SHORTSHORT- ---TERMTERM ECONOMICECONOMIC … · 2 -Manufacture of fabricated metal products 3...

MFRSMMFRSMMFRSMMFRSM....FFFF.8.5/9.8.5/9.8.5/9.8.5/9----2222

Ministry of Finance

Republic of North Macedonia

Dame Gruev Street, no. 12, Skopje


+389 2 3255 597

www.finance.gov.mk

––––––

SHORTSHORTSHORTSHORT----TERMTERMTERMTERM ECONOMICECONOMICECONOMICECONOMIC

TRENDSTRENDSTRENDSTRENDS

MarchMarchMarchMarch, 201, 201, 201, 2019999


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CONTENTSCONTENTSCONTENTSCONTENTS

Summary ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 2

I. Real Sector

Industrial Production ............................................................................................................................................................... 3

Number of Employees in the Industry ............................................................................................................................ 4

Business Tendencies in Manufacturing ......................................................................................................................... 5

Number of Issued Building Permits and Expected Value of Works ............................................................... 5

Inflation .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 6

Stock Market Prices ................................................................................................................................................................. 7

2. Foreign Trade

Export ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 8

Import .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 9

Trade Balance ............................................................................................................................................................................. 10

Currency Structure ................................................................................................................................................................. 11

3. Fiscal Sector

Budget revenues according to the economic clasiffication ............................................................................... 11

Revenues by budget users .............................................................................................................................................. …..13

Budget expenditures according to the economic clasiffication ……………………………………..….....……........14

Expenditures by budget users ....................................................................................................................................................15

Budget Balance ....................................................................................................................................................................…..16

4. Social Sector

Number of Newly Employed and Registered Unemployed Persons in EARNM……………………………...17

Wages ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 18

Pensions ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 18

5. Monetary Sector

Primary Money .......................................................................................................................................................................... 19

Deposit Potential .................................................................................................................................................................... 20

Bank Credits ............................................................................................................................................................................... 21

Interest Rates of Deposit Banks ...................................................................................................................................... 21

Capital Market .......................................................................................................................................................................... 22

Reserve assets .......................................................................................................................................................................... 22


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SUMMARYSUMMARYSUMMARYSUMMARY

OF THE MOST IMPORTANT SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC TRENDS

March 2019

� Industrial production surged by 7.5% in March 2019 compared to the same month last year;

� Consumer prices in March 2019 increased by 1.4% compared to March 2018, following the

1.1% increase in February 2019;

� Export in the period January - March 2019 surged by 16.8%, while import grew by 11.5%,

resulting in decrease of the trade deficit by 3.1% compared to the same period in 2018;

� In the period January–March 2019, total budget revenues reached an amount of Denar

46,076 million, i.e. 6.6% of GDP, showing higher performance by 6.2% in relation to the

same period in 2018;

� Total budget expenditures amounted to Denar 49,270 million in the period January -

March 2019, i.e. they accounted for 7.1% of GDP, being higher by 6.0% compared to the same

period in 2018;

� Total credits of banks in March 2019 grew by 9.0% compared to March 2018, while total

deposit potential of banks surged by 11.1%.


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-5

0

5

10

15

20

III

2018

IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII I II III

2019

Chart 1.1: Industrial production

(growth rates in %)

Industrial production Manufacturing

Source: SSO.

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

III

2018


2019

Chart 1.2: Structure of industrial production growth

(contributions in p.p.)

Mining and quarrying Manufacturing

Electricity supply Industrial production

Source: SSO.

1. 1. 1. 1. REAL SECTORREAL SECTORREAL SECTORREAL SECTOR

Industrial ProductionIndustrial ProductionIndustrial ProductionIndustrial Production

Industrial production surged by

7.5% in March 2019 compared to the

same month last year. Main driving

force of growth was

Manufacturing, experiencing 8.8%

growth (contribution of 6.8 p.p.),

while growth was also registered in

Mining and quarrying of 10.8%

(contribution of 1.2 p.p.), while

Electricity, gas, steam and air-

conditioning supply sector dropped

by 4.6% (contribution of -0.6 p.p.).

In March 2019, growth in production was registered at 16 out of total of 27 industrial

branches, comprising 59.5% in the total production structure. As regards higher value-

added branches, Manufacture of machinery and equipment contributed the most

thereto, accounting for 41.2% in March 2019 and a contribution of 4.0 p.p., whereby

Manufacture of electrical equipment experienced a growth of 19,7%, which contribution

to total production accounted for 0.8 p.p.. In March 2019, drop of 2.5% was registered at

Manufacture of food products, which negative contribution to total production

accounted for 0.2 p.p.. Especially high growth in March 2019 was recorded at repair and

installation of machinery and equipment by 114.1%, however, due to the insignificant

share in this sector, its contribution accounts for only 0.6 p.p.. Manufacture of

beverages continues to register two-digit growth, accounting for 34.5% in March 2019,

with contribution of 4.0 p.p., being a sector with the second highest contribution.

In line with the data by target

groups, growth was seen at the

groups: Capital goods by 20.2%

(contribution of 4.5 p.p.) and

Intermediary goods, except energy

dropping by 13.3% (contribution of

3.9 p.p.). On the other hand, drop of

1.2% was seen at Non-durable

consumer goods industry

(contribution of -0.4 p.p.), Durable

Consumer goods industry decreased

by 11.1% (contribution of -0.3% p.p.)


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4.0

1.41.0 0.8 0.6

2.3

1.00.5 0.7

0.3

0

1

2

3

4

5

1 2 3 4 5

Chart 1.3а: Branches with positive contribution to growth

(growth rates in %)

Contribution to monthly growth Contribution to cumulative growth

1 - Manufacture of machinery and equipment

2 - Manufacture of beverages

3 - Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products

4 - Manufacture of electrical equipment

5 - Repair and installation of machinery and equipment

Source: SSO.

-1.1-0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3

-0.7-1.1

1.9

-0.4-0.1

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

1 2 3 4 5

Chart 1.3b: Branches with negative contribution to growth

(growth rates in %)

Contribution to monthly growth Contribution to cumulative growth

1 - Manufacture of wearing apparel

2 - Manufacture of fabricated metal products

3 - Electricity supply, gas, steam and air conditioning

4 - Other manufacturing

5 - Manufacture of tobacco products

Source: SSO.

and Energy by 0.8% (contribution of -0.1. p.p.).

As per the cumulative data,

production in the first three

months in 2019, experienced 8.8%

growth, which was fully a result of

the increased production in

Manufacturing by 6.9%

(contribution of 5.3 p.p.), and to a

lesser extent a result of the growth

in Electricity, gas, steam and air-

conditioning supply sector by 15.9%

(contribution of 1.9 p.p.) and Mining

and quarrying by 4.1% (contribution

of 0.4 p.p.).

Data from the analysis by branches

shows that growth was registered

at 14 out of 27 branches, accounting

for 69.3% of total industrial

production structure. As regards

branches having significant share

in the structure, growth was

registered at Manufacture of

machinery and equipment of 23.8%

and contribution of 2.3 p.p., Electricity, energy, gas, steam and air conditioning supply

of 15.9% and contribution of 1.9 p.p., Manufacture of motor vehicles of 13.9% and

contribution of 1.4 p.p., as well as Food industry of 2.0% and contribution of 0.2 p.p..

With respect to target groups, in the period January - March 2019, growth was mainly a

result of increased production at all groups, as follows: Capital goods growing by 12.3%

(contribution of 2.7 p.p.), Intermediary goods, except energy surging by 9.0%

(contribution of 2.6 p.p.) Energy picking up by 16.2% (contribution of 2.3 p.p.), Non-

durable consumer goods industry increasing by 0.3% (contribution of 0.1 p.p.) and

Durable consumer goods industry by 2.0% (contribution of 0.1 p.p.).

Number of Employees in the IndustryNumber of Employees in the IndustryNumber of Employees in the IndustryNumber of Employees in the Industry

In March 2019, number of employees in the industry decreased by 0.8%. Drop was due to

the reduction in the number of employees in the following sectors: Manufacturing

industry by 0.9% and Electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply sector by 0.4%,

while Mining and quarrying sector surged by 0.4%.


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-8

-6

-4

-2

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2

4

6

8

10

12

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2018


2019

Chart 1.4: Employment and productivity in industry

(growth rates in %)

Employment Productivity

Source: SSO; calculatations by MF.Source: SSO; calculatations by MF.

Data on the number of employees

in industry by target groups in

March 2019, compared to the same

period last year, showed increase in

the number of employees at the

Capital goods by 9.3% and

Intermediary goods, except energy,

by 0.2%, while drop was seen at

Non-durable consumer goods

industry by 4.7%, Durable consumer

goods industry by 4.6% and Energy

by 0.8%.

On cumulative basis, in the period January - March 2019, number of employees

increased by 0.4% mainly as a result of the growth in the Manufacturing and Mining

and quarrying sector by 0.4% each, while number of employees in Electricity, gas, steam

and air-conditioning supply sector remained unchanged.

According to the data on target groups, in the first three months in 2019, increase was

registered at Capital goods – 13.6% and Intermediary goods, except energy - 0.9%, while

decline was observed at Non-durable consumer goods industry – 3.9%, Durable

consumer goods industry - 3.6% and Energy - 0.5%.

Business Tendencies in ManufacturingBusiness Tendencies in ManufacturingBusiness Tendencies in ManufacturingBusiness Tendencies in Manufacturing

Economic situation of business entities in March 2019 was more favourable compared

to February 2019, as well as in relation to the same month in 2018.

Average utilization of capacities of business entities in March accounted for 69.0%,

being an increase compared to the previous month, when it accounted for 68.8%. On

annual basis, utilization of the capacities was higher by 2.0 p.p..

Shortage of skilled labour with 25.6%, insufficient foreign demand with 16.1%,

insufficient domestic demand with 14.6%, uncertain economic environment with 10.7%,

financial problems with 7.8%, shortage of raw materials with 6.1% and competitive

import with 6.0% limited the most the production volume in March.

As regards the volume of production orders in March 2019, it was less favourable

compared to February 2019, it is expected for the production volume in the next three

months to be more favourable in relation to the previous month, while stocks of

finished products were decreased on monthly basis.

Number of Issued Building Permits and Expected Value of WorksNumber of Issued Building Permits and Expected Value of WorksNumber of Issued Building Permits and Expected Value of WorksNumber of Issued Building Permits and Expected Value of Works

In March 2019, 277 building permits were issued, increasing by 31.3% compared to March

2018. Compared to the previous month, number of issued building permits surged by


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0

1500

3000

4500

6000

7500

9000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

III

2018


2019

Chart 1.5: Building permits and value of works

(number in units; value in million denars)

Number of issued building permits (LHS)

Expected value of works (RHS)

Source: SSO.

Vardar

6.5%

East

14.4%

South - West

15.9%

South - East

6.1%

Pelagonija

6.5%

Polog

17.3%

North - East

15.9%

Skopje

17.3%

Chart 1.6: Structure of issued building permits by regions

Source: SSO.

81.0%. Expected value of works,

according to the issued building

permits in March 2019, increased by

83.2% on annual basis. Compared to

the previous month, value of works

experienced almost three-fold

increase.

Analyzed by types of constructions,

out of the total number of issued

building permits, 106 (or 38.3%)

were intended for buildings, 35 (or

12.6%) for civil engineering

structures and 136 (or 49.1%) for

reconstruction.

Analyzed by types of investors, out

of total 277 issued building permits,

individuals were investors in 125

facilities (or 45.1%), while business

entities were investors in 152

facilities (or 54.9%).

In March 2018, construction of 276

flats was envisaged, with total usable area of 28,520 m2. Number of envisaged flats for

construction experienced two-fold increase on monthly basis, decreasing by 19.3%

compared to March 2018.

InflatiInflatiInflatiInflationononon

Consumer prices in March 2019 increased by 1.4% compared to March 2018, following

the 1.1% increase in February 2019. Average inflation rate in the period January – March

2019 amounted to 1.2%.

Prices in the Food and non-alcoholic beverages category, having the highest share in

the CPI index, experienced 2.9% increase in March on annual basis. The highest annual

increase of prices in March 2019 was observed at the category Alcoholic beverages,

tobacco and narcotics by 8.6%, followed by the increase in prices at the following

categories: Health by 2.9%, Recreation and culture by 2.2%, Restaurants and hotels by

1.9% and Furnishings, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house by

1.2%.


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-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

III

2018


2019

Chart 1.8: Contributions to the annual inflation rate

(in p.p.)

Food and non-alcoholic beverages Transport

Alcoholic beverages, tobacco and narcotics Other

Total CPI

Source:SSO.

-24

-18

-12

-6

0

6

12

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

III

2018


2019

Chart 1.9: Changes in crude oil (Brent) price

(price in $/bbl; growth rate in %)

Monthly growth rate (RHS) Price (LHS)

Source: World Bank; calculations of MoF.

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

III

2018


2019

Chart 1.7: Inflation rate

(growth rates in %)

annual rate monthly rate

Source: SSO.

Annual drop of prices in March 2019

was recorded in the following

categories: Transport by 2.8%,

Clothing and footwear by 1.7%,

Communications by 1.3%, Education

by 0.5% and Housing, water,

electricity, gas and other fuels and

Miscellaneous goods and services

by 0.1% each.

Consumer prices in May 2019

increased by 0.4% compared to the

previous month. Thereby, monthly

increase of prices was recorded at

the following categories: Alcoholic

beverages, tobacco and narcotics by

3.6%, Food and non-alcoholic

beverages by 0.7%, Furnishings,

household equipment and routine

maintenance of the house by 0.5%

and Recreation and Culture by 0.4%.

Thereby, monthly decline of prices

was recorded in the following

categories: Clothing and footwear by 1.1%, Transport by 0.3% and Miscellaneous goods

and services by 0.2%. While prices in categories Housing. water, electricity, gas and

other fuels, Health, Communications, Education and Restaurants and hotels remained

unchanged.

Retail prices in March 2018 were higher by 0.4% compared to the same month last year,

while on monthly basis, they remained unchanged.

Stock Market PricesStock Market PricesStock Market PricesStock Market Prices

In March 2018, crude oil price (Brent)

on the global stock markets grew by

3.6% compared to February 2019,

reaching the price of US$ 66.4 per

barrel. Compared to the same month

in 2018, oil price is almost

unchanged.

As regards metal products, nickel, as

an important export product, was


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1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

15000

16000

III

2018


2019

Chart 1.10: Metal stock prices

(prices in $/mt)

Nickel price (LHS) Lead price (RHS) Zink price (LHS)

Source: World Bank.

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

2100

Export Import

Chart 2.1: Foreign trade

(in million EUR)

I-III 2018 I-III 2019 I-III 2018 I-III 2019

Source: SSO.

traded at an average price of US$

13,026 for a metric ton ($/mt) in

March 2019, being a price increase

by 2.7% on monthly basis. Compared

to March 2018, nickel price was

lower by 2.7%. In addition to nickel,

price increase in March 2019 was

also recorded at the other base

metals, except for the lead, the price

of which decreased by 0.8%. Hence,

price of zinc grew by 5.3%, price of

copper increased by 2.2%, price of tin was higher by 0.6% and price of aluminum

decreased experienced 0.4% growth. Price of iron ore in March declined by 2.0% on

monthly basis.

As regards precious metals, prices of silver and gold declined by 3.3% and 1.5%

respectively in March 2019, compared to the previous month, while price of platinum

surged by 3.0%.

In March 2019, price of wheat on global stock markets declined by 6.0%, while price of

maize decreased by 1.9% on monthly basis.

2. 2. 2. 2. FOREIGN TRADEFOREIGN TRADEFOREIGN TRADEFOREIGN TRADE

Total foreign trade in the first

three months in 2019 amounted to

EUR 3,517.6 million, increasing by

13.7% compared to the same period

last year.

In the period January-March 2019,

share of trade with the EU (ЕU 28),

as the largest trading partner,

decreased by 1.5 p.p. compared to

the same period last year,

accounting for 71.1%.

ExportExportExportExport

In the period January - March 2019, value of exported goods amounted to EUR 1,529.2

million, surging by 16.8% (EUR 219.7 million) compared to the same period in 2018, while

physical output of export grew by 21.8%.


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Iron and steel

9.5%

Clothing

7.6%

Chemical materials

and products21.6%

Beverages and

tobacco

2.1%

Oil and oil products

1.2%Metal ore and metal

scrap

3.8%

Other

54.1%

Chart 2.2: Structure of exports according to SITC

Source: SSO.

Period: I-III 2019

5.9

46.3

1.5

17.5 15.912.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

Food

an

d be

vera

ges

Indu

stri

al s

upp

lies

Fuel

an

d lu

bric

ants

-

ener

gy

Inve

stm

ents

exc

ept

tran

spor

t eq

uip

men

t

Tra

nsp

ort

equ

ipm

ent

Con

sum

ptio

n g

oods

Chart 2.3: Structure of exports by economic purpose

(share in %)

Food and beverages Industrial supplies

Fuel and lubricants - energy Investments except transport equipment

Transport equipment Consumption goods

Source: SSO and MoF calculations

Period: I-III 2019

8.3

53.2

10.413.2

5.89.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Food and

beverages

Industrial supplies Fuel and lubricants

- energy

Investments except

transport

equipment

Transport

equipment

Consumption goods

Chart 2.4: Structure of imports by economic purpose

(share in %)

Food and beverages Industrial supplies

Fuel and lubricants - energy Investments except transport equipment

Transport equipment Consumption goods

Source: SSO and MoF calculations.

Period: I-III 2019

Value of exported goods amounted

to EUR 584.0 million in March 2019,

surging by 37.0% (EUR 157.8 million)

compared to the same month of the

previous year, while physical output

of export increased by 35.8%.

Analyzed on monthly basis, in

March 2019, export grew by 10.2%

(EUR 54.2 million), compared to the

previous month and, should export

be seasonally adjusted, it registered

monthly growth of 2.7%.

Main groups of products (according

to SITC) being most exported in the

period January - March 2019 were

the following: chemical materials

and products, iron and steel,

clothing, metal ore and metal scrap,

beverages and tobacco and oil and

oil products. These six groups of

products comprised 45.9% of the

total export of the country.

Analyzed according to economic groups of countries, in the period January - March

2019, compared to the same period in 2018, export grew at the following groups: EU 28,

EFTA, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Counties, Western Balkan Countries,

North American Free Trade Agreement, Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation and

Commonwealth of Independent States. Export to EU 28 grew by 15.4% annually, while

export to Western Balkan countries increased by 14.9%, whereby export of goods to EU

28 and the Western Balkan

countries accounted for 84.0% and

9.8% respectively in the total export

from the Republic of North

Macedonia.

ImportImportImportImport

In the period January - March 2019,

value of imported goods amounted

to EUR 1,988.4 million, surging by

11.5% (EUR 204.8 million) compared

to the same period in 2018, while


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-300

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

III

2018


2019

Chart 2.5: Foreign trade

(in million EUR)

Export Import Balance Total

Source: SSO.

physical output of import grew by 22.9%.

In March 2019, import value amounted to EUR 738.9 million, surging by 14.6% (EUR 94.1

million) compared to the same month in 2018, while imported quantities of goods grew

by 17.4%.

Analyzed on monthly basis, in March 2019, import grew by 8.8% (EUR 59.5 million)

compared to the previous month, and, should import be seasonally adjusted, it

registered monthly drop of 2.3%.

Table 2.1. Review of export and import of selected groups of products

I - III - 2018 I - III - 2019 Balance % rate I - III - 2018 I - III - 2019 Balance % rate

000 Т 4,5 10,0 5,4 120,7 .000 Т 6,7 8,6 1,9 28,6

EUR mil. 279,0 330,7 51,7 18,5 EUR mil. 49,7 54,3 4,6 9,2

$ mil. 343,0 375,5 32,5 9,5 $ mil. 61,2 61,6 0,4 0,7

*)Previous data *)Previous data


000 Т 178,5 202,9 24,4 13,7 .000 Т 241,1 245,6 4,6 1,9

EUR mil. 106,4 145,5 39,1 36,8 EUR mil. 128,5 125,0 -3,5 -2,7

$ mil. 131,1 165,0 34,0 25,9 $ mil. 158,3 141,7 -16,5 -10,4



000 Т 14,8 19,7 4,9 33,3 .000 Т 14,7 15,2 0,5 3,7

EUR mil. 190,8 241,4 50,6 26,5 EUR mil. 165,7 178,0 12,3 7,4

$ mil. 234,9 273,9 39,0 16,6 $ mil. 203,9 202,1 -1,8 -0,9


Export of electrical machines and spare parts*) Import of electrical machines and spare parts*)

Export of chemical products*) Import of chemical products*)

Export of iron and steel*) Import of iron and steel*)

Trade BalanceTrade BalanceTrade BalanceTrade Balance

In the period January - March 2019,

trade deficit decreased by 3.1%, i.e.

by EUR 14.9 million, compared to

the same period last year.

In March 2019, trade deficit

decreased by 29.1% or EUR 63.7

million compared to March 2018.

If we analyze the balance of export

and import of goods by economic

purpose, deficit decrease is a result

of the narrowing of the negative

balance in the trade of investment goods without transport equipment and food and

beverages, as well as widening of the positive balance in the trade of transport

equipment and consumer goods. On the other hand, widening of the negative balance in

the trade of industrial supplies and fuels and lubricants, contributed to the deficit

increase.


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0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000

Non-tax revenues

Social contributions

Custom duties

Excises

VAT

Profit tax

Personal income tax

Chart 3.1: Revenues by category

(in million denars)

March 2018 March 2019

Source: MoF.

In the period January - March 2019, 87.5% of the trade deficit of the country was realized

in the trade with Great Britain, Greece and China, followed by: Serbia, South Africa,

Turkey, Italy, Ukraine, Poland, etc. Surplus was realized in the trade with Germany,

Kosovo, Belgium, Spain and Hungary.

Currency StructureCurrency StructureCurrency StructureCurrency Structure

Observed by currency structure, 85.6% of the trade in the period January - March 2019

was realized in euros and, compared to the same period in 2018, it decreased by 2.5 p.p..

On export and import side, euro accounted for 92.9% and 80.0%, respectively, whereby

share of the euro in export was lower by 1.3 p.p., while share of the euro in import

decreased by 3.7 p.p. compared to the period January - March 2018.

import

currency .000 Timport in

currency

average Denar

exch. Rate in

relation to

currencies

import in Denarstructure in

%.000 T

import in

currency

average

Denar exch.

Rate in

relation to

currencies

import in Denar structure in %

EUR 1.041,2 1.492.817.716 61,5580 91.894.872.948 83,7 1.060,5 1.591.287.000 61,5252 97.904.250.903 80,0 98.469.284 6,6

USD 262,5 336.337.652 50,0967 16.849.406.450 15,3 543,2 429.102.118 54,1702 23.244.547.554 19,0 92.764.466 27,6

GBP 1,6 7.374.412 69,6764 513.822.447 0,5 1,1 5.498.481 70,4783 387.523.560 0,3 -1.875.931 -25,4

EUR+USD+

GBP1.305,3 109.258.101.845 99,0 1.604,8 121.536.322.017 99,3

tot. import 1.309,2 109.801.321.764 100,0 1.609,1 122.337.628.744 100,0 11,4

Source: SSO and NBRNM

Table 2.2 Foreign trade of the Republic of North Macedonia (by currency); calculations: MoF

I - III - 2018 I - III - 2019

absolute

change in

currency value

relative

change in

currency

value (in %)

3. 3. 3. 3. FISCAL SECTORFISCAL SECTORFISCAL SECTORFISCAL SECTOR

Budget Revenues According to the Economic ClassificationBudget Revenues According to the Economic ClassificationBudget Revenues According to the Economic ClassificationBudget Revenues According to the Economic Classification

In the period January–March 2019,

total budget revenues reached an

amount of Denar 46,076 million, i.e.

6.6% of GDP, showing higher

performance by 6.2% in relation to

the same period in 2018.

Tax revenues in this period were

collected in the amount of Denar

26,272 million, being higher by 2.9%

in relation to the same period last

year.

Revenues on the basis of value added tax were collected in the amount of Denar 12,123

million, increasing by 5.2% in relation to last year, whereby share of VAT in total tax

revenues was dominant, accounting for 46.1%. Thereby, VAT collection amounted to

Denar 17,996 million on gross basis, out of which Denar 5,872 million was refunded to

taxpayers (gross collection was higher by 4.7%, while VAT refund was higher by 3.9%


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compared to the same period in 2018). As for VAT structure, collection of VAT when

importing accounted for the most, increasing by 3.6%, while VAT revenues collected on

the basis of sales in the country picked up by 7.4%.

Revenues on the basis of excises were collected in the amount of Denar 5,129 million

(participating with 19.5% in the tax revenues), declining by 9.5% compared to the same

period in 2018. Hence, revenues collected on the basis of these two indirect taxes

amounted to Denar 17,252 million, i.e. 65.7% of the total tax revenues in this period.

PIT revenues were collected in the amount of Denar 4,053 million, increasing by 12.1%

on annual basis, whereby revenues on the basis of tax on salaries and other personal

earnings accounted for 64.1% of the personal income tax, revenues on the basis of

games of chance and award games accounted for 9.2%, revenues on the basis of

contractual agreement accounted for 6.3%, revenues on the basis of property and

property rights accounted for 5.5% and capital revenues accounted for 4.9%. Profit tax

revenues in the first three months amounted to Denar 3,431 million, increasing by 7.9%

compared to the same period in the previous year, being mainly a result of tax collected

on the basis of monthly advance payments (13.2% increase), withholding tax for foreign

legal entities (6.2% increase), while additional payments on the basis of tax balances

decreased by 5.5%.

Customs revenues were collected in the amount of Denar 1,408, being unchanged

compared to the same period last year. Collection of revenues on the basis of other

taxes, amounting to Denar 128 million, declined by 3.0%.

Social contributions were collected in the amount of Denar 14,061 million, being higher

by 7.7% compared to the same period in 2018, whereby collection of pension and

disability insurance contributions grew by 7.7%, collection of employment contributions

increased by 6.3% and health insurance contributions experienced 7.8% growth.

Non-tax revenues were collected in the amount of Denar 4,324 million and, in relation

to the first three months in 2018, they were higher by 35.3% (these revenues include

revenues on the basis of profit realized by the public institutions, revenues collected on

the basis of administrative fees and fines, concessions, etc.).

Capital revenues realized on the basis of sale of construction land, flats and dividends

reached Denar 218 million, decreasing by 52.2% compared to last year.

Revenues collected on the basis of foreign donations from international and bilateral

cooperation amounted to Denar 888 million, increasing by 12.7% compared to the same

period last year.


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Tax revenues80.6

Non-tax revenues4.2

Capital revenues0.7

Transfers and donations

1.4

Domestic borrowing13.1 Foreign borrowing

0.0Revenues from

repayment of loans

0.1

Chart 3.2: Structure of revenues of Ministry of finance - state

functions (in %)

Source: MoF.

Period: I-III 2019

Revenues by Budget UsersRevenues by Budget UsersRevenues by Budget UsersRevenues by Budget Users

Budget revenues, i.e. inflows to the Central Budget, are generated mainly through the

Ministry of Finance - Functions of

the State1, which amounted to

Denar 32,261 million in the period

January - March 2019, i.e. 92.9% of

the revenues of all budget users,

accounting for 20.2% of the annual

projections of this budget user.

Within the Ministry of Finance -

Functions of the State, tax revenues

accounted for the most – 80.6% of

total revenues and inflows to this

budget user, whereby their

collection reached 21.9% of the annual projections in the period January - March 2019.

Inflows on the basis of domestic borrowing in this period amounted to Denar 4,217

billion, accounting for 13.1% of the total amount of this budget user.

Ministry of Education and Science collected revenues in the amount of Denar 898

million, i.e. 2.6% of the revenues and inflows of all budget users, most of which (87.0%)

were non-tax revenues, collected mainly on the basis of fees and charges.

Ministry of Finance, as budget user, collected revenues in the amount of Denar 310

million, or 0.9% of the revenues and inflows of all budget users. Inflows on the basis of

foreign borrowing amounted to Denar 164 million, accounting for 52.8% of the total

revenues of this budget user.

The remaining budget users collectively generated revenues, accounting for 3.7% of

total revenues and inflows. Detailed data on each budget user are presented in the

statistical annex attached at the following link (http://finance.gov.mk/mk/node/693).

As regards budget funds, in the period January - March 2019, Pension and Disability

Insurance Fund of North Macedonia, collected revenues in the amount of Denar 18,392

million, accounting for 25.4% of the Fund’s annual projections.

1 As regards the Organizational Code "Functions of the State”, the following activities are included: timely servicing of

liabilities (interest and principal repayment) of the state on the basis of domestic and foreign borrowing; regular

payment of operating costs of the state upon prior submitted payment documentation; share in the capital of

international financial institutions; payment of VAT on the basis of capital investments funded by donations, financing

projects by individual IPA components (national co-financing and IPA funds from the EU). In addition, this

organizational code, pursuant to the Law on Budgets of the Republic of North Macedonia and the Law on Budget

Execution, envisages funds allocated for covering the damages caused by natural disasters and funds for financing

unforeseen costs in the course of the fiscal year.


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0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000

Capital

expenditures

Interest

Other

transfers

Social

transfers

Goods and

services

Wages and

allowances

Chart 3.3: Expenditures by category

(in million denars)

March 2018 March 2019

Source: MoF.

Budget Expenditures According tBudget Expenditures According tBudget Expenditures According tBudget Expenditures According to the Economic Classificationo the Economic Classificationo the Economic Classificationo the Economic Classification

Total budget expenditures amounted to Denar 49,270 million in the period January -

March 2019, i.e. they accounted for 7.1% of GDP, being higher by 6.0% compared to the

same period in 2018.

With respect to the structure of

total executed expenditures,

current expenditures, amounting to

Denar 47,656 million, accounted for

96.7% and they increased by 6.6% on

annual basis.

Expenditures related to wages and

allowances were executed in the

amount of Denar 6,751 million,

increasing by 3.2% in relation to the

previous year, accounting for 13.7% of the total budget expenditures.

Expenditures related to goods and services amounted to Denar 3,467 million, increasing

by 6.9% compared to the same period in 2018.

Funds allocated for transfers amounting to Denar 35,500 million accounted for the

most in the current expenditure items. Such expenditures grew by 6.0% compared to

January- march 2018, participating with 72.1% in the total expenditures.

Funds allocated for social transfers amounted to Denar 25,983 million, increasing by

8.9% and accounting for 52.7% of the total expenditures. Transfers towards the Pension

and Disability Insurance Fund, accounting for the most of the social transfers,

amounted to Denar 16,076 million, increasing by 8.9% compared to 2018 and accounting

for 32.6% of the total expenditures. Category “other transfers”, which includes transfers

to local government units, accounted for 18.6% of the total expenditures, i.e. they

decreased by 1.2%, amounting to Denar 9,144 million. Block grants to local government

units, amounting to Denar 4,138 million, grew by 5.0% compared to the previous year.

Expenditures related to subsidies and transfers amounted to Denar 4,433 million, being

lower by 6.8% compared to last year.

Interest-related expenditures were executed in the amount of Denar 1,938 million,

being by 36.7% more compared to the same period in 2018. Costs related to interest on

the basis of domestic borrowing decreased by 18.3%, while the ones on the basis of

foreign borrowing grew by 135.5%. During the analyzed period, funds for capital

expenditures were executed in the amount of Denar 1,614 million, participating with

3.3% in the total expenditures. i.e. decreasing by 10.0% compared to the same period in

2018.


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Ministry of labour and social policy

28.4

Ministry of finance -state functions

20.7

Ministry of education and science

13.5

Ministry of interior7.6

AFSARD7.2

Ministry of health 3.3

Ministry of defence 4.2

Ministry of transport and communications

1.1

Other14.1

Chart 3.4: Structure of expenditures by budget users

(in %)

Source: MoF.

Period: I-III 2019

ExpenditurExpenditurExpenditurExpenditures by Budget Userses by Budget Userses by Budget Userses by Budget Users

Review of budget expenditures for the largest budget users is shown below, the total

annual budget of which accounts for 81.0% of the total budget of all budget users.

In the period January - March 2019, Ministry of Labour and Social Policy executed funds

in the amount of Denar 10,837 million or 24.3% of its total budget for the current year.

Thereby, most of the expenditures (73.5%) in this period were allocated for current

transfers to extra-budgetary funds, for which Denar 7,963 million was spent or 26.3% of

the funds allocated for 2019. The second highest expenditure category was social

benefits, participating with 18.1% in the total expenditures. As for this purpose, 19.1%

(Denar 1,958 million) of the expenditures projected for 2019 were executed.

In the first three months of 2019,

Denar 7,901 million was spent

through the organizational code

Ministry of Finance – Functions of

the State2, accounting for 23.6% of

its annual budget. Repayment of

principal accounted for most of the

expenditures or 56.9%, Denar 4.497

million being spent therefore, i.e.

27.5% of the funds projected for this

purpose in 2019. As regards

expenditures related to interest

payments, they accounted for 24.5% of the total expenditures, Denar 1,938 million being

spent therefore or accounting for 21.1% of the projected interest payments.

In the period January - March 2019, Ministry of Education and Science executed budget

funds in the amount of Denar 5,164 million, i.e. 19.8% of its total 2019 budget. Current

transfers to LGUs accounted for the most of the expenditures (69.1%), Denar 3,569

million being spent therefore or 24.8% of total projected funds. Wages and allowances

were the second highest expenditure category, participating with 16.5%, Denar 853

million being spent therefore, i.e. 23.2% of the total funds projected for the current year.

In the period January - March 2019, Ministry of Internal Affairs executed expenditures

in the total amount of Denar 2,903 million, accounting for 26.5% of its 2019 budget.

2 As regards the Organizational Code "Functions of the State”, the following activities are included: timely servicing of

liabilities (interest and principal repayment) of the state on the basis of domestic and foreign borrowing; regular

payment of operating costs of the state upon prior submitted payment documentation; share in the capital of

international financial institutions; payment of VAT on the basis of capital investments funded by donations, financing

projects by individual IPA components (national co-financing and IPA funds from the EU). In addition, this

organizational code, pursuant to the Law on Budgets of the Republic of North Macedonia and the Law on Budget

Execution, envisages funds allocated for covering the damages caused by natural disasters and funds for financing

unforeseen costs in the course of the fiscal year.


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Wages and allowances were the highest expenditure item, participating with 66.8%,

Denar 1,939 million being spent therefore, or accounting for 25.2% of the projected ones.

The second highest expenditure item was goods and services, participating with 22.9%,

funds in the amount of Denar 666 million being spent therefore, or accounting for 33.7%

of the annual projections.

Agency for Financial Support in Agriculture and Rural Development spent funds in the

amount of Denar 2,743 million, accounting for 31.6% of the funds projected for the

current year. As for subsides and transfers, accounting for 97.8% of the total

expenditures, 40.6% of the projected funds were spent therefore.

In the first three months in 2019, Ministry of Defense executed budget funds in the

amount of Denar 1,588 million, i.e. 19.1% of its total 2019 budget. Wages and allowances

accounted for the most with 60.5%, for which Denar 960 million was realized,

accounting for 24.2% of the total funds projected for the current year. Expenditures

related to goods and services accounted for 25.2% of total expenditures, Denar 400

million being spent therefore during the analyzed period, i.e. 20.2% execution of the

total projected funds.

In the period January - March 2019, Ministry of Health executed budget funds in the

amount of Denar 1,276 million, accounting for 19.7% of its total 2019 budget. Current

transfers to extra-budgetary funds accounted for the most of the expenditures with

51.5%, for which Denar 657 million was spent or 22.9% of the funds projected for the

current year. Expenditures related to goods and services were the second highest

expenditure category, accounting for 38.4% of the total expenditures, funds in the

amount of Denar 490 million being executed therefore in the analyzed period, i.e. 21.4%

of total projected ones.

During the analyzed period, Ministry of Transport and Communications executed funds

in the amount of Denar 409 million, i.e. 5.6% of its total budget for the current year.

Expenditures related to subsidies and transfers accounted for 49.3% in the total budget

of this user, for which purpose Denar 202 million was spent, i.e. 28.2% of the projected

ones.

Detailed data on each budget user are presented in the statistical annex attached at the

following link (http://finance.gov.mk/mk/node/693).

Budget BalanceBudget BalanceBudget BalanceBudget Balance

In the first three months of 2019, Budget of the Republic of North Macedonia realized

deficit in the amount of Denar 3,194 million, accounting for 0.46% of GDP, while central

budget deficit amounted to Denar 3,402 million, accounting for 0.49% of GDP.


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0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

175000

180000

185000

190000

195000

200000

III

2018


2019

Chart 4.1: Summary of unemployed from ESAM

(amounts in units)

Active

(right scale)

Other

(right scale)

Total unemployed

(left scale)Source: ESARNM

0

4000

8000

12000

16000

20000

24000

III

2018


2019

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Chart 4.2: Summary of new employments

(amounts in units)

Newly employed of the registry … Total newly employed of the registry ( right scale)

Source:ESARNM .

4. 4. 4. 4. SOCIAL SECTORSOCIAL SECTORSOCIAL SECTORSOCIAL SECTOR

Number of Newly Employed and Registered Unemployed Persons in Number of Newly Employed and Registered Unemployed Persons in Number of Newly Employed and Registered Unemployed Persons in Number of Newly Employed and Registered Unemployed Persons in

EARNMEARNMEARNMEARNM

In the period January – March 2019,

Employment Agency of the


registered total of 49,068 new

employments. Total number of

newly employed persons in this

period was higher by 6.0% compared

to the same period in 2018.

As regards the total number of

newly employed, 40.9% was engaged

on permanent basis, while the rest

of the employed were engaged on temporary basis and as seasonal workers. In March

2019, 19.8% out of the total number of newly employed persons was from the

unemployed records.

Total number of unemployed persons in March 2019 was 194,560, out of which 106,242

persons were active job seekers, while 88,318 persons were from the category “other

unemployed”. Compared to the same month last year, total number of unemployed

persons was higher by 1.5%.

Major percentage of the

unemployed (64.2%) came from

urban areas (cities), whereby 53.4%

were men. Analyzed by the level of

education, major part, i.e. 61.8% of

the unemployed persons, were with

incomplete secondary education or

less, 26.2% were with completed

secondary education, while 12.0% of

the unemployed persons were with

completed community college or

higher education level.

Observed by age, majority of the unemployed persons or 47.5% fall in the category of 25-

49 years of age. According to the time they waited for a job, 47.1% of the unemployed

persons wait for employment from 1 to 7 years, while 6.8% wait for employment for 8

years and more.


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0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

II 2018 III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII I II 2019

Chart 4.3: Average net-wage

(growth rates in %)

Nominal change Real change

Source: SSO

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

II 2018 III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII I II 2019

Chart 4.4: Average net-wages by sectors of activities

(growth rates in %)

Agriculture Industry Services

Source: SSO.

13900

14000

14100

14200

14300

14400

14500

14600

306000

308000

310000

312000

314000

316000

318000

III 2018 IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII I II III 2019

Chart 4.5: Pension beneficaries and average pension

(beneficaries in units; average pension in denars)

Average pension … Pension beneficaries …

Source:PDIFNM

WagesWagesWagesWages

In February 2019, average net wage

increased by 4.5% in nominal terms

on annual basis, and it was lower by

1.3% in relation to the previous

month. The highest increase of

average net wage was observed at

the following sectors: Health and

social protection (11.6%), Transport

and storage (10.0%) and Agriculture,

forestry and fishing (8.5%). In

February, wages grew by 3.4% in

real terms on annual basis.

In February 2019, average gross

wage increased by 5.6% in nominal

terms on annual basis, and it was

lower by 1.3% in relation to the

previous month. The highest

increase of average gross wage was

observed at the following sectors:

Health and social protection (13.4%),

Transport and storage (11.3%) and

Contruction (9.8%). Real gross wage

surged by 4.5% annually.

PensionsPensionsPensionsPensions

In March 2019, Pension and

Disability Insurance Fund

registered 317,264 pensioners,

increasing by 1.9% compared to the

same period last year. Number of

pension beneficiaries increased by

1,672 persons on monthly basis. As

regards the total number of

pensioners, 65.0% were beneficiaries

of old-age pension, 23.9% of survival

pension and 11.1% of disability

pension.


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59,3% 59,4%

40,7% 40,6%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Deposits Credits

Chart 5.1. : Currency structure of deposits and credits

(March 2019)

Denar Foreign currency

Source: NBRNM.

Average pension in March 2019 amounted to Denar 14.55, being higher by 2.8%

compared to the same month last year. Ratio between the average pension and the

average paid wage in February 2019 (the most recent available data) was 59.4%.

In March, average old-age pension amounted to Denar 15,866, average disability

pension amounted to Denar 13,171, while average survival pension amounted to Denar

11,638. In March 2019, Denar 4,474.45 million was spent for payment of pensions,

accounting for 49.7% of the total social transfers.

5. 5. 5. 5. MONETARY AND MONETARY AND MONETARY AND MONETARY AND FINANCIAL SECTORFINANCIAL SECTORFINANCIAL SECTORFINANCIAL SECTOR

In March 2019, National Bank of the


reduced the reference interest rate

by 0.25 p.p., i.e. from 2.50% to 2.25%,

as a result of the retained

continuity of favourable trends on

the forex market, indicating

absence of pressures in the external

sector and stable perceptions of

domestic entities, as well as

absence of price pressures.

Additional room for monetary loosening is also caused by the latest announcement of

ECB to retain the interest rates at the current level for a longer period than the

previously envisaged, as well as for additional loosening through other monetary

instruments. Interest rate on available 7-day deposits remained unchanged compared

to previous month, accounting for 0.3%.

Primary MoneyPrimary MoneyPrimary MoneyPrimary Money

In March 2019, primary money3 grew by 6.8% on annual basis, in conditions of increase

of ready money in circulation by 12.0% and increase of total liquid assets of banks by

0.5%.

On monthly basis, primary money dropped by 21.5%, as a result of decrease of total

liquid assets of banks by 39.7% , while currency in circulation increased by 0.7%.

3 Primary money is calculated as a sum of currency in circulation (including cash in hand), denar and foreign currency

reserve requirement and the surplus of liquid assets over the reserve requirement (in denars).


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0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

III

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2019

Chart 5.2: Deposits and credits

(growth rates in %)

Deposits Credits

Source: NBRNM.

Deposit PotentialDeposit PotentialDeposit PotentialDeposit Potential4

In March 2019, total deposits of

banks increased by 0.4% on monthly

basis. Sector analysis showed that,

compared to the previous month,

deposits of private enterprises

declined by 0.8%, while deposits of

households grew by 0.2%.

Analyzed by currency, in March

2019, compared to the previous

month, Denar deposits increased by

0.4%, while foreign currency

deposits picked up 0.5%.

Total deposit potential in March 2019 surged by 11.1% on annual basis. Analyzed by

currency, domestic currency deposits and foreign currency deposits surged by 12.3% and

9.3% respectively.

From sector point of view, this month, deposits of enterprises and deposits of

households increased by 8.7% each on annual basis.

According to maturity, short-term deposits surged by 7.5%, while long-term deposits

grew by 11.3%, on annual basis.

Currency structure of deposits remained stable, whereby share of domestic currency

deposits in the deposit base was higher, accounting for 59.3%.

Table 5.1. Deposit potential and credits to private sector;

4

NBRNM published the data from the monetary statistics, statistics of other financial corporations and the statistics of

interest rates according to the new methodology. Methodologic changes were made for the purpose of harmonization

with the recommendations under the newly published IMF Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual and Compilation

Guide as of 2016 (MFSMCG – IMF, 2016) and the IMF Technical Mission in the field of monetary and financial statistics in

NBRM as of 2015.

Deposit potential and credits to private

sector (March 2019) Denar million

Monthly

change Annual change

Deposit Potential 377,800

0.4% 11.1%

% By currency:

Denar 224,170

0.4% 12.3%

Foreign currency 153,630

0.5% 9.3%

By maturity: Short-term 166,309

0.2% 9.9.%

7.5%


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0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

III

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2019

Chart 5.3: Interest rates on deposits and credits

(in %)

Denar credits Denar deposits

Foreign currency credits Foreign currency deposits

Source: NBRNM.

Source: NBRNM

Bank CreditsBank CreditsBank CreditsBank Credits

In March 2019, total credits of banks to the private sector surged by 1.0% compared to

the previous month. Sector analysis shows that credits to enterprises and credit to

households grew by 1.1% and 1.0%, respectively. Analyzed by currency, in March 2019,

both Denar credits and foreign currency credits surged by 1.0% and 1.1% respectively on

monthly basis.

On annual basis, total credits grew by 9.0% in March 2019, in conditions of growth of

both credits to households of 9.7% and credits to enterprises of 8.4%. Denar credits

surged by 11.5%, while foreign currency credits increased by 5.4%.

As regards maturity, long-term credits experienced annual growth of 8.5% and short-

term credits picked up by 11.2%.

Interest Rates of Deposit BanksInterest Rates of Deposit BanksInterest Rates of Deposit BanksInterest Rates of Deposit Banks

In March 2019, total interest rate on

credits dropped by 0.02 p.p.

compared to the previous month,

accounting for 5.26%. Interest rate

on Denar credits dropped by 0.01

p.p., accounting for 5.74%, while

interest rate on foreign currency

credits decreased by 0.02 p.p. on

monthly basis, accounting for 4.69%.

Total interest rate on deposits in

March 2019 was 1.42%, remaining

unchanged compared to last month. Interest rate on Denar deposits remained

unchanged on monthly basis, accounting for 1.95% p.p., while interest rate on foreign

currency deposits decreased by 0.1 p.p., accounting for 0.79%.

Long-term 106,021

0.7% %

11.3%

Credits to private sector 324,798

1.0% 9.0%

By currency:

Denar 192,899

1.0% 11.5%

Foreign currency 131,899

1.1% 5.4%

By maturity:

Short-term 61,647

1.0% 11.2%

Long-term 243,452

1.1% 8.5% %

Doubtful and contested claims 16,587

-0.4% 10.4%


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2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

3400

3600

3800

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

III

2018


2019

Chart 5.4: Total turnover at Macedonian Stock Exchange and MBI 10

(turnover in millions of denars; MBI 10 in index points)

Total turnover MBI 10

Source: MSE.

Capital MarketCapital MarketCapital MarketCapital Market

As for the capital market, in March 2019, total turnover on the stock exchange surged

by 232.3% on monthly basis, in conditions of increase of turnover on the basis of block

transactions and trading in best by 14.8% and 9.8%, respectively. Higher increase of total

turnover on the stock exchange was a result of the realized turnover on the basis of

public offer of securities amounting to Denar 307.5 million in March 2019.

Total turnover on the stock

exchange amounted to Denar 995.5

million in March 2019, being a

decline of 71.4% on annual basis.

Macedonian Stock Exchange Index

MSEI - 10 amounted to 3,664.66

index points at the end of March

2019, whereby the index grew by

0.3% on monthly basis, while,

compared to the same month last

year, the index was higher by 32.5%.

Reserve AssetsReserve AssetsReserve AssetsReserve Assets

Gross reserve assets at end-March 2019 amounted to EUR 2,866.4 million and,

compared to the previous month, they were higher by 0.1%, while compared to March

2018, they surged by 11.2%.

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