September 2019 Vietnam Industrial - pdf.savills.asia · 3 Vietnam Industrial H1/2019 Source:...
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Vietnam IndustrialH1/2019
SPOTLIGHT
Savills Research
September 2019
3
Vietnam Industrial H1/2019
Source: VinaCapital, “Is Vietnam “Too Full” For More FDI?”, 2019
2
Vietnam Industrial H1/2019
The US-China trade war, additional investment and new free trade agreements have all had a positive e�ect on Viet Nam’s industrial sector. The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) became o cial in January while the EU Viet Nam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) was signed in June 2019. This historic and ambitious agreement will eliminate 99% of customs duties and has raised interest in industrial property.
Regional Comprehensive and Economic Partnership (RCEP) negotiations are underway and are expected to be finalised at the end of 2019. The agreement will increase cooperation between ASEAN countries and the six Asia-Pacific states with existing free trade agreements.
By enabling the latest production technologies and increasing workforce training, the government is actively easing qualms around viability, labour shortages and rising costs for a more transparent business environment.
Source: Asia Business Consulting
Overview With 25% tari�s on US$250 billion worth of Chinese imports and the possibility of an additional 10% on goods worth US$300 billion, the trade war is driving companies to diversify and relocate. Vietnam has a low-cost labor force, stable government and one of the fastest global growth rates – all appealing features leading to a fertile investment environment.
China to Viet Nam movers
Overview of Viet Nam’s FTAs, 2019
U.S.-ChinaTension
Company Nationality Status(Expected)
Location in Vietnam Industry
Hanwa Aero Engine
Yokowo
Huafu Fashion
Goertek
TCL
Foxconn
Lenovo
Nintendo
Sharp
Kyocera
Asiscs
Moved
Moved
Moved
Moving
Under consideration
Under consideration
Under consideration
Under consideration
Under consideration
Under consideration
Moving
Hanoi
Ha Nam
Long An
Binh Duong
Bac Giang, Quang Ninh
Bac Ninh
TBD
Binh Duong
Hai Phong
TBD
Bac Ninh
Aerospace manufacturing
Automotive components
Textiles & garments
Electronics - TV manufacturing
Electronics - TV hardware
Electronics - Computer hardware
Electronics - Gaming consoles
Electronics - Camera modules
Electronics - Printers, copiers
Footwear production
AirPods manufacturingEVFTAEFTA
RCEP
Vie
tnam
- E
FTA
EU
Switzeland
Iceland
Liechtenstein
NorwayTaiwan papua new guinea USA Indonesia Thailand Philipines Laos
Cambodia
Myanmar
IndiaNew ZealandJapanAustralia
China KoreaRussiaHong Kong
Peru Mexico
Canada Chile
Vietnam
Brunei
CPTPP
Singapore
Malaysia
APEC
ASE
AN
3
Vietnam Industrial H1/2019
Source: VinaCapital, “Is Vietnam “Too Full” For More FDI?”, 2019
2
Vietnam Industrial H1/2019
The US-China trade war, additional investment and new free trade agreements have all had a positive e�ect on Viet Nam’s industrial sector. The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) became o cial in January while the EU Viet Nam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) was signed in June 2019. This historic and ambitious agreement will eliminate 99% of customs duties and has raised interest in industrial property.
Regional Comprehensive and Economic Partnership (RCEP) negotiations are underway and are expected to be finalised at the end of 2019. The agreement will increase cooperation between ASEAN countries and the six Asia-Pacific states with existing free trade agreements.
By enabling the latest production technologies and increasing workforce training, the government is actively easing qualms around viability, labour shortages and rising costs for a more transparent business environment.
Source: Asia Business Consulting
Overview With 25% tari�s on US$250 billion worth of Chinese imports and the possibility of an additional 10% on goods worth US$300 billion, the trade war is driving companies to diversify and relocate. Vietnam has a low-cost labor force, stable government and one of the fastest global growth rates – all appealing features leading to a fertile investment environment.
China to Viet Nam movers
Overview of Viet Nam’s FTAs, 2019
U.S.-ChinaTension
Company Nationality Status(Expected)
Location in Vietnam Industry
Hanwa Aero Engine
Yokowo
Huafu Fashion
Goertek
TCL
Foxconn
Lenovo
Nintendo
Sharp
Kyocera
Asiscs
Moved
Moved
Moved
Moving
Under consideration
Under consideration
Under consideration
Under consideration
Under consideration
Under consideration
Moving
Hanoi
Ha Nam
Long An
Binh Duong
Bac Giang, Quang Ninh
Bac Ninh
TBD
Binh Duong
Hai Phong
TBD
Bac Ninh
Aerospace manufacturing
Automotive components
Textiles & garments
Electronics - TV manufacturing
Electronics - TV hardware
Electronics - Computer hardware
Electronics - Gaming consoles
Electronics - Camera modules
Electronics - Printers, copiers
Footwear production
AirPods manufacturingEVFTAEFTA
RCEP
Vie
tnam
- E
FTA
EU
Switzeland
Iceland
Liechtenstein
NorwayTaiwan papua new guinea USA Indonesia Thailand Philipines Laos
Cambodia
Myanmar
IndiaNew ZealandJapanAustralia
China KoreaRussiaHong Kong
Peru Mexico
Canada Chile
Vietnam
Brunei
CPTPP
Singapore
Malaysia
APEC
ASE
AN
Vietnam Industrial H1/2019
5
Vietnam Industrial H1/2019
4
Regional
Source: CIA World Factbook
Source: FocusEconomics
Population, 2018
Age structure, 2018
GDP growth, 2019
1. 6.8%Vietnam
2. 6.2%Philippines
3. 5.8%Indonesia
4. 4.5%Malaysia
5. 3.5%Thailand
6. 2.4%Singapore
Source: ADB, 2019
Vietnam remains the fastest growing economy in Southeast Asia in 2019
Source: World Bank, 2018
Ease of Doing Business, World Bank 2018
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Vietnam is ranked 69th among 190 economies for ease of doing business
Sing
apor
e
Mal
aysi
a
Thai
land
Viet
nam
Indo
nesi
a
Chin
a
Philli
ppin
es
Cam
bodi
a
Laos
Mya
nmar
265.3
94.6
69.2
32.4
1,396 China
Vietnam
Thailand
Malaysia
Indonesia
17%
12%
48%
11%
11%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
China Thailand Vietnam Indonesia Malaysia
27%
16%
41%
8%6%
25%
17%
42%
9%7%
23%
16%
46%
9%6%
17%
14%
46%
12%
11%
0-14 years 15-24 years 25-54 years 55-64 years > 65 years
(million people)
Manufacturing workers’ salary, 2018
Source: Trading Economics
Malaysia
924
China
866
Thailand
412
Vietnam
237
Indonesia
190
(US$/mth)
Vietnam Industrial H1/2019
5
Vietnam Industrial H1/2019
4
Regional
Source: CIA World Factbook
Source: FocusEconomics
Population, 2018
Age structure, 2018
GDP growth, 2019
1. 6.8%Vietnam
2. 6.2%Philippines
3. 5.8%Indonesia
4. 4.5%Malaysia
5. 3.5%Thailand
6. 2.4%Singapore
Source: ADB, 2019
Vietnam remains the fastest growing economy in Southeast Asia in 2019
Source: World Bank, 2018
Ease of Doing Business, World Bank 2018
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Vietnam is ranked 69th among 190 economies for ease of doing business
Sing
apor
e
Mal
aysi
a
Thai
land
Viet
nam
Indo
nesi
a
Chin
a
Philli
ppin
es
Cam
bodi
a
Laos
Mya
nmar
265.3
94.6
69.2
32.4
1,396 China
Vietnam
Thailand
Malaysia
Indonesia
17%
12%
48%
11%
11%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
China Thailand Vietnam Indonesia Malaysia
27%
16%
41%
8%6%
25%
17%
42%
9%7%
23%
16%
46%
9%6%
17%
14%
46%
12%
11%
0-14 years 15-24 years 25-54 years 55-64 years > 65 years
(million people)
Manufacturing workers’ salary, 2018
Source: Trading Economics
Malaysia
924
China
866
Thailand
412
Vietnam
237
Indonesia
190
(US$/mth)
Vietnam Industrial H1/2019
10
Vietnam Industrial H1/2019
6
Northern Vietnam, H1/2019
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Bac Ninh Hai Phong Ha Noi Hung Yen Vinh Phuc Hai Duong
ha
US$/m
2/term
Occupied (ha) Vacant area (ha) Rent
-
50
100
150
200
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Dong Nai Binh Duong BRVT Long An HCMC Tay Ninh
ha
Occupied (ha) Vacant area (ha) Rent
US$/m
2/term
Source: Savills Industrial Services
Source: Savills Industrial Services
Southern Vietnam, H1/2019
Source: Trading Economics Source: Trading Economics
47.6
49.6
49.9
50.3
52.6
40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54
Malaysia
Indonesia
China
Thailand
Vietnam
PMI, Jul 2019 Industrial Production, Jul 2019
- 5.5%
6.3%
3.9%
2.6%
9.6%
-6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
Thailand
China
Malaysia
Indonesia
Vietnam
In the first three months of 2019, imports to the US from Vietnam rose 40.2% year-on-year (YoY). The U.S. continued to be the biggest importer of Vietnamese goods, purchasing:
• US$4.42 billion worth of garments-textiles, up 9.1% YoY;• US$2 billion in footwear (13.5%);• US$1.3 billion of machinery, equipment, and spare parts (54%);• US$1.42 billion of wood and timber products, increasing 34.7 percent.
US imports, Q1/2019
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
China
Canada
Ireland
Germany
UK
Japan
Mexico
Italy
India
France
South Korea
Vietnam
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019
Construction costs, 2018
$-
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
Basic Warehouse & Factory ($/m2) Large WH/Distribution Center ($/m2) Hi-Tech Factory ($/m2)
Source: Turner & Townsend, International Construction Market Survey, 2018
Vietnam(HCMC)
China(Beijing & Shanghai)
India(Bangalore)
Indonesia(Jakarta)
Malaysia(Kuala Lumpur)
Performance
8
Vietnam Industrial H1/2019
7
Vietnam Industrial H1/2019
Viet Nam’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 52.5 in June, the highest for H1/2019 and reached the critical 50-point expansion threshold. According to Focus-Economics, Q2/2019 was higher than Q1/2019, showing the strength of the manufacturing sector despite ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions. The increase was due to new orders, recovery in employment rates, the launch of new products and increased customers.
In H1/2019, 1,723 new projects registered capital investment of US$7.41 billion. The manufacturing and processing sector attracted 605 new projects, accounting for 71.2% of FDI at US$13.15 billion, up 39.8% YoY.
Hanoi and HCMC were the best performers, obtaining 26.3% and 16.7% of FDI respectively, with Binh Duong receiving 7.4% and Dong Nai with 6.7 percent. Investments from Hong Kong accounted for 28.7% of registered FDI with US$5.3 billion, followed by Korea with US$2.73 billion and China with US$2.28 billion.
Industrial parks (IPs) and economic zones (EZs) attracted approximately 340 FDI projects with newly registered capital of US$8.7 billion. (Minister of Planning and Investment, 2019)
IIP rose 9.1% YoY in H1/2019; manufacturing and processing increased 11.2%, leading economic growth. According to the GSO, essential industrial products with IIP growth were crude iron and steel (60%); petroleum (58%); paint (15%); aquaculture feed (14%) and handsets (14%).
Source: Asia Business Consulting
Manufacturing PMI Industrial FDI
Index of Industrial Production (IIP)
Source: Focus-Economics
Source: Ministry of Planning and Investment, 2019
PMI, June 2018 – June 2019
IIP, June 2018 – June 2019
FDI H1/2019
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
June
-18
Jul-1
8
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-
19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-
19
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
June
-18
Jul-1
8
Aug-18
Sep-
18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-
19
Feb-
19
Mar
-19
Apr-19
May
-19
Jun-
19
High production growth H1/2019
70%
40%
18%
12%
11%
Coal and refinedmining products
Metal
Oreexploitation
Motorvehicles
Textile andgarment
16%
7.1%
5.7%
71.2%
Manufacturing & Processing
Real Estate
Retail, Wholesale & Repair
Other
Transactions, H1/2019
Project Nationality Industrial Park ProvinceInvestment
(US$)
Beerco Limited Tu Liem Industrial Cluster Hanoi 4 bil
Goertek Co., Ltd. Que Vo Industrial Park Bac Ninh 260 mil
ACTR Company Limited Phuoc Dong Industrial Park Tay Ninh 280 mil
Advance Vietnam Tire Co., Ltd Long Giang Industrial Park Tien Giang 214 mil
Royal Pagoda Private Limited VSIP Nghe An Nghe An 200 mil
Meiko Electronics Vietnam Co., Ltd Hanoi 200 mil
Universal Alloy Corporation(UAC)
Da Nang Hi-Tech Park Danang 170 mil
TTI, Inc. Saigon Hi-Tech Park (SHTP) HCMC 150 mil
Changshin Vietnam Co. Ltd Tan Phu Industrial Park Dong Nai 100 mil
Thach That -Quoc Oai Industrial Zone
H1/2019 Supply326 Established IPS
95,500 ha total area65,600 ha industrial land (68.7%)
251 Operational 60,900ha(74% Occupancy)75 under construction, site clearance or compensation
17 Coastal Economic Zones845,000 ha
3.6 million workers in IPs and EZs in 1H/2019
Although occupancy in key provinces grew YoY, available land coupled with an array of upcoming projects has seen foreign companies significantly increasing investment in Vietnam. Manufacturers are showing interest in the Central Regions while developers are actively converting agricultural land to industrial usage, guaranteeing additional supply.
John Campbell,Senior Consultant,Industrial Services
8
Vietnam Industrial H1/2019
7
Vietnam Industrial H1/2019
Viet Nam’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 52.5 in June, the highest for H1/2019 and reached the critical 50-point expansion threshold. According to Focus-Economics, Q2/2019 was higher than Q1/2019, showing the strength of the manufacturing sector despite ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions. The increase was due to new orders, recovery in employment rates, the launch of new products and increased customers.
In H1/2019, 1,723 new projects registered capital investment of US$7.41 billion. The manufacturing and processing sector attracted 605 new projects, accounting for 71.2% of FDI at US$13.15 billion, up 39.8% YoY.
Hanoi and HCMC were the best performers, obtaining 26.3% and 16.7% of FDI respectively, with Binh Duong receiving 7.4% and Dong Nai with 6.7 percent. Investments from Hong Kong accounted for 28.7% of registered FDI with US$5.3 billion, followed by Korea with US$2.73 billion and China with US$2.28 billion.
Industrial parks (IPs) and economic zones (EZs) attracted approximately 340 FDI projects with newly registered capital of US$8.7 billion. (Minister of Planning and Investment, 2019)
IIP rose 9.1% YoY in H1/2019; manufacturing and processing increased 11.2%, leading economic growth. According to the GSO, essential industrial products with IIP growth were crude iron and steel (60%); petroleum (58%); paint (15%); aquaculture feed (14%) and handsets (14%).
Source: Asia Business Consulting
Manufacturing PMI Industrial FDI
Index of Industrial Production (IIP)
Source: Focus-Economics
Source: Ministry of Planning and Investment, 2019
PMI, June 2018 – June 2019
IIP, June 2018 – June 2019
FDI H1/2019
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
June
-18
Jul-1
8
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-
19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-
19
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
June
-18
Jul-1
8
Aug-18
Sep-
18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-
19
Feb-
19
Mar
-19
Apr-19
May
-19
Jun-
19
High production growth H1/2019
70%
40%
18%
12%
11%
Coal and refinedmining products
Metal
Oreexploitation
Motorvehicles
Textile andgarment
16%
7.1%
5.7%
71.2%
Manufacturing & Processing
Real Estate
Retail, Wholesale & Repair
Other
Transactions, H1/2019
Project Nationality Industrial Park ProvinceInvestment
(US$)
Beerco Limited Tu Liem Industrial Cluster Hanoi 4 bil
Goertek Co., Ltd. Que Vo Industrial Park Bac Ninh 260 mil
ACTR Company Limited Phuoc Dong Industrial Park Tay Ninh 280 mil
Advance Vietnam Tire Co., Ltd Long Giang Industrial Park Tien Giang 214 mil
Royal Pagoda Private Limited VSIP Nghe An Nghe An 200 mil
Meiko Electronics Vietnam Co., Ltd Hanoi 200 mil
Universal Alloy Corporation(UAC)
Da Nang Hi-Tech Park Danang 170 mil
TTI, Inc. Saigon Hi-Tech Park (SHTP) HCMC 150 mil
Changshin Vietnam Co. Ltd Tan Phu Industrial Park Dong Nai 100 mil
Thach That -Quoc Oai Industrial Zone
H1/2019 Supply326 Established IPS
95,500 ha total area65,600 ha industrial land (68.7%)
251 Operational 60,900ha(74% Occupancy)75 under construction, site clearance or compensation
17 Coastal Economic Zones845,000 ha
3.6 million workers in IPs and EZs in 1H/2019
Although occupancy in key provinces grew YoY, available land coupled with an array of upcoming projects has seen foreign companies significantly increasing investment in Vietnam. Manufacturers are showing interest in the Central Regions while developers are actively converting agricultural land to industrial usage, guaranteeing additional supply.
John Campbell,Senior Consultant,Industrial Services
9
Vietnam Industrial H1/2019 Vietnam Industrial H1/2019
15
Rise of rental options
Despite occupancy in key provinces increasing YoY, numerous future projects allow foreign companies to increase investment. With interest in the industrial market at an all-time high, developers are actively converting agricultural land to industrial, ensuring additional supply. The central economic zone has captured the attention of foreign manufacturers; Nghe An, Hue, Quang Nam and Quang Ngai all o�er new projects with competitive pricing.
Michael Kokalari, Chief Economist at VinaCapital, believes that concerns around labor supply mainly stem from manufacturers with tight margins in “low-value-added” industries such as garment and furniture. Kokalari stated that Viet Nam has yet to reach its full potential, adding that:
• With 10% of the workforce in the FDI sector and 40% in the agricultural industry, there is excellent potential for labor to shift “from the farm to the factory”, fueling industrialisation.
• The manufacturing sector only contributes approximately 20% of Viet Nam’s GDP, falling short of other ‘Asian Tiger’ economies, which peaked at 30% GDP.
Su�cient capacity
The industrial sector is growing strongly with a tenfold increase in FDI over the last decade. Good land supply is facilitating incoming manufacturing projects and the rise of rental options with RBF and BTS solutions. Viet Nam must be more selective with projects to move up the value chain, improve competitiveness and ensure sustainable growth.
Low labor costs and government incentives, particularly preferential tax rates, will continue to be critical drivers of FDI. However, to maintain the transition to higher-value industries, Viet Nam must focus on the quality rather than the number of investments. Recommendations for FDI Strategy for 2020-2030 by the Ministry of Planning and Investment and International Finance Corporation (IFC) outlined the steps required to increase the quality of foreign investment:
• Creating a national skills development plan to increase the share of skilled labor; • Modernizing investment promotion activities and focus of priority sectors; • Implement supporting policies to support local firms; • Open service sectors such as education, logistics and financial services;• Set up a new FDI management agency with higher budget, capacity and authority;• Review and adjust current investment incentives and policies to ensure FDI quality, and; • Reduce the negative impact of Industry 4.0.
Outlook
H1/2019 FDI(US$)
TotalArea
(ha)
TotalLeasableArea (ha)
Projects Occupancy Rent
Sout
hern
- P
rovi
ncia
l Ind
exN
ort
hern
- P
rovi
ncia
l Ind
ex
Ho Chi Minh City
Binh Duong
Dong Nai
Long An
Ba Ria-Vung Tau
Tay Ninh
Bac Ninh
Hung Yen
Hai Phong
Hai Duong
Vinh Phuc
Hanoi
2019 PCI(Rank/province)
2nd highest 10th/634,703 2,620 22 24.3%
YoYstable3.08B 65.34
3rd highest 6th/6310,040 6,296 30 27.6%
YoY1.37B 66.09 54.6%
YoY
4th highest 26th/639,216 6,317 31 20.8%
YoY1.23B 63.84 21.1%
YoY
15th highest 3rd/635,827 3,523 21 3.8%
YoY268M 68.09 26.7%
YoY
7th highest 21st/638,924 5,168 11 1.4%
YoY680M 64.02 7.8%
YoY
26th highest 14th/633,390 2,619 6 63.6%
YoY714M 64.54 31.1%
YoY
1st highest 9th/633,432 1,624 10 8.5%
YoY4.87B 65.40 8.6%
YoY
5th highest 15th/635,107 3,651 13 6.3%
YoY1.01B 64.50 13%
YoY
13th highest 58th/631,704 1,226 8 6.2%
YoY299M 60.66 6.7%
YoY
9th highest 16th/63 4,658 2,656 11 10%
YoY536M 64.48 4.5%
YoY
10th highest 55th/631,449 980 8 18.8%
YoY444M 60.98 29.4%
YoY
16th highest 13th/631,391 997 6 11.1%
YoY227M 64.55 8.8%
YoY
Developer Nationality Total Area (ha) RBF Sites Provinces
247 10HCMC, Binh Duong, Dong Nai,
Bac Ninh, Hai Duong, Hai Phong
120 8 Dong Nai, Hanoi, Bac Ninh
12.6 2 Dong Nai
6 1 Dong Nai
Source: VinaCapital, “Is Vietnam “Too Full” For More FDI?” 2019
9
Vietnam Industrial H1/2019 Vietnam Industrial H1/2019
15
Rise of rental options
Despite occupancy in key provinces increasing YoY, numerous future projects allow foreign companies to increase investment. With interest in the industrial market at an all-time high, developers are actively converting agricultural land to industrial, ensuring additional supply. The central economic zone has captured the attention of foreign manufacturers; Nghe An, Hue, Quang Nam and Quang Ngai all o�er new projects with competitive pricing.
Michael Kokalari, Chief Economist at VinaCapital, believes that concerns around labor supply mainly stem from manufacturers with tight margins in “low-value-added” industries such as garment and furniture. Kokalari stated that Viet Nam has yet to reach its full potential, adding that:
• With 10% of the workforce in the FDI sector and 40% in the agricultural industry, there is excellent potential for labor to shift “from the farm to the factory”, fueling industrialisation.
• The manufacturing sector only contributes approximately 20% of Viet Nam’s GDP, falling short of other ‘Asian Tiger’ economies, which peaked at 30% GDP.
Su�cient capacity
The industrial sector is growing strongly with a tenfold increase in FDI over the last decade. Good land supply is facilitating incoming manufacturing projects and the rise of rental options with RBF and BTS solutions. Viet Nam must be more selective with projects to move up the value chain, improve competitiveness and ensure sustainable growth.
Low labor costs and government incentives, particularly preferential tax rates, will continue to be critical drivers of FDI. However, to maintain the transition to higher-value industries, Viet Nam must focus on the quality rather than the number of investments. Recommendations for FDI Strategy for 2020-2030 by the Ministry of Planning and Investment and International Finance Corporation (IFC) outlined the steps required to increase the quality of foreign investment:
• Creating a national skills development plan to increase the share of skilled labor; • Modernizing investment promotion activities and focus of priority sectors; • Implement supporting policies to support local firms; • Open service sectors such as education, logistics and financial services;• Set up a new FDI management agency with higher budget, capacity and authority;• Review and adjust current investment incentives and policies to ensure FDI quality, and; • Reduce the negative impact of Industry 4.0.
Outlook
H1/2019 FDI(US$)
TotalArea
(ha)
TotalLeasableArea (ha)
Projects Occupancy Rent
Sout
hern
- P
rovi
ncia
l Ind
exN
ort
hern
- P
rovi
ncia
l Ind
ex
Ho Chi Minh City
Binh Duong
Dong Nai
Long An
Ba Ria-Vung Tau
Tay Ninh
Bac Ninh
Hung Yen
Hai Phong
Hai Duong
Vinh Phuc
Hanoi
2019 PCI(Rank/province)
2nd highest 10th/634,703 2,620 22 24.3%
YoYstable3.08B 65.34
3rd highest 6th/6310,040 6,296 30 27.6%
YoY1.37B 66.09 54.6%
YoY
4th highest 26th/639,216 6,317 31 20.8%
YoY1.23B 63.84 21.1%
YoY
15th highest 3rd/635,827 3,523 21 3.8%
YoY268M 68.09 26.7%
YoY
7th highest 21st/638,924 5,168 11 1.4%
YoY680M 64.02 7.8%
YoY
26th highest 14th/633,390 2,619 6 63.6%
YoY714M 64.54 31.1%
YoY
1st highest 9th/633,432 1,624 10 8.5%
YoY4.87B 65.40 8.6%
YoY
5th highest 15th/635,107 3,651 13 6.3%
YoY1.01B 64.50 13%
YoY
13th highest 58th/631,704 1,226 8 6.2%
YoY299M 60.66 6.7%
YoY
9th highest 16th/63 4,658 2,656 11 10%
YoY536M 64.48 4.5%
YoY
10th highest 55th/631,449 980 8 18.8%
YoY444M 60.98 29.4%
YoY
16th highest 13th/631,391 997 6 11.1%
YoY227M 64.55 8.8%
YoY
Developer Nationality Total Area (ha) RBF Sites Provinces
247 10HCMC, Binh Duong, Dong Nai,
Bac Ninh, Hai Duong, Hai Phong
120 8 Dong Nai, Hanoi, Bac Ninh
12.6 2 Dong Nai
6 1 Dong Nai
Source: VinaCapital, “Is Vietnam “Too Full” For More FDI?” 2019
Vietnam Industrial H1/2019
10
Vietnam Industrial H1/2019
6
Northern Vietnam, H1/2019
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Bac Ninh Hai Phong Ha Noi Hung Yen Vinh Phuc Hai Duong
haU
S$/m2/term
Occupied (ha) Vacant area (ha) Rent
-
50
100
150
200
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Dong Nai Binh Duong BRVT Long An HCMC Tay Ninh
ha
Occupied (ha) Vacant area (ha) Rent
US$/m
2/term
Source: Savills Industrial Services
Source: Savills Industrial Services
Southern Vietnam, H1/2019
Source: Trading Economics Source: Trading Economics
47.6
49.6
49.9
50.3
52.6
40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54
Malaysia
Indonesia
China
Thailand
Vietnam
PMI, Jul 2019 Industrial Production, Jul 2019
- 5.5%
6.3%
3.9%
2.6%
9.6%
-6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
Thailand
China
Malaysia
Indonesia
Vietnam
In the first three months of 2019, imports to the US from Vietnam rose 40.2% year-on-year (YoY). The U.S. continued to be the biggest importer of Vietnamese goods, purchasing:
• US$4.42 billion worth of garments-textiles, up 9.1% YoY;• US$2 billion in footwear (13.5%);• US$1.3 billion of machinery, equipment, and spare parts (54%);• US$1.42 billion of wood and timber products, increasing 34.7 percent.
US imports, Q1/2019
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
China
Canada
Ireland
Germany
UK
Japan
Mexico
Italy
India
France
South Korea
Vietnam
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019
Construction costs, 2018
$-
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
Basic Warehouse & Factory ($/m2) Large WH/Distribution Center ($/m2) Hi-Tech Factory ($/m2)
Source: Turner & Townsend, International Construction Market Survey, 2018
Vietnam(HCMC)
China(Beijing & Shanghai)
India(Bangalore)
Indonesia(Jakarta)
Malaysia(Kuala Lumpur)
Performance
12
Vietnam Industrial H1/2019
11
Vietnam Industrial H1/2019
H1/2019 FDI
HO CHI MINH CITY
US$3.08 billion2nd highest
2019 ProvincialCompetitivenessIndex (PCI)
65.34 pointsRank: 10th
Total Area(ha) 4,703
TotalLeasable Area(ha) 2,620
Number of Projects 22
24.3% YoY
Stable0 50 100 150 200
Rent(US$/m2)
Occupancy(%)
Occupancy
Rent
H1/2019 FDI
BINH DUONG PROVINCE
US$1.37 billion3rd highest
2019 ProvincialCompetitivenessIndex (PCI)
66.09 pointsRank: 6th
Total Area (ha) 10,040
Total Leasable Area(ha) 6,296
Number of Projects 30Rent(US$/m2)
Occupancy(%)
94 96 98 100 102 104
DONG NAI PROVINCE
2019 Rent(US$/m2)
2019Occupancy(%)
91.5 92 92.5 93 93.5
LONG AN PROVINCE
2019 Rent(US$/m2)
2019Occupancy(%)
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Southern Vietnam Overview Southern Vietnam Overview
27.6% YoYOccupancy
54.6% YoYRent
H1/2019 FDI US$1.23 billion4th highest
2019 ProvincialCompetitivenessIndex (PCI)
63.84 pointsRank: 26th
Total Area (ha) 9,216
Total Leasable Area(ha) 6,317
Number of Projects 31
20.8% YoYOccupancy
21.1% YoYRent
H1/2019 FDI US$268 million15th highest
2019 ProvincialCompetitivenessIndex (PCI)
68.09 pointsRank: 3rd
Total Area (ha) 5,827
Total Leasable Area(ha) 3,523
Number of Projects 21
3.7% YoYOccupancy
26.7% YoYRent
12
Vietnam Industrial H1/2019
11
Vietnam Industrial H1/2019
H1/2019 FDI
HO CHI MINH CITY
US$3.08 billion2nd highest
2019 ProvincialCompetitivenessIndex (PCI)
65.34 pointsRank: 10th
Total Area(ha) 4,703
TotalLeasable Area(ha) 2,620
Number of Projects 22
24.3% YoY
Stable0 50 100 150 200
Rent(US$/m2)
Occupancy(%)
Occupancy
Rent
H1/2019 FDI
BINH DUONG PROVINCE
US$1.37 billion3rd highest
2019 ProvincialCompetitivenessIndex (PCI)
66.09 pointsRank: 6th
Total Area (ha) 10,040
Total Leasable Area(ha) 6,296
Number of Projects 30Rent(US$/m2)
Occupancy(%)
94 96 98 100 102 104
DONG NAI PROVINCE
2019 Rent(US$/m2)
2019Occupancy(%)
91.5 92 92.5 93 93.5
LONG AN PROVINCE
2019 Rent(US$/m2)
2019Occupancy(%)
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Southern Vietnam Overview Southern Vietnam Overview
27.6% YoYOccupancy
54.6% YoYRent
H1/2019 FDI US$1.23 billion4th highest
2019 ProvincialCompetitivenessIndex (PCI)
63.84 pointsRank: 26th
Total Area (ha) 9,216
Total Leasable Area(ha) 6,317
Number of Projects 31
20.8% YoYOccupancy
21.1% YoYRent
H1/2019 FDI US$268 million15th highest
2019 ProvincialCompetitivenessIndex (PCI)
68.09 pointsRank: 3rd
Total Area (ha) 5,827
Total Leasable Area(ha) 3,523
Number of Projects 21
3.7% YoYOccupancy
26.7% YoYRent
13
Vietnam Industrial H1/2019
13
Vietnam Industrial H1/2019
HANOI
Rent(US$/m2)
Occupancy(%)
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
BA RIA-VUNG TAU PROVINCE
Rent(US$/m2)
Occupancy(%)
0 20 40 60 80
BAC NINH PROVINCE
Rent(US$/m2)
Occupancy(%)
84 85 86 87 88
Northern Vietnam OverviewSouthern Vietnam Overview
H1/2019 FDI US$4.87 billion1st highest
2019 ProvincialCompetitivenessIndex (PCI)
65.40 pointsRank: 9th
Total Area (ha) 3,432
Total Leasable Area(ha) 1,624
Number of Projects 10
8.5% YoYOccupancy
8.6% YoYRent
H1/2019 FDI US$680 million7th highest
2019 ProvincialCompetitivenessIndex (PCI)
64.02 pointsRank: 21th
Total Area (ha) 8,924
Total Leasable Area(ha) 5,168
Number of Projects 11
1.4% YoYOccupancy
7.8% YoYRent
H1/2019 FDI US$1.01 billion5th highest
2019 ProvincialCompetitivenessIndex (PCI)
64.50 pointsRank: 15th
Total Area (ha) 5,107
Total Leasable Area(ha) 3,651
Number of Projects 13
6.3% YoYOccupancy
13% YoYRent
16
Vietnam Industrial H1/2019
14
Vietnam Industrial H1/2019
HUNG YEN PROVINCE
Rent(US$/m2)
Occupancy(%)
74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88
HAI PHONG PROVINCE
Rent(US$/m2)
Occupancy(%)
0 20 40 60 80 100
HAI DUONG PROVINCE
Rent(US$/m2)
Occupancy(%)
60 65 70 75 80
Northern Vietnam OverviewNorthern Vietnam Overview
H1/2019 FDI US$536 million9th highest
2019 ProvincialCompetitivenessIndex (PCI)
64.48 pointsRank: 16th
Total Area (ha) 4,658
Total Leasable Area(ha) 2,656
Number of Projects 11
10% YoYOccupancy
4.5% YoYRent
H1/2019 FDI US$444 million10th highest
2019 ProvincialCompetitivenessIndex (PCI)
60.98 pointsRank: 55th
Total Area (ha) 1,449
Total Leasable Area(ha) 980
Number of Projects 8
18.6% YoYOccupancy
29.4% YoYRent
H1/2019 FDI US$299 million13th highest
2019 ProvincialCompetitivenessIndex (PCI)
60.66 pointsRank: 58th
Total Area (ha) 1,704
Total Leasable Area(ha) 1,226
Number of Projects 8
6.2% YoYOccupancy
6.7% YoYRent
9
Vietnam Industrial H1/2019 Vietnam Industrial H1/2019
15
Rise of rental options
Despite occupancy in key provinces increasing YoY, numerous future projects allow foreign companies to increase investment. With interest in the industrial market at an all-time high, developers are actively converting agricultural land to industrial, ensuring additional supply. The central economic zone has captured the attention of foreign manufacturers; Nghe An, Hue, Quang Nam and Quang Ngai all o�er new projects with competitive pricing.
Michael Kokalari, Chief Economist at VinaCapital, believes that concerns around labor supply mainly stem from manufacturers with tight margins in “low-value-added” industries such as garment and furniture. Kokalari stated that Viet Nam has yet to reach its full potential, adding that:
• With 10% of the workforce in the FDI sector and 40% in the agricultural industry, there is excellent potential for labor to shift “from the farm to the factory”, fueling industrialisation.
• The manufacturing sector only contributes approximately 20% of Viet Nam’s GDP, falling short of other ‘Asian Tiger’ economies, which peaked at 30% GDP.
Su�cient capacity
The industrial sector is growing strongly with a tenfold increase in FDI over the last decade. Good land supply is facilitating incoming manufacturing projects and the rise of rental options with RBF and BTS solutions. Viet Nam must be more selective with projects to move up the value chain, improve competitiveness and ensure sustainable growth.
Low labor costs and government incentives, particularly preferential tax rates, will continue to be critical drivers of FDI. However, to maintain the transition to higher-value industries, Viet Nam must focus on the quality rather than the number of investments. Recommendations for FDI Strategy for 2020-2030 by the Ministry of Planning and Investment and International Finance Corporation (IFC) outlined the steps required to increase the quality of foreign investment:
• Creating a national skills development plan to increase the share of skilled labor; • Modernizing investment promotion activities and focus of priority sectors; • Implement supporting policies to support local firms; • Open service sectors such as education, logistics and financial services;• Set up a new FDI management agency with higher budget, capacity and authority;• Review and adjust current investment incentives and policies to ensure FDI quality, and; • Reduce the negative impact of Industry 4.0.
Outlook
H1/2019 FDI(US$)
TotalArea
(ha)
TotalLeasableArea (ha)
Projects Occupancy Rent
Sout
hern
- P
rovi
ncia
l Ind
exN
ort
hern
- P
rovi
ncia
l Ind
ex
Ho Chi Minh City
Binh Duong
Dong Nai
Long An
Ba Ria-Vung Tau
Tay Ninh
Bac Ninh
Hung Yen
Hai Phong
Hai Duong
Vinh Phuc
Hanoi
2019 PCI(Rank/province)
2nd highest 10th/634,703 2,620 22 24.3%
YoYstable3.08B 65.34
3rd highest 6th/6310,040 6,296 30 27.6%
YoY1.37B 66.09 54.6%
YoY
4th highest 26th/639,216 6,317 31 20.8%
YoY1.23B 63.84 21.1%
YoY
15th highest 3rd/635,827 3,523 21 3.8%
YoY268M 68.09 26.7%
YoY
7th highest 21st/638,924 5,168 11 1.4%
YoY680M 64.02 7.8%
YoY
26th highest 14th/633,390 2,619 6 63.6%
YoY714M 64.54 31.1%
YoY
1st highest 9th/633,432 1,624 10 8.5%
YoY4.87B 65.40 8.6%
YoY
5th highest 15th/635,107 3,651 13 6.3%
YoY1.01B 64.50 13%
YoY
13th highest 58th/631,704 1,226 8 6.2%
YoY299M 60.66 6.7%
YoY
9th highest 16th/63 4,658 2,656 11 10%
YoY536M 64.48 4.5%
YoY
10th highest 55th/631,449 980 8 18.8%
YoY444M 60.98 29.4%
YoY
16th highest 13th/631,391 997 6 11.1%
YoY227M 64.55 8.8%
YoY
Developer Nationality Total Area (ha) RBF Sites Provinces
247 10HCMC, Binh Duong, Dong Nai,
Bac Ninh, Hai Duong, Hai Phong
120 8 Dong Nai, Hanoi, Bac Ninh
12.6 2 Dong Nai
6 1 Dong Nai
Source: VinaCapital, “Is Vietnam “Too Full” For More FDI?” 2019
Savills ResearchWe’re a dedicated team with an unrivalled reputation for producing well-informed and accurate analysis, research and commentary across all sectors of the Vietnam property market.
Troy Gri�thsDeputy Managing Director +84 (0) 933 276 663
tgri�[email protected]
John CampbellSenior Consultant, Industrial ServiceHo Chi Minh City+84 (0) 986 718 [email protected]
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