SICENTER Ljubljana, Slovenia Time for a fresh start But time is not on our side Urgent need for more...
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![Page 1: SICENTER Ljubljana, Slovenia Time for a fresh start But time is not on our side Urgent need for more R&D resources for Lisbon strategy Ljubljana, June.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022083009/5697bf861a28abf838c8834d/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
SICENTERLjubljana, Slovenia
Time for a fresh startBut time is not on our side
Urgent need for more R&D resources for Lisbon strategy
Ljubljana, June 13, 2005
Professor Pavle Sicherl
SICENTER and University of LjubljanaEmail: [email protected]; www.sicenter.si
Copyright © 1995-2005 P. Sicherl All rights reserved
![Page 2: SICENTER Ljubljana, Slovenia Time for a fresh start But time is not on our side Urgent need for more R&D resources for Lisbon strategy Ljubljana, June.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022083009/5697bf861a28abf838c8834d/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
141
111 113 114
183
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
Income (GDP percapita)
Employment Rate Annual HoursWorked
Productivity (GDPper hour)
R&D Investment(R&D per capita)
Ind
ex E
U=
100
(200
3)
(2002)
Differences with the USA are much larger for R&D per capita (index USA/EU15=183) than for GDP per capita (index 141).
![Page 3: SICENTER Ljubljana, Slovenia Time for a fresh start But time is not on our side Urgent need for more R&D resources for Lisbon strategy Ljubljana, June.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022083009/5697bf861a28abf838c8834d/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Time
EU
tim
e la
g i
n y
ears
Employment Rate R&D Investment (R&D per capita) Income (GDP per capita)
Productivity (GDP per employed) Productivity (GDP per hour)
US=0
The time lag behind the USA over time has been the highest for employment rate and R&D per capita (25 and 23 years)
Source: P. Sicherl, A Comparison of European and US Economies Based on Time Distances, EUROCHAMBRES, Brussels, March 2005.
![Page 4: SICENTER Ljubljana, Slovenia Time for a fresh start But time is not on our side Urgent need for more R&D resources for Lisbon strategy Ljubljana, June.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022083009/5697bf861a28abf838c8834d/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
EU catch-up - year in which EU15 catches up with the US under various assumptions
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2110
2120
2130
0.5% 1% 1.5% 2% 2.5% 3% 3.5% 4% 4.5% 5%
Assumed positive difference of EU15 growth rate over that of the US
Ye
ar
of
ca
tch
up
R&D Investment (R&D per capita)
Income (GDP per capita)
Productivity (GDP per employed)
Productivity (GDP per hour)
Employment Rate
Small improvements are no match for the large gap. If growth rate for R&D per capita for EU15 would be only 0.5% higher
than that of the USA, the catch up would take place only in 2123, for 1% higher growth rate only in 2063. We need a big push.
Source: P. Sicherl, A Comparison of European and US Economies Based on Time Distances, EUROCHAMBRES, Brussels, March 2005.
![Page 5: SICENTER Ljubljana, Slovenia Time for a fresh start But time is not on our side Urgent need for more R&D resources for Lisbon strategy Ljubljana, June.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022083009/5697bf861a28abf838c8834d/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
The competitive position is much better measured by R&D per capita or R&D per employed than by the share of R&D in GDP.
• The target of 3% share of R&D in GDP is a good mobilisation instrument in the medium term. However, even if implemented it would not mean catching up or even surpassing the USA in R&D per capita at such time
• Assumption that EU15 would reach 3% of R&D/GDP already in 2003: Index USA/EU15 2003: GERD/GDP 0.92 x GDP per capita 1.40 = GERD per capita 1.29
• Even if the target of 3% share would be implemented already in 2003, because of much lower GDP per capita the R&D per capita would be in this hypothetical situation in the USA still higher than in the EU15 by 29 percent (or by 27 percent for R&D per employed).
• Europe has to do much better for Lisbon strategy.