SF Technical Cost Benchmarks Final - Home - Rocky Mountain ... · 1 Multifamily*NetZero...

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1 Multifamily Net Zero Retrofit Market: Technical and Cost Benchmarks for San Francisco

Transcript of SF Technical Cost Benchmarks Final - Home - Rocky Mountain ... · 1 Multifamily*NetZero...

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Multifamily Net Zero Retrofit Market:Technical and Cost Benchmarks

for San Francisco

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• Acronym Key

• Analysis Process

• Retrofit Economics

• Technical Analysis Details– 6 Unit Building Analysis Results

– 15 Unit Building Analysis Results

– 65 Unit Building Analysis Results

Table of Contents

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ACEEE – American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy

ACH50 – Air Changes Per Hour Taken at 50 Pascals

AFUE – Annual Fuel Utilization Efficiency

ASHRAE – American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air-­Conditioning Engineers

BAU – Business As Usual

BB – Baseboard

BEopt – NREL’s Building Energy Optimization Model

CFL – Compact Fluorescent Lamp

CO2 – Carbon Dioxide

DHW – Domestic Hot Water

ECM – Energy Conservation Measure

EE – Energy Efficiency

EIA – Energy Information Administration

EUI – Energy Use Intensity

GPM – Gallons Per Minute

HP – Heat Pump

HPHW – Heat Pump Hot Water

HSPF – Heating Seasonal Performance Factor

HVAC – Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning

HW – Hot Water

ITC – Solar Investment Tax Credit

kBTU – Kilo British Thermal Unit

kW – Kilo Watt

LB -­ Pound

LED – Light Emitting Diode

LIHTC – Low Income Housing Tax Credit

Low-­E – Low-­emittance

NREL – National Renewable Energy Lab

NZEc – Net Zero Carbon

NPV – Net Present Value

PG&E MUP – Pacific Gas & Electric Multifamily Upgrade Program

PV – Present Value

SAM – System Advisor Model

SEER – Seasonal Energy Efficiency Ratio

SF – Square Foot

Solar PV – Solar Photovoltaic

STD – Standard

YR -­ Year

Acronym Key

Analysis Process

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Retrofit Technical and Cost Benchmark ProcessA detailed “how-­to” guide is available that explains key considerations

and gives resources to complete each step

Step 8: Optimize Analysis To Hit Net Zero In The Most Cost Effective WayUsed BEopt to optimize efficiency package

Step 7: FinancingUsed a 15 and 25 year analysis period and 5% discount rate;; incentives included LIHTC, PG&E MUP, and ITC

Step 6: Utility EconomicsDetermined utility escalation rates, typical rate structure, and carbon produced from electricity and natural gas

Step 5: Solar AnalysisUsed SAM to determine carbon offset of solar arrays with different efficiency and racking configurations

Step 4: Energy Conservation MeasuresIncluded envelope, lighting, HVAC, rooftop PV, offsite renewables, and appliances in analysis

Step 3: Select Prototypical BuildingsThree prototype buildings were selected: 6 unit, 15 unit, and 65 unit

Step 2: Identify Appropriate Modeling Tools and Data SetsBuilding Energy Optimization (BEopt) and System Advisor Model (SAM) were the modeling tools used

Step 1: Determine Scope of ProjectAffordable multifamily buildings in greater San Francisco were analyzed for net zero carbon

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Modeling Tools Used

Building Energy Optimization (BEopt) System Advisor Model (SAM)

BEopt was used to optimize EE measures and SAM was used to do a detailed solar analysis. Because these were done in two separate programs a degree of manual optimization was required.

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Defining “Net Zero”

This analysis defined net zero as net zero carbon, which is achieved when an equivalent unit of carbon-­free renewable energy is produced (on or off site) to offset each unit of fossil fuel energy used by the building.

BEopt uses site energy to calculate carbonElectric: Carbon Factor: 0.427 lb/kWh from PG&E 2013 (last verified)Gas: Carbon Factor: 14.150 lb/therm from ASHRAE STD 105

Building CO2 Production: Electricity: 36 tons/yr

Gas: 4 tons/yr

Renewable CO2 Offset:40 tons/yr

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Three Prototypical San Francisco Building Types

The majority of affordable multifamily buildings in San Francisco were constructed prior to 1980, have gas furnace heating, and are three stories or less.

+ Greater San Francisco Bay Area has 69,857 affordable housing units* 58% of San Francisco homes use natural gas, 36% electricity according to an ACEEE 2017 report

Category: 5-­9 unit buildings Market Share+: 8.9% (~6.2K units)

6 Unit Prototype• Built pre-­1980s • 4,725 sf• 3 stories • Row home• Furnace, no cooling*• Individual gas HW heater

Category: 10-­19 unit buildings Market Share+: 22.5% (~16K units)

15 Unit Prototype • Built pre-­1980s• 11,270 sf• 3 stories• Stand alone building• Furnace, no cooling*• Central gas HW heater

Category: 20+ unit building Market Share+: 66.2% (~46K units)

65 Unit Prototype • Built pre-­1980s• 40,900 sf• 5 stories• Stand alone building• Central boiler, no cooling* • Central gas HW heater

Retrofit Economics

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Results Summary

For the 6 and 15 unit prototypes, there are many existing cost-­effective paths to net zero via custom retrofits. Net zero is technically feasible for 65 units, but not cost effective.

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6 Unit Prototype: Analysis Key Take-­aways

NZEc Mini-­Split Retrofit

• Site EUI of 17.6 kBtu/sf • No offsite renewables

required• No envelope upgrades

required;; great for buildings with complex envelope

• Provides optional cooling• Market-­ready technology• All electric solution• 25 YR NPV* with

incentives: $61,200 • 8.7 year simple payback

period

*Energy savings PV calculated using a 5% discount rate and an escalation rate of 2.35%, which is a blended average based on 10years of gas and electric escalation in California from the EIA. 25 years selected as life of retrofit package. Water and sewage savings calculated assuming 5% discount rate and 5% escalation rate.

Several retrofit paths to net zero are cost effective now. Further cost-­reduction would be helpful to make the business case even more compelling.

NZEc Baseboard + Envelope Retrofit

• Site EUI of 17.4 kBtu/sf • No offsite renewables

required• Great for buildings that

want to electrify• Market-­ready technology• All electric solution• 25 YR NPV* with

incentives: $64,400 • 8.1 year simple payback

period

NZEc Envelope Retrofit

• Site EUI of 17.8 kBtu/sf • No offsite renewables

required• No HVAC upgrade

required;; great for buildings with recently replaced HVAC or improving aesthetics

• Market-­ready technology• 25 YR NPV* with

incentives: $62,900 • 8.2 year simple payback

period

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15 Unit Prototype: Analysis Key Take-­aways

NZEc Mini-­Split Retrofit

• Site EUI of 19.5 kBtu/sf • No offsite renewables

required• No envelope upgrades

required;; great for buildings with complex envelope

• Provides optional cooling• Market-­ready technology• All electric solution• 25 YR NPV* with

incentives: $187,000 • 8.5 year simple payback

period

NZEc Baseboard + Envelope Retrofit

• Site EUI of 20.9 kBtu/sf • No offsite renewables

required• Great for buildings that

want to electrify• Market-­ready technology• All electric solution• 25 YR NPV* with

incentives: $213,000 • 7.1 year simple payback

period

NZEc Envelope Retrofit

• Site EUI of 20.6 kBtu/sf • No offsite renewables

required• No HVAC upgrade

required;; great for buildings with recently replaced HVAC or improving aesthetics

• Market-­ready technology• 25 YR NPV* with

incentives: $189,000• 8.1 year simple payback

period

Several retrofit paths to net zero are cost effective now. Further cost-­reduction would be helpful to make the business case even more compelling.

*Energy savings PV calculated using a 5% discount rate and an escalation rate of 2.28%, which is a blended average based on 10years of gas and electric escalation in California from the EIA. 25 years selected as life of retrofit package. Water and sewage savings calculated assuming 5% discount rate and 5% escalation rate.

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65 Unit Prototype: Analysis Key Take-­aways

• Site EUI is 16.8 kBtu/sf• Can achieve NZEc with efficient rooftop

solar PV• Measures less cost effective than solar

PV required to reduce load• All electric solution• 25 YR NPV* with incentives: $295,000• 14.9 year simple payback period

Net zero retrofits for this prototype require cost reductions in order to achieve payback during a typical investment cycle of 15 years, but are cost effective in a 25 year analysis.

*Energy savings PV calculated using a 5% discount rate and an escalation rate of 2.48%, which is a blended average based on 10years of gas and electric escalation in California from the EIA. 25 years selected as life of retrofit package. Water and sewage savings calculated assuming 5% discount rate and 5% escalation rate.

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NZEc Retrofit Cost Benchmarks and Targets

*Energy savings PV calculated using a 5% discount rate and an escalation rate of 2.35% for the 6 unit prototype, 2.28% for the 15 unit prototype, and 2.48% for the 65 unit prototype. Escalation rates are a blended average based on 10 years of gas and electric escalation in California from the EIA. 25 years selected as life of retrofit package. Water and sewage savings calculated assuming 5% discount rate and 5% escalation rate.

6 Unit Prototype

15 Unit Prototype

65 Unit Prototype

Current Net Zero Carbon Retrofit Cost ($/Unit) $19,013 $22,255 $22,296

Cost With Current Incentives ($/Unit) $7,527 $8,985 $11,329

Price Point Using 25 Year Present Value* Utility Bill Savings ($/Unit) $17,997 $22,053 $12,189

Cost Reduction Required to be Paid for Through 25YR Utility Bill Savings (Without Incentives/With Incentives) 5.34% / 0% 0.9% / 0% 45.3% / 0%

Price Point for 10 Year Simple Payback Period ($/Unit) $9,045 $11,371 $5,867

Cost Reduction Required for 10 Year Simple Payback Period (Without Incentives/With Incentives) 52.4% / 0% 48.9% / 0%

73.7% / 48.2%

Benchmarks and targets were determined by averaging results from the selected net zero carbon retrofit packages for each prototype.

Technical Analysis Details

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• R-­15 wall insulation• R-­15 roof insulation• 4 ACH50 air leakage, no mechanical vent• Single pane windows• Keep existing furnace, natural gas, 72% AFUE• No cooling• Heat pump hot water heater, individual• 100% LED lights• Low flow water fixtures (1.8 gpm shower, 1.5 gpm sink)• ENERGY STAR clothes washer• 18.2 kW rooftop solar PV• Electric cooking range

6 Unit Prototype: Retrofit Packages

• R-­15 wall insulation• R-­15 roof insulation• 6 ACH50 air leakage, no mechanical vent• Single pane windows• Electric baseboards• No cooling• Heat pump hot water heater, individual• 100% LED lights• Low flow water fixtures (1.8 gpm shower, 1.5 gpm sink)• ENERGY STAR clothes washer• 17.5 kW rooftop solar PV• Electric cooking range

NZEc Baseboard + Envelope Retrofit NZEc Envelope Retrofit

• No wall upgrades• No roof upgrades• No air sealing improvements, no mechanical ventilation added• No window improvements• Mini-­split HP, 29.3 SEER, 14 HSPF• Heat pump hot water heater, individual• 100% LED lights• Low flow water fixtures (1.8 gpm shower, 1.5 gpm sink)• ENERGY STAR clothes washer• 17.8 kW rooftop solar PV• Electric cooking range

NZEc Mini-­Split Retrofit

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6 Unit Prototype: Retrofit Package Comparison

All three packages are comparable. The baseboard + envelope package would be the most cost-­effective maximizing financial benefits of solar under CA NEM, with lowest total cost. However, California Energy Code discourages electric resistance heating due to cost of grid electricity during peak periods (i.e. Time Dependent Valuation), so this solution may not be permitted.

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NZEc Mini-­Split NZEc BB+Envelope NZEc Envelope

Site EUI (kBtu/sf)

Gas EUI Electric EUI

NPV 15 Yr NPV 25 Yr

NPV* ($)

*Energy savings PV calculated using a 5% discount rate and an escalation rate of 2.35%, which is a blended average based on 10years of gas and electric escalation in California from the EIA. 25 years selected as life of retrofit package. 15 years selected as typical investment cycle for affordable housing. Water and sewage savings calculated assuming 5% discount rate and 5% escalation rate.

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51%

5%

13%

2%1%2%

6%

10%

5%

2%3%

Solar PV

HW Htr*

Envelope

NZEc Baseboard + Envelope Retrofit

50%

28%

12%

1%1% 2%

6%

Solar PV

HVAC

HW Htr*

Solar, HVAC, envelope, and hot water heater are the biggest cost drivers, and, therefore, are likely the best targets for cost savings through industrialized solutions.

53%

13%2%

1%2%

6%

10%

6%4%3%

Solar PV

Envelope

HW Htr*

NZEc Envelope RetrofitNZEc Mini-­Split Retrofit

6 Unit Prototype: Cost Comparison

Solar

*Htr -­ Heater

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0

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100,000

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400,000

Cost ($)

25YR PV Water + Sewage Bill 25YR PV Energy BillCost with Incentives Air LeakageRoof Insulation Wall InsulationElectric Range ENERGY STAR Clothes WasherLow Flow Fixtures LEDSolar PV HPWHHVAC

Mini-­split NZEcRetrofit

BAU Improvement

Envelope NZEc Retrofit

BB + Envelope NZEc Retrofit

6 Unit Prototype: NZEc Retrofit vs. BAU

With existing incentives, the NZEc retrofits are more cost effective than business as usual.

*Energy savings PV calculated using a 5% discount rate and an escalation rate of 2.35%, which is a blended average based on 10 years of gas and electric escalation in California from the EIA. 25 years selected as life of retrofit package. Water and sewage savings calculated assuming 5% discount rate and 5% escalation rate.

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6 Unit Prototype: ECMs Savings And Cost

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

Cost to Install Measure

Annual Carbon Saving (Metric Tons)

Mini-­split 14 HSPF HPHWLED Low flowENERGYSTAR washer Wall R-­15Roof R-­35 WindowReduce air leakage Smart Thermostat

Note: All measures compared to baseline building with furnace. Does not take into account interactive effects of each measure.

The most cost effective measures reduce DHW load and heating load. These independently modeled measures don’t account for reduced carbon savings from interactive effects.

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6 Unit Prototype: Incentives Available

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Cost ($)

Solar PV EE

LIHTC (4%)

NZEcRetrofit

NZEc Retrofit W/ Incentives

PG&E MUP

ITC

59%

Currently, incentives cut cost of net zero retrofit by almost two thirds.

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0

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2,000

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4,000

5,000

6,000

Annual Utility Bill ($)

GasElectric

Baseline Mini-­split NZEc Retrofit

BB+ Envelope NZEc Retrofit

Envelope NZEcRetrofit

6 Unit Prototype: Utility Bill Savings

86%

The net zero retrofits eliminate the annual energy utility bill, except for fixed costs.

86% 83%

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0

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40,000

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120,000

Savings ($)

PV 25* YR Utility Bill Savings

NPV 25* YR

The NPV of the net zero retrofit will result in positive savings in the typical 15 year investment cycle.

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Cost ($) 59%

Reduction

6 Unit Prototype: Summary Mini-­split Package

Incentives

PV 15* YR Utility Bill Savings

NPV 15* YR

NZEc Retrofit W/ Incentives

*Energy savings PV calculated using a 5% discount rate and an escalation rate of 2.35%, which is a blended average based on 10years of gas and electric escalation in California from the EIA. 25 years selected as life of retrofit package. 15 years selected as typical investment cycle for affordable housing. Water and sewage savings calculated assuming 5% discount rate and 5% escalation rate.

Planned Update Planned

Update

COST SAVINGS

Heat Pump NZEcRetrofit

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0

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40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Savings ($)

PV 25* YR Utility Bill Savings

NPV 25* YR

The NPV of the net zero retrofit will result in positive savings in the typical 15 year investment cycle. As noted previously, this solution may not pass Title 24 Energy Code, which discourages electric resistance heating.

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20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Cost ($)

61% Reduction

6 Unit Prototype: Summary Baseboard Package

Incentives

PV 15* YR Utility Bill Savings

NPV 15* YR

NZEc Retrofit W/ Incentives

*Energy savings PV calculated using a 5% discount rate and an escalation rate of 2.35%, which is a blended average based on 10 years of gas and electric escalation in California from the EIA. 25 years selected as life of retrofit package. 15 years selected as typical investment cycle for affordable housing. Water and sewage savings calculated assuming 5% discount rate and 5% escalation rate.

Planned Update Planned

Update

COST SAVINGS

Baseboard NZEcRetrofit

25

0

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120,000

Savings ($)

PV 25* YR Utility Bill Savings

NPV 25* YR

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Cost ($)

61% Reduction

6 Unit Prototype: Summary Envelope Package

Incentives

PV 15* YR Utility Bill Savings

NPV 15* YR

NZEc Retrofit W/ Incentives

Planned Update Planned

Update

COST SAVINGS

Baseboard NZEcRetrofit

*Energy savings PV calculated using a 5% discount rate and an escalation rate of 2.35%, which is a blended average based on 10years of gas and electric escalation in California from the EIA. 25 years selected as life of retrofit package. 15 years selected as typical investment cycle for affordable housing. Water and sewage savings calculated assuming 5% discount rate and 5% escalation rate.

The NPV of the net zero retrofit will result in positive savings in the typical 15 year investment cycle.

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• R-­15 wall insulation• R-­15 roof insulation• 5 ACH50 air leakage, no mechanical vent• No window improvements• Keep existing furnace, natural gas, 72% AFUE• No cooling• Heat pump hot water heater, individual• 100% LED lights• Low flow water fixtures (1.8 gpm shower, 1.5 gpm sink)• ENERGY STAR clothes washer• Electric cooking range• 55.6 kW rooftop solar PV

15 Unit Prototype: Retrofit Packages

• R-­12 wall insulation• R-­15 roof insulation• No air sealing improvements, no mechanical ventilation added• No window improvements• Electric baseboards• No cooling• Heat pump hot water heater, individual• 100% LED lights• Low flow water fixtures (1.8 gpm shower, 1.5 gpm sink)• ENERGY STAR clothes washer• Electric cooking range• 55.6 kW rooftop solar PV

NZEc Baseboard + Envelope Retrofit NZEc Envelope Retrofit

• R-­12 Wall Insulation• No roof upgrades• No air sealing improvements, no mechanical ventilation added• No window improvements• Mini-­split HP, 29.3 SEER, 14 HSPF• Smart thermostat• Heat pump hot water heater, central• 100% LED lights• Low flow water fixtures (1.8 gpm shower, 1.5 gpm sink)• ENERGY STAR clothes washer• Electric cooking range• 51.9 kW rooftop solar PV

NZEc Mini-­Split Retrofit

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15 Unit Prototype: Retrofit Package Comparison

All three packages are comparable. The baseboard + envelope package would be the most cost-­effective –maximizing financial benefits of solar under CA Net Energy Metering, with lowest total cost. However, California Energy Code discourages electric resistance heating due to cost of grid electricity during peak periods (i.e. Time Dependent Valuation), so this solution may not be permitted.

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Mini-­split NZEc BB + Envelope NZEc Envelope NZEc

Site EUI (kBtu/sf)

Gas EUI Electricity EUINPV 15 Yr NPV 25 Yr

NPV* ($)

*Energy savings PV calculated using a 5% discount rate and an escalation rate of 2.28%, which is a blended average based on 10years of gas and electric escalation in California from the EIA. 25 years selected as life of retrofit package. 15 years selected as typical investment cycle for affordable housing. Water and sewage savings calculated assuming 5% discount rate and 5% escalation rate.

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61%

4%3%2%

1%2%

5%

10%

12%

Solar PV

Envelope

NZEc Baseboard + Envelope Retrofit

52%

23%

3%1%1% 2% 5%

11%2%

Solar PVHVAC

Solar, HVAC, and envelope are the biggest cost drivers, and, therefore, are likely the best targets for cost savings through industrialized solutions.

57%

3%1%1%2%

5%

9%13%

9%

Solar PV

Envelope

NZEc Envelope RetrofitNZEc Mini-­Split Retrofit

15 Unit Prototype: Cost Breakdown

Solar

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0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,000

1,000,000

Cost ($)

25YR PV Water + Sewage Bill 25YR PV Energy BillCost with Incentives Air LeakageRoof Insulation Wall InsulationElectric Range ENERGY STAR Clothes WasherLow Flow Fixtures LEDSolar PV HPWHHVAC

Mini-­split NZEcRetrofit

BAU Improvement

Envelope NZEc Retrofit

BB + Envelope NZEc Retrofit

15 Unit Prototype: NZEc Retrofit vs. BAU

With current incentives, the NZEc retrofits are more cost effective than business as usual.

*Energy savings PV calculated using a 5% discount rate and an escalation rate of 2.28%, which is a blended average based on 10 years of gas and electric escalation in California from the EIA. 25 years selected as life of retrofit package. Water and sewage savings calculated assuming 5% discount rate and 5% escalation rate.

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15 Unit Prototype: EE With Furnace Baseline

The most cost effective measures reduce DHW load and heating load. These independently modeled measures don’t account for reduced carbon savings from interactive effects.

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$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

$100,000

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Cost to Install Measure

Annual Carbon Saving (Metric Tons)

HP 14 HSPFHPHWLEDLow FlowENERGYSTAR WasherWall R-­12Roof R-­35Window3 ACH50Smart Thermostat

Note: All measures compared to baseline building with furnace. Does not take into account interactive effects of each measure.

31

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150,000

200,000

250,000

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Cost ($)

Solar PV EE

15 Unit Prototype: Incentives Available

LIHTC (4%)

NZ Retrofit

NZ Retrofit W/ Incentives

PG&E MUP

ITC

58%

Current incentives drastically reduce the cost of net zero retrofits.

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0

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4,000

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8,000

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12,000

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Annual Utility Bill ($)

GasElectric

Baseline Mini-­split NZEc Retrofit

BB+ Envelope NZEc Retrofit

Envelope NZEcRetrofit

15 Unit Prototype: Utility Bill Savings

89%

The net zero retrofits eliminate the annual energy utility bill except for fixed costs.

89% 86%

33

0

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100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

Savings ($)

PV 25* YR Utility Bill Savings

NPV 25* YR

The NPV of the net zero retrofit will result in positive savings in the typical 15 year investment cycle.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

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Cost ($) 58%

Reduction

15 Unit Prototype: Summary Mini-­split Package

Incentives

PV 15* YR Utility Bill Savings

NPV 15* YR

NZ Retrofit W/ Incentives

*Energy savings PV calculated using a 5% discount rate and an escalation rate of 2.28%, which is a blended average based on 10years of gas and electric escalation in California from the EIA. 25 years selected as life of retrofit package. 15 years selected as typical investment cycle for affordable housing. Water and sewage savings calculated assuming 5% discount rate and 5% escalation rate.

Planned Updates Planned

Updates

COST SAVINGS

NZ Retrofit

34

0

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200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

Cost ($)

61% Reduction

0

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100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

Savings ($)

PV 25* YR Utility Bill Savings

NPV 25* YR

The NPV of the net zero retrofit will result in positive savings in the typical 15 year investment cycle. As noted previously, this solution may not pass Title 24 Energy Code, which discourages electric resistance heating.

15 Unit Prototype: Summary Baseboard Package

Incentives

PV 15* YR Utility Bill Savings

NPV 15* YR

NZ Retrofit W/ Incentives

*Energy savings PV calculated using a 5% discount rate and an escalation rate of 2.28%, which is a blended average based on 10years of gas and electric escalation in California from the EIA. 25 years selected as life of retrofit package. 15 years selected as typical investment cycle for affordable housing. Water and sewage savings calculated assuming 5% discount rate and 5% escalation rate.

Planned Updates Planned

Updates

COST SAVINGS

NZ Retrofit

35

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

Cost ($) 60%

Reduction

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

Savings ($)

PV 25* YR Utility Bill Savings

NPV 25* YR

The NPV of the net zero retrofit will result in positive savings in the typical 15 year investment cycle.

15 Unit Prototype: Summary Envelope Package

Incentives

PV 15* YR Utility Bill Savings

NPV 15* YR

NZ Retrofit W/ Incentives

*Energy savings PV calculated using a 5% discount rate and an escalation rate of 2.28%, which is a blended average based on 10years of gas and electric escalation in California from the EIA. 25 years selected as life of retrofit package. 15 years selected as typical investment cycle for affordable housing. Water and sewage savings calculated assuming 5% discount rate and 5% escalation rate.

Planned Updates Planned

Updates

COST SAVINGS

NZ Retrofit

36

65 Unit Prototype: Retrofit Package

• Masonry walls, uninsulated• 2x6 wood framed roof• 7 ACH50 air leakage, no mechanical vent• Single pane windows• Central hot water boiler serving radiators• No cooling• Non-­programmable thermostat• Hot water heater, natural gas, central• 67% incandescent, 33% CFL lights• Standard water fixtures (2.5 gpm shower, 2.2 gpm sink)• Conventional appliances• Gas cooking range

Baseline Building Proposed Net-­Zero Retrofit

• R-­15 continuous exterior insulation• R-­35 roof• 4 ACH50 air leakage, no mechanical vent• Low-­E, double pane windows• Minisplit HP, 29.3 SEER, 14 HSPF• Smart thermostat• Heat pump hot water heater, central• 100% LED lights• Low flow water fixtures • ENERGY STAR clothes washer• ENERGY STAR refrigerator• Heat pump dryer• Electric induction cooking range• 167 kW rooftop solar PV or 208,000 kWh from community choice aggregator

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65 Unit Prototype: Cost Breakdown

Solar, HVAC, envelope, and appliances are the biggest cost drivers, and, therefore, are likely the best targets for cost savings through industrialized solutions.

33%

20%

2%1%1%

15%

2%

26%

Solar PVMini SplitHPWHLEDLow Flow FixturesAppliancesSmart ThermostatEnvelope

Solar PV

Appliances

Envelope

HVAC

38

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

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4,000,000

4,500,000

Cost ($)

25YR PV Water + Sewage Bill 25YR PV Energy BillCost with Incentives Solar PVSmart Thermostat Low Flow FixturesLED HPWHMini Split EnvelopeAppliances

NZEc Retrofit W/ Rooftop Solar

BAU Improvement

NZEc Retrofit W/ Offsite Renewables

65 Unit Prototype: NZEc Retrofit vs. BAU

The NZEc retrofits are comparable to business as usual during the life of the retrofit package.

*Energy savings PV calculated using a 5% discount rate and an escalation rate of 2.48%, which is a blended average based on 10 years of gas and electric escalation in California from the EIA. 25 years selected as life of retrofit package. Water and sewage savings calculated assuming 5% discount rate and 5% escalation rate.

39

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Cost to Install Measure

Annual Carbon Saving (Metric Tons)

HP 29.3 SEERHPHWLEDLow FlowENERGYSTAR WasherWall R-­15Roof R-­35WindowAir LeakageSmart Thermostat

65 Unit Prototype: ECMs Savings And Cost

Note: All measures compared to baseline building with furnace. Does not take into account interactive effects of each measure.

The most cost effective measures reduce DHW load and heating load. These independently modeled measures don’t account for reduced carbon savings from interactive effects.

40

0200,000400,000600,000800,000

1,000,0001,200,0001,400,0001,600,0001,800,0002,000,000

Cost ($)

Solar PV EE

65 Unit Prototype: Incentives with Rooftop PV

LIHTC (4%)

NZEcRetrofit

NZEc Retrofit W/ Incentives

PG&E MUP

ITC

51%

Incentives cut the cost of a net zero retrofit by half.

41

65 Unit Prototype: Renewable Program vs. Rooftop Solar PV

Using this approach requires investment in deep energy efficiency measures and rooftop solar

Approach 1: Rooftop Photovoltaics Approach 2: CleanPowerSF (Offsite Renewables)

CleanPowerSF avoids upfront cost of rooftop PV, creating a fairly easy path to NZEc even in high rise buildings, but adds ~2 cents/kWh to utility bill

CleanPowerSF allows for lower upfront costs and rooftop solar PV provides lower total cost of ownership.

42

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Annual Utility Bill ($)

100% Renewable ElectricGasElectric

Baseline Proposed with Rooftop Solar PV

Proposed with CleanPowerSF

65 Unit Prototype: Energy Utility Bill

85%

Fixed costs

Renewable power programs almost eliminate utility bill savings from energy efficiency.

11%

43

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

Cost ($)

51% Reduction

-­200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

Savings ($)

PV 25* YR Utility Bill Savings

NPV 25* YR

The NPV of the net zero retrofit will not break even in the typical 15 year investment cycle, but saves money over life of the retrofit.

65 Unit Prototype: Summary Rooftop Solar PV

Incentives

PV 15* YR Utility Bill Savings

NPV 15* YR

NZEc Retrofit W/ Incentives

*Energy savings PV calculated using a 5% discount rate and an escalation rate of 2.48%, which is a blended average based on 10years of gas and electric escalation in California from the EIA. 25 years selected as life of retrofit package. 15 years selected as typical investment cycle for affordable housing. Water and sewage savings calculated assuming 5% discount rate and 5% escalation rate.

BAU BAU

COST SAVINGS

NZEc Retrofit

44

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

Cost ($)

47% Reduction

-­400,000

-­300,000

-­200,000

-­100,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

Savings ($)

PV 25* YR Utility Bill Savings

NPV 25* YR

Although CleanPowerSF allows for lower upfront costs, the reduction in energy savings make it far less cost effective than rooftop solar PV.

65 Unit Prototype: Summary Offsite Renewables

Incentives

PV 15* YR Utility Bill Savings

NPV 15* YR

NZEc Retrofit W/ Incentives

BAU BAU

COST SAVINGS

NZEc Retrofit

*Energy savings PV calculated using a 5% discount rate and an escalation rate of 2.48%, which is a blended average based on 10years of gas and electric escalation in California from the EIA. 25 years selected as life of retrofit package. 15 years selected as typical investment cycle for affordable housing. Water and sewage savings calculated assuming 5% discount rate and 5% escalation rate.