Dr. Louis W. UccelliniDirector

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

UCACN MeetingOctober 25, 2012

Setting the Stage

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• NOAA/NWS Update• Summary of Progress on UCACN

Recommendations• FY12 Highlights• FY13: A Look Ahead• Challenges

Outline

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NOAA/NWS Update

• Leadership Changes Across NOAA and NWS– Dr. David Titley became NOAA Deputy Under

secretary for Operations in June 2012

– Laura Furgione became Acting Director of NWS in May 2012

• Budget Uncertainties– Limited funding during six month Continuing Resolution (CR)– Election results will be key to full year funding levels

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NOAA/NWS Update

Summary of UCACN Recommendations

Strategic• Move to NCWCP• AWIPS2 Transition• Computing Capability

– Operations– Research– R2O

• Unified Modeling System• Open Weather and Climate• Mission Creep

Facility/Support• R2O Process• Admin Overload• Deputy

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• On schedule• No operational

products missed• No boxes lost• WWB closeout

completed on schedule

• Impacts better than expected

Building Move Complete

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FY12 Highlights

14 April 2012 Great Plains Outbreak

• 60 Tornadoes (1 EF4, 3 EF3 & 3 EF2)• Outlook first issued 7 days in advance; Moderate Risk 3 days in

advance; High Risk 2 days in advance (only 2nd time)• FEMA/State/local emergency managers engaged starting 3 days

before the event• NWS average warning lead time (Tornadoes) : 13 minutes• 6 Fatalities in Woodward, OK near midnight

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14 April Great Plains Outbreak• “Anyone tuned into a television or weather

service last week would have been hard pressed to miss the news that dangerous storms were brewing in the Midwest. Clearly, these storms were meant to be taken seriously.” 

-- Kansas City Star• “The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla.,

which specializes in tornado forecasting, took the unusual step of issuing a stern warning about the oncoming storms more than 24 hours in advance.” 

-- Christian Science Monitor• “I really think people took the warnings and

they took them very seriously. We had more notice on this system than you normally do. You normally are looking at a couple of hours’ notice. Well, this one had almost two days’ notice.” 

-- Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback

• “We'd been on the lookout for it for three days. We were as ready as we could have been.” 

-- Larry Hill, Thurman , IA (AP) resident whose home was destroyed

Global Model Track Guidancefor TS/Hurricane Isaac

Sequence of 5-day 00 and 12 UTC cycle Isaac forecasts 23 August 2012 to 30 August 2012

NCEP GFS ECMWF

NCEP FY13 AOP 6-8 Sept 2012

Global Model Track Guidancefor TS/Hurricane Isaac

NCEP GFS ECMWF

Sequence of 5-day 00 and 12 UTC cycle Isaac forecasts 26 August 2012 to 29 August 2012

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Hurricane Isaac Precipitation Forecast

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Air Quality

WRF NMM/ARWWorkstation WRF

WRF: ARW, NMM, NMMBGFS, Canadian Global Model

Regional NAMWRF NMMB

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Hurricane GFDLHWRF

GlobalForecastSystem

Dispersion

ARL/HYSPLIT

Forecast

Severe Weather

Rapid Refreshfor Aviation

Climate ForecastSystem

Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast

NOAA’s Model Production Suite

GFS MOM4NOAH Sea Ice

NOAH Land Surface Model

Coupled

Global DataAssimilation

OceansHYCOM

WaveWatch III

NAM/CMAQ

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Regi

onal

DA

Satellites + Radar99.9%

~2B Obs/Day

NOS – OFS• Great Lakes• Northern

Gulf of Mex• Columbia R.

Bays• Chesapeake• Tampa • Delaware

SpaceWeather

ENLIL

Regi

onal

DA

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FY12 Model Implementations• NMMB – Oct 18, 2011• Global Real-Time Ocean Forecast System –

October 25, 2011• NCEP/FNMOC Combined Wave Ensembles

(NFCENS) – November 1, 2011• Enlil – December 13, 2011• GEFS – February 14, 2012• SREF Upgrade – August 21, 2012• GSI Hybrid EnKF-3DVAR Upgrade –

May 22, 2012 New Models• Enlil• Global RTOFS/HYCOM

• NOS Bay Models• Sea Nettles

• NMMB (introduction of NOAA Environmental Modeling Framework, first operational application of ESMF, allows for concurrent multi-scale model execution) – Oct 18, 2011

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Recent Upgrades

5 Hi-res Nested Domains

• NCEP/FNMOC Combined Wave Ensembles (NFCENS) – Nov 1, 2011

• Combines outputs from a total of 41 wave ensemble members: one control run and 20 members from the NCEP system, and 20 additional members from FNMOC.

• Both orgs use the same wave model (WAVEWATCH III) but differences between the two wave forecasting systems provide benefits when combined, such as with improved mean ensemble products and improved ensemble statistical information.

• The new combined products include combined significant wave height outputs, mean significant wave height, and significant wave height spread.

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Recent Upgrades

• GEFS – February 14, 2012– Latest GFS, improved ensemble initialization– Resolution upgrade

• Horizontal: T190(~70km) T254 (~50km) out to 8 days• Vertical: 28 to 42 levels out to 16 days

Recent Upgrades

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North America Below Normal Probabilities North America Above Normal Probabilities

NAEFS Precipitation Forecasts - 6-10 Forecast Made 10/03/2012

Forecast Valid from 10/09/2012 to 10/13/2012

Forecast Valid from 10/09/2012 to 10/13/2012

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Recent Upgrades

• SREF Upgrade – August 21, 2012– eliminate Eta and RSM models and add new NEMS-based

NMMB model– Model upgrade (two existing WRF cores from v2.2 to version 3.3)– Resolution increase (from 32km to 16km)– More diversity for initial conditions and physics

Current SREF Mean Upgraded SREF Mean

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Data Assimilation Upgrade

• GSI Hybrid EnKF-3DVAR Upgrade – May 22, 2012– EnKF hybrid system– New version of Forecast model– Use of NPP Advanced Microwave

Technology Sensor (ATMS) – 7 months after launch

– Use of GPSRO bending angles (replace refractivity)

Current SREF Mean

EnKF Hybrid GDAS Package Parallel -

Northern Hemisphere

GFS operational 48 h forecast verifying 5/13/12 1200 UTC

GFS hybrid 48 h forecast verifying 5/13/12 1200 UTC

ECMWF 48 h forecast verifying 5/13/12 1200

UTCVerifying analysis 5/13/12 1200 UTC

– Use of GOES-13 and GOES-15 sounder data

– Improved Quality Control of NASA AIRS data

– Improved observation errors for NOAA SBUV (Ozone) data

– Fewer Dropouts– Improved tropical cyclone forecasts

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Newest Members of the Model Production Suite

• First global eddy-resolving ocean forecast system at NOAA/NCEP.• Based on a 1/12 degree HYCOM (HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model) –

Community model developed under National Oceanographic Partnership Program (NOPP) – led by Navy/FSU– “saved 10 years of development time

if done internally”• Attributes

– 1/12th degree horizontal resolution– Run once per day out six days– 32 vertical hybrid layers

• Earth System Modeling Framework compatible

• Provide boundary conditions for coastal models

• Implemented operationally on October 25, 2011

• Output: global sea surface height and three dimensional fields of temperature, salinity, density and velocity

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Global Real-Time Ocean Forecast System

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Space Weather: Enlil• First large-scale, physics-based space weather prediction model to be put

into operations • Jointly developed by scientists with NOAA, NASA, the Air Force

Research Laboratory, the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado at Boulder, Boston University, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and George Mason University.

• Provide 1-4 day advance warning of geomagnetic storms

• Provides perspective on structures 1-27 days in advance

• Reduces error in geomagnetic storm onset time from ±12 hrs to ±6 hrs

Enlil Forecast from September 28, 2012 valid October 1, 2012Missed Earth impact time by only 47 minutes

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NOS – Community Bay Models Running on NCEP’s Operational Computers

• Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast System

• Columbia River Estuary Operational Forecast System

• Delaware Bay Operational Forecast System

• Northern Gulf of Mexico Operational Forecast System

• Tampa Bay Operational Forecast System

An Example of Operational Ecological Forecasting (Sea Nettles)

• Global Ocean Forecasts

• Ecological Forecasts– Forecasting Sea Nettles

• Bay Forecasts

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FY13: A Look Ahead

• Selection of Milestones for Individual Centers Provided in Appendix

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Strategic Outlook/Priorities for FY13

• New computer (transition to new system in FY13)– Longer term strategic upgrades (GPU?)

• Model implementation plan– Will apply to all implementations on new

computer• AWIPS II – service centers linking to WFOs

– NAWIPS conversion– Thin client approach to serve

UNIDATA/University community

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Implementation Efficiency– Global Multi-grid Wave version 2.1.5

Initial Testing Start Date May 6, 2011Number of Science Changes after Start Date 1Number of IT Changes after Start Date 4Receipt Date of Last Change November 29, 2011NCO Parallel Start Date October 11, 2011Number of days from Initial Testing Start Date to Implementation Date 228

Average number of days from Initial Testing Start Date to Implementation Date 228

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Implementation Efficiency– Global Multi-grid Wave version 3.0.0

Initial Testing Start Date (after RFC submission) March 16, 2012

Number of Science Changes after Start Date 0Number of IT Changes after Start Date 2Receipt Date of Last Change March 22, 2012NCO Parallel Start Date March 27, 2012Number of days from Initial Testing Start Date to Implementation Date 53

Average number of days from Initial Testing Start Date to Implementation Date 140.5

Implementation is planned for May 8, 2012.

AWIPS II Status

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• AWIPS I remains in only two NCEP Centers, AWC and NHC

• Grid performance in National Center Perspective has exceeded NAWIPS

• Forecaster Initial Testing occurring this week on NCEP Testbed – AWC, NHC, SPC

• Unidata / Universities do not have the resources to support the AWIPS II hardware configuration

• NCO will be testing the Thin Client to potentially serve as a solution for UNIDATA and Universities use of NAWIPS/AWIPS II

• Focus for FY13:• Opening the dataflow for the National Center Perspective data to all NCEP

AWIPS II systems• Testing Thin Client functionality for COOP and R2O purposes • Fixing Discrepancy Reports• Local Center system configuration • Planning for entrance into FOTE

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Challenges

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Challenges• FY13 Budget• FY14 Budget

• Sustaining the strategic initiatives/priorities – insuring a viable O2R!

• Addressing the Academy recommendations – “second to none”

• • •

and related uncertainties

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Summary• Remain committed to respond to all

recommendations• Look forward to working with UCACN – help

us to address the strategic opportunities (next generation model approaches, collaborative forecasting, increasing use of ensembles for impact-based forecasts, enabling prediction across other disciplines, …)

• Highest priority for FY13 obtain/sustain increased operational computer capacity; insure transition to new IBM iDataPlex is on schedule

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Appendix

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FY13 Milestones• NCO/EMC

– Complete Transition to the New Operational Supercomputer (WCOSS) – Q4

• NCO– Lead NCEP’s Migration to AWIPS2 – Q4

• EMC– Support development of NOAA Ecological

Modeling Plan with NOS – Q4– Develop experimental capability to run

Nearshore Wave Prediction System – Q3

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FY13 Milestones• HPC

– Begin generating full suite of medium-range products twice per day for the CONUS – Q2

– Begin issuing quantitative precipitation forecasts year round for days 6 and 7 at six-hour forecast intervals – Q2

• OPC– Enable ecological forecasting demonstration: Transition the

NOS pathogen prediction (V.Vulnificus) model to OPC production suite – Q2

– Produce experimental gridded (5km) offshore wind and wave forecasts for NDFD – Q4

– Produce an experimental graphic probabilistic storm track product – Q2

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FY13 Milestones• CPC

– Develop CPC Strategic Plan with stakeholder community – Q1-Q4 – Detail one CPC FTE to NOAA Policy Office to provide advice on

extremes of climate and weather – Q1-Q2– Implement experimental daily global surface temperature analysis –

Q4– Develop Plan for Phase I of an NMME-driven Global Drought

Information System – Q4• AWC

– Extend Collaborative Convective Forecast Product to an eight hour forecast per request of FAA – Q2

– Conduct the inaugural AWT Winter Experiment focused on the impact to traffic flow management by precipitation type, frozen precipitation accumulation, icing, turbulence, ceilings, and low visibility – Q2

– Sustain FAA Command Center Presence – Q1-Q4

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FY13 Milestones• SPC

– Work with OCWWS, NWS Partners and the social science community to improve the communication of severe weather risk and potential impacts within public SPC Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Watches (SEL) – Q4

– Add societal impact information to SPC website for severe weather forecasts. This new information will exploit population characteristics within forecast risk areas to more effectively convey the potential forecast implications to customers and partners – Q3

– Create experimental full convective day probabilistic SPC Thunderstorm Outlooks as part of a broader experiment to increase efficiencies in these forecasts through close integration of forecaster and ensemble numerical weather prediction - Q4

• NHC– Begin experimental public 5-day tropical cyclone genesis forecasts – Q4– Produce Experimental Day 6 and 7 Hurricane Forecasts – Q3– Develop NOAA Wavewatch III applications using TAFB-generated wind

grids in collaboration with EMC – Q3

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FY13 Milestones• SWPC

– Complete and close out all remaining SWPC C&A POAMs – Q1

– Disseminate new Space Weather Prediction Center plain language forecast and discussion products - Q1

– Transition Ovation Auroral model to SWPC operations – Q4

– Transition North American TEC product to SWPC operations – Q4

– Complete the development and integration of a NEMS version of the Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) – Q4

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NEAR TERM (1 yr)RECOMMENATION ACTIVITIES DATE STATUS NOTES

WORLD CLASS MODEL DEVELOPMENT

Move to NCWCP OCT 2012 Completed Working through minor modifications and warranty work, facilities management….

AWIPS2 Transition FY13Q2MAR 2013

FY13Q2 Some risk to schedule due to NAWIPS to AWIPS II transition

COMPUTING CAPABILITY

Central Computer System (CCS) Transition and Acquisition (Bridge/New Contract)

FY14Q1OCT 2013

On Track- Bridge contract

in place and funded

- 2 yr of 5 yr task order 002 funded

System Capability Phase I at 2.16 times current and Capacity 2.42 times current

MEDIUM TERM (1-3 yr)TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER

Rigorous Technology Transfer Framework

FY15 - Model implementation process updated and functioning

- Current process at NCEP is most mature for NOAA. A coordinative effort will be required here from many NOAA LOs.

ADMINISTRATIVE WORKLOAD

Administrative Workload at OD

FY15 - Fiscal climate unlikely to allow for DD position

Examine at a minimum the addition of administrative support position at OD to manage the workload

LONGER TERM (3-5 yr)WORLD CLASS MODEL DEVELOPMENT

More Unified Modeling System

FY17 - Major theme to map out at Oct 2012 meeting

- Will better facilitate ESPC

Open Weather and Climate Service (NOAA and Resource Issue)

FY16+ - Major gaps and shortfalls to overcome

- Larger NOAA issue with potentially large resource implications. NOMADS and UNIDATA are NCEP’s primary means.

Funding Ratio and Mission Creep (External vs Internal)

FY16+ - We’re seeing reductions especially in soft funds which are already impacting both ratio and workforce

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