Sevin Ekinci Turkey November 2011. Main Subjects Economic Prospects for 2012 Politics- A new...
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![Page 1: Sevin Ekinci Turkey November 2011. Main Subjects Economic Prospects for 2012 Politics- A new constitution Governmental system-AKP targets 2023 Foreign.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f315503460f94c4d506/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Sevin Ekinci
TurkeyNovember 2011
![Page 2: Sevin Ekinci Turkey November 2011. Main Subjects Economic Prospects for 2012 Politics- A new constitution Governmental system-AKP targets 2023 Foreign.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f315503460f94c4d506/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Main Subjects
• Economic Prospects for 2012
• Politics- A new constitution
• Governmental system-AKP targets 2023
• Foreign Relations (EU, Cyprus, ME, NA)
![Page 3: Sevin Ekinci Turkey November 2011. Main Subjects Economic Prospects for 2012 Politics- A new constitution Governmental system-AKP targets 2023 Foreign.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f315503460f94c4d506/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Economic ProspectsA Relative Advantage
![Page 4: Sevin Ekinci Turkey November 2011. Main Subjects Economic Prospects for 2012 Politics- A new constitution Governmental system-AKP targets 2023 Foreign.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f315503460f94c4d506/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Economic ProspectsA Relative Advantage
![Page 5: Sevin Ekinci Turkey November 2011. Main Subjects Economic Prospects for 2012 Politics- A new constitution Governmental system-AKP targets 2023 Foreign.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f315503460f94c4d506/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Economic ProspectsA Relative Advantage
![Page 6: Sevin Ekinci Turkey November 2011. Main Subjects Economic Prospects for 2012 Politics- A new constitution Governmental system-AKP targets 2023 Foreign.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f315503460f94c4d506/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Economic ProspectsA Relative Advantage
![Page 7: Sevin Ekinci Turkey November 2011. Main Subjects Economic Prospects for 2012 Politics- A new constitution Governmental system-AKP targets 2023 Foreign.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f315503460f94c4d506/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Economic ProspectsA Relative Advantage
![Page 8: Sevin Ekinci Turkey November 2011. Main Subjects Economic Prospects for 2012 Politics- A new constitution Governmental system-AKP targets 2023 Foreign.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f315503460f94c4d506/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Economic Prospects
• Proactive monetary policy
The objective of macroprudential policy is to reduce systemic risk by
1. Reducing the pro-cyclicality of the financial sector
2. Improving its resilience to adverse shocks; by explicitly incorporating the inter-linkages between, and common exposures of, all institutions
![Page 9: Sevin Ekinci Turkey November 2011. Main Subjects Economic Prospects for 2012 Politics- A new constitution Governmental system-AKP targets 2023 Foreign.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f315503460f94c4d506/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Proactive monetary policy yielded its return
![Page 10: Sevin Ekinci Turkey November 2011. Main Subjects Economic Prospects for 2012 Politics- A new constitution Governmental system-AKP targets 2023 Foreign.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f315503460f94c4d506/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Economic Prospects: lower credit use would ease current account deficit
![Page 11: Sevin Ekinci Turkey November 2011. Main Subjects Economic Prospects for 2012 Politics- A new constitution Governmental system-AKP targets 2023 Foreign.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f315503460f94c4d506/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
We have more positive prospects than market consensus
![Page 12: Sevin Ekinci Turkey November 2011. Main Subjects Economic Prospects for 2012 Politics- A new constitution Governmental system-AKP targets 2023 Foreign.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f315503460f94c4d506/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Politics
• A new Constitution
Process:Debates between AKP-CHP-BDP-MHPJoint opinions of AKP-CHP-BDP-MHP
Most likely scenario:A referendum by end-2012 which overrules presidential system.
![Page 13: Sevin Ekinci Turkey November 2011. Main Subjects Economic Prospects for 2012 Politics- A new constitution Governmental system-AKP targets 2023 Foreign.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f315503460f94c4d506/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Governmental system
• AKP targets 2023Medium-Term Economic Program covers 2012-2014; no ambition yet strong fiscal policy projections.Next elections-2014 (presidential); 2015 (parliamentary)
• Can they achieve to their 2023 target?Well it is conditional… On domestic and International developments (EU, Cyprus, Israel, Middle
East and North Africa)
![Page 14: Sevin Ekinci Turkey November 2011. Main Subjects Economic Prospects for 2012 Politics- A new constitution Governmental system-AKP targets 2023 Foreign.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f315503460f94c4d506/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Foreign Relations
• How the economy works in Turkey
• EU• Cyprus• Middle East• North Africa• Israel