Silver Bullet Healthy Utah Polling Memo 20150415

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POLLING MEMORANDUM

TO: INTERESTED PARTIES

FROM: WPA OPINION RESEARCH

SUBJECT: HEALTHY UTAH

DATE: APRIL 15, 2015

The following memorandum highlights the key findings from a Wilson Perkins Allen poll

conducted on behalf of Silver Bullet, LLC. The Utah statewide poll was conducted among 500

likely general election voters and was conducted March 31-April 2, 2015. The full sample

has a margin of error equal to 4.4%.

SUPPORT FOR HEALTHY UTAH DROPS BELOW 50% AMONG INFORMED VOTERS A majority of voters are not ready to support Healthy Utah when reminded that there is no

such thing as free federal money. Initially support for the healthcare proposal was 56

percent when the question was posed as Utah getting more money from the federal

government. However support fell to 47 percent, below a majority, once voters were

informed about the financial effects of Healthy Utah on the federal budget. Respondents

were asked the following question describing the Healthy Utah proposal.

Currently there is a proposal in Utah to expand state-administered, federal-

healthcare benefits to potentially tens of thousands of more Utahns. The

State of Utah will be reimbursed for only two years by the federal government

for providing this expansion of healthcare benefits. Do you support or

oppose Utah accepting more federal dollars so it can provide more

healthcare benefits?

Results Initial Response Informed Response

Total Support 56% 47%

Total Oppose 28% 40%

Not only does overall support diminish and opposition increase when general election voters

become informed, but the intensity of strong opposition increases to nearly the same

percentage as those who are strongly support the healthcare proposal.

2015 WPA Opinion Research

Do not copy or distribute without permission

Confidential Page 2 of 7 4/15/2015

Do you support or oppose Utah accepting more federal dollars so it can

provide more healthcare benefits?

Driving the drop in support for the healthcare proposal are the messages of the long-term

financial consequences to the national economy and the financial burden that future

generations will be under.

Now, I am going to read you some brief statements that you might hear

about the healthcare proposal. For each statement, please tell me whether

this information would make you more likely to support or oppose healthcare

proposal, or if it makes no difference either way.

Total

Support

Total

Oppose

Theres no such thing as free federal money. The proposal increases deficit spending, the national

debt, and the interest owed to foreign countries; all

of which, hurts the dollars buying power, and reduces the value of savings and retirement

accounts.

33% 44%

The proposal increases generational debt our

children and grandchildren will have to pay to the

federal government for decades to come.

23% 50%

34%26%

16%16%

15%

12%

12%

11%

23%35%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Initial Informed

Strongly Oppose

Somewhat Oppose

Undecided

Somewhat Support

Strongly Support




In addition to the messages of the indirect financial consequences, Utahns were also moved

to oppose Healthy Utah when they were informed that they may later have to directly pay for

the healthcare proposal that expands Medicaid to a larger population made possible by the

passage of Obamacare.

For each statement, please tell me whether this information would make you

more likely to support or oppose healthcare proposal, or if it makes no

difference either way.

Total

Support

Total

Oppose

Once a new government subsidy is granted to a

population, it is hardly ever taken away. Should the

federal government ever cut funding for Obamacare,

Utah taxpayers would most likely end up paying for

Obamacares mandates forever with higher state income taxes.

22% 57%

House Ways and Means Chairman, Paul Ryan, has

said that within the next two years states, like Utah,

will have to pay a much larger share of the costs of

this proposal to expand healthcare benefits.

27% 39%

The proposal increases the population who become

dependent on government handouts.

18% 56%

The proposal is an expansion of government-run

healthcare in Utah to young, healthy, single, able-

bodied adults whose earnings are up to thirty-eight

percent above the poverty line, many of whom

already have coverage.

25% 44%




OBAMA VOTERS AND SELF-IDENTIFIED LIBERALS ARE TOP GROUPS IN SUPPORT

OF HEALTHY UTAH Political ideology and party affiliation are likely factors as to whether or not a voter supports

Healthy Utah. The top groups of voters to support and oppose Healthy Utah are directly

opposite of each other. Liberals and Democrats are more than twice as likely to support the

healthcare proposal as conservatives and Republicans are to opposing it.

Top Groups

To Support Healthy Utah %

Voted for Obama in 2012 89%

Liberal 88%

Democrat 74%

To Oppose Healthy Utah %

Conservative 41%

Republican 38%

UTAHNS WANT MORE STATE PLANNING FOR FEDERAL BUDGET WOES One-third, or about four billion dollars, of Utahs state budget comes from federal government sources. When told this, Utahns want their state government to plan ahead for

federal budget cuts by a margin of nearly two-to-one.

Would you support or oppose a law requiring the Utah legislature to list how it

will fund state-provided government services that are partially or wholly

funded by Washington D.C. if federal funding is cut?

TOTAL SUPPORT 62%

TOTAL OPPOSE 23%

1. Strongly Support 44%

2. Somewhat Support 18%

3. Undecided/DK/Refused DNR 15%

4. Somewhat Oppose 9%

5. Strongly Oppose 15%




INFORMED VOTERS IN THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY ARE MORE OPPOSED TO

HEALTHY UTAH THAN GENERAL ELECTION VOTERS Combined, both Republican and unaffiliated voters who can vote in a Republican Primary

Election are less likely to support Healthy Utah. The initial support/oppose gap of 15 percent

found among likely voters in the Republican Primary is only about half the size of the starting

gap found among likely General Election voters. After primary voters were reminded of the

added financial burdens the healthcare proposal would place on the nation and future

generations, those who opposed Healthy Utah outnumbered those who supported it.

Do you support or oppose Utah accepting more federal dollars so it can

provide more healthcare benefits?

Results Initial Response Informed Response

Total Support 50% 42%

Total Oppose 35% 46%

Informed likely primary voters who strongly oppose the healthcare proposal have an intensity

advantage of nine-points over those who support it.

Of the 500 surveys fielded, 251 surveys qualified as likely voters in the Republican Primary,

which are defined as those who expressed a high interest in voting in the 2016 Primary

election and are registered Republicans or unaffiliated with any party.

34%26%

16%16%

15%

12%

12%

11%

23%35%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Initial Informed

Strongly Oppose

Somewhat Oppose

Undecided

Somewhat Support

Strongly Support




FINDINGS

Expansion of healthcare benefits is desired by a majority of Utahns until the financial consequences are considered.

Support for Healthy Utah wanes once voters are reminded that increased federal spending increases the federal deficit and adds to the national debt, a debt that

future generations will have to pay.

Utahns are concerned about the possibility that in the near future they may have to pay for the increased federal subsidies by raising state income taxes.

Utahns are worried about growing the population dependent on the government for subsidized healthcare.

Liberals and Democrats are the most likely groups to support the healthcare proposal, while conservatives and Republicans are the top groups opposed to it.

Those who oppose the healthcare proposal outnumber those who support it among informed Republicans and unaffiliated voters who expressed a high interest in voting

in the 2016 Primary election.

Nearly two-thirds of Utahns want the state to plan to fund government services in case federal funding is cut.




Methodology WPA Opinion Research conducted a statewide study in Utah of likely general election voters.

Respondents were screened to ensure that they were not a member of the news media, a

public relations company, or a political campaign. The sample for this survey was selected

randomly using registration based sampling and was stratified based on gender, age,

ethnicity, party, and geography. This methodology minimized post-survey weighting which

can reduce the reliability of survey results. Respondents were contacted on landline and

mobile telephones via a live operator interview between March 31 and April 2, 2015. The

study has a sample size of 500 likely general election voters and a margin of error equal to

+4.4%.

About Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research Since 1998, WPA Opinion Research has been a leading provider of political polling for

campaigns in all 50 states and several foreign countries. WPA has been nationally

recognized for our efforts to provide cutting edge research. The American Association of

Political Consultants (AAPC) awarded a Pollie to WPA for our Predictive Analytics work. The award highlighted WPAs Adaptive Sampling and Predictive Analytics methodologies which allowed us to outperform national polling trends and deliver industry-leading results.

Silver Bullet Healthy Utah Polling Memo 20150415

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