Seven Indicators are Rising Air temperature over land Sea-surface temperature
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Transcript of Seven Indicators are Rising Air temperature over land Sea-surface temperature
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Seven Indicators are Rising• Air temperature over land•Sea-surface temperature•Air temperature over oceans•Sea level•Ocean heat•Humidity•Tropospheric temperature
Three Indicators are Declining•Arctic sea ice•Glaciers•Spring snow cover in Northern Hemisphere
NASA
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IPCC 2007
Natural Moderating of the Earth’s Atmosphere
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The Human Factor
http://www.nps.gov/goga/naturescience/climate-change-causes.htm
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Humans are responsiblefor recent warming
Natural variation cannot account for recent warming
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International Energy Agency“The message from our latest World Energy Outlook, released in November [2011], is clear – unless we change course immediately, then by 2017 we will have “locked-in” the carbon allowance of the energy sector to 2035, if we are to limit global temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius. In other words, on our current path, by 2017 we will have built long-lived CO2-emitting energy infrastructure that will require all additional energy infrastructure to be zero-carbon, or we will fall short of our goal.” (Official statement at UNFCCC COP17)
450 ppm 2 deg C limit
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Global Annual Mean Surface Air Temperature Change
• base period 1951-1980• dotted black line is the annual mean• solid red line is the five-year mean• green bars show uncertainty estimates
NASA
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Impacts of a Warming World
+1.5o C – Vital for low-lying island states to survive
• Arctic sea ice already disappearing
• Most of the world's corals will die
• Glaciers retreat• Climate related disease
vectors
+2o C – The maximum temperature limit the scientists warn
• Heat waves; extreme weather events
• Amazon turns into desert and grasslands
• World's oceans too acidic for remaining coral reefs and other marine life forms
• West Antarctic ice sheet collapse; Greenland ice sheet melts; Sea level rises 7 m
• A third of the world's species become extinct (habitat changes too abrupt)
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Above +2 deg our children inherit a world we would not recognize
+3o C – Looking increasingly likely
• Global warming may run out of control
• Efforts to mitigate may be in vain• Much of Amazon rainforest could
burn down• Southern Africa, Australia,
western US – desertification• Scarcer food and water
worldwide• Gulf Stream decline and changes
weather patterns in Europe
+4o C – Extreme danger zone
• Arctic permafrost releases methane and carbon dioxide locked in soils
• Arctic ice cover would disappear permanently (extinction of polar bears & native species)
• Further 5m rise in the sea level
+5 C – heaven help us!Global average temperatures
hotter than for 50 million years
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Youth Protests
Canadian youth turn their backs on the Canadian Minister of the Environment
Abigail Borah interrupts Todd Stern press conference
http://www.wearepowershift.org/category/tags/abigail-borah
http://canadianyouthdelegation.wordpress.com/2011/12/07/press-release-youth-turn-their-backs-on-canadian-government-during-opening-speech/
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Fossil of the Day
http://www.climatenetwork.org/fossil-of-the-day/new-zealand-earns-first-place-fossil-united-states-and-canada-share-%E2%80%9Ccolossal-foss
The Fossil of the Day goes to the countries that hold up negotiations the most. The US won Fossil of the Year