Setting up the stage Marine Global Changes...09.00 – 09.20 – Revisiting the definitions [Piero]...
Transcript of Setting up the stage Marine Global Changes...09.00 – 09.20 – Revisiting the definitions [Piero]...
CeMEB Advanced course Marine Evolution under Climate
Change
Setting up the stage
Marine Global Changes
09.00 – 09.20 – Revisiting the definitions [Piero] 09.20 - 10.00 – Setting up the stage – marine global changes [Sam] 10.00 – 10.30 – Coffee/tea 10.30 – 11.30 – Adaptation potential and quantitative genetics [Sam] 11.30 – 12.00 – Organization of the afternoon [Sam] 12.00 – 13.00 – Lunch 13.00 – 17.00 – Group discussion + Boat trip + Practicals [All] 17.00 – 18.00 – Dinner 18.00 - … - Pub & Group Discussion
Day 2
Marine Global Changes
Blue planet – 70% of oceans
Services?
Regulate climate Production of oxygen
The cradle of life - 90% of all species - 33 / 35 animal phyla in the sea (17 ONLY in the sea) - Unlimited diversity of size, adaptation, life history traits, body plans, etc.
The last frontier - 1500 new species described every year - only 1% of the deep sea explored
Direct economic value
Direct economic value
Traditional Chinese Medicine Medicine / Biotechnology
e.g. Frondoside A
Other interests
Scientific model species Iconic species
Sir John Carew Eccles Alan Lloyd Hodgkin Andrew Fielding Huxley
Leland H. Hartwell Jim Hunt Paul Nurse
Roger Tsien, Martin Chalfie & Osamu Shimomura 2008
The ocean is an unlimited source of goods and services
- Food - Recreation - Compounds - Climate - Etc.
But the ocean is an limited resource
Marine Global Changes
What are the symptoms ?
Marine Global changes
What are the causes ?
Planet infected by humans
13.86BY
Big Bang
4.6BY
Formation of the earth
4.45BY
Formation of the moon
3.85BY
Ocean & first cell
1.4BY first cell nucleus 0.53BY
first fish
0.23BY
first dinosaur
0.0002BY
first humans
Present 0.0000002BY
Industrial revolution
A short history of the universe
13.86BY Present
0 2 months 1 year
10 months 11 mo 11.5 mo
= 4h old = 1 second
A long year…
2x
The problem: human demography
« The combustion of coal by man. (…) In the geologically insignificant period of 1000 years the percentage of carbonic acid could therefore be doubled by this cause alone, if all other factors remained constant. The action of the ocean will retard and diminish any alteration in the percentage of carbonic acid in the atmosphere. These processes must be considered as extremely rapid. I shall not go into the problem of biological (…) importance of high percentage of carbonic acid which must certainly be very great. »
… since 1904 …
A global impact… CO2 emissions
The disease: CO2 emissions
1914-1918 WWI
1929 Stock Marker Crash
1940-1945 WWII
1973 Oil Embargo
1979 Peak Oil Price
1990-1991 Gulf War
Fossil fuels – 7.7 Petagr C every year Deforestation – 1.1 Petagr C every year
Total – 8.8 Petagr C every year
PETAGRAM???
1015 gr
1000000000000000 gr
1 billion tons
CO2 emissions
Chris Sabine – ASLO 2011
1 car = 100 Tons of coal (80% C)
How long is the “emission” train ???
CO2 emissions
8.8 Petagr C y-1
= 110 millions of cars = 44 times around the earth
26% absorbed by the oceans
= 1 x per second
CO2 emissions
The skeptics… The CO2 concentration was has been much higher in the past
(Prentice et al. 2001)
Symptoms: 1/ Global warming
- Temperature correlates with [CO2]atm - Temperature increased of 0.7ºC since 1750 - 1.4 to 5.8ºC expected by 2100
Other symptoms
2/ More catastrophic events
3/ Rise of sea level
Hoegh-Guldberg & Bruno 2010 Science
GROUP ASSIGNMENT #5 Can there be selection for extreme events?
Other symptoms
4/ Decreased salinity
5/ Hypoxia
CO2 + H2O H2CO3
CO2
30% more acidic since 1800 Two times more acidic by 2100
6/ Ocean acidification
CO2 + H20 H2CO3 HCO3- + H+ CO3
2- + 2H+ CO3
2- + Ca2+ CaCO3
OA = carbonate chemistry perturbation
(Doney et al. 2009)
Ocean acidification is happening now
(Turley et al. 2006)
Ocean acidification
Faster/higher changes than in 20 millions years
GROUP ASSIGNMENT #1 Impact of the rate of change?
Ocean acidification is happening now… In Sweden
The symptoms: Global warming Catastrophic events Sea level rise Hypoxia Salinity changes Ocean acidification
The cause: Humans (CO2)
Zalasiewicz et al. 2008
Global increase of human population and a high CO2 world - Global warming - Ocean acidification - Hypoxia - Increased precipitation - Increased catastrophic events
Local impacts including: - habitat destruction - over-exploitation of resources - local pollution - Introduction of species - etc.
Global changes on top of local’s
GROUP ASSIGNMENT #3 How to assess evolution in a multi-stressor world?
Large geographical variations
(courtesy Tatiana Ilyina)
Need locally relevant scenarios
Large temporal variations
Not only for pH (temperature, food, etc.)
To understand the impact of OA on an individual you need to take into account:
- Local scenarios - Local variability - Local stressors and other modulating
factors
GROUP ASSIGNMENT #2 Selection in a fluctuating environment, what is driving the response?
The only thing constantly changing is change and it comes equipped with a curse
A changing world
Marine Global Changes
©Robin Paris (1994)
What society expect from us? Ocean in a high
CO2 world: What will be the consequence on marine species /
population / ecosystems /
services?
Urgent need to predict (?)
Welcome into the Anthropocene…
The Big fives 1. Cretaceous-Tertiary (50% genera) 2. Triassic-Jurassic (58% genera) 3. Permian-Triassic (83% genera) 4. Late Devonian (50% genera) 5. Ordovician-Silurian (57% genera)
… past OA episode
The 3rd extinction (end of Permian)
The 3rd extinction (end of Permian)
(Knoll et al. 2007)
Extinction of 92% of all marine species
Welcome into the Anthropocene…
The 6th extinction
A lot of evidences… Coral bleaching (GW)
Species fitness (GW/SWrise)
-High productivity / diversity -Up to 70% mortality -Good and services
Species distribution (GW)
Hugues et al. 2010
Ecosystem shift
Richardson et al 2009 TREE
overfishing
eutrophication
warming acidification
Ecosystem shift
What do we know?
1. GC is real, fast and related to CO2 emissions
2. Impact of GW on marine species, ecosystems and services is certain (Marine ecosystems will change)
3. This impact can be dramatic, including species extinction within decades
What we do not know Proof of concept
Acclimation
Adaptation potential
Carry-over effects Environmental
variability
Ecological interactions
Synergy between stressors
Measured parameters
Not 1 species with the requested level of information BUT we mostly under-estimate the impact
KEY ROLE OF EVOLUTION???
CeMEB Advanced course Marine Evolution under Climate
Change
Setting up the stage
Marine Global Changes
A timely course
Navigating the future
Global changes as a research
priority
Panel discussion
at UN
A major threat
WGII: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability Yokohama, Japan 25-29 March 2014
A major threat
Climate negociations
Society problem
Politics
Economists
Citizens Scientists
What can (shall) we do?
Fight? Flight? or nothing?
- NOTHING: Adapt to the consequences - FIGHT: Work on the cause (decrease CO2) - FLIGHT: Work on the symptoms (buy some time)
Option 1: nothing
COST/BENEFIT ANALYSIS (not what would be the cost of OA but what would be the benefits of doing something) Do nothing but
- create funds to cover the future loss (cost of restoration) - Adaptation (adapt to the loss)
Naughty boys
Nice Guys Can’t Get Girls
Parents: You have to be nice Naughty boy: Why? What will be the benefit for me?
Scientists: We have to decrease the CO2 emissions Economists: Why? What would be the benefits?
Option 2: Fight Work on the cause (CO2 emissions)
C40 is a network of the world’s megacities taking action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. + Renewable energy, improve energy efficiency, etc.
"the deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth’s climate system, in order to moderate climate change”
Option 2: Fight Geoengineering (CO2 emissions)
Sorcerer’s apprentice
Option 2: Fight 1. Iron fertilization
increase marine biological productivity (photosynthesis) by adding iron
- Not efficient - Side effects (e.g toxic algae) - Increase anoxia
”It is premature to sell carbon offsets from ocean fertilization” (Buesseler et al. 2008)
Option 2: Fight 2. Ocean alkalinization
CaCO3 + CO2 + H2O -> Ca2+ + HCO3-
- Side effects? - Cost/Feasability
Accelerate the natural process of weathering to combat global warming and OA
Option 2: Fight 2. Ocean alkalinization
Olivine
”Let the earth help up to save the earth” (Olaf Schuiling)
Mg2SiO4 + 4CO2+ 4H2O -> 2Mg++ + 4HCO3
- + H4SiO4
- Feasible - Cheap - Side effects?
3. Carbon Capture and Storage
- Increase acidification - Ecosystem effects
Option 2: Fight
3. Carbon Capture and Storage
- Leakage - Ecosystem effects
Option 2: Fight
Option 3: Flight Ex: Solar radiation management
Atmospheric projects Stratospheric sulfur aerosols - Reflective aerosols or dust - Cloud whitening / marine cloud brightening / cloud reflectivity enhancement - Ocean sulfur cycle enhancement - Reflective balloons - Cloud seeding
Terrestrial albedo modification Cool roof - Reflective sheeting - Ocean changes
Farming, forestry, and land management Forestry - Grassland management - High-albedo crop varieties
Space projects Space mirrors - Moon dust - Dispersive solutions
Option 3: Flight 1. Reduce other stressors [local]
Citizens more willing to pay for the costs (Kelly et al. 2012)
- Coupling monitoring to oyster hatcheries - Take advantage of spatial variability - Select ”climate proof strains” [e.g. Parker et al.]
Option 3: Flight 2. Adaptations
Option 3: GMO 2. Adaptations
What can we do?
Decrease CO2 emissions we know enough
Science can help to buy some time e.g. increase ecosystem resilience e.g. act on other pressures (local vs global) e.g. select resilient strains e.g. identify hotspots (socio-eco, chemistry, biology)
More research is needed
BUT… Uncertainty is not an excuse for inaction
• Between 2005 and 2009, Washington and Oregon shellfish hatcheries suffered disastrous production losses
• Some experienced 100% mortality of Pacific oyster larvae
• Increased acidity was the culprit
• Pacific oysters as the “canary in the coal mine”
Success story
Identification and implementation of solutions [monitoring, culturing methods]
From problem to action Problem: Acid rains and lake acidification
Origin: SOx/NOx
Solution: Clean gas (scrubber)
Problem: Ocean acidification
Origin: CO2
Solution: Monitoring + New culturing methods
Problem: Ocean acidification / warming
Origin: CO2
Solution: Decrease CO2 emission
But… still facing consequences
Key role of evolution
Better understanding of modulating role (predictability)
Buy some time & adaptation
Others?