SFEI LOOKING BACK :

LOOKING FORWARD

The RMP has always been composed The RMP has always been composed of a diverse (odd ?) set of individualsof a diverse (odd ?) set of individuals

SCIENTISTSSCIENTISTS

ENGINEERSENGINEERS

INDUSTRY

ENVIRONMENTALISTS

SUMMARY FIRST RMP ANNUAL MEETING

“IT’S BEEN A LOVE FEST”

(Steve Ritchey: SF RWQCB)

15 YEARS LATERSF BAY : NATIONAL

MODEL

(Sañudo-Wilhelmy et al., 2004. Environmental Science & Technology)

THE PROBLEM - ELSEWHERE

Literature Survey metals in US estuaries 1975-2002

Results only 83 published articles no data ~ 1/2 US estuaries Only long term metal

studies SF Bay

Most studies in other Most studies in other estuaries being done by estuaries being done by RMP alumniRMP alumni

Sañudo-Wilhelmy et al., 2004

RMP ALUMNI * CONDUCTING RMP ALUMNI * CONDUCTING ESTUARINE STUDIES ESTUARINE STUDIES

ELSEWHEREELSEWHEREEast Coast:East Coast:

Sergio Sañudo *Sergio Sañudo * Stony BrookStony Brook Mark WellsMark Wells MaineMaine

Greg Cutter *Greg Cutter * ODUODU John DonatJohn Donat ODUODU

Gulf Coast:Gulf Coast:Gary Gill *Gary Gill * Texas A&MTexas A&MBill LandingBill Landing Florida StateFlorida State

Far East Coast:Far East Coast:Kuria Ndung’u *Kuria Ndung’u * SwedenSweden

* still involved in SF Bay-Delta studies* still involved in SF Bay-Delta studies* incomplete * incomplete listinglisting

RMP ALUMNI * RMP ALUMNI * REGULATING ESTUARINE REGULATING ESTUARINE

STUDIESSTUDIES

Priya GanguliPriya Ganguli SF RWQCBSF RWQCB

Peter KozelkaPeter Kozelka US EPAUS EPA

Jon PhinneyJon Phinney NOAANOAA

Ignacio RiveraIgnacio Rivera US NavyUS Navy

Doug StedingDoug Steding Supreme Supreme Court*Court*

* incomplete listing* incomplete listing * circa 2010* circa 2010

THE PROBLEM IN SF BAY150 YEARS OF POLLUTION 15 YEARS OF RMP DATA*

Gold RushGold RushMercury MinesMercury Mines

Golden GateGolden GateRed LeadRed Lead

Silver EstuarySilver EstuaryIndustrial DischargesIndustrial Discharges

Urban EstuaryUrban EstuaryPeriodic TablePeriodic Table

* prenascent RMP data collection began in 1989

MERCURY IN SF BAY

SFEI Summary Time Series Data

OTHER PROBLEMS WITH SF BAY

Physical Complexity Hydrologic ComplexityPhysical Complexity Hydrologic Complexity

RMP DATA QUANTIFY TEMPORAL CHANGESAg & Pb in the South Bay (1989-

2000)Dissolved Ag:

40% declineDissolved Pb:

no decline

Total Ag: 70% decline

Total Pb: 40% decline

Squire et al., 2002. ES&TSquire et al., 2002. ES&T

RMP DATA ENABLE PROJECTIONS

Cooke et al., URS & Monismith et al., StanfordSchubel et al., 2003

RMP DATA MODEL LIMITATIONS

Small data setSmall data setLimited spatial coverageLimited spatial coverageAssumptions of constancy in an inconstant worldAssumptions of constancy in an inconstant world

Flegal et al., 1991

It is safer to interpolate than It is safer to interpolate than extrapolateextrapolate

RMP DATA FOSTER RMP DATA FOSTER COLLABORATIONS & INNOVATIONSCOLLABORATIONS & INNOVATIONS

MEANINGFUL WATER QUALITY MEANINGFUL WATER QUALITY CRITERIACRITERIA

EMERGING CONCERNSPopulation growth

water demandscontaminant inputs

Urbanizationsurface runoff

Negative sediment budgetcontaminant re-exposure

Global warmingreduced fresh water flowsreduced sediment flows

Sewall and Sloan, 2004, JGR

SUMMARY 15 YEARS OF RMP

“IT’S STILL GROOVY”

Russ Flegal, Aging Hippie

““TOTAL DISSOLVED” : “FREE” TOTAL DISSOLVED” : “FREE” COPPERCOPPER