September 2019 Vietnam Industrial - pdf.savills.asia · 3 Vietnam Industrial H1/2019 Source:...

16
Vietnam Industrial H1/2019 SPOTLIGHT Savills Research September 2019

Transcript of September 2019 Vietnam Industrial - pdf.savills.asia · 3 Vietnam Industrial H1/2019 Source:...

Page 1: September 2019 Vietnam Industrial - pdf.savills.asia · 3 Vietnam Industrial H1/2019 Source: VinaCapital, “Is Vietnam “Too Full” For More FDI?”, 2019 2 Vietnam Industrial

Vietnam IndustrialH1/2019

SPOTLIGHT

Savills Research

September 2019

Page 2: September 2019 Vietnam Industrial - pdf.savills.asia · 3 Vietnam Industrial H1/2019 Source: VinaCapital, “Is Vietnam “Too Full” For More FDI?”, 2019 2 Vietnam Industrial

3

Vietnam Industrial H1/2019

Source: VinaCapital, “Is Vietnam “Too Full” For More FDI?”, 2019

2

Vietnam Industrial H1/2019

The US-China trade war, additional investment and new free trade agreements have all had a positive e�ect on Viet Nam’s industrial sector. The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) became o cial in January while the EU Viet Nam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) was signed in June 2019. This historic and ambitious agreement will eliminate 99% of customs duties and has raised interest in industrial property.

Regional Comprehensive and Economic Partnership (RCEP) negotiations are underway and are expected to be finalised at the end of 2019. The agreement will increase cooperation between ASEAN countries and the six Asia-Pacific states with existing free trade agreements.

By enabling the latest production technologies and increasing workforce training, the government is actively easing qualms around viability, labour shortages and rising costs for a more transparent business environment.

Source: Asia Business Consulting

Overview With 25% tari�s on US$250 billion worth of Chinese imports and the possibility of an additional 10% on goods worth US$300 billion, the trade war is driving companies to diversify and relocate. Vietnam has a low-cost labor force, stable government and one of the fastest global growth rates – all appealing features leading to a fertile investment environment.

China to Viet Nam movers

Overview of Viet Nam’s FTAs, 2019

U.S.-ChinaTension

Company Nationality Status(Expected)

Location in Vietnam Industry

Hanwa Aero Engine

Yokowo

Huafu Fashion

Goertek

TCL

Foxconn

Lenovo

Nintendo

Sharp

Kyocera

Asiscs

Moved

Moved

Moved

Moving

Under consideration

Under consideration

Under consideration

Under consideration

Under consideration

Under consideration

Moving

Hanoi

Ha Nam

Long An

Binh Duong

Bac Giang, Quang Ninh

Bac Ninh

TBD

Binh Duong

Hai Phong

TBD

Bac Ninh

Aerospace manufacturing

Automotive components

Textiles & garments

Electronics - TV manufacturing

Electronics - TV hardware

Electronics - Computer hardware

Electronics - Gaming consoles

Electronics - Camera modules

Electronics - Printers, copiers

Footwear production

AirPods manufacturingEVFTAEFTA

RCEP

Vie

tnam

- E

FTA

EU

Switzeland

Iceland

Liechtenstein

NorwayTaiwan papua new guinea USA Indonesia Thailand Philipines Laos

Cambodia

Myanmar

IndiaNew ZealandJapanAustralia

China KoreaRussiaHong Kong

Peru Mexico

Canada Chile

Vietnam

Brunei

CPTPP

Singapore

Malaysia

APEC

ASE

AN

Page 3: September 2019 Vietnam Industrial - pdf.savills.asia · 3 Vietnam Industrial H1/2019 Source: VinaCapital, “Is Vietnam “Too Full” For More FDI?”, 2019 2 Vietnam Industrial

3

Vietnam Industrial H1/2019

Source: VinaCapital, “Is Vietnam “Too Full” For More FDI?”, 2019

2

Vietnam Industrial H1/2019

The US-China trade war, additional investment and new free trade agreements have all had a positive e�ect on Viet Nam’s industrial sector. The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) became o cial in January while the EU Viet Nam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) was signed in June 2019. This historic and ambitious agreement will eliminate 99% of customs duties and has raised interest in industrial property.

Regional Comprehensive and Economic Partnership (RCEP) negotiations are underway and are expected to be finalised at the end of 2019. The agreement will increase cooperation between ASEAN countries and the six Asia-Pacific states with existing free trade agreements.

By enabling the latest production technologies and increasing workforce training, the government is actively easing qualms around viability, labour shortages and rising costs for a more transparent business environment.

Source: Asia Business Consulting

Overview With 25% tari�s on US$250 billion worth of Chinese imports and the possibility of an additional 10% on goods worth US$300 billion, the trade war is driving companies to diversify and relocate. Vietnam has a low-cost labor force, stable government and one of the fastest global growth rates – all appealing features leading to a fertile investment environment.

China to Viet Nam movers

Overview of Viet Nam’s FTAs, 2019

U.S.-ChinaTension

Company Nationality Status(Expected)

Location in Vietnam Industry

Hanwa Aero Engine

Yokowo

Huafu Fashion

Goertek

TCL

Foxconn

Lenovo

Nintendo

Sharp

Kyocera

Asiscs

Moved

Moved

Moved

Moving

Under consideration

Under consideration

Under consideration

Under consideration

Under consideration

Under consideration

Moving

Hanoi

Ha Nam

Long An

Binh Duong

Bac Giang, Quang Ninh

Bac Ninh

TBD

Binh Duong

Hai Phong

TBD

Bac Ninh

Aerospace manufacturing

Automotive components

Textiles & garments

Electronics - TV manufacturing

Electronics - TV hardware

Electronics - Computer hardware

Electronics - Gaming consoles

Electronics - Camera modules

Electronics - Printers, copiers

Footwear production

AirPods manufacturingEVFTAEFTA

RCEP

Vie

tnam

- E

FTA

EU

Switzeland

Iceland

Liechtenstein

NorwayTaiwan papua new guinea USA Indonesia Thailand Philipines Laos

Cambodia

Myanmar

IndiaNew ZealandJapanAustralia

China KoreaRussiaHong Kong

Peru Mexico

Canada Chile

Vietnam

Brunei

CPTPP

Singapore

Malaysia

APEC

ASE

AN

Page 4: September 2019 Vietnam Industrial - pdf.savills.asia · 3 Vietnam Industrial H1/2019 Source: VinaCapital, “Is Vietnam “Too Full” For More FDI?”, 2019 2 Vietnam Industrial

Vietnam Industrial H1/2019

5

Vietnam Industrial H1/2019

4

Regional

Source: CIA World Factbook

Source: FocusEconomics

Population, 2018

Age structure, 2018

GDP growth, 2019

1. 6.8%Vietnam

2. 6.2%Philippines

3. 5.8%Indonesia

4. 4.5%Malaysia

5. 3.5%Thailand

6. 2.4%Singapore

Source: ADB, 2019

Vietnam remains the fastest growing economy in Southeast Asia in 2019

Source: World Bank, 2018

Ease of Doing Business, World Bank 2018

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Vietnam is ranked 69th among 190 economies for ease of doing business

Sing

apor

e

Mal

aysi

a

Thai

land

Viet

nam

Indo

nesi

a

Chin

a

Philli

ppin

es

Cam

bodi

a

Laos

Mya

nmar

265.3

94.6

69.2

32.4

1,396 China

Vietnam

Thailand

Malaysia

Indonesia

17%

12%

48%

11%

11%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

China Thailand Vietnam Indonesia Malaysia

27%

16%

41%

8%6%

25%

17%

42%

9%7%

23%

16%

46%

9%6%

17%

14%

46%

12%

11%

0-14 years 15-24 years 25-54 years 55-64 years > 65 years

(million people)

Manufacturing workers’ salary, 2018

Source: Trading Economics

Malaysia

924

China

866

Thailand

412

Vietnam

237

Indonesia

190

(US$/mth)

Page 5: September 2019 Vietnam Industrial - pdf.savills.asia · 3 Vietnam Industrial H1/2019 Source: VinaCapital, “Is Vietnam “Too Full” For More FDI?”, 2019 2 Vietnam Industrial

Vietnam Industrial H1/2019

5

Vietnam Industrial H1/2019

4

Regional

Source: CIA World Factbook

Source: FocusEconomics

Population, 2018

Age structure, 2018

GDP growth, 2019

1. 6.8%Vietnam

2. 6.2%Philippines

3. 5.8%Indonesia

4. 4.5%Malaysia

5. 3.5%Thailand

6. 2.4%Singapore

Source: ADB, 2019

Vietnam remains the fastest growing economy in Southeast Asia in 2019

Source: World Bank, 2018

Ease of Doing Business, World Bank 2018

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Vietnam is ranked 69th among 190 economies for ease of doing business

Sing

apor

e

Mal

aysi

a

Thai

land

Viet

nam

Indo

nesi

a

Chin

a

Philli

ppin

es

Cam

bodi

a

Laos

Mya

nmar

265.3

94.6

69.2

32.4

1,396 China

Vietnam

Thailand

Malaysia

Indonesia

17%

12%

48%

11%

11%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

China Thailand Vietnam Indonesia Malaysia

27%

16%

41%

8%6%

25%

17%

42%

9%7%

23%

16%

46%

9%6%

17%

14%

46%

12%

11%

0-14 years 15-24 years 25-54 years 55-64 years > 65 years

(million people)

Manufacturing workers’ salary, 2018

Source: Trading Economics

Malaysia

924

China

866

Thailand

412

Vietnam

237

Indonesia

190

(US$/mth)

Page 6: September 2019 Vietnam Industrial - pdf.savills.asia · 3 Vietnam Industrial H1/2019 Source: VinaCapital, “Is Vietnam “Too Full” For More FDI?”, 2019 2 Vietnam Industrial

Vietnam Industrial H1/2019

10

Vietnam Industrial H1/2019

6

Northern Vietnam, H1/2019

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

Bac Ninh Hai Phong Ha Noi Hung Yen Vinh Phuc Hai Duong

ha

US$/m

2/term

Occupied (ha) Vacant area (ha) Rent

-

50

100

150

200

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Dong Nai Binh Duong BRVT Long An HCMC Tay Ninh

ha

Occupied (ha) Vacant area (ha) Rent

US$/m

2/term

Source: Savills Industrial Services

Source: Savills Industrial Services

Southern Vietnam, H1/2019

Source: Trading Economics Source: Trading Economics

47.6

49.6

49.9

50.3

52.6

40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54

Malaysia

Indonesia

China

Thailand

Vietnam

PMI, Jul 2019 Industrial Production, Jul 2019

- 5.5%

6.3%

3.9%

2.6%

9.6%

-6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

Thailand

China

Malaysia

Indonesia

Vietnam

In the first three months of 2019, imports to the US from Vietnam rose 40.2% year-on-year (YoY). The U.S. continued to be the biggest importer of Vietnamese goods, purchasing:

• US$4.42 billion worth of garments-textiles, up 9.1% YoY;• US$2 billion in footwear (13.5%);• US$1.3 billion of machinery, equipment, and spare parts (54%);• US$1.42 billion of wood and timber products, increasing 34.7 percent.

US imports, Q1/2019

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50

China

Canada

Ireland

Germany

UK

Japan

Mexico

Italy

India

France

South Korea

Vietnam

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019

Construction costs, 2018

$-

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

Basic Warehouse & Factory ($/m2) Large WH/Distribution Center ($/m2) Hi-Tech Factory ($/m2)

Source: Turner & Townsend, International Construction Market Survey, 2018

Vietnam(HCMC)

China(Beijing & Shanghai)

India(Bangalore)

Indonesia(Jakarta)

Malaysia(Kuala Lumpur)

Performance

Page 7: September 2019 Vietnam Industrial - pdf.savills.asia · 3 Vietnam Industrial H1/2019 Source: VinaCapital, “Is Vietnam “Too Full” For More FDI?”, 2019 2 Vietnam Industrial

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Vietnam Industrial H1/2019

7

Vietnam Industrial H1/2019

Viet Nam’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 52.5 in June, the highest for H1/2019 and reached the critical 50-point expansion threshold. According to Focus-Economics, Q2/2019 was higher than Q1/2019, showing the strength of the manufacturing sector despite ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions. The increase was due to new orders, recovery in employment rates, the launch of new products and increased customers.

In H1/2019, 1,723 new projects registered capital investment of US$7.41 billion. The manufacturing and processing sector attracted 605 new projects, accounting for 71.2% of FDI at US$13.15 billion, up 39.8% YoY.

Hanoi and HCMC were the best performers, obtaining 26.3% and 16.7% of FDI respectively, with Binh Duong receiving 7.4% and Dong Nai with 6.7 percent. Investments from Hong Kong accounted for 28.7% of registered FDI with US$5.3 billion, followed by Korea with US$2.73 billion and China with US$2.28 billion.

Industrial parks (IPs) and economic zones (EZs) attracted approximately 340 FDI projects with newly registered capital of US$8.7 billion. (Minister of Planning and Investment, 2019)

IIP rose 9.1% YoY in H1/2019; manufacturing and processing increased 11.2%, leading economic growth. According to the GSO, essential industrial products with IIP growth were crude iron and steel (60%); petroleum (58%); paint (15%); aquaculture feed (14%) and handsets (14%).

Source: Asia Business Consulting

Manufacturing PMI Industrial FDI

Index of Industrial Production (IIP)

Source: Focus-Economics

Source: Ministry of Planning and Investment, 2019

PMI, June 2018 – June 2019

IIP, June 2018 – June 2019

FDI H1/2019

48

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

June

-18

Jul-1

8

Aug-18

Sep-18

Oct-18

Nov-18

Dec-18

Jan-

19

Feb-19

Mar-19

Apr-19

May-19

Jun-

19

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

June

-18

Jul-1

8

Aug-18

Sep-

18

Oct-18

Nov-18

Dec-18

Jan-

19

Feb-

19

Mar

-19

Apr-19

May

-19

Jun-

19

High production growth H1/2019

70%

40%

18%

12%

11%

Coal and refinedmining products

Metal

Oreexploitation

Motorvehicles

Textile andgarment

16%

7.1%

5.7%

71.2%

Manufacturing & Processing

Real Estate

Retail, Wholesale & Repair

Other

Transactions, H1/2019

Project Nationality Industrial Park ProvinceInvestment

(US$)

Beerco Limited Tu Liem Industrial Cluster Hanoi 4 bil

Goertek Co., Ltd. Que Vo Industrial Park Bac Ninh 260 mil

ACTR Company Limited Phuoc Dong Industrial Park Tay Ninh 280 mil

Advance Vietnam Tire Co., Ltd Long Giang Industrial Park Tien Giang 214 mil

Royal Pagoda Private Limited VSIP Nghe An Nghe An 200 mil

Meiko Electronics Vietnam Co., Ltd Hanoi 200 mil

Universal Alloy Corporation(UAC)

Da Nang Hi-Tech Park Danang 170 mil

TTI, Inc. Saigon Hi-Tech Park (SHTP) HCMC 150 mil

Changshin Vietnam Co. Ltd Tan Phu Industrial Park Dong Nai 100 mil

Thach That -Quoc Oai Industrial Zone

H1/2019 Supply326 Established IPS

95,500 ha total area65,600 ha industrial land (68.7%)

251 Operational 60,900ha(74% Occupancy)75 under construction, site clearance or compensation

17 Coastal Economic Zones845,000 ha

3.6 million workers in IPs and EZs in 1H/2019

Although occupancy in key provinces grew YoY, available land coupled with an array of upcoming projects has seen foreign companies significantly increasing investment in Vietnam. Manufacturers are showing interest in the Central Regions while developers are actively converting agricultural land to industrial usage, guaranteeing additional supply.

John Campbell,Senior Consultant,Industrial Services

Page 8: September 2019 Vietnam Industrial - pdf.savills.asia · 3 Vietnam Industrial H1/2019 Source: VinaCapital, “Is Vietnam “Too Full” For More FDI?”, 2019 2 Vietnam Industrial

8

Vietnam Industrial H1/2019

7

Vietnam Industrial H1/2019

Viet Nam’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 52.5 in June, the highest for H1/2019 and reached the critical 50-point expansion threshold. According to Focus-Economics, Q2/2019 was higher than Q1/2019, showing the strength of the manufacturing sector despite ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions. The increase was due to new orders, recovery in employment rates, the launch of new products and increased customers.

In H1/2019, 1,723 new projects registered capital investment of US$7.41 billion. The manufacturing and processing sector attracted 605 new projects, accounting for 71.2% of FDI at US$13.15 billion, up 39.8% YoY.

Hanoi and HCMC were the best performers, obtaining 26.3% and 16.7% of FDI respectively, with Binh Duong receiving 7.4% and Dong Nai with 6.7 percent. Investments from Hong Kong accounted for 28.7% of registered FDI with US$5.3 billion, followed by Korea with US$2.73 billion and China with US$2.28 billion.

Industrial parks (IPs) and economic zones (EZs) attracted approximately 340 FDI projects with newly registered capital of US$8.7 billion. (Minister of Planning and Investment, 2019)

IIP rose 9.1% YoY in H1/2019; manufacturing and processing increased 11.2%, leading economic growth. According to the GSO, essential industrial products with IIP growth were crude iron and steel (60%); petroleum (58%); paint (15%); aquaculture feed (14%) and handsets (14%).

Source: Asia Business Consulting

Manufacturing PMI Industrial FDI

Index of Industrial Production (IIP)

Source: Focus-Economics

Source: Ministry of Planning and Investment, 2019

PMI, June 2018 – June 2019

IIP, June 2018 – June 2019

FDI H1/2019

48

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

June

-18

Jul-1

8

Aug-18

Sep-18

Oct-18

Nov-18

Dec-18

Jan-

19

Feb-19

Mar-19

Apr-19

May-19

Jun-

19

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

June

-18

Jul-1

8

Aug-18

Sep-

18

Oct-18

Nov-18

Dec-18

Jan-

19

Feb-

19

Mar

-19

Apr-19

May

-19

Jun-

19

High production growth H1/2019

70%

40%

18%

12%

11%

Coal and refinedmining products

Metal

Oreexploitation

Motorvehicles

Textile andgarment

16%

7.1%

5.7%

71.2%

Manufacturing & Processing

Real Estate

Retail, Wholesale & Repair

Other

Transactions, H1/2019

Project Nationality Industrial Park ProvinceInvestment

(US$)

Beerco Limited Tu Liem Industrial Cluster Hanoi 4 bil

Goertek Co., Ltd. Que Vo Industrial Park Bac Ninh 260 mil

ACTR Company Limited Phuoc Dong Industrial Park Tay Ninh 280 mil

Advance Vietnam Tire Co., Ltd Long Giang Industrial Park Tien Giang 214 mil

Royal Pagoda Private Limited VSIP Nghe An Nghe An 200 mil

Meiko Electronics Vietnam Co., Ltd Hanoi 200 mil

Universal Alloy Corporation(UAC)

Da Nang Hi-Tech Park Danang 170 mil

TTI, Inc. Saigon Hi-Tech Park (SHTP) HCMC 150 mil

Changshin Vietnam Co. Ltd Tan Phu Industrial Park Dong Nai 100 mil

Thach That -Quoc Oai Industrial Zone

H1/2019 Supply326 Established IPS

95,500 ha total area65,600 ha industrial land (68.7%)

251 Operational 60,900ha(74% Occupancy)75 under construction, site clearance or compensation

17 Coastal Economic Zones845,000 ha

3.6 million workers in IPs and EZs in 1H/2019

Although occupancy in key provinces grew YoY, available land coupled with an array of upcoming projects has seen foreign companies significantly increasing investment in Vietnam. Manufacturers are showing interest in the Central Regions while developers are actively converting agricultural land to industrial usage, guaranteeing additional supply.

John Campbell,Senior Consultant,Industrial Services

9

Vietnam Industrial H1/2019 Vietnam Industrial H1/2019

15

Rise of rental options

Despite occupancy in key provinces increasing YoY, numerous future projects allow foreign companies to increase investment. With interest in the industrial market at an all-time high, developers are actively converting agricultural land to industrial, ensuring additional supply. The central economic zone has captured the attention of foreign manufacturers; Nghe An, Hue, Quang Nam and Quang Ngai all o�er new projects with competitive pricing.

Michael Kokalari, Chief Economist at VinaCapital, believes that concerns around labor supply mainly stem from manufacturers with tight margins in “low-value-added” industries such as garment and furniture. Kokalari stated that Viet Nam has yet to reach its full potential, adding that:

• With 10% of the workforce in the FDI sector and 40% in the agricultural industry, there is excellent potential for labor to shift “from the farm to the factory”, fueling industrialisation.

• The manufacturing sector only contributes approximately 20% of Viet Nam’s GDP, falling short of other ‘Asian Tiger’ economies, which peaked at 30% GDP.

Su�cient capacity

The industrial sector is growing strongly with a tenfold increase in FDI over the last decade. Good land supply is facilitating incoming manufacturing projects and the rise of rental options with RBF and BTS solutions. Viet Nam must be more selective with projects to move up the value chain, improve competitiveness and ensure sustainable growth.

Low labor costs and government incentives, particularly preferential tax rates, will continue to be critical drivers of FDI. However, to maintain the transition to higher-value industries, Viet Nam must focus on the quality rather than the number of investments. Recommendations for FDI Strategy for 2020-2030 by the Ministry of Planning and Investment and International Finance Corporation (IFC) outlined the steps required to increase the quality of foreign investment:

• Creating a national skills development plan to increase the share of skilled labor; • Modernizing investment promotion activities and focus of priority sectors; • Implement supporting policies to support local firms; • Open service sectors such as education, logistics and financial services;• Set up a new FDI management agency with higher budget, capacity and authority;• Review and adjust current investment incentives and policies to ensure FDI quality, and; • Reduce the negative impact of Industry 4.0.

Outlook

H1/2019 FDI(US$)

TotalArea

(ha)

TotalLeasableArea (ha)

Projects Occupancy Rent

Sout

hern

- P

rovi

ncia

l Ind

exN

ort

hern

- P

rovi

ncia

l Ind

ex

Ho Chi Minh City

Binh Duong

Dong Nai

Long An

Ba Ria-Vung Tau

Tay Ninh

Bac Ninh

Hung Yen

Hai Phong

Hai Duong

Vinh Phuc

Hanoi

2019 PCI(Rank/province)

2nd highest 10th/634,703 2,620 22 24.3%

YoYstable3.08B 65.34

3rd highest 6th/6310,040 6,296 30 27.6%

YoY1.37B 66.09 54.6%

YoY

4th highest 26th/639,216 6,317 31 20.8%

YoY1.23B 63.84 21.1%

YoY

15th highest 3rd/635,827 3,523 21 3.8%

YoY268M 68.09 26.7%

YoY

7th highest 21st/638,924 5,168 11 1.4%

YoY680M 64.02 7.8%

YoY

26th highest 14th/633,390 2,619 6 63.6%

YoY714M 64.54 31.1%

YoY

1st highest 9th/633,432 1,624 10 8.5%

YoY4.87B 65.40 8.6%

YoY

5th highest 15th/635,107 3,651 13 6.3%

YoY1.01B 64.50 13%

YoY

13th highest 58th/631,704 1,226 8 6.2%

YoY299M 60.66 6.7%

YoY

9th highest 16th/63 4,658 2,656 11 10%

YoY536M 64.48 4.5%

YoY

10th highest 55th/631,449 980 8 18.8%

YoY444M 60.98 29.4%

YoY

16th highest 13th/631,391 997 6 11.1%

YoY227M 64.55 8.8%

YoY

Developer Nationality Total Area (ha) RBF Sites Provinces

247 10HCMC, Binh Duong, Dong Nai,

Bac Ninh, Hai Duong, Hai Phong

120 8 Dong Nai, Hanoi, Bac Ninh

12.6 2 Dong Nai

6 1 Dong Nai

Source: VinaCapital, “Is Vietnam “Too Full” For More FDI?” 2019

Page 9: September 2019 Vietnam Industrial - pdf.savills.asia · 3 Vietnam Industrial H1/2019 Source: VinaCapital, “Is Vietnam “Too Full” For More FDI?”, 2019 2 Vietnam Industrial

9

Vietnam Industrial H1/2019 Vietnam Industrial H1/2019

15

Rise of rental options

Despite occupancy in key provinces increasing YoY, numerous future projects allow foreign companies to increase investment. With interest in the industrial market at an all-time high, developers are actively converting agricultural land to industrial, ensuring additional supply. The central economic zone has captured the attention of foreign manufacturers; Nghe An, Hue, Quang Nam and Quang Ngai all o�er new projects with competitive pricing.

Michael Kokalari, Chief Economist at VinaCapital, believes that concerns around labor supply mainly stem from manufacturers with tight margins in “low-value-added” industries such as garment and furniture. Kokalari stated that Viet Nam has yet to reach its full potential, adding that:

• With 10% of the workforce in the FDI sector and 40% in the agricultural industry, there is excellent potential for labor to shift “from the farm to the factory”, fueling industrialisation.

• The manufacturing sector only contributes approximately 20% of Viet Nam’s GDP, falling short of other ‘Asian Tiger’ economies, which peaked at 30% GDP.

Su�cient capacity

The industrial sector is growing strongly with a tenfold increase in FDI over the last decade. Good land supply is facilitating incoming manufacturing projects and the rise of rental options with RBF and BTS solutions. Viet Nam must be more selective with projects to move up the value chain, improve competitiveness and ensure sustainable growth.

Low labor costs and government incentives, particularly preferential tax rates, will continue to be critical drivers of FDI. However, to maintain the transition to higher-value industries, Viet Nam must focus on the quality rather than the number of investments. Recommendations for FDI Strategy for 2020-2030 by the Ministry of Planning and Investment and International Finance Corporation (IFC) outlined the steps required to increase the quality of foreign investment:

• Creating a national skills development plan to increase the share of skilled labor; • Modernizing investment promotion activities and focus of priority sectors; • Implement supporting policies to support local firms; • Open service sectors such as education, logistics and financial services;• Set up a new FDI management agency with higher budget, capacity and authority;• Review and adjust current investment incentives and policies to ensure FDI quality, and; • Reduce the negative impact of Industry 4.0.

Outlook

H1/2019 FDI(US$)

TotalArea

(ha)

TotalLeasableArea (ha)

Projects Occupancy Rent

Sout

hern

- P

rovi

ncia

l Ind

exN

ort

hern

- P

rovi

ncia

l Ind

ex

Ho Chi Minh City

Binh Duong

Dong Nai

Long An

Ba Ria-Vung Tau

Tay Ninh

Bac Ninh

Hung Yen

Hai Phong

Hai Duong

Vinh Phuc

Hanoi

2019 PCI(Rank/province)

2nd highest 10th/634,703 2,620 22 24.3%

YoYstable3.08B 65.34

3rd highest 6th/6310,040 6,296 30 27.6%

YoY1.37B 66.09 54.6%

YoY

4th highest 26th/639,216 6,317 31 20.8%

YoY1.23B 63.84 21.1%

YoY

15th highest 3rd/635,827 3,523 21 3.8%

YoY268M 68.09 26.7%

YoY

7th highest 21st/638,924 5,168 11 1.4%

YoY680M 64.02 7.8%

YoY

26th highest 14th/633,390 2,619 6 63.6%

YoY714M 64.54 31.1%

YoY

1st highest 9th/633,432 1,624 10 8.5%

YoY4.87B 65.40 8.6%

YoY

5th highest 15th/635,107 3,651 13 6.3%

YoY1.01B 64.50 13%

YoY

13th highest 58th/631,704 1,226 8 6.2%

YoY299M 60.66 6.7%

YoY

9th highest 16th/63 4,658 2,656 11 10%

YoY536M 64.48 4.5%

YoY

10th highest 55th/631,449 980 8 18.8%

YoY444M 60.98 29.4%

YoY

16th highest 13th/631,391 997 6 11.1%

YoY227M 64.55 8.8%

YoY

Developer Nationality Total Area (ha) RBF Sites Provinces

247 10HCMC, Binh Duong, Dong Nai,

Bac Ninh, Hai Duong, Hai Phong

120 8 Dong Nai, Hanoi, Bac Ninh

12.6 2 Dong Nai

6 1 Dong Nai

Source: VinaCapital, “Is Vietnam “Too Full” For More FDI?” 2019

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Vietnam Industrial H1/2019

10

Vietnam Industrial H1/2019

6

Northern Vietnam, H1/2019

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

Bac Ninh Hai Phong Ha Noi Hung Yen Vinh Phuc Hai Duong

haU

S$/m2/term

Occupied (ha) Vacant area (ha) Rent

-

50

100

150

200

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Dong Nai Binh Duong BRVT Long An HCMC Tay Ninh

ha

Occupied (ha) Vacant area (ha) Rent

US$/m

2/term

Source: Savills Industrial Services

Source: Savills Industrial Services

Southern Vietnam, H1/2019

Source: Trading Economics Source: Trading Economics

47.6

49.6

49.9

50.3

52.6

40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54

Malaysia

Indonesia

China

Thailand

Vietnam

PMI, Jul 2019 Industrial Production, Jul 2019

- 5.5%

6.3%

3.9%

2.6%

9.6%

-6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

Thailand

China

Malaysia

Indonesia

Vietnam

In the first three months of 2019, imports to the US from Vietnam rose 40.2% year-on-year (YoY). The U.S. continued to be the biggest importer of Vietnamese goods, purchasing:

• US$4.42 billion worth of garments-textiles, up 9.1% YoY;• US$2 billion in footwear (13.5%);• US$1.3 billion of machinery, equipment, and spare parts (54%);• US$1.42 billion of wood and timber products, increasing 34.7 percent.

US imports, Q1/2019

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50

China

Canada

Ireland

Germany

UK

Japan

Mexico

Italy

India

France

South Korea

Vietnam

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019

Construction costs, 2018

$-

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

Basic Warehouse & Factory ($/m2) Large WH/Distribution Center ($/m2) Hi-Tech Factory ($/m2)

Source: Turner & Townsend, International Construction Market Survey, 2018

Vietnam(HCMC)

China(Beijing & Shanghai)

India(Bangalore)

Indonesia(Jakarta)

Malaysia(Kuala Lumpur)

Performance

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12

Vietnam Industrial H1/2019

11

Vietnam Industrial H1/2019

H1/2019 FDI

HO CHI MINH CITY

US$3.08 billion2nd highest

2019 ProvincialCompetitivenessIndex (PCI)

65.34 pointsRank: 10th

Total Area(ha) 4,703

TotalLeasable Area(ha) 2,620

Number of Projects 22

24.3% YoY

Stable0 50 100 150 200

Rent(US$/m2)

Occupancy(%)

Occupancy

Rent

H1/2019 FDI

BINH DUONG PROVINCE

US$1.37 billion3rd highest

2019 ProvincialCompetitivenessIndex (PCI)

66.09 pointsRank: 6th

Total Area (ha) 10,040

Total Leasable Area(ha) 6,296

Number of Projects 30Rent(US$/m2)

Occupancy(%)

94 96 98 100 102 104

DONG NAI PROVINCE

2019 Rent(US$/m2)

2019Occupancy(%)

91.5 92 92.5 93 93.5

LONG AN PROVINCE

2019 Rent(US$/m2)

2019Occupancy(%)

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Southern Vietnam Overview Southern Vietnam Overview

27.6% YoYOccupancy

54.6% YoYRent

H1/2019 FDI US$1.23 billion4th highest

2019 ProvincialCompetitivenessIndex (PCI)

63.84 pointsRank: 26th

Total Area (ha) 9,216

Total Leasable Area(ha) 6,317

Number of Projects 31

20.8% YoYOccupancy

21.1% YoYRent

H1/2019 FDI US$268 million15th highest

2019 ProvincialCompetitivenessIndex (PCI)

68.09 pointsRank: 3rd

Total Area (ha) 5,827

Total Leasable Area(ha) 3,523

Number of Projects 21

3.7% YoYOccupancy

26.7% YoYRent

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12

Vietnam Industrial H1/2019

11

Vietnam Industrial H1/2019

H1/2019 FDI

HO CHI MINH CITY

US$3.08 billion2nd highest

2019 ProvincialCompetitivenessIndex (PCI)

65.34 pointsRank: 10th

Total Area(ha) 4,703

TotalLeasable Area(ha) 2,620

Number of Projects 22

24.3% YoY

Stable0 50 100 150 200

Rent(US$/m2)

Occupancy(%)

Occupancy

Rent

H1/2019 FDI

BINH DUONG PROVINCE

US$1.37 billion3rd highest

2019 ProvincialCompetitivenessIndex (PCI)

66.09 pointsRank: 6th

Total Area (ha) 10,040

Total Leasable Area(ha) 6,296

Number of Projects 30Rent(US$/m2)

Occupancy(%)

94 96 98 100 102 104

DONG NAI PROVINCE

2019 Rent(US$/m2)

2019Occupancy(%)

91.5 92 92.5 93 93.5

LONG AN PROVINCE

2019 Rent(US$/m2)

2019Occupancy(%)

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Southern Vietnam Overview Southern Vietnam Overview

27.6% YoYOccupancy

54.6% YoYRent

H1/2019 FDI US$1.23 billion4th highest

2019 ProvincialCompetitivenessIndex (PCI)

63.84 pointsRank: 26th

Total Area (ha) 9,216

Total Leasable Area(ha) 6,317

Number of Projects 31

20.8% YoYOccupancy

21.1% YoYRent

H1/2019 FDI US$268 million15th highest

2019 ProvincialCompetitivenessIndex (PCI)

68.09 pointsRank: 3rd

Total Area (ha) 5,827

Total Leasable Area(ha) 3,523

Number of Projects 21

3.7% YoYOccupancy

26.7% YoYRent

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13

Vietnam Industrial H1/2019

13

Vietnam Industrial H1/2019

HANOI

Rent(US$/m2)

Occupancy(%)

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

BA RIA-VUNG TAU PROVINCE

Rent(US$/m2)

Occupancy(%)

0 20 40 60 80

BAC NINH PROVINCE

Rent(US$/m2)

Occupancy(%)

84 85 86 87 88

Northern Vietnam OverviewSouthern Vietnam Overview

H1/2019 FDI US$4.87 billion1st highest

2019 ProvincialCompetitivenessIndex (PCI)

65.40 pointsRank: 9th

Total Area (ha) 3,432

Total Leasable Area(ha) 1,624

Number of Projects 10

8.5% YoYOccupancy

8.6% YoYRent

H1/2019 FDI US$680 million7th highest

2019 ProvincialCompetitivenessIndex (PCI)

64.02 pointsRank: 21th

Total Area (ha) 8,924

Total Leasable Area(ha) 5,168

Number of Projects 11

1.4% YoYOccupancy

7.8% YoYRent

H1/2019 FDI US$1.01 billion5th highest

2019 ProvincialCompetitivenessIndex (PCI)

64.50 pointsRank: 15th

Total Area (ha) 5,107

Total Leasable Area(ha) 3,651

Number of Projects 13

6.3% YoYOccupancy

13% YoYRent

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16

Vietnam Industrial H1/2019

14

Vietnam Industrial H1/2019

HUNG YEN PROVINCE

Rent(US$/m2)

Occupancy(%)

74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88

HAI PHONG PROVINCE

Rent(US$/m2)

Occupancy(%)

0 20 40 60 80 100

HAI DUONG PROVINCE

Rent(US$/m2)

Occupancy(%)

60 65 70 75 80

Northern Vietnam OverviewNorthern Vietnam Overview

H1/2019 FDI US$536 million9th highest

2019 ProvincialCompetitivenessIndex (PCI)

64.48 pointsRank: 16th

Total Area (ha) 4,658

Total Leasable Area(ha) 2,656

Number of Projects 11

10% YoYOccupancy

4.5% YoYRent

H1/2019 FDI US$444 million10th highest

2019 ProvincialCompetitivenessIndex (PCI)

60.98 pointsRank: 55th

Total Area (ha) 1,449

Total Leasable Area(ha) 980

Number of Projects 8

18.6% YoYOccupancy

29.4% YoYRent

H1/2019 FDI US$299 million13th highest

2019 ProvincialCompetitivenessIndex (PCI)

60.66 pointsRank: 58th

Total Area (ha) 1,704

Total Leasable Area(ha) 1,226

Number of Projects 8

6.2% YoYOccupancy

6.7% YoYRent

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9

Vietnam Industrial H1/2019 Vietnam Industrial H1/2019

15

Rise of rental options

Despite occupancy in key provinces increasing YoY, numerous future projects allow foreign companies to increase investment. With interest in the industrial market at an all-time high, developers are actively converting agricultural land to industrial, ensuring additional supply. The central economic zone has captured the attention of foreign manufacturers; Nghe An, Hue, Quang Nam and Quang Ngai all o�er new projects with competitive pricing.

Michael Kokalari, Chief Economist at VinaCapital, believes that concerns around labor supply mainly stem from manufacturers with tight margins in “low-value-added” industries such as garment and furniture. Kokalari stated that Viet Nam has yet to reach its full potential, adding that:

• With 10% of the workforce in the FDI sector and 40% in the agricultural industry, there is excellent potential for labor to shift “from the farm to the factory”, fueling industrialisation.

• The manufacturing sector only contributes approximately 20% of Viet Nam’s GDP, falling short of other ‘Asian Tiger’ economies, which peaked at 30% GDP.

Su�cient capacity

The industrial sector is growing strongly with a tenfold increase in FDI over the last decade. Good land supply is facilitating incoming manufacturing projects and the rise of rental options with RBF and BTS solutions. Viet Nam must be more selective with projects to move up the value chain, improve competitiveness and ensure sustainable growth.

Low labor costs and government incentives, particularly preferential tax rates, will continue to be critical drivers of FDI. However, to maintain the transition to higher-value industries, Viet Nam must focus on the quality rather than the number of investments. Recommendations for FDI Strategy for 2020-2030 by the Ministry of Planning and Investment and International Finance Corporation (IFC) outlined the steps required to increase the quality of foreign investment:

• Creating a national skills development plan to increase the share of skilled labor; • Modernizing investment promotion activities and focus of priority sectors; • Implement supporting policies to support local firms; • Open service sectors such as education, logistics and financial services;• Set up a new FDI management agency with higher budget, capacity and authority;• Review and adjust current investment incentives and policies to ensure FDI quality, and; • Reduce the negative impact of Industry 4.0.

Outlook

H1/2019 FDI(US$)

TotalArea

(ha)

TotalLeasableArea (ha)

Projects Occupancy Rent

Sout

hern

- P

rovi

ncia

l Ind

exN

ort

hern

- P

rovi

ncia

l Ind

ex

Ho Chi Minh City

Binh Duong

Dong Nai

Long An

Ba Ria-Vung Tau

Tay Ninh

Bac Ninh

Hung Yen

Hai Phong

Hai Duong

Vinh Phuc

Hanoi

2019 PCI(Rank/province)

2nd highest 10th/634,703 2,620 22 24.3%

YoYstable3.08B 65.34

3rd highest 6th/6310,040 6,296 30 27.6%

YoY1.37B 66.09 54.6%

YoY

4th highest 26th/639,216 6,317 31 20.8%

YoY1.23B 63.84 21.1%

YoY

15th highest 3rd/635,827 3,523 21 3.8%

YoY268M 68.09 26.7%

YoY

7th highest 21st/638,924 5,168 11 1.4%

YoY680M 64.02 7.8%

YoY

26th highest 14th/633,390 2,619 6 63.6%

YoY714M 64.54 31.1%

YoY

1st highest 9th/633,432 1,624 10 8.5%

YoY4.87B 65.40 8.6%

YoY

5th highest 15th/635,107 3,651 13 6.3%

YoY1.01B 64.50 13%

YoY

13th highest 58th/631,704 1,226 8 6.2%

YoY299M 60.66 6.7%

YoY

9th highest 16th/63 4,658 2,656 11 10%

YoY536M 64.48 4.5%

YoY

10th highest 55th/631,449 980 8 18.8%

YoY444M 60.98 29.4%

YoY

16th highest 13th/631,391 997 6 11.1%

YoY227M 64.55 8.8%

YoY

Developer Nationality Total Area (ha) RBF Sites Provinces

247 10HCMC, Binh Duong, Dong Nai,

Bac Ninh, Hai Duong, Hai Phong

120 8 Dong Nai, Hanoi, Bac Ninh

12.6 2 Dong Nai

6 1 Dong Nai

Source: VinaCapital, “Is Vietnam “Too Full” For More FDI?” 2019

Page 16: September 2019 Vietnam Industrial - pdf.savills.asia · 3 Vietnam Industrial H1/2019 Source: VinaCapital, “Is Vietnam “Too Full” For More FDI?”, 2019 2 Vietnam Industrial

Savills ResearchWe’re a dedicated team with an unrivalled reputation for producing well-informed and accurate analysis, research and commentary across all sectors of the Vietnam property market.

Troy Gri�thsDeputy Managing Director +84 (0) 933 276 663

tgri�[email protected]

John CampbellSenior Consultant, Industrial ServiceHo Chi Minh City+84 (0) 986 718 [email protected]

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