3,000 78 440 0 Deprecition change -5,317 -4,499 -6,895 -3,801 Capitalised development costs brought back -4,783 0 0 0

New forecast operating profit -18,495 -4,311 2,798 39,903

Old forecast PBT -13,550 -3,796 2,596 26,363 Operating profit changes above -7,100 -4,421 -6,455 -3,801

Capitalised interest brought back -3,953 -8,942 -9,573 0 interest impact of higher gearing 346 -3,576 -9,420 -1,059 New forecast PBT -24,258 -20,735 -22,852 21,504

Old forecast net profit -12,924 -4,849 226 18,993 PBT changes above -10,707 -16,940 -25,447 -4,859

Tax effect 0 624 1,427 1,470 New forecast net profit -23,631 -21,165 -23,794 15,604

Old forecast shares 366,199 451,056 451,056 451,056

New forecast shares 366,199 429,078 429,078 429,078 Old forecast EPS -3.5 -1.1 0.1 4.2 New forecast EPS -6.5 -4.9 -5.5 3.6

Source: CFE Research estimates

*Those who find these accounting decisions rather tedious might light to know that the University of Edinburgh Business School will host a lecture on Thursday entitled “Bean Counters: The Triumph of the Accountants and How They Broke Capitalism”.

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Cantor Fitzgerald Europe Research 7

Financials SIMEC Atlantis Energy | 01 April 2019

Valuation and risk

Our DCF valuation principally reflects the lower level of dilution less the new debt relative to

our initial forecast. We had originally assumed the issue of 84.9m shares whereas we are now

factoring in 62.8m but an additional £25m of debt. The overall impact is to reduce the

valuation slightly to 84p from 86p. The key risks to this valuation are execution risk at MeyGen

and Uskmouth and residual financing risk.

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8 Cantor Fitzgerald Europe Research

SIMEC Atlantis Energy | 01 April 2019 Financial model

Financial model

Income Statement (£'m)

Year end December 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E Turbine and Engineering Services 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Consolidated Project Income 0.3 2.0 13.7 24.6 98.6 Grants 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0

Project development 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Group revenue 0.3 2.0 13.8 24.9 98.6

Turbine and Engineering Services -10.0 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6

Consolidated Project Income 0.0 -1.2 7.5 14.6 50.0 Grants 1.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 Project development -0.6 -16.7 -11.3 -11.5 -9.4

Adjusted operating profit -9.5 -18.5 -4.3 2.8 39.9 Associates and other income 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Adjusted EBIT -9.5 -18.5 -4.3 2.8 39.9

Finance Costs -1.6 -5.8 -16.4 -25.7 -18.4 Adjusted PBT -11.1 -24.3 -20.7 -22.9 21.5 Exceptional items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Reported PBT -11.1 -24.3 -20.7 -22.9 21.5 Reported tax 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Adjusted tax rate 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Reported PAT -10.6 -24.3 -20.7 -22.9 21.5 Minority interests -0.3 0.6 -0.4 -0.9 -5.9 Discontinued businesses 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Earnings attributable to shareholders -10.8 -23.6 -21.2 -23.8 15.6

Shares in issue (m) 126.0 366.2 429.1 429.1 429.1 Average weighted capital (FD) (m) 126.0 366.2 429.1 429.1 429.1 Adjusted EPS (FD) (p) -8.6 -6.6 -4.9 -5.5 3.6

Reported EPS (FD) (p) -8.6 -6.5 -4.9 -5.5 3.6 DPS (payable) (p) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Source: Company data, CFE Research estimates

Performance Metrics

Year end December 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E Revenue growth (%) 28.1 554.7 602.7 79.9 295.7 Adjusted EBITDA growth (%) n.a. n.a. n.a. 185.9 325.2

Adjusted EBIT growth (%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1325.9 Adjusted PBT growth (%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Adjusted EPS growth (%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

DPS payable growth (%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Dividend cover (x) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

Adjusted EBITDA margin (%) -3035.9 -554.0 34.8 55.3 59.4 Adjusted EBIT margin (%) -3163.5 -938.5 -31.1 11.2 40.5

Interest cover (x) 5.9 3.2 0.3 0.1 2.2 Net cash/(debt)/adjusted EBITDA (x) 3.5 1.9 -45.2 -23.3 -4.9 Net cash/(debt)/equity (%) -53.7 -17.0 -172.1 -243.5 -194.5

Net working capital/revenue (%) -1678.4 -400.0 -27.9 -15.5 -3.9

Operating cashflow conversion (%) 52.4 46.8 -18.5 492.1 146.7

Return on assets employed (%) -9.9 -11.9 -1.6 0.7 11.1 Return on equity (%) -17.5 -20.3 -16.4 -17.3 14.6

Source: Company data, CFE Research estimates

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Financial model SIMEC Atlantis Energy | 01 April 2019

Cashflow Statement (£'m)

Year end December 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E Operating profit -9.5 -18.5 -4.3 2.8 39.9

Depreciation and amortisation 0.4 7.6 9.1 11.0 18.6 Other non-cash movements 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Change in working capital 1.7 2.3 -4.0 0.0 0.0

Other cash movements 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Operating cashflow -5.0 -8.7 0.8 13.8 58.6 Taxation paid 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

Finance costs -0.3 -5.1 -16.9 -26.6 -24.3 Investment income 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Capitalised intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Capital expenditure (net) -10.3 -3.3 -117.5 -120.3 0.0 Free cashflow -15.5 -16.5 -133.6 -133.1 34.3 Other investing activities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Acquisitions/disposals (net) 0.7 0.0 -91.8 0.0 0.0 Dividends paid 0.0 0.0 23.1 29.4 0.0 Shares issued/(repurchased) 3.8 20.0 5.0 0.0 0.0

Other financial 0.9 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 Movement in net cash/(debt) -10.2 12.0 -197.3 -103.8 34.3

Net cash/(debt) b/fwd -22.1 -32.3 -20.3 -217.6 -321.4

Movement in net cash/(debt) -10.2 12.0 -197.3 -103.8 34.3 Net cash/(debt) c/fwd -32.3 -20.3 -217.6 -321.4 -287.1

Source: Company data, CFE Research estimates

Balance Sheet (£'m)

Year end December 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E Goodwill 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Intangible fixed assets 34.3 33.5 33.5 33.5 33.5

Tangible fixed assets 66.7 130.0 238.4 347.7 329.1 Net working capital -5.1 -7.9 -3.9 -3.9 -3.9 Assets employed 95.9 155.6 268.0 377.4 358.7

Other assets/(liabilities) 0.2 0.2 92.0 92.0 92.0 Net cash/(debt) -32.3 -20.3 -217.6 -321.4 -287.1 Pension deficit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Deferred tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Provisions -3.5 -15.9 -15.9 -15.9 -15.9 Net assets 60.2 119.5 126.4 132.0 147.6

Minority interests 8.3 8.1 31.2 60.6 60.6 Shareholders funds 68.6 127.6 157.6 192.6 208.2

Source: Company data, CFE Research estimates

Valuation Metrics

Year end December 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E EV / Revenue (x) 923.6 141.1 20.1 11.2 2.8 EV / Adjusted EBITDA (x) -30.4 -25.5 57.7 20.2 4.7

EV / Adjusted EBIT (x) -29.2 -15.0 -64.5 99.3 7.0 PER (x) -1.9 -2.5 -3.3 -3.0 4.5 Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

FCF yield (%) -25.7 -27.4 -221.2 -220.5 56.7 NAV/Share (p) 47.8 32.6 29.5 30.8 34.4

Source: Company data, CFE Research estimates

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The Research Analyst(s) on the front cover of this research note certifies (or, where multiple Research Analysts are primarily responsible for this research note, with respect to each security that the Research Analyst covers in this research) that; 1) all of the views expressed in this research note accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject companies and their securities; and 2) no part of any of the Research Analyst’s compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the Research Analyst(s) in this research note.

General disclosures

Cantor Fitzgerald Europe (“CFE”) is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”). “Research” is as that term is defined by the Markets in Financial Instrument Directive 2014/65/EU. “CFE Research” means Cantor Fitzgerald Europe Equity Research. “TP” means Target Price or Price Target. “UR” means Under Review. “NC” means this company is not being formally covered / has not been initiated on by any of the CFE Research team or any other affiliated Research team within the Cantor Fitzgerald Group. (Please note that the Cantor Fitzgerald Group does not include BGC Partners, Inc. and its Subsidiaries). Our research recommendations are defined with reference to the absolute return we expect on a long-term view: “BUY recommendation” means we expect the relevant financial instrument to produce a return of 10% or better in the next 12 months. “SELL” recommendation means that we expect the relevant financial instrument to decline by 10% or more in the next 12 months. “HOLD” recommendation means that we believe the financial instrument is fairly valued. This is Non-Independent Research and a marketing communication under the FCA’s Conduct of Business Rules. It is not Investment Research as defined by the FCA’s Rules and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote Investment Research independence and is also not subject to any legal prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of Investment Research. Notwithstanding this, CFE has procedures in place to manage conflicts of interest which may arise in the production of Research, which include measures designed to prevent dealing ahead of Research

This Research is a minor non-monetary benefit as set out in Article 12 (3) of the Commission Delegated Directive (EU) 2017/593 (e.g. the Research is paid for by a corporate client of CFE) and can be distributed free of charge.

No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of the information included in this Research and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Any or all forward-looking statements in this Research may prove to be incorrect and such statements may be affected by inaccurate assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. CFE does not undertake any obligation to revise such forward-looking statements to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events or changed circumstances. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not prove to be correct or otherwise realised. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

This Research is designed for information purposes only. Neither the information included herein, nor any opinion expressed, are deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any financial instrument or any option, futures or other related derivatives. Investors should consider this Research as only a single factor in making any investment decision. This Research is published on the basis that CFE is not acting in a fiduciary capacity. It is also published without regard to the recipient’s specific investment objectives of recipients and is not a personal recommendation. The value of any financial instrument, or the income derived from it, may fluctuate.

Certain financial instruments and/or transactions give rise to substantial risks and are not suitable for all investors. Investors must undertake independent analysis with their own legal, tax and financial advisers and reach their own conclusions regarding the economic benefits and risks of the financial instruments referred to herein and the legal, credit and tax aspects of any anticipated transaction. Where a financial instrument is denominated in a currency other than the local currency of the recipient, changes in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value of the financial instrument.

CFE, its officers, employees and affiliates may have a financial interest in the financial instruments described in this Research or otherwise buy, make markets in, hold trade or sell any financial instrument or financial instruments described herein or provide services to issuers discussed herein. The financial instruments mentioned herein may not be eligible for sale in some jurisdictions and may not be suitable for all types of investor. Investors should contact their CFE representative or third party advisor or broker if they have any questions or wish to discuss the contents of this Research.

This Research is only intended for publication to Eligible counterparties and Professional clients and not Retail clients (as those terms are defined by the FCA’s Rules). CFE staff, other than Research Analysts, may provide our clients with oral or written market commentary or trading strategies that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this Research. This Research is strictly confidential and is intended for the named recipient or recipients only. It may not be circulated or copied to any other party without the express permission of CFE. All rights reserved. This Research complies with CFE’s Policy on the management of conflicts of interest in relation to research.

Disclosures required by United States laws and regulations

This research note may be distributed by Cantor Fitzgerald Europe in the United States and, if so, would be intended for distribution in the United States solely to Major U.S. Institutional Investors (as defined in Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934) and is therefore not intended for the use of any U.S. person or entity that is not a Major Institutional Investor. U.S Major Institutional Investors receiving this research note should effect transactions in securities discussed in this research note through Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. This research note has been prepared in whole or in part by research analysts employed by a non-US affiliate of Cantor Fitzgerald & Co that are not registered as broker-dealers in the United States. These non-US research analysts are not registered as associated persons of Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. nor do they hold any FINRA research analysts qualifications. They have been granted an exemption under SEC Rule 15a-6 and are designated as foreign associated persons whereby they are permitted to distribute research to U.S. Major Institutional Investors.

Canada

This research note has been prepared by equity research analysts of Cantor Fitzgerald Europe not by Cantor Fitzgerald Canada Corporation (“CFCC”). This research note has not been prepared subject to the disclosure requirements of Dealer Member Rule 3400 – Research Restrictions and Disclosure Requirements of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organisation of Canada (“IIROC”). If this research note had been prepared by CFCC in compliance with IIROC’s disclosure requirements, CFCC would have been required to disclose when it and its affiliates collectively beneficially own 1% or more of any class of equity securities issued by the companies mentioned in this research note. However under FCA Rules, CFE must only disclose when it or any of its affiliates hold major shareholdings in the companies mentioned in this research note, including shareholdings exceeding 5% of such company’s total issued share capital. Cantor Fitzgerald Canada Corporation may distribute research notes prepared by any of its affiliates.

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Page 11: SIMEC Atlantis EnergySource: Company data, CFE Research estimates This deviation is in line with the UK whole country average for ROC-backed wind generation which has a standard deviation

Market Abuse Regulation

In accordance with the Market Abuse Regulation, we formally disclose by issuer the conflicts of interest relating to Cantor Fitzgerald Europe, our research analysts and relevant employees,

referenced to the points below.

The following tables set out conflicts of interest disclosed in accordance with the Market Abuse Regulation.

Company Name Disclosure reference (see Key below)

SIMEC Atlantis Energy (SAE LN) H,I,J, &K

Alstom SA (ALO PA) None

Biffa Plc (BIFF LN) None

Drax Group (DRX LN) None

EDF (Electricité de France) (EDF PA) None

GFG Alliance (Private Company) None

SIMEC (Private Company) None

Stanwell Corporation (Private Company) None

Where a recommendation has changed during last 12 months

Company Name Previous recommendation Date of change of recommendation

NA NA NA

Key

A This research report has been sent to the issuer and it has been amended. B Recommendation differs from previous recommendation made during preceding 12 months in relation to the same financial instrument. C The author(s) of this publication has a net long position of more than 0.5% in the issued share capital of the named company. D The author of this publication has a net short position of 0.5% or more in the issued share capital of the named company. E Cantor Fitzgerald Europe owns a net long position exceeding 0.5% of the total issued share capital of the named company. F Cantor Fitzgerald Europe owns a net short position exceeding 0.5% of the total issued share capital of the named company. G The named company holds in excess of 5% of the total issued share capital of Cantor Fitzgerald Europe. H Cantor Fitzgerald Europe, is a market maker or liquidity provider in the financial instruments of the named company (see note 1 below). I Cantor Fitzgerald Europe, or one of its affiliates, has been a lead manager or co-lead manager over the previous 12 months in a publicly disclosed offer of financial instruments of

the named company J Cantor Fitzgerald Europe, or one of its affiliates, is party to an agreement with the named company relating to the provision of services of investment firms, and this agreement

has been in effect over the past 12 months or has given rise during the same period to the obligation to pay or receive compensation K Cantor Fitzgerald Europe, or one of its affiliates, is party to an agreement with the named company relating to the production of this recommendation. Note 1: With regard to disclosure H above, affiliate companies may very occasionally make markets or provide liquidity in respect of issuers mentioned herein. Notwithstanding this, any such activities are not disclosed as a conflict of interest since affiliates’ market making activities are carried out independently of those of Cantor Fitzgerald Europe and would not in any way influence the producers of this research.

Other conflicts of interest to be disclosed in accordance with the Market Abuse Regulation

Company Name Nature of conflict

NA NA

Please see our webpage www.cantor.com/legal/marinvestmentrecommendation for additional disclosures in relation to the Market Abuse Regulation including:

Analysts methodologies and proprietary models;

Internal controls in relation to conflicts of interest;

Remuneration;

History of investment recommendations; and

Quarterly data on investment recommendations.

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You can tell us you do not wish to receive such communications by emailing [email protected].

Page 12: SIMEC Atlantis EnergySource: Company data, CFE Research estimates This deviation is in line with the UK whole country average for ROC-backed wind generation which has a standard deviation

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CFE Research Team

Name Phone E-Mail

Adam Forsyth | Alternative Energy & Resource Efficiency +44 (0) 207 894 7214 [email protected] Mark Photiades | Consumer – General Retail +44 (0) 207 894 7560 [email protected] Stephen Anstee | Generalist – Smaller Companies +44 (0) 207 894 8298 [email protected]

Kevin Lapwood | Generalist – Smaller Companies +44 (0) 207 894 7560 [email protected] Ian Poulter | Generalist – Smaller Companies +44 (0) 207 894 8298 [email protected] Brian White | Healthcare +44 (0) 131 257 4621 [email protected]

Markuz Jaffe | Investment Companies +44 (0) 207 894 8623 [email protected] Ashley Kelty | Oil & Gas +44 (0) 131 257 4631 [email protected] Jack Allardyce | Oil & Gas +44 (0) 131 257 4632 [email protected]

Kevin Ashton | Technology +44 (0) 207 894 7851 [email protected] Harold Evans | Technology +44 (0) 207 894 8357 [email protected] Robin Byde | Industrials & Transport +44 (0) 207 894 7859 [email protected]

Cameron Imray | Research Associate +44 (0) 207 894 7565 [email protected] Jenny Phillips | Research Production +44 (0) 207 894 7568 [email protected] Debbie Santell | Research Production +44 (0) 207 894 8334 [email protected]

CFE Research Sales Team

Name Phone E-Mail

Maisie Atkinson +44 (0) 207 894 7670 [email protected] Keith Dowsing +44 (0) 207 894 7908 [email protected]

Arthur Gordon +44 (0) 207 894 8526 [email protected] Andrew Keith +44 (0) 207 786 3733 [email protected] Gregor Paterson +44 (0) 131 257 4633 [email protected]

Caspar Shand Kydd +44 (0) 207 894 7140 [email protected] Richard Sloss +44 (0) 207 786 3734 [email protected]

Global Equity Research locations

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