SEVENTH CLEAN ENERGY MINISTERIAL
Transcript of SEVENTH CLEAN ENERGY MINISTERIAL
SEVENTH CLEAN ENERGY MINISTERIAL
Michael LiebreichChairman of the Advisory BoardTwitter: @mliebreich
San Francisco2 May 2016
1Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
THE PARIS OPPORTUNITY
Image: UNFCCC
2Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
Source: UNFCCC, UNEP, Climate Action Tracker
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS(GTCO2)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Historical emissions
INDC trajectory
Pre-COP21 pledges
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Historical emissions 2°C trajectory
INDC trajectory
Pre-COP21 pledges
3Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY (MTOE)
10,000
5,000
1,000
0
Renewable energy
Natural gas
OilCoal
Nuclear
4Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 1975 (MTOE)
10,000
5,000
1,000
1975
Renewable energy
Natural gas
OilCoal
Nuclear
5Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 1980 (MTOE)
10,000
5,000
1,000
1980
Renewable energy
Natural gas
OilCoal
Nuclear
6Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 1985 (MTOE)
10,000
5,000
1,000
1985
Renewable energy
Natural gas
OilCoal
Nuclear
7Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 1990 (MTOE)
10,000
5,000
1,000
1990
Renewable energy
Natural gas
OilCoal
Nuclear
8Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 1995 (MTOE)
10,000
5,000
1,000
1995
Renewable energy
Natural gas
OilCoal
Nuclear
9Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 2000 (MTOE)
10,000
5,000
1,000
2000
Renewable energy
Natural gas
OilCoal
Nuclear
10Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 2005 (MTOE)
10,000
5,000
1,000
2005
Renewable energy
Natural gas
OilCoal
Nuclear
11Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 2010 (MTOE)
10,000
5,000
1,000
2010
Renewable energy
Natural gas
OilCoal
Nuclear
12Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 2015 (MTOE)
10,000
5,000
1,000
2015
Renewable energy
Natural gas
OilCoal
Nuclear
13Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY (MTOE)
10,000
5,000
1,000
2015
Renewable energy
Natural gas
OilCoal
Nuclear
BNEF 2040
14Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY (MTOE)
10,000
5,000
1,000
2015
Renewable energy
Natural gas
OilCoal
Nuclear
BNEF 2040
IEA 450ppm 2040
15Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Paris illustrative scenario assumes some carbon capture. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY (MTOE)
10,000
5,000
1,000
2015
Renewable energy
Natural gas
OilCoal
Nuclear
BNEF 2040
IEA 450ppm 2040
Illustrative Paris scenario
before 2100
16Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
We need anenergy miracle
Picture: Bloomberg
ENERGY MIRACLE
Bill GatesFebruary 2016
17Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
$62bn$88bn
$128bn
$175bn$206bn $207bn
$274bn
$318bn$297bn
$272bn
$316bn$329bn
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
$146/bbl
Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). Excludes large hydro.
Source: Bloomberg Intelligence, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT ROSE WHILE OIL PLUMMETEDGLOBAL CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT VS WTI CRUDE SPOT 2004-15
$48/bbl
Record investment
18Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016Source: UNEP, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
INVESTMENT IN POWER CAPACITY, 2008–15 ($BN)
Renewables ex large hydro
Fossil fuel
Nuclear
Large hydro
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
19Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016Note: New investment volume adjusts for re-invested equity. Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Source: Bloomberg New Energy FInance
RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT, 2004–15 BY REGION ($BN NOMINAL)
5.611.9
29.133.2
35.5
23.9
34.7
49.140.6
35.337.0
44.1
'04'05'06'07'08'09'10'11'12'13'14'15
United States
0.83.15.211.411.8
7.97.210.27.74.48.07.1
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Brazil1.73.33.75.06.15.5
12.09.310.112.0
13.312.8
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
AMER (excl. US & Brazil)
24.833.3
46.9
66.881.882.7
113.4122.9
89.0
60.062.0
48.8
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Europe
7.39.010.012.413.613.919.3
23.830.2
44.448.8
47.6
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
ASOC (excl. China & India)
3.08.311.2
16.725.6
38.839.6
47.461.7
62.087.8
102.9
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
China
2.73.04.96.75.64.38.8
12.87.86.68.3
10.2
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
India
0.60.81.11.82.31.64.13.010.29.37.9
12.5
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Middle East & Africa
20Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
2011 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGYWORLD RECORDS
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; ImagesSiemens; Wikimedia Commons
ONSHORE WIND SOLAR PV
US$ 6.2 cents/kWh US$ 17 cents/kWh
21Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGYWORLD RECORDS
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; ImagesSiemens; Wikimedia Commons
ONSHORE WIND SOLAR PV
Location:Bidder:Signed:Construction:Price:
MoroccoEnel Green PowerJanuary 20162018US$ 3.0 c/kWh
Location:Bidder:Signed:Construction:Price:
PeruEnel Green PowerFebruary 20162017US$ 4.8 c/kWh
22Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGYWORLD RECORDS
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; ImagesSiemens; Wikimedia Commons
ONSHORE WIND SOLAR PV
Location:Bidder:Signed:Construction:Price:
MoroccoEnel Green PowerJanuary 20162018US$ 3.0 c/kWh
Location:Bidder:Signed:Construction:Price:
Coahuila, MexicoEnel Green PowerMarch 20162018US$ 3.6 c/kWh
23Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGYWORLD RECORDS
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; ImagesSiemens; Wikimedia Commons
ONSHORE WIND SOLAR PV
Location:Bidder:Signed:Construction:Price:
MoroccoEnel Green PowerJanuary 20162018US$ 3.0 c/kWh
Location:Bidder:Signed:Construction: Price:
DubaiMasdar ConsortiumMay 20162019US$ 2.99 c/kWh
24Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
0.1
1
10
100
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
2003
1976
1985
2008
Cumulative capacity (MW)
Current 2015 price
WIND AND SOLAR EXPERIENCE CURVES
Note: Pricing data has been inflation corrected to 2014. We assume the debt ratio of 70%, cost of debt (bps to LIBOR) of 175, cost of equity of 8%
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Note: Prices are in real (2015) USD. ‘Current price’ is $0.61/W
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Maycock
ONSHORE WIND LEVELISED COST ($/MWh) SOLAR PV MODULE COST ($/W)
Learning rate 24.3%
MODULE COSTS HAVE FALLEN
99% SINCE 197680% SINCE 2008
y = 3,582.42x-0.30
R² = 0.91
16
32
64
128
256
512
1,024
100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
1985
20252014
Learning rate =19%R² = 0.91
Thailand
Brazil
Germany
US
H1 2015
19992009
1,024
512
256
128
64
32
100 1,000 10,000
16
100,000 1,000,000
Learning rate 19%
1985
1999
2009
20142025
H2 2015
Learning rate 19%
WIND COSTS HAVE FALLEN
50% SINCE 2009
25Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
RENEWABLE ENERGY - THE MARCH OF THE PRICE SIGNAL
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
2000
26Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
RENEWABLE ENERGY - THE MARCH OF THE PRICE SIGNAL
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
2001
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
27Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
RENEWABLE ENERGY - THE MARCH OF THE PRICE SIGNAL
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
2002
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
28Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
RENEWABLE ENERGY - THE MARCH OF THE PRICE SIGNAL
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
2003
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
29Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
RENEWABLE ENERGY - THE MARCH OF THE PRICE SIGNAL
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
2004
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
30Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
RENEWABLE ENERGY - THE MARCH OF THE PRICE SIGNAL
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
2005
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
31Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
RENEWABLE ENERGY - THE MARCH OF THE PRICE SIGNAL
Market-based mechanisms – eg, renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
2006
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
32Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
RENEWABLE ENERGY - THE MARCH OF THE PRICE SIGNAL
Market-based mechanisms – eg, renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
2007
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
33Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
RENEWABLE ENERGY - THE MARCH OF THE PRICE SIGNAL
Market-based mechanisms – eg, renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
2008
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
34Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
RENEWABLE ENERGY - THE MARCH OF THE PRICE SIGNAL
Market-based mechanisms – eg, renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
2009
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
35Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
RENEWABLE ENERGY - THE MARCH OF THE PRICE SIGNAL
Market-based mechanisms – eg, renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
2010
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
36Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
RENEWABLE ENERGY - THE MARCH OF THE PRICE SIGNAL
Market-based mechanisms – eg, renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
2011
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
37Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
RENEWABLE ENERGY - THE MARCH OF THE PRICE SIGNAL
Market-based mechanisms – eg, renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
2012
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
38Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
RENEWABLE ENERGY - THE MARCH OF THE PRICE SIGNAL
Market-based mechanisms – eg, renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
2013
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
39Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
RENEWABLE ENERGY - THE MARCH OF THE PRICE SIGNAL
Market-based mechanisms – eg, renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
2014
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
40Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
RENEWABLE ENERGY - THE MARCH OF THE PRICE SIGNAL
Market-based mechanisms – eg, renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
2015
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
41Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
RENEWABLE ENERGY - THE MARCH OF THE PRICE SIGNAL
Market-based mechanisms – eg, renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
2016
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
42Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
PRICE IMPACT OF SWITCH FROM FIT TO AUCTIONS, SELECTED COUNTRIES (NORMALISED)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
+3+2+10-1-2-30
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
+3+2+10-1-2-3
Solar PV(unit price normalised to 100 at date of first auction)
Onshore Wind(unit price normalised to 100 at date of first auction)
: non-tariff price signals
: tariffs
: auctions
KEY
EMEA
Other LatAmBrazil
India
South Africa
- 30% - 50% - 35% - 60%
43Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
ENERGY MIRACLE – SOLAR?
Images: Gatesnotes.com, D-Light; Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
44Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
9 15 21 30
40 51
62 74
2 4
4 6
8
12
17
25
1 2 5 11
19 25
36
48
62
79
99
2010 2012 2014 2016f 2018f 2020f
Note: Large solar home systems are defined as larger than 10W solar panels. Historical data is based on Lighting Global and GOGLA data and Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates.
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Lighting Global, GOGLA
OFF-GRID SOLAR USERS (MILLION HOUSEHOLDS)
Large solar home systems
Portable solar lanterns and small home systems
or
45Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
Tesla Model 3
BMW i3
VW e-Golf
Chevy Bolt
Nissan LeafImages: Tesla, BMW, VW, GM, Nissan
EV MASS MARKET$30,000 + 200 MILES RANGE
46Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
m vehicles sold per year % of new car sales
Note: forecast uses Gasoline and electricity prices from EIA’s 2015 Annual Energy Outlook ‘Low Oil Price’ scenario (ranging from $50 to $65 per barrel between 2015 and 2025). High scenario assumes greater vehicle utilisation. Low scenario assumes $20 per barrel oil price Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
GLOBAL LIGHT DUTY VEHICLE AND EV ANNUAL SALES, 2015–40 (M VEHICLES SOLD PER YEAR, %)
By 2040Up to 50%
of new cars will be EVs
Shared vehiclescenario
$20 oilscenario
ICE + HEV BEV PHEV EV % of new sales
47Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
Note: TOE is tonnes of oil equivalent Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
ELECTRIFICATION OF GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 20160
2
4
6
8
10
12
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 20160
2
4
6
8
10
12
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
Electricity
Transport fuels
Non-transport
fuels
Heat
ELECTRICITY SHARE OF FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION (%)STRUCTURE OF FINAL ENERGY (BN TOE)
On current trends, the world
economy will be 100% electric by
the year 2340
+0.25% per year
48Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
MANAGING INTERMITTENCYTHE BIG CHALLENGE – THE BIG OPPORTUNITY
II. CONTINUOUS BALANCING
III. CONTROLLING FREQUENCY
I. PLANNING FOR EXTREMES
Demand
Variable supply
Years to Months Days to minutes Seconds to minutes
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
49Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichSeventh Clean Energy Ministerial, 2 June 2016
I'm not sure whether the optimists or the pessimists are right, but I do know this: it is the optimists who will get something done.
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