Setting the scene: Migration trends and SESSION I Setting the scene: Migration trends and impacts...

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  • SESSION I

    Setting the scene: Migration trends and impacts

    Venue IFAD, Rome

    30 November – 2 December 2016

    Interregional workshop

    Collecting and using migration-related data for development: Cooperation and exchange in the European-African corridor

    Organizer

    UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs

  • 153 173 222 244

    375

    578

    469

    Global number of international migrants likely to increase

    International migrant stock, 1990-2050 (millions)

    1990 2000 2010

    2.9% 2.8%

    3.2%

    Proportion of international migrants in total population

    2015

    3.3%

    2050

    1990-2000 growth rate

    2000-2010 growth rate

    2010-2015 growth rate

    Source: UN/DESA, Population Division (2015). Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2015 revision

  • Asia and Europe host the largest numbers of migrants worldwide

    Number of international migrants by major area

    Middle income

    Nearly two thirds of all international migrants worldwide live in Europe or Asia

    5

    7

    15

    40

    49

    56

    8

    9

    21

    54

    75

    76

    0 20 40 60 80

    Oceania

    Latin America and the Caribbean

    Africa

    Northern America

    Asia

    Europe

    Number of migrants (millions)

    2015

    2000

    Between 2000 and 2015, Asia added more international migrants than any other major area

  • Nearly half of all international migrants worldwide were born in Asia

    Number of international migrants by major area of origin

    1

    3

    23

    26

    52

    68

    2

    4

    34

    37

    62

    104

    0 50 100 150

    Oceania

    Northern America

    Africa

    Latin America and the…

    Europe

    Asia

    Number of migrants (millions)

    2015

    2000

    Between 2000 and 2015, the size of the migrant stock from Asia grew faster than from all other major areas

  • 0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74

    P er

    c en

    ta g

    e

    Total population

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74

    P er

    ce n

    ta g

    e

    International migrants

    58% 72%

    Most migrants worldwide are of working age Total population and international migrants by age, 2015

  • Who is an international migrant? (UNDESA, 1998. Recommendation on statistics of international migration)

     Any person who changes her/his country

    of residence • Part of this definition:

     A move  Minimum duration of stay

    • Not part of this definition:

     Reason (work, family, study, asylum, etc.)  Legal status

  • The contribution of migration to population change – Africa and Europe compared

    -30

    -20

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    1950- 1960

    1960- 1970

    1970- 1980

    1980- 1990

    1990- 2000

    2000- 2010

    2010- 2020

    2020- 2030

    2030- 2040

    2040- 2050

    m ill

    io ns

    -10

    40

    90

    140

    190

    240

    290

    340

    390

    440

    490

    1950- 1960

    1960- 1970

    1970- 1980

    1980- 1990

    1990- 2000

    2000- 2010

    2010- 2020

    2020- 2030

    2030- 2040

    2040- 2050

    m ill

    io ns

    Total net population change

    Immigration-emigration Births-deaths

    Europe Slowing population

    decline (but not halting)

    Africa Reducing

    population growth (but little impact)

  • Demography: a powerful driver of migration

    Changes in working age population by major area, 2015 – 2050

    106%

    -12% -20%

    -8%

    5%

    29%

    138%

    10%

    -21%

    17% 9%

    37%

    Africa Asia Europe Latin America and

    the Caribbean

    Northern America

    Oceania

    20-29

    20-59

    Source: UN, DESA, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision

  • Trends in global displacement

  • Source: UNHCR Statistical Yearbook 2014, Annex Table 26. Indicators of host country capacity and contributions, end-2014

    Uneven responsibility sharing for refugees Ratio of refugee population to gross domestic product per capita (PPPs)

    Under 0.1 Between 0.1 and 1 Between 1 and 15 More than 15

  • Migration – some key benefits

     Remittances  In 2014, migrants from developing countries sent home an

    estimated US $436 billion in remittances, far exceeding ODA  Invested in human capital (health, education, sanitation,

    housing, infrastructure, etc.)

     Diaspora contributions to countries of origin  Transfer of knowledge and skills, trade, FDI, etc.  “Brain gain”

     Contribution to destination countries  Filling labour market shortages  Entrepreneurship, job creation  Reducing old-age dependency ratios

  • Migration – some key challenges

     Some economic costs of migration Emigration of skilled persons (“brain drain”) Lack of portability of skills and diplomas (“brain waste”) High recruitment fees High costs of transferring remittances

     Some social costs of migration Migrant fatalities at borders Violations of human rights Trafficking in persons and smuggling of migrants Children left behind in the country of origin Etc.

  • Ratification of relevant instruments indicates key migration challenges

    Chart1

    1950 1950 1950 1950 1950 1950 1950

    1951 1951 1951 1951 1951 1951 1951

    1952 1952 1952 1952 1952 1952 1952

    1953 1953 1953 1953 1953 1953 1953

    1954 1954 1954 1954 1954 1954 1954

    1955 1955 1955 1955 1955 1955 1955

    1956 1956 1956 1956 1956 1956 1956

    1957 1957 1957 1957 1957 1957 1957

    1958 1958 1958 1958 1958 1958 1958

    1959 1959 1959 1959 1959 1959 1959

    1960 1960 1960 1960 1960 1960 1960

    1961 1961 1961 1961 1961 1961 1961

    1962 1962 1962 1962 1962 1962 1962

    1963 1963 1963 1963 1963 1963 1963

    1964 1964 1964 1964 1964 1964 1964

    1965 1965 1965 1965 1965 1965 1965

    1966 1966 1966 1966 1966 1966 1966

    1967 1967 1967 1967 1967 1967 1967

    1968 1968 1968 1968 1968 1968 1968

    1969 1969 1969 1969 1969 1969 1969

    1970 1970 1970 1970 1970 1970 1970

    1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971

    1972 1972 1972 1972 1972 1972 1972

    1973 1973 1973 1973 1973 1973 1973

    1974 1974 1974 1974 1974 1974 1974

    1975 1975 1975 1975 1975 1975 1975

    1976 1976 1976 1976 1976 1976 1976

    1977 1977 1977 1977 1977 1977 1977

    1978 1978 1978 1978 1978 1978 1978

    1979 1979 1979 1979 1979 1979 1979

    1980 1980 1980 1980 1980 1980 1980

    1981 1981 1981 1981 1981 1981 1981

    1982 1982 1982 1982 1982 1982 1982

    1983 1983 1983 1983 1983 1983 1983

    1984 1984 1984 1984 1984 1984 1984

    1985 1985 1985 1985 1985 1985 1985

    1986 1986 1986 1986 1986 1986 1986

    1987 1987 1987 1987 1987 1987 1987

    1988 1988 1988 1988 1988 1988 1988

    1989 1989 1989 1989 1989 1989 1989

    1990 1990 1990 1990 1990 1990 1990

    1991 1991 1991 1991 1991 1991 1991

    1992 1992 1992 1992 1992 1992 1992

    1993 1993 1993 1993 1993 1993 1993

    1994 1994 1994 1994 1994 1994 1994

    1995 1995 1995 1995 1995 1995 1995

    1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996

    1997 1997 1997 1997 1997 1997 1997

    1998 1998 1998 1998 1998 1998 1998

    1999 1999 1999 1999 1999 1999 1999

    2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000

    2001 2001 2001 2001 2001 2001 2001

    2002 2002 2002 2002 2002 2002 2002

    2003 2003 2003 2003 2003 2003 2003

    2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004

    2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005

    2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006

    2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007

    2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008

    2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009

    2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010

    2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011

    Refugee Convention 1951

    Refugee Protocol 1967

    Migrant Worker Convention 1990

    ILO Convention Migration for Employment 1949

    ILO Convention Migrant Workers 1975

    Human Trafficking Protocol 2000

    Migrant Smuggling Protocol 2000

    1

    2

    1

    6