Short to Medium term outlook on NIFTY & Infrastructure ...€¦ · Short to Medium term outlook on...

Short to Medium term outlook on NIFTY & Infrastructure, Cement Sectors/ Stocks

30th August, 2018

Nifty Infrastructure

• NIFTY Infrastructure Index includes companies belonging to Telecom, Power, Port, Air, Roads,

Railways, shipping and other Utility Services providers. The Index comprises of maximum 25

companies listed on National Stock Exchange of India (NSE). NIFTY Infrastructure Index is

computed using free float market capitalization method, wherein the level of the index reflects

the total free float market value of all the stocks in the index relative to particular base market

capitalization value. NIFTY Infrastructure Index can be used for a variety of purposes such as

benchmarking fund portfolios, launching of index funds, ETFs and structured products. Index

Variant: NIFTY Infrastructure Total Returns Index.

Source – NSEINDIA.COM

Nifty Infrastructure

• Top constituents by weightage (%)

• Larsen & Toubro Ltd. 33.67, Bharti Airtel Ltd. 10.80, NTPC Ltd. 10.17

• Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd. 8.60, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd. 5.90

• Bharti Infratel Ltd. 5.11, Container Corporation of India Ltd. 3.08, Tata Power Co. Ltd. 2.83

• Voltas Ltd. 2.76, Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. 2.11

Source – NSEINDIA.COM

Chart of Nifty Infra Index from 2010

10:J S O N D 11:J M A M J J A S O N D 12:J M A M J J A S O N D 13:J M A M J J A S O N D 14:J M A M J J A S O N D 15:J M A M J J A S O N D 16:J M A M J J A S O N D 17:J M A M J J A S O N D 18:J M A M J J A

Lnr IRIS

Source : www.SpiderSoftwareIndia.Com1900

2000

2100

2200

2300

2400

2500

2600

2700

2800

2900

3000

3100

3200

3300

3400

3500

3600

3700

3800

Cr

2000

4000

3251.75

2776.86

Price

Vol

NIFTYINFRA [N59912] 3251.75, 2.97%

Mon

0

3777.90

2

6

7

3524.05

8

3456.75

HIGHER BOTTOM16

Rounding Bottom

Cup with Handle

19

38.20

2994.00

50.00

2994.00

61.80

2994.00

19.00

2994.00

81.00

2994.00

77.40

2994.00

23.60

2994.00

100.00

2994.00

113.00

2994.00

200.00

2994.00

50% Correction

21

Source - Spider Software Pvt LTD Kotak Securities - Private Client Group - Path: Login to www.kotaksecurities.com > Research > Equity Reports > Stock Recommendation Snapshot

Kotak Securities - Institutional Equities - Path: Login to www.kotaksecurities.com > Research > Equity Reports > India Daily Institutional Equities Research Report

http://www.kotaksecurities.com/


Basis behind turning bullish on the sector• Technical Analysis - Rounding Bottom/Cup with Handle – Bullish Consolidation.

• Technical Analysis - Stock Specific bullish reversal on Long Term Charts-Monthly.

• Theory of Reforms and Post Reforms

During process of reforms /announcements sector remains bullish or sideways.

In the later part, after 5 years, which is post reform industry moves to exuberant phase.

• Fundamentals – first time both Cement and Infra companies have surpassed street expectations

on Quarterly numbers.

• Fundamentals – Order book is getting better and spreading across segments.

• Fundamentals – Financial disclosure never becomes major problem for large companies.

Past Case Study – Biggest Reform Period - 1998-2008Theme Period Instruments High-1 High-2 % Gains

REFORMS 1998-2004 NIFTY 963 1485 54%

POST REFORMS 2004-2008 NIFTY 1485 6350 328%

REFORMS 1998-2004 LT 25 80 220%

POST REFORMS 2004-2008 LT 80 1040 1200%

REFORMS 1998-2004 NCC 1 10 900%

POST REFORMS 2004-2008 NCC 10 230 2200%

REFORMS 1998-2004 BHEL 23 45 96%

POST REFORMS 2004-2008 BHEL 45 385 756%

REFORMS 1998-2004 ABB 85 170 100%

POST REFORMS 2004-2008 ABB 170 1750 929%

REFORMS 1998-2004 SIEMENS 15 113 653%

POST REFORMS 2004-2008 SIEMENS 115 1140 891%

Source - Spider Software Pvt LTD

Past Case Study – Biggest Reform Period - 1998-2008Theme Period Instruments High-1 High-2 % Gains

REFORMS 1998-2004 NIFTY 963 1485 54%

POST REFORMS 2004-2008 NIFTY 1485 6350 328%

REFORMS 1998-2004 ACC 120 300 150%

POST REFORMS 2004-2008 ACC 300 1300 333%

REFORMS 1998-2004 INDIACEM 80 30 -63%

POST REFORMS 2004-2008 INDIACEM 30 330 1000%

REFORMS 1998-2004 SHREECEMENT 15 170 1033%

POST REFORMS 2004-2008 SHREECEMENT 170 17000 9900%

REFORMS 1998-2004 AMBUJA CEM 19 45 137%

POST REFORMS 2004-2008 AMBUJA CEM 45 160 256%

REFORMS 1998-2004 BIRLA CORP 23 48 109%

POST REFORMS 2004-2008 BIRLA CORP 48 245 410%


LARSEN TOUBRO

06:MA O D 07:F M J A O D 08:F M J A O D 09:F M J A O D 10:F M J A O D 11:F M J A S O D 12:F M J A S O D 13:F M J A S O D 14:F M J A S O D 15:F M J A S O D 16:F M J A S O D 17:F M J A S O D 18:F M J A

Lnr IRIS


300

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600

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800

850

900

950

1000

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1100

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1200

1250

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1350

1400

1450

Cr

5.00

10.00

15.00

1360.00

5.15

Price

Vol

LT [N11483] 1360.00, 4.43%

Mon

1

6

7

RISING TRIANGLE - BULLISH





NCC

05:J S O D 06:F M J A O D 07:F M J A O D 08:F M J A O D 09:F M J A O D 10:F M J A O D 11:F M J A O D 12:F M J A O D 13:F M J A O D 14:F M J A O D 15:F M J A O D 16:F M J A O D 17:F J J A O D 18:F J J A

Lnr IRIS

Source : www.SpiderSoftwareIndia.Com

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90.00

100

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230

Cr

7.50

15.00

22.50

99.25

17.96

Price

Vol

NCC [N2319] 99.25, 7.24%

Mon

3

121.24

4

121.24

5

121.24

6

121.24120/122

2309

237.46

10

57.63

11

14





ULTRATECH CEMCO

07:M A S O D08:J A M J A S O D09:J A M J A S O D10:J A M J A S O D11:J A M J A S O D12:J A M J A S O D13:J A M J A S O D14:J A M J A S O ND15:J A M J A S O ND16:J A M J A S O ND17:J A MJ J A S O D18:J A MJ J A

Lnr IRIS


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Lk

50.00

100

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4424.05

50.09

Price

Vol

ULTRACEMCO [N11532] 4424.05, 5.49%

Mon

0

1

4533.1011

4599.90

4600 ALL TIME HIGH

RISING BULLISH CHANNEL





ACC


94:N 95:MN96:J J S N97:J J S N 98:F A N99:J J S N00:J J S N01:J J S N 02:F A O 03:J J S N04:J J S N05:J J S N 06:F A O 07:J J S N08:J J S N 09:F A O 10:J J S N11:J J S N12:J J S N 13:F A O 14:J J S N15:J J S N 16:F A N17:J J S N18:J J

Lnr IRIS

Source : www.SpiderSoftwareIndia.Com75.00

150

225

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525

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1125

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Cr

5.00

10.00

15.00

1622.00

1.19

Price

Vol

ACC [N22] 1622.00, 6.03%

Mon

0

917.60

6

672.93

7

RISING BULLISH CHANNEL

D 0

Kotak Securities - Private Client Group - Path: Login to www.kotaksecurities.com > Research > Equity Reports > Stock Recommendation Snapshot




NIFTY HEADING FOR TRIANGLE HIEGHT 12000


17:A M J J A S O N D 18:J F M A M J J A

Lnr IRIS

Source : www.SpiderSoftwareIndia.Com 9100

9200

9300

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Cr

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11681.30

3026.37

Price

Vol

NSE NIFTY [N59901]11681.30, 2.86%

Mon

1220

13

20

10800+1200

Kotak Securities - Private Client Group - Path: Login to www.kotaksecurities.com > Research > Equity Reports > Stock Recommendation Snapshot




Technical Analysis: When to Buy/Sell Fundamental Analysis: Why to Buy/Sell

Question & Answer

Queries should be specific to stock that are in FNO segment.

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By referring to any particular sector, Kotak Securities Limited does not provide any promise or assurance of favourable view for a particular industry or sector orbusiness group in any manner. The investor is requested to take into consideration all the risk factors including their financial condition, suitability to risk returnprofile and take professional advice before investing. Such representations are not indicative of future results.

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Thank You

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Q&A Session

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