Setting the Scene for Change

Setting the Scene for ChangeRichard Murray

Office of the Chief Economic Adviser

Synchronised Global Downturn

Scale of the Recession in Scotland

Fiscal Impact of RecessionGovernment borrowingExpenditureRevenue

Sharp Rise in UK Borrowing

Type of Borrowing

UK Governments Fiscal Mandate

Chart2

-0.6-0.6

-3.1-2.5

-5.4-4.8

-4.7-4.6

-3.3-3.4

-1.8-2.5

-0.5-1.8

0.5-1.3

0.9-0.47

OBR - November 2010 Forecasts

March 2010 Budget

% of GDP

UK Cyclically Adjusted Current Budget Balance (% of GDP)

Sheet1


OBR - November 2010 ForecastsMarch 2010 Budget

2007/08-0.6-0.6

2008/09-3.1-2.5

2009/10-5.4-4.8

2010/11-4.7-4.6

2011/12-3.3-3.4

2012/13-1.8-2.5

2013/14-0.5-1.8

2014/150.5-1.3

2015/160.9-0.5

Annual Real Growth in Scottish Government DEL Expenditure

2000/015.1%

2001/029.1%

2002/035.2%

2003/046.5%

2004/054.9%

2005/066.7%

2006/075.8%

2007/082.7%

2008/092.4%

2009/103.3%

2010/11-2.3%

2011/12-6.3%

2012/13-1.0%

2013/14-2.6%

2014/15-1.8%

Sheet1

% Real Annual Change

Annual Real Growth in Scottish Government DEL Expenditure

Sheet2

6 years of real decline

OBR - November 2010 Forecasts

March 2010 Budget

% of GDP


Sheet3

Total Scottish Government BudgetApproximately half the cuts to occur next year

Chart3

0.032999408

-0.023336816

-0.0628711476

-0.0100480716

-0.0258239423

-0.0181552349

Real % Change

Real Growth in the Scottish DEL Budget 2010/11 Prices

Sheet1

Money GDPDEL

1998/99890.27217920.1%

1999/00944.6318920.0%

2000/01989.55120520.7%

2001/021031.45722421.7%

2002/031092.06623921.9%

2003/041157.426522.9%

2004/051214.701283.37823.3%

2005/061270.835303.08223.8%

2006/071346.209319.64423.7%

2007/081418.246343.13224.2%

2008/091434350.424.4%

2009/10140837826.8%

2010/11147438025.8%25.8%UK Departmental Spending as % of GDP

2011/121539370.224.1%

2012/131620366.722.6%

2013/141710363.821.3%

2014/15180336220.1%

2015/161902366.519.3%

Sheet1

0.20103518921998/99

0.20003916881999/00

0.2074708632000/01

0.21684665482001/02

0.21918272342002/03

0.22916709872003/04

0.23329033242004/05

0.23849044132005/06

0.23744010032006/07

0.24194110192007/08

0.24435146442008/09

0.26846590912009/10

0.25780189960.2578018996

2011/120.240545809

2012/130.2263580247

2013/140.212748538

2014/150.2007764836

2015/160.1926919033

% of GDP

UK Departmental Spending as % of GDP

Sheet2

Scottish Government DEL Budget (Cash)Scottish Government DEL Budget (Real 10/11 Prices)Scottish Government DEL Budget (Cash)Scottish Government DEL Budget (Real 10/11 Prices)Real Growth

TotalCurrentCapitalTotalCurrentCapitalTotalCurrentCapitalTotalCurrentCapitalTotalCurrentCapital

2008/0927,62524,7583,26228,96625,9603,4202008/092825329263000

2009/1029,07925,1553,92429,92225,8844,0382009/1029254302643.3%-0.3%18.1%

2010/1129,22425,9313,29329,22425,9313,2932010/112926329263-2.3%0.2%-18.4%

2011/1227,90725,4012,50627,38724,9272,4592011/122825327252-6.3%-3.9%-25.3%

2012/1328,26225,7872,47527,11124,7372,3742012/132826227252-1.0%-0.8%-3.5%

2013/1428,24826,0112,23726,41124,3202,0922013/142826226242-2.6%-1.7%-11.9%

2014/1528,48426,1662,31825,93223,8222,1102014/152826226242-1.8%-2.0%0.9%

-2.5%0.9%-29.6%-11.3%-8.1%-35.9%

Scottish Government Capital DEL Forecasts ( Billions) 2010/11 Prices

Scottish Government Resource DEL Forecasts ( Billions) 2010/11 Prices

Total Scottish Government DEL Forecasts ( Billions) 2010/11 Prices

Sheet2

Billions (10/11 Prices)

Total Scottish Government DEL ( Billions) 10/11 Prices


Scottish Government Capital DEL ( Billions) 2010/11 Prices


Scottish Government Resource DEL ( Billions) 2010/11 Prices

Real % Change

Real Growth in the Scottish DEL Budget 2010/11 Prices

Real % Change

Real Growth in the Scottish Capital DEL Budget

MBD0017E403.xls

Chart1

3.262

3.924

3.319

2.6605490251

2.6692322547

2.5205226667

2.6106687216

Billions

Scottish Government Capital DEL Forecasts ( Billions)

Assumptions

3.2623.9243.3192.66054902512.66923225472.52052266672.6106687216

Assumptions

THIS IS THE BASELINE MODEL AND IS CONSISTANT WITH THE CABINET PAPER

- The budgets reported for 2009/10 and 2010/11 remove non cash items such as the cost of capital- The 100 million over allocation is removed from the reported budget for 2010/11

- UK current and capital health spending is frozen in real terms for the duration of the next spending review- Overseas Aid spending is increased until it reaches 0.7% of GNI- An AME margin is introduced into the current DEL figures. This is assumed to reach 5 billion by 2014/15 and then remain frozen in cash terms- All other departments receive the same nominal percentage reduction and Scotland gets the resulting consequentials

- Trend growth after 2015/16 is assumed to be 2.1%

SG Cost of Capital

HMT: Cost of Capital removed under Clear Line of Sight

2003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-09

OutturnOutturnOutturnOutturnOutturnOutturn

000s248,126388,441374,615398,224447,330449,814

Millions248388375398447450

SG Total DEL Budget19,75521,42123,23725,30426,77328,075

SG Total Del Budget less cost of capital19,50721,03322,86224,90626,32627,625

SG Resource DEL Budget18,33319,72121,38322,17723,44324,758

SG Resource Del Budget less cost of capital18,08519,33321,00921,77922,99624,308

Summary Charts

Chart A2: Illustrative Public Finance Projections

Chart XX: UK AME and DEL 2014/15

Chart A3: UK DEL Illustrative Projections

Chart A4: Real Annual Growth in Scottish DEL

Scottish Government DEL Expenditure

Chart XX: Scottish Government DEL Budget

Summary Charts

343.3

35.32.9

362.3

36.52.4

446.7015341702

53.510.9872159091

61.910.1085481682

67.27.5373619233

69.85.4938271605

70.33.5087719298

69.42.05213533

67.41.0515247108

67.10411001781.1185068349

65.11452236641.1185068349

Net Debt (Right Hand Scale)

Net Borrowing (Left Hand Scale)

% of GDP

% of GDP

Section 1 Charts

0.0224342150.0586527216

0.0572517861-0.0230408112

0.0210049464-0.0439543412

0.0214104718-0.0317246813

0.0134301427-0.0330490955

0.0212940906-0.0311078612

UK Annually Managed Expenditure

UK Departmental Expenditure Limits


Section 2 Charts

367.4122704

388.962

380

363.2973503435

351.7718576758

340.146115963

329.5648977835

324.8896777011

333.5271376863

342.2982735498

351.2071468096

360.2578712989

369.454615132

UK DEL


Section 3&4 Charts

0.0512292931

0.09063975

0.0521064589

0.0789776911

0.0550191347

0.0649021854

0.0576637857

0.0282909705

0.0229081631

0.0164488258

-0.0227018379



UK - Nominal Change in DEL (B)

26461.168764865

27987.0199297491

28778.7998841584

29438.069325

29922.291

29243

27511.5369355862

27052.6686822463

26268.6508884564

25584.5274818197


Millions (2010/11 Prices)

Consequentials (B) (2)

UK Public Sector Revenue and Expenditureoe:usa_nlgqaoe:gbr_nlgqaoe:jpn_nlgaexcloe:euro_nlgqaoe:oecd_nlgqa

United States, Government net lending, as a percentage of GDPUnited Kingdom, Government net lending, as a percentage of GDPJapan, Government net lending, excl social sec, as a percentage of GDPEuro Zone, Government net lending, as a percentage of GDPOECD, Government net lending, as a percentage of GDP

United StatesUnited KingdomJapanEuro ZoneOECD Average

2005-3.258528094-3.2853344901-7.039186064-2.5566127774-2.749983268

2006-2.1768537401-2.6977775599-1.723163831-1.328423168-1.276472002

2007-2.8069315546-2.7158116267-2.363506523-0.6105119811-1.326323117

2008-6.4659477856-5.2562956906-2.340515084-1.9809348014-3.474103457

2009-11.2004899169-12.6261248033-6.557542941-6.1214108622-8.158256363

2010-10.6885188433-13.3037487144-7.103171692-6.7475010729-8.257418521

2011-9.4011304026-12.5064525342-8.408839932-6.2239081724-7.602119806

UK Public Sector Net Borrowing

Illustrative Public Finance Projections

Budget 2010 (% of GDP)2008/092009/102010/112011/122012/132013/142014/15

Structural BorrowingCyclically-adjusted PSNB5.88.47.35.34.13.12.5

Cyclical Borrowing0.93.43.83.22.72.11.5

% of Borrowing which is structural644%247%192%166%152%148%167%

PSNB6.711.811.18.56.85.24

Composition of Future Consolidation2010/112011/122012/132013/142014/152015/16

June 2010 Budget Announcements8.115243240

Policy Inherited from Previous UK Government0.826425773128

Tax Increases3.61824272929

Reductions in public spending5.22342638399

Consequentials (B) (2)

37.340.5

38.341.2

38.640.9

38.741.1

37.243.9191073919

36.647.5355113636

37.247.2727272727

Current Receipts

Total Managed Expenditure

% of GDP

SG DEL Budget (B)

3.3

2.9

2.3

2.4

6.7015341702

10.9872159091

10.1085481682

7.5373619233

5.4938271605

3.5087719298

2.05213533

1.0515247108

UK Public Sector Net Borrowing

% of GDP

Real Growth-Chart (B)

3434

35.335.3

3636

36.536.5

4443.8

53.554.1

61.963.6

67.269.5

69.873

70.374.5

69.474.9

67.474

June UK Budget 2010

March UK Budget 2010

% of GDP

UK DEL Growth

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

Structural Borrowing

Cyclical Borrowing

% of GDP

SG DEL-Chart(B) (2)

00

00

00

00

00

0

Description :United States, Government net lending, as a percentage of GDPSeries :oe:usa_nlgqaSource :OECD EOLOriginal Frequency :YearTransform Frequency:YearStart Obs :30/12/2005End Obs :LASTMissing values :#N/ACurrency :Class :StockScale :0Use scale factor :FalseCalculation :Display :AutoShowDates :TrueRow :FalseLag :0

Description :United Kingdom, Government net lending, as a percentage of GDPSeries :oe:gbr_nlgqaSource :OECD EOLOriginal Frequency :YearTransform Frequency:YearStart Obs :30/12/2005End Obs :LASTMissing values :#N/ACurrency :Class :StockScale :0Use scale factor :FalseCalculation :Display :AutoShowDates :FalseRow :FalseLag :0

Description :Japan, Government net lending, excl social sec, as a percentage of GDPSeries :oe:jpn_nlgaexclSource :OECD EOLOriginal Frequency :YearTransform Frequency:YearStart Obs :30/12/2005End Obs :LASTMissing values :#N/ACurrency :Class :StockScale :0Use scale factor :FalseCalculation :Display :AutoShowDates :FalseRow :FalseLag :0

Description :OECD, Government net lending, as a percentage of GDPSeries :oe:oecd_nlgqaSource :OECD EOLOriginal Frequency :YearTransform Frequency:YearStart Obs :30/12/2005End Obs :LASTMissing values :#N/ACurrency :Class :StockScale :0Use scale factor :FalseCalculation :Display :AutoShowDates :FalseRow :FalseLag :0

Description :Euro Zone, Government net lending, as a percentage of GDPSeries :oe:euro_nlgqaSource :OECD EOLOriginal Frequency :YearTransform Frequency:YearStart Obs :30/12/2005End Obs :LASTMissing values :#N/ACurrency :Class :StockScale :0Use scale factor :FalseCalculation :Display :AutoShowDates :FalseRow :FalseLag :0

United States

United Kingdom

Japan

Euro Zone

OECD Average

% of GDP

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Policy Inherited from Previous UK Government

June 2010 Budget Announcements

Billions

SG DEL-Chart(B) (3)

00

00

00

00

00

00

Reductions in public spending

Tax Increases

Billions

SG DEL-Chart(B) (4)

-1.4-1.4

-0.9-0.9

-0.4-0.4

-0.6-0.6

-3.1-2.5

-5.3-4.8

-4.8-4.6

-3.2-3.4

-1.9-2.5

-0.7-1.8

0.3-1.3

0.8-0.47

June UK Budget 2010


% of GDP

Chart3

36.536.5

4443.8

53.554.1

61.963.6

67.269.5

69.873

70.374.5

69.474.9

67.474

67.104110017872

65.114522366470

June UK Budget 2010


% of GDP

2.42.4

6.70153417026.7

10.987215909111.8

10.108548168211.1

7.53736192338.5

5.49382716056.8

3.50877192985.2

2.052135334

1.05152471082.7

1.11850683491.6

1.11850683491.6

June 2010 UK Budget

March 2010 UK Budget

% of GDP

Chart XXXX - Estimated Real Growth in UK Aggregate Public Spending

Chart XXXX - Projected Path of UK Total Managed Expenditure

UK Total Managed Expenditure

Chart XXXX - Projected Path of UK DEL and AME

0.04290316320.0224342150.0586527216

0.01174703940.0572517861-0.0230408112

-0.01442061230.0210049464-0.0439543412

-0.00683814980.0214104718-0.0317246813

-0.01026202010.0134301427-0.0330490955

-0.00538642250.0212940906-0.0311078612

0.00011552490.0136329746-0.0141860378

TME

AME

DEL


660.3774198

688.7097

696.8

686.75171737

682.0556062381

675.0563378926

671.4201992137

671.4977649621

685.5992180263

699.9968016049

714.6967344386

729.7053658618

745.0291785449

760.6747912943

776.6489619115

792.9585901117

UK Total Managed Expenditure


0.04803001350.1452505489

-0.0052515288-0.1140322863

-0.0175002928-0.2126343657

-0.0273263183-0.0649836372

-0.0259121083-0.0893338847

-0.03627839650.0184478539

-0.01965844320.0265468022

UK Current DEL

UK Capital DEL


293.0700045367.4122704

299.6448388.962

316.8380

323.4543670265363.2973503435

330.3796776208351.7718576758

334.8167238218340.146115963

341.9463414572329.5648977835

346.608087261324.8896777011

352.0720803401333.5271376863

357.698528055342.2982735498

363.489587629351.2071468096

369.4474945629360.2578712989

375.5745634129369.454615132

381.873188606378.8016026883

388.3458452955388.303116616

394.9950902558397.9634998558

UK Annually Managed Expenditure

UK Departmental Expenditure Limits


-1.4

-0.9

-0.4

-0.6

-3.1

-5.3

-4.8

-3.2

-1.9

-0.7

0.3

0.8

14 years

Current Receipts

Total Managed Expenditure

% of GDP

2004/05

2004/05

2005/06

2005/06

2006/07

2006/07

2007/08

2007/08

2008/09

2008/09

2009/10

2009/10

2010/11

2010/11

2011/12

2011/12

2012/13

2012/13

2013/14

2013/14

2014/15

2014/15

2015/16

2015/16

2016/17

2016/17

2017/18

2017/18

2018/19

2018/19

2019/20

2019/20

2020/21

2020/21

37.3

40.5

38.3

41.2

38.6

40.9

38.7

41.1

37.2

43.9191073919

36.6

47.5355113636

37.2

47.2727272727

38

45.4710851202

38.4

43.8888888889

38.7

42.2222222222

38.8

40.9040488075

38.7

39.8264984227

38.7

39.8264984227

38.7

39.8264984227

38.7

39.8264984227

38.7

39.8264984227

38.7

39.8264984227

Cyclically Adjusted Surplus on Current Budget

Chart XXXX Annual Real Growth in the Scottish DEL Budget

(2000/01 2010/11)


Chart XX - Estimated Real Annual Growth in the Scottish Government DEL Budget

Chart XX - Estimated Scottish Government DEL Budget (2010/11 Prices)

June Budget 2010 Assumptions

March Budget 2010 Assumptions

0.0512292931

0.09063975

0.0521064589

0.0654253507

0.0490644018

0.0670845197

0.0580764721

0.0272768904

0.0236221979

0.032999408

-0.0227018379



0.0512292931

0.09063975

0.0521064589

0.0654253507

0.0490644018

0.0670845197

0.0580764721

0.0272768904

0.0236221979

0.032999408

-0.0227018379

-0.0592094882

-0.016679121

-0.0289811627

-0.02604334

-0.018486669



-0.0227018379-0.0164891846

-0.0592094882-0.0338127797

-0.016679121-0.0336475197

-0.0289811627-0.0324281413

-0.02604334-0.0174579598

-0.0184866690.0066105384




1999/00

2000/01

2001/02

2002/03

2003/04

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

18096.2271655709

19023.2840918905

20747.5498063068

21828.6311574074

23256.7770069178

24397.856859024

26034.5753691232

27546.5716597323

28297.9564765395

28966.416405486

29922.291

29243

27511.5369355862

27052.6686822463

26268.6508884564

25584.5274818197

25111.5547910384




29922.29129733.2775

2924329243

27511.536935586228254.2128828164

27052.668682246327303.5286969581

26268.650888456426418.1260100296

25584.527481819725956.9194290003

25111.554791038426128.50864278




2004/052005/062006/072007/082008/092009/102010/112011/122012/132013/142014/152015/162016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/232023/242024/252025/262026/272027/282028/29

GDP Deflators2.78%1.87%2.96%2.89%2.50%1.90%2.90%1.90%2.30%2.60%2.70%2.70%2.70%2.70%2.70%2.70%2.70%2.70%2.70%2.70%2.70%2.70%2.70%2.70%2.70%

Index90.492.08794.81197.55100.00101.90104.86106.85109.30112.15115.17118.28121.48124.76128.13131.59135.14138.79142.53146.38150.34154.39158.56162.84167.24

GDP Growth2.55%2.47%2.68%2.54%-1.50%-3.70%1.8%2.4%2.9%2.8%2.7%2.7%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%

Output Gap (% of GDP)-1.0-4.1-3.7-3.5-2.8-2.3-1.6-0.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Money GDP1,214.701,270.841,346.211,418.251,434.001,408.001,4741,5391,6201,7101,8031,9021,9942,0912,1932,2992,4112,5282,6512,7802,9153,0563,2053,3603,523

Current budget (% of GDP)2004/052005/062006/072007/082008/092009/102010/112011/122012/132013/142014/152015/162016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/232023/242024/252025/262026/272027/282028/29

Current Receipts37.338.338.638.737.236.637.23838.438.738.838.738.738.738.738.738.738.738.738.738.738.738.738.738.7

Current expenditure37.638.137.737.839.442.743.242.341.039.738.437.437.437.437.437.437.437.437.437.437.437.437.437.437.4

Depreciation1.21.31.31.31.301.401.421.431.361.351.331.311.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.3

Surplus on current budget-3.5-7.5-7.5-5.7-4.0-2.3-0.90.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0

Cyclically Adjusted Surplus on Current Budget-1.4-0.9-0.4-0.6-3.1-5.3-4.8-3.2-1.9-0.70.30.8-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0

Capital budget

Gross investment12.93.13.23.44.54.94.03.22.92.52.52.42.42.42.42.42.42.42.42.42.42.42.42.42.4

Less depreciation-1.2-1.3-1.3-1.3-1.3-1.4-1.4-1.4-1.4-1.3-1.3-1.3-1.3-1.3-1.3-1.3-1.3-1.3-1.3-1.3-1.3-1.3-1.3-1.3-1.3

Net investment1.71.81.92.13.23.52.61.81.51.21.21.11.11.11.11.11.11.11.11.11.11.11.11.11.1

Net borrowing3.32.92.32.46.711.010.17.55.53.52.11.11.11.11.11.11.11.11.11.11.11.11.11.11.1

Public sector net debt end year3435.33636.544.053.561.967.269.870.369.467.467.165.163.261.459.758.056.555.053.552.250.949.648.5

Total Managed Expenditure40.541.240.941.143.947.547.345.543.942.240.939.839.839.839.839.839.839.839.839.839.839.839.839.839.8

Current budget Billions2004/052005/062006/072007/082008/092009/102010/112011/122012/132013/142014/152015/162016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/232023/242024/252025/262026/272027/282028/29

Current receipts452.6486.6519.2548.7533.8514.65485846226627007377728098498909339781,0261,0761,1281,1831,2401,3001,364

Current expenditure456.6484.4507.2535.8564.7600.66376516656796937117467828208609029459911,0401,0901,1431,1991,2571,318

Depreciation15.216.116.917.818.719.721222223242526272930323335373840424446

Surplus on current budget-19.2-13.9-4.9-4.6-49.7-105.6-110-88-65-40-170-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-1

Capital budget

Gross investment135.839.642.84765.168.759494743454648515356586164677074788185

Less depreciation-15.2-16.1-16.9-17.8-18.7-19.7-21-22-22-23-24-25-26-27-29-30-32-33-35-37-38-40-42-44-46

Net investment20.623.525.929.246.44939272420212122232425272829313234353739

Net borrowing39.837.430.83496.1154.71491168960372022232526272830313334363839

Public sector net debt end year616.9771.593210591162123512841,3161,3381,3621,3861,4121,4391,4671,4971,5281,5611,5951,6311,6681,708

TME (Emergency Budget)492.5524550582.8629.8669.3696.8699.8711722737.57587948338739169601,0071,0561,1071,1611,2171,2761,3381,403

Nominal2004/052005/062006/072007/082008/092009/102010/112011/122012/132013/142014/152015/162016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/232023/242024/252025/262026/272027/282028/29

TME (Emergency Budget)492.5524550582.86306696977007117227387587948338739169601,0071,0561,1071,1611,2171,2761,3381,403

AME209.1220.918230.356239.4279.5291.2316.8329.60344.40358.10375.60391.00407.89425.59444.16463.63484.05505.45527.90551.43576.11601.99629.12657.58687.41

Social Security124.8129.6133.5140.5149.7163.7169.3174.2178.2180.8186.5194203.84213.74224.12235.01246.42258.39270.94284.10297.89312.36327.53343.44360.12

Central Government Debt Interest24.926.828.631.230.530.943.346.552.457.863.066.5067.6368.8170.0571.3572.7174.1475.6477.2178.8680.5882.3984.2986.29

Other AME59.464.568.367.799.396.6104.2108.9113.8119.5126.1130.1136.42143.0150.0157.3164.9172.9181.3190.1199.4209.0219.2229.8241.0

DEL283.4303.1319.6343.1350.4378380.00370.20366.70363.80362.00366.50386.40407.27429.15452.10476.16501.39527.84555.58584.66615.16647.14680.67715.83

Current258.5277.7291.3310.0313.5334.8342.7343.1341.4341.2337.7340.0358.6378.1398.6420.1442.6466.2490.9516.9544.1572.6602.5633.9666.7

Capital32.835.238.844.148.556.651.641.439.637.038.740.842.844.947.049.351.754.256.959.662.565.668.772.175.6

Depreciation-7.9-9.8-10.4-10.9-11.6-13.4-14.3-14.3-14.3-14.4-14.4-14.3-15.0-15.7-16.5-17.3-18.1-19.0-19.9-20.9-21.9-23.0-24.1-25.3-26.5

Real (10/11 Prices)2004/052005/062006/072007/082008/092009/102010/112011/122012/132013/142014/152015/162016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/232023/242024/252025/262026/272027/282028/29

TME (Emergency Budget)571.3596.7608.3626.5660.4688.7696.8686.8682.1675.1671.4671.5685.6700.0714.7729.7745.0760.7776.6793.0809.6826.6844.0861.7879.8

AME242.6251.5254.8257.3293.1299.6316.8323.5330.4334.8341.9346.6352.1357.7363.5369.4375.6381.9388.3395.0401.8408.8416.0423.4431.0

Social Security144.7147.6147.6151.0157.0168.4169.3171.0170.9169.0169.8172.3175.9179.6183.4187.3191.2195.2199.3203.5207.8212.1216.6221.1225.8

Debt Interest28.930.531.633.532.031.843.345.650.354.057.458.958.457.857.356.956.456.055.655.355.054.754.554.354.1

Other AME68.973.575.572.8104.199.4104.2106.9109.2111.7114.8115.3117.8120.2122.7125.3128.0130.6133.4136.2139.0142.0145.0148.0151.1

DEL328.7345.1353.5368.8367.4389.0380.0363.3351.8340.1329.6324.9333.5342.3351.2360.3369.5378.8388.3398.0407.8417.8427.9438.3448.8

Current299.8316.2322.2333.2328.7344.5342.7336.7327.5319.0307.4301.4309.5317.8326.2334.7343.4352.2361.1370.2379.5388.9398.4408.1418.0

Capital38.040.142.947.450.958.251.640.638.034.635.236.236.937.738.539.340.141.041.842.743.644.545.546.447.4

% Real2004/052005/062006/072007/082008/092009/102010/112011/122012/132013/142014/152015/162016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/232023/242024/252025/262026/272027/282028/29

TME (Emergency Budget)4.4%1.9%3.0%5.4%4.3%1.2%-1.4%-0.7%-1.0%-0.5%0.0%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%

AME3.7%1.3%1.0%13.9%2.2%5.7%2.1%2.1%1.3%2.1%1.4%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.7%1.7%1.7%1.7%1.7%1.7%1.8%1.8%1.8%

Social Security2.0%0.0%2.3%4.0%7.3%0.5%1.0%-0.0%-1.1%0.4%1.5%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%

Debt Interest5.7%3.7%6.0%-4.6%-0.6%36.2%5.4%10.2%7.5%6.1%2.8%-1.0%-0.9%-0.9%-0.8%-0.8%-0.7%-0.7%-0.6%-0.6%-0.5%-0.4%-0.4%-0.3%

Other AME6.6%2.8%-3.6%43.0%-4.5%4.8%2.6%2.2%2.3%2.7%0.5%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%

DEL5.0%2.4%4.3%-0.4%5.9%-2.3%-4.4%-3.2%-3.3%-3.1%-1.4%2.7%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.4%2.4%2.4%

Current5.5%1.9%3.4%-1.4%4.8%-0.5%-1.8%-2.7%-2.6%-3.6%-2.0%2.7%2.7%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.4%2.4%

Capital5.4%7.0%10.4%7.4%14.5%-11.4%-21.3%-6.5%-8.9%1.8%2.7%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%

% of GDP2004/052005/062006/072007/082008/092009/102010/112011/122012/132013/142014/152015/162016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/232023/242024/252025/262026/272027/282028/29

TME (Emergency Budget)41%41%41%41%44%47.5%47.3%45.5%43.9%42.2%40.9%39.8%39.8%39.8%39.8%39.8%39.8%39.8%39.8%39.8%39.8%39.8%39.8%39.8%39.8%

AME17%17%17%17%19%20.7%21.5%21.4%21.3%20.9%20.8%20.6%20.5%20.4%20.3%20.2%20.1%20.0%19.9%19.8%19.8%19.7%19.6%19.6%19.5%

Social Security10.3%10.2%9.9%9.9%10.4%11.6%11.5%11.3%11.0%10.6%10.3%10.2%10.2%10.2%10.2%10.2%10.2%10.2%10.2%10.2%10.2%10.2%10.2%10.2%10.2%

Debt Interest2%2%2%2%2%2.2%2.9%3.0%3.2%3.4%3.5%3.5%3.4%3.3%3.2%3.1%3.0%2.9%2.9%2.8%2.7%2.6%2.6%2.5%2.4%

Other AME4.9%5.1%5.1%4.8%6.9%6.9%7.1%7.1%7.0%7.0%7.0%6.8%6.8%6.8%6.8%6.8%6.8%6.8%6.8%6.8%6.8%6.8%6.8%6.8%6.8%

DEL23%24%24%24%24%26.8%25.8%24.1%22.6%21.3%20.1%19.3%19.4%19.5%19.6%19.7%19.7%19.8%19.9%20.0%20.1%20.1%20.2%20.3%20.3%

Current21%22%22%22%22%23.8%23.2%22.3%21.1%20.0%18.7%17.9%18.0%18.1%18.2%18.3%18.4%18.4%18.5%18.6%18.7%18.7%18.8%18.9%18.9%

Capital3%3%3%3%3%4.0%3.5%2.7%2.4%2.2%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%

Real GDP (money GDP in 2008/09 prices)1343.69579646021380.03735597861419.88693295081453.91042266814341381.74681059861405.74945806161440.37268556641482.09362099751524.78767592341565.44763871941607.98831377771641.75606836711676.23294580281711.43383766461747.37394825561784.0688011691821.53424599351859.78646515941898.84198092771938.71766252721979.43073344032020.99877884252063.43975319822106.7719880154

Real GDP growth2.7%2.9%2.4%-1.4%-3.6%1.7%2.5%2.9%2.9%2.7%2.7%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%

UK DEL Cumulative Loss-9.0-34.6-71.8-120.6-180.0-244.1-299.5-346.2-384.0-412.7-432.2-442.3-443.0-434.0

Scottish DEL Cumulative Loss-0.7-3.1-6.0-9.6-14.0-18.8-23.1-27.1-30.6-33.7-36.2-38.3-39.9-41.0

8%9%8%8%8%8%8%8%8%8%8%9%9%9%

7.7%7.7%7.6%7.7%7.7%7.8%7.7%7.7%7.6%7.5%7.5%7.4%7.3%7.3%7.2%

-0.406018745

-50.4

-0.9%

1.9%

51.651.123580997650.651560736850.18389860440.1%

7.3%

2.5%

0.0%

-3.5%

239.4310.671.2

140.717029.3

31.242.511.3

67.598.130.6

Simon Fuller:Figures to 2007/08 are taken from PESA.

2008-09 to 2015-16 taken from Table C13 emergency budget

000

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TME

AME

DEL

% Annual Real Growth

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000

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000

000

000

000

TME

AME

DEL


00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

Net Debt (Right Hand Scale)

Net Borrowing (Left Hand Scale)

% of GDP

% of GDP

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000

000

000

000

000

TME

AME

DEL


00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

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00

Simon Fuller:Cash values from 2004/05 to 2007-08 are taken from HMT GDP Deflators and Budget 2010

2008-09 to 2015-16 taken from Emergency budget table c5.

For future years, GDP is assumed to grow by X% (GDP deflator) plus 2.1% trend growth

Simon Fuller:GDP Deflators up to 2007-08 are taken from HMT website and Budget 2010.

2008-09 to 2015-16 taken from table C5 emergency budget

In future years, deflators are assumed to remain constant at 2.7%, their long run average

Simon Fuller:Output gap figures to 2015-16 are taken from Emergency budget table table C6

In future years, output gap is assumed to fall by 0.8% a year and then remain fixed at 0.

Simon Fuller:Years to 2014/15 are taken from HMT Public Finance Databank table B2

In future years, current expenditure is equal to the value of spending in previous years, plus any additional cyclical improvement, or fiscal tightening specified in rows 14 and 15

Simon Fuller:For years to 2007-08, taken from HMT Public Finance Databank table B2

2008-09 to 2015-160 from table c13 Emergency budget

costant share in future yrs

Simon Fuller:For years to 2014/15, taken from HMT Public Finance Databank table B2

In future years it is assumed to remain constant at 1.3% of GDP

Simon Fuller:The inverse of row 22

Simon Fuller:Years to 2007-08 are taken from HMT Public Finance Databank table C1

2008-09 to 2015-16 taken from emergency budget table C6

In future years, current receipts are equal to the value of receipts in previous years, plus any additional cyclical improvement, or fiscal tightening specified in rows 14 and 15

Simon Fuller:Years to 2014/15 are taken from HMT Public Finance Databank table B2

In future years net investment is assumed to remain constant as a share of GDP

Simon Fuller:Years to 2014/15 are calculated by adding depreciation to net investment.

In future years, gross investment is assumed to remain constant as a share of GDP

Simon Fuller:To 2014/15, taken from Budget 2010 table C4

In future years it is equal to the surplus on current budget minus net investment

Simon Fuller:Years to 2007-08 are taken from Budget 2010 table C4.

2008-09 to 2015-16 taken from emergency budget table 1.3 w

In future years, net debt constant share of GDP

Simon Fuller:Years to 2014/15 are taken from HMT Public Finance Databank table C1 and Budget 2010 table C3.

Future years are derieved from row 10

Simon Fuller:Years to 2014/15 are taken from HMT Public Finance Databank table B1 and Budget 2010 table C3.




Simon Fuller:Years to 2014/15 are taken from HMT Public Finance Databank table B1 and Budget 2010 table 'key'.


Simon Fuller:Years to 2014/15 are calculated by adding depreciation to net investment.

In future years it is derieved from row 21





Simon Fuller:Years to 2014/15 are taken from HMT Public Finance Databank table 'Key' and Budget 2010 table C3.


Simon Fuller:Years to 2014/15 are taken from Budget 2010 table C3.

2015/16 to 2017/18 are derieved from row 25.

In future years net debt is assumed to grow in line with net borrowing

Simon Fuller:Years to 2007-08 are taken from HMT Public Finance Databank table B1 and Budget 2010 table C9.

2008-09 to 2015-16 taken from Emergency Budget table 2.3

future = assume constant share of GDP

Simon Fuller:From row 42

Simon Fuller:Years to 2010/11 are taken from PESA and Budget 2010 table C9

For 2011/12 to 2014/15, social security is assumed to grow at the rate specified in the 'AME Estimates' worksheet.

For 2015/16 and 20016/17, Social Security is assumed to grow in line with inflation.

From 2017/18 it is assumed to remain constant as a share of GDP

Simon Fuller:figures to 2007/08 are taken from PESA, 08/09 to 2014/15 are calculated in the 'AME Estimate' spreadsheet

For 2015/16 onwards, debt interest is assumed to grow in line with public sector net debt

Simon Fuller:Up to 2010/11 Other AME is the differrence between total AME and social security and debt interest.

From 2011/12 to 2014/15 it is assumed to grow in line with the assumptions in the AME estimate spreadsheet

Simon Fuller:2004/05 to 2010/11 are taken from PESA and Budget 2010 table C9

From 2011/12 to 2016/17, capital DEL moves in line with gross investment.

From 2017/18 onwards it remains constant as a share of GDP

Simon Fuller:Figures to 2010/11 are taken from PESA and Budget 2010 table C9

In future years total DEL is the difference between TME and AME

Simon Fuller:

table C13 emergency budget

For 2015-06, current DEL is the difference between total DEL and capital DEL

Simon Fuller:For 2008/09 to 2010/11 DEL depreciation is taken from Budget 2010 table C11

For future years DEL's share of total depreciation (row 22) is assumed to remain constant at its 2010/11 level

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Annually Managed Expenditure

Total UK Departmental Expenditure Limits


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Annually Managed Expenditure


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AME

DEL

% of GDP

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Social Security

Debt Interest

Other AME

% of GDP

0

0

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0

% of GDP

Barnett Consequentials from Current Spending

MillionsEmerg Budget 2010-112011-122012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-182018-192019-202020-20212021-20222022-20232020-20242024-20252025-20262026-20272027-20282028-2029Scotland2011-122012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-182018-192019-202020-20212021-20222022-20232020-20242024-20252025-20262026-20272027-20282028-2029

CompPopBudgetConsequentialsConsequentialsConsequentialsConsequentialsConsequentialsConsequentialsConsequentialsConsequentialsConsequentialsConsequentialsConsequentialsConsequentialsConsequentialsConsequentialsConsequentialsConsequentialsConsequentialsConsequentials

Children Scools & Families50,900.050,15848,68947,54845,69445,93448,49951,18854,00756,96460,06463,31466,72370,29774,04477,97482,09486,41590,945100.0%10.1%-74.581-147.643-114.662-186.28424.127257.719270.236283.361297.123311.553326.684342.550359.187376.632394.923414.104434.215455.304

Health (Protected from cuts)101,500.0103,429105,807108,558111,489112,075118,332124,893131,772138,985146,549154,480162,797171,517180,660190,248200,302210,843221,89799.3%10.1%192.458237.401274.539292.51158.456624.407654.733686.531719.874754.836791.496829.937870.244912.509956.8271,003.2981,052.0251,103.118

Transport6,400.06,3076,1225,9795,7455,7766,0986,4366,7917,1627,5527,9618,3898,8399,3109,80410,32210,86611,43591.5%10.1%-8.581-16.986-13.192-21.4322.77629.65031.09032.60034.18435.84437.58539.41041.32443.33145.43647.64249.95652.382

Communities3,800.03,7453,6353,5503,4113,4293,6213,8214,0324,2534,4844,7274,9815,2485,5285,8216,1296,4516,79099.6%10.1%-5.546-10.978-8.526-13.8521.79419.16320.09421.07022.09323.16624.29125.47126.70828.00529.36630.79232.28733.855

Local Government26,000.025,62124,87124,28823,34123,46424,77326,14727,58729,09730,68132,34134,08235,90837,82239,82941,93444,14146,45519.4%10.1%-7.391-14.631-11.363-18.4602.39125.53926.77928.08029.44430.87432.37333.94535.59437.32339.13541.03643.02945.119

Business Innovation & Skills19,200.018,92018,36617,93617,23617,32718,29419,30920,37221,48722,65723,88325,16826,51727,93029,41330,96732,59734,30576.2%10.1%-21.437-42.438-32.958-53.5446.93574.07777.67581.44885.40389.55193.90098.461103.243108.257113.514119.028124.808130.870

Home Office9,400.09,2638,9928,7818,4398,4838,9579,4539,97410,52011,09211,69312,32212,98213,67414,40015,16115,95916,79599.8%9.5%-12.994-25.722-19.976-32.4544.20344.90047.08149.36751.76554.27956.91559.67962.57865.61768.80472.14575.64979.323

Justice9,100.08,9678,7058,5018,1698,2128,6719,1519,65610,18410,73811,31911,92912,56813,23813,94014,67715,44916,25999.7%9.5%-12.566-24.877-19.319-31.3874.06543.42345.53247.74450.06252.49455.04357.71760.52063.45966.54169.77373.16176.715

Law Officers700.06906706546286326677047437838268719189671,0181,0721,1291,1881,25199.7%9.5%-0.967-1.914-1.486-2.4140.3133.3403.5023.6733.8514.0384.2344.4404.6554.8815.1195.3675.6285.901

Defence36,000.035,47534,43633,62932,31832,48834,30236,20338,19840,28942,48144,78047,19149,71952,36955,14958,06361,11964,3230.0%0.0%0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000

Foreign and Commonwealth Office2,000.02,1452,3312,5432,6212,7322,8693,0133,1643,3223,4883,6623,8444,0354,2364,4464,6674,8985,1400.0%0.0%0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000

of which overseas aid1,309.11,464.31,670.41,897.82,000.32,108.32,210.72,318.12,430.72,548.72,672.52,802.32,938.43,081.13,230.83,387.73,552.23,724.73,905.6

of which other FCO spending690.96816616456206246586957337738158599069541,0051,0581,1141,1731,234

International Development6,100.06,8237,7848,8439,3219,82410,30110,80211,32611,87612,45313,05813,69214,35715,05515,78616,55217,35618,1990.0%0.0%0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000

Energy & Climate Change1,200.01,1831,1481,1211,0771,0831,1431,2071,2731,3431,4161,4931,5731,6571,7461,8381,9352,0372,14433.5%10.1%-0.589-1.166-0.906-1.4710.1912.0352.1342.2382.3472.4612.5802.7052.8372.9753.1193.2713.4293.596

Environment Food & Rural Affairs2,400.02,3652,2962,2422,1552,1662,2872,4142,5472,6862,8322,9853,1463,3153,4913,6773,8714,0754,28891.0%10.1%-3.200-6.335-4.920-7.9931.03511.05811.59512.15812.74913.36814.01714.69815.41216.16016.94517.76818.63119.536

Culture Media & Sport1,500.01,4781,4351,4011,3471,3541,4291,5081,5921,6791,7701,8661,9662,0722,1822,2982,4192,5472,68095.8%10.1%-2.106-4.168-3.237-5.2590.6817.2767.6298.0008.3888.7969.2239.67110.14110.63311.14911.69112.25912.854

Work & Pensions8,800.08,6728,4188,2207,9007,9428,3858,8509,3379,84810,38410,94611,53612,15312,80113,48114,19314,94015,7230.8%10.1%-0.103-0.204-0.159-0.2580.0330.3560.3740.3920.4110.4310.4520.4740.4970.5210.5460.5730.6010.630

Scotland25,700.025,32524,58424,00723,07223,19324,48825,84527,26928,76230,32731,96833,68935,49437,38639,37041,45043,63245,9190.0%0.0%0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000

Wales13,900.013,69713,29612,98512,47812,54413,24413,97914,74915,55616,40217,29018,22119,19720,22021,29322,41923,59924,8360.0%0.0%0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000

Northern Ireland Executive8,600.08,4758,2268,0347,7207,7618,1948,6499,1259,62510,14810,69711,27311,87712,51013,17413,87114,60115,3660.0%0.0%0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000

Northern Ireland Office1,200.01,1831,1481,1211,0771,0831,1431,2071,2731,3431,4161,4931,5731,6571,7461,8381,9352,0372,1440.0%0.0%0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000

Chancellors4,100.04,0403,9223,8303,6813,7003,9074,1234,3504,5884,8385,1005,3755,6625,9646,2816,6136,9617,3260.8%10.1%-0.048-0.095-0.074-0.1200.0160.1660.1740.1830.1910.2010.2110.2210.2310.2430.2540.2670.2800.293

Cabinet Office2,300.02,2662,2002,1492,0652,0762,1912,3132,4402,5742,7142,8613,0153,1763,3463,5233,7103,9054,1107.2%10.1%-0.243-0.480-0.373-0.6060.0780.8380.8790.9220.9671.0141.0631.1141.1691.2251.2851.3471.4131.481

Independent Bodies1,000.0985.42956.56934.14897.739029531,0061,0611,1191,1801,2441,3111,3811,4551,5321,6131,6981,787

Modernisation Funding200.0197.08191.31186.83179.55180191201212224236249262276291306323340357

Reserve600.0591.25573.93560.49538.645415726036376717087467878298739199681,0191,072

AME Margin0.01,0002,5003,5005,0005,0005,0005,0005,0005,0005,0005,0005,0005,0005,0005,0005,0005,0005,000

TOTAL (Excluding Health, Overseas Aid and AME Margin)233,691230,284223,539218,301209,791Consequentials42.107-60.23743.389-83.024107.0961,143.9511,199.5091,257.7661,318.8521,382.9041,450.0681,520.4931,594.3391,671.7711,752.9641,838.1001,927.3712,020.978

Total (Excluding Overseas Aid)335,191333,712329,346326,859321,280322,968340,998359,904379,729400,516422,312445,167469,132494,261520,611548,240577,211607,589639,443

TOTAL SPENDING342,600343,000341,300341,100337,601339,901358,511378,024398,486419,941442,438466,028490,763516,700543,896572,414602,316633,670666,548

Nominal change (From HMT Projections)0.12%-0.50%-0.06%-1.03%0.68%5.48%5.44%5.41%5.38%5.36%5.33%5.31%5.28%5.26%5.24%5.22%5.21%5.19%

Double Check342,600343,000341,300341,100337,601339,901358,511378,024398,486419,941442,438466,028490,763516,700543,896572,414602,316633,670666,548

0.12%-0.50%-0.06%-1.03%0.68%5.48%5.44%5.41%5.38%5.36%5.33%5.31%5.28%5.26%5.24%5.22%5.21%5.19%

Assumed real increase in health0.00%

Barnett Consequentials from Capital Spending

MillionsEmerg Budget 2010-112011-122012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-182018-192019-202020-20212021-20222022-20232020-20242024-20252025-20262026-20272027-20282028-2029Scotland2011-122012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-182018-192019-202020-20212021-20222022-20232020-20242024-20252025-20262026-20272027-20282028-2029

CompPopBudgetConsequentialsConsequentialsConsequentialsConsequentialsConsequentialsConsequentialsConsequentialsConsequentialsConsequentialsConsequentialsConsequentialsConsequentialsConsequentialsConsequentialsConsequentialsConsequentialsConsequentialsConsequentials

Children Scools & Families6,7005,1364,8114,3594,5714,8195,0535,2995,5565,8266,1096,4056,7167,0437,3857,7438,1198,5148,927100.0%10.1%-157.145-32.732-45.39721.30924.93723.52224.66425.86227.11828.43529.81631.26532.78334.37536.04537.79539.63141.556

Health4,9004,9935,1085,2415,3825,6745,9506,2396,5426,8607,1937,5427,9098,2938,6959,1189,56010,02510,51299.3%10.1%9.29111.46113.25414.12129.15727.50328.83930.23931.70833.24834.86236.55638.33140.19342.14544.19246.33848.588

Transport7,2005,5205,1704,6844,9125,1795,4305,6945,9716,2616,5656,8837,2187,5687,9368,3218,7259,1499,59391.5%10.1%-154.518-32.185-44.63820.95324.52023.12924.25225.43026.66527.96029.31830.74232.23533.80135.44237.16338.96840.861

Communities6,2004,7534,4524,0344,2304,4594,6764,9035,1415,3915,6535,9276,2156,5176,8347,1667,5147,8788,26199.6%10.1%-144.836-30.168-41.84119.64022.98321.68022.73323.83724.99426.20827.48128.81630.21531.68333.22134.83536.52738.301

Local Government000000000000000000019.4%10.1%0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000

Business Innovation & Skills2,0001,5331,4361,3011,3641,4391,5081,5821,6581,7391,8231,9122,0052,1022,2042,3112,4242,5412,66576.2%10.1%-35.745-7.445-10.3264.8475.6725.3505.6105.8836.1686.4686.7827.1127.4577.8198.1998.5979.0159.452

Home Office8006135745205465756036336636967297658028418829259691,0171,06699.8%9.5%-17.701-3.687-5.1142.4002.8092.6502.7782.9133.0553.2033.3593.5223.6933.8724.0604.2574.4644.681

Justice60046043139040943245347549852254757460163166169372776279999.7%9.5%-13.263-2.763-3.8311.7982.1051.9852.0822.1832.2892.4002.5162.6392.7672.9013.0423.1903.3453.507

Law Officers000000000000000000099.7%9.5%0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000

Defence10,1007,7437,2526,5716,8917,2657,6177,9878,3758,7829,2099,65610,12510,61711,13211,67312,24012,83413,4580.0%0.0%0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000

Foreign and Commonwealth Office2001992172352472612732863003153303463633813994194394604830.0%0.0%0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000

of which overseas aid131146167190200211221232243255267280294308323339355372391

of which other FCO spending69535045475052555760636669737680848892

International Development1,6001,7902,0422,3202,4452,5772,7022,8332,9713,1153,2663,4253,5913,7663,9494,1414,3424,5524,7740.0%0.0%0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000

Energy & Climate Change1,9001,4571,3641,2361,2961,3671,4331,5031,5761,6521,7321,8161,9051,9972,0942,1962,3032,4142,53233.5%10.1%-14.929-3.110-4.3132.0242.3692.2352.3432.4572.5762.7012.8332.9703.1143.2663.4243.5913.7653.948

Environment Food & Rural Affairs50038335932534136037739541543545647850152655157860663566691.0%10.1%-10.672-2.223-3.0831.4471.6931.5971.6751.7561.8421.9312.0252.1232.2262.3342.4482.5672.6912.822

Culture Media & Sport50038335932534136037739541543545647850152655157860663566695.8%10.1%-11.235-2.340-3.2461.5231.7831.6821.7631.8491.9392.0332.1322.2352.3442.4582.5772.7022.8332.971

Work & Pensions2001531441301361441511581661741821912002102202312422542660.8%10.1%-0.038-0.008-0.0110.0050.0060.0060.0060.0060.0060.0070.0070.0070.0080.0080.0090.0090.0090.010

Scotland3,2002,4532,2982,0822,1832,3022,4132,5312,6542,7822,9183,0593,2083,3643,5273,6983,8784,0664,2640.0%0.0%0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000

Wales1,7001,3031,2211,1061,1601,2231,2821,3441,4101,4781,5501,6251,7041,7871,8741,9652,0602,1602,2650.0%0.0%0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000

Northern Ireland Executive1,1008437907167507918308709129561,0031,0521,1031,1561,2121,2711,3331,3981,4660.0%0.0%0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000

Northern Ireland Office10077726568727579838791961001051101161211271330.0%0.0%0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000

Chancellors3002302151952052162262372492612742873013153313473643814000.8%10.1%-0.056-0.012-0.0160.0080.0090.0080.0090.0090.0100.0100.0110.0110.0120.0120.0130.0140.0140.015

Cabinet Office3002302151952052162262372492612742873013153313473643814007.2%10.1%-0.507-0.106-0.1460.0690.0800.0760.0800.0830.0870.0920.0960.1010.1060.1110.1160.1220.1280.134

Independent Bodies100.07772656872757983879196100105110116121127133

Modernisation Funding1,5001,1501,0779761,0231,0791,1311,1861,2441,3041,3681,4341,5041,5771,6531,7341,8181,9061,999

Reserve0000000000000000000

TOTAL (Excluding Health and overseas aid)45,06934,55132,36029,32230,748Consequentials-551.351-105.317-148.71090.146118.123111.422116.834122.508128.458134.696141.238148.098155.290162.832170.741179.033187.728196.846

Total Excluding Overseas Aid49,96939,54437,46834,56236,13038,09139,94141,88143,91546,04848,28450,63053,08855,66758,37061,20564,17867,29570,563

TOTAL Spending51,70041,48039,67737,07238,77540,87942,86444,94647,12949,41851,81854,33556,97459,74162,64265,68468,87572,22075,727

Nominal change (From HMT Projections)-19.77%-4.35%-6.57%4.59%5.43%4.86%4.86%4.86%4.86%4.86%4.86%4.86%4.86%4.86%4.86%4.86%4.86%4.86%

Double Check51,70041,48039,67737,07238,77540,87942,86444,94647,12949,41851,81854,33556,97459,74162,64265,68468,87572,22075,727

-19.77%-4.35%-6.57%4.59%5.43%4.86%4.86%4.86%4.86%4.86%4.86%4.86%4.86%4.86%4.86%4.86%4.86%4.86%

Analaysis based on June Budget 2010Emerg Budget 2010-112011-122012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-182018-192019-202020-20212021-20222022-20232020-20242024-20252025-20262026-20272027-20282028-2029

Overseas Aid (Cash)9,14010,22411,66313,25113,96614,72015,43516,18516,97117,79518,65919,56620,51621,51222,55723,65324,80126,00627,269

GNI1,632,1431,703,9571,794,2671,892,9521,995,1712,102,9102,205,0422,312,1342,424,4282,542,1752,665,6412,795,1032,930,8533,073,1963,222,4523,378,9563,543,0623,715,1383,895,571

Assumed Nominal Growth in GNI1.0441.0531.0551.0541.054

Overseas Aid as a % of GNI0.560%0.600%0.650%0.700%0.700%0.700%0.700%0.700%0.700%0.700%0.700%0.700%0.700%0.700%0.700%0.700%0.700%0.700%0.700%

Source: http://www.parliament.uk/briefingpapers/commons/lib/research/briefings/snep-03714.pdf

Appendix 1

Overseas Aid9,140.010,223.711,662.713,250.713,966.2

Health106,400.0108,421.6110,915.3113,799.1116,871.7

AME Margin0.01,000.02,500.03,500.05,000.0

Other278,760.0264,834.8255,899.1247,622.4240,538.6

GDP Index104.86106.85109.30112.15115.17

Overseas Aid9,14010,03311,18812,38912,71539.1%

Health106,400106,400106,400106,400106,4000.0%

AME Margin0.09812,3983,2724,552

Other284,760259,897245,482231,522218,986-23.1%

Total400,300377,311365,468353,584342,653-14.4%

2009/102010/112011/122012/132013/142014/15

Total DEL378385.8370.2366.7363.8362

of which international development7.49.110.211.713.314.0

of which heatlh103106108111114117

of which AME margin002345

of which other267.6270.3249.6241.1232.8226.2

GDP Deflators100.00101.90104.86106.85109.30112.15115.17

Real Terms (10/11 Prices)

Total Fall Since 2010/11

Total DEL389.0385.8363.3351.8340.1329.6-14.6%

of which international development7.79.110.011.212.412.739%

of which heatlh106.0106.4106.4106.4106.4106.40%

of which AME margin0.00.02.02.93.74.6

of which other275.3270.3244.9231.3217.6205.9-24%

Simon Fuller:DEL Figures are taken from Budget 2010 table C11

Simon Fuller:DEL Figures are taken from Budget 2010 table C11

Simon Fuller:AME Margin moves in line with total DEL after this point

Simon Fuller:Health moves in line with total DEL from this point onwards

Simon Fuller:ODA continues to grow in line with GDP

Simon Fuller:ODA continues to grow in line with GDP

1999/002000/012001/022002/032003/042004/052005/062006/072007/082008/092009/102010/112011/122012/132013/142014/152015/162016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/232023/242024/252025/262026/272027/282028/29

GDP Deflators80.00281.05382.86385.53687.94790.39292.07994.80397.55100.00101.90104.86106.85109.30112.15115.17118.28121.48124.76128.13131.59135.14138.79142.53146.38150.34154.39158.56162.84167.24

Table A1 - Baseline Budget Millions1999/002000/012001/022002/032003/042004/052005/062006/072007/082008/092009/102010/112011/122012/132013/142014/152015/162016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/232023/242024/252025/262026/272027/282028/29

Current Consequentials-21842-6043-831071,1441,2001,2581,3191,3831,4501,5201,5941,6721,7531,8381,9272,021

Capital Consequentials-114-551-105-14990118111117123128135141148155163171179188197

Non Recurring consequentials to remove from the 2011/12 Baseline (Finance Sheet)

Current Consequentials-3218

Capital Consequentials-76114

Scottish Government DEL Budget (Cash)13,80714,70516,39617,80719,50721,03322,86224,90626,32627,62529,07929,24328,03428,20128,09528,10328,32829,58330,89932,28033,72735,24536,83638,50540,25442,08944,01246,03048,14550,363

Current16,14518,08519,33321,00921,77922,99624,75825,15525,92425,37425,53125,57525,49225,59926,74327,94229,20030,51931,90233,35234,87236,46738,13939,89241,73043,65745,678

Capital1,6621,4221,7001,8543,1273,3293,2623,9243,3192,6612,6692,5212,6112,7292,8402,9573,0803,2083,3433,4843,6323,7873,9504,1214,3004,4884,685

Scottish Government DEL Budget (Real 10/11 Prices)18,09619,02320,74821,82923,25724,39826,03527,54728,29828,96629,92229,24327,51227,05326,26925,58525,11225,53525,97026,41726,87627,34727,83028,32628,83429,35629,89030,43931,00031,576

Current19,79221,56222,42623,92424,08824,71825,96025,88425,92424,90124,49223,91223,20822,69323,08323,48523,89724,31924,75325,19825,65426,12126,60127,09227,59528,11128,639

Capital2,0371,6951,9722,1113,4583,5783,4204,0383,3192,6112,5612,3572,3772,4192,4522,4852,5202,5562,5942,6322,6722,7132,7552,7992,8432,8902,937

Growth Rates

Total DEL Budget

% change year on year (cash)6.5%11.5%8.6%9.5%7.8%8.7%8.9%5.7%4.9%5.3%0.6%-4.1%0.6%-0.4%0.0%0.8%4.4%4.4%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.6%4.6%4.6%4.6%4.6%

% change year on year (real)5.1%9.1%5.2%6.5%4.9%6.7%5.8%2.7%2.4%3.3%-2.3%-5.9%-1.7%-2.9%-2.6%-1.8%1.7%1.7%1.7%1.7%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.9%

% change vs 09-10 (real)-2.3%-8.1%-9.6%-12.2%-14.5%-16.1%-14.7%-13.2%-11.7%-10.2%-8.6%-7.0%-5.3%-3.6%-1.9%-0.1%1.7%3.6%5.5%

Change vs 09-10 Cash164-1,045-878-984-976-7515041,8203,2014,6486,1667,7579,42611,17513,01014,93316,95119,06621,284

Change vs 09-10 Real-679-2,411-2,870-3,654-4,338-4,811-4,387-3,952-3,505-3,047-2,576-2,092-1,597-1,088-566-325161,0781,653

Current DEL Budget

% change year on year (cash)12.0%6.9%8.7%3.7%5.6%7.7%1.6%3.1%-2.1%0.6%0.2%-0.3%0.4%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.6%4.6%4.6%4.6%4.6%4.6%4.6%

% change year on year (real)8.9%4.0%6.7%0.7%2.6%5.0%-0.3%0.2%-3.9%-1.6%-2.4%-2.9%-2.2%1.7%1.7%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.9%1.9%1.9%

% change vs 09-10 (real)0.2%-3.8%-5.4%-7.6%-10.3%-12.3%-10.8%-9.3%-7.7%-6.0%-4.4%-2.7%-0.9%0.9%2.8%4.7%6.6%8.6%10.6%

Change vs 09-10 Cash7692193764203374441,5882,7874,0455,3646,7478,1979,71711,31212,98414,73716,57518,50220,523

Change vs 09-10 Real40-984-1,392-1,972-2,677-3,192-2,801-2,400-1,988-1,565-1,132-687-2312377161,2071,7112,2262,754

Capital DEL Budget

% change year on year (cash)-14.4%19.6%9.1%68.7%6.5%-2.0%20.3%-15.4%-19.8%0.3%-5.6%3.6%4.5%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.2%4.2%4.2%4.3%4.3%4.3%4.3%4.3%4.4%4.4%

% change year on year (real)-16.8%16.3%7.1%63.8%3.5%-4.4%18.1%-17.8%-21.3%-1.9%-8.0%0.9%1.8%1.3%1.4%1.4%1.4%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%

% change vs 09-10 (real)-17.8%-35.3%-36.6%-41.6%-41.1%-40.1%-39.3%-38.4%-37.6%-36.7%-35.8%-34.8%-33.8%-32.8%-31.8%-30.7%-29.6%-28.4%-27.3%

Change vs 09-10 Cash-605-1,263-1,255-1,403-1,313-1,195-1,084-967-844-716-581-440-292-13726197376564761

Change vs 09-10 Real-719-1,427-1,477-1,681-1,661-1,619-1,586-1,552-1,518-1,481-1,444-1,406-1,366-1,325-1,283-1,239-1,194-1,148-1,101

Cumulative Loss-679-3,090-5,960-9,613-13,951-18,762-23,149-27,101-30,607-33,654-36,229-38,322-39,918-41,006-41,573-41,605-41,088-40,010-38,357

Cumulative Loss (Rounded)-0.7-3.1-6.0-9.6-14.0-18.8-23.1-27.1-30.6-33.7-36.2-38.3-39.9-41.0-41.6-41.6-41.1-40.0-38.4

Annual Cash Change in DEL ( Billions)164-1,209166-10572251,2551,3161,3801,4471,5181,5911,6691,7501,8351,9242,0172,1152,218

Cumulative Cash Change Vs 09/10164-1,045-878-984-976-7515041,8203,2014,6486,1667,7579,42611,17513,01014,93316,95119,06621,284

-0.2711718791

-900

Steps to estimating the Scottish Budget in 2011/12-1,731-0.1251059234

-0.0592094882

Scottish Government DEL Budget (Cash) 2010/1129,243-3.3%

Current25,924-3.0%

Capital3,319-2.9%

Add back in capital acceleration to 2011/12 baseline347

Current0

Capital347

Remove EYF-303

Current-153

Capital-150

Remove non recurring consequentials received in 20101/11-79

Current-3

Capital-76

Remove 330 million from the baseline (share of 6.2bn cuts)-332

Current-218

Capital-114

Scottish baseline for 2011/1228,876

Current25,550

Capital3,326

Deduct the impact of deferring 330 million of cuts to 2011/12-332

Current-218

Capital-114

Include Consequentials Received in 2011/12-509

Current42

Capital-551

Scottish Government DEL Budget in 2011/1228,03528,034

Current25,37425,374

Capital2,6612,661

Simon Fuller:Taken from UK Nominal change worksheet

Simon Fuller:Taken from the consequential spreadsheet

Simon Fuller:Taken from the consequential spreadsheet

Simon Fuller:Figures for 2007/08 to 2010/11 were provided by Finance

In future years the budget is equal to the previous years value plus the consequentials received

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0


1


0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0


0.02362219790.0229081631

0.0329994080.0339101345

-0.0227018379-0.0128325641

-0.0592094882-0.0338127797

-0.016679121-0.0336475197

-0.0289811627-0.0324281413

-0.02604334-0.0174579598

-0.0184866690.0066105384

0.01686081280.009625922

0.01703646120.0214993448

0.01720531140.0218065742

0.01736757150.0220261809

0.01752344790.0222357566

0.0176731450.0224356531

0.01781686460.0226262187

0.01795480550.0228077972


0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Simon Fuller:Baseline for 11/12 is

Budget in 10/11 minus EYF, minus non recurring consequentials and minus the 332 million in cuts. To this we had the consequentials received in 11/12 plus the 332 million in negative consequentials which were defferred.

Simon Fuller:

Baseline for 12/13 is the budget for 2011/12, plus 332 million in cuts which were deffered from 2010/11 to 2011/12. These have allready been removed from the baseline for 2011/12. If we don't add them back in it would produce double counting

Simon Fuller:Baseline for 12/13 is the budget for 2011/12, plus 332 million in cuts which were deffered from 2010/11 to 2011/12. These have allready been removed from the baseline for 2011/12. If we don't add them back in it would produce double counting

Simon Fuller:Accelerated capital is put back in the baseline for 2011.12

10/11 to 14/15

15/16 - 16/17

17/18 onwards

June Budget Scenario

UK Budget 2010 Scenario


-0.0038682256

0.0586527216

-0.0230408112

-0.0439543412

-0.0317246813

-0.0330490955

-0.0311078612

-0.0141860378

0.0265858246

0.0262981175

0.026026638

0.0257703312

0.0255282245

0.0252994202

0.025083088

0.0248784592

0.0246848212


2 years to reach trend growth

Total UK Departmental Expenditure Limits


28297.9564765395

28966.416405486

29922.291

29243

27511.5369355862

27052.6686822463

26268.6508884564

25584.5274818197

25111.5547910384

25534.9560166622

25969.9813052926

26416.8029207665

26875.5986331861

27346.5517848954

27829.8513591478

28325.692051487

28834.2743438643


Millions (2010-11 Prices)

28297.956476539528554.9139068859

28966.41640548629209.05453125

29922.29130199.5375

2924329812

27511.536935586228803.973411159

27052.668682246327834.7911470682

26268.650888456426932.1606063332

25584.527481819726461.9800300022

25111.554791038426636.9079663016

25534.956016662226893.3127641017

25969.981305292627471.5013687908

26416.802920766528070.5607005318

26875.598633186128688.847947222

27346.551784895429326.7661874828

27829.851359147829984.7313414564

28325.69205148730663.1724309094

28834.274343864331362.5318477174

UK Budget 2010 Scenario Plus 6.2 billion cuts

UK Budget 2010 Scenario


29922.291

29243

27511.5369355862

27052.6686822463

26268.6508884564

25584.5274818197

25111.5547910384

25534.9560166622

25969.9813052926

26416.8029207665

26875.5986331861

27346.5517848954

27829.8513591478

28325.692051487

28834.2743438643

29355.8045815178

29890.4950526395

30438.5640708578

2009-10

2025-26

16 years

42 billion

UK Budget 2010 Scenario Plus 6.2 billion cuts


29243

27511.5369355862

27052.6686822463

26268.6508884564

25584.5274818197

25111.5547910384

1.7bn

500m

800m

700m

500m


Millions (2010/11 Prices

Long-Term Budgetary Impact16 years39 billion2009-10 2025-26Scottish Government DEL Expenditure (2010-11 prices)

Stage of the Recovery

Unemployment Remains High

Gradual Recovery in Scottish GDP

Significant Risks RemainImpact of the fiscal consolidation

Rising inflationary pressures

Sovereign debt concerns in Euro Area

Concluding ThoughtsScottish economy in early stages of recoveryEffects of the recession still being feltSignificant uncertainty remains over strength of the recoveryImpact on the public finances over the medium to long term

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Setting the Scene for Change

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