Session 5, Multi-modal Logistics · Prepared by D Lenormand HO Marketing – Freighters September...
Transcript of Session 5, Multi-modal Logistics · Prepared by D Lenormand HO Marketing – Freighters September...
Prepared by D LenormandHO Marketing – FreightersSeptember 2014
Analysing the AIR EXPRESS business in China
Air Cargo Development Forum – Zhengzhou, China September 2014
SESSION 5 - Multi-modal Logistics
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
4.8% world FTK growth, driven by the strong traffic growth of emerging countries
Source: GMF 2013
20 year world annual FTK growth
Total trafficgrowth includes main deck and belly capacity
4.8 %
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032
Developed to Developed
Emerging to Emerging
Emerging to Developed
Developed to Emerging
Freight traffic growthFTKs (billions)
ForecastHistory
Future traffic with emerging economies will alter today’s freighter fleets and networks
80% of trafficin 2032
Growth Rate 2013-2032
5.3%
5.2%
6.2%
2.9%
Page 2
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
China express market is emerging very fastAir express freight traffic grew by 55% in 2012
*2012 data only until November
Chinese express market has been soaring in past years and is planned for significant growth in the future
Express traffic in China is at its early stages, equivalent to the 80s in the US
Mature US express marketExample FedEx
26% 23% 26%
57% 55%
-10%
20%
50%
80%
110%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Million China Express market volume
Total volume Growth rate
1978 – 1983
42%AAGR
Page 3
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
The Chinese domestic express market will boom
Source : Seabury, IATA, Airbus GMF
0
5
10
15
20
25 ExpressGeneral Cargo
PRC domestic air cargo traffic – 6.5% pa 2012 - 2032 (FTK billions)
History
Chinese domestic express will thrive like the US integrator markets of the 1980s and 1990s
Forecast
A booming Chinese express market will create the demand for small and mid-size freighters
Chinese domestic express market will grow at 11% year on year
Page 4
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
The increasing importance of express & “special care freight”: Logistics - B2B, B2C, E-commerce & C2C
Proportion of special, express and general cargo
63%
11%
25%
54%
16%
30%
25%
40%
35%
1997 2003 2009 2015
general
express
“special care”
82%
13%4.5%
Data source: IATA
Page 5
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Intermodal solutions may varyRoad Feeder Services are popular in Europe
General cargo can cover long distance using trucks
FRA
MXP
VIE
WAW
SOF
CPH
CDGBRU
LYS
ZRH
GVAINN
MUC
HAJHAM
SXF
PRG
STR
DUS
MRS GOA
MPL
CFE VCEBLQ
FLRFCO
LJU
BUD
GOT
OSL
BCN
TLS
ALCATH
BEG
BIO
BOD
BTS
WRO
OTP
GDN
DBV
ARN
MAD
KTW
KRK
MSQ
NCE PSA
POZ
RIX
SKP
SPU
SVG
SKG
TSR
TIA
VLC
VNO
ZAG
LHR
EMA
Typical RFS for general cargo: 12H ~ 1 000Km, to most of Europe
Page 6
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Typical overnight express shipment cycle limits truck covering out of the hub
Ultimate pick-up time (latest collection) and morning delivery times limits the use of trucks for Express RFS services
Maximum road services is less that 4 hours drive ie @300km
23:30 – 02:00AMHub sorting time
18:30Collection
09:00Delivery time
Max. 4 hours drive Max. 4 hours drive
Page 7
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Over night express trucking is less than 4 hours @300kilometers
Typical sub-hub express trucking operations for next day delivery
FRA
MXP
VIE
WAW
SOF
CPH
CDG
BRU
LYS
ZRH
GVAINN
MUC
HAJHAM
SXF
PRG
STR
DUS
MRS GOA
MPL
CFEVCEBLQ
FLRFCO
LJU
BUD
GOT
OSL
BCN
TLS
ALCATH
BEGBIO
BOD
BTS
WRO
OTP
GDN
DBV
ARN
MAD
KTW
KRK
MSQ
NCE PSA
POZ
RIX
SKP
SPU
SVG
SKG
TSR
TIA
VLC
VNO
ZAG
LHR
EMA
LEJ
Aircraft remains a need to link the sub hubs to the main hub The DHL European sub hub system
Page 8
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
China and the US-East Coast: Similar size, similar population concentration
FDX Hub
UPS Hub
~25% of US populationand GDP
~55% of US population and
GDP
~80% of Chinese population and GDP
2000 km
Trucks and aircraft are complementary to serve a concentrated population.However air remains the only solution for longer distance services
(55% ~175mio)
(80% ~ 1 040mio)
2000 km
Page 9
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Air route structure: China Postal and SF Express, a need for a multi modal approach to cover the country
Page 10
NKG
PEK
SHA
XMN
FOCTPE
SZX
CANNNG
WUH
CSX
SHE
TNACGO
CGQ
SJW
CTU
ICN KIX
URC
HGH
YNT
YNZWEF
DLCTSN
HKG
CKG
KMG
XIYNRT
HRB
TAO
China Postal network: A hub in NKG
SZX
HGH
WUX
PEK
SHA
WEF
WUH
SHE
CTU
CAN
DLC
SF Express network: Still a route network
China Postal: A hub approach with a base in NanjingSF Express (still) a route approach out of Shenzhen
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Optimising main deck volume usage with containers under time constraint – Probably on board trucks as well
Express AAX container 88/96/125” side by side
Typical cargo pallet built to best contour - 96/96/125” side by side
Page 11
(A300-600F shown) (A330-200F shown)
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Matching EXPRESS market expectations
Total quality is the priority in Express markets
• On-time performance is the primary driver
• Continuity of service is a must to secure customer loyalty
• Air links remain a prime player due to time constraints
• However multi-modal is the way to ensure the ‘last mile’
• Continuity in capacity (containers) as well to ensure quality
Page 12
Thank you!
谢谢各位!