Session 1 3 ORourke
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Transcript of Session 1 3 ORourke
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Presentation to National Academy of SciencesCommittee on Naval Engineering in the 21 Centuryst
Some Potential Technology Implications of the Navy’s Future
Ronald O’RourkeCongressional Research Service
National Academy of Sciences2100 C St., NW, Washington, DC
January 13, 2010
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Disclaimer
— These views are my own and do not necessarily reflect
the views of CRS, LoC, or Congress
Introduction – my background
— CRS naval issues analyst since 1984
— Role of CRS
— Responsible for tracking Navy strategy, plans,programs, budgets, technology, industrial base, and
related issues, particularly ship acquisition
— Reports, briefings, testimony for Congress
— Magazine/journal articles and presentations to
government, industry, and academic audiences
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Outline
— Some potential technology implications of
— Navy’s future operating environment
— future Navy operations
— Navy’s future resource situation
— Note: some potential implications
— not intended as a comprehensive listing
— no particular order
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Navy’s future operating environment
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Navy’s future operating environment
— Advanced above-surface anti-access weapons,
including:— ASBMs (China reportedly developing)— advanced ASCMs— advanced SAMs— advanced tactical aircraft
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Navy’s future operating environment
— Advanced below-surface anti-access weapons,
including:— modern submarines— wake-homing torpedoes— modern (as well as older) mines
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Navy’s future operating environment
— Advanced below-surface anti-access weapons,
including:— modern submarines— wake-homing torpedoes— modern (as well as older) mines
— Technologies for a distributed, sensor-intensive (vs.platform-intensive) approach to ASW
— Anti-torpedo torpedo (ATT) to counter wake homers— Soft-kill options against wake-homers— Improved MCM technologies, particularly for
— faster MCM— improved MCM in very shallow water/surf zone
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Navy’s future operating environment
— Vulnerability of, or uncertain access to, regional land
bases
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Navy’s future operating environment
— Vulnerability of, or uncertain access to, regional land
bases
— Technologies for reducing reliance on regional landbases for fuel, supplies, and repairing battle damage— ships with increased fuel and supplies
— ships with reduced fuel use and smaller crews— integrated electric drive— technologies to reduce crew size
— nuclear power for surface ships other than CVNs— ships with greater survivability
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Navy’s future operating environment
— Cyberwarfare and ASAT
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Navy’s future operating environment
— Cyberwarfare and ASAT
— Improved defensive and perhaps offensive cyberwarfarecapabilities organic to the fleet
— Ability to continue operating effectively if systems and
networks are degraded or eliminated by cyber attackand/or ASAT— redundancy— rapid reconstitution— capabilities for stand-alone operations
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Navy’s future operating environment
— Possible adversary use of nuclear weapons
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Navy’s future operating environment
— Possible adversary use of nuclear weapons
— Ships, aircraft, and systems hardened against nuclear-weapon effects such as EMP, thermal, overpressure
— Shipboard citadels and decontamination systems
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Navy’s future operating environment
— Terrorist and irregular-warfare threats to forward-
deployed Navy ships
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Navy’s future operating environment
— Terrorist and irregular-warfare threats to forward-
deployed Navy ships
— Improved technologies for detecting and counteringshore-based ASCMs, smaller aircraft, small boats, mini-subs, mines, swimmers, rockets, and mortars
— lethal and non-lethal weapons for countering smallboats
— sensors, barriers, and lethal and non-lethalweapons for countering swimmers
— sensors and weapons for cost-effectively
countering rockets and mortars— topside equipment that can withstand attacks by
rockets and mortars
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Navy’s future operating environment
— Policymaker focus on energy use and climate change
— recently announced Navy goals
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Navy’s future operating environment
— Policymaker focus on energy use and climate change
— recently announced Navy goals
— Technologies for reducing Navy’s dependence onpetroleum-based fuel, and for moving Navy toward goalof carbon-neutral operations at sea
— wider use of features for improving hydrodynamicperformance (e.g., bow bulbs, stern flaps, hullcoatings)— effective, environmentally friendly coatings
— hybrid electric drive and integrated electric drive
— higher-efficiency gas turbines— fuel cells— more energy-efficient shipboard equipment— biofuels— nuclear power for surface ships other than CVNs
— kite-assisted propulsion
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Future Navy operations
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Future Navy operations
— Possibly operating outside range of anti-access
weapons
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Future Navy operations
— Possibly operating outside range of anti-access
weapons
— Longer-ranged manned aircraft and UAVs/UCAVs— e.g., UCAS-N
— Longer-ranged strike/NSFS weapons— e.g., rail gun for NSFS
— Off-board sensors and networking for longer-rangedsurveillance, targeting, and damage assessment
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Future Navy operations
— Expanding sea-based BMD operations
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Future Navy operations
— Expanding sea-based BMD operations
— Defense against Chinese ASBMs— improved shipboard radars and other sensors— networking with off-board radars— DEWs, particularly lasers
— terminal-phase defense against ASBMs— soft-kill options for countering ASBMs
— European BMD operations— Integration with land-based European BMD
systems— SM-3 Block IIB
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Future Navy operations
— Irregular warfare and counter-terrorism operations
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Future Navy operations
— Irregular warfare and counter-terrorism operations
— Improved ship-based ISR capabilities, including UAVs— persistent ISR— UAVs on submarines
— Improved expeditionary EW, SIGINT, counter-IED,EOD, and riverine capabilities
— Fast-to-target, low-collateral-damage strike weapons
— Improved capabilities for covertly inserting andrecovering SOF— e.g., ASDS follow-on
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Future Navy operations
— Anti-piracy operations
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Future Navy operations
— Anti-piracy operations
— Improved ISR capabilities— persistent— improved discrimination of pirates from non-pirates— lower cost
— Non-lethal weapons for countering pirates
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Future Navy operations
— Partner capacity-building operations
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Future Navy operations
— Partner capacity-building operations
— Improved facilities for shipboard education and training— built into ships— modular and portable
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Future Navy operations
— Humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR)
operations
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Future Navy operations
— Humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR)
operations
— Improved ship-to-shore transfer of HADR-relatedequipment and supplies
— Equipment for using ships to provide emergency power ashore
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Future Navy operations
— Increased surface-ship operations in the Arctic
— diminishment of Arctic sea ice
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Future Navy operations
— Increased surface-ship operations in the Arctic
— diminishment of Arctic sea ice
— ships with ice-strengthened hulls
— systems and components designed to operate in
extreme cold
— aircraft fuel for operations in extreme cold
— communication and navigation systems for supporting
high-latitude operations
— Arctic search and rescue capabilities— e.g., for responding to a large cruise ship in distress
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Navy’s future resource situation
— Ship and aircraft procurement affordability
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Navy’s future resource situation
— Ship and aircraft procurement affordability
— Greater use of common hulls/airframes, systems, andcomponents
— Improved design for producibility/production engineering
— Improved materials
— Improved construction processes and methods— e.g., NSRP
— Technologies to reduce size of ship radars andintegrated electric drive systems
— Technologies to reduce ship crew size
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Navy’s future resource situation
— Reduced ship and aircraft procurement rates
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Navy’s future resource situation
— Reduced ship and aircraft procurement rates
— Longer ship and aircraft service lives— more-rugged construction/more-durable materials— greater growth margins— open-architecture combat systems and physical
open architecture to facilitate modernizationover long lives— improved condition tracking and assessment
— Greater percentage of ship life spent on deployment— more-rugged construction/more durable materials
— features facilitating long-duration deploymentswith crew rotation (aka Sea Swap) and/or multiplecrewing
— Increased use of UVs to extend ship capabilities
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Navy’s future resource situation
— O&S costs crowding out funding for procurement
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Navy’s future resource situation
— O&S costs crowding out funding for procurement
— Ships with reduced crew sizes
— Ships and aircraft with open-architecture combatsystems and physical open architecture to reduce life-
cycle modernization costs
— Ships and aircraft with improved materials to reducelife-cycle maintenance costs
— Increased use of UVs to as substitutes for mannedplatforms
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Thank you