Session 1: Protecng the ASEAN Community from Evolving ... · Session 1: Protecng the ASEAN...

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Session 1: Protec.ng the ASEAN Community from Evolving Poli.cal-Security Challenges ASEAN and Japan Should Take a Firmer Stand to Build a Rule-based Order Masashi Nishihara President Research Institute for Peace and Security Tokyo

Transcript of Session 1: Protecng the ASEAN Community from Evolving ... · Session 1: Protecng the ASEAN...

Page 1: Session 1: Protecng the ASEAN Community from Evolving ... · Session 1: Protecng the ASEAN Community from Evolving Polical-Security Challenges ASEAN and Japan Should Take a Firmer

Session1:Protec.ngtheASEANCommunity fromEvolvingPoli.cal-SecurityChallenges

ASEAN and Japan Should Take a Firmer

Stand to Build a Rule-based Order

Masashi Nishihara President

Research Institute for Peace and Security Tokyo

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Contents 1SouthChinaSeaToday2China’sStrategy3WhatCanBeDoneToHedgeChina?　a.ASEAN’sRole　b.TheUnitedStates’Role　c.Japan’sRole4ASEANattheCenteroftheIndo-PacificOcean

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1The South China Sea Today ChinaignoresTheHaguedecisionTheASEAN-ChinaCOCFrameworkisnotonterritorialresolu.onsChina’smilitaryaircraTwithfourairbasesChinacri.calofUSFONOVietnamandChinacri.calofeachother’sac.vi.es(militaryandoildrilling)

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２　China’s Strategy To prevent ASEAN’s unity To achieve hegemony over and beyond the SC Sea To drive wedge between Japan and the US To drive US forces from the 2nd Island Chain To achieve hegemony in western Pacific and Indian Ocean(One Belt One Road)

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　China’s Airbase at Mischief Reef

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3 What Can Be Done to Hedge China?

3aASEAN’sRoleASEANshouldretainamul.lateralapproach

ASEANshouldconsiderformingaSouthChinaSeagroupASEANshouldmaintainclose.eswiththeUSanditsregionalpartners

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3WhatCanBeDonetoHedgeChina? 3bTheUnitedStates’RoleAstrongJapan-USAllianceisakeytoIndo-PacificsecurityAstrongerJapan-Philippines-USalliancewouldbecrucialforafavorablebalanceofpowerUSshouldcon.nueitsFONOintheSCSeaUSshouldweigh.eswithAustraliaandIndia

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Prime Minister Abe and President Trump

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Japan-Philippines Bond

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3WhatCanBeDonetoHedgeChina? 3cJapan’sRolePrimeMinisterAbehasaglobaloutlookinhisdiploma.cac.vi.esHeisac.veinregionalleadership,whichisfillingthegapcreatedbytheperceived　 decliningUSroleJapanshouldkeepthealliancewithUSendurableforIndo-Pacificsecurity

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3 What Can Be Done to Hedge China? 3aJapan’sRole(con.nued)ASEANisatthegeographicalcenterofIndo-PacificregionJapanshouldworkforarule-basedorderJapanshouldsupportASEAN’s“capacity-building”andbalancingactJapanshouldencourageASEANtojoinTPP

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Japan's Sea Lines

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Indo-Pacific region

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Thank you very much


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