Setting the scene: Migration trends and SESSION I Setting the scene: Migration trends and impacts...
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SESSION I
Setting the scene: Migration trends and impacts
Venue IFAD, Rome
30 November – 2 December 2016
Interregional workshop
Collecting and using migration-related data for development: Cooperation and exchange in the European-African corridor
Organizer
UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs
153 173 222 244
375
578
469
Global number of international migrants likely to increase
International migrant stock, 1990-2050 (millions)
1990 2000 2010
2.9% 2.8%
3.2%
Proportion of international migrants in total population
2015
3.3%
2050
1990-2000 growth rate
2000-2010 growth rate
2010-2015 growth rate
Source: UN/DESA, Population Division (2015). Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2015 revision
Asia and Europe host the largest numbers of migrants worldwide
Number of international migrants by major area
Middle income
Nearly two thirds of all international migrants worldwide live in Europe or Asia
5
7
15
40
49
56
8
9
21
54
75
76
0 20 40 60 80
Oceania
Latin America and the Caribbean
Africa
Northern America
Asia
Europe
Number of migrants (millions)
2015
2000
Between 2000 and 2015, Asia added more international migrants than any other major area
Nearly half of all international migrants worldwide were born in Asia
Number of international migrants by major area of origin
1
3
23
26
52
68
2
4
34
37
62
104
0 50 100 150
Oceania
Northern America
Africa
Latin America and the…
Europe
Asia
Number of migrants (millions)
2015
2000
Between 2000 and 2015, the size of the migrant stock from Asia grew faster than from all other major areas
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74
P er
c en
ta g
e
Total population
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74
P er
ce n
ta g
e
International migrants
58% 72%
Most migrants worldwide are of working age Total population and international migrants by age, 2015
Who is an international migrant? (UNDESA, 1998. Recommendation on statistics of international migration)
Any person who changes her/his country
of residence • Part of this definition:
A move Minimum duration of stay
• Not part of this definition:
Reason (work, family, study, asylum, etc.) Legal status
The contribution of migration to population change – Africa and Europe compared
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1950- 1960
1960- 1970
1970- 1980
1980- 1990
1990- 2000
2000- 2010
2010- 2020
2020- 2030
2030- 2040
2040- 2050
m ill
io ns
-10
40
90
140
190
240
290
340
390
440
490
1950- 1960
1960- 1970
1970- 1980
1980- 1990
1990- 2000
2000- 2010
2010- 2020
2020- 2030
2030- 2040
2040- 2050
m ill
io ns
Total net population change
Immigration-emigration Births-deaths
Europe Slowing population
decline (but not halting)
Africa Reducing
population growth (but little impact)
Demography: a powerful driver of migration
Changes in working age population by major area, 2015 – 2050
106%
-12% -20%
-8%
5%
29%
138%
10%
-21%
17% 9%
37%
Africa Asia Europe Latin America and
the Caribbean
Northern America
Oceania
20-29
20-59
Source: UN, DESA, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision
Trends in global displacement
Source: UNHCR Statistical Yearbook 2014, Annex Table 26. Indicators of host country capacity and contributions, end-2014
Uneven responsibility sharing for refugees Ratio of refugee population to gross domestic product per capita (PPPs)
Under 0.1 Between 0.1 and 1 Between 1 and 15 More than 15
Migration – some key benefits
Remittances In 2014, migrants from developing countries sent home an
estimated US $436 billion in remittances, far exceeding ODA Invested in human capital (health, education, sanitation,
housing, infrastructure, etc.)
Diaspora contributions to countries of origin Transfer of knowledge and skills, trade, FDI, etc. “Brain gain”
Contribution to destination countries Filling labour market shortages Entrepreneurship, job creation Reducing old-age dependency ratios
Migration – some key challenges
Some economic costs of migration Emigration of skilled persons (“brain drain”) Lack of portability of skills and diplomas (“brain waste”) High recruitment fees High costs of transferring remittances
Some social costs of migration Migrant fatalities at borders Violations of human rights Trafficking in persons and smuggling of migrants Children left behind in the country of origin Etc.
Ratification of relevant instruments indicates key migration challenges
Chart1
1950 1950 1950 1950 1950 1950 1950
1951 1951 1951 1951 1951 1951 1951
1952 1952 1952 1952 1952 1952 1952
1953 1953 1953 1953 1953 1953 1953
1954 1954 1954 1954 1954 1954 1954
1955 1955 1955 1955 1955 1955 1955
1956 1956 1956 1956 1956 1956 1956
1957 1957 1957 1957 1957 1957 1957
1958 1958 1958 1958 1958 1958 1958
1959 1959 1959 1959 1959 1959 1959
1960 1960 1960 1960 1960 1960 1960
1961 1961 1961 1961 1961 1961 1961
1962 1962 1962 1962 1962 1962 1962
1963 1963 1963 1963 1963 1963 1963
1964 1964 1964 1964 1964 1964 1964
1965 1965 1965 1965 1965 1965 1965
1966 1966 1966 1966 1966 1966 1966
1967 1967 1967 1967 1967 1967 1967
1968 1968 1968 1968 1968 1968 1968
1969 1969 1969 1969 1969 1969 1969
1970 1970 1970 1970 1970 1970 1970
1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971
1972 1972 1972 1972 1972 1972 1972
1973 1973 1973 1973 1973 1973 1973
1974 1974 1974 1974 1974 1974 1974
1975 1975 1975 1975 1975 1975 1975
1976 1976 1976 1976 1976 1976 1976
1977 1977 1977 1977 1977 1977 1977
1978 1978 1978 1978 1978 1978 1978
1979 1979 1979 1979 1979 1979 1979
1980 1980 1980 1980 1980 1980 1980
1981 1981 1981 1981 1981 1981 1981
1982 1982 1982 1982 1982 1982 1982
1983 1983 1983 1983 1983 1983 1983
1984 1984 1984 1984 1984 1984 1984
1985 1985 1985 1985 1985 1985 1985
1986 1986 1986 1986 1986 1986 1986
1987 1987 1987 1987 1987 1987 1987
1988 1988 1988 1988 1988 1988 1988
1989 1989 1989 1989 1989 1989 1989
1990 1990 1990 1990 1990 1990 1990
1991 1991 1991 1991 1991 1991 1991
1992 1992 1992 1992 1992 1992 1992
1993 1993 1993 1993 1993 1993 1993
1994 1994 1994 1994 1994 1994 1994
1995 1995 1995 1995 1995 1995 1995
1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996
1997 1997 1997 1997 1997 1997 1997
1998 1998 1998 1998 1998 1998 1998
1999 1999 1999 1999 1999 1999 1999
2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000
2001 2001 2001 2001 2001 2001 2001
2002 2002 2002 2002 2002 2002 2002
2003 2003 2003 2003 2003 2003 2003
2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004
2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011
Refugee Convention 1951
Refugee Protocol 1967
Migrant Worker Convention 1990
ILO Convention Migration for Employment 1949
ILO Convention Migrant Workers 1975
Human Trafficking Protocol 2000
Migrant Smuggling Protocol 2000
1
2
1
6
