SESSION 1: CLIMATE SMART AGRICULTURE€¦ · Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is an approach that...

SESSION 1: CLIMATE SMART AGRICULTURE

Silver lining on a dark cloud

Louw PienaarCape Town2019/06/27

© Western Cape Government 2012 |

STRUCTURE

AYAF CONFERENCE

SETTING THE SCENE: WHY IS CLIMATE CHANGE SO IMPORTANT?

THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

WESTERN CAPE DROUGHT IMPACT

CONSERVATION AGRICULTURE 20-YEAR TRIAL

INITIATIVES TO REDUCE CARBON

RESOURCES & HANDOVER TO PANEL MEMBERS TO ADD TO THE

DISCUSSION


AFRICA AND AGRICULTURE: MEGA TRENDS

AYAF CONFERENCE

1) Rural Population Growth & Migration

10.8 billion towards 2100 (+3.2 billion)

Africa will contribute 2.7 billion (UN, 2019)

60% of Africa’s labour force aged 15 – 34

375 million youth are expected to reach working age by 2035

2) Urbanisation, income growth, changing diets and

increased reliance on food imports

3) Changing farm structures, ownership and land scarcity

4) Food price volatility

5) Climate Change and Water Scarcity

6) Labour force diversification

Economic transformation towards off-farm employment

Jayne, Yeboah & Henry; 2017


WHY IS CLIMATE CHANGE SO IMPORTANT

AYAF CONFERENCE

WORLD: Natural disasters from 1900 – 2019 (CRED, 2019)

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Heat + Cold waves Drought Fire Total Cost


WHY IS CLIMATE CHANGE SO IMPORTANT

AYAF CONFERENCE

AFRICA: Natural disasters from 1900 – 2019 (CRED, 2019)

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Floods Disease+Pests Other Storms Drought Heat + Cold waves Total Cost

2010-2018:

Floods: 257

Disease + pests: 153

Storms: 72

Drought: 57

Total Costs: USD 1.5 trillion

Frequency + Severity


CLIMATE SMART AGRICULURE

AYAF CONFERENCE

Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is an approach that helps to guide actions needed

to transform and reorient agricultural systems to effectively support development and

ensure food security in a changing climate.

Developing sustainable agricultural strategies for food security under climate change

Objectives:

1) Sustainably increasing agricultural productivity and incomes

2) Adapting and building resilience to climate change

3) Reducing and/or removing greenhouse gas emissions

Agriculture contributes

to emissions

Agriculture is particularly

exposed to risk

associated with

changing climate

THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

ON AGRICULTURE


WESTERN CAPE DROUGHT

AYAF CONFERENCE


• Employment: 2.4 million people

• Agriculture 9.21%

• Agri Processing 5.35%

CONTEXT: AGRICULTURE’S CONTRIBUTION

• Population: 6.4 million [1.8 million HH’s]

• Economy: R529 billion GVA

• Agriculture 3.93%

• Agri Processing 6.17%

Agriculture in the Western Cape Economy

AYAF CONFERENCE

> 10%

> 14%

• Exports: R121 billion

• Agri + Processing 52.91%

Labour-intensive, export sectors


CAPE TOWN DAMS INFLOW

AYAF CONFERENCE


WESTERN CAPE MAJOR DAMS

AYAF CONFERENCE

100%

0%


WATER RESTRICTIONS

AYAF CONFERENCESource: Ziervogel, 2018


ECONOMIC IMPACT

AYAF CONFERENCE

Industry

Total

Production

2016/17 (T)

Estimated

Total Production

2017/18 (T)

Drop in

Production

(%)

GVA Shock

2016/17 vs

2017/18

(R million)

Employment

losses

Wine Grapes 1 599 728 1 279 782 -20.0 -591.21 -2 809

Table Grapes 186 772 153 000 -18.1 -787.36 -4 019

Pome Fruit 1 376 279 1 256 773 -8.7 -898.26 -9 635

Stone Fruit 319 424 293 288 -8.2 -458.26 -2 070

Citrus 311 955 287 887 -7.7 -259.24 -1 280

Alternative Fruit* 7 693 7 037 -8.5 -36.35 -220

Major Vegetables** 1 104 580 881 280 -20.2 -78.73 -2 716

Grains*** 1 558 200 986 928 -36.7 -2 812.97 -7 482

Total 6 464 630 5 145 975 -20.4 -5 922.37 -30 230

Source: Own Calculations, 2018


TRACKING EMPLOYMENT

AYAF CONFERENCE

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Total Employment based on multipliers:195 359:191 340


MOST RECENT GDP NUMBERS: RSA AGRICULTURE

AYAF CONFERENCE

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Agriculture, Forestry & Fisheries: Seasonally Adjusted % Change

Global Financial Crises

2015/16 Drought Summer Grains

WC Drought+ Others

The Western Cape make up 30% of the National GDP for Agriculture

DAFF; 2019


CONSERVATION AGRICULTURE: 20-YEAR TRIAL

AYAF CONFERENCE

1) Minimum soil disturbance of the soil

2) Permanent year-round soil cover

3) Sound crop rotations and/or diversity of crop species

Holistic system and integration of all three, adapted to specific circumstances

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W+Medics W+Medics_Clover+Canola W+Medics+Canola

W+Medics_clover Wheat Annual Rainfall

WCDOA-Johann Strauss; 2018


REDUCING CARBON EMISSIONS

AYAF CONFERENCE

In 2014 our Department set out to calculate the carbon emissions of our 7 research

farms (7 956 hectares)

• Starting point is measuring emissions

• Implement strategy to reduce

• Keep track over time

Results: Overall Footprint Progress

Enteric

fermentati

on

62%

Electricity

14%

Manure

manage

ment

12%

Office

and

domestic

waste

9%

Agro-

chemicals

2%

Mobile

fuel

1%Stationary

fuel

0%Organic

waste to

compost

0%

51 889 47 007

45 624

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2015/16 2016/17 2017/18

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ne

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O2 E

qu

iva

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tsOrganic waste to compost

Stationary fuel

Mobile fuel

Agro-chemicals

Office and domestic waste

Manure management

Electricity

Enteric fermentation

Total

Barends-Jones; 2018


RESOURCES

AYAF CONFERENCE

SMART-Agri Plan (http://www.elsenburg.com/content/smartagri)

GREEN-AGRI portal (http://www.greenagri.org.za/)

Drought Policy Brief (http://www.greenagri.org.za/blog/drought-policy-

brief-2018/)

Langgewens Research Trial Publications (e-mail)

Olifants River Drought Impact Assement (e-mail)

The real cost of going green: Carbon Tax (e-mail)

Carbon Footprint of Departmental Research Farms (e-mail)

[email protected]

http://www.elsenburg.com/content/smartagri

http://www.greenagri.org.za/

http://www.greenagri.org.za/blog/drought-policy-brief-2018/

Tel: Fax:

www.elsenburg.com

Contact Us

Louw Pienaar

[email protected]

www.elsenburg.com

SESSION 1: CLIMATE SMART AGRICULTURE€¦ · Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is an approach that...

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