![September 5, 2018 arXiv:1708.06019v3 [cs.NE] 10 Sep 2018](https://static.fdocuments.us/doc/165x107/61f011c5c049b65a811e01d8/september-5-2018-arxiv170806019v3-csne-10-sep-2018.jpg)
September 2018 - Microsoft...'12 Sep. '13 Sep. '14 Sep. '15 Sep. '16 Sep. '17 Sep. '18 Sales 10-year...
24
September 2018
Transcript of September 2018 - Microsoft...'12 Sep. '13 Sep. '14 Sep. '15 Sep. '16 Sep. '17 Sep. '18 Sales 10-year...
September 2018
Sales ease in September
After several months of stability, provincial sales eased by nearly eight per cent compared to last September. Slower activity this month was mostly driven by pullbacks in Edmonton and Calgary. Despite slower provincial sales, year-to-date activity has been improving in the regions of Fort McMurray, Grande Prairie and Red Deer.
The divergent activity in the housing market seem to be consistent with the employment recovery in the province. Job growth has struggled in the larger cities and southern part of the province. However, there have been general improvements in the regions of Red Deer, Wood Buffalo and Grande Prairie.
While the level of new listings coming on the market has eased, inventories remain elevated for this time of year resulting in persistent oversupply and downward pressure on prices. While most markets remain oversupplied, there have been notable improvements in both Grande Prairie and Fort McMurray. While both centres have seen reductions in the amount of oversupply, Grande Prairie is one of the few regions where activity is starting to resemble more typical levels, supporting some shifts to price recovery.
Sep. 18
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
SEPTEMBERALBERTA MONTHS OF SUPPLY AND PRICE CHANGES
Months of Inventory Trended Months of Inventory Y/Y Price ChangeSource: CREA
AREA Monthly Statistics 2
Alberta Summary Sep-17 Sep-18Year-over-Year % Change 2017 YTD 2018 YTD
Year-over-Year % Change
Total Sales 4,742 4,356 -8.14% 45,616 42,916 -5.92%Total Sales Volume $1,850,693,471 $1,677,326,959 -9.37% $18,274,907,108 $16,738,966,301 -8.40%New Listings 9,947 9,470 -4.80% 96,402 99,041 2.74%Inventory 32,943 36,064 9.47% 30,166 33,788 12.01%Months of Supply 6.95 8.28 19.17% 5.95 7.09 19.05%Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio 47.67 46.00 -1.67% 47.32 43.33 -3.99%Average Price $390,277 $385,061 -1.34% $400,625 $390,040 -2.64%
Sep. 18
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
ALBERTA AVERAGE PRICE AND PRICE CHANGE
Y/Y Change Trended Price Change Average Price Trended Average PriceSource: CREA
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
SALES AND INVENTORY
Sales Inventory Trended Sales Trended InventorySource: CREA
AREA Monthly Statistics 3
Sep. 18
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Sep.'08
Sep.'09
Sep.'10
Sep.'11
Sep.'12
Sep.'13
Sep.'14
Sep.'15
Sep.'16
Sep.'17
Sep.'18
ALBERTA TOTAL RESIDENTIAL SALES
Calgary Region Edmonton Region Alberta West Central AlbertaFort McMurray Grande Prairie Lethbridge LolydminsterMedicine Hat South Central Alberta 10 Year Average Source: CREA
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Sep.'08
Sep.'09
Sep.'10
Sep.'11
Sep.'12
Sep.'13
Sep.'14
Sep.'15
Sep.'16
Sep.'17
Sep.'18
ALBERTA TOTAL RESIDENTIAL INVENTORY
Calgary Region Edmonton Region Alberta West Central AlbertaFort McMurray Grande Prairie Lethbridge LolydminsterMedicine Hat South Central Alberta 10 Year Average Source: CREA
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Sep.'08
Sep.'09
Sep.'10
Sep.'11
Sep.'12
Sep.'13
Sep.'14
Sep.'15
Sep.'16
Sep.'17
Sep.'18
ALBERTA TOTAL RESIDENTIAL NEW LISTINGS
Calgary Region Edmonton Region Alberta West Central AlbertaFort McMurray Grande Prairie Lethbridge LolydminsterMedicine Hat South Central Alberta 10 Year Average Source: CREA
AREA Monthly Statistics 4
September 2018 Sales y/y % change
New Listings
y/y % change Inventory y/y %
changeMonths of Supply
y/y % change
Average Price
y/y % change
Sales to New Listings
Share of Sales Activity
Alberta West 117 0.00% 217 -3.98% 1,538 21.87% 13.15 21.87% 339,666 -1.47% 53.92 2.69%Calgary Region 1,654 -12.90% 3,858 -5.51% 10,818 13.85% 6.54 30.71% 451,700 -2.38% 42.87 37.97%Central Alberta 340 -2.30% 695 -8.67% 4,327 3.39% 12.73 5.83% 289,775 -4.77% 48.92 7.81%Edmonton Region 1,494 -7.09% 3,089 -8.91% 11,608 7.97% 7.77 16.21% 375,930 0.64% 48.37 34.30%Fort McMurray 89 11.25% 182 -18.02% 1,014 -12.81% 11.39 -21.63% 456,645 14.53% 48.90 2.04%Grande Prairie 248 17.54% 433 8.52% 1,805 -6.48% 7.28 -20.43% 320,744 9.71% 57.27 5.69%Lethbridge 177 -18.43% 433 38.78% 1,853 43.75% 10.47 76.24% 258,164 -4.78% 40.88 4.06%Lloydminster 50 -12.28% 105 -24.46% 742 -1.59% 14.84 12.19% 289,220 2.27% 47.62 1.15%Medicine Hat 95 -11.21% 221 4.25% 804 41.80% 8.46 59.71% 268,919 -8.50% 42.99 2.18%South Central Alberta 36 -7.69% 86 28.36% 526 0.19% 14.61 8.54% 215,869 1.59% 41.86 0.83%
Alberta 4,356 -8.14% 9,470 -4.80% 36,064 9.47% 8.28 19.17% 385,061 -1.34% 46.00
Sep. 18
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%TOTAL RESIDENTIAL PRICE CHANGE
Sep-17 Sep-18 Year-over-year price changeSource: CREA
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
MONTHS OF SUPPLY - TOTAL RESIDENTIAL
Sep-17 Sep-18 Months of Supply = Total inventory / SalesSource: CREA
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
AVERAGE PRICE COMPARISON
Sep-17 Sep-18 Months of Supply = Total inventory / SalesSource: CREA
AREA Monthly Statistics 5
Alberta West Sep-17 Sep-18 Year-over-Year % Change 2017 YTD 2018 YTD Year-over-Year %
ChangeTotal Sales 117 117 0.00% 996 987 -0.90%Total Sales Volume $40,334,975 $39,740,904 -1.47% $343,244,399 $334,190,241 -2.64%New Listings 226 217 -3.98% 2,423 2,429 0.25%Inventory 1,262 1,538 21.87% 1,209 1,303 7.77%Months of Supply 10.79 13.15 21.87% 10.93 11.88 8.75%Sales to New Listings Ratio 51.77 53.92 2.15% 41.11 40.63 -0.47%Average Price $344,743 $339,666 -1.47% $344,623 $338,592 -1.75%
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
AVERAGE PRICE AND PRICE CHANGE
Y/Y Change Trended Y/Y Change Average Price Trended Price Source: CREA
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
MONTHS OF SUPPLY AND SALES TO NEW LISTINGS RATIO
Months of Inventory Trended Months of Inventory Trended S/NL Source: CREA
Alberta WestStronger sales in the third quarter mostly offset declines occurring in the first half of the year, keeping sales activity just below last year’s levels. However, at the same time new listings remained just above last year’s levels keeping inventories elevated.
The persistent oversupply in the market has weighed on prices. In the third quarter prices have trended down compared to the previous quarter and both quarterly and year-to-date prices remain lower than levels recorded last year..
AREA Monthly Statistics 6
ALBERTA WEST SALES
ALBERTA WEST NEW LISTINGS
ALBERTA WEST INVENTORIES
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Sep.'08
Sep.'09
Sep.'10
Sep.'11
Sep.'12
Sep.'13
Sep.'14
Sep.'15
Sep.'16
Sep.'17
Sep.'18
Sales 10-year average Source: CREA
SEPTEMBER
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
YTD-2008
YTD-2009
YTD-2010
YTD-2011
YTD-2012
YTD-2013
YTD-2014
YTD-2015
YTD-2016
YTD-2017
YTD-2018
YTD Sales 10-year average Source: CREA
YTD-SEPTEMBER
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Sep.'08
Sep.'09
Sep.'10
Sep.'11
Sep.'12
Sep.'13
Sep.'14
Sep.'15
Sep.'16
Sep.'17
Sep.'18
New Listings 10-year average Source: CREA
SEPTEMBER
2,200
2,250
2,300
2,350
2,400
2,450
2,500
2,550
2,600
2,650
YTD-2008
YTD-2009
YTD-2010
YTD-2011
YTD-2012
YTD-2013
YTD-2014
YTD-2015
YTD-2016
YTD-2017
YTD-2018
YTD New Listings 10-year averageSource: CREA
YTD-SEPTEMBER
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Sep.'08
Sep.'09
Sep.'10
Sep.'11
Sep.'12
Sep.'13
Sep.'14
Sep.'15
Sep.'16
Sep.'17
Sep.'18
Inventory 10-year average Source: CREA
SEPTEMBER
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
YTD-2008
YTD-2009
YTD-2010
YTD-2011
YTD-2012
YTD-2013
YTD-2014
YTD-2015
YTD-2016
YTD-2017
YTD-2018
YTD Average Invnetory 10-year average Source: CREA
YTD-SEPTEMBER
AREA Monthly Statistics 7
Calgary Region Sep-17 Sep-18Year-over-Year % Change 2017 YTD 2018 YTD
Year-over-Year % Change
Total Sales 1,899 1,654 -12.90% 18,982 16,415 -13.52%Total $Volume $878,666,609 $747,111,311 -14.97% $8,929,961,531 $7,650,809,092 -14.32%New Listings 4,083 3,858 -5.51% 36,327 37,194 2.39%Inventory 9,502 10,818 13.85% 8,254 10,068 21.97%Months of Supply 5.00 6.54 30.71% 3.91 5.52 41.05%S/NL Ratio 46.51 42.87 -3.64% 52.25 44.13 -8.12%Average Price $462,700 $451,700 -2.38% $470,444 $466,086 -0.93%
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
AVERAGE PRICE AND PRICE CHANGE
Y/Y Change Trended Y/Y Change Average Price Trended Price Source: CREA
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
MONTHS OF SUPPLY AND SALES TO NEW LISTINGS RATIO
Months of Inventory Trended Months of Inventory Trended S/NL Source: CREA
Calgary Region
With a year-to-date decline of nearly 14 per cent, the Calgary area has recorded the largest pullback in sales when compared to other regions. Calgary continues to be plagued with high levels of unemployment and further job losses.
Meanwhile, supply continues to be slow to adjust to the new demand reality, leaving the market oversupplied and causing prices to trend down.
AREA Monthly Statistics 8
CALGARY REGION SALES
CALGARY REGION NEW LISITNGS
CALGARY REGION INVENTORY
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Sep.'08
Sep.'09
Sep.'10
Sep.'11
Sep.'12
Sep.'13
Sep.'14
Sep.'15
Sep.'16
Sep.'17
Sep.'18
Sales 10-year average Source: CREA
SEPTEMBER
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
YTD-2008
YTD-2009
YTD-2010
YTD-2011
YTD-2012
YTD-2013
YTD-2014
YTD-2015
YTD-2016
YTD-2017
YTD-2018
YTD Sales 10-year average Source: CREA
YTD-SEPTEMBER
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Sep.'08
Sep.'09
Sep.'10
Sep.'11
Sep.'12
Sep.'13
Sep.'14
Sep.'15
Sep.'16
Sep.'17
Sep.'18
New Listings 10-year average Source: CREA
SEPTEMBER
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
YTD-2008
YTD-2009
YTD-2010
YTD-2011
YTD-2012
YTD-2013
YTD-2014
YTD-2015
YTD-2016
YTD-2017
YTD-2018
YTD New Listings 10-year average Source: CREA
YTD-SEPTEMBER
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Sep.'08
Sep.'09
Sep.'10
Sep.'11
Sep.'12
Sep.'13
Sep.'14
Sep.'15
Sep.'16
Sep.'17
Sep.'18
Inventory 10-year average Source: CREA
SEPTEMBER
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
YTD-2008
YTD-2009
YTD-2010
YTD-2011
YTD-2012
YTD-2013
YTD-2014
YTD-2015
YTD-2016
YTD-2017
YTD-2018
YTD Average Invnetory 10-year averageSource: CREA
YTD-SEPTEMBER
AREA Monthly Statistics 9
Central Alberta Sep-17 Sep-18 Year-over-Year % Change 2017 YTD 2018 YTD Year-over-Year %
ChangeTotal Sales 348 340 -2.30% 3,047 3,146 3.25%Total $Volume $105,894,786 $98,523,500 -6.96% $952,748,409 $928,226,256 -2.57%New Listings 761 695 -8.67% 7,990 8,221 2.89%Inventory 4,185 4,327 3.39% 3,892 4,086 5.00%Months of Supply 12.03 12.73 5.83% 11.49 11.69 1.70%S/NL Ratio 45.73 48.92 3.19% 38.14 38.27 0.13%Average Price $304,295 $289,775 -4.77% $312,684 $295,050 -5.64%
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
AVERAGE PRICE AND PRICE CHANGE
Y/Y Change Trended Y/Y Change Average Price Trended Price Source: CREA
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
MONTHS OF SUPPLY AND SALES TO NEW LISTINGS RATIO
Months of Inventory Trended Months of Inventory Trended S/NL Source: CREA
Central Alberta
Sales activity in the Red Deer region improved in the third quarter compared to last year despite a slight pullback in September. Nonetheless, sales activity remains well below typical levels for the area.
New listings started to ease, slowing the growth in inventory levels. However, this market remains oversupplied and prices have been trending down albeit at a slower rate. Overall year-to-date average prices are nearly six per cent below levels recorded last year.
AREA Monthly Statistics 10
CENTRAL ALBERTA SALES
CENTRAL ALBERTA NEW LISTINGS
CENTRAL ALBERTA INVENTORY
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Sep.'08
Sep.'09
Sep.'10
Sep.'11
Sep.'12
Sep.'13
Sep.'14
Sep.'15
Sep.'16
Sep.'17
Sep.'18
Sales 10-year average Source: CREA
SEPTEMBER
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
YTD-2008
YTD-2009
YTD-2010
YTD-2011
YTD-2012
YTD-2013
YTD-2014
YTD-2015
YTD-2016
YTD-2017
YTD-2018
YTD Sales 10-year average Source: CREA
YTD-SEPTEMBER
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Sep.'08
Sep.'09
Sep.'10
Sep.'11
Sep.'12
Sep.'13
Sep.'14
Sep.'15
Sep.'16
Sep.'17
Sep.'18
New Listings 10-year average Source: CREA
SEPTEMBER
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
YTD-2008
YTD-2009
YTD-2010
YTD-2011
YTD-2012
YTD-2013
YTD-2014
YTD-2015
YTD-2016
YTD-2017
YTD-2018
YTD New Listings 10-year average Source: CREA
YTD-SEPTEMBER
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Sep.'08
Sep.'09
Sep.'10
Sep.'11
Sep.'12
Sep.'13
Sep.'14
Sep.'15
Sep.'16
Sep.'17
Sep.'18
Inventory 10-year average Source: CREA
SEPTEMBER
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
YTD-2008
YTD-2009
YTD-2010
YTD-2011
YTD-2012
YTD-2013
YTD-2014
YTD-2015
YTD-2016
YTD-2017
YTD-2018
YTD Average Invnetory 10-year averageSource: CREA
YTD-SEPTEMBER
AREA Monthly Statistics 11
Edmonton Region Sep-17 Sep-18 Year-over-Year % Change 2017 YTD 2018 YTD Year-over-Year %
ChangeTotal Sales 1,608 1,494 -7.09% 15,535 15,026 -3.28%Total $Volume $600,631,623 $561,639,458 -6.49% $5,941,511,125 $5,660,495,188 -4.73%New Listings 3,391 3,089 -8.91% 32,989 34,764 5.38%Inventory 10,751 11,608 7.97% 9,850 11,171 13.42%Months of Supply 6.69 7.77 16.21% 5.71 6.69 17.26%S/NL Ratio 47.42 48.37 0.95% 47.09 43.22 -3.87%Average Price $373,527 $375,930 0.64% $382,460 $376,713 -1.50%
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
AVERAGE PRICE AND PRICE CHANGE
Y/Y Change Trended Y/Y Change Average Price Trended Price Source: CREA
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
MONTHS OF SUPPLY AND SALES TO NEW LISTINGS RATIO
Months of Inventory Trended Months of Inventory Trended S/NL Source: CREA
Edmonton RegionSeptember sales eased by seven per cent, offsetting year-over-year improvements recorded over the past two months. However, new listings also trended down, preventing stronger gains in inventory levels. Nonetheless, the market has remained oversupplied and prices have trended down.
The labour market in Edmonton has been stronger than the Calgary market, however, recent developments have likely shaken some confidence in the region, impacting housing demand.
AREA Monthly Statistics 12
EDMONTON REGION SALES
EDMONTON REGION NEW LISTINGS
EDMONTON REGION INVENTORY
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Sep.'08
Sep.'09
Sep.'10
Sep.'11
Sep.'12
Sep.'13
Sep.'14
Sep.'15
Sep.'16
Sep.'17
Sep.'18
Sales 10-year average Source: CREA
SEPTEMBER
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
YTD-2008
YTD-2009
YTD-2010
YTD-2011
YTD-2012
YTD-2013
YTD-2014
YTD-2015
YTD-2016
YTD-2017
YTD-2018
YTD Sales 10-year average Source: CREA
YTD-SEPTEMBER
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Sep.'08
Sep.'09
Sep.'10
Sep.'11
Sep.'12
Sep.'13
Sep.'14
Sep.'15
Sep.'16
Sep.'17
Sep.'18
New Listings 10-year average Source: CREA
SEPTEMBER
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
YTD-2008
YTD-2009
YTD-2010
YTD-2011
YTD-2012
YTD-2013
YTD-2014
YTD-2015
YTD-2016
YTD-2017
YTD-2018
YTD New Listings 10-year average Source: CREA
YTD-SEPTEMBER
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Sep.'08
Sep.'09
Sep.'10
Sep.'11
Sep.'12
Sep.'13
Sep.'14
Sep.'15
Sep.'16
Sep.'17
Sep.'18
Inventory 10-year average Source: CREA
SEPTEMBER
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
YTD-2008
YTD-2009
YTD-2010
YTD-2011
YTD-2012
YTD-2013
YTD-2014
YTD-2015
YTD-2016
YTD-2017
YTD-2018
YTD Average Invnetory 10-year averageSource: CREA
YTD-SEPTEMBER
AREA Monthly Statistics 13
Fort McMurray Region Sep-17 Sep-18 Year-over-Year % Change 2017 YTD 2018 YTD Year-over-Year %
ChangeTotal Sales 80 89 11.25% 841 965 14.74%Total $Volume $31,896,730 $40,641,425 27.42% $360,303,449 $385,995,275 7.13%New Listings 222 182 -18.02% 2,477 2,015 -18.65%Inventory 1,163 1,014 -12.81% 1,118 984 -12.04%Months of Supply 14.54 11.39 -21.63% 11.97 9.18 -23.34%S/NL Ratio 36.04 48.90 12.87% 33.95 47.89 13.94%Average Price $398,709 $456,645 14.53% $428,423 $399,995 -6.64%
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
AVERAGE PRICE AND PRICE CHANGE
Y/Y Change Trended Y/Y Change Average Price Trended Price Source: CREA
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
MONTHS OF SUPPLY AND SALES TO NEW LISTINGS RATIO
Months of Inventory Trended Months of Inventory Trended S/NL Source: CREA
Fort McMurray Region
Sales activity in the region continue to improve over the low levels recorded during the past several years. At the same time, supply in the area is starting to adjust to the lower levels of sales as new listings eased enough to cause inventories to decline compared to last year.
The recent adjustments have helped reduce the amount of oversupply in the market, but it is not enough to prevent further price adjustments. Year-to-date average prices have eased by over six per cent this year and remain nearly 40 per cent below pre-recession highs.
AREA Monthly Statistics 14
FORT MCMURRAY SALES
FORT MCMURRAY NEW LISTINGS
FORT MCMURRAY INVENTORY
0
50
100
150
200
250
Sep.'08
Sep.'09
Sep.'10
Sep.'11
Sep.'12
Sep.'13
Sep.'14
Sep.'15
Sep.'16
Sep.'17
Sep.'18
Sales 10-year average Source: CREA
SEPTEMBER
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
YTD-2008
YTD-2009
YTD-2010
YTD-2011
YTD-2012
YTD-2013
YTD-2014
YTD-2015
YTD-2016
YTD-2017
YTD-2018
YTD Sales 10-year average Source: CREA
YTD-SEPTEMBER
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Sep.'08
Sep.'09
Sep.'10
Sep.'11
Sep.'12
Sep.'13
Sep.'14
Sep.'15
Sep.'16
Sep.'17
Sep.'18
New Listings 10-year average Source: CREA
SEPTEMBER
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
YTD-2008
YTD-2009
YTD-2010
YTD-2011
YTD-2012
YTD-2013
YTD-2014
YTD-2015
YTD-2016
YTD-2017
YTD-2018
YTD New Listings 10-year average Source: CREA
YTD-SEPTEMBER
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Sep.'08
Sep.'09
Sep.'10
Sep.'11
Sep.'12
Sep.'13
Sep.'14
Sep.'15
Sep.'16
Sep.'17
Sep.'18
Inventory 10-year average Source: CREA
SEPTEMBER
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
YTD-2008
YTD-2009
YTD-2010
YTD-2011
YTD-2012
YTD-2013
YTD-2014
YTD-2015
YTD-2016
YTD-2017
YTD-2018
YTD Average Invnetory 10-year average Source: CREA
YTD-SEPTEMBER
AREA Monthly Statistics 15
Grande Prairie Sep-17 Sep-18 Year-over-Year % Change 2017 YTD 2018 YTD Year-over-Year %
ChangeTotal Sales 211 248 17.54% 1,761 2,144 21.75%Total $Volume $61,685,612 $79,544,511 28.95% $523,261,783 $652,754,020 24.75%New Listings 399 433 8.52% 4,553 4,417 -2.99%Inventory 1,930 1,805 -6.48% 1,821 1,724 -5.34%Months of Supply 9.15 7.28 -20.43% 9.31 7.24 -22.25%S/NL Ratio 52.88 57.27 4.39% 38.68 48.54 9.86%Average Price $292,349 $320,744 9.71% $297,139 $304,456 2.46%
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
AVERAGE PRICE AND PRICE CHANGE
Y/Y Change Trended Y/Y Change Average Price Trended Price Source: CREA
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
MONTHS OF SUPPLY AND SALES TO NEW LISTINGS RATIO
Months of Inventory Trended Months of Inventory Trended S/NL Source: CREA
Grande Prairie Region
Sales activity in the region continue to improve reaching levels that are below record highs, but consistent with pre-recession activity. At the same time, new listings have generally been easing so far this year, causing inventories to decline and the market to shift towards more balanced conditions.
More balanced conditions have supported some price recovery in the market. On a year-to-date basis regional prices have improved by 2.5 per cent, narrowing the gap between price highs recorded in 2015.
AREA Monthly Statistics 16
GRANDE PRAIRIE SALES
GRANDE PRAIRIE NEW LISTINGS
GRANDE PRAIRIE INVENTORY
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Sep.'08
Sep.'09
Sep.'10
Sep.'11
Sep.'12
Sep.'13
Sep.'14
Sep.'15
Sep.'16
Sep.'17
Sep.'18
Sales 10-year average Source: CREA
SEPTEMBER
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
YTD-2008
YTD-2009
YTD-2010
YTD-2011
YTD-2012
YTD-2013
YTD-2014
YTD-2015
YTD-2016
YTD-2017
YTD-2018
YTD Sales 10-year average Source: CREA
YTD-SEPTEMBER
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Sep.'08
Sep.'09
Sep.'10
Sep.'11
Sep.'12
Sep.'13
Sep.'14
Sep.'15
Sep.'16
Sep.'17
Sep.'18
New Listings 10-year average Source: CREA
SEPTEMBER
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
YTD-2008
YTD-2009
YTD-2010
YTD-2011
YTD-2012
YTD-2013
YTD-2014
YTD-2015
YTD-2016
YTD-2017
YTD-2018
YTD New Listings 10-year average Source: CREA
YTD-SEPTEMBER
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Sep.'08
Sep.'09
Sep.'10
Sep.'11
Sep.'12
Sep.'13
Sep.'14
Sep.'15
Sep.'16
Sep.'17
Sep.'18
Inventory 10-year average Source: CREA
SEPTEMBER
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
YTD-2008
YTD-2009
YTD-2010
YTD-2011
YTD-2012
YTD-2013
YTD-2014
YTD-2015
YTD-2016
YTD-2017
YTD-2018
YTD Average Invnetory 10-year averageSource: CREA
YTD-SEPTEMBER
AREA Monthly Statistics 17
Lethbridge Sep-17 Sep-18 Year-over-Year % Change 2017 YTD 2018 YTD Year-over-Year %
ChangeTotal Sales 217 177 -18.43% 2,045 1,951 -4.60%Total $Volume $58,831,422 $45,695,100 -22.33% $553,902,124 $507,673,628 -8.35%New Listings 312 433 38.78% 3,867 4,058 4.94%Inventory 1,289 1,853 43.75% 1,260 1,513 20.13%Months of Supply 5.94 10.47 76.24% 5.54 6.98 25.92%S/NL Ratio 69.55 40.88 -28.67% 52.88 48.08 -4.81%Average Price $271,113 $258,164 -4.78% $270,857 $260,212 -3.93%
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
AVERAGE PRICE AND PRICE CHANGE
Y/Y Change Trended Y/Y Change Average Price Trended Price Source: CREA
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
MONTHS OF SUPPLY AND SALES TO NEW LISTINGS RATIO
Months of Inventory Trended Months of Inventory Trended S/NL Source: CREA
LethbridgeSales activity in the third quarter remained relatively consistent with activity recorded over the past four years. However, gains in new listings has caused inventory levels to rise causing persistent oversupply in the market.
Rising supply relative to sales activity has cause prices to ease. Year-to-date regional prices have decline by nearly four per cent compared to last years levels.
AREA Monthly Statistics 18
LETHBRIDGE SALES
LETHBRIDGE NEW LISTINGS
LETHBRIDGE INVENTORY
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Sep.'08
Sep.'09
Sep.'10
Sep.'11
Sep.'12
Sep.'13
Sep.'14
Sep.'15
Sep.'16
Sep.'17
Sep.'18
Sales 10-year average Source: CREA
SEPTEMBER
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
YTD-2008
YTD-2009
YTD-2010
YTD-2011
YTD-2012
YTD-2013
YTD-2014
YTD-2015
YTD-2016
YTD-2017
YTD-2018
YTD Sales 10-year average Source: CREA
YTD-SEPTEMBER
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Sep.'08
Sep.'09
Sep.'10
Sep.'11
Sep.'12
Sep.'13
Sep.'14
Sep.'15
Sep.'16
Sep.'17
Sep.'18
New Listings 10-year average Source: CREA
SEPTEMBER
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
YTD-2008
YTD-2009
YTD-2010
YTD-2011
YTD-2012
YTD-2013
YTD-2014
YTD-2015
YTD-2016
YTD-2017
YTD-2018
YTD New Listings 10-year average Source: CREA
YTD-SEPTEMBER
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Sep.'08
Sep.'09
Sep.'10
Sep.'11
Sep.'12
Sep.'13
Sep.'14
Sep.'15
Sep.'16
Sep.'17
Sep.'18
Inventory 10-year average Source: CREA
SEPTEMBER
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
YTD-2008
YTD-2009
YTD-2010
YTD-2011
YTD-2012
YTD-2013
YTD-2014
YTD-2015
YTD-2016
YTD-2017
YTD-2018
YTD Average Invnetory 10-year average Source: CREA
YTD-SEPTEMBER
AREA Monthly Statistics 19
Medicine Hat Sep-17 Sep-18 Year-over-Year % Change 2017 YTD 2018 YTD Year-over-Year %
ChangeTotal Sales 107 95 -11.21% 1,090 979 -10.18%Total $Volume $31,448,514 $25,547,350 -18.76% $297,243,108 $270,139,478 -9.12%New Listings 212 221 4.25% 1,884 2,002 6.26%Inventory 567 804 41.80% 553 608 10.03%Months of Supply 5.30 8.46 59.71% 4.57 5.59 22.50%S/NL Ratio 50.47 42.99 -7.49% 57.86 48.90 -8.95%Average Price $293,911 $268,919 -8.50% $272,700 $275,934 1.19%
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
AVERAGE PRICE AND PRICE CHANGE
Y/Y Change Trended Y/Y Change Average Price Trended Price Source: CREA
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
MONTHS OF SUPPLY AND SALES TO NEW LISTINGS RATIO
Months of Inventory Trended Months of Inventory Trended S/NL Source: CREA
Medicine Hat
Easing sales activity combined with rising new listings have cause inventories in the area to rise. Rising inventories compared to last year have been occurring for the past five months and has started to weigh on prices.
Quarterly average prices have trended down over the past two quarters. However, the declines have not been enough to offset previous gains. As a result, year-to-date average prices remain just above last year’s levels.
AREA Monthly Statistics 22
MEDICINE HAT SALES
MEDICINE HAT NEW LISTINGS
MEDICINE HAT INVENTORY
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Sep.'08
Sep.'09
Sep.'10
Sep.'11
Sep.'12
Sep.'13
Sep.'14
Sep.'15
Sep.'16
Sep.'17
Sep.'18
Sales 10-year average Source: CREA
SEPTEMBER
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
YTD-2008
YTD-2009
YTD-2010
YTD-2011
YTD-2012
YTD-2013
YTD-2014
YTD-2015
YTD-2016
YTD-2017
YTD-2018
YTD Sales 10-year average Source: CREA
YTD-SEPTEMBER
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Sep.'08
Sep.'09
Sep.'10
Sep.'11
Sep.'12
Sep.'13
Sep.'14
Sep.'15
Sep.'16
Sep.'17
Sep.'18
New Listings Source: CREA
SEPTEMBER
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
YTD-2008
YTD-2009
YTD-2010
YTD-2011
YTD-2012
YTD-2013
YTD-2014
YTD-2015
YTD-2016
YTD-2017
YTD-2018
YTD New Listings Source: CREA
YTD-SEPTEMBER
0100200300400500600700800900
1,000
Sep.'08
Sep.'09
Sep.'10
Sep.'11
Sep.'12
Sep.'13
Sep.'14
Sep.'15
Sep.'16
Sep.'17
Sep.'18
Inventory 10-year average Source: CREA
SEPTEMBER
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
YTD-2008
YTD-2009
YTD-2010
YTD-2011
YTD-2012
YTD-2013
YTD-2014
YTD-2015
YTD-2016
YTD-2017
YTD-2018
YTD Average Invnetory Source: CREA
YTD-SEPTEMBER
AREA Monthly Statistics 23
South Central Alberta Sep-17 Sep-18 Year-over-Year % Change 2017 YTD 2018 YTD Year-over-Year %
ChangeTotal Sales 39 36 -7.69% 314 290 -7.64%Total $Volume $8,287,500 $7,771,300 -6.23% $64,035,350 $58,747,353 -8.26%New Listings 67 86 28.36% 816 875 7.23%Inventory 525 526 0.19% 492 497 1.04%Months of Supply 13.46 14.61 8.54% 14.11 15.43 9.40%S/NL Ratio 58.21 41.86 -16.35% 38.48 33.14 -5.34%Average Price $212,500 $215,869 1.59% $203,934 $202,577 -0.67%
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
AVERAGE PRICE AND PRICE CHANGE
Y/Y Change Trended Y/Y Change Average Price Trended Price Source: CREA
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
MONTHS OF SUPPLY AND SALES TO NEW LISTINGS RATIO
Months of Inventory Trended Months of Inventory Trended S/NL Source: CREA
South Central Alberta Region
Sales in the region remain comparable to levels recorded since the recession. At the same time new listings have been on the rise causing inventory gains and oversupply in the market. This has prevented any movements towards price recovery in the area.
AREA Monthly Statistics 24
SOUTH CENTRAL ALBERTA SALES
SOUTH CENTRAL ALBERTA NEW LISTINGS
SOUTH CENTRAL ALBERTA INVENTORY
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Sep.'08
Sep.'09
Sep.'10
Sep.'11
Sep.'12
Sep.'13
Sep.'14
Sep.'15
Sep.'16
Sep.'17
Sep.'18
Sales 10-year average Source: CREA
SEPTEMBER
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
YTD-2008
YTD-2009
YTD-2010
YTD-2011
YTD-2012
YTD-2013
YTD-2014
YTD-2015
YTD-2016
YTD-2017
YTD-2018
YTD Sales 10-year average Source: CREA
YTD-SEPTEMBER
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Sep.'08
Sep.'09
Sep.'10
Sep.'11
Sep.'12
Sep.'13
Sep.'14
Sep.'15
Sep.'16
Sep.'17
Sep.'18
New Listings 10-year average Source: CREA
SEPTEMBER
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
YTD-2008
YTD-2009
YTD-2010
YTD-2011
YTD-2012
YTD-2013
YTD-2014
YTD-2015
YTD-2016
YTD-2017
YTD-2018
YTD New Listings 10-year average Source: CREA
YTD-SEPTEMBER
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Sep.'08
Sep.'09
Sep.'10
Sep.'11
Sep.'12
Sep.'13
Sep.'14
Sep.'15
Sep.'16
Sep.'17
Sep.'18
Inventory 10-year average Source: CREA
SEPTEMBER
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
YTD-2008
YTD-2009
YTD-2010
YTD-2011
YTD-2012
YTD-2013
YTD-2014
YTD-2015
YTD-2016
YTD-2017
YTD-2018
YTD Average Invnetory 10-year averageSource: CREA
YTD-SEPTEMBER
AREA Monthly Statistics 25
ABOUT AREA
The AREA represents more than 10,000 REALTORS® and 10 real estate Boards/Associations province-wide and provides worldclass leadership that positively shapes the Alberta real estate profession, enhances member professionalism, and reinforces the critical value REALTORS® deliver to both buyers and sellers.
Board & Association Information
The Grande Prairie & Area Association of REALTORS® represents more than 240 REALTORS® located in Grande Prairie and across the Peace Region. All MLS® listings processed by the Board can be found on the national public web site www.grandeprairie-mls.ca
The Fort McMurray REALTORS® are a member service organization made up of approximately 200 real estate members consisting of Brokers, Associate Brokers and Associates. The Board also has 12 Affiliate members providing support and service to the real estate industry. Our trading area includes the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo and the Lac LaBiche County. For more information please go to www.fmreb.com
Alberta West REALTORS® Association represents 174 real estate industry professionals in various communities throughout West Central Alberta. For more information please go to www.abwra.com
The REALTORS® Association of Edmonton is a professional services association comprised of over 3,200 Brokers and Associates serving the greater Edmonton area. For more information please go to www.ereb.com
The REALTORS® of Lloydminster and District is comprised of approximately 100 REALTORS® located in offices in Lloydminster as well as the surrounding communities of Wainwright and VermilionFor more information please go to www.rald.realtyserver.com
The Central Alberta REALTORS® Association is a professional trade organization, whose members are licensed Real Estate professionals. Our membership currently includes more than 650 real estate brokers and agents working across Central Alberta.For more information please go to www.carassociation.ca
The Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB®) is a professional association of over 5,200 licensed REALTORS® across the Calgary region. As one of the largest real estate boards in Canada, CREB® provides members with essential resources to enhance professionalism, advance the industry’s development and enrich the communities they serve. For more information please go towww.creb.com
The Lethbridge and District Association of REALTORS® is a member service organization made up of 294 real estate members consisting of Brokers, Associate Brokers and Associates. The Board also has 39 Contract Subscribers who are Appraisers, Home Inspectors, Builders, and Mortgage Brokers. For more information please go to www.ldar.ca
The Medicine Hat Real Estate Board was chartered in 1955 and serves the 140 local REALTORS®, in eleven brokerages, which provide real estate brokerage services to buyers and sellers of all types of property - residential, commercial, industrial and farm/ranch. For more information please go to www.mhreb.ca
REPORTING REGIONS* Data is collected and reported by each board, then aggregated by the Canadian Real Estate Association. Detailed information regarding how the data is aggregated should be directed to either the Specific Board or CREA.
The average price information listed can be useful in establishing trends over time, but do not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods, or account for price differentials between geographical area
Comments [email protected]
AREA Monthly Statistics 26
