Shaping migration policies for economic recovery Rainer M ü nz

E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G

OE 0196 0337 page 1 July 7, 2009

Shaping migration policies for economic recovery

Rainer Münz

Seminar: Tracking migration trends in Europe during recession and recovery


OE 0196 0337 page 2 July 7, 2009

“Migration Trends, Demographic Outlook and the Need for Smart Migration Policies ”

Rainer MünzErste Group Bank AG, Head of Research & Development

Policy Network Seminar “In or Out ? Tracking migration trends in Europe during the recession and recovery”London, July 7, 2009


page 3Policy Network seminar

London 7, 200901960337 / R. Münz

Europe‘s Migration Pattern



London 7, 200901960337 / R. Münz

From Emigration to Immigration



London 7, 200901960337 / R. Münz Quelle: UN Population Division 2000; Darstellung: Humboldt-Universität Berlin

.

-2 to 0 0 to +2+2 to +5

below -5

-5 to -2

over +5

Europe: From Emigration to Immigration, 1950-1960 (annual net migration rate per 1000 inhabitants)

Source: Eurostat, UN




.

-2 to 00 to +2+2 to +5

below -5

-5 to -2

over +5


Quelle: Eurostat, UN




.

-2 to 0 0 to +2+2 to +5

below -5

-5 to -2

over +5

Source: Eurostat, UN




London 7, 200901960337 / R. Münz

EU27: Immigration Minus Emigration, 1960-2007 (annual abs. numbers)

Quelle: Eurostat



London 7, 200901960337 / R. Münz

Today



London 7, 200901960337 / R. Münz

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

in m

n

2008

Excess of births

Net migrationgain

Total populationgrowth

80% of Europe’s Population Growth Comes From Immigration …



London 7, 200901960337 / R. Münz

… But the Situation Varies From Country to Country (2008, in 100,000 people)

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Ger

man

y

UK

Fra

nce

Au

stri

a

Irel

and

Ital

y

Sp

ain

Bel

giu

m

Slo

ven

ia

Hu

ng

ary

Po

lan

d

Lit

hu

ania

Ro

man

ia

Bu

lgar

ia

Nat. pop. change

Net. migration

Total pop. change

100

,00

0 p

eop

le

Source: Eurostat



London 7, 200901960337 / R. Münz

Again More Migration Within Europe



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90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

Employment GDP

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

Employment GDP

EU10 (CE/SEE)

GDP Growth in Central Europe (EU10) vs. Employment Growth in Western Europe (EU15)

EU-15

EU10

EU15

Source: wiiw



London 7, 200901960337 / R. Münz Source: Eurostat, Berlin Institute

Growth vs. Decline in Employment 2000-2005 in %



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0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

CZ

HU

LV

SI

SK

PL

EE

LT

Citizens of New EU Member States Increasingly Working in the West(CE work force working in EU 15 in % of total work force, 2007)

Source: WIIW. Eurostat, OECD



London 7, 200901960337 / R. Münz

Diagramm 3: Immigration population in the EU-15 by origin (source: Münz and Fassmann, 2004)

EU West18%

Turkey7% other

CEE/SEE7%

EU CE/SEE10%

EU South11%

Africa, Asia, MENA31%

South America, Caribbean

13%

North America3%

43 Million Migrants EU 27: Where Do They Have Come From?

Source: Labour Force Survey 2007

14 million migrants from other EU member states

29 million migrants from (today‘s) third countries

- among them: 19 million from Africa, Asia, South America



London 7, 200901960337 / R. Münz

Employment rates by citizenship, 2007 in %

Source: EU LFS, Berlin Institute



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European Migration and the Crisis



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European Migration in Times of Crisis

−Return migration within EU−Additional incentives by EU governments for

non-EU migrants to go back−Fewer remittances−Are we loosing people with talent and skills that

we will soon need again?



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European Migration in Times of Crisis

−So far: More men than women have lost their jobs− In certain sectors and regions: growth of

unemployment quicker among native-born than among foreign-born workers

−Rigidities of the labour markets−Rigidities of the housing markets



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Future Challanges for Europe



London 7, 200901960337 / R. Münz

Europe Is Getting Older! Population Structure in EU27, 2008 and 2060

1,00 0,75 0,50 0,25 0,00 0,25 0,50 0,75 1,00

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Age

Per cent

Men (2008) Women (2008) Men (2060) Women (2060)

Men Women

Source: Eurostat, Convergence Scenario, Europop2008



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Development of Labour Force and Old-Age-Dependency Ratio (no migration)

236

214

17034%

52%

84%

120

180

240

300

2005 2025 2050

La

bo

r fo

rce

in m

n

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Ag

e g

rou

p 6

5+

/lob

or

fore

ce

in %

Labor force Age group 65+/labor forceSource: Eurostat, Convergence Scenario, Europop2008



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Development of Labour Force and Old-Age-Dependency Ratio (+50 million immigrants)

236229

207

34%

49%

72%

120

180

240

300

2005 2025 2050

La

bo

r fo

rce

in m

n

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Ag

e g

rou

p 6

5+

/lob

or

fore

ce

in %

Labor force Age group 65+/labor forceSource: Eurostat, Convergence Scenario, Europop2008



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Who Does Best in Migration Policy?

−Traditional immigration countries as a bench mark

−UK−Sweden−Do we need joint action at EU level



London 7, 200901960337 / R. Münz

What Do We Need?

−Smart migration policies−A truly open single EU labour market−The willingness and ability to make use of

talents and skills of future migrants −Better integration



London 7, 200901960337 / R. Münz

Rainer [email protected]

Thank You!

Shaping migration policies for economic recovery Rainer M ü nz

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