Sensitivity of flight durations to uncertainties in numerical weather predictions · 2017. 5....
Transcript of Sensitivity of flight durations to uncertainties in numerical weather predictions · 2017. 5....
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© Crown copyright Met Office
Sensitivity of flight durations to uncertainties in numerical weather predictionsJacob Cheung1, Jean-Louis Brenguier2 , Jaap Heijstek3, Adri Marsman3 and Helen Wells1
1 Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom2 Météo France, 42 Avenue Gaspard Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse Cedex 1 ,France3National Aerospace Laboratory (NLR), Anthony Fokkerweg 2, 1059 CM Amsterdam, Netherlands
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The IMET Project (SESAR WP-E)
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Investigation of the Optimal Approach for Future Trajectory Prediction Systems to Use METeorological Uncertainty Information
Aim - To design and demonstrate the benefits of a probabilistic/ensemble
trajectory prediction system
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Table of Contents
• Overview of 3D/4D trajectory flight planning
• Current: deterministic trajectory prediction
• What is an ensemble meteorological (MET) forecast?
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forecast?
• Future: ensemble trajectory prediction
• Experimental methods
• Results
• Summary
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Flight planning: 3D trajectory
(lat, lon, alt)
2. Further conflicts might occur here due to decision made by ATC upstream
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1. Conflict?-> ATC resolves
(lat, lon, alt)
(lat, lon, alt)
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Flight planning: 4D trajectory
(lat, lon, alt) + time
No induced conflicts
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Knows well in advance there will be no conflict
(lat, lon, alt) + time
(lat, lon, alt) + time
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Notes on 4D trajectory requirements
• Predict the location and time in advance (subject to some error)
• Knowing the error of prediction is highly beneficial
• Major source of uncertainty is predictability of weather
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• Major source of uncertainty is predictability of weather
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Why is existing TP not good for 4D trajectory planning
Deterministic forecast Deterministic trajectoryTP
Problem with current trajectory prediction
• Flight planning based on single set of wind and temperature forecast
• Bad forecasts could lead to e.g. re-routing, increase fuel costs and pressure on ATC
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Error in wind/temp forecast
-> Error in flight time prediction
-> ATC still has to step in and resolve
RealityTP with no estimation of likelihood (deterministic)
• Bad forecasts could lead to e.g. re-routing, increase fuel costs and pressure on ATC
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Weather as a chaotic system
State of weather in future predicted by deterministic
forecast
Small initial error
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TimeTrue state of current weather
True state of
weather in future
Best estimate of current state of weather
Rapidly evolves into large forecast error!
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Forecast
uncertainty
Initial condition with uncertainty
State of weather in future
predicted by deterministic forecast
Estimating MET uncertainty:
Ensemble MET Forecast
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Time
uncertainty
Ensemble Forecasts
True state of current weather
True state of
weather in future
Best estimate of current state of weather
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Ensemble TP
Ensemble Ensemble
Statistical
characteristics
TP
TP
TP
Deterministic forecast Deterministic trajectoryTP
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Ensemble
forecast
Ensemble
trajectories
characteristics
of ensemble
trajectories
TP
TP
TP
Advantages- Provides an estimate of uncertainty in flight time, path taken, etc
- Ensemble forecast models are physical models designed to capture MET uncertainty -> favourable compared to a pure stochastic approach
- Can use existing TP to generate the ensemble trajectories
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Experimental methods
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Ensemble Numerical Weather Prediction Model
• Horizontal resolution: ~33km
• Run at 00, 06, 12, 18Z daily
The Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS)
© Crown copyright Met Office
• Run at 00, 06, 12, 18Z daily
• 12 ensemble members
• Designed to represent MET uncertainty up to 2 days ahead, coinciding with the timescale of flight planning
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Experimental Method
LFPG
• Fixed eastbound route from KJFK to LFPG
• Fixed Mach: 0.82
• Fixed level: FL340 (~250hPa)
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LFPG
KJFK
• Fixed level: FL340 (~250hPa)
• Test period: 1st May 2013 to 30th April 2014
• Simple speed formulae using wind and temperature
• MET data interpolated on to the route to calculate the flight time for each ensemble member
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Results
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Time series of ensemble mean
ground speed along route
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Distance
travelled
along
route
Time / Forecast Range (Hours)
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Understanding the x-axis
Time : UTC time
Forecast range: how far ahead you are
looking into the future
For a forecast issued at 18UTC, a
forecast range of t+24 will be referring to
18UTC the next day
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Distance
travelled
along
route
Time
Forecast Range (Hours)
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Understanding the y-axis
Freeze time, travel along trajectory
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Distance
travelled
along
route
Time / Forecast Range (Hours)
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In reality, time evolves as you
travel along trajectory
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Distance
travelled
along
route
Time / Forecast Range
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LegendContour : Ensemble mean ground speed [m/s]
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LegendContour : Ensemble mean ground speed [m/s]
© Crown copyright Met Office
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LegendContour : Ensemble mean ground speed [m/s]
Blue arrow: Flight time uncertainty [mins] for aircraft taking off at 09:00 (t+15)
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LegendContour : Ensemble mean ground speed [m/s]
Blue arrow: Flight time uncertainty [mins] for aircraft taking off at HH:MM
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Title Forecast issued at 18Z,on day before
Forecast update issued at 06Z, on the day
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on the day
Forecast update issued at 18Z, on the day
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Title
Same take off time (2013-09-24 00Z), different forecast range
Forecast issued 30 hoursbefore take off time
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Forecast issued 18 hours before take off time
Forecast issued at 6 hours before take off time
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Title
© Crown copyright Met OfficeHigh MET Uncertainty Low MET Uncertainty
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Title
Forecast issued X hours before take off (i.e.
forecast range)
• No seasonal dependence• Flight time uncertainty increases with forecast range
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Summary
• The impact of MET uncertainty on flight duration have been studied for a fixed
route from KJFK to LFPG
• For the forecast range considered (up to 2 days ahead), the impact is
significantly different between days of high and low MET uncertainties
• but small compared to the total flight time.
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• but small compared to the total flight time.
• Uncertainty is smaller if a more recent forecast is used
• Our results show no strong seasonal variation
Next step
• Allow full TP to run to generate an ensemble of trajectories
-> Spread of flight times
-> Geospatial spread
• Adverse weather
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Questions and answers
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Slow but certain
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Fast but uncertain
Uncertainty
A B