Integration of Local Planners' and Scientists' Knowledge of

Consequences, Vulnerabilities, and AdaptationStrategies to Climate Change

Related Hazards

Seth Tuler and Tom Webler (SERI)Kirstin Dow, Nathan Kettle, Karly Miller (USC)

Jessica Whitehead (Sea Grant)

Sponsored by NOAA Climate Program Office, Sectoral Applications Research Program (SARP)

The context Adaptation barriers at all stages

Coastal communities engaged in hazard management, but not much climate change adaptation

Informational and understanding, planning, and decision-making constraints

Calls to develop planning tools and processes Facilitate local assessments Integrate climate science and local knowledge about

consequences, vulnerabilities, adaptation options, and priorities

What we are doing Designing and evaluating a facilitated process

Identify local climate stressors, consequences, vulnerabilities, and management options

Generate relevant scenarios

Elements Integration of local knowledge with scientific information Diagramming tool to highlight causal pathways Anchored in conceptual frameworks of hazards/risks and

vulnerability Reasonable demands on time and resources

We call it the

“Vulnerability and Consequences Adaptation Planning Scenarios” (VCAPS) Process

Sullivan’s Island, SC • Located just north of the Charleston

Harbor entrance.

• Approximately 8 sq. km.

• Approximately 2,000 residents.

• Development of Charleston Harbor has altered coastal processes along the coastline of Sullivan’s Island, causing both erosion and accretion.

• Island lies entirely within the 100-year floodplain.

• Flooding during exceptionally high tides.

• Expected relative sea level rise will exacerbate flooding from storms and tides.

Sullivan’s Island, SC Local officials interested in learning, but some

ambivalent about climate change.

No planning specifically for climate change impacts.

Community responses to hazards Coastal armoring Regulation (building codes,

impervious surface requirements, set-back requirements)

Community responses to hazards Land protection and beach renourishment

Accreted land shaded in green(97 acres)

Community responses to hazards Cooperative service agreements and plans Community education Update/improve infrastructure (raised

manholes, drainage flaps, replaced pipes)

VCAPS process Advance background interviews. 4 two-hour facilitated meetings.

9 people: Town staff, including Department heads, and Commission/Board members

Climate science presentation Collective decision about management concerns to discuss

(stormwater, wastewater) Diagramming scenarios linking management concerns, climate

stressors, consequences, and possible actions A lessons learned document.

VCAPS diagrams: Building blocks

Participants’ insights about vulnerability and adaptation There are opportunities for no/low regret strategies

and co-benefits.

Management strategies can have unintended consequences.

Coordination and strategies for working with state agencies are needed.

Potential impacts will be multi-faceted public health, property damage, financial costs, nuisance

Participants’ insights about planning

Some types of expertise are held by one person.

More could be done to share information across departments, staff, and officials.

Our insights about adaptation planning A conceptual framework structured thinking and

discussions. Causal model of hazards Vulnerability

Real-time diagramming supported understanding and sharing of information.

Self-generated scenarios were more credible. Local planners were interested in working with

consultants. Local planners hungry for climate science

relevant to local scale.

Benefits of the VCAPS process Inform vulnerability assessments and adaptation

planning Integrate local knowledge and climate science. A “bottom-up” approach

Advance local adaptation planning by engaging (skeptical) LGOs Meaningful local context An opportunity for group learning

About climate science A framework for thinking

Highlight multi-hazards approach, timing, and flexibility