September, 2019 Edition - Peerless Sec

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September 5, 2019

Peerless Master Picks- September, 2019 Edition

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Stock Picks in September, 2019

September 5, 2019

Apollo Hospitals Enterprises Ltd.

Rating – Accumulate | Potential Target-Rs 1600 | Period- 12 months

We like Apollo Hospital’s performance as they set to ramp up new hospitals, having completed its capex

cycle. It is set to double EBITDA and reduce capex to one-third over the next three years. It owns one of the

best integrated business models in the healthcare space with strong management pedigree.

Biocon Ltd.

Rating – Buy | Potential Target-Rs 280 | Period- 12 months

Biocon over the years have built global scale and cost competitive, complex manufacturing capabilities to

address global market opportunities. Biocon is well placed to play the first mover advantage in evolving

biosimilar market with strong traction in biologics segment coupled with increasing market penetration.

Larsen & Toubro Ltd.

Rating – Buy | Potential Target-Rs 1600 | Period- 12-18 months

L&T has consistently been delivering in terms of bagging orders, strong order execution, though with some

temporary concerns on working capital management owing to tight liquidity scenario. We believe L&T, being

a strong infrastructure play, is expected to benefit over the next few years, as the incumbent government

envisages Rs. 100 lakh crore investments in infrastructure till 2024

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List of Stock Picks in September, 2019

September 5, 2019

COMPANY SECTOR LTP (Rs) RATING

MARKET

CAP

(Rs in Bn)

POTENTIAL

TARGET

(Rs)

POTENTIAL

UPSIDE

Larsen & Toubro

Ltd. Infrastructure 1312 Buy 1863 1600 21%

Apollo Hospitals

Enterprises Ltd. Hospitals 1490 Accumulate 209 1600 7%

Biocon Ltd. Pharmaceuticals 229 Buy 282 280 22%

(Initiate price based on regular trading price as on 5 September, 2019 in NSE, 1400 hrs)

(Note: All price target for next 12 months except L&T )

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SECTOR: INFRASTRUCTURE

CMP: Rs.1312

Target Price: Rs.1600

Period: 12-18 months

Larsen & Tourbo Ltd. Buy Sector: Infrastructure |NSE Code: LT

Profitability intact with strong order book

L&T posted a robust 9.7% YoY revenue growth in 1QFY20 (at Rs 29635

crore), largely driven by Infra, Hydrocarbon and the Services business.

EBIDTA margin improved 99bps YoY to 9.74%, led by a favorable

segmental mix.

L&T registered strong order inflows of Rs 38700 crore, up 11% YoY at the

group level, predominantly led by domestic orders that grew 15.5% to Rs

29700 crore. Key drivers for order inflows were infrastructure Rs 17492

crore) and hydrocarbon segments Rs 3444 crore) and power Rs 6700

crore).

While orders from the central and state governments were impacted

during general elections, strong PSU and private sector orders enabled

growth for the quarter. The expected strong bid pipeline of Rs 8.5 lakh

crore is expected to ensure 10-12% order inflow growth in FY20E.

Reasonable performance across business verticals

The management has maintained its guidance of 12-15% revenue growth

in FY20E. During the quarter, net working capital as percentage of sales

deteriorated 200 bps to 23%, YoY, due to sluggishness of payments from

state, central governments and vendor support on account of liquidity

crunch in the system.

Ramp up in Heavy Engineering is on the back a robust opening order

backlog of Rs 47000 crore.

In Defence, 2 year old tracked artillery gun order continues to drive

revenue and margins. Large order allocation in this segment accrues to

public sector amidst slow policy changes

IT and TS segment continues to be plagued by increasing protectionist

policies and mandated localization (in the US) leading to higher staffing

costs

Infrastructure margins continued to be weak and Larsen attributed the

same to seasonal volatility and the stage of completion on individual

projects

Key Financials Indicators:

Indicator Jun '19 Jun '18 YoY(%)

Net Sales/Income from Operations 29,635.95 27,004.77 9.74%

Extra Ordinary Items 112.08 85.38 31.27%

Net Profit/(Loss) For the Period 1,878.97 1,213.07 54.89%

Equity Share Capital 280.62 280.35 0.10%

Diluted EPS 10.5 8.65 21.39%

(Rs Crore)

Key Stock Data

No of Shares (mn) 1403

Market Cap ( Rs bn) 1863

52 week high (Rs) 1607

52 week low (Rs) 1182.50

6m avg Volume (NSE &BSE) 2.77 mn

Beta 1.07

Face value ( RS ) 2

Shareholding Pattern

Holder's Name

% Share Holding as on

Jun2019


Mar2019

Change %

Promoter 0 0 0

FIIs 20.03 19 1.03

Mutual Funds 17.43 16.59 0.84

Insurance Companies 19.52 21.33 -1.81

Other DIIs 0.93 0.91 0.02

Non Institutional Investors 42.09 42.17 -0.08

Source: BSE

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Key Ratio: Indicators Mar-19 Mar-18 Mar-17

EPS(Consolidated) 63.4 52.49 43.05

Net Profit Margin 7.26 7.05 6.29

P/E 39 33.4 46.6

P/BV(X) 3.12 3.31 2.94

RoE% 14.31 13.27 12.06

ROA% 3.19 3.00 2.84

Segmental Quarterly Performance: Consolidated

Segment

Q1 FY20 Q1 FY19

Net

Revenue

EBITDA EBITDA

%

Net

Revenue

EBITDA EBITDA

%

Ex-Services business:

Infrastructure Segment 13,865 881 6.40% 12,135 830 6.80%

Power Segment 561 18 3.30% 1,080 44 4.10%

Hydrocarbon Segment 3,763 285 7.60% 3,511 247 7.00%

Heavy Engineering Segment 874 171 19.50% 333 120 36.10%

Defence & Aerospace 965 160 16.50% 727 81 11.10%

E&A Segment 1,359 230 16.90% 1,279 169 13.30%

Other Segment 1,148 277 24.10% 1,342 356 26.50%

Total (ex-services) 22,535 2,021 9.00% 20,407 1,848 9.10%

Services Business:

IT & TS Segment 3,819 888 23.20% 3,324 824 24.80%

Financial Services Segment 3,462 762 22.00% 3,058 740 24.20%

Developmental Projects Segment 1,178 118 10.00% 1,494 454 30.40%

Total (Services) 8,460 1,768 20.90% 7,876 2,019 25.60%

Total 30,994 3,788 12.20% 28,283 3,867 13.70%

Less: Segment Depreciation 492 456

Less: One-time Realty Provisions - -754

Segment PBIT 3,296 2,657

(Rs in crores)

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Strong order book continues to support growth going forward:

Order Inflow momentum sustained through PSU & Private Sector orders. Award delays slow down International Order

Inflow. Robust Order Book provides hedge against cyclicality

Broad breakup of prospect pipeline (Rs 8.4tn): Infra – Rs 5.4tn, Power T&D – Rs 1tn, Power Generation – Rs 0.5tn,

Hydrocarbon – Rs 1tn and Others – Rs 0.5tn

In 1QFY20, private orders (45% share) and PSUs (45% share) have contributed significantly to inflows while both State

and Central Govt. inflows were largely muted

Outlook:

The company continues to post strong growth on the back of its strong business model with robust order book, diverse

skill sets, strong execution capabilities and increased focus on improving return ratios by exiting non-core assets. L&T

continued its strong order inflow momentum with 11% YoY growth at Rs387700 crore in 1QFY20 (FY19 +16% YoY), led

by Infrastructure and Power sector. We estimate a robust 11% top line growth for FY20/21E which will be driven by

Infra, hydrocarbon and the services segments

We maintain our ‘Buy’ recommendation on L&T with current base business at 20.3X FY 20EPS with price target of Rs

1600.

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SECTOR: HOSPITALS

CMP: Rs.1490


Period: 12 months

Apollo Hospitals

Accumulate

Sector: Insurance-Hospitals |NSE Code: APOLLOHOSP

Company background & Investment theme

Established in 1983, the company is one of the few listed players in the

healthcare space. Apollo owns 70 hospitals with a total bed capacity of

10167 beds.

The company owns one of the best integrated business models in the

healthcare space with strong management pedigree FY19 has panned out

on expected line with sustained margin expansion and improvement in

RoCE

Reduction of Debt- Key positive Driver

The Reddy family that controls Apollo Hospitals Enterprise and owns

about 34% in the hospital chain, is looking to sell assets further or induct

an outside investor to reduce debt.

Management aims to reduce pledged shares by the family as collateral to

lenders, to 20% of their total holding in the company from about 78% at

end of march quarter. Pledged shares reduced from 78.1% to 71.3% in

quarter ended June 2019. In another fundraising tactic, the family also

plans to induct an investor directly into its holding company.

Reddy family sold 50.8% stake in Apollo Hospital Group's health insurance

venture with Munich Re Group, namely Apollo Munich Health Insurance Company to HDFC for Rs 1,336 crore.

Company is targeting to reduce its debt from over Rs 3,000 crore at end of

FY19 to Rs 2,500 crore by the end of this financial year. Lowering of debt

would drive equity valuation upward.

Lower capex ahead and focus on asset sweating –Key Positive

Rapid expansion and maturity of older hospitals has kept the overall growth tempo at 12-14% per annum. We expect

healthcare sales to grow at a CAGR of around 13% in FY19-21E mainly due to strong growth at new hospitals

Company Data

No of Shares (Mn) 1200

Market Cap (Rs Bn) 209.7


52 week low (Rs) 997

6m avg. volume (NSE&BSE) 0.86 mn

Beta 0.90

Face value ( RS ) 5


Holder's Name


Jun2019


Mar2019 Change

%

Promoter 34.4 34.4 0

FIIs 44.02 44.27 -0.25

Mutual Funds 7.3 7.1 0.20

Insurance Companies 5.7 5.7 0

Other DIIs 0.19 0.42 -0.23

Non Institutional Investors 8.3 8.11 0.19

Source: BSE

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RoCE to see sharp improvement

New hospitals, with around Rs12bn capital employed, are running at just about 40% occupancy; Apollo Hospitals(AHEL)

with about Rs 6bn capital employed, is running at around 30% utilisation.

Going forward: i) Navi Mumbai will record profits in FY19 and ii) AHEL is set to breakeven in FY20. With capex

moderating, we expect RoCE to rise from 8% to around 15% over FY18-21.

FY19 region wise YoY growth-

1) Tamil Nadu- 12% growth to Rs 2027 crore;

2) Andhra Pradesh, Telangana- 11% growth to Rs 1027 crore;

3) Karnataka- 13% growth to Rs 659 crore;

4) New hospitals- 24% growth to Rs 965 crore

Profitable growth to continue

FY19 has panned out on expected lines with sustained margin expansion and improvement in ROCE, as guided by the

management at the beginning of the fiscal.

The management has reiterated a similar strategy, going ahead, with more focus on consolidation of existing hospitals

and making new hospitals profitable.

We maintain our positive outlook on further de-leveraging of balance sheet and strong business momentum on low

capex.

Steady Revenue Growth Path

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Business Metrics: Standalone quarterly performance

Valuation Ratios

FY19 FY18 17-Mar

Enterprise Value (Cr.) 20,224.65 17,802.39 18,858.72

EV/Net Operating Revenue (X) 2.1 2.16 2.6

EV/EBITDA (X) 18.47 21.57 25.11

MarketCap/Net Operating Revenue

(X)

1.77 1.79 2.24

Price/BV (X) 5.1 4.55 4.9

Price/Net Operating Revenue 1.77 1.79 2.24

Earnings Yield 0.01 0.01 0.01

Key Risk: Government regulations key risk

The only risk is announcement of any government regulation - AHEL has almost offset impact from stent and knee cap

price controls. But, any drastic regulatory policies could render entire models unsustainable for players.

Outlook & Valuation:

We like the company as it owns one of the best integrated business models in the healthcare space with strong

management pedigree. The management has reiterated plans for phased promoters pledge reduction. With company

maintaining strong quarterly EBITDA growth of 43.7% YoY at Rs 325.8 crore and Net profit growth of 31.8% to Rs 79.3

crore, new hospital additions and pharmacy business is likely boost EPS growth from 17.7.

We rate Apollo Hospitals to ‘ACCUMULATE’ with target price of Rs 1600 in next 12 months.

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SECTOR : PHARMACEUTICALS

CMP: Rs.229


Period: 12 months

Biocon Ltd. Buy Sector: Pharmaceuticals |NSE Code: BIOCON

Biosimilars are opportunities forward

Indian pharmaceutical companies have been betting big on biosimilars for

quite a while as they hope to cash in on its potentially large market.

Biosimilars are replicas of biologic drugs that are used to treat different

types of cancers and autoimmune diseases. Unlike small molecule generic

drugs which can be chemically synthesized, biosimilars are large protein

molecules, which are harder and more expensive to develop as they are

made from living cells and have a far more complex chemical structure

that is difficult to replicate.

The estimated cost of developing biosimilars for the global markets is $75-

250 million, while developing traditional non-biologic generics costs about

$3-$5 million.

With many biologic drugs becoming off-patent in various countries, Indian

drug makers have been investing millions of dollars to get a piece of this ma-

rket. A recent study says that as many as nine biologic drugs have either

gone off patent or will do so by 2025, with combined revenues of $62

billion in 2018.

It was estimated that revenue from the sale of these biosimilars will grow

by 24 percent annually for seven years to $13.3 billion in 2025 in the US

and Europe alone.

That offers a big opportunity.

Biocon adopted Partnership model

Given the capital-intensive nature to develop biosimilars, long gestation

periods between initial investment and commercialization are common. To

counter this, some Indian companies like Biocon has adopted a partnership

model where they would develop and supply the drug, and its partner

companies will make the regulatory filings and commercialise it. It will get a

share in revenue or profits depending on the agreement entered. There will

be also milestone payments made by the partners based on the drugs having

crossed various stages of clinical development.

Biocon partnered with Mylan and Novartis.

Strong Performance

Biocon (BIOS) exhibited stellar performance with revenue growth of 30% YoY to Rs1,456Cr led by strong growth in

biologic segment (up 96% YoY) mainly due to 96.0% YoY growth in biologics to Rs 490 crore. EBITDA margins improved

868 bps YoY to 29.8% mainly due to strong gross margin performance

Key Stock Data

No of Shares (mn) 1200

Market Cap ( Rs bn) 282.30


52 week low (Rs) 211.05

6m avg Volume (NSE &BSE) 3.56 mn

Beta 0.98

Face value ( RS ) 5


Holder's Name


Jun2019


Mar2019

Change %

Promoter 60.67 60.67 0

FIIs 16.43 17.9 -1.47

Mutual Funds 3.01 2.86 0.15

Insurance Companies 0 0 0

Other DIIs 1.28 1.52 -0.24

Non Institutional Investors 18.61 17.05 1.56

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Biosimilar opportunity – Providing the edge for the company

The biologics segment (28% of FY19 in total revenues) includes biosimilars, encompassing Rh-insulin, insulin analogs,

monoclonal antibodies & recombinant proteins. The company has invested heavily in this space in the last two to three

years. The progress has been encouraging with approvals and launches in the US, EU, Japan, Australia and emerging

markets.

Biocon expects overall revenue growth momentum in biologics segment to continue in FY20 largely driven by new

launches and increase in the market share of existing products. Biocon expects higher growth in H2FY20, as few

launches are scheduled in H2. Key launches are Trastuzumab (bHerceptin) and Glargine in the US market.

Small molecules (32% of FY19 total revenue) comprise APIs like statins, immunosuppressants, specialty APIs & also

include generic formulations business. The company is exploring new opportunities but with higher profitability in this

segment. We expect the small molecules segment to grow higher from CAGR 13% CAGR.

The biologic segment (around 32% of revenue) grew by 96% YoY (up 9% QoQ), led by biosimilar Pegfilgrastim market

share gain in the US market coupled with robust sales of biosimilar Trastuzumab, Insulin Glargine and rh-Insulin in key

emerging markets in AFMET and LATAM regions.

Small molecule revenue stood at Rs480Cr growth of 20%YoY, largely driven by ramp-up in key APIs and a robust

performance of generic formulations business.

Conference Call Takeaways:

The company expects continued market share gain for Pegfilgrastim (currently ~20-21%) in the US market going ahead.

Bevacizumab and Insulin Aspart programs are on track.

It has received the certificate of GMP compliance from EMA for manufacturing Biologics drug product.

It expects to file Insulin Aspart by Q3/Q4CY19 in Europe and mid-CY20 in US. Bevacizumab will be filed in CY19 in US and

Q1/Q2CY20 in Europe.

It has initiated a Greenfield project at Vishakhapatnam, with an investment of Rs600Cr to secure its anticipated growth

in fermentation-derived APIs, including its strong portfolio of immunosuppresants.

In USFDA pre-approval inspection, Biocon Malaysia's facility has received 12 observations. However, the commercial

plans are on the track.

Ogivri, co-developed by Biocon and Mylan, was approved by Health Canada as the first biosimilar Trastuzumab

Key strengths and Investment rationale

Novel Biologis:

Biocon will ramp-up in market share of Pegfilgrastim in the US markets. The company is creating market leadership in

Innovation e.g., Insulin Tregopil, Itolizumab. Pipeline includes oral insulin; mAbs against targets like CD6, CD20 & EGFR;

bispecific fusion mAbs

It has potential to change the treatment paradigm in diabetes, immunology.

Strategic Partnership with Mylan for Biosimilars: Insulins & mAbs

The company is building a broader scale in broader participation in end to end development and commercialization with

a global leader in biosimilars. The investment by Biocon was touted as a strategic investment that would propel

Malaysia’s biotechnology industry to the next level as the first high-end bio-similar and biopharmaceutical

manufacturing and research and development facility.

Source: BSE

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Biocon Malaysia: Asia’s largest integrated insulins manufacturing facility

Biocon’s First Manufacturing expansion overseas in Iskandar, Johor with Investment of ~US$300 mn in the first phase.

The plant has received GMP certificate from EMA and NPRA, Malaysia Sales commenced in E.U. & Emerging Markets;

include OTA award by Ministry of Health – Malaysia.

Launch of Ogivri in the US market and rapid ramp-up in the market share.

BIOS expects revenue growth momentum to continue in FY20, led by strong traction in biologics segment

and small molecule segment. It has guided for gross R&D expenditure ~15% of revenue (ex-Syngene) in FY20, which will

be spend on biosimilars, new ANDA products and novel projects.

Company is planning to add incremental drug substance and drug product capacities across biosimilars

Business Metrics:

Q1FY20 FY19 FY18 YoY(%)

Total Revenue 1,465.00 5659 4336 30.51%

Total Expenses 1169 4639 3747 23.81%

Profit before Tax 313 1215 610 99.18%

Net Profit 206 905 372 143.28%

EPS(Basic) 1.74 7.65 3.155 142.47%

(Rs in Crores)

Key Financial Summary

Key Ratio FY19 FY18

Price/BV(X) 6.01 6.88

Enterprise Value(Cr) 38014.5 36717

Net Profit Margin(%) 18.16 10.47

ROE (%) 14.84 7.18

ROCE (%) 11.90 4.74

Key Risks Higher-than-expected competition in the biologics products

Delay in the approval/launch of biologics and unfavorable regulatory outcomes

Higher-than-expected pricing pressure in the small molecule business

Outlook & Valuation: Biocon’s growth is expected to be driven by biologics mainly on the back of new launches across developed markets

and geographical expansion in emerging markets and Syngene on the back of persistent clients’ addition. With better

visibility, the company has optically accelerated the scalability capex and R&D, which is likely to push related expenses

higher in the near term.

We recommend ‘BUY’ with our target price to Rs280 based on 27X Jun20 on account of robust earnings growth in EPS

which is likely to continue for next few years.

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Disclaimer

RATING PARAMETER

BUY We expect the stock to deliver more than 15% return over the next 12months

ACCUMULATE We expect the stock to deliver 6% - 15% return over the next 12months

REDUCE We expect the stock to deliver 0% - 5% return over the next 12months

SELL We expect the stock to deliver negative return over the next 12months NOTE: Target prices are for a period of 12-month perspective unless specified. Returns stated in the rating parameter are for our internal benchmark.

TECHNICAL CALL RATING PARAMETER

BUY: A condition that indicates a good time to buy a stock. The exact circumstances of the signal will be determined by the indicator that an analyst is using. SELL: A condition that indicates a good time to sell a stock. The exact circumstances of the signal will be determined by the indicator that an analyst is using. A recommendation to buy or sell stock when it trades at specified price. They serve to either protect your profits or limit your losses.

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the SEBI prescribed Combined Risk Disclosure Document (refer to SEBI website) prior to investing. Derivatives are a sophisticated investment device. The investor is

requested to take into consideration all the risk factors before actually trading in derivative contracts.

Peerless Securities Limited: Registered Office: Peerless Mansion, 1 Chowringhee Square, 2nd Floor, Kolkata 700069.

Telephone No.: 033 4050 2700, Fax No.: 033 2243 6941. Website: www.peerlesssec.co.in

SEBI Registration No: INZ000263738; AMFI Reg No: ARN 2103; NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-96-99,

DP ID: IN300958; SEBI Research Analyst Reg. No: INH300002365, CIN: U67120WB1995PLC067616

Compliance Officer: Mr. Raj Kumar Mukherjee. Call: 033-4050-2700, e-Mail: [email protected]

Our research should not be considered as an advertisement or advice, professional or otherwise. The investor is requested to take into consideration all the risk factors including their financial condition, suitability to risk return profile and the like and take professional advice before investing. Investments in securities are subject to market risk, please read all the related documents carefully before investing. Please read the SEBI prescribed Combined Risk Disclosure Document (refer to SEBI website) prior to investing. Derivatives are a sophisticated investment device. The investor is requested to take into consideration all the risk factors before actually trading in derivative contracts.

Compliance Officer: Mr. Raj Kumar Mukherjee. Call: 033-4050-2700, Email: [email protected]

Peerless Securities Limited Registered Office:

1, Chowringhee Square, 2nd Floor, Kolkata- 700 069

Phone: +91-33-4050-2700/2243-5942, Fax: +91-33-2243 6941

Institutional Office:

11-A, Mittal Towers, 1st floor, Nariman Point, Mumbai – 400 021

Phone: +91-22-2284 1411, 22-6630 3810, Fax: +91-22-2284 1316

September, 2019 Edition - Peerless Sec

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Transcript of September, 2019 Edition - Peerless Sec