September Dispatch - The Dollar Vigilante...David Rockefeller wrote in his memoirs in 2003, "Some...

September Dispatch

1 www.DollarVigilante.com

Contents

A Letter from the Editors

3

The Memory Hole Redmond Weissenberger

4

Vigilante’s View Jeff Berwick

5

How to Put Your Canadian RRSP Into Gold Bullion Jeff Berwick

14

Update on Simply Natural Farm Investment Jeff Berwick

17

TDV Report Ed Bugos

TDV’s monthly gold and stock analysis 19

TDV Groups: Tokyo Luis Fernando Mises

28

In Closing... Penn Jillette

39


A Letter from the Editors

In this issue, we examine the end of the Jubilee Year and the trends surrounding it. As the year ends, we are approaching a time when many globalist themes will begin to play out more aggressively. Jeff’s explanation in the View goes into some detail on the trends that have developed over this Jubilee Year, which in fact have built on Shemitah 2015. During Shemitah, we saw a determination to create market volatility and expand military actions. Jubilee Year was an endless extension of these negative themes. Tensions with Russia and China developed further and the Middle East, especially Syria, became more dangerous and wartorn. From an economic standpoint, Jeff shows us that many trends either begin or end around October 12, 2016 —as predicted by our Jubilee analysis. These are trigger mechanisms that create more industrial vitality among developing countries while damping the prospects of developed nations, especially in Europe and North America. The combination of expanding military tension and outright war along with economic manipulations will soon flower into fullfledged internationalism. Unfortunately, as Jeff points out, this will not be an easy, evolutionary process, but a brutal series of events that will end badly for most. This is an elite manipulation that shapes economic and military events, but also can be seen in politics, especially in the US presidential race. Redmond points this out in The Memory Hole where he explains as others have noted, that the current election is one of the strangest and least appealing inmemory. Hillary is certainly difficult to support, but Trump seems increasingly questionable as well. For instance, he seems to be drawing closer to the Pentagon and has also made statements attacking themedia. One could forgive him for attacking the mainstream media, but he seems to lump in the alternative sources as well. Given the chaotic economic and sociopolitical challenges we’re faced with, Jeff’s article, “How to Put Your Canadian RRSP Into Gold Bullion,” comes as a timely reminder for our Canadian readers. When monopoly central bank fiat money finally achieves its full valuation of nothing at all gold and silver will provide an alternative to insolvency. That’s an understanding that we wish the Japanese possessed, but don’t seem to according to a fascinating interview in this issue between Luis Mises and Jon Southurst. Jon has spent years in Japan and his discussion of the Japanese lifestyle and the evolution of that country in the 21st century touches on a number of important points. The Keynesian economic policies applied by the Japanese government simply don’t work and as he points out, they are actually making a bad situation worse. Of course our brilliant Senior Analyst Ed Bugos understands the incompetence and failure of Keynesian remedies and he’s made terrific profits by betting against them. As the end of the year approaches, increased opportunities present themselves to Ed, in part because of increased volatility. For the sake of your wallet, you’ll want to absorb what he’s saying and make note of his predictions. Yours in liberty!


The Memory Hole

Redmond Weissenberger

We’re about 50 days removed from election day in the good ole USSA, and for those of us who like a good show, that’s 50 days too much. The craziness of this election cycle is unparalleled. Who would have thought that the Dems would put forward a dying woman as their candidate for President? Or that the Republicans would nominate a Blist reality TV star. Or that the mainstream media would ever have the ability to cover an election.

From Donald Trump coming from nowhere to Hillary Clinton falling apart just as she is reaching the election date, we are being presented campaign narratives that are almost biblical. Imagine: In the Clintons lifetime of ruthless lust for power Hillary ends up dying just as she gets super close to the ring of Sauron. Or one of New York City’s icons, one of the richest men in America, somehow extends his power beyond his bank account to the Oval Office. Some of these storylines are old fare, though the MSM would have you believe they are. Presidents with debilitating illnesses covered up are nothing new. Woodrow Wilson suffered a severe stroke that left him incapacitated for the final two years of his presidency. Franklin D. Roosevelt had polio that left him wheelchair bound. John F. Kennedy kept Addison’s disease from the public. Ronald Reagan had Alzheimer's. Who knows what other diseases affected presidents before the age of information. Reagan has a lot in common with Trump, media celebrities that decided to enter politics, and his attempted assassin John Hinckley was just paroled. And Hinckley’s family has links to the Bush clan. I mean, this cycle has also had more assassination narratives than… well, any election in memory. In Bill Maher’s notsothinly veiled suggestion that someone take out Trump we see that this election has devolved into farce. Even the most talented and imaginative minds couldn’t write this stuff. I wouldn’t dare predict what will fill the next 50 days, but it certainly promises to be 50 days like no other. And then, the Trump presidency…


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Ring

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Ring

Vigilante’s View

Jeff Berwick

As Redmond pointed out just above, this is by far the most unique US election cycle in history. Why is it getting so extreme? It’s getting so extreme because we are nearing the end of the current system… and as it nears, everything will get crazier and crazier. One of my favorite writers, H. L. Mencken stated it perfectly in 1920 when he said, “As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” That’s not to say that Donald Trump is a downright moron. You don’t stay a billionaire (he was born into most of his money) by being a total fool. But he is certainly devoid of principles. His opinion on everything is based almost solely on his feelings toward the topic and perhaps some experiences he may have had. This is the sign of an unwise man. A wise man is grounded in principle. And the only moral principle that can be held is one of nonaggression against others. While some may ask, “Should we build a wall to keep Mexicans out?” his answer changes based on countless reasons. But, the only answer should be more questions. Like, “Who do you mean by ‘we’?” or “Will the funds used to build the wall come from theft/extortion (aka taxation)?” And, if so, the answer has to always be no. Those who seek to control people and run the world want to make sure that people forget about principle. The government indoctrination camps (schools) and even universities now try to ensure people only think of how they “feel” about something, not what is right or wrong. And those same people have not stopped in their goal. We pointed that out in our article, “Brzezinski’s Ruse: American Empire is Dead”, that he had not given up on his globalist dream. They are expanding it. David Rockefeller wrote in his memoirs in 2003, "Some even believe we are part of a Secret Cabal working Against the best interests of the United States, characterizing my family and me as 'internationalists' and of conspiring with others around the world to build a more integrated Global political and economic structure One World, if you will. If that is the charge, I stand guilty, and I am proud of it." And it was just this week that Barack O’Bomber said the following at the United Nations:

“Sometimes I’m criticized in my own country for professing a belief in international norms and multilateral institutions. But I am convinced that in the long run, giving up some freedom of


https://dollarvigilante.com/blog/2016/09/02/brzezinskis-ruse-american-empire-dead-china-russia-take.html

https://dollarvigilante.com/blog/2016/09/02/brzezinskis-ruse-american-empire-dead-china-russia-take.html

action — not giving up our ability to protect ourselves or pursue our core interests, but binding ourselves to international rules over the long term — enhances our security.”

This is nearly identical to the speech given by George H.W. Bush in 1991:

“We have before us the opportunity to forge for ourselves and for future generations a New World Order , a world where the rule of law, not the rule of the jungle, governs the conduct of nations. When we are successful, and we Will be, we have a real chance at this New World Order, an order in which a credible United Nations can use its "peacekeeping" role to fulfill the promise and Vision of the U.N.'s founders.”

This is a long term agenda that continues to move forward. Could Donald Trump actually be a stumbling block in its progress? It’s doubtful, and for many reasons. First, Donald Trump is by no way an “outsider”. He has been good friends with the Clinton family for decades. In that sense, it really shows how setup these elections are when it always seems to come down to close friends or even blood relatives running against each other. I am still of the belief that they will ensure Hillary Clinton wins, no matter what. Even the coopting of the Libertarian Party, I believe, was to help ensure a Hillary win. The only question is, however, will she even make it alive to the election. There are already quite reasonable conspiracy theories making the rounds that she is already dead. There’s even a theory that some “good guys” in the US government have taken her out. Even if those turn out to be completely untrue there is still the very real question of her health. In some ways watching her cough, gag, have seizures and collapse in public makes me wonder if there isn’t even a supernatural element to what is happening. As Redmond pointed out, Hillary is the culmination of decades (if not centuries) of work by very evil people… many of whom all appear to be close to dying. Henry Kissinger is a walking corpse, as is David Rockefeller. And even people like George Soros and Brzezinski appear to be nearing the end of their time here. And to have this all seeming to come to a head right near the end of the Jubilee Year certainly makes one wonder. But we do also have to keep in mind that the real powers that be are in the shadows. As Supreme Court Justice, Felix Frankfurter, said in 1952, "The Real Rulers in Washington are Invisible, and exercise Power from behind the scenes." But, apparently at least one person is still sure that Hillary will survive and win the upcoming election… George Soros.


AS JUBILEE YEAR ENDS, THE CHAOS EXPANDS George Soros had a controversial interview recently, telling Bloomberg that Western Civilization was doomed and that Donald Trump would win the “general election”. And yet, Soros said that Hillary Clinton’s win is already a “done deal.” It sounded as if Soros was promoting a manipulated election. But actually this didn’t happen. The recording was dubbed and Soros actually said that Trump would lose the election. This trickery fits into the larger chaotic misdirection of Jubilee Year 2016. The idea is to whip people up and create a chaotic atmosphere throughout the West and even the world. People are being set against each other via economic, military and political chaos. In fact, we’re supposed to believe that what’s occurring in the markets and the world is the result of marketplace interactions themselves. But as we’ve shown clearly for two years now via Shemitah and Jubilee analysis, this is not the case. In the summary of Jubilee Year below, we’ll show clearly how a number of negative trends are coming to a head to create even worse outcomes. As we move forward into 2017, this will doubtless continue and chaos will expand. It’s not coincidence, it’s planned. So please pay attention. We’re explaining the trends below from the standpoint mostly of a Jubilee enddate at the beginning of October. As you read through these preplanned events, please pay attention to the larger tumult they are creating. In this way, you won’t be taken by surprise and can continue to plan for what is going to be a very difficult and interesting 2017. ECONOMY Let’s summarize a little: We’ve tracked Jubilee Year right through September and are now coming to its end in October. During this time, we’ve remarked on the many market savvy millionaires and billionaires who have made the point over and over that the current economic and market environment is a catastrophe that can easily lead to worldwide bankruptcy and impoverishment. Perhaps the strongest statement was made by William White of the Bank for International Settlements who stated that the entire worldwide economic system was so overwhelmed by debt that there was no way to repay it. What he suggested was necessary was a “debt jubilee” – which in this Jubilee Year had numerous reverberations for us. Both Shemitah and Jubilee have been used as a springboard for further internationalism. As we look at projects beginning or ending in early October, we can see the pattern clearly. For instance, construction work on the $1.5 billion Tema Port expansion project in Ghana will start in October 2016. This is a focused World Bank project that will expand the port’s capacity and should be finished in late 2019. China Harbour Engineering Company Ltd and AECOM (Ghana) Ltd. are constructing the port.


This is not merely a gigantic port, though, but a statement of Africa’s positioning over the next decade. One needs to assess this construction in terms of longterm, international trends. Africa is the last and largest global region available to be exploited in the fashion of Japan and China. The idea is to radically expand Africa’s industrial capacity as a way to illustrate how “capitalism” can generate explosive growth. The first country to be exploited like this was Japan. The US welcomed low priced Japanese goods to its shores and in return Japan received floods of US dollars. The result of this newfound boom was a cash flow that the Japanese government reinvested in US Treasuries. This is how Japan ended up owning close to $1 trillion in US securities. The same thing took place in China. The US opened its doors to low cost Chinese goods and China benefitted from tremendous US consumer purchases. These purchases allowed China to build up its industrial capacity and also to purchase massive amounts of US Treasuries. Now the same pattern is to be repeated with Africa although it is likely that the world will be moved away from the US dollar and Treasuries and towards the SDR and the IMF. This process is to be repeated on a smaller scale as well. Vietnam, for instance, is tapping into a World Bankfunded project to attract “experts” in various industrial and scientific fields. The Fostering Innovation through Research, Science and Technology (FIRST) Project for Vietnam, offers as much as $200,000 to successful proposals under this phase. FIRST will provide grants of up to $4 million especially in areas of sustainable development and applicants must submit proposals before October 3. Africa is currently the biggest globalist project but we can see that developing countries like Vietnam are not to be left out of the mix. The same goes for Egypt, which is currently putting into place a VAT as part of the country’s “economic reform programme.” The 13% VAT will be triggered on October 1 to take the place of a 10% goods and services tax. Reportedly, a VAT will make Egypt eligible for funding from both the World Bank and the African Development Bank. While Africa and other developing countries are being positioned as industrial powerhouses the attacks on Western countries in Europe and the Americas continue apace. Aggressive migration is upending various Western nationstates and is intended, increasingly, to homogenize the world. Europe is in the midst of trying to cope with an overwhelming flood of immigrants and in the US, the Obama administration is working with major resettlement agencies – or voluntary agencies (VOLAGs) – to ready the US for a similar surge of immigration. In fact, the federal government is paying more than $1 billion annually to manage the resettlement of refugees and has plans to bring in at least 85,000 refugees in Fiscal Year 2017, which begins on, you guessed it, October 1. Obama wants to double payments as well to VOLAGs, and asked Congress to appropriate more than $2 billion. The trends discussed above will advance in 2017 and will become part of a larger reshaping that will take place when markets finally collapse, pulling down debt ridden banks, industrial companies and even whole countries.


We had a taste of what’s to come recently when the Dow alone dropped over 400 points. But the real damage will take place when the thousandtrillion dollar derivatives market finally implodes. We’ve seen evidences of how shaky markets are worldwide but the steady expansion of the world’s money supply is preparing us for a crash that will reshape the world’s economy. And, as we can see, above, the idea will be to make sure that developing countries are ready to offer new commerce to a reeling world. (Out with the old and in with the new.) If you live in a Western nationstate, you will have to accept that your country is being “evened out” in order to facilitate further globalism. Economics is a tool and, as we’ve often pointed out, war and military actions are economics (and politics) by another name. The bottom line, as we’ve pointed out above is that developing countries are being strengthened while the West is being diminished. Over time we will have larger catastrophes that will affect everyone but as we can see from these final Jubilee trends, the larger trend is to impoverish those regions that have previously experienced prosperity and create new regions of lowcost consumerism. If you live in the West you’re a number one target. And remember, please, those who are taking aim at you don’t care if you live or die. In fact, they might rather have you dead. WAR When it come to military issues, the worst is yet to come—just as it is from an economic standpoint. Again, the idea is to impoverish the West and make normal commerce improbable if not impossible. Before thoroughgoing globalism takes hold, destruction must be widespread and people must be made desperate enough to accept almost any kind of internationalist solution. In this section, we’ll summarize some of what’s taking place not necessarily within an October timeframe but generally as these military tensions continue to percolate and gather force. Throughout Shemitah and Jubilee, the groundwork has been laid and now over the next few years various catastrophic confrontations will be triggered. The kind of wars, upcoming, will include Russia and perhaps China too… as wars are better (or more properly troublesome) when they are bigger. Most of the action is centering for now around the Middle East and Russia. The Chinese confrontation is building as well but is mostly restricted to the South China Sea and has further to go before active aggression commences. In fact, thanks to both Ukraine and Syria, confrontations leading to a wider war are in full swing. There are reports of both US and Russian troops (secret or not) maneuvering near one another. And both the US and Russian planes are flying reconnaissance and bombing missions in Syria. In and around Ukraine, Russian and Ukraine, forces have clashed as well. None of the violence is persuading the US to curtail extramilitary measures, and of course that’s just the point. The US, for instance, is moving to expand sanctions on Russian companies as a result of continued antiUkraine activities. The socalled cooperation between the two countries was discussed at the G20


summit in China and took only a few days to begin to unravel. The Kremlin said the expansion “goes in serious discord with the issues of possible cooperation in sensitive areas, which the two presidents discussed at their meeting.” In simplest terms, the US sponsored a coup in Kiev that created an antiRussian Ukraine government. This is analogous to Russia sponsoring a coup in Mexico and then actively taking economic and military steps to counteract any further actions the US might take to bolster security. Russia in fact, annexed a small portion of Southern Ukraine where the population was most strongly involved with Russia via familial and industrial ties. As the tensions between Russia and the US are not diminishing either, one must begin to believe this is a matter of policy and nothing else. The globalist that run the West and the US want expansive and expanding war and throughout both Shemitah and Jubilee have been raising the volume of violence regularly. This is never properly explained of course. Instead, Putin is continually blamed. Here, from the New York Times :

Putin has become opportunistically revisionist in his own right, sensing American weakness and looking for ways to destabilise the Western order – including through tacit support for Donald Trump. Unless you're Trump himself, Putin's destabilising moves – the Crimean anschluss, the Ukraine invasion, the shadow war against his neighbours and Western governments writ large – have made it much harder to imagine Moscow as anything but an adversary to be checked, contained, opposed.

This sort of analysis is filled with lies. Start with the idea that Putin is probably controlled, at least partially, by the same banking elites that control Western – and Chinese – leaders. The socalled military “tension” in the world is likely a quasi fantasy. One can see clearly that the US has incited Russia and that Russia has made countermoves while warning that US aggression could create a far wider war. Russia is seen by many in the West as the “good guy” in the developing confrontation but when looked at objectively Putin acts in an authoritarian manner just as EU officials do or Obama does. Some of this is just theatre then. War is as much of a distraction as politics in other words. And the pushing and shoving continues not just in Ukraine but Syria too. Here last week a detailed transition plan for Syria was unveiled to the world by The High Negotiation Committee (HNC), “an umbrella body representing more than 30 political and military forces seeking to wrest power from Assad.” The plan presented publicly in London comprised 25page and suggested six months of negotiations leading to a transitional administration that would include the opposition to Assad, the Assad government and “civil society.” This government would be in charge for 18 months and then give way to elections. Assad himself would step down at the end of the sixmonth negotiation period, or so it is being reported. The ongoing Syrian negotiations have been accompanied by efforts to ensure a ceasefire between the US and


Russia. US secretary of state John Kerry and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov supposedly struck a deal but the breakdowns have already begun. Here, from Al Jazeera:

The deal brokered by the United States and Russia to cease hostilities in wartorn Syria was immediately violated by both government and rebel forces shortly after going into effect Monday, according to reports from the region. Not an hour after the ceasefire took effect, residents in Aleppo said government forces had targeted a rebelheld area with explosives, according to the New York Times.

This is typical of what goes on and will continue to occur. Assad has the most to lose and Russia, too, is involved because of the nearness of the fighting. But for Europe, the US and the West generally, what’s going on in the Middle East involves strategy more than immediate impact. The larger point is to further demonize Russia, as Michael Rubin, a former Pentagon official and resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, recently explained to the Washington Free Beacon , “It’s not going to hold … The United States has shown that there is no penalty for violation of any agreement and there is no penalty, there is no recompensation, for violations under the ceasefire agreement.” Again, we see the US is held up as the responsible and injured party when this is simply untrue. What’s going on is a dance of death designed to widen the ripples of destruction. The reporting in the West as regards mainstream publications is relentlessly anti Russian and antiAssad. “Assad will try to kill as much as possible before the claimed ceasefire,” an antigovernment activist told the Times immediately following the announcement of the deal. “A lot of shelling and bombs will fall upon civilians, especially the almost empty markets.” Taking Assad out of Syria will likely increase pressure on Russia to make countermoves – or so it will seem. One way that Russia can make its borders more secure is by growing closer to Turkey. This won’t be hard since leading Turkish officials have been regularly blasting the US for setting up Turkey’s recently failed coup… To sum up, we have confrontations at various levels of intensity in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, Russia and China. Economically, trends are continually undermining Western peace and prosperity and the overlay of military tension and war that we’ve just delineated above is bound to make things worse. It’s no coincidence that the economic trends we’ve been able to identify are either ending or beginning around October 12. Now the planning for Jubilee Year gives way once more to an expansion of Shemitah Trends and the aftershocks of everything that has been put in place during this Jubilee Year. The destruction both from an economic and military standpoint is going to be intense. Continue to gather resources that will help you through these tumultuous and even catastrophic times. As usual throughout this newsletter we’ll be suggesting solutions you need to consider, so please pay close attention. The end of the Jubilee Year will bring with it increased chaos and catastrophe. You’ll need to be more alert than ever.


These challenges are not impossible to surmount but they will take both energy and determination. We intend to continue to provide you the necessary resources, so take advantage of them as you face 2017. MORE JUBILEE ODDS AND ENDS We are now just a weekandahalf from the end day of Jubilee on October 2nd. Will something big happen on that exact day? There is simply no way to know. Major market crashes happened on the exact end day of Shemitah in 2001 and 2008 but there was no major market crash on the end day of Shemitah in 2015 (nor could there be as it was a Sunday). But we did see the beginning of chaos in Europe commence on the exact end day in 2015. In 1987, the biggest percentage point crash in US stock market history happened approximately three weeks after the Shemitah end day. And, in 2015, most of the market carnage occurred approximately 3 weeks prior to the Shemitah end day, with the Dow down more than 1,100 points intraday at that time. So, we have a fair amount of Shemitah history to look at since it occurs every 7 years. But, the Jubilee occurs every 49 years so we have much less information to go on. We do know that the last Jubilee included the Israeli Six Day Way (and we don’t think it was coincidence that it was 6 days, and they rested on the 7th). The 2016 Jubilee is 50CYCLES of 360 days (7 cycles of 2520 days [7x360] cycles) + 360 days, which equals 18,000 days exactly. Starting on June 5, 1967 (the 6day war) + 18,000 days = September 15, 2016 which we have just passed. Pope Francis has called this an “emergency Jubilee year” and from September 17 – 20, 2016 he prayed in Assisi for peace with representatives of NINE religions. He also is holding other special Jubilee events during September and October. Of course, many Biblical prophecies talk about how in the end days there would be a one world religion and that appears to be what they are moving towards. There is still much to be seen about what is really going on. As a note, we received an email from a Jewish person who has studied the Jubilee and he said the following:

I have one minor correction regarding the Jubilee. The Yuval (Jubilee) ends on Yom ha Kippur (Day of Atonement), which is on October 11th at sundown, not on October 2nd, which is Rosh Hashanah. The shemitah always end on Yom ha Teruah (Day of Trumpets), Yom ha Din (Day of Judgement) and Rosh Hashanah (Head Year), which are all on the same day, but not the Jubilee. It ends ten days later after the ten days of awe.

If this information is correct then we should also be watching carefully on October 11th.


Of course, we will have lots more to come. Everything appears to be coming to a head right at this time. All we can do is continue to watch and see how things transpire.

No matter what occurs over the coming days, weeks and months, however, there will be plenty of opportunities to protect yourself and also profit from all this dramatic change. I’d also like to let you know that we have officially launched the website for Anarchapulco 2017 now and it will be held from February 2528 in Acapulco, Mexico. We’ve also officially launched the TDV Internationalization and Investment Summit to be held the day before, on February 24. Take a look at both pages as I think you’ll be very happily surprised at what we have planned. Some of the most important experts in every aspect of investing, including cryptocurrencies, will all be gathered in Acapulco that week and I’ll be looking forward to seeing many of you there. Thank you for subscribing. All of us at TDV wish you and your loved ones all the best during these most interesting times.

Vigilante’s View — London, England


http://anarchapulco.com/

https://anarchapulco.com/2016/08/31/tdv-internationalization-investment-summit-2017-single-adult-ticket/

https://anarchapulco.com/2016/08/31/tdv-internationalization-investment-summit-2017-single-adult-ticket/

How to Put Your Canadian RRSP Into Gold Bullion

Jeff Berwick

We have talked a lot in the past about the importance of getting your retirement funds out of the hands, or easy reach, of the government. As we’ve said, all Western governments are beyond bankrupt and solely being kept afloat by excessive money printing and zero or negative interest rates. I personally recommend withdrawing your funds from any government retirement fund, even if there are serious penalties for doing so, as I believe as things get worse they will nationalize the retirement accounts. In the US for example, there are trillions of “untaxed” funds being held in IRAs/401ks and the government is licking their lips on getting access to them. If you can’t withdraw the funds (some funds are locked in) then the next best thing to do is to get the funds outside of the country (where it is harder to repatriate/confiscate) or to at least invest in things like precious metals with them. For Americans, the best approach is a selfdirected IRA. This allows you to internationalize the funds and invest them into almost anything you want. This could include gold bullion in Singapore, real estate in South America or even race horses in Dubai. At the moment we recommend Perpetual Assets in the US to help you setup a selfdirected IRA. For Canadians, however, there is no such thing as a selfdirected RRSP (Registered Retirement Savings Plan). However, we have found what we think may be the best way to move your RRSP into precious metals stored and segregated in your name. It’s through a company called Guildhall Wealth Management and we conducted the following interview with Jerry Correia to ask him more. Q: Thanks for taking the time Jerry. Tell us a little bit about Guild Hall and yourself. A: Since 2002, Guildhall Wealth Management has been helping people protect their wealth against threats such as inflation, dollar devaluation, failing stock markets and geopolitical unrest with Physical hard assets such as Gold, Silver and Natural Fancy Color Diamonds. The key quality is Physical. We don’t believe offering bullion “proxy” such as certificates or ETF’s possess the qualities needed to fully decouple away from the risks inherent in conventional arrangements such as financial assets, currencies, and the financial system. As an account manager here I strive to help new & experienced investors crystallize the importance of monetary hard assets and how to make them a part of their portfolios.


http://dollarvigilante.com/perpetualassets

http://dollarvigilante.com/goldrrsp

Q: What type of clients do you accept? Is there a certain net worth requirement? Do they have to be Canadian? A: Our clients are global, ranging from individuals, corporations, to charities. We cater to people who wish to own hard assets with zerocounter party risk. Investors can purchase bullion online at www.guildhallpreciousmetals.com with no minimums, this is great for the first time investor or anyone looking to put some physical in their hand. For those investing in larger amounts they can choose to have it stored in an independent insured depository located in Ontario Canada or Singapore. Most recently, we've introduced Canadian investors the opportunity to purchase physical LBMA approved gold and silver within registered savings plans such as RRSPs, TFSAs, LIRAs etc., virtually the first of its kind to be offered in Canada so we’re very excited and proud about this service. Q: Yes, this is of interest to us because we are aware of Self Directed IRAs in the US where you can invest in physical bullion but we were not aware of a way to do it in Canada and many of our subscribers have asked us. What is the process to do this with your RRSP in Canada? A: Guildhall Wealth Management is the bullion dealer of a registered investment firm with the Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC). We maintain an open and transparent dialogue with our clientele so we will walk them through the account opening and funding processes. Whether the investor wants to start a new RSP account or transfer a portion or all of an existing account from another institution (with no tax penalties), our team will help facilitate the entire process. Upon opening and funding an account the client receives the following professional bullion services from Guildhall: market updates, selection of product, purchase, and allocation of the bullion. Q: Is it correct in saying that with most traditional RRSP accounts you can't physically hold bullion? If so, are you aware of others offering this service or are you the only one you know of? A: It is true that there are others offering physical bullion in an RSP, even using the term ‘allocated’. But we ask, allocated to who? We’re proud of our service because Guildhall’s difference ensures that the investor maintains physical ownership. This is achieved by allocating the bars directly to the client not a fund, not a trust, not a firm, or on any other entity’s balance sheet. Every Guildhall investor receives an itemized inventory report for their bullion, complete with serial numbers. After receiving this document they can schedule a personal visit to the depository (not a bank) and the owner can crossreference the serial #’s against the actual bullion. Proving its existence and seeing specific bullion titled to them is critical. Investors can see, touch, photograph, and even video audit their bullion themselves anytime instead of trusting a 3rd party audit. Our clients love visiting their bullion and we encourage them to. Q: If someone wants to move their RRSP over to you, what is the process and cost? A: Once we open an account that's identical to the client's existing RSP, we can also help facilitate the transfer for them. This is nice for those who don't want to go through their bank or planner themselves. The transfer process literally pulls the requested amount and the funds laterally migrate from the old RSP account to the new precious metals RSP account. This lateral transfer means funds move while staying within the structure of an RSP. This is not collapsing an registered savings plan so no harsh penalties apply. Yes, the entity from which the funds are leaving will likely charge a fee, but if the client is transferring is C$25,000 or


more that fee will be rebated back as a promotion (up to $150). Q: That is great, it sounds as easy, painless and cost free as can be. Is there anything else Canadians who may want to move their RSP to you should know? A: As a family company, our clients know we love giving things away. So we have a promotion going on until February... anyone investing US$5,000 in a Bullion in the RRSP will receive a free gram of gold (limit up to 10 grams).

Responsible for new business and sales, Jerry Correia is an account manager of Guildhall Wealth Management Inc. Joining the family business in 2013, Jerry’s expertise in world currencies & hard assets allows him to educate clients on capital preservation and the responsible stewardship of wealth.

After years as an foreign exchange trader at a Toronto bank, Jerry gained frontline exposure to the deliberate currency depreciation and increasing risks which granted him the tools needed to understand money & today’s economy. From witnessing the ‘flash crash’ of 2010 on the trading floor, to seeing economic fundamentals being trumped by Fed speeches, to the ticking time bomb of toxic derivatives, Jerry has resolved that investing in monetary hard assets including Natural Fancy Color Diamonds and Precious Metals Bullion are necessary to decouple from risk and grow wealth for the long term.

Jerry’s passion is to equip every Guildhall client with the knowledge to make informed investment decisions pertaining to Natural Fancy Color Diamonds and Bullion and strives to assist each investor attain the threshold of performance and balance they need.

You can learn more about Guildhall here .


http://www.dollarvigilante.com/goldrrsp

Update on Simply Natural Farm Investment

Jeff Berwick

In the June Dispatch of TDV we featured a company called Simply Natural Investments. Simply Natural is a unique farminabox concept where you own your own Simply Natural farm in Panama. They plant, pick, pack, sell, and ship your mangoes to the world’s markets and send 70% of the profits to you. As I’ve said in past, I think that owning producing farmland, especially outside of the Western countries is an excellent way to diversify your capital. If you are interested in that you should go back to the June Dispatch to read my interview with Simply Natural. Since then a number of TDV subscribers have gone down to Panama to check it out in person. While I have met some of the Simply Natural people at conferences (and by the way they will be at our upcoming conference in Acapulco if you wish to meet them), I have not had the time to go down to Panama to check out their operation in person. However, one of our subscribers has just returned from a visit and he was so kind as to allow us to publish his review here: Jeff: My wife and I had a great trip to Panama last weekend. We spent 90 minutes speaking with Sandy Lipkins and Brian Angiuli at the Simply Natural office in Panama City Friday morning. They gave us the background of how they got to where they are today and answered all our questions. We then met up with them on Saturday at the restaurant in Hotel Cocle in Penonome. We were also joined by three guys from France that are your newsletter subscribers as well. Sandy and Brian drove us another 20 minutes to the farm and gave us an almost four hour tour of the mango operation. I was very impressed with everything and am ready to invest. Unfortunately my wife is a little hesitant to wire money overseas, and I may need another few days to get her acceptance of the idea. I think it is a great opportunity to own some income generating land outside the US, and it must be able to provide some residency options if needed. Everyone


http://simplynaturalinvestments.com/

should do their own research and take a trip to Panama. My wife and I don't speak a word of Spanish and we managed to spend four days there. I would just suggest a good navigation system as street signs were lacking. Sandy and Brian recommended using the Waze app for navigation. Plus, the Waze app will alert you to the motorcycle police pulling people over for speeding (they hit me up for $100 cash). Great investment idea. Thanks, Jeremy As you can see he was quite impressed by the operation and gives some good info for those that may want to visit, or, for those who may be interested in investing but don’t want to take the time to go there personally. As with all things of this nature you should always do your own due diligence, as Jeremy did. So far all my interactions with the company have been excellent and I’ve been impressed at their professionalism as well as the quality of other investors I am aware of who have been invested in the company for years. I intend to try to make a trip down to Panama in the next month and will get more ontheground info at that time. I may also look at a younger, but similar, operation in Colombia while I am in the area. I also intend to visit Nicaragua to look at some VERY interesting property developments. I’ll be reporting back on it all to you here as always.


TDV Portfolio: Review & Outlook

Ed Bugos, TDV Senior Analyst

In my last PREMIUM update I recommended trading back into the Direxion 3x Gold Miners ETF (NUGT). I like the trade but please note I hedged it. I recommended it because (1) my algorithm triggered a buy signal and (2) because it is uncertain whether we’ll actually get the broad stock market correction that we are betting on. However, if you are not prepared to hedge the trade in some way then I would be wary of getting back into NUGT now. The rally back up through $20 is the reaction to the latest FOMC missed opportunity (to hike rates), and has already paid for the $2 insurance cost of the trade, although the insurance is probably cheaper today.

New Recommended Options:

1. BUY 16 DEC 2016 FXB (British Pound) $135 Calls between $0.25 and $0.50 2. BUY 16 DEC 2016 FXF (Swiss Franc) $102 Calls between $0.45 and $0.85

Fed Jitters Denote Credibility in Decline The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decreed that there should be no interest rate, again. In an interview after the decision, the Fed’s Yellen cited a bunch of indicators as evidence of an improving economy close to reaching her objectives while expressing a desire not to let it “overheat.” Every one of the indications or references she made was enough to justify a full out rate hike on its own never mind a post millennial 25 basis point baby step increment. After all, we’ve been at zero for nearly 10 years now. Wouldn’t a step or two in the tightening direction go a long way just to validate some of the very things she is saying? Or is this economy, even in her mind, so fragile? Even when CNBC’s Fed lover (Steve Liesman) asked why they keep moving goalposts, all she could muster was another one. Now they want 2% inflation. There has been no rate hike in almost a decade in the free market capital of the world. The politburo has not allowed it. Why? Whatever reasons, if the economy and the outlook is as good as she says, it offers hardly justify postponing a baby step. The Fed recovered some credibility in the post 2008


world by reflating asset markets, although you and I know it is just hot air. That balloon may be leaking now. This game has gone on too long. By game I mean this strategy of gaming expectations about a rate hike, it has begun to stir reminiscences of one version of the carrot and stick controversy. We have been playing it since we started the dollar vigilante, I can’t remember how many times Jeff and I dared them to follow through on their threats. And each time they threatened, gold would fall, the miners would fall, and the dollar would rally. But if Yellen’s jitters tell us anything it is that all of that should unwind. Its credibility should fall, and the US dollar should fall as a result. The reasons for her fears are not all that hard to understand. She kept quoting the Fed’s objectives, which formally are full (or optimal) employment and relative price stability. Informally, we know them to be theft and obfuscation. Foremost they want to continue the illusion of boom, and secondly, they need to befog the state of the government’s balance sheet, which under normal interest rates is unthinkable. It’s the US Dollar, Stupid For a long time now, USD bulls have argued that their favorite currency will continue to appreciate on foreign exchange markets. Their rationale is twofold. Primarily, they still see it as a safehaven receptacle, at least when global waters get rough. And heaven knows, they have been rough in most of the world, not coincidentally, commensurate with a collapse of the commodity bubble. But it has been on the mend again lately with stock markets in Argentina, Hong Kong, Brazil, China, and London all putting in gains of 10 to 20 percent in the third quarter. Even the Nikkei has outperformed the US stock market averages in this period. Besides, the mini panics of Aug 2015 and Jan 2016 were rooted in US financial speculation, and not China or Greece as was popularly blamed. Still, regardless of the rhetoric, the historical record on the dollar’s safehavenness is rather weak even if you included years like 2008 when I argued it was oversold. The second part of their rationale is a myth too: i.e., that the US economy is stronger or better off than its peers; and as a result, interest rates are ready to rise here while still dropping to negative elsewhere. The important factor in the exchange rate between currencies, assuming there is little or no change in the dynamics driving the broad demand for each, is what happens to their supply. There is no magic relation here between the value of a currency and perceptions about the economy. This valuation occurs through supply and demand like everything else, except in this case the good is money which is just cash balances. But broad changes in the demand for holding cash usually only change slowly. Only extreme situations will tend to bring about unexpected volatility in this demand. But the source of that destabilization is ultimately always related to the fallout from the money expansions of the fractional reserve banks, supported by the central bank in an effort to manipulate the nation wide rate of interest top down.


Rather than letting the market decide this “natural” rate the Fed pursues somewhat nebulously what it refers to as the “neutral interest rate policy.” Interest rate decrees from the central bank are ultimately backed by the manipulations in money supply. And the US Fed has abused this privilege way more in the post 2008 period than any of its larger peers. In fact, the US central bank has abused it more than its own fractional reserve banks in the entire previous century (more than half the total US money supply was created post 2008). That is one reason why the US economy has less negatives in the news right now. It’s when the banks stop inflating that the real underlying problems surface! On the other hand, after many years of slower money creation from China, you are hearing the bad news coming out of there. If the US money supply was fixed as it should be there’d be a lot of bad news coming out of there right now too. The fact that the US has inflated more in the post 2008 environment than its industrialized peers obfuscates the damage that the policy is actually doing to its capital foundation. In this case the bad news would be good news not because the Fed would be coming to the “rescue” but because it would be a sign that the economy is on the mend, creatively destroying this to create that, or liquidating this investment for that one. The collapse of institutions that are uneconomic is good news. You don’t see it during the boom phase but that is when the damage is occurring because that is when the wasteful investment is occurring. What you are not seeing at the moment in the US is how much damage the Fed has done with this policy. You won’t be able to see that until the banks stop inflating altogether. Remember the Taper Tantrum Although the US dollar saw net capital inflows on the back of strong stock market returns in 2013, thanks to QE3 (total shaded region in the graphs above and below) for inflating the Dow from 12000 to 17000, the currency nevertheless really got traction during the “taper tantrum ” in 2014, denoted by the light shaded region in the graphs above (and below). The dollar benefited markedly from the perception that the US economy was better off than the world economy, although it was all based on a house of cards. To be sure, the tantrum really applies to the stock market and the realization that its valuations rely on a

policy that was ending. You can see that in the sharp drop in the Dow at the end of QE3. Both the stock market and the dollar were ahead of the Fed, they both expected it to move to a tightening very quickly. Because media pundits and analysts were focused on balance sheet activity and interest rate targets instead of money supply, which is the only thing that a central bank can really affect, they promoted the MYTH that foreign central banks the Bank of Japan and ECB in particular were going in the other direction, towards more easing, while the Fed was moving to tightening .


https://mises.org/library/myth-neutral-interest-rate-policy

The tantrum resulted in a 2025% drop in Yen and Euro in the second half of 2014, and similar drops in other currencies, especially of the oil exporters. Russia’s markets were obliterated when the oil boom, previously spurred on by QE3, collapsed. Many of the emerging market economies relying on oil for their primary export also collapsed when QE3 finally came to an end in the third quarter of 2014. The DJIA fell 1500 points in reaction. But almost immediately the BOJ and ECB came to the rescue with more QE talk . As I have covered here often, the market during this time was getting this wrong. For, the ECB was caught up in legal restrictions that prevented it from inflating like the Fed (until 2015); and the BOJ was engaged in a policy of deception when it came to the quantity of currency it was actually printing. Throughout this period the US Fed and the US banking cabal were inflating money more rapidly even than China’s PBOC. Yet dollar bulls continued to promote the recovery story or the dollar’s relative safehaven appeal because of the turbulence overseas. They promoted the myth that the US recovery was taking hold and that the Fed was going to start tightening, while constantly pointing to the troubles elsewhere. Regardless, while monetary conditions in the US were more liquid than most of the rest of the world during this period, they were still getting less liquid in line with most of the rest of the world—not more not less. As a result, the boom in oil exploration and development turned over, and the Fed induced and government subsidized booms in the healthcare and tech sectors (as well as autos and defense) were left to hold up the averages. These sectors too were contracting earlier this year, leaving the market to rely on the dollar sensitive gold and silver miners, and oil sectors this year. A few other things have changed this past year. The ECB, BOJ, and others have pushed towards negative rates while the Fed has remained a notch above zero. Also, the ECB began to inflate money again in 2015 under its own QEinfinity program. And China, along with many emerging market banking systems, have fired up again in the past 12 months. Those trends are USD supportive, eventually, and especially if continued. But there is a lag and those are relatively new and still minor developments; they have not changed the fact that the US dollar is the most overvalued currency. Still Looking for US Dollar to Confirm Nascent Gold/Silver Bull Markets Regardless, many, including me, believed the Fed was deliberately targeting a weak dollar in 2016 in order to keep the boom going. Some even think the motive is to give the incumbent (i.e., Killary) an edge in the election. During H1, up until Brexit, the US dollar looked like it was going to roll over and start a new bear market to boot, which along with the deteriorating political and economic landscape gave the precious metals a bid. In fact, my argument is that the precious metals trends have turned around; that new bull markets have dawned on them in the primary sequence now. But my argument is conditional, still awaiting confirmation from events in the stock and currency markets that have not occurred. The first is a new bear market trend in the major equity averages, and the second is a reversal in the US dollar trend. The premise is that those latter trend reversals would confirm my thesis that: 1. The recovery is a myth 2. This Fed is not going to do any real tightening until a dollar crisis arrives

And, in my most humble opinion, it will reveal that the US financial (stock and bond) bubble is the biggest on the planet! Either way, at least a downturn in the dollar is necessary to confirm the bullish trends in gold


and silver. On the other hand, if the stock and currency market continued higher in tandem our strategy may become very vulnerable. As this is unlikely, I remain cautiously bearish on the dollar. Why I Can’t Make The Case for A Stronger USD

No longer is the Fed just waiting for financial markets to be hit by a bout of turbulence and then lowering interest rates in response as former Chairman Alan Greenspan did. Instead, the critics contend, it’s become so sensitive to the risk of sharp market moves in the future that it’s pulling its policy punches now by repeatedly holding off on raising rates . — Bloomberg

That was out before the non rate hike. The gig is up! The cat is out of the bag now. Everyone sees the Fed blinking. Bloomberg continued to write that it was getting hard for the Fed to keep putting off a rate hike as it conflicts with its main underlying growth message. The fact is, the alleged recovery is wilting. All that is missing is the news of recession. What’s more, although it is true that bond yields are up in the US, they are up at least as much elsewhere, and most importantly, the yields that were negative in Japan and Germany have now gone positive .

The surprising feature of the upturn in bond yields for me is how timidly those yields are moving up on the recent rate hike threat compared to the first one in 2015. Note in the graph of the 3 month yield (on the left) how hard the market drove it up last November in reaction to a bullish surprise in the jobs report.


Conversely, the present market/yield can’t get any lift off. The 3 month bill yield drove up 10 basis points and caused a 500 point slide in the Dow the Friday before last. Now it is back down to 0.25% again. The point being that the market has no confidence in another rate hike this year, not this week, not this year. The higher yield spooks equities and the recovery in stock prices only occurred after Fed officials assuaged those fears. The 10 year bond yield has been able to stay up, but no more than any other yield. The stock market is rallying on the premise now that the Fed has abandoned its tightening, at least until after the election. But even there: Trump is calling the Fed out, and accusing it of advancing Hillary’s interests. How long can an overvalued stock market rally on such weak data? And how long can a currency stand on mythological values? The bulls want to push the stock market higher on this failure of Fed policy, but that may be the wrong decision. A rate hike would have helped validate the growth story while ducking the move yet again is becoming too absurd to support it. My Summary & Outlook on the US dollar Facts: 1. US banking system has manufactured the most currency post 2008 (among its peer reserves) 2. Most peer currencies have in this same period ALREADY fallen by more than half due to EU crisis,

commodity and oil bear markets, pop in China bubble (years ago!), and temper tantrum fallout 3. US government debt situation among the world’s worst especially when considering total size 4. US dollar is likely the most overvalued (and definitely overowned) of all the reserve currencies 5. The bullish case for the US dollar is based on myths and illusory ephemeral conditions

In my view, a number of trends are emerging that will send the US dollar into a new bear market cycle, 1. Stock returns outside US will look increasingly more attractive (or not as bad as inside US) 2. Recession looming in US, hence rate hikes will be abandoned before they begin 3. Price inflation in dollars due to turn up? if it does Fed is unprepared 4. The hidden debt bomb (hidden due to artificially low rates) to keep pressure on Fed

At the moment inflation expectations are low and confidence in the US recovery and rate hike myths are high. That is the main reason that gold and silver bulls have not yet gotten their confirmations from the US dollar and asset price trends. The Fed continues to postpone its validation of the recovery story by not hiking interest rates while at the same time refusing to abandon the tightening that is infinitely on hold. In my opinion it is more likely to give up on the recovery story then resume its tightening campaign given the weak present trend in the economic data. So the only question to me is when, and whether the USD is going to start falling before or after the Fed surrenders. However, the question that divides the bulls and the


bears on the US dollar in this group is not the economy, but whether it becomes a safehaven when the st hits the fan. It seems the current prognosis for many gold bulls is that the euro is going to collapse. I don’t disagree that the euro is doomed. My argument is that the US dollar is the most overvalued and overowned currency, and that the US financial markets are home to some of the the most over inflated assets on earth. The euro’s circulation is not as great as the Federal Reserve Note, and pessimism about the EU break up is old news that has pushed its value down too far relative to the US dollar in the short and medium term. And even if the EU’s break up were imminent, the currency outlook is a separate issue. But the premise for my trades on the US dollar is that the greenback is presently way overvalued and that its decline is nearer than the Euro’s failure as a currency. In fact, I’m probably looking too far ahead but the US dollar’s decline is in my view going to pressure the ECB to inflate. Again, I keep having to repeat myself, a large reason that the EU’s economy looks so dire is that the ECB came late to the QE party whereas the Fed was busily inflating its assets into a goldilocks zone. That perception could easily reverse. No matter what the truth is. When the next recession arrives in the US I believe you will see big risk premiums forming on the US government’s debt. It is the world’s largest debtor and makes many of the PIIGS look like piglets. The facts are that from the supply side, the US currency has been inflated more than its peer reserve currencies. In terms of ppp, it is more overvalued. As a reserve, it is way more overowned than all the others. And sentiment is too bullish. The bulls keep pointing to the problems in China or Greece, Italy, the UK or elsewhere. But the biggest problems are the ones in our own backyard, in the US, covered up only by the fact that the Fed has been busy monetizing the US government’s debts and bailing out wall street. Update on Currency Option Trading Strategies Our antidollar trades were doing fine until Brexit reinflated fears about an imminent EU break up. Although those fears quickly subsided, our currency trades have been slow to come back. The initial bounce in the US dollar didn’t hurt us because we expected the original bounce off the 92 neckline in May. What hurt our currency options was the rush to dollars on the news of Brexit i.e., the second leg of its intermediate upswing in late July and then the decision of the market to go to sleep over the next little while, since, as option buyers we have to deal with time constraints and the cost of time. So although the currencies themselves did nothing, our options lost value and have all expired except for the December $75 calls on Aussie (FXA) and the short sale of the December $125 puts on Pound (FXB).


FXA December $75 Call Options

FXB December $125 Put Options

We are up slightly on both of those trades having bought the FXA calls at $2 and shorted the FXB puts at $2.80. The Sep $78 calls on Aussie (FXA) and the $135 calls on the BP (FXB) expired out of the money, as did our $99 calls on the Swiss Franc (FXF). Not far out of the money, but enough to kill the option trades.

For example, we are still up 1% on the Australian currency ETF (FXA), which I added to our swing trades on July 1st, and the Swiss Franc ETF (FXF) is down about 1% in this period. The British Pound ETF was at $129, just $1 higher than it is now. As you can see in the charts of these currencies they have have really gone nowhere since then. So while we are not wrong on the US dollar so far, I am wrong on these trades, as I expected the post Brexit scare to reverse in the currencies as it did in equities more immediately. The question now is do we give up on the anti dollar trade or has it ebbed enough to resume again?

My argument is that it is likely to resume again after the FOMC. The USD popped up this past few days on the idea that the rate hike is back on the table and that the Fed will throw some verbiage at the likelihood of a December move. The FOMC’s non action reversed that. The only scenario that can hurt us is if the new highs in the stock market continue for the next few thousand Dow points, and if that stock market rally drags the greenback up with it. In order for the dollar to rally with stock prices there has to be participation by foreign investors, they have to believe in the rally.


In my model for the US dollar the pivotal statistic is the expected performance of US versus global shares, which can be captured in the chart here on the left. I have shown this before the black line depicts the USD index and the red line is the ratio of the DJIA to the DJ world index. Forget interest rate differentials, especially in that manipulated market. There is a historical correlation between relative returns on stock prices in the domestic currency and the trend in the currency’s value. Usually, moreover, the currency trend (black line) anticipates the trend in relative equity performance. Relative consumer price inflation also has an impact but that isn’t as big a factor as asset inflation, yet. If you zoom in on the trend in the red line (i.e., relative equity performance) you will notice that the DJIA has underperformed the world average since July 1, when we put on our currency trades. So this is just another divergence with USD pre fomc diverging with the declining trend in relative equity performance. I suggest it is just an ebbing matter but that it’s over, and the right trends are going to grab hold going forward soon, with or without a bear market signal in the US equity averages. Granted, events can happen that I don’t foresee. The EU could be at war in weeks and the euro could be up in flames by Christmas. The BOE could panic and hyperinflate thereby crushing the Pound. Things like this could make me wrong, at least in the short term. The Brexit event was unforeseen and caused precisely such a diversion from what was unfolding as a reversal in the US dollar going into May. But I believe the biggest bubble on the planet at the moment resides in US paper. So we are going to continue to short it every chance we get. And I consider the recent bounce in the USD as another chance because it seems related to expectations about a rate hike that I can’t see to be likely in the short or medium term, and because I don’t buy the new highs in the US equity averages. Moreover, regardless of it all, I really like the Pound and the Swiss Franc in the short to medium term.

3. BUY 16 DEC 2016 FXB (British Pound) $135 Calls between $0.25 and $0.50 4. BUY 16 DEC 2016 FXF (Swiss Franc) $102 Calls between $0.45 and $0.85

If the USD is going to break is should happen before December, don’t try to bottom fish too much.


TDV Groups: Tokyo, Japan

Luis Fernando Mises

Dear Subscribers, today we are going to explore Japan with our friend Jon Southurst. He has been living there for a while and I requested him to help us see through his eyes, especially focusing on Tokyo where he stays. I hope you like this and I would love to hear your feedback. Luis: Jon, you are actually from Australia. Jon: That is right. Yes. Luis: So tell me something. Why would you want to leave such a diverse country, such a beautiful place with a lot of biodiversity, and go to Japan? Jon: That is a good question. I think Australia is a fantastic place. Everything people say about it is true, the good and the bad. My main problem with Australia is its location. It is just too far away from everywhere. You might as well be living in Antarctica. I mean, the population of Australia is probably similar to Canada, I think. But you know, if you live in Canada, if you are in the right time zone, you are only a Greyhound bus ride away from a lot of major US cities, so you can visit them. You know, I used to live in Canada, so I could just go up the river to Quebec or Montréal if I wanted to see another language or another culture. In Australia, you’ve pretty much got just Australia for anything less than a 6hour flight. The other closest countries are like Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and not many people go there. You know, if you want to go anywhere––to the major tourist destinations of the world or the major business centers––you’re looking at 8 or 10 hours of flight minimum every time. Luis: That is pretty long. Jon: Indeed.


Luis: Even here, Mexico is 2 hours’ flight. Any other place far away in the States is 2 hours at most, so that is pretty easy, so I can’t even imagine 8 hours. So from all the places in the world, why Japan? Jon: That is also a good question. I grew up mainly in the ‘80s, and I studied Japanese in high school because at my school, it was actually compulsory to study Japanese. It was around the mid to late ‘80s, and if anyone can remember that time, it was the Japanese bubble, where I think the attitude was like it is to China now. People thought Japan was the future. Your company is going to be taken over by a Japanese company, and if you have that language skill, then you’re going to be at an advantage in your career and future. It didn’t really work out that way. The Japanese economy kind of tanked in the early 1990s, and it never really got back to the same level it was at before. But because of that background––because of that 6 years of high school that I spent studying the language and the country itself––I just have this background fascination with it. And I hadn’t really bothered with it much after I was in high school, but it was always just in the back of my mind that someday I should go there and see it for myself. So eventually that is what I did. Luis: How old were you when you first went to Japan? And where did you go to in Japan? Jon: When I first came here, I was 29, so going back a while now. And I came to Tokyo. People at the time said that I should go to Osaka or one of the regional cities because the culture there is a little more open to travelers and foreigners, but I wanted to live in the metropolis area of Tokyo is where all of my favorite anime movies are set, so I wanted to come and experience the biggest city in the world, and that is where I came. Luis: And how is it? I mean, I’ve never been to Japan. Was it a cultural shock for you from Australia to Tokyo, and how did you deal with it? Jon: Yes. Absolutely, it was. The thing with Japan is it is probably one of the least multicultural countries in the world, so you’ve got a whole lot of Japan, and not much else. So that aspect alone is probably going to be a culture shock more than it would if you came to live in the US or any other big city like London or Paris, I guess. Luis: Right. I remember Doug Casey saying that the Asian countries are amazing to travel to, but it is kind of hard to blend in. Would you say that that is accurate? Jon: In fact, I would say it is impossible to blend in really. So I think the people who end up unhappy here are the ones who try, I think, to blend in. You realize after a while that you’ve got to maintain a certain level of foreignness just to retain the novelty for yourself and the locals as well, which has its good and bad points, I guess. Luis: So, I mean, having a big city like Tokyo––that is where you are staying––you have all of the


amenities in the world that you would ever want. Jon: Yes. Luis: How about food? What is food like over there? Jon: The food in Tokyo is sensational. They pride themselves on having the most Michelin stars or the most threestar Michelin restaurants of any city in the world. And there is variety, that’s for sure. I think the difference is that you can get every kind of food you want here, but it is not always cheap, and it is not always plentiful. You know, one big cultural difference that foreigners––especially nonAsians––notice about Japan is that the portions are really small. You know, if you want to eat a Western–size meal, you’ve got to be paying twice as much for it, because you probably have to order two. So, every time I go and I am eating a burrito somewhere, and my burrito is this big, and it cost me $20, I usually bump into some American who tells me I can get the same thing for $5 in California or Texas. Luis: That is crazy, $20. I mean, here in Texas––I’m coming from Mexico City, right? So when I moved to the States, Texas servings are probably like––I don’t know––diabetes/heart murmur on a plate, because they’re like best– Jon: That sounds awesome. Luis: So huge. Like half the time when we go out to eat, my wife and I share a plate because they are so huge. Jon: Yeah. And to be honest, when I go back to Australia, it is the same deal, too. I always put on a couple of kilograms every time I go there. Luis: You say kilograms. Do they use kilograms over there, too, in Tokyo? Jon: They do. They use kilograms pretty much everywhere except the US. Luis: Cool. Yeah. Because you know, I’m used to kilograms, and I had to get accustomed to pounds and miles and all of that. That is interesting. As far as living arrangements, I think all cities tend to have smaller living arrangements than the rest of the country, and surely that is not the exception. How expensive is it to live in Tokyo, rentwise, for instance? Jon: Okay. Generally, it is quite expensive. And I know there are so many different cities in the world that everything is relative, so it’s hard to say exactly what is expensive and what is not. The thing with Japan is that because of the economy and the


deflation they have suffered here for the last couple of decades, prices have really gone up, so what I thought was expensive maybe 10 or 15 years ago is actually quite reasonable now. With Tokyo, I think the rent on the surface looks quite reasonable. You might be paying about $1000 a month for a oneroom apartment or more, but they always hit you with a lot of extras. So you will find that when you move into most apartments, there is a 2month deposit that is also nonrefundable, as you will find at the end of your contract. And there is also a system they have here called key money, which is fairly unique to Japan, and it is like 2 months of rent that you give as a flatout gift to the landlord just for letting you move in. Luis: Oh wow. Jon: I think the key money aspect is mainly a Tokyo thing. I was told that it springs from postWorld War II, when housing was really scarce, and there was such competition for rooms because there were no buildings that every year people were prepared to pay 2 months rent to their landlord just to move in. But as with most things in Japan, it tends to stick around long after it is really needed. You know, they have a lot of trouble letting go of ideas in Japan sometimes, and that is one of them. You know, once it is ensconced in the culture, in the business culture, they tend to stick with it. I’ve heard in other cities, it is not so bad, and in recent times also––this is probably going to appall lots of the Dollar Vigilante audience here, but the government has been buying up a lot of apartments, and they let them out to people at a much lower rate, and they do not charge key money. So that makes the governmentowned apartments more attractive to most renters. Luis: Are they trying to create a monopoly here, or is that just kind of like a form of competition from the state? Jon: I’m not really sure what the motive is, to be honest. I think they are probably doing it out of a genuine wish to make housing more affordable for regular people. It’s like you want them, you know? They realize that half the people who work in the city can’t afford to live there, so rather than having to make people commute in 2 hours a day from outside, they are just doing what they can to make it more affordable. But you are right about the taxes, though. The taxes are quite high. And I’m sure that most people would just prefer to pay lower taxes and find their own houses. Luis: Oh absolutely. Jon: If they had the choice. Luis: I mean, the idea of Tokyo is kind of exotic, so I can understand why people would want to go there. Like the idea of the effervescence of the city and the exotic element of the ancient culture, especially for us in the Western world, so everything has a premium if you’re willing to pay for what you want. Jon: For sure.


Luis: I can understand that. So again, I mean it is not like Paraguay that we talked about last week, where our friend David was living very inexpensively, and people were very warm and whatnot. Here, you are telling me something that was extremely hilarious the other day about dating––that you equated dating with––what was the term that you used? Jon: I said it was like going to an interview for a spouse. Luis: Please tell us a little bit about that one, because I think that our readers would like that. Jon: All right. I should say at the start I’ve been married for about the last 8 years, and I was living with my wife for probably about 3 years before that, so I am no expert when it comes to dating, and my experience is just a memory now. But I did find a lot that when I first came here, there are a lot of girls in Tokyo who are interested in foreign guys. I’d say probably 90% are not interested in foreign guys at all, but the 10% who are interested are usually looking for a certain type of foreign guy––and when I say a certain type, usually rich, probably with some stable career in banking or something like that. So if you go out on a date with someone you don’t know very well, you’re going to get grilled a lot about your career and how much money you make and that kind of thing. The girls here are very oldfashioned. They will also expect you to pay for them and be oldfashioned and chivalrous––that kind of thing. Luis: Well, I think personally the idea of that––I mean, they’re wanting to see that they are not wasting their time. It’s not just a very frivolous, liberal relationship, so they want to know that they are investing their time properly with you, because I know that once they make that commitment in a relationship, they’re going to be like all on you and super catering, so maybe it’s like, well, if I’m going to do that, I want to make sure that the guy is going to be worth doing it for. Right? Jon: Yeah. And I don’t begrudge them that at all. I don’t even think it is a Japanese thing. I think it is a big city thing in general. I’m sure if you go on a date in a place like New York or London, you will find the situation is pretty much the same.

Luis: That is interesting. Jon: I shouldn’t call myself an expert there, because it has been a while. Luis: You are the expert. Jon: But I do have single friends who tell me that it hasn’t changed much. Luis: That stuff doesn’t really change, especially, like you said, in a country where they tend to keep that tradition. It seems they are more conservative in that regard. Is that correct? Jon: Yes.


Luis: Well, that is kind of fun and exciting also. So as far as work, how easy or how hard was it for you, for instance, coming in from a different continent to find work there? Jon: I would probably say that work has probably been the most difficult aspect of living here. So when I came here, I did what a lot of people do, unless they have a specialist skill in finance or IT or something, and I came here on one of the special visas they have to teach English. And once upon a time––say, back in the 1980s––teaching English was a really good deal here in Japan because they were desperate for teachers, and there were not many people. But over the years, they’ve really streamlined that industry so that teaching English is probably like working in a fast food restaurant these days, and the pay is about as good, and the job conditions are not unlike a fast food restaurant either. You sort of sit there at the table, and people just stream past you every day. By the end of the day, you can’t even remember whom you have spoken to. Luis: Wow. Jon: So I did that for about a year when I first arrived. After that, I got a job teaching business English classes, which was slightly better, and they sent me around to various companies––mainly big banks, investment banks and trading houses, that kind of thing. And that was a lot more interesting. I learned a lot more about business and finance than I had learned before. But at the end of the day, it was still just a contract job teaching English, which is not very stimulating. I mean, there are times when it is great and times when it is not. And I started to look for other things, and I think that is when I found that there were not many opportunities for foreigners here in Japan other than English teaching. So you know, my main trade is writing. I was a copywriter and a proofreader and editor before I came here, and I always imagined that I could get that kind of job here in Japan. But what I found is that the conditions for that were perhaps even worse than English teaching, and the results were not much better either, because everywhere you go in Japan, you see companies producing reports in English and making brochures and company information in English, and it is quite terrible. Luis: So it is like a huge competition deal there going on. Jon: Yes. But at the same time, no one wants to spend a whole lot of money on it either. They’re always content to put out the bare minimum. I see a lot of companies––bigname companies––still just using Google Translate to translate material that they’re putting out there in public. Luis: Incredible. Jon: And it doesn’t matter how often you point out to them that it is terrible, that it doesn’t work. They will still just do it, because no one wants to spend the money. So eventually, I just gave up looking for a job in Japan at all,


and I just started working freelance for companies outside of Japan. Luis: That is actually kind of exciting. What are you doing for them? Jon: I work for a number of Bitcoin blogs, and in between that, I do some copywriting for projects in that space. It is a pretty niche industry, Bitcoin and cryptocurrency and smart contracts and that kind of thing. So yeah. I have quite a few contacts there. Luis: That is so exciting. So ultimately, it comes down to having mobile income for whoever wants to leave their country and be able to not struggle with finding something where they are

going. Jon: In that sense, I think Japan is probably a good place for digital nomads. You know, if your income doesn’t rely on being in Japan, then yeah, you can probably last longer here. Getting a work permit is also kind of difficult in Japan. Luis: So because you got married, then you became a citizen or a resident or something of that nature, correct? Jon: Marrying a local gives you sort of quasipermanent residency rights. It is not quite as good as being an independent resident permanent resident, but it is pretty much the same. Luis: Okay. That is pretty cool. Jon: I have to say, it was quite easy to get to compared to other countries. If I was after an Australian work visa for a spouse or an American green card, there is a lot more hoops that I would have to jump through. Here in Japan, I just had to pay 50 bucks and fill out a form saying I was married, and that was pretty much it. Luis: You’re kidding me. Jon: Indeed. Luis: How fast did it take? Or how long? Jon: Probably about 2 weeks. Luis: No way! Jon: Yeah. It was incredibly easy, probably the easiest thing I’ve ever done in Japan––not getting married. That was quite difficult––the immigration process that comes from that.


Luis: That is pretty funny. Jon: For sure. Luis: Well, I am happy because like you said, ideas, like big picture summarizing, mobile income, exotic Tokyo, and if somebody wanted to be a permanent resident, marrying somebody would make it be easy to achieve that. So there are a lot of cool things that we are talking about. The whole idea of imported food in any country that you go to, it is going to be expensive. Jon: Yeah. For sure. Luis: So like the local food tends to be a little cheaper. So everybody can understand that, but I guess some people may not have the experience traveling, and they will always find themselves having to pay that premium, and again, that we were talking about. Jon: Absolutely. Luis: So as far as amenities, like going out in nature and all of that––you know, you and I were talking about something that is very interesting. There is a mountainous area that people go to. What is this thing that you are telling me? People go hiking? Jon: Oh yeah. It is very funny, because you think of Japan as being this crowded place that is so overloaded with people it is about to tip over, but in fact, it is really mountainous. So the cities tend to be crammed into these small areas along the coast, and the interior of the country is quite rugged. And the mountains are incredibly high, compared to some I have seen in Australia. I mean, I guess if you come from Australia, all mountains look high. But skiing is really popular here. A lot of people go up to Hokkaido to the ski resorts there, and sort of on the West Coast here. Also, the one popular thing––and I think that might be the one you are referring to––is climbing Mount Fuji. Luis: Yeah. That was it.

Jon: Yeah. That is the one that is like a religious duty for everyone who is Japanese and for anyone who comes to Japan and wants to participate in that ritual. There’s an old saying that every person should climb Mount Fuji once, but if you climb it twice, you’re an idiot. Luis: Why is that? Jon: I think my advice would be go and climb it once, and then you will understand. Luis: You were telling me that it is very foggy or something, no?


Jon: Yeah. It is not an enjoyable mountain to climb at all. It is a volcano, so you are basically just climbing up a big sand mountain. It is like climbing up a huge black sand dune, and it is often covered in clouds, which means you cannot see your hands in front of your face. Even if you have a flashlight, you are just looking at a big wall of light in front of you, and because it is made of sand, the path isn’t always clear. And that––yeah. It is a lot scarier than you would think doing that in the middle of the night. And everyone goes up in the middle of the night so they can watch the sunrise the next morning. Luis: Oh, so you can camp out and stay and like relax? Jon: Sort of. I tried to do it the rugged way, but I was freezing cold, and it was kind of raining, so I actually almost froze to death. That was the closest I’ve ever come to getting hypothermia. There are a couple of lodges on the way up. When I say a couple, I mean literally a couple. And they are always full, so you go out there, and I think to rest there for a couple of hours will cost you about $100, and there is probably no room except in the corner or on the floor or something. So I tried to do it the cheap ass way, like I always do, and all right, the sunset was spectacular, but apart from that, I wouldn’t really call it a success, because I did almost freeze to death. Luis: That is actually good to know, because I always like to tell everybody about all of the wonderful things and places that we talk about and also all the ways to avoid. And this is too funny. Jon: I highly recommend that once, just once. Luis: Alright. That is pretty cool. So we have got some pretty good information about Tokyo. What else do you think we should focus on or talk about, if we have missed anything? Jon: We talked about some costofliving, rent. Did we cover taxes? Luis: You said they were pretty high, but I have an idea. You’re working for outside companies; do you get taxed in Japan? Jon: Yes, I do. Luis: Unless you get paid in Bitcoin or PayPal? Jon: Technically, even when I get paid and Bitcoin and PayPal, I am supposed to pay a tax on that, and I think it would look highly suspicious if I was living here and didn’t declare any income. They probably come around and ask questions about that.


Luis: So are they pretty sniffy towards that kind of stuff? Jon: They’re becoming more so. As you might also be aware, the Japanese government is practically bankrupt. I think their debt here is something like 200% of GDP. It is some of the highest in the world. Luis: Oh my. Jon: And they are really scrounging for new ways to try and pay that off. Yeah. They’ve done all kinds of crazy schemes, like massive quantitative easing. I think they are even talking about helicopter money here now. The banks already pay negative interest rates, so pretty much every Keynesian idea you can think of, they’re talking about it here in Japan or even attempting it. Luis: That is actually––to me, that is kind of good news, because there are a lot of opportunities that people like us get to take advantage of. Jon: What you mean take advantage? Luis: Like if they are so desperate for money and they go bankrupt, a lot of things can go––they’re going to be selling assets. You can buy things for really cheap. Jon: Yeah. I guess if they sell them. Luis: Yeah. They’re going to have to for survival purposes, you know, now that they are even subsidizing apartments for people… So somehow they’re going to have to let go of somewhere, which could be a good opportunity for all of us to be mindful of. Yeah. So that could work. Jon: One other thing about Japan is it has really interesting demographics. I think it is probably the oldest population in the world, so you’ll notice just walking around the streets, there are a lot of old people here. And so the young people are noticeably absent, especially if you go outside the city. So if you go into some regional city or small town, you will see almost no kids or no one under the age of 40 at all. Luis: Why is that? Jon: Just an incredibly low birthrate. They had a huge Baby Boomer population here in Japan, and they are all hitting their 60s now, so I think something like 25% of the population is over 60. It is probably the highest in the world. And those people also hold most of the country’s wealth. They got it saved away in real estate and just saved in banks.


The Japanese aren’t really huge on equities and stocks and investing that kind of thing, so they tend to lock away their money into savings, or they will put it into real estate. That tends to be the most popular thing. So if you want to buy properties, as these old people get older and pass away, then there are more properties to buy. Yeah. There are more opportunities there. Luis: That is kind of exciting, and I guess the whole idea that social progress happens one interval at a time. Jon: Yeah. Another thing about Japan is they are also the world’s longestliving people, so 25% of the population is over 60. Soon that is going to be 25% of the population over 90, I think. Luis: That is funny and true. Jon: Yes. Luis: So they are pretty healthy. Jon: Indeed. Luis: Thank you so much, Jon. This has really been fabulous. I really appreciate it. Jon: Yeah. I hope I got some useful information. I think because I am kind of middleaged and married with a kid now, I’m not sure that I’m much of an expert on coming to Japan and being that new arrival again. Luis: Well, I think that your perspective is even better because you are settled. You are seasoned, and you have a lot of experience, and that is exactly what I was looking for in this interview. This is something that somebody that is new and has rosy eyes on a place, you have more awareness of how things work, and I appreciate that. I’m sure that a lot of people reading this will also appreciate it. Jon: Cool. Thanks, Luis. Luis: Dear Subscribers, this is Luis Fernando Mises with our friend Jon from Australia that is in Tokyo. Thank you so much, and we will catch you next time.

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In Closing… Penn Jillette

The way the media tend to present libertarians is that we’re conservatives, or we’re people with money who want to smoke dope. And it’s really not true at all for me. I do not come to libertarianism because I’m a really successful businessperson, or a CEO, or because I have to fight regulations.... ...I started thinking that one really good definition of government is that government is supposed to have a monopoly on force. The government is the guys with the guns, and we are the people who tell the government what they can do. So in my morality, I shouldn’t be able to tell anyone to do something with a gun that I wouldn’t do myself... ...I’ve read such wonderful defenses of the invisible hand, and I know how important it is to let the free market work—but I can’t say in good conscience that I’m absolutely sure that if you took regulations away and let the free market run wild that everyone would be doing better and everyone would be happy and everyone would be living in utopia. It makes sense that it would work, but I don’t know. But I do know that if this is a government by the people, and I’m one of the people, and the government is the one with guns—I know that it is immoral for me to use the government to use force, to use guns, to do anything that I wouldn’t do myself. Penn Jillette is an American magician, juggler, comedian, musician, inventor, actor, and bestselling author known for his work with fellow magician Teller as half of the team Penn & Teller. He is also known for his advocacy of atheism, scientific skepticism, libertarianism and freemarket capitalism.

Disclaimer: The Dollar Vigilante needs no disclaimer. Everythingwesayhere iswhatwebelieve.Furthermoreweneednodisclaimerbecausewebelieve thatallnationstates,governments, securitiesagenciesor other legislative bodies are illegitimate and we do not recognize them nor believe we need their permission to say what we feel about anytopicandfrankly think it ishilarious thatpeople thinka government body should be there to protect them. However, becauseweknowthatallmannerofGovernmentagencieswill comeafterus just forshowingsuchdisdain for themwearegoingto includeastandard,cookiecutterdisclaimerbelowjust to keep them off our backs. Enjoy reading it, bureaucrats at the SEC. Information contained in The Dollar Vigilante Emails or on The Dollar Vigilante website (www.dollarvigilante.com) is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The information contained in such publications is not intended to constitute individual investment advice and is not designed to meetyourpersonal financial situation.Theopinions expressed in suchpublicationsare thoseof thepublisherandaresubject tochangewithoutnotice.The information insuchpublicationsmaybecomeoutdatedandthere isnoobligationtoupdateany such information. Jeff Berwick, Ed Bugos and other analysts or employees of The Dollar Vigilantemayfromtimetotimehavepositions in thesecuritiesorcommoditiescovered inthesepublicationsorwebsite.Any Dollar Vigilante publication or web site and its content and images, as well as all copyright, trademark and other rights therein, are owned by TheDollarVigilante (TDV).NoportionofanyTDV publication or web site may be extractedorreproducedwithoutpermissionofTheDollarVigilante.Unauthorizeduse, reproductionorrebroadcastofanycontentofanyTDVpublicationorwebsite, including communicating investment recommendations in such publication or web site to nonsubscribers in any manner, is prohibited and shall be considered an infringement and/or misappropriation of the proprietary rights of TDV. TDV reserves the right to cancel any subscription at any time, and if it does so it will promptly refund tothesubscriber theamountof thesubscriptionpaymentpreviouslyreceivedrelating to the remaining subscription period. Cancellation of a subscription may result from any unauthorized use or reproduction or rebroadcast of any TDV publication or website, any infringement or misappropriation of TDV proprietary rights, or any other reason determined in the sole discretion of TDV.


September Dispatch - The Dollar Vigilante...David Rockefeller wrote in his memoirs in 2003, "Some...

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