United Utilities Sources – WFD Environmental Assessment Report
SEVENTH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME THEME 6 … · NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference ......
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NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference – Gold Coast 29 June – 1 July 2010 Adaptive strategies to Mitigate the Impacts of Climate Change on European Freshwater Ecosystems Martin Kernan Environmental Change Research Centre University College London SEVENTH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME THEME 6 Environment (including Climate Change) Collaborative large-scale integrating project Started: Feb 1 st 2010 Duration: 4 years Consortium of 25 partners (Europe, Canada & Australia)
Transcript of SEVENTH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME THEME 6 … · NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference ......
NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference – Gold Coast 29 June – 1 July 2010
Adaptive strategies to Mitigate theImpacts of Climate Change onEuropean Freshwater Ecosystems
Martin KernanEnvironmental Change Research CentreUniversity College London
SEVENTH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME THEME 6
Environment (including Climate Change)
Collaborative large-scale integrating projectStarted: Feb 1st 2010Duration: 4 years
Consortium of 25 partners (Europe, Canada & Australia)
NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference – Gold Coast 29 June – 1 July 2010
“The REFRESH programme is concerned with the development of a systemthat will enable water managers to design cost-effective restorationprogrammes for freshwater ecosystems at the local and catchment scalesthat account for the expected future impacts of climate change and land-usechange in the context of the Water Framework and Habitats Directives”
“At its centre is a process-based evaluation of the specific adaptive measures thatmight be taken at these different scales to minimise the expected adverseconsequences of climate change on freshwater quantity, quality and biodiversity.”
NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference – Gold Coast 29 June – 1 July 2010
WP1 Strategies, scenarios, stakeholders
T1 Adaptation Strategies T2 Scenarios T3 Engaging Stakeholders
WP2 Rivers
T1 Temperature
T2 Drought
T3 Nutrients
T1 Temperature
T2 Drought
T6 Adaptation
T4 Thresholds
T5 Indicators
WP3 Lakes
T1 Temperature
T3 Nutrients, OM
T1 Temperature
T2 Water level
T6 Adaptation
T4 Thresholds
T5 Indicators
WP4 Wetlands
T1 Temperature
T2 Drought/Flood
T3 Nutrients
T1 Temperature
T6 Adaptation
T4 Thresholds
T5 Indicators
WP5Integrated ModellingEcosystem modelsModel ChainingManagement optionsUncertaintyBridging
WP6Cost effectivenessProfiling catchmentsSub-catchmentsScoping solutionsCost-effectiveness analysesWider benefits
WP7DisseminationBest practice strategyStakeholder workshopsDemonstration case studiesPolicy oriented reports
REFRESH – Project structure
NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference – Gold Coast 29 June – 1 July 2010
WP1 Strategies, scenarios, stakeholdersSetting the scene…..Adaptation StrategiesReviews of strategies for rivers, wetlandsand lakes at different scalesScenarios for Europe (2010-2060)CLIMATELAND-USEN DEPOSITIONWATER RESOURCE USEThe scenario framework will be used todevelop a series of coherent storylines fordemonstration catchmentsEngaging stakeholdersEarly dialogue with the user communitywith respect to the scenarios andstorylines to be used in REFRESHExplore potential barriers to theimplementation of measures beingevaluated.
NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference – Gold Coast 29 June – 1 July 2010
WP2 Rivers
T1 Temperature
T2 Drought
T3 Nutrients
T1 Temperature
T2 Drought
T6 Adaptation
T4 Thresholds
T5 Indicators
WP3 Lakes
T1 Temperature
T3 Nutrients, OM
T1 Temperature
T2 Water level
T6 Adaptation
T4 Thresholds
T5 Indicators
WP4 Wetlands
T1 Temperature
T2 Drought/Flood
T3 Nutrients
T1 Temperature
T6 Adaptation
T4 Thresholds
T5 Indicators
Further our understanding of the processes that govern the relationship betweentemperature, hydrology (and salinity) and nutrient/organic matter loading and thestructure, function and biodiversity of freshwater ecosystems;
Co-ordinatedExperimentsRivers &Wetlands
Field & mesocosms experiments, time series analyses,palaeolimnology, modelling
Understanding how the functioning of freshwater ecosystems is affected by climatechangeWhile earlier studies on climate change, including Euro-limpacs, focused on trophicstructure, relatively little is known about how climate change affects ecosystemfunctioning. Controlling ecosystem functioning is at the heart of adaptivemanagement
NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference – Gold Coast 29 June – 1 July 2010
Shading experiments Drought/low-flow experimentsFlooding experiments
STREAMS & RIPARIAN WETLAND EXPERIMENTS
STREAMSBetter understand temperature processesIdentify temperature disturbance regimeBetter understand low flow/drought processesIdentify low flow/drought disturbance regimeBetter understand nutrient / OM processesIdentify nutrient / OM disturbance regime
To understand better the processes and effects ofmultiple stress induced by climate/global change uponriver ecosystem functioning and biodiversity and usethis to identify adaptive management measures.
NutrientsLow HighNutrientsLow High
NutrientsLow High
WETLANDSImpacts of temperature on wetlandfunctioning and biodiversityImpacts of changes in flooding anddrought on wetland functioning andbiodiversityImpacts of nutrient loading on effects ofincreased temperature and flooding(interactions with changes in hydrologiclregime)
NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference – Gold Coast 29 June – 1 July 2010
LAKE EXPERIMENTS
Mesocosms
Lake level experiments
Temperature constraints onmanagement success in lakes
Water level (salinity) constraints
Nutrient and organic matterconstraints on managementsuccess in lakes
Effects on trophicstructure, ecologicalfunction andbiodiversity
NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference – Gold Coast 29 June – 1 July 2010
Field experiments in along latitude gradient in Europe (fromSweden to Turkey)
NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference – Gold Coast 29 June – 1 July 2010
WP2 Rivers
T1 Temperature
T2 Drought
T3 Nutrients
T1 Temperature
T2 Drought
T6 Adaptation
T4 Thresholds
T5 Indicators
WP3 Lakes
T1 Temperature
T3 Nutrients, OM
T1 Temperature
T2 Water level
T6 Adaptation
T4 Thresholds
T5 Indicators
WP4 Wetlands
T1 Temperature
T2 Drought/Flood
T3 Nutrients
T1 Temperature
T6 Adaptation
T4 Thresholds
T5 Indicators
THRESHOLDS & REFERENCECONDITIONSIdentify ecological relevant thresholds anddynamic reference conditions in streams
What are temperature, flooding and nutrientloading thresholds for riparian wetland keyfunctions and biodiversity? Can we definereference conditions?
Guidelines on thresholds for temperature,water level, salinity, nutrients and organicmatter in European lakes – identification ofreference conditions with a flexible, changebased methodology
INDICATORSIdentify key effect parameters(indicators) for climate changein streams
Which ecological responsevariables can be used asindicators for wetland keyfunctions and biodiversity?Tools for vulnerabilityassessment?
Identify ecological indicatorsand functional responseparameters of temperature,flow and nutrients / OM
ADAPTATIONIdentify adaptive managementstrategies in streams, riparianwetlands and lakes
METHODS
review existing data;meta-analysis;spatial and timeseries datasets;palaeolimnology
NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference – Gold Coast 29 June – 1 July 2010
New indicators of functional response, tools for assessing vulnerability anddynamic reference conditionsIn REFRESH we will develop a new set of system indicators for freshwatersfocusing essentially on ecological indicators sensitive to the functionalresponse of rivers, lakes and wetlands to changes in temperature, flow/water-level and nutrient/organic matter loading. We will also develop new tools forassessing vulnerability to climate change which take into account both sitespecific and landscape (e.g. associated with connectivity, dispersal migration)scale threats. We will examine how the concept of a dynamic referencecondition can be built into WFD and HD methodologies.
NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference – Gold Coast 29 June – 1 July 2010
WP2 Rivers
T1 Temperature
T2 Drought
T3 Nutrients
T1 Temperature
T2 Drought
T6 Adaptation
T4 Thresholds
T5 Indicators
WP3 Lakes
T1 Temperature
T3 Nutrients, OM
T1 Temperature
T2 Water level
T6 Adaptation
T4 Thresholds
T5 Indicators
WP4 Wetlands
T1 Temperature
T2 Drought/Flood
T3 Nutrients
T1 Temperature
T6 Adaptation
T4 Thresholds
T5 Indicators
WP5Integrated ModellingEcosystem modelsModel ChainingManagement optionsUncertaintyBridging
“Ultimate objective … develop parsimonious integratedmodels… robust simulations of future water quantity,quality and ecology at the catchment scale”
Objectives – better:1. Inclusion of ecology2. Connectivity3. Scenario assessment (with uncertainty) to designadaptation and cost effective restoration at local andcatchment scales
INTEGRATEDCATCHMENTMODELLING
NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference – Gold Coast 29 June – 1 July 2010
1. Integration of ecosystem models forrivers, lakes and wetlands with modelsof key ecological vulnerability indicatorsto determine interactions betweenclimate and land use managementchange and freshwater ecology
CatchmentBiogeochemical Model
Ecological response –functional parameters
NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference – Gold Coast 29 June – 1 July 2010
2. Integrated andchained models tocouple river, lake andwetland systems to theriver catchment scale
AOGCM
T, PRCM HBV
MAGIC
INCA-N
FJORD
Q
HER,SMD
Q
NO3
NO3
+ Windspeed
Chaining the new hydrological – water quality –ecological models means complex systemswhich incorporate a mixture of rivers, lakes,wetlands and the riparian zone can beconsidered
NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference – Gold Coast 29 June – 1 July 2010
COST-EFFECTIVE MITIGATIONADAPTATION AND RESTORATION
STRATEGIES
NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference – Gold Coast 29 June – 1 July 2010
OBJECTIVES
• To discover whatanthropogenic practicescompromise water qualityand/or environmental qualityin selected Europeancatchments
• To find cost-effective meansof mitigating climate-changeinduced damage to waterquality and considerreinstatement possibilities
• To assess whether thesecompliance costs areproportionate
• To assess whethercompliance deliverschanges in the values ofother ecosystem services
NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference – Gold Coast 29 June – 1 July 2010
Application of model chains at key demonstration sites to determine theecological response (using vulnerability indices) to climate and land-coverchange for different adaptation, mitigation and restoration options
Downscaled climate scenarios Land use scenarios Deposition scenarios Water use scenarios
NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference – Gold Coast 29 June – 1 July 2010
Storylines /scenarios
MODEL OUTCOME
Adaptation / response
WP1.
This work is likely to be done on a sub-catchment
NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference – Gold Coast 29 June – 1 July 2010
Storylines /scenarios
MODEL OUTCOME
Adaptation / response
x3max.
WP1.
MeetsWFD,HD?
Yes
No
WP6.
NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference – Gold Coast 29 June – 1 July 2010
NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference – Gold Coast 29 June – 1 July 2010
Engaging Stakeholders
To feed into Project designWorkshops involving stakeholders
Barriers to implementation workshop in Autumn 20101st: Scotland (River Dee)2nd: Greece (River Loures)
High-level stakeholder workshopApril 2011 possibly together with the next project meeting2-3 regional representatives per demonstration catchment
DisseminationUsual means …Web site etc - http://www.refresh.ucl.ac.uk/Regional stakeholder workshopsBest practice strategy documentsDemonstration case studiesCross sectoral policy briefings
