Sess2 3 kleinwechter _th1_abs032
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Transcript of Sess2 3 kleinwechter _th1_abs032
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AFRICAN POTATO ASSOCATION CONFERENCE 2013
Naivasha, Kenya, June 30 – July 4, 2013
Ex-ante Evaluation of Improved Potato Varieties for Sub-Saharan
AfricaUlrich Kleinwechter, Guy Hareau, Merideth Bonierbale,
Manuel Gastelo and Dieudonne HarahagazweInternational Potato Center (CIP)
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Outline
1. Introduction2. Methodology: The IMPACT model3. Scenario: Improved potato varieties for SSA4. Results5. Conclusions
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1. Introduction
• Strong expansion of potato production and consumption in SSA (Low et al., 2007)
• Multiple and important roles in local food systems• Increase food availability and aggregate efficiency of
food systems• Short vegetation cycle and suitability to marginal environment
• Provision of income generation opportunities • Cash crop and processing
• Grown in regions with high incidence of poverty, undernutrition and food insecurity and high population density
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1. Introduction
• Steady but slow yield growth in the past, main production increases from area expansions
• High potential of technological innovations to increase productivity• Potentially high returns on investment and strong impacts on poverty
and hunger (Anderson et al. 2010)
Technological improvements in potatoes “an underexploited resource” (Alexandratos, 1997)
• Ongoing breeding efforts by CIP and NARS in the region• What potential impacts can be expected from future
improvement of potato varieties for SSA?
Ex-ante assessment of potential impacts using an agricultural sector simulation model
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2. Methodology: The IMPACT model
• Integrated modeling framework which combines an economic global agricultural sector model with a water simulation model• Food module
• Projections of agricultural production, demand, trade flows and prices on a regional scale (countries or aggregates)
• Partial-equilibrium model• 40 agricultural commodities• 155 regions and 126 water basins, which combine into 281 “food
production units” (FPUs)• Water module
• Simulation of water availability for agriculture and other uses• Multi-period model: 2000-2050
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2. Methodology: The IMPACT model
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2. Methodology: The IMPACT model
• Agricultural production depicted by area and yield functions:
Yield shifterIntegration of new technologies via shifters in yield functions
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3. Scenario- Description of the technology
• Improved potato varieties for SSA• Higher yield potential• Late-blight and virus resistance• Heat tolerance• Processing quality
• 30% higher yields• Nine target countries• Total investment: 9.8m US$ (4.29m NPV,
2000 constant prices)• Project duration: 12 years Source: Theisen and Thiele (2008).
EthiopiaUganda
Rwanda
Burundi
DR Congo
Kenya
Tanzania
MozambiqueMalawi
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3. Scenario- Project description and cost
Activity Description Output Duration Total cost1. Breeding at CIP
One breeding cycle, starting from LBHT population
Advanced clones with improved traits
4 years 3.5m US$
2. Breeding and seed multiplication at NARS
Further selection, seed multiplication
Improved potato varieties, potato seeds for dissemination
4 years 3.5m US$
3. Dissemination Dissemination of potato seeds, extension
New varieties adopted by farmers
4 years 2.1m US$
Total 12 years 9.1m US$
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3. Scenario - Dissemination and adoption
• Release: 2020• Four tier model of adoption
• Very low: 5% after 10 years (MLW, MOZ)• Low: 10% (DRC,TZA)• Middle: 20% (BUR, ETH, KEN, UGA)• High: 30% (RWA)
• Analysis of three adoption cases• “High”: as above• “Medium”: 2/3 of “high”• “Low”: 1/3 of “high”
0
20
40
60
80
100
% o
f cul
tivat
ed a
rea
High adoption
Traditional varieties Improved varieties
0
20
40
60
80
100
% o
f cul
tivat
ed a
rea
Low adoption
Traditional varieties Improved varieties
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0200400600800
100012001400160018002000
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
Kenya
Traditional (High adoption) Improved (High adoption)
Tota
l sup
ply
of p
otat
oes
[100
0 m
t]4. Results- Production
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4. Results- Production
Cha
nge
agai
nst b
asel
ine
[%]
0123456789
10Total potato supply in target countries, 2050
Low adoption Medium adoption High adoption
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4. Results - Prices
-0.14
-0.12
-0.1
-0.08
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0
Potato Sweet potato Cassava Rice Wheat
World market prices of selected commodities, 2050
Low adoption Medium adoption High adoption
Cha
nge
agai
nst b
asel
ine
[%]
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4. Results - Consumption
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12Per-capita potato consumption, 2050
Low adoption Medium adoption High adoption
Cha
nge
agai
nst b
asel
ine
[% ]
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4. Results - Economic welfare
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0Net welfare changes
Low adoption Medium adoption High adoption
NP
V
[m U
S$
at 2
000
cons
tant
pric
es]
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4. Results - Returns on investment
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.8
IRR
Low adoption Medium adoption High adoption
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4. Results - Global effects
-800-600-400-200
0200400600800
10001200
∆ Producer surplus ∆ Consumer surplus ∆ Net welfare Net benefits
Welfare and global benefits
Low adoption Medium adoption High adoption
NP
V
[m U
S$
at 2
000
cons
tant
pric
es]
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5. Conclusions and outlook
• Positive production impacts in target countries• Positive net welfare effects and high ROI in target
countries • Comparable with findings from previous impact
evaluations of improved varieties• Investment in improved potato varieties justified from
economic point of view• Global analysis
• Consumers benefit • Producers lose • Positive net benefit
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5. Conclusions and outlook
• Pivotal role of adoption levels• Importance of market acceptance and sufficiently good
seed systems for quick dissemination and adoption• Complementary investments in seed systems
• Showcase application of IMPACT modeling framework for ex-ante assessment of agricultural technologies
• Advantages• Global geographic coverage, comprehensive commodity
coverage• Capture complex market-mediated interactions across
commodities and countries• Scope for improvement:
• Assumptions on costs, adoption and dissemination• Combination of IMPACT with biophysical modeling tools
(crop models, pest and disease models)• Improvement of baseline data (FAO!)
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Thank you for your
attention!
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References
Alexandratos, N. (1997). World agriculture: towards 2010 : an FAO study. Chichester, New York, Brisbane: Wiley.
Anderson, P., Barker, I., Best, S., Bonierbale, M., Crissman, C., Hareau, G., & Leon Velarde, C. (2010). Importance of roots and tubers in the world food system; digging up the evidence. Unpublished manuscript, Lima, Peru, International Potato Center (CIP).
Low, J., Barker, I., Bonierbale, M., Crissman, C., Forbes, G., Lemaga, B., & Priou, S. (2007). Emerging trends and advances in potato research relevant to defining the way forward for the potato sector in Sub-Saharan Africa. African Potato Association Conference Proceedings, Vol . 7 (pp. 1-17). Alexandria, Egypt.
FAO. (2012). FAOSTAT database.Theisen, K., & Thiele, G. (2008). Implementing CIP’s Vision: Impact targeting.
Lima, Peru.